Welcome to the great depression of the 2020s. It is starting.
Aktualisiert
Summer is over, childrens are forced back to school, and policy makers and money movers are back.
Going to try going to the point here. And just going to look at the west (NA & Central + North + West europe) and south east asia. Africa is pointless, and then I do not want to look at every country russia north africa australia etc there is too much to look at there's probably some interesting places and companies (or will be spread a little every where). South America is probably rip also.
There are alot of things so I'll use bullet points. I will try listing most of the major facts.
> Long Term
+ IQs in the west have dropped around 15 points since the 19th century. Which is huge. An average person today would be mentally retarded back in 1870. In particular the drop has accelerated since 1975. The smartest people on the planet now are in SEA, by a small lead, not enough to go all in invest there.
+ Huge waves of migrants in the west never seen in history.
+ Aging population in the West and Japan.
+ Biggest debt ever (and lowest rates, even negative), everywhere almost.
+ Due to low IQs and tech advances, people have a harder time adapting. People are getting dumber while jobs are requiring more intellect...
+ End of the communication Kondriatev Cycle.
+ Crowded planet, Polluted planet, Ressource Exhausted planet.
+ Possible end of an ERA started in the west with first renaissance (including finance) in north italy, then conquest of the world/new world, tech advances, industrial revolutions, and in this 3rd millenia first few years it went absolutely parabolic, adoption curves are vertical, and everyone thinks it won't ever end (LOL!).
Looking VERY similar to Rome. Actually the exact same. Same inflation, same migrant waves, etc.
+ Very low Testosterone levels in the west also. No babies. Priorities changed. Paradigm shift. Check the new field called biohistory.
+ Central banks have gotten too much power, and their monetary policies make no sense.
+ World trying to "cheat" and fast forward the economy, and over consumption of every thing. Just an idiotic mentality.
> Medium Term
+ Debt not planned on getting better. Here is the ridiculous CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55331-LTBO-2.pdf
+ As suprising as something that unbelievably dumb is, "people" (disgraceful sub-humans) praise governments that were running during great economic times, and blame those that were around during recessions or depressions. It's so stupid it hurts, it even hurts to have to lower myself to acknowledge this, but things are as they are and what unbelievably stupid sub humans think (if we can call it thinking) has consequences. And the consequence is governments want to postpone recessions and pump the economy up... Plunge protection team is really ridiculous (USA Europe China all have theirs)...
+ The 90% are getting poorer, the income and wealth gaps are as big or bigger than in 1929.
+ Of course socialism and facism are getting cool again. Especially socialism. Inequality + much stupider simian beasts...
+ Price to Earnings at 1929 levels, highest they ever got (apart from 2000 but those were all growth stocks)
+ Price to GDP (buffet indicator) at highest level...
+ Bond rates are so dumb.
+ Social justice insanity, it doesn't even make sense most of the time.
+ Magic Internet Money ponzi schemes symptom of the problem(s) and absolutely ridiculous.
> Short term
+ Hong Kong exploded.
+ Sweden (swedistan they say) going kaboom.
+ LA.... is full of drug addicts, crime everywhere (criminals get super light sentences), homeless everywhere, ultra high inequality, they have medieval diseases that even india does not have, it's a complete dump full of typhus carrying rats, and trash, I could go on. Complete dump. Ridiculous.
+ Political divide in the US is so high now... 1/3 of casual citizens and 2/3 experts think a civil war is imminent.
+ etc...
+ And this:
Q4 is the best period for trading, I will make a separate idea for this, during this week.
And September-October is usually the period when the stock market falls.
Here are a few examples:
Black Monday 1987 ==> Oct. 19, 1987
"Black" days before the 20th century ==> Sep/Oct also...
I think I made an idea on this a while ago... Not going to look for it.
Big crashes and bad things happen in this period very often take my word for it. (This should be known).
> Prediction for the next 5 years
* Q1 2018 to mid 2019 was a period of uncertainty (well not if you have been following me, I have been very certain of what was going on). September or October will mark the start of the great depression of the 2020s.
Do not expect CNBC to talk about this, or maybe they'll have some guests they consider excentric that claim this, but the "pros" will only be aware the depression started somewhere in 2020 or even 2021, and the mainstream even later than that. In 50 years of course we will trace back the beginning to the next days...
