The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is a crowded trade.

16. Sept.

Since inception bitcoin had the following pattern:
- 3 years bull market (Green area), 1 year bear market (Red area)
- 3 years bull market (Green area), 1 year bear market (Red area)
- 3 years bull market (Green area), 1 year bear market (Red area)

The Bitcoin post halving pump is a crowded trade.

We posit that the last 4 year cycle will be the reverse.

1 year bull market followed by a 3 years bear market.

Note:
This thesis is the 16 year market cycle theory. The Dotcom Bubble had a similar 16 year cycle. It is also part of a larger 51.6 years cycle theory.

8. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

This theory will be over if bitcoin manages to go > 74K.

So far it hasn't.

30. Okt.

Trade ist aktiv

The theory will be invalidate if there is a new All Time High and March 2024 is not the macro ATH.

31. Okt.

Anmerkung

Bitcoin reachec 73,620 on Binance on Oct 20, 2024. The March 2024 ATH was 73,777. So Bitcoin was within $156 to invalidate this theory.

7. Nov.

Trade geschlossen: Stop wurde erreicht

This thesis is dead.

Trump got elected and let's pump everything!!