1. Context (背景分析): The overall structure remains bearish. After a significant 45% drawdown from the major top, the price is now entering a consolidation phase. (整體結構維持看跌。在從大頭部回落約 45% 後，價格目前進入盤整階段。)
2. The Logic of Scales (規模邏輯): Technically, the current consolidation base is much smaller than the previous distribution top. Therefore, the probability of a "V-shape" recovery to new highs is relatively low at this stage. (從技術面來看，目前的整理區間規模遠小於先前的派發頭部。因此，現階段要出現 V 轉並創下新高的機率並不高。)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4MLXgSc3/
3. The Opportunity (機會點): However, a short-term rebound (Relief Rally) is highly probable. We are looking for a mean reversion play as the selling pressure shows signs of exhaustion in the local range. *(然而，短期內的**反彈（緩解式上漲）*是非常有可能的。隨著局部區間的拋壓顯現疲態，我們正在尋找一個均值回歸的交易機會。)
4. Execution & Risk (執行與風險): Since this is a counter-trend trade, I will keep my targets realistic and my stop loss tight. Trading with zero pressure by focusing on the process, not the outcome. (由於這是一筆逆勢交易，我會保持務實的獲利目標並嚴格設置止損。專注於過程而非結果，保持零壓力的交易狀態。)
5.Execution & Risk Management (執行與風險控管): Since we are trading a rebound underneath a major topping structure, we are naturally exposed to higher risks. Therefore, my position sizing will be more conservative than usual.
Signal: A high-volume breakout signal appeared on Dec 29, 00:00.
Maximum Risk (Hard Stop): 6.5% at $2774. This is the invalidation point for the entire local structure.
Short-term Risk: ~3% at $2888. This level provides a tighter exit for a high-precision setup.
6.Profit Targets (獲利目標)
I am looking for high-probability targets to ensure a positive expectancy:
Primary Target: The Previous High (Local resistance).
Secondary Target: Based on a 1:3 Risk/Reward Ratio. (獲利目標看向前高或是滿足 1:3 的盈虧比。)
2. The Logic of Scales (規模邏輯): Technically, the current consolidation base is much smaller than the previous distribution top. Therefore, the probability of a "V-shape" recovery to new highs is relatively low at this stage. (從技術面來看，目前的整理區間規模遠小於先前的派發頭部。因此，現階段要出現 V 轉並創下新高的機率並不高。)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4MLXgSc3/
3. The Opportunity (機會點): However, a short-term rebound (Relief Rally) is highly probable. We are looking for a mean reversion play as the selling pressure shows signs of exhaustion in the local range. *(然而，短期內的**反彈（緩解式上漲）*是非常有可能的。隨著局部區間的拋壓顯現疲態，我們正在尋找一個均值回歸的交易機會。)
4. Execution & Risk (執行與風險): Since this is a counter-trend trade, I will keep my targets realistic and my stop loss tight. Trading with zero pressure by focusing on the process, not the outcome. (由於這是一筆逆勢交易，我會保持務實的獲利目標並嚴格設置止損。專注於過程而非結果，保持零壓力的交易狀態。)
5.Execution & Risk Management (執行與風險控管): Since we are trading a rebound underneath a major topping structure, we are naturally exposed to higher risks. Therefore, my position sizing will be more conservative than usual.
Signal: A high-volume breakout signal appeared on Dec 29, 00:00.
Maximum Risk (Hard Stop): 6.5% at $2774. This is the invalidation point for the entire local structure.
Short-term Risk: ~3% at $2888. This level provides a tighter exit for a high-precision setup.
6.Profit Targets (獲利目標)
I am looking for high-probability targets to ensure a positive expectancy:
Primary Target: The Previous High (Local resistance).
Secondary Target: Based on a 1:3 Risk/Reward Ratio. (獲利目標看向前高或是滿足 1:3 的盈虧比。)
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.