BTC - Still in Danger
Just wanted to lay out the bearish scenario. The bullish scenario remains in tact. As soon as BTC closes a 3D candle above 71.3k the should be the signal for new all time highs and the continuation of the bull market. Refer to this post for that analysis: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/9mInKO7a-BTC-Most-Important-Level-Identified/
But because this has not happened yet there is still room for downside. This would also coincide with a potential drop in the stock market before the election as well as lead to perfect timing of our 4 year cycle theory which we made a post about all the way back in October 2022. This shows if we continue to follow this pattern we will not see a full on break of our previous ATH until around November of 2024. That analysis can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/ESq28sk9-BTC-4-Yr-Cycle-Bottom-Top-Dates/
Our current weekly candle just closed as a doji which could signal a reversal of our recent push to the upside. A few scenarios I could see playing out if we are not able to close above 71.3k and have another move to the downside first.
The first scenario would be a fall back to our first lower white line around $60-62k which could create some sort of right shoulder based on candle closes and form an inverse head & shoulders on the weekly to break us above our previous ATH.
The second scenario would be a much lower drop to either the
48K zone or the 
52K zone which would create some sort of massive megaphone pattern (similar to covid) before we see the break above ATH.
Everything is still aligned for an explosive bull market after the election, but until then it is important to be aware of the potential downside to prepare for before that. The confidence for the next leg of the bull market starting will again be when BTC closes a 3D candle above 71.3k.
But because this has not happened yet there is still room for downside. This would also coincide with a potential drop in the stock market before the election as well as lead to perfect timing of our 4 year cycle theory which we made a post about all the way back in October 2022. This shows if we continue to follow this pattern we will not see a full on break of our previous ATH until around November of 2024. That analysis can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/ESq28sk9-BTC-4-Yr-Cycle-Bottom-Top-Dates/
Our current weekly candle just closed as a doji which could signal a reversal of our recent push to the upside. A few scenarios I could see playing out if we are not able to close above 71.3k and have another move to the downside first.
The first scenario would be a fall back to our first lower white line around $60-62k which could create some sort of right shoulder based on candle closes and form an inverse head & shoulders on the weekly to break us above our previous ATH.
The second scenario would be a much lower drop to either the
48K zone or the 52K zone which would create some sort of massive megaphone pattern (similar to covid) before we see the break above ATH. Everything is still aligned for an explosive bull market after the election, but until then it is important to be aware of the potential downside to prepare for before that. The confidence for the next leg of the bull market starting will again be when BTC closes a 3D candle above 71.3k.
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