* The indices are just numbers. The master manipulators probably do their best to "keep numbers up" but it will all go down any way. For example if the indices numbers are up DOUBLE but inflation is 500%, they are not really up.
They probably just try their hardest to keep numbers up for the sake of having numbers up. But everything collapses regardless. I would not go short with so much really stupid manipulation. Indices fall, Trump gives a call to the central bank and banks "to talk about something else pinky swear" and then numbers go up the next day...
Can go down regardless. If the clowns running the show force the numbers to go up they will just keep making things much worse. I am talking about destroying the United States of America in a record short time.
But still... I don't see a short... Numbers can be artificially proped up while real things get worse. I only do short term anyway (1 day to 5 weeks). So it's out of my field of expertise anyway... Just too much manipulation and random factors for me. I think in longer terms only buy and hold or get out and wait for a turn is the way to go, speculating in particular short is better shorter term not that interesting long term. Just my opinion.
* Currencies I expect to become much more volatile soon. Yay! Dollar probably won't be a safe haven this time. It is already overpriced since Europe and China have been devaluing their currencies to the limit.
* Cryptocurrencies will be a big hedge against the depression. Nah I'm just kidding they are going to zero of course. Not going to go into details check my crypto ideas + common sense.
* I am not sure about commodities. Gold and Silver go up, Oil down maybe? Agri will be more volatile. Copper down, less is being done, less demand...
Going to try going to the point here. And just going to look at the west (NA & Central + North + West europe) and south east asia. Africa is pointless, and then I do not want to look at every country russia north africa australia etc there is too much to look at there's probably some interesting places and companies (or will be spread a little every where). South America is probably rip also.
There are alot of things so I'll use bullet points. I will try listing most of the major facts.
> Long Term
+ IQs in the west have dropped around 15 points since the 19th century. Which is huge. An average person today would be mentally retarded back in 1870. In particular the drop has accelerated since 1975. The smartest people on the planet now are in SEA, by a small lead, not enough to go all in invest there.
+ Huge waves of migrants in the west never seen in history.
+ Aging population in the West and Japan.
+ Biggest debt ever (and lowest rates, even negative), everywhere almost.
+ Due to low IQs and tech advances, people have a harder time adapting. People are getting dumber while jobs are requiring more intellect...
+ End of the communication Kondriatev Cycle.
+ Crowded planet, Polluted planet, Ressource Exhausted planet.
+ Possible end of an ERA started in the west with first renaissance (including finance) in north italy, then conquest of the world/new world, tech advances, industrial revolutions, and in this 3rd millenia first few years it went absolutely parabolic, adoption curves are vertical, and everyone thinks it won't ever end (LOL!).
Looking VERY similar to Rome. Actually the exact same. Same inflation, same migrant waves, etc.
+ Very low Testosterone levels in the west also. No babies. Priorities changed. Paradigm shift. Check the new field called biohistory.
+ Central banks have gotten too much power, and their monetary policies make no sense.
+ World trying to "cheat" and fast forward the economy, and over consumption of every thing. Just an idiotic mentality.
> Medium Term
+ Debt not planned on getting better. Here is the ridiculous CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook: cbo.gov/system/files/2019-06/55331-LTBO-2.pdf
+ As suprising as something that unbelievably dumb is, "people" (disgraceful sub-humans) praise governments that were running during great economic times, and blame those that were around during recessions or depressions. It's so stupid it hurts, it even hurts to have to lower myself to acknowledge this, but things are as they are and what unbelievably stupid sub humans think (if we can call it thinking) has consequences. And the consequence is governments want to postpone recessions and pump the economy up... Plunge protection team is really ridiculous (USA Europe China all have theirs)...
+ The 90% are getting poorer, the income and wealth gaps are as big or bigger than in 1929.
+ Of course socialism and facism are getting cool again. Especially socialism. Inequality + much stupider simian beasts...
+ Price to Earnings at 1929 levels, highest they ever got (apart from 2000 but those were all growth stocks)
+ Price to GDP (buffet indicator) at highest level...
+ Bond rates are so dumb.
+ Social justice insanity, it doesn't even make sense most of the time.
+ Magic Internet Money ponzi schemes symptom of the problem(s) and absolutely ridiculous.
> Short term
+ Hong Kong exploded.
+ Sweden (swedistan they say) going kaboom.
