Ok, so first of all I think I've wrongly counted the Elliott waves; what I've first thought to be a failed bullish impulse wave was in fact the A wave of an ABCDE triangle wave; cause the initial ABC didn't confirm. Now we're reaching the end of the E wave. Here we're in a dilemma.
The triangle is not exactly flat, neither ascending. We can consider it symmetrical if the E wave will end up considerably above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (~$6950), but if not, it should be still a descending triangle.
So we may have either a break up to $7500 (where we hit a strong resistance and big chances are to retrace down), or (I would say with 60% chances) break down fast, following a ABC wave with first target at $6000. I would say this would be what follows, but it's just an opinion.
The problem is that now it's pure gambling. The volume is still very low, the market is not decided, and the whales could chose any of these scenarios.
Since there was pretty much FUD in the air, and even whales did lose some money recently by placing high ask orders that didn't confirm the uptrend, I am still kinda bearish; but it might be a trick. The confluence zone between $6700 and $6500 and the shallow uptrend channel we're in are hard to cross down, they've been a strong support until now.
The triangle is not exactly flat, neither ascending. We can consider it symmetrical if the E wave will end up considerably above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (~$6950), but if not, it should be still a descending triangle.
So we may have either a break up to $7500 (where we hit a strong resistance and big chances are to retrace down), or (I would say with 60% chances) break down fast, following a ABC wave with first target at $6000. I would say this would be what follows, but it's just an opinion.
The problem is that now it's pure gambling. The volume is still very low, the market is not decided, and the whales could chose any of these scenarios.
Since there was pretty much FUD in the air, and even whales did lose some money recently by placing high ask orders that didn't confirm the uptrend, I am still kinda bearish; but it might be a trick. The confluence zone between $6700 and $6500 and the shallow uptrend channel we're in are hard to cross down, they've been a strong support until now.
Kommentar:
Two short liquidations on Okcoin, but volume didn't increase enough to pierce the upper line of the triangle. Might very well be a bull trap. It seems that wave E will end either on 0.5 Fib retrace of the A wave, or 0.618 of wave C; if so, that would say we have a descending triangle. Wave E should forcibly retrace down; let's see if it sinks below the lower line of the triangle, there is HUGE support at $6600 and $6500.
Kommentar:
Descending triangle seems to be the good guess, so we would go down. Note that the shallow uptrend channel we were ranging in was aligned to the trend line of all time minima (light grey , top of the channel). The base of the triangle (lower line of the channel) was quite supportive until now, and if if will fall, also $6600 and $6500 strong support lines will be in the way. There is also a grey trend line of the recent minima before reaching $6000; if this line will not become supportive on the long range, things are not good for BTC.
And here is the updated wave chart:
www.tradingview.com/chart/oPMBbAfp/
And here is the updated wave chart:
www.tradingview.com/chart/oPMBbAfp/
Kommentar:
A more clear fall has happened, after going sideways for a while.
Bear cross happened on the MACD. I think we will eventually go down, but I don't expect the fall to be spectacular. It will be in small chunks, stopped on various support levels, maybe with small retracements upwards between support levels that would become resistance. When the downtrend channel will be clear, trading will be possible, with low gains, but not too much to worry about. Worries would come if the $6000 level will be clearly broken; that could lead even whales to panic.
Bear cross happened on the MACD. I think we will eventually go down, but I don't expect the fall to be spectacular. It will be in small chunks, stopped on various support levels, maybe with small retracements upwards between support levels that would become resistance. When the downtrend channel will be clear, trading will be possible, with low gains, but not too much to worry about. Worries would come if the $6000 level will be clearly broken; that could lead even whales to panic.
Kommentar:
Well finally the triangle was symetrical. As I was saying before, whales are controlling the price now that the regular volume is low. Whales liquidated a lot of shorts (they were largely accumulated) and pushed towards $7500 strong resistance crossing 2 pretty strong resistances like nothing. This is the 1st wave of an impulse wave. Let's see if the top of the uptrend channel holds and we retrace there (stay in the same range) or test the $7500 resistance. I will follow with new update once retracement happens. Wave 3 *should* be traded! And even wave 5, which should be the most bullish; IF the downtrend line of the maxima will be crossed, this might be a long time reversal!
Kommentar:
So the lower line of the triangle was not the lower line of the uptrend channel, it was more uptrendish; that was hard to see. Anyway such a huge liquidation of shorts was hard to predict, most TAs missed it; whales play the game. I should have studied the BTCUSDSHORTS chart more attentively. Now most of the shorts accumulated in March and April are liquidated!
However beware, if this pump doesn't form a flag and goes back to the pole rise level, it might be a huge bull trap, not an Elliott wave. You might want to take a look at this, he says it much better than I would:
I will come with update if I get any clue.
However beware, if this pump doesn't form a flag and goes back to the pole rise level, it might be a huge bull trap, not an Elliott wave. You might want to take a look at this, he says it much better than I would:
I will come with update if I get any clue.
