NZDUSD: WAVE ANALYSIS

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The main focus today will be on the New Zealand dollar and the upcoming monetary policy announcement. Three weeks ago, the Reserve Bank held a special economic assessment update where they said "further policy easing will be required." The strong currency is making it incredibly difficult to reach their inflation target and the central bank made it very clear that additional action needs to be taken to stop inflation from falling. In response to their July 20th assessment, economists have rushed to adjust their forecasts with many calling for 2 more rate cuts before the end of the year and some even targeting 75bp of easing. Since then the value of AUD/NZD has been roughly the same but NZD/USD is up more than 1.5% so there's been no relief from the pressure created by the strong exchange rate. This argues for a 25bp cut with a hint of more to come or 50bp of easing.
Consumer spending is weaker and job ads are fewer but business and consumer confidence improved and the business PMI index ticked upwards. Commodity prices, food prices and the Global Dairy Trade index are also on the rise while house prices remained firmed. The strong housing market is one of the main factors preventing a more aggressive move from the RBNZ.
New Zealand's economy hasn't weakened enough to warrant more than 25bp rate cut but the exchange rate, which is their primary cause for concern has only strengthened. If the RBNZ wants to be proactive, they could send a strong message to the market with a 50bp cut but we believe they will go for a 25bp point move (to avoid invigorating the housing market) with a warning of more to come.

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BULLISH FLAG IN DEVELOPMENT?

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DAILY CHART (PATTERN)

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