投資の運勢※日本語説明文は英文の下にあります。
This indicator is a dashboard that simplifies the market’s current condition as a “fortune” by comprehensively evaluating the strength of multiple technical indicators. It allows you to check important analytical results at a glance without cluttering the chart with unnecessary lines.
🎯 How it works: Quantifying and integrating multiple indicators
At the core of this indicator is the process of quantifying four key aspects of the market—trend, momentum, volatility, and volume—assigning weights to each, and calculating an overall score.
How to use it
This indicator functions as a table (dashboard) displayed on your chart.
Check your “fortune for today” to get an overall view of the market’s current risk-reward profile.
Analyze the rows for each indicator to understand the factors behind the fortune.
For example: “The fortune is ‘moderately favorable,’ but volatility is very high (numerical value is large), which reduces the overall score due to its weighted impact.”
The table uses white text on a dark background, making it easy to read regardless of the chart’s color scheme.
⚙️ Customization (Settings Panel)
In the indicator’s settings panel, you can make the following key adjustments:
Type of Moving Average: Turning on use_ema allows the trend calculation to use EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
Weight Adjustment: You can adjust the weights of each indicator (e.g., w_trend, w_momentum) to modify the scoring logic according to your strategy (e.g., trend-focused, momentum-focused).
Use this “fortune chart” as a supplementary tool to objectively assess the current market conditions, rather than as the final decision-maker for trades.
---------------ここから日本語説明--------------------------
このインジケーターは、複数のテクニカル指標の強さを総合的に評価し、現在の市場の状況を**「運勢」**としてシンプルに表示するダッシュボードです。チャート上に邪魔なラインを表示せず、重要な分析結果をひと目で確認できます。
🎯 仕組み：複数の指標を数値化して統合
このインジケーターの核となるのは、市場の4つの主要な側面（トレンド、モメンタム、ボラティリティ、出来高）を数値化し、それぞれに重み付けをして総合スコアを算出する点です。
活用方法
このインジケーターは、チャートに表示される**テーブル（ダッシュボード）**として機能します。
「今日の運勢」を確認し、現在の市場のリスク・リワードの全体像を把握します。
各指標の行を見て、運勢の根拠となった要素を分析します。
例：「運勢が中吉だが、ボラティリティが非常に高い（数値が大きい）ため、重みが働いてスコアが抑えられている」といった分析が可能です。
テーブルは文字が白で背景が暗い色に統一されているため、どの背景色でも見やすくなっています。
⚙️ カスタマイズ（設定パネル）
インジケーターの設定画面で、以下の重要な調整が可能です。
移動平均線の種類: use_ema をONにすると、トレンド計算に**EMA（指数移動平均）**を使用できます。
重み調整: 各指標の w_trend, w_momentum などを調整することで、ご自身の戦略（例：トレンド重視、モメンタム重視）に合わせてスコアの算出ロジックを変更できます。
この「占いチャート」を、トレード判断の最終決定ではなく、現状の市場を客観的に評価する補助ツールとしてご活用ください。
Volumen
GardFx - Fusion - ORBFusion ORB & Bias Monitor
This indicator is a comprehensive toolkit designed for session-based traders. It combines an Opening Range Breakout (ORB) visualizer with a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) trend bias dashboard. It is designed to help traders identify key session levels while keeping track of the broader market trend.
How it Works
1. Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Lines The script identifies the High and Low prices established during the first 15 minutes of a specific session or a manually defined start time.
Calculation: The script tracks the high and low values of candles occurring within the 15-minute window defined by the user settings. It then projects these levels forward using line.new.
Reset Logic: The lines automatically reset at the start of a new session (London or New York) or at specific reset times to ensure the chart remains clean for the next trading opportunity.
2. Multi-Timeframe Bias Dashboard The dashboard provides a quick "Bullish" or "Bearish" sentiment check across four timeframes: Daily, 4-Hour, 1-Hour, and 15-Minute.
Methodology: The script uses request.security to fetch the closing price and a 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for each timeframe.
Signal:
Bullish: Current Close > 50 EMA
Bearish: Current Close < 50 EMA
3. Exchange Clock & Session Tracker A built-in clock displays the current Exchange Time and identifies the active trading session (Asia, London, or New York). This uses timenow and timezone-specific checks to account for Daylight Savings Time shifts between London and New York.
Settings
Automate Session Times: Toggles between automatic detection of London (08:00) and NY (09:30) opens, or a manual user-defined start time.
Manual Start Hour/Minute: Defines the start of the ORB calculation if automation is disabled.
Bias EMA Length: Adjustable length for the trend detection EMA (Default: 50).
Visuals: Users can customize line colors, width, and toggle the mid-line display.
