Yield Curve InversionThe Yield Curve Inversion indicator is a tool designed to help traders and analysts visualize and interpret the dynamics between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. This indicator is particularly useful for identifying yield curve inversions, often seen as a precursor to economic recessions.
Features and Interpretations
Display Modes: Choose between "Spread Mode" to visualize the yield spread indicating normal (green) or inverted (red) curves, or "Both Yields Mode" to view both yields.
Yield Spread: A plotted difference between 10-year and 2-year yields, with a zero line marking inversion. A negative spread suggests potential economic downturns.
Color Coding: Green for a normal yield curve (10Y > 2Y) and red for an inverted curve (2Y > 10Y).
Legend: Provides quick reference to yield curve states for easier interpretation.
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Users should conduct their own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The creator of this indicator is not responsible for any financial losses incurred through its use.
Yieldcurveinversion
US Recession IndicatorThe US Recession Indicator is designed to identify recessions as they happen, using two reputable indicators that have accurately foreseen all past recessions since 1969. Unlike the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) which determines recession dates after the fact, this indicator seeks to spot recessions in real-time. When both of these distinct metrics meet certain criteria, the chart's background becomes shaded, signifying a strong likelihood that the economy is in a recession. Furthermore, a built-in alert system keeps users updated without constant monitoring.
The first metric is the Smoothed Recession Probabilities developed by Marcelle Chauvet. It is based on a dynamic-factor markov-switching model that assesses four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments and real manufacturing and trade sales. It offers a mathematical analysis of how recessions deviate from expansions. In essence, this index mirrors the probability of the prevailing true economic situation being a recession, grounded on the current GDP data.
The second metric is the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator developed by Claudia Sahm. It operates on the principle that changes in the unemployment rate can be used to identify the onset of a recession. According to this rule, if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point from the preceding year, it flags a potential recession.
For this combined indicator, the thresholds are intentionally set lower than when each metric is used individually. Both metrics must simultaneously suggest a potential recession in order to send a signal. This stems from the realisation that neither metric is infallible and has, on occasion, sent false signals in the past. By requiring both to align, the likelihood of a false positive is reduced. However, it's crucial to understand that past performance does not guarantee future results, leaving the door open for potential false alerts which may not be confirmed by the NBER.
Global Yield SpreadThe Global Yield Spread is a simple indicator that can help to identify economic wellbeing and thus allows traders and investors alike to derive a rough estimation onto where the market is likely to go.
----------
Please note that things like Yield Spread generally influence the market only over longer time horizons of a couple weeks to many months.
Also be aware that the Yield Spread is only capable of measuring the Yields on Bonds and is thus limited to only changes that are reflected in the interest rates on the Bonds.
----------
The Normal Yield Spread is widely recognized for it's signal abilities for recessions or general economic well being...
However, since the rates have decreased drastically in the US something else has been proposed: The Global Yield Spread
As the normal US Yield Spread is loosing signal capacity because the US government can easily borrow money from overseas,
thus reducing the need to increase interest rates.
By monitoring and analyzing the Global Yield spread, traders and investors can gain insights into relative valuations, economic movements, market sentiment, and opportunities.
It can help inform their investment decisions and strategies, allowing them to allocate capital more effectively and potentially generate better returns.
You have options to visually represent a diversity of Countries and their according Yield Spreads.
Furthermore there are Global Yield Spreads for:
10Y-03MY
10Y-02Y
30Y-10Y
The Average Global Yield Spread encompasses the 3 options above to get an average reading.
US Treasuries Yield CurveNews about the yield curve became pretty crucial for all the trades in the last year.
So in the team, we decided to implement a nice widget that will allow you to track the current yield curve in your chart directly.
It's possible to compare the current yield curve with past yield curves. You can choose to display the number of curves weeks, months, and years ago. So you can see the dynamics of the yield curve change.
When the Y2 > Y10 curve is considered invested, so you'll see an "Inverted" notification on the chart.
Thanks to @MUQWISHI for helping code it.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not indicate future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
USTS Yield Curve InversionsVisualization of the inverted portions of the USTS yield curve.
Red means that portion of the curve is inverted.
If 1M is red, it means it's less than RRP%.
US Treasury Constant Maturity SpreadsPlots and tabulates constant maturity treasury yield spreads
// colours per curve type for the plots and table headers
C_30Y_20Y=color.orange
C_10Y_5Y=color.purple
C_10Y_2Y=color.blue
C_7Y_5Y=color.gray
C_5Y_2Y=color.red
C_3Y_2Y=color.yellow
C_10Y_1Y=color.olive
US Treasury All Yield Curve IORB WeightedI've updated my US Treasury All Yield Curve indicator to use the new FRED:IORB (interest on reserve balances), instead of the FRED:FEDFUNDS which is only updated monthly.
The new IORB doesn't provide very long lookback for data, so I'm publishing this as a new version and not an update, making it possible for users to choose which version best suits their needs.
