btc short term update

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
222 5
Having fallen through the 440/445 support area and the long dated upper slopping trendline which is the blue line piercing through the chart, price quickly retraced back above 440 where it found resistance at the 38.6% retracement level + Daily Pivot + 50Dsma which is the red line seen in the chart.

Finding it difficult to hold this pivot is bearish enough without looking much further, I was however hoping to pile on the shorts closer to the 61.8% + R1 pivot so I sit patiently waiting for more clarity.

I have taken 50% off from my short when price double bottomed on the 4hr and showed bullish divergence on the hourly near 433.

The blue line next to the S1 Pivot is the 100Dsma so I am setting my eyes on this to cover another 50% or cover the entire position if I cannot poach any more shorts higher above.

One strategy would be to enter at market if price closes on the Daily chart below the current Daily Pivot with a tight stop above around 445 but this would need to be done after the Daily closes as it is still too early and price could rally to my intended short area at the 61.8%.

On the bullish side I really don't have one so I'm not interested to entertain one since price is now making lower highs and lower lows but I do have stops above 460 "just in case".

Good Luck
Kommentar: Quick update: Price is forming what is known as a "W" bottom but not confirmed yet, I have circled examples on the chart below. Volume is low and if price moves back above 440 see the empty circle far right of the chart I will exit my remaining 50% short and wait to either short at 446 or allow price to create another opportunity.

What we need to see now is price continue down with conviction and volume to avoid creating a double bottom "W" pattern or show strength to the upside for a possible retest of the highs, at the moment I remain alert for volatility to pick up.

Good Luck

no one had ever so do not count on law BB he always comes in waves down !!!!!
However, the CNY exchange are still holding the long-term support.
Thanks for taking the time to explain your reasoning in such a clear manner. What makes you believe that the price will not drop significantly more?
BTCMarket luckyluke
Again from above we are making lower lows and lower highs = bearish. We fell through the long dated trendline = bearish. We are currently at the 38.2% retracement which is a very shallow correction normally you would expect at minimum the 50% again bearish, however as Bitcoin tends to make very long drawn out consolidation moves I tend to look at what happens at the daily close.

Therefore I am very interested in the daily closes over the coming days.

Basically we have been spending a great deal of time trying to overcome 470 which hasn't happened and the current correction for me is not significant enough to create a larger base with which to attempt a rally above 470. The majority of the time the market is in consolidation and only a small portion of the time in a trend the trend has been broken so I look for a base to be formed much lower.

Only if price got above 460+ would I consider the market turning bullish the current bounce should only be seen as corrective and an opportunity to short.
luckyluke BTCMarket
Thanks again. I agree with you that the next two days will most likely show the direction for the next week. In my opinion, first another significant leg down before going sideways for a while.
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