Usage This tool is best used on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute or 5-minute) to visualize the 15-minute opening range boundaries. Traders often observe price action around these high/low lines to determine potential breakouts or reversals, using the MTF Dashboard to align trades with the higher timeframe momentum.
Smart Accumulation Pro – US SmallCap Edition v2
Smart Accumulation Pro v2 — US SmallCap Edition
Institutional Footprint and Structural Behavior Engine
Overview
Smart Accumulation Pro v2 detects structural behavior, internal liquidity shifts, and multi-phase accumulation footprints that are not visible through momentum or volatility indicators. The engine focuses on underlying institutional habits rather than reacting to price alone.
ULTRA — High-Threshold Structural Trigger
ULTRA appears only when multiple internal phases align simultaneously. It is not a momentum spike or volume anomaly. It represents compression pressure, phase readiness, and structural alignment. ULTRA does not repaint. When this signal appears, internal liquidity has already transitioned into an acceleration phase.
PRE — Early Structural Drift (Not a Buy Signal)
PRE should not be interpreted as a buy signal. It indicates gradual accumulation or controlled liquidity positioning. PRE usually appears during stable or quiet phases but rarely appears during panic drops or disorderly downtrends.
ACC — Transitional Footprint Signal
ACC identifies late-stage structural footprints. It is not intended as a standalone buy trigger. ACC highlights that structural preparation is underway, but direction and timing require user validation. ACC often precedes larger institutional behavior.
Philosophy
This engine does not attempt to cover every market pattern. It focuses on the highest-probability institutional habits. Exit timing, risk management, and execution remain user responsibility. The tool minimizes noise and emphasizes rare, high-impact structural zones.
Preset Modes
1) Conservative
For ETFs or stable large-cap instruments. Minimal noise and lower signal frequency.
2) Normal
Optimized for US mid-cap and small-cap behavior. Balanced and recommended as the default mode.
3) Aggressive
For volatile or thematic instruments. Higher frequency, higher risk.
Usage Notes
This indicator does not provide financial advice. It highlights structural conditions that often precede institutional movement. Execution and risk decisions depend on the user.
License Notice
Unauthorized copying, redistribution, or sharing is prohibited. Invite-Only access requires your TradingView username. One purchase equals one user license.
------------------------------------------------------------
Korean Summary (한국어 요약본)
------------------------------------------------------------
Smart Accumulation Pro v2는 세력의 습관, 유동성 이동, 압축 단계 등의 “보이지 않는 내부 구조”를 추적하는 지표다. 기존 모멘텀 기반 지표로는 포착되지 않는 패턴을 분석한다.
ULTRA 신호는 여러 내부 단계가 동시에 정렬될 때만 등장하는 극히 희귀한 트리거다. 페인팅이 없으며, 신호가 뜰 때 이미 내부 구조는 가속 단계에 진입한 상태다.
PRE는 매수 신호가 아니다. 세력이 서서히 움직이기 시작하거나 유동성을 재정렬할 때 나타나는 미세한 초기 흔적이다.
ACC는 본격 움직임 전에 나타나는 마지막 흔적이다. 단독 매수 신호가 아니며, 이후 더 큰 구조적 변화로 이어질 가능성을 나타내는 정도로 해석해야 한다.
이 지표는 모든 패턴을 잡지 않는다. 세력이 반복적으로 사용해 온 고확률 구조만 좁게 추적한다. 출구 전략과 리스크 관리는 사용자의 몫이다.
프리셋은 Conservative, Normal, Aggressive의 3가지 모드로 구성되며, 각각 안정형·균형형·변동성형 종목에 맞춰 설계되었다.
본 지표는 금융 조언을 제공하지 않으며, 무단 공유 또는 재배포는 금지된다. Invite-Only 기반이며 1인 1라이선스 방식이다.
CVD Power & Whale Tracker Overview: What is it?
This indicator combines Order Flow, Volume Analysis, and Momentum into a single dashboard. Instead of just looking at price, it looks at effort (Volume) versus result (Price Action) to identify when Institutions (Whales) are stepping in.
1. The Core Engine: "Pressure" (Z-Score)
At the heart of the indicator is the Z-Score of Volume Delta.
The Logic: It calculates the "Volume Delta" (Buying Volume minus Selling Volume) for every candle. It then compares the current candle's delta to the average of the last 20 candles.
The Output:
Zero Line: Buying and Selling pressure is balanced.
Positive Bar (> 0): Buyers are more aggressive than usual.
Negative Bar (< 0): Sellers are more aggressive than usual.
Extreme Values (> 2 or < -2): This represents statistically significant aggression (2 Standard Deviations from the mean). This usually marks the start of a breakout or a climax.
