GBPJPY Wave (iii) Lower - 186.30 key level

The pivot lower in the GBPJPY has been on the back burner as the EURUSD collapsed last week. It appears we have a leading diagonal lower in circle '1' that began on the Friday October 23 high. Coincidentally, we are showing Oct 23 as the highest volume day in over 5 years for the GBPJPY.

If circle wave '3' finished at today's low, then a small bounce higher is likely to be contained below 185.

The higher probability scenario is what I have labeled on the chart. That is to say we are in the beginning stages of wave (iii) lower that may carry us towards 178 and possibly lower to 173.

Retail sentiment is positioned at -1.3 so it is not extreme in either direction. If we see volume pick up and/or retail sentiment show up as buyers then that could add more fuel to the bearish fire.

Good luck and happy trading!