UPDATE #2 SHORT ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Catching some pips down

A lot of updates on this pair, huh? Well, with this kind of price action, there's much to update about. Following up on my last post (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE #1 SHORT ANALYSIS: EURUSD: Catching some pips down"), I said that prices would get down to what is now the D point of the triangle pattern that is forming and has now established the lower TL of that triangle. The Gartley was filled and the PRZ of that Gartley was tested and so far has held. There is now some bullish price action showing.....BUT....

I am not yet willing to go with a LONG position for the ride back up the the top TL and what would be the Leg E of the triangle JUST YET. I will need to see this D point become CONFIRMED before I would decide to take the LONG. So what would that confirmation look like for me?

See that "minor sr structure" line I had drawn onto the chart awhile ago? Well, that "minor" sr structure line has had ELEVEN TOUCHES dating back to where I have it originating back in August 10 of this year! So why do I still call it "minor" ? Maybe I need to change it! Regardless of whether it is a minor or MAJOR sr, it has been relevant in the recent and the far past. And it should continue to play a part in the future. In fact, it may play a part here in the very near future. If you see on my chart. IF prices get back up to that zone (remember, just 'coz it's a line here, DOES NOT mean that exact price is the structure! It's a ZONE), then it may reject prices there sending it back down a little back towards the lower TL and then should rise again. IF it does this, then that will establish a possible wave a of the E leg with the retrace back down to the lower TL being a wave b of the leg E. This kind of price action would CONFIRM the D point of the triangle and firmly establish that this is indeed a triangle forming. It will also confirm that prices would go up to fill that E leg.

It is at that point that I would take a LONG position for a ride up the E leg. I'll be watching for this price action.....BTW, if prices do follow the path I just laid out, then it would form a POTENTIAL bat pattern you see on my chart (green). But that is NOT any kind of pattern right now! It is ONLY A STUDY! It is not to be traded upon in any way, shape or form for now.

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Kommentar:

I just wanted t o follow up on this post even though it is no longer valid. The completed bullish Gartley was invalidated as prices broke below its' X point. But as I said in my post, I would not take any trade until I saw confirming price action as illustrated in my post.

This is a good lesson as to why it is so very important to watch the PA BEFORE you take action and initiate a trade and not just take a trade just because a pattern had completed. By waiting for confirming PA to go long, I avoided taking a bad trade that would've cost me pips unnecessarily. .