ES1!/SPY: Quick update

I guess I have to jump in and give an update seeing that this did not go according to plan.

So recap, probability was pretty convincing we see a move to 408.
However, if you watched my Monday update video, I was pretty bearish for Fed meeting.

My ideal setup was 408 hit Monday and we happily tank into Fed testimony.

The setup we got: Fall short of 408 and horrendously tank into Fed testimony.

So what now?

I really don't know. But the most damning thing that Powell said that has me a bit concerned was "We are going to have to be more aggressive than anticipated". Not a cute look and its obviously not sitting well with the market.

That said, there are still some bullish signs. What I am seeing is this:

1. Currently, ES1! and an intra-day 99% around 3998.
2. Yesterday I plotted out the current uptrend SPY was in and has been in since around September ish of 2022. Plotting that out in SPSS gave us a range of 418 - 397 with the ideal current TP at 408. In these situations its best to take a trade on the extreme end of the range, so either long at 397 or short at 418. BUT, we did tank down to 398/397 and kind of have just been chillin there. For you visual peeps like me, here is the trend:


3. IWM has now fallen outside of its swing range and also has a minimum hi 92% level at around 192.
4. We had pretty convincing probabilities on the weekly that have been completely ignored by the market.



So is it a long?

No. These are just my observations but please rest assured I am not advancing a long thesis or bias here. With the fed volatility and the onslaught of negative catalysts and the fact that, as of right now, the market has shown no intention to follow through with the high probability range, its really not a smart call to be over zealous in any direction. I don't want to shill any direction because I really am not certain with these fed meeting wild cards that have thrown a huge wrench in the week. The weeks that the probabilities and math fails are generally weeks that are packed with major catalysts or a major event that with a not anticipated result (i.e. COVID, feds going from "We are looking at potentially suspending rate hikes" to, not even 1 week later "we are going to have to be more aggressive than anticipated"). And unfortunately, without these things, I am pretty at a loss with what to expect. Especially because, imo, the news being released is sort of new, its sort of not what the market wanted to hear. I know many operate under the assumption that we already knew what was said, but for me its "mmmmmm... did we?... did we really know that the feds wanted to be more aggressive than 0.25 to 0.5? And what does that even mean? It sounds like an idle threat..." You know? Lots of things to contemplate.

But yeah, I am sorry, in my not so infinite wisdom I am really at a loss and really sad that this hasn't worked out according to plan. I suppose we will see what happens next.
But in the meantime, the intra-day ranges to watch for ES1! are in the chart above.
Please everyone, trade safe!
And if you are sick and tired of SPY, consider trading AMD or XOM, those are my playlist for tomorrow. ES/SPY and I need some time apart. Irreconcilable differences so to speak.


Safe trades everyone!