Haceru
Long

BTC - is the correction done?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I think so ... what a beautiful Fib series on the daily chart , starting on the 29th of November and ending on the 1st of February. In November, BTC             left the long term up-trend channel to form a small bubble on a hype before Christmas and now is back into the same channel exactly two months after. In the meanwhile, the number of days with either down or "consolidation" periods are very nice Fibonacci numbers 1,3,5,8,11 and now 13. Not to mention the "perfect" levels of $5555, $7888, $19666, $9222 that marked reversals / end of line points.

I believe we are now at the end of this 13 days cycle, just waiting for another "perfect" number as end of the line; a couple of hours ago I thought $9333 was that number, since it ended a 4h candle but the market had a little bit of a different opinion so will see what the actual level will be.

As always, please do your own due diligence, this is not trading / investing advise, just some thoughts about what is going on in this amazing realm of crypto-currencies. Good luck and thank you for looking at my ideas.
Kommentar: Since I think is very important, I will repeat a comment from a previous idea, just in case:

"kids don`t try this at home" kind of super-warning: finding the bottom is beyond extremely super risky business, I could say is outright gambling. So, trading / initiating / closing positions at bottoms and or tops is from TA perspective mission impossible. However, if anyone looks for holding / investing, those dips are like gold mines, as long as you are confident the underlying market / asset is going up; and I mean long to very long term like months even years.

The key in all those investments is money management: always use money you will never regret losing and out of this money, only use 5% to 10% max to initiate such a long position. If it pays out, in the long term you gain a lot. If things go south, 5% out of something you won`t regret anyway ... is just like enjoying a coffee :)
Kommentar: on the fundamental side-note, what a nice "continuation" of Davos we have today from the EU Commission:
"Encouraging governments, European industry and citizens to benefit from blockchain opportunities" they say:
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-521_en.htm
Kommentar: How about $8455 as the "perfect" number for the dip? on previous ideas I was "guessing" either $8666 or $8444 but hey, I`ll take $8455 as well... as a note, this level is just a small pinch through the 0.786 Fib level of $8575 so it would make perfect sense
Kommentar: On the more technical side and lesser guessing side, the weekly chart shows a perfect meeting point between the today`s low, the 30 EMA and the 0.786 Fib level. Also, the RSI sits conveniently at about 50, meaning flat as well as the DIs meeting. ADX is still well above 25 so BTC is still in a very strong uptrend on the long term
snapshot
Kommentar: Absolutely beautiful ... fractal modelling at its best:
snapshot
Seems $8455 was not perfect enough for BTC so it decided to go into the second buy / demand area starting at $7900-ish. Let`s see where will it find the end of the line
Kommentar: A little bit off-topic (or actually not so much), for those of you who like Monte Carlo simulations here is a very interesting article about the possible distribution of the BTC price by year-end 2018:
https://medium.com/@xoelop/weve-simulated-the-bitcoin-price-for-the-whole-2018-you-won-t-believe-the-result-4a602679dac2
Kommentar: As it happened before, Asia dumped ... Europe dumped ... and now the US is buying the dip. For the moment it seems we stopped at 7625.25 and the price bounced immediately back above the 0.786 Fib level of $8575 ... let`s see what next
Trade geschlossen: Ziel wurde erreicht: Nothing much to add here, as expected the market cooled off and now it follows a consolidation period. How long, remains to be seen. Difficult to predict the range of price bounces but an educated guess would be between the 0.618 and 0.786 Fib levels. Anything like a symmetrical triangle, H&S can be expected.
I will close this idea, since I do believe this was the end of the down movement and the market reset itself.
Good luck all and thanks for looking at my ideas.
We have probably reached the bottom, right? Daily RSI is now on our side and it looks like that 200 SMA has created resistance zone to 7k, any thoughts?
Antworten
Haceru Samppa290
@Samppa290, honestly ... I knew from before that guessing a bottom is mission impossible, no matter what the indicators might be saying because in the end the market can change it`s mind a few days latter. With crypto ... is even more difficult, because we don`t know exactly the players, their power distribution and their level of sensibility to political / media FUD / hype. I "guessed" three bottoms so far, all being invalidated by a further decline ... so ... :)
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Haceru Samppa290
@Samppa290, if we are indeed looking at a bottom, then we have this possible scenario:
snapshot
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@london55555 you were right to look for the lows around $7900-ish; great call
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@Haceru, Thank you . Even a blind squirrel etc etc LOL
+1 Antworten
7.5k will give support if not 5k
+1 Antworten
Haceru ghose12
@ghose12, it should ... if we go below, we are looking at a major trend reversal for BTC. The RSI on the weekly will turn bearish, something that didn`t happen in more than 2 years
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BTC will probably fall to 6K or lower, this is only my opinion.
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Haceru Samppa290
@Samppa290, while this is perfectly possible, I doubt it will happen short term; maybe after a re-test of the higher limit of the down channel but even so I think for the moment is far fetched. The market and all the major players that just started to jump in (like governments, tax authorities, etc.) need this realm to grow. $6000 now would be a long term reversal of the entire crypto eco-system, triggering a crash that won`t help anyone. Just my opinion as well :)
+2 Antworten
Haceru Samppa290
@Samppa290, you were closer to it than me ... let`s see if this $6600 holds or we go lower; thanks for commenting
+1 Antworten
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