AUD Bearishness
the Aussie dollar has printed out some bearish structure on the daily time frame as well as the H4 time frame, anticipating more bullishness
on the fundamental side of things the biggest driver of the aud was the positive employment data for july, beating forecast as well as a significant drop in new cases for corona virus
the following economic data taken from trading economics paints bearish outlook for the currency for 2020
All time low interest rates
0.25%
Interest Rate in Australia is expected to be 0.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Australia to stand at 0.25 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2021 and 0.75 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
inflation at 1990 lows
-0.3%
Inflation Rate in Australia is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in Australia to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2021 and 2.10 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
rising unemployment in the first half of 2020
7.5%
Unemployment Rate in Australia is expected to be 8.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in Australia to stand at 7.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 7.30 percent in 2021 and 6.30 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
Wage growth at all time lows
1.8
Australia's seasonally adjusted wage price index rose by 1.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in the previous period and compared with market forecasts of 1.9 percent. This was the weakest growth on record, capturing the first full period of COVID-19 social and business restrictions in the country. Both private sector wages (1.7 percent vs 2.1 percent in Q1) and public sector wages (2.1 percent vs 2.4 percent) grew the least since the series began. Across industries, annual wage growth ranged from 0.8 percent for the construction industry to 2.6 percent for the arts and recreation services industry. On a quarterly basis, the wage price index advanced 0.2 percent, the least on record, after a 0.5 percent rise in the March quarter.
The Australian economy shrank 0.3% on quarter in the first three months of 2020
GDP Growth Rate in Australia is expected to be 1.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in Australia to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.90 percent in 2021 and 0.80 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models
on the fundamental side of things the biggest driver of the aud was the positive employment data for july, beating forecast as well as a significant drop in new cases for corona virus
the following economic data taken from trading economics paints bearish outlook for the currency for 2020
All time low interest rates
0.25%
Interest Rate in Australia is expected to be 0.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Australia to stand at 0.25 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2021 and 0.75 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
inflation at 1990 lows
-0.3%
Inflation Rate in Australia is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in Australia to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2021 and 2.10 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
rising unemployment in the first half of 2020
7.5%
Unemployment Rate in Australia is expected to be 8.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in Australia to stand at 7.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 7.30 percent in 2021 and 6.30 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models.
Wage growth at all time lows
1.8
Australia's seasonally adjusted wage price index rose by 1.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in the previous period and compared with market forecasts of 1.9 percent. This was the weakest growth on record, capturing the first full period of COVID-19 social and business restrictions in the country. Both private sector wages (1.7 percent vs 2.1 percent in Q1) and public sector wages (2.1 percent vs 2.4 percent) grew the least since the series began. Across industries, annual wage growth ranged from 0.8 percent for the construction industry to 2.6 percent for the arts and recreation services industry. On a quarterly basis, the wage price index advanced 0.2 percent, the least on record, after a 0.5 percent rise in the March quarter.
The Australian economy shrank 0.3% on quarter in the first three months of 2020
GDP Growth Rate in Australia is expected to be 1.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in Australia to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.90 percent in 2021 and 0.80 percent in 2022, according to our econometric models
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