BITCOIN $101k ATH in Sept 2021

30. Apr. 2019

OK so here's my big BITCOIN prediction, for the record.

Looking at the monthly chart on log scale, I think the similarity of the retracement from Nov 13 and Dec 17 highs is really markedly similar. In both cases the price retraces to an amount closely approaching the 88.6% fib level. Notably also from a time sequence perspective the cycles have tightened slightly and we could expect the next time for the cycle to be shorter again by the same ratios. The rest is written on the chart!

Lets see how it looks in a couple of years.

10. Mai 2021

Anmerkung

A couple of years have passed and this still looks valid. I'm of the opinion that, in the way that we wicked out of the channel (on 1M) to 4K in March 2020 we could easily wick out of the channel top to 150k or 200k - these are relatively small variances on the log scale - as would an inaccuracy of 1, 2 or 3 months on the time scale when looking at the 1M chart.

I also like to reference the stock-to-flow model which indicates similar timing and levels, although a similar percentage overshoot of stock-to-flow line would suggest a high closer to 300k.

Both indicate a top to this bull market in the range of Aug to Dec 2021. It's going to be exciting to see how this pans out by the end of the year.

15. Sept. 2021

Anmerkung

I posted a new long-term analysis looking at possible ranges and timing for cycle top and bottom:

I think this one was pretty good and guided me well, but likely 3 months too early in the prediction.