2. Whale Detection (Institutional Activity)
Retail traders trade small size; Institutions (Whales) trade large size.
The Logic: The script calculates the average volume of the last 50 bars. If the current bar's volume is 2.5x higher than that average, it flags it as a "Whale" bar.
Visual: The Histogram bar turns Yellow.
Meaning: Smart money is active. Pay attention to the direction of the next few candles.
3. Absorption (The "Smart Money" Signal)
This is the most powerful signal in the script. It detects when one side is trapping the other.
Bullish Absorption (Cyan Dot):
Condition: Huge Volume (Whale) + Net Selling Pressure (Red Delta) + Price refuses to drop (closes in the upper half).
Meaning: Sellers are dumping hard, but a passive buyer (Limit Order) is "absorbing" all the sell orders. This is essentially a hidden support wall.
Bearish Absorption (Orange Dot):
Condition: Huge Volume (Whale) + Net Buying Pressure (Green Delta) + Price refuses to rise (closes in the lower half).
Meaning: Buyers are pushing hard, but a passive seller is absorbing the buy orders. This is a hidden resistance wall.
4. Money Flow (Accumulation/Distribution)
Although the purple line was removed from the chart to keep it clean, the math still runs in the background for the Dashboard.
The Logic: It uses the standard Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) formula. It checks if money is flowing into the asset (Close near High) or out (Close near Low) relative to volume.
Dashboard: If the trend of Money Flow is up, the table says "Accumulation (In)". If down, "Distribution (Out)".
5. CVD Trend (Blue/Orange Line)
What is CVD? Cumulative Volume Delta. It keeps a running total of buying vs. selling volume over time.
Usage:
Blue: Positive Slope (Buying Trend).
Orange: Negative Slope (Selling Trend).
Divergence: If Price is making a Lower Low but the CVD Line is making a Higher Low, it means sellers are exhausted (Bullish Divergence). The script highlights the background in Green when this happens.
OBV WaveTrend FlowOBV WaveTrend Pressure — A Volume-Powered Momentum Oscillator
OBV WaveTrend Pressure combines Hybrid OBV (volume × price delta) with the classic LazyBear WaveTrend framework to create a volume-weighted momentum oscillator that highlights real buying/selling pressure before price reacts.
While standard WaveTrend uses price averages alone, this tool feeds a cumulative hybrid OBV source into WT1/WT2, producing a much more sensitive, order-flow-aware momentum signal. The result is a clean, MACD-style histogram built from the slope of WT1, revealing when volume-backed momentum flips from bullish to bearish and vice-versa.
This is designed as a companion to volatility tools (e.g., TTM Squeeze, SQZMOM) and standard price-based WaveTrend indicators.
⸻
Features
1. Hybrid OBV Source (Vol × ΔPrice)
Captures true directional volume pressure, giving earlier and more reliable inflection points than price-based oscillators.
2. WaveTrend Applied to OBV
Applies LazyBear’s WT logic to a volume-driven source:
• WT1 (fast)
• WT2 (signal)
• Optional slope-aware color themes
3. MACD-Style Pressure Histogram
Shows momentum contraction/expansion clearly:
• Bright green/blue → Strong bull pressure
• Pale green/blue → Weakening bull
• Bright red → Strong bear pressure
• Pale red → Weakening bear
4. Dynamic OB/OS Bands
Adaptive overbought/oversold computed from:
• Rolling mean of WT1
• Rolling standard deviation
Helps identify exhaustion relative to market conditions, not fixed numbers.
5. Zero-Line Momentum Flips (with alerts)
Alerts fire when:
• WT1 slope crosses above zero → Bull momentum shift
• WT1 slope crosses below zero → Bear momentum shift
6. Optional Price Bar Coloring
Mirror the histogram state onto price bars for fast visual bias confirmation.
⸻
How to Use
Bullish Signals
• Histogram flips positive
• WT1 rising
• WT1 or WT2 near dynamic oversold zone
• Useful for positioning early in momentum cycles
Bearish Signals
• Histogram flips negative
• WT1 falling
• WT1 or WT2 near dynamic overbought zone
Best Applications
• Trend continuation entries
• Confirming TTM squeeze setups
• Early identification of pressure reversals
• Pairing with price-based WaveTrend for dual confirmation
⸻
Why It Works
WaveTrend is already one of the most reliable oscillators for structure and reversals — but this version feeds it volume pressure instead of price.
Volume often shifts before candles do, making this a leading indicator in many cases.
ProCrypto OI Candles — by ruben_procryptoThis indicator visualizes aggregated Open Interest (OI) from multiple futures exchanges (Binance, Bybit, OKX).
It plots OI as colored candles (blue for increasing OI, orange for decreasing OI), combined with a smoothed OI line for clearer trend reading.
