EURUSD: soon oversold?
During the previous week there has not been too much significant data published for both EUR and USD. However, an important event is related to the news that Saudi Arabia decided to prolong its decision on decreased oil production of 1 million barrels on a monthly basis till the end of this year. Another negative news was related to a 10% surge in gas prices within the EU due to a general strike in the gas production facility in Australia. Both decisions were not perceived well by the markets, as they could imply a further inflation increase in both EU and US economies.
When it comes to officially published macro data for the US, it has been revealed that the ISM Services PMI was standing at 54.5 in August, higher from previous month`s 52.7. Euro Area GDP Growth for Q2 as per 3rd estimate was 0.1% q/q, down from 0.3% estimated by the market. At the same time its yearly Q2 estimate was standing at 0.5% which was a modest drop from market forecast of 0.6%. These figures confirm that the EU economy is continuing to slow down. Inflation in Germany in August reached 6.1% on a yearly basis, which is a modest decrease from 6.2% in July.
USD continued to strengthen against the Euro during the previous week. Although the currency pair started the week around 1.08 level, it soon reached the lowest weekly level at 1.068. RSI went down to the level of 33, quite close to the clear oversold side of the market. This could also imply a potential for a short term reversal in the coming period. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days continue to move as two parallel lines, without a clear indication of a potential cross in the coming period.
During the previous week a channel where the currency pair was moving since the beginning of this year was broken to the downside. The currency pair headed toward the short term resistance line at 1.067, where it ended the week. Testing of this level might continue through the week ahead. A short reversal to the upside might lead eurusd up to the resistance line at 1.08, but at this moment there is no indication on charts that the price might move higher from this level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September for the Euro Zone and Germany, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference
USD: Inflation Rate for August, PPI for August, Retail Sales for August, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for September
When it comes to officially published macro data for the US, it has been revealed that the ISM Services PMI was standing at 54.5 in August, higher from previous month`s 52.7. Euro Area GDP Growth for Q2 as per 3rd estimate was 0.1% q/q, down from 0.3% estimated by the market. At the same time its yearly Q2 estimate was standing at 0.5% which was a modest drop from market forecast of 0.6%. These figures confirm that the EU economy is continuing to slow down. Inflation in Germany in August reached 6.1% on a yearly basis, which is a modest decrease from 6.2% in July.
USD continued to strengthen against the Euro during the previous week. Although the currency pair started the week around 1.08 level, it soon reached the lowest weekly level at 1.068. RSI went down to the level of 33, quite close to the clear oversold side of the market. This could also imply a potential for a short term reversal in the coming period. Moving averages of 50 and 200 days continue to move as two parallel lines, without a clear indication of a potential cross in the coming period.
During the previous week a channel where the currency pair was moving since the beginning of this year was broken to the downside. The currency pair headed toward the short term resistance line at 1.067, where it ended the week. Testing of this level might continue through the week ahead. A short reversal to the upside might lead eurusd up to the resistance line at 1.08, but at this moment there is no indication on charts that the price might move higher from this level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
Euro: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for September for the Euro Zone and Germany, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference
USD: Inflation Rate for August, PPI for August, Retail Sales for August, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for September
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