Bearish Retrace?
Essentially the same chart as the last one I posted because we've been chopping and it's important to maintain medium-long term perspective. We have some confirmations to go off of now. Three blue lines: ATH Log resistance, Nov-6k Suppport (held so far), Sept-6k Support (broken and confirmed as resistance).
1: Bounced off daily BBand (golden circles). We briefly pierced it, but have now started to fall back. Every time we've done this in the bear we've gone down a significant amount.
2: Daily stoch RSI cross (yellow arrows). Similarly, these crosses in the overbought region have not been good signs for the bulls throughout this bear market.
3: Hidden bear div on the daily (white).
4: Log support-turned-resistance. Again, we just came back and confirmed it as support - turned - resistance. That's bad, and could be a classic throwback pattern where we break a significant level (out of the large triangle this support and ATH resistance forms), go back to test it, and then turn around and REALLY move lower.
There isn't much hopium for bulls on the daily chart. However, it's worth mentioning that the first three things I mentioned have been bad signs throughout the bear market. I would wager that one of those will be invalidated / inconsequential if we're really starting to be at the end of the overall bear market. So the hope for the bulls is that even in the face of all these bearish things we move up again very soon and test/cross the ATH resistance. That'd obviously be a very bullish sign imo. I don't think it's likely.
In gray, I've given three possible outcomes I see as fairly likely. In the first, and most bullish, we find support somewhere in the 7k range to consolidate a bit over a longer time frame, giving the daily stoch some time to reset before making a push at the log ATH resistance when it's a bit lower and try to break up out of the triangle formed by ATH resistance and October support (less steep one that has held so far). In the second, we fall back to again test the Nov-6k Support line. If we manage to bounce, it'd likely result in the same situation as the first. Note that both of these don't require us to reclaim that Sept-6k support line as the log ATH line will cross it this Friday.
But as everyone has been saying, if we break through the Nov-6k support it's bad news.
1: Bounced off daily BBand (golden circles). We briefly pierced it, but have now started to fall back. Every time we've done this in the bear we've gone down a significant amount.
2: Daily stoch RSI cross (yellow arrows). Similarly, these crosses in the overbought region have not been good signs for the bulls throughout this bear market.
3: Hidden bear div on the daily (white).
4: Log support-turned-resistance. Again, we just came back and confirmed it as support - turned - resistance. That's bad, and could be a classic throwback pattern where we break a significant level (out of the large triangle this support and ATH resistance forms), go back to test it, and then turn around and REALLY move lower.
There isn't much hopium for bulls on the daily chart. However, it's worth mentioning that the first three things I mentioned have been bad signs throughout the bear market. I would wager that one of those will be invalidated / inconsequential if we're really starting to be at the end of the overall bear market. So the hope for the bulls is that even in the face of all these bearish things we move up again very soon and test/cross the ATH resistance. That'd obviously be a very bullish sign imo. I don't think it's likely.
In gray, I've given three possible outcomes I see as fairly likely. In the first, and most bullish, we find support somewhere in the 7k range to consolidate a bit over a longer time frame, giving the daily stoch some time to reset before making a push at the log ATH resistance when it's a bit lower and try to break up out of the triangle formed by ATH resistance and October support (less steep one that has held so far). In the second, we fall back to again test the Nov-6k Support line. If we manage to bounce, it'd likely result in the same situation as the first. Note that both of these don't require us to reclaim that Sept-6k support line as the log ATH line will cross it this Friday.
But as everyone has been saying, if we break through the Nov-6k support it's bad news.
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