Key Features:
Multiple exchange support (Binance / Bybit / OKX)
Aggregated OI calculation
OI candlesticks with custom opacity
Smoothed OI trend line
Optional OI Delta bars
Adjustable smoothing length, range offset, and lookback settings
Works on all timeframes
What it helps with:
Spotting liquidity traps
Identifying fake pumps / fake dumps
Detecting aggressive long/short positioning
Reading funding cycles and OI expansions
Tracking market strength/weakness behind price movements
OI is one of the most powerful tools for understanding leverage behavior and true market intent.
This script gives a clear, clean, real-time view of OI so traders can see where momentum is actually coming from.
Built for traders who use liquidity, leverage, OI shifts, and momentum to understand price movement more accurately.
Created by @ruben_procrypto.
Coach Cardave (Empowerment) — Strat Combos + Failed 2UP/2DOWN Strat combos and failed 2UP/2DOWN reversals, plus 1/3-3/1 showing how Coach Cardave times high-probability entries using liquidity, multi-timeframe analysis, and momentum shifts.
By using you’ll understand how failed 2s flip the script, convert traps into opportunity, and produce the “Small Bags Daily → Big Bags Weekly” consistency that defines the Empowerment trading style.
Final_CDVCumulative Delta volume using Heikin-Ashi calculation. I don't own the idea behind it, but I updated the calculation to smoothen the oscillation
Advanced FVG Detector Pro📊 Advanced FVG Detector Pro - Smart Money Analysis Tool
Overview
The Advanced FVG Detector Pro is a sophisticated Pine Script v6 indicator designed to identify and track Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) with institutional-grade precision. This tool goes beyond basic gap detection by incorporating volume analysis, smart money scoring, and adaptive filtering to help traders identify high-probability trading opportunities.
What are Fair Value Gaps?
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are price inefficiencies that occur when the market moves so quickly that it leaves behind an imbalance or "gap" in price action. These gaps often act as magnets for future price movement as the market seeks to fill these inefficiencies. Professional traders and institutions closely monitor FVGs as they represent areas of potential support, resistance, and high-probability trade setups.
🎯 Key Features
1. Smart Money Scoring System
Proprietary algorithm that rates each FVG on a 0-100 scale Combines gap size, volume strength, price location, and trend alignment Filter out low-quality setups by setting minimum score thresholdsFocus on institutional-grade opportunities with scores above 70
2. Advanced Volume Validation
Validates FVGs with volume analysis to reduce false signals Only displays gaps formed during significant volume periods Customizable volume multiplier for different market conditions
Visual volume strength indicators on chart
3. Flexible Mitigation Options
Full Fill: Traditional complete gap closure Midpoint Touch: More aggressive entry strategy
Partial Fill: Customizable percentage-based mitigation (10-90%) Choose the strategy that matches your trading style
4. ATR-Based Adaptive Filtering
Automatically adjusts to market volatility using Average True Range Works consistently across any instrument, timeframe, or volatility regime No manual recalibration needed when switching markets Filters out noise while capturing meaningful gaps
5. Real-Time Statistics Dashboard
Live tracking of total active FVGs Bullish vs Bearish gap count Mitigation rate percentage
Average Smart Money Score Toggle on/off based on preference
6. Professional Visual Design
Clean, customizable color schemes Optional midline display for precise entry planning
Labels showing gap type, score, and volume strength Automatic extension of active gaps
Mitigated gaps change color for easy identification
📈 How to Use
For Day Traders:
Use 5-15 minute timeframes
Set ATR Multiplier to 0.15-0.25
Enable volume validation
Focus on FVGs with scores above 65
For Swing Traders:
Use 1H-4H timeframes
Set ATR Multiplier to 0.5-1.0
Use "Midpoint Touch" mitigation
Focus on FVGs with scores above 70
For Position Traders:
Use Daily timeframe
Set ATR Multiplier to 0.75-1.5
Use "Full Fill" mitigation
Focus on FVGs with scores above 75
🔧 Customization Options
Detection Settings:
Minimum FVG size percentage filter
ATR-based size filtering
Maximum number of gaps to display
Smart Money Score minimum threshold
Volume Analysis:
Volume validation toggle
Volume multiplier adjustment
Volume moving average period
Visual volume strength background
Mitigation Control:
Choose mitigation type (Full/Midpoint/Partial)
Set partial fill percentage
Auto-remove mitigated gaps
Control how long mitigated gaps remain visible
Visual Customization:
Bullish/Bearish/Mitigated colors
Show/hide midlines
Show/hide labels
Box extension length
Statistics dashboard toggle
🎓 Trading Strategy Ideas
1. FVG Retest Strategy
Wait for price to create a high-score FVG (70+)
Enter on the first retest of the gap
Place stop loss beyond the gap
Target the opposite side of the gap or next FVG
2. Confluence Trading
Combine FVGs with support/resistance levels
Look for FVGs near key moving averages (20/50 EMA)
Higher probability when FVG aligns with trendlines
Use multiple timeframe analysis
3. Breakout Confirmation
FVGs often form during strong breakouts
High-volume FVGs confirm breakout strength
Enter on mitigation of breakout FVG
Trail stops as new FVGs form in trend direction
⚡ Performance Optimizations
Efficient memory management for smooth chart performance
Optimized calculations run only once per bar
Smart array management prevents memory leaks
Works smoothly even with 100+ active FVGs
🔔 Alert System
Customizable alerts for new bullish FVGs
Customizable alerts for new bearish FVGs
Mitigation alerts for active gaps
Frequency control to avoid alert spam
💡 Pro Tips
Multi-Timeframe Approach: Identify major FVGs on higher timeframes (Daily/4H) and use lower timeframes (15M/5M) for precise entries
Volume Confirmation: The highest probability setups occur when FVGs form with 2x+ average volume
Trend Alignment: Trade FVGs in the direction of the major trend for best results
Patience Pays: Wait for price to return to the FVG rather than chasing breakouts
Risk Management: Always use stop losses beyond the FVG boundaries
📚 Educational Value
This indicator is perfect for:
Learning to identify institutional order flow
Understanding market microstructure
Developing price action trading skills
Recognizing supply and demand imbalances
Improving entry and exit timing
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. Always combine with proper risk management, fundamental analysis, and your own trading plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
🔄 Updates & Support
Regular updates will include:
Additional filtering options
Enhanced multi-timeframe analysis
More customization features
Performance improvements
📊 Best Pairs/Markets
Works excellently on:
Forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.)
Cryptocurrency (BTC, ETH, etc.)
Stock indices (SPX, NQ, etc.)
Individual stocks
Commodities (Gold, Oil, etc.)
Version Information
Version: 1.0
Pine Script: Version 6
Type: Overlay Indicator
Max Boxes: 500
Max Lines: 500
HC HighCrew Volume Intelligence Surge TrackerThis indicator measures coordinated market activity by comparing live volume flow across multiple timeframes against its normalized baseline.
It detects when institutional participation increases beyond historical averages, signaling either a breakout ignition, sustained trend pressure, or liquidity cooling.
Each timeframe is classified by surge intensity, and the system aggregates those readings into a unified “market energy” output that reveals whether participation is concentrated, fading, or fragmented.
The goal is to help traders differentiate between real accumulation and low-resistance drift, improving timing on breakouts or exits.
Use cases: breakout validation, liquidity-flow analysis, volume confirmation with trend bias.
Get_rich_aggressively_v5# 🚀 GET RICH AGGRESSIVELY v5 - TIER SYSTEM
### Precision Futures Scalping | NQ • ES • YM • GC • BTC
### *Leave Every Trade With Money*
---
## 📋 QUICK CHEATSHEET
```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ GRA v5 SIGNAL REQUIREMENTS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ ✓ TIER MET Points ≥ 10 (B), ≥ 50 (A), ≥ 100 (S) │
│ ✓ VOLUME ≥ 1.3x average │
│ ✓ DELTA ≥ 55% dominance (buyers OR sellers) │
│ ✓ DIRECTION Candle color = Delta direction │
│ ✓ SESSION In London (3-5AM) or NY (9:30-11:30AM) if filter ON │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ TIER ACTIONS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🥇 S-TIER (100+ pts) │ HOLD LONGER │ Big institutional move │