Yield CurveThis script tracks the U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread and uses inversions of the curve to predict recessions. Whenever a red arrow appear on the yield curve, expect a recession to begin within the next 2 years. Use this signal to either exit the market, or hedge current positions. Whenever a green arrow appears on the yield curve, expect a recession to have nearly ended. Use this signal to enter the market, or cut current hedges against a recession. (I may update this script in the future to better incorporate the effective federal funds rate into exit points, but for now I am satisfied with the results).
Turkey Yield Curve SpreadYield spreads are used to see investors' perception of future risk and predict a recession. The spread is the value obtained by subtracting the near term bond from the distant one. This indicator plots this value historically. I used 3-year and 10-year Turkey treasury bond yields instead of 2-year and 10-year Turkey treasury bond yields due to lack of historical data on Tradingview.
Stability Max OverloadStability Max Overload was created in another script I have been working on found below.
I have broken the code down to only display the Stability features.
What this is:
I was trying to find a way that could in some form display the Stability or Instability of the US Treasuries Bond Market. To try and help me do that, I came up with 3 values.
*Stability
*Stability Overload
*Stability Max Overload.
I started with STABILITY. This value is generated based off the number of side by side inversions in the Bond Market. I wanted this value to range between 0 and 1 while 1 equaling all Bonds inverted and 0 equaling no Bonds inverted and any number of inversions in between would equal a percentage value based off the actual number.
STABILITY OVERLOAD was created based off the average of each inversion.
STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD was then created based off the total of each inversion.
The most stable Yield Curve would have no inversions and therefore would generate a 0 for Stability, Stability Overload and Stability Max Overload. The more inversions the Yield Curve has the higher in value Stability itself would have as Stability is weighted more per inversion. With each inversion, data is taken based off the amount with which the Yields are inverted.
This display shows where we currently stand since Dec 2018. It's a telling story so say the least. I do plan on continuing the mentioned above script but again wanted to release a standalone of the data generated.
Hope you enjoy,
OpptionsOnly
Yield Curve Version 2.41Welcome to Yield Curve Version 2.41
* Please read description to help understand the information displayed.
* NOTE - This script requires 1 real time update before accurate information is displayed, therefore WILL NOT display the correct information if the Bond Market is Closed over the Weekend.
* NOTE - When values are changed Via Input setting they do take a bit to display based off all the information that is required to display this script.
**FEATURES**
* Input Features let you view the information the way YOU like via Input Settings
* Displays Current Version Title - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On
* Plots the Yield Curve of the Bonds listed (Middle Green and Red Line)
* Displays the Spread for each Bond (Top Green and Red Labels) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Change Size via Input Settings - Default On
* Displays the current Yield for each Bond (Bottom Green and Red Labels) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Change Size via Input Settings - Default On - Large Size
* Plots the Average of the Entire Yield Curve (BLUE Line within the Yield Curve) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On
* Displays messages based off Yield Inversions (Orange Text) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On if Applicable
* Displays 2 10 Inversion Warning Message (Orange Text) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On if Applicable
* Plots Column Data at the Bottom that tries to help determine the Stability of the Yield Curve (More information Below about Stability) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On
* Plots the 7,20 and 100 SMA of the STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD (More information Below about Stability Max Overload) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On for 100SMA Off for 7 and 20 SMA
**Bottom Columns are all about STABILITY**
* I have tried to come up with an algorithm that helps understand the Stability of the Yield Curve. There are 3 Sections to the Bottom Columns.
* Section 1 - STABILITY (Displayed as the lightest Green or Red Column) Values range from 0 to 1 where 1 equals the MOST UNSTABLE Curve and 0 equals the MOST STABLE Curve
* Section 2 - STABILITY OVERLOAD (Displayed just above the Stability Column a shade darker Green or Red Column)
* Section 3 - STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD (Displayed just above the Stability Overload Column a shade darker Green or Red Column)
What this section tries to do is help understand the Stability of the Curve based on the inversions data. Lower values represent a MORE STABLE curve. If the Yield Curve currently has 0 Inversions all Stability factors should equal 0 and therefore not plot any lower columns. As the Yield Curve becomes more inverted each section represents a value based off that data. GREEN columns represent a MORE Stable Curve from the resolution prior and vise versa.
STABILITY tests the current Stability of the Curve itself again ranging from 0 to 1 where 0 equals the MOST Stable Curve and 1 equals the MOST Unstable Curve.
STABILIY OVERLOAD adds a value to STABLITY based off STABILITY itself.
STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD adds the Entire value to STABILITY derived again from STABILITY.
This section also allows us to see the 7,20 and 100 SMA of the STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD which should always be the GREATEST of ALL STABILTY COLUMNS.
Remember - All information displayed can be tuned On or Off besides the Curve itself. There are also other Features Accessible Via the Input Settings.
I will continue to update this script as there is more information I would like to gather and display!
I hope you enjoy,
OpptionsOnly
US Treasury Yield CurveThis indicator plots the US treasury yield curve as maturity (x-axis/time) vs yield (y-axis/price)
