BTC - undertand demand vs supply battle on Bitcoin now!
Aktualisiert
I see so many people bullish on BTC right now, but what demand and supply are telling us? Let's see!
First of all, it's really important to understant that the price is going to where big players want it to go,
not where you would like it to go. Current price action shows us some interesting information about where
BTC whales want it to go:
1 bold gree arrow: bulls entered the market showing demand and not letting price go lower.
3 bold red arrows: bears entered the market showing supply and not letting price go higher.
This arrows point to Initiative moves (big volume + vertical price action) which usually means that
big players are fighting for this levels and not lwtting price action break the support/resistance.
The thin green arrows show how price moves higher with small volume (which shows lack of demand). This
action shows that there is no big players interested in higher prices. (volume = big player)
The thin red arrows show how price moved fast (vertically) with high volume once prices threaten breaking
resistances (which shows we still have supply in this levels). This action also shows how big players
aren't interested in higher prices.
Today demand is even smaller and the price isn't showing any true signal of going higher. I'm currently bearish
but with a small short position opened. I'm waiting for another pump action to reach some supply again to
increase my position. The perfect scenario for me would be price moving as high as 7700 usd, breaking
current local high and the supply entering the market showing who is in charge of the action. This is
the level where I'm looking to increase my short position. I'm setting a stop-loss close to 7900, which
gives me a really good R:R. This scenario would make me more sure of my position showing that
there is still supply at the red box and that the price isn't going to go higher.
First of all, it's really important to understant that the price is going to where big players want it to go,
not where you would like it to go. Current price action shows us some interesting information about where
BTC whales want it to go:
1 bold gree arrow: bulls entered the market showing demand and not letting price go lower.
3 bold red arrows: bears entered the market showing supply and not letting price go higher.
This arrows point to Initiative moves (big volume + vertical price action) which usually means that
big players are fighting for this levels and not lwtting price action break the support/resistance.
The thin green arrows show how price moves higher with small volume (which shows lack of demand). This
action shows that there is no big players interested in higher prices. (volume = big player)
The thin red arrows show how price moved fast (vertically) with high volume once prices threaten breaking
resistances (which shows we still have supply in this levels). This action also shows how big players
aren't interested in higher prices.
Today demand is even smaller and the price isn't showing any true signal of going higher. I'm currently bearish
but with a small short position opened. I'm waiting for another pump action to reach some supply again to
increase my position. The perfect scenario for me would be price moving as high as 7700 usd, breaking
current local high and the supply entering the market showing who is in charge of the action. This is
the level where I'm looking to increase my short position. I'm setting a stop-loss close to 7900, which
gives me a really good R:R. This scenario would make me more sure of my position showing that
there is still supply at the red box and that the price isn't going to go higher.
Anmerkung
2h after I posted, around 7600, supply entered the market and again we see a vertical move under bigger volume. I wasn't expecting a initiative move from bears so soon, but they did and the bulls wasn't keep the high value. Let's see if whales will keep pushing down or another responsive wave will start.Anmerkung
It looks like that chinese bulls woke up hungry for some BTC! I'm glad they did and maybe my theory will be tested (and I hope I can increase my short without being stoped lol)Anmerkung
Really interesting price action since my last update! As I told you, bulls finally woke up and made a bold initiative move as you can see at the thin green arrow pointing almost up. It was a really good demand wave: both good volume + fast vertical move.
The candle pointed by both red and green bold arrows shows us that inside the red box bulls diminished their force and bears managed to stop a bigger move up. The candle is very clear: wide range with big wicks up and down: the final sentiment was of doubt, not too bullish neither bearish.
With this candle, my last 2 entry points have been hitten and my position is (finally) 100% open with a great R:R, now I must wait and see what BTC is going to do. We are 20 minutes away from from 4h candle close, this will tell us what BTC is more likely to do, let's wait!
Anmerkung
This is the daily chart and that's why that red box is so important: there is a confluence of resistance in that region.
1. EMA200 really important averege, specially on daily charts
2. 7700 horizontal resistance (orange bolder line)
3. Downtrend chanel (black thiner line)
If this box got broken, that's a really good bullish signal, but this isn't likely at current market conditions.
Anmerkung
This last red candle close was bad for bears: narrow range candle with high volume and closed near to the middle, it looks like that big bears may be giving up, let's observe...
Anmerkung
I was expecting a more initiative response from big players around this area. Current response of bull's last up attempt was too weak imo. I hope big players start pushing harder soon, or I could change my mind...Anmerkung
As you guys can see, last hourly candle again had a big battle between supply and demand. This time price failed getting a higher high and did a slightly lower low (comparing to last candle with big volume).
Expressive amount of longs have been closed and shorts have been open. This may be a little bullish, since big players goal is always making fool as many retail traders as possible, so if they are planning to go higher, they need to close some retail longs and fool other retails to open shorts. Let's keep watching...
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