Which direction wud be the pain for market? Play Call Spread!
GBPUSD has been trading in a slowly tightenning, but still wide range, also within a tightenning triangle. The volatility dropped a bit lately.
In fact it is a neutral, choppy period. Good for range traders, not for trend traders. But ranges break at some point. Trend traders have to watch for the triangle break. Will it be a bearish continuation? Or can we see a dramatic short squeeze after breaking on top side? no one knows. I have a feeling, that the market pain would be the way up. Simply because market has built massive short GBP positions getting closer to the Brexit vote. I think most of the possible initial shock that could happen in case of leaving the EU has already been priced in.
Now simply thinking in odds, we do not have to wait until Brexit vote. What if suddenly a poll brings out gain of "NO" voters? The market would start hedging into their short GBP and probably options hedgers would also look to buy some delta hedge. That could force a spike and break above key 1,4350-1,4400.
A short covering would drive it up to bearish weekly support ard 1,4650, but before the exact vote I doubt much higher. Unless "NO's" really gain in trend.
Obviously it is gambling to guess here with unlimited risk. No one on Earth knows which direction will it finally break. Only thing I see on the time scale is that the breakout will have to happen latest in mid-end May.
For now I still wait with outright positions, but as I look at the weekly chart, haDelta/SMA3 and the theory described above suggest me playing somehow the upper break with limited risk makes more sense. Solution? CALL OPTIONS or CALL SPREADS!
I prefer buying into 1,46 / 1,50 June Call spread.
(Note: expiry of both options leg is before Brexit vote. July is simply too expensive due to super high implied volatility around vote date. There I fear we'd suffer relevant Theta hit on position in case market keeps trading sideaways for too long)
In fact it is a neutral, choppy period. Good for range traders, not for trend traders. But ranges break at some point. Trend traders have to watch for the triangle break. Will it be a bearish continuation? Or can we see a dramatic short squeeze after breaking on top side? no one knows. I have a feeling, that the market pain would be the way up. Simply because market has built massive short GBP positions getting closer to the Brexit vote. I think most of the possible initial shock that could happen in case of leaving the EU has already been priced in.
Now simply thinking in odds, we do not have to wait until Brexit vote. What if suddenly a poll brings out gain of "NO" voters? The market would start hedging into their short GBP and probably options hedgers would also look to buy some delta hedge. That could force a spike and break above key 1,4350-1,4400.
A short covering would drive it up to bearish weekly support ard 1,4650, but before the exact vote I doubt much higher. Unless "NO's" really gain in trend.
Obviously it is gambling to guess here with unlimited risk. No one on Earth knows which direction will it finally break. Only thing I see on the time scale is that the breakout will have to happen latest in mid-end May.
For now I still wait with outright positions, but as I look at the weekly chart, haDelta/SMA3 and the theory described above suggest me playing somehow the upper break with limited risk makes more sense. Solution? CALL OPTIONS or CALL SPREADS!
I prefer buying into 1,46 / 1,50 June Call spread.
(Note: expiry of both options leg is before Brexit vote. July is simply too expensive due to super high implied volatility around vote date. There I fear we'd suffer relevant Theta hit on position in case market keeps trading sideaways for too long)