│ 🥈 A-TIER (50-99 pts) │ HOLD A BIT │ Medium move, trail to BE │
│ 🥉 B-TIER (10-49 pts) │ CLOSE QUICK │ Scalp 5-10 pts, exit fast │
│ ❌ NO TIER (< 10 pts) │ NO TRADE │ Not enough conviction │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ SESSION PRIORITY │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🔵 LONDON OPEN 03:00-05:00 ET │ IB forms 03:00-04:00 │
│ 🟢 NY OPEN 09:30-11:30 ET │ IB forms 09:30-10:30 │
│ 📊 IB BREAKOUT Close beyond IB + Impulse + 1.3x Vol = HIGH CONVICTION│
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ VOLUME PROFILE ZONES │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 🔵 HVN (Blue BG) High volume = Support/Resistance, expect consolidation │
│ 🟡 LVN (Yellow BG) Low volume = Breakout acceleration, fast moves │
│ 🟣 POC Point of Control = Institutional fair value │
│ 🟣 VAH/VAL Value Area edges = S/R zones │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ MARKET STATE DECODER │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ TREND UP │ Price > EMA20 + CVD rising │ Trade WITH the trend │
│ TREND DN │ Price < EMA20 + CVD falling │ Trade WITH the trend │
│ RETRACE │ Price/CVD diverging │ Pullback, prepare for entry │
│ RANGE │ No clear direction │ Reduce size or skip │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 💎 HIGH CONVICTION UPGRADE │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Purple diamond (◆) appears when: │
│ • Strong delta (≥65%) + Strong volume (≥2x) + Market in imbalance │
│ → Consider upgrading tier (B→A, A→S) for position sizing │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```
---
## 🎯 THE TIER SYSTEM
The tier system classifies candles by **point movement** to determine trade management:
| Tier | Points | Action | Expected R:R |
|:----:|:------:|:------:|:------------:|
| 🥇 **S-TIER** | 100+ | HOLD LONGER | 2:1+ |
| 🥈 **A-TIER** | 50-99 | HOLD A BIT | 1.5:1 |
| 🥉 **B-TIER** | 10-49 | CLOSE QUICK | 1:1 |
| ❌ **NO TIER** | < 10 | NO TRADE | — |
---
## ✅ SIGNAL REQUIREMENTS
**ALL conditions must be TRUE for a signal:**
```
SIGNAL = TIER + VOLUME + DELTA + DIRECTION + SESSION
☐ Points ≥ 10 (minimum B-tier)
☐ Volume ≥ 1.3x average
☐ Delta dominance ≥ 55%
☐ Candle direction = Delta direction
☐ In session (if filter ON)
ANY FALSE = NO SIGNAL = NO TRADE
```
---
## 📊 VOLUME DOMINANCE ANALYSIS
This is the **core edge** of GRA v5. We use intrabar analysis to determine who is in control:
```
VOLUME ANALYSIS BREAKDOWN
Total Volume = Buy Volume + Sell Volume
Buy Volume: Who pushed price UP within the bar
Sell Volume: Who pushed price DOWN within the bar
Delta = Buy Volume - Sell Volume
Buy Dominance = Buy Volume / Total Volume
Sell Dominance = Sell Volume / Total Volume
≥ 55% = ONE SIDE IN CONTROL
≥ 65% = STRONG DOMINANCE (high conviction)
```
**Direction Confirmation Matrix:**
| Candle | Delta | Signal |
|:-------|:------|:-------|
| 🟢 Bullish | 55%+ Buyers | ✅ LONG |
| 🟢 Bullish | 55%+ Sellers | ❌ Trap |
| 🔴 Bearish | 55%+ Sellers | ✅ SHORT |
| 🔴 Bearish | 55%+ Buyers | ❌ Trap |
---
## 🕐 SESSION CONTEXT
### Initial Balance (IB) Framework
The **first hour** of each session establishes the IB range. Institutions use this for the day's framework.
```
SESSION WINDOWS (Eastern Time):
LONDON:
├── IB Period: 03:00 - 04:00 ← Range established
├── Trade Window: 03:00 - 05:00 ← Best signals
└── Extension Targets: 1.5x, 2.0x
NY:
├── IB Period: 09:30 - 10:30 ← Range established
├── Trade Window: 09:30 - 11:30 ← Best signals
└── Extension Targets: 1.5x, 2.0x
```
### IB Breakout Signals
```
L▲ / L▼ = London IB Breakout (Blue)
N▲ / N▼ = NY IB Breakout (Orange)
Confirmation Required:
☐ Close beyond IB level (not just wick)
☐ Impulse candle (body > 60% of range)
☐ Volume > 1.3x average
```
**IB Statistics:**
- 97% of days break either IB high or low
- 1.5x extension = first profit target
- 2.0x extension = full range target
- ~66% of London sessions sweep Asian high/low first
---
## 📈 VIRTUAL VOLUME PROFILE ZONES
GRA v5 calculates volume profile zones **without drawing the profile**, giving you the key levels:
### Zone Types
| Zone | Background | Meaning | Action |
|:-----|:-----------|:--------|:-------|
| **HVN** | 🔵 Blue | High Volume Node | S/R zone, expect consolidation |
| **LVN** | 🟡 Yellow | Low Volume Node | Breakout zone, fast acceleration |
