Bitcoin - If you don't know, say you don't know
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When I lose track of what is going on and my chart gets blown up my fall back position is to climb to 10,000 feet and take another look down. It would appear that the market and (it's participants) are hell bent on getting back down to around $8,500 for whatever reason. Maybe it's because of the CME gap? Maybe it's because of the Stock to Flow ratio? Maybe it's because of the 20 Week Moving Average? (orange dotted line) Maybe its to get back to the base line of the upward Fib channel (baby blue dotted line) Maybe it's because of low liquidity? Maybe it's because it's Saturday and people have nothing better to do? Maybe it's all of the above?
At any rate it doesn't matter. It is what it is as they say. I'm tired of getting blown out of my short term positions but I'm still bullish long term. The last time the 20 Week moving average crossed over the 40 week moving average the bull run went to 20K. I would expect the trend to continue this time as well so long as the averages are still respected to the upside. No matter what happens over the next few weeks and months I will always have my core long position going into the halving. I wouldn't miss that for all the short term trading opportunities in the world. 25 months from now the Stock to Flow ratio will be over 100K and there's something about my curiosity and greed that makes me want to stick around to see how that plays out. I'll trade a small amount of BTC when I can but my core holdings will not see the Exchange again until well after the halving. Depending on what is going on in the world at that time maybe not even then.
So what are my short term predictions for Bitcoin?
I don't know.
At any rate it doesn't matter. It is what it is as they say. I'm tired of getting blown out of my short term positions but I'm still bullish long term. The last time the 20 Week moving average crossed over the 40 week moving average the bull run went to 20K. I would expect the trend to continue this time as well so long as the averages are still respected to the upside. No matter what happens over the next few weeks and months I will always have my core long position going into the halving. I wouldn't miss that for all the short term trading opportunities in the world. 25 months from now the Stock to Flow ratio will be over 100K and there's something about my curiosity and greed that makes me want to stick around to see how that plays out. I'll trade a small amount of BTC when I can but my core holdings will not see the Exchange again until well after the halving. Depending on what is going on in the world at that time maybe not even then.
So what are my short term predictions for Bitcoin?
I don't know.
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