BTC Market Tops & Bottoms

3. Sept. 2023

BTC on the 2 month chart using 21 ema, RSI and Stoch RSI.

Red circles = Sell region
Green circles = Buy region
White box = Indicator of bull run

Red Circles (sell areas):
When RSI peaks over 85 this is signal #1.
When Stoch RSI is over 90 and the blue line crosses below the red line, this is signal #2.
When both signals trigger, this marks the market top.
(2013 was the only time where the RSI peaked over 85 a second time, while the Stoch crossed at 68. This resulted in a second top in 2013.)

Green Circles (buy area):
When RSI dips under 51 this is signal #1.
When Stoch RSI falls under 20 and the blue line crosses above the red line, this is signal #2. When both signals trigger, this means market has bottomed.
Also of note, when price falls below the 21 ema, that is a good time to be accumulating.

White Squares (bull run):
In the RSI, when the green line crosses above the red line, that's signal #1.
In the Stoch RSI, when the blue line crosses above the 50 (orange dotted line) that's signal #2.
When both the RSI and Stoch signals confrm, this marks bull run.

In 2022 the rules for market bottom has been triggered (Green circles.)
Currently in 2023, the RSI has dipped under 51 and the Stoch is having problems breaking over the 20 level.
More down side in price could be expected if these 2 indicators can't break above their levels.

Currently BTC is under the 21 ema, and the RSI fell back into green circle territory.
The Stoch definitely needs to be watched. If the blue line crosses below the red line, this may pull BTC lower.

The white boxes for 2023/2024 is looking too forward. The RSI and Stoch need to both go over their yellow lines first to even think about the white boxes.

1. Nov. 2023

Trade ist aktiv

September's monthly candle closed, and this is an update 59 days later:
-Bitcoin rose $8,700 since I first posted (September 2, 2023)
-Price broke above the 21 ema
-Rsi crossed above its basis line (white square)
-Stoch rsi crossed over the 20 level, but hasn't crossed above the 50 level (orange dotted line)

So far 2 out of the 3 requirements have been fulfilled. We're just waiting for the stoch to cross above the 50 level.
When the stoch rsi finally confirms its move over the 50, then this will safely signal the bull run.

The next area to watch after this would be the sell target. (red circles)

26. Aug. 2024

Trade ist aktiv

BTC update for August 26, 2024

Rsi has crossed above its moving average, and it's at the 68 level.
I feel the rsi needs to get to 85 and over for BTC to reach its blow off top.

The stochastic rsi crossed above the 50 level.
The blue line is at the 99 level, and the orange line is a tad under 86.
When both lines break above 90, watch this indicator carefully. As long as the blue line is above the orange line, BTC is bullish. Once the blue line crosses below the orange line that's the end of the run for BTC.

The 2 month chart is super slow, so by the time there's a stochastic cross down, the price would have already plummeted significantly.
So how do you prevent exiting your position too late?
The stochastic rsi indicator is constantly moving, and the blue line tends to cross and uncross throughout the day. Knowing this is important.
The fix is to change the time frame from the 2 month chart to the weekly, 3 day and daily chart when the lines are just about to cross.
I will sell part of my position using the 3 day or daily chart on the stochastic cross confirmation.
This technique won't catch the top, but the goal of trading is to sell BTC at more than what I bought it for. And I will be grateful to exit with a profit.