SP futures (ES): very important inflection point (4850 or 4350?)

ES is at at very important inflection point. As part of the larger count I have been tracking to get to 4850, the only way to get there now is as a diagonal for the last wave up. As a diagonal, it should be 3 waves (black abc) count. If price undercuts the (b) support box and gets below 4611, it already may be in a third wave down that ultimately targets around 4400 (red count). 140 points up vs 311 down...