Speculative Long Term Forecast - Weekly Chart

If we take a purely wave principle view of this pair then price could have a very long way down. The reason I'm posting this chart now is the fact that price is currently at a decision point - I expect it to go long from here but if it goes short there is a very credible possibility that price will fall dramatically over the next year or so. Now I'm not suggesting anyone trades this but as an exercise in using Elliott Wave Principles I think it is worth doing. I've projected the last move down onto this chart to give you an idea of why I came up with this idea.

Currently price is at the bottom of a rising channel so it could go long for another few months but this idea will still be valid since the next move down could be the one that breaks out short.

How there are plenty of traders who will quote the fundamental reasons why this is not going to happen but in my experience price follows wave principles regardless of fundamentals. I find that when price moves in a certain direction fundamentalists make the news fit the move rather than the other way round.

I'll follow this pair over the next year on all timescales and post my analysis. Let's see where it goes and hopefully we'll learn a lot along the way.

Follow for updates and explanations of price movement

I welcome questions

Steve Nixon

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This is the current view on the 1H - nothing decisive but it look more long than short. If I see an entry set up either way I'll post an update

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*looks

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We've had a move up but it currently looks short so given the proximity to the channel this could still break down.

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We'll not know much about which direction this is taking until we see a nice move away from this major trend line.

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Looks more long than short now.

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Progressing up nicely.