GBPUSD: Now we have confirmation for my stupid short idea...

FX:GBPUSD   Britisches Pfund / US-Dollar
The technical chart has confirmed a weekly downtrend in the Pound as I expected, and despite being trailed out in profit, I'm looking to reenter shorts with force at market open, with a significant position size, aiming to risk 0.5-1% if the idea fails.

In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...
The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the $GBPUSD pair.
Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have:
  • 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally.
  • 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event.

A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades.

Good luck!

Ivan Labrie
Kommentar: Well, I was right, shame I didn't reenter last week, the opportunity is gone, and my broker still closed.


Trade ist aktiv: The retrace here is a good excuse to start shorting, initial size should be 0.04 lots every 10k usd in your account, stop 1.2272 or more conservative at 1.2386.

I think we will have good continuation here.
Kommentar: It's a bit uncertain in the short term, although a daily rally closer to weekly resistance would give a better short entry.
My instinct tells me: this week, do squat...the action is pure and utter rubbish, only manipulation during a thin market.
Kommentar: One thing: did price drop or not before? (it dropped) So the immediate technical signal was correct, problem is the market overreacted to a leaked speech apparently. Can the weekly downtrend pan out still? Yes, unless we go above 1.23854, so, better wait and look to short on weakness after this week.
Kommentar: Notice how we reversed against the weekly downtrend mode...I'd wait until next week, or until Friday to enter any trade though.
Well I hope you do not get burned. My longs across all GBP are doing very good. This was just a deal to run all the stops. My opinion....but we will see later today.
IvanLabrie RobbyWestHouston
@RobbyWestHouston, well, certainly, I didn't lose much if at all. I'm flat, I see this as irrational volatility surrounding a thin market and pending news this week. I don't understand your fundamental view on it, but well, good luck.
@IvanLabrie, All bad news is priced in. Europe has the most to lose with Brexit not UK. UK is doing better then Europe / EU. Logic would say buy GBP and sell EUR. Any news to drop GBP is just a really good R:R entry for longs. Each time GBP moves down it is smaller and smaller. That is why I am long. Market is saying Long GBP
IvanLabrie RobbyWestHouston
@RobbyWestHouston, I don't see why you'd buy GBP...with Euros is a different thing.
I'd short $EURGBP eventually, but not long $GBPUSD.
You're a bit biased perhaps, living in the UK (I guess).
@IvanLabrie, I am in Texas...USA... 30+ years doing this stuff I have learn how to cut out all the BS and Fake news and look at facts. I see the sell on GBP because of Brexit... the big loser in that is not GBP it is EUR. Market has it wrong... Their is some move down on GBP but it is too over done... EUR has to go down alot and GBP has to go up alot. That is my read on why GBP moved down on Brexit.

I just read it different than you. That is all. No big deal. Most import thing is we both make money from it. You got the last push down right! I did not see that. You did... In my book that makes you a +++. You saw something I did not see. Why I watch what you do. Sometime I agree with you and sometime I do not...
IvanLabrie RobbyWestHouston
@RobbyWestHouston, yes, definitely important to read between the lines. Sometimes trades make me uneasy, I like taking them when they do. A shame I didn't reenter last Friday for that last push down but well.
I was under the impression you were british, my bad.
Thanks for the comments as usual, always good to discuss with fellow traders.
@IvanLabrie, I am here to make money. I will never close my mind to a idea because the second you do is when you will start losing money! Always haft to keep a open mind about this crap. I agree with what you do about 70% of the time. You could still be right here! This deal is not over with yet. You will be wrong when GBPUSD is above 1.26 or GBPJPY is above 144/145. I would say you are wrong. For now I still consider your idea alive tho I disagree with it.

Anyways, stay on the + side daily Ivan!!! We all have our opinions...
IvanLabrie RobbyWestHouston
@RobbyWestHouston, yes, I'm focusing more on things that are making sense and trading nicely, like $USDMXN and $USDTRY now...or BTC and ETH plays. (I bought some GBTC on the lows) Alpha, tasty.
@IvanLabrie, I am in the USA and dodd - frank the crappiest deal EVER and that most stupid idea has put the margins up so high that I can not play with usdmxn or usdtry but those are VERY GOOD pairs to be playing with!
IvanLabrie RobbyWestHouston
@RobbyWestHouston, definitely, I have no problems with those...TD Ameritrade or IB are ok with them.
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