| **POC** | 🟣 Purple dots | Point of Control | Institutional fair value |
| **VAH/VAL** | 🟣 Purple lines | Value Area edges | S/R boundaries |
### How to Use
```
ENTERING A TRADE:
At HVN:
├── Expect price to consolidate
├── Look for rejection/absorption
└── Better for reversals
At LVN:
├── Expect fast price movement
├── Don't fight the direction
└── Better for breakouts
Near POC:
├── Institutional fair value
├── Strong magnet effect
└── Watch for volume at POC
```
---
## 🔄 MARKET STATE DETECTION
GRA v5 classifies the market into four states using **CVD + Price Action**:
```
CVD Direction
↑ Rising ↓ Falling
┌─────────────┬─────────────┐
Price > EMA20 │ TREND UP │ RETRACE │
│ (Go Long) │ (Pullback) │
├─────────────┼─────────────┤
Price < EMA20 │ RETRACE │ TREND DN │
│ (Pullback) │ (Go Short) │
└─────────────┴─────────────┘
```
| State | Meaning | Action |
|:------|:--------|:-------|
| **TREND UP** | Buyers in control | Trade long, follow signals |
| **TREND DN** | Sellers in control | Trade short, follow signals |
| **RETRACE** | Pullback against trend | Prepare for continuation entry |
| **RANGE** | No clear direction | Reduce size or wait |
---
## 💎 HIGH CONVICTION UPGRADES
When extra conditions align, GRA v5 marks the signal with a **purple diamond**:
```
HIGH CONVICTION = Base Signal + Strong Delta (65%+) + Strong Volume (2x+) + Imbalance State
```
**Action:** Consider upgrading tier for position sizing:
- B-Tier → A-Tier management
- A-Tier → S-Tier management
---
## 📋 TRADING BY TIER
### 🥇 S-TIER (100+ points)
| | |
|:--|:--|
| **Entry** | Candle close |
| **Target** | IB extension / Next S/R |
| **Management** | HOLD LONGER |
**Rules:**
- Watch next candle - continues? HOLD
- Same tier same direction? ADD
- Opposite tier signal? EXIT on close
- Never close early unless reversal signal
### 🥈 A-TIER (50-99 points)
| | |
|:--|:--|
| **Entry** | Candle close |
| **Target** | 1.5x initial risk minimum |
| **Management** | HOLD A BIT |
**Rules:**
- Target 1.5:1 R:R minimum
- Trail to breakeven after 1:1
- If stalls, take profit
- Upgrade to S-tier management if high conviction
### 🥉 B-TIER (10-49 points)
| | |
|:--|:--|
| **Entry** | Candle close |
| **Target** | 5-10 points MAX |
| **Management** | CLOSE QUICK |
**Rules:**
- Exit in 1-3 candles
- DO NOT hold for more
- Any doubt = EXIT
- Quick scalp mentality
---
## ⚙️ SETTINGS BY INSTRUMENT
| Setting | NQ/ES | YM | GC | BTC |
|:--------|:-----:|:--:|:--:|:---:|
| **Timeframe** | 1-5 min | 1-5 min | 5-15 min | 1-15 min |
| **S-Tier** | 100 pts | 100 pts | 15 pts | 500 pts |
| **A-Tier** | 50 pts | 50 pts | 8 pts | 250 pts |
| **B-Tier** | 10 pts | 15 pts | 3 pts | 50 pts |
| **Min Volume** | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.5x | 1.3x |
| **Delta %** | 55% | 55% | 58% | 55% |
| **Best Time** | 9:30-11:30 ET | 9:30-11:30 ET | 3-5AM & 8:30-10:30 ET | 24/7 |
---
## 📊 TABLE LEGEND
The info panel displays real-time market data:
| Row | Shows | Colors |
|:----|:------|:-------|
| **Pts** | Candle points | Gold/Green/Yellow by tier |
| **Tier** | S/A/B/X | Gold/Green/Yellow/White |
| **Vol** | Volume ratio | Yellow (2x+) / Green (1.3x+) / Red |
| **Delta** | Buy/Sell % | Green (buy) / Red (sell) / White |
| **CVD** | Direction | Green ▲ / Red ▼ |
| **State** | Market state | Green/Red/Orange/Gray |
| **Sess** | Session | Yellow if active |
| **Zone** | VP zone | Blue/Yellow/Purple |
| **Sig** | Signal | Green/Red if active |
---
## 🔔 ALERTS
| Alert | When | Action |
|:------|:-----|:-------|
| **S-TIER LONG/SHORT** | S-tier signal | Hold longer |
| **A-TIER LONG/SHORT** | A-tier signal | Hold a bit |
| **B-TIER LONG/SHORT** | B-tier signal | Close quick |
| **LON IB BREAK UP/DN** | London IB breakout | Major session move |
| **NY IB BREAK UP/DN** | NY IB breakout | Major session move |
| **HIGH CONVICTION** | Upgraded signal | Consider larger size |
| **LONDON/NY OPEN** | Session start | Get ready |
---
## 💰 THE GOLDEN RULE
> ### **LEAVE EVERY TRADE WITH MONEY**
>
> | Situation | Rule |
> |:----------|:-----|
> | B-Tier | Small win > Small loss |
> | A-Tier | Trail to BE, lock profit |
> | S-Tier | Let it run to target |
> | No Signal | NO TRADE |
> | Wrong Side | EXIT immediately |
>
> **Capital preserved = Trade tomorrow**
---
## ⚠️ DISCLAIMER
> Risk management is **YOUR** responsibility.
