The $64 Million Question - Where Are We In The 4 Year Cycle?
Aktualisiert
2020 seems very bullish but it is actually only at the FLAT stage of the 4 year cycle.
If you look at the opening price of each year you can find which part of the 4 year cycle we're in.
Year Open price Increase Stage Trade End Of Year?
2012 5 Buy
2013 13 289% BULL Buy
2014 732 5529% SUPERBULL Sell
2015 321 44% DUMP Buy
2016 431 134% FLAT Buy
2017 963 223% BULL Buy
2018 13,880 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
2019 3,693 27% DUMP Buy
2020 7,160 194% FLAT Buy
2021 16,002 223% BULL Buy
2022 230,641 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
2023 61,366 27% DUMP Buy
2024 118,976 194% FLAT Buy
2025 265,901 223% BULL Buy
2026 3,832,505 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
2027 1,019,700 27% DUMP Buy
2028 1,976,998 194% FLAT Buy
2029 4,418,411 223% BULL Buy
2030 63,683,847 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
Of course 2021 and onward is just a linear projection of prior years, and the ratios will decrease. However if the ratios stay the same it would theoretically be $64 million/BTC by 2030. If anything I think that means the 4 year cycle will break down long before 2030 and become irrelevant.
However this is still very important, in particular planning out how to trade the upcoming halvening event. The fact that we are in a flat year means there isn't actually a huge reason to get super aggressive about getting right back into cryptos if the miners dump their holdings after the halvening and cause a mini depression. Instead since it's not going to be a super bull market until 2022 means you have probably all of the end of the summer and maybe into fall to rebuild a good position.
I do think the end of year strategy will be to BUY on december 31 and having a position before then will be great to hold through the SUPERBULL stage of 2022. These are only yearly opening prices and the highs for the year could go past them. We could actually see 100k/BTC in 2021 which would actually be before the superbull market the following year.
If you look at the opening price of each year you can find which part of the 4 year cycle we're in.
Year Open price Increase Stage Trade End Of Year?
2012 5 Buy
2013 13 289% BULL Buy
2014 732 5529% SUPERBULL Sell
2015 321 44% DUMP Buy
2016 431 134% FLAT Buy
2017 963 223% BULL Buy
2018 13,880 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
2019 3,693 27% DUMP Buy
2020 7,160 194% FLAT Buy
2021 16,002 223% BULL Buy
2022 230,641 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
2023 61,366 27% DUMP Buy
2024 118,976 194% FLAT Buy
2025 265,901 223% BULL Buy
2026 3,832,505 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
2027 1,019,700 27% DUMP Buy
2028 1,976,998 194% FLAT Buy
2029 4,418,411 223% BULL Buy
2030 63,683,847 1441% SUPERBULL Sell
Of course 2021 and onward is just a linear projection of prior years, and the ratios will decrease. However if the ratios stay the same it would theoretically be $64 million/BTC by 2030. If anything I think that means the 4 year cycle will break down long before 2030 and become irrelevant.
However this is still very important, in particular planning out how to trade the upcoming halvening event. The fact that we are in a flat year means there isn't actually a huge reason to get super aggressive about getting right back into cryptos if the miners dump their holdings after the halvening and cause a mini depression. Instead since it's not going to be a super bull market until 2022 means you have probably all of the end of the summer and maybe into fall to rebuild a good position.
I do think the end of year strategy will be to BUY on december 31 and having a position before then will be great to hold through the SUPERBULL stage of 2022. These are only yearly opening prices and the highs for the year could go past them. We could actually see 100k/BTC in 2021 which would actually be before the superbull market the following year.
Anmerkung
One other thing is that halvings always fall on flat years so data from prior halvenings ought to continue to be relevant. BTC halving dates all on FLAT years:Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Saturday, July 9, 2016
Friday, May 8, 2020
Anmerkung
Actually 2012 was not really a flat year entirely but the halvening did cause it to flatten out for a while, the cycles when BTC 1st started were going much faster than 4 years and now they're starting to slow down a little.Anmerkung
This post has a number of mistakes, I have corrected them here:
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