GBPUSD - Risk On Hedge Short

1. Okt.

Ok so I am short here GBPUSD as I think this may be quite a significant top here.

Notice similar to dollar inverted that is has tapped into oversold on the week chart.

Also notice that it has hit a very similar RSI as the previous top.

RSI tends to rhyme so this is signalling higher chance of a pivot in this area.

It has also breached the blue 500 week MA.

It has only done this twice since the 2008 collapse; in 2009 and 2014.

On both occasions it immedietly rejected into a sharp downtrend (see chart below).

So this should be an area of heavy resistance.

The trend up from the base appears to be a wonky 5 wave move.

The first 2 waves extend to capture current price within a weak 1:0.618 Golden Window.

And then wave 3 and 4 extend to capture current price within a balanced 1:1 Golden Window.

So in terms of ratio this area is higher probability for a major reversal.

The whole trend has been steadily shallowing to the upside and this may be a sign of weakness.

So there are many alignments signalling that a significant top may be in this area.

This trade is nice hedge against risk on I think.

Because it is bullish dollar.

And if risk on slumps while dollar bounces then this trade can do well.

I haven't set any targets yet as first I would like to see if it becomes impulsive to the downside.

I have opened a position here and may add more on bounces 👀.

2009, 2014 500WMA rejections:


Dollar:


Not advice

4. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

The week candle is soon to close and the body has engulfed the previous 2 candles.

So this effectively is a bearish Evening Star pattern.

This is our first high time bearish price action to suggest that momentum is swinging to the downside.

The candle pattern in combination with the other factors that we looked at previously suggest that the downtrend may have some legs 🏃‍♂️.

8. Okt.

Anmerkung

This trade is looking really good so far.

There has been no bounce at all as yet...

And if this can slip into another wave down then this trend may have long legs 👀.

16. Okt.

Anmerkung

GBPUSD

Notice the little weak whip upwards into a tame upper wick followed by the dump.

That's a confirmed bull trap shakeout pattern.

The limpness of the whip up followed by fast downside impulse tells us that this is likely to be a big move happening here.

And this is the next wave down.

I added to my position here 👍.

16. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

GBPUSD

Thats a very big and bearish engulfing candle on the 3 week chart with 2 days until close.

If it continues at this pace then a Golden Window retracement could be on.

That would mean it would collapse all the way down to $1.14 😯😳.

16. Okt.

Anmerkung

Don't forget to BOOST if you like this 👍.

31. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

Quite a lot of whipsaw today in dollar related currencies as Non-Farm Employment data was reported.

GBP is now pushing down and it would appear that the whipsaw has completed a rising 3 wave correction.

Notice how the rising trajectory is in opposition to the long descending trend.

This is signalling that this is a higher time frame correction completing.

And now a bearish engulf is in process it would appear to be further signalling that a correction is complete.

If this now moves beyond the low then we can expect another higher time frame wave down.

This is a reasonable place to top up here and if you prefer a stop loss for tight control it can go a little above the 3 wave peak.

This trend is starting to look very bearish 👍.

31. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

GBPUSD

Wow 😮, enormous dump today and if you topped up as described yesterday then profits are stacking up.

The monthly candle is going to be a bearish monster and this looks set to go all the way to $1.144 💣.

Reasonable chance it will re-test resistance and if an upper wicked candle prints there, that would be a reasonable place to add a short position.

I have set an alert on resistance 👀.