+ LA.... is full of drug addicts, crime everywhere (criminals get super light sentences), homeless everywhere, ultra high inequality, they have medieval diseases that even india does not have, it's a complete dump full of typhus carrying rats, and trash, I could go on. Complete dump. Ridiculous.
+ Political divide in the US is so high now... 1/3 of casual citizens and 2/3 experts think a civil war is imminent.
+ etc...
+ And this:
Q4 is the best period for trading, I will make a separate idea for this, during this week.
And September-October is usually the period when the stock market falls.
Here are a few examples:
Black Monday 1987 ==> Oct. 19, 1987
"Black" days before the 20th century ==> Sep/Oct also...
I think I made an idea on this a while ago... Not going to look for it.
Big crashes and bad things happen in this period very often take my word for it. (This should be known).
> Prediction for the next 5 years
* Q1 2018 to mid 2019 was a period of uncertainty (well not if you have been following me, I have been very certain of what was going on). September or October will mark the start of the great depression of the 2020s.
Do not expect CNBC to talk about this, or maybe they'll have some guests they consider excentric that claim this, but the "pros" will only be aware the depression started somewhere in 2020 or even 2021, and the mainstream even later than that. In 50 years of course we will trace back the beginning to the next days...
* The indices are just numbers. The master manipulators probably do their best to "keep numbers up" but it will all go down any way. For example if the indices numbers are up DOUBLE but inflation is 500%, they are not really up.
They probably just try their hardest to keep numbers up for the sake of having numbers up. But everything collapses regardless. I would not go short with so much really stupid manipulation. Indices fall, Trump gives a call to the central bank and banks "to talk about something else pinky swear" and then numbers go up the next day...
Can go down regardless. If the clowns running the show force the numbers to go up they will just keep making things much worse. I am talking about destroying the United States of America in a record short time.
But still... I don't see a short... Numbers can be artificially proped up while real things get worse. I only do short term anyway (1 day to 5 weeks). So it's out of my field of expertise anyway... Just too much manipulation and random factors for me. I think in longer terms only buy and hold or get out and wait for a turn is the way to go, speculating in particular short is better shorter term not that interesting long term. Just my opinion.
* Currencies I expect to become much more volatile soon. Yay! Dollar probably won't be a safe haven this time. It is already overpriced since Europe and China have been devaluing their currencies to the limit.
* Cryptocurrencies will be a big hedge against the depression. Nah I'm just kidding they are going to zero of course. Not going to go into details check my crypto ideas + common sense.
* I am not sure about commodities. Gold and Silver go up, Oil down maybe? Agri will be more volatile. Copper down, less is being done, less demand...
Anmerkung
Bonus: Even the Sun is not on our side.An excerpt: "NASA is effectively forecasting a return to the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) but gives no mention of the brutal cold, crop loss, famine, war and powerful Volcanic eruptions associated with it"
Global Warming and Low Sun activity are maybe going to cancel each other? Right? Right?
electroverse.net/nasa-predicts-next-solar-cycle-will-be-lowest-in-200-years-dalton-minimum-levels-the-implications/
Anmerkung
There has just been one buyer of stocks since the financial crisis:- Institutions (big pensions, hedge funds...) have been selling 5 to 10% cumulatively of the whole market cap.
- Households & the rest of the world are around zero.
- Companies buybacks have been buying 20% of the mcap...And pushing prices up...
zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-06/there-has-been-just-one-buyer-stocks-financial-crisis
Profitable company? Psychopath CEO uses the profit this way:
- Increases his salary (board of directors is in his pocket)
- Throws cash at directors
- Does stupid buybacks just to pump the price and make shareholders richer
- Spits in workers faces. CEO wages went up 1000%, workers up 10%, inflation up more than 10%.
Wow I wonder where the problem is?
Must be patriarchy and white men.
No the problem is capitalism.
No no no the problem is probably Trump. Has to.
Flying saucers maybe? Jews? Again?
Gee what a tought cookie to crack what could it be?
I sound stupid? Well 99.9% of America including politicians are struggling to figure this out. Planet of the apes...
Anmerkung
To be confirmed:St. Louis Fed Pres. Jim Bullard just admitted on CNBC that since the Fed will be powerless during the next recession, the Fed should do everything it can now to delay that recession for as long as possible.
(Also note that the longer it gets delayed, the worse the recession will be)
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