Bitcoin formed a huge bear flag

5. Okt. 2018

Many describe the current price pattern as a descending triangle or a falling wedge, however, I don't think both are true. What has happened in the past few month is very simple: a 5 wave Elliott impulse waves down to the strong support level of 6k, and then forming a consolidation pattern (bear flag). It is called a bear flag is because it has a higher likely hood of breaking down.

In addition to that, bitcoin is now trading below the ema ribbon, which has further confirmed the bearish bias. Watch out for that resistance line and be prepared for a big move! I expect another -70% move in a around 200 days once we broke that trend line.

11. Okt. 2018

Anmerkung

trend line is now broken, but we need a new low for confirmation. I expect a bounce after making a new low around 5,100 to 5,400, then a big down move may start after we break the 5k support.

15. Nov. 2018

Anmerkung

new low is now in place, and I think shorting the bounce would a wise move, I expect bitcoin to reach bottom within 40- 60 days from now.

17. Dez. 2018

Anmerkung

3k will provide a strong resistance since there are a lot of people expecting a bounce from here. However, judging by the speed of decline and daily trading volume of the recent price moves I don't think we are going to get a big bounce at 3k. The most likely scenario is the price will slowly breach 3k and then trigger a panic sell-off.

17. Feb. 2019

Anmerkung

a bounce at 3k is unexpected because it is so obvious. maybe that's why it bounced with a relatively low volume. luckily I went in around 3400 and made a small profit. however the short to mid-term outlook is still bearish, and I still expect a new low in the next few months.