> Never risk more than 1-2% per trade.
> Paper trade until you understand the signals.
> Past performance ≠ future results.
---
### Get Rich. Stay Rich. Trade Aggressively. 🚀
**Get Rich Aggressively v5**
*Precision Futures Scalping*
EMA 7/21 + SuperTrend DEFINITIVOhe Ultimate 7/21 Signal: Trend-Filtered by Supertrend 🚀Tired of signals that trade against the main trend? This powerful indicator features the 7/21 EMA Crossover as its core signal, but with a massive upgrade in confirmation:Trend Alignment: Only signals that move in the direction of the Supertrend are confirmed, drastically reducing false entries.Momentum Filter: The ADX DI ensures the move has directional strength.Conviction Check: A Volume Filter validates the signal with market participation.This multi-stage filter provides clean, high-conviction signals for the $7/21$ strategy. The intuitive Informative Panel clearly shows when all conditions are met for a BUY or SELL.Trade with the trend. Trade with conviction.
EMA 7/21 + SuperTrend INDICADOR CREADO PARA MI ESTRATEGIA That sounds like a complex and multi-layered trading indicator you've developed! Combining an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover with an Average Directional Index (ADX) filter, a Volume filter, and a Supertrend for overall trend confirmation can certainly help to filter out false signals and potentially increase the reliability of your entry and exit points.Here's a breakdown of the components you're using and why this combination can be powerful:📊 Indicator Components and Their Roles1. 7/21 EMA Crossover (Signal Generator)The $7$-period EMA and $21$-period EMA crossover is a common strategy used to generate initial buy or sell signals.Buy Signal: The short-term EMA (7) crosses above the long-term EMA (21).Sell Signal: The short-term EMA (7) crosses below the long-term EMA (21).2. ADX DI Filter (Momentum and Direction)The Average Directional Index (ADX) and its directional indicators ($+DI$ and $-DI$) are key to confirming the strength and direction of the move.Directional Confirmation: The EMA crossover must be confirmed by the appropriate directional index. For a buy, the $+DI$ should be above the $-DI$. For a sell, the $-DI$ should be above the $+DI$.Trend Strength ( NYSE:ADX $): A rising NYSE:ADX $ (typically above 20 or 25) suggests the current trend has sufficient momentum, making the signal more reliable.3. Volume Filter (Conviction)Adding a Volume filter ensures that the price movement accompanying the EMA crossover is supported by significant trading activity.Confirmation: A strong signal (buy or sell) is often accompanied by above-average volume. This suggests that market participants are actively supporting the move, adding conviction to the trade.4. Supertrend (Overall Trend Confirmation)The Supertrend indicator is based on the Average True Range (ATR) and is excellent for identifying the dominant market trend.Trend Alignment: The EMA crossover signal should align with the Supertrend's current signal. For a buy signal, the price should be above the Supertrend line (green). For a sell signal, the price should be below the Supertrend line (red). This helps ensure you are trading with the prevailing trend.📈 Why This is a Powerful CombinationYour indicator is essentially a multi-stage confirmation system:Speed (7/21 EMA): Generates a fast, responsive signal.Momentum (ADX DI): Confirms the direction and strength of the signal.Conviction (Volume): Validates the signal with market participation.Safety/Trend (Supertrend): Ensures the trade is in the direction of the long-term trend.The Informative Panel is a great feature, as it simplifies the decision-making process by summarizing the findings of all these components—e.g., "BUY: EMA Crossover $\checkmark$, +DI > -DI $\checkmark$, High Volume $\checkmark$, Supertrend Green $\checkmark$."💡 Next Steps for RefinementTo finalize and test this indicator, you may want to consider:Parameter Optimization: The best settings for the ADX level (e.g., 20 vs. 25) and the Supertrend ATR parameters may need to be optimized for the specific asset (e.g., stocks, forex) and timeframe you are using.Exit Strategy: Since this primarily focuses on entries, define clear Stop-Loss (perhaps based on the Supertrend line or a recent swing low/high) and Take-Profit (e.g., a fixed Risk/Reward ratio or previous resistance/support levels) rules.Would you like to explore specific parameters for any of these components or look into ways to backtest your strategy?
LiquidityPulse RSI Candle Strength MomentumLiquidity-Pulse RSI Candle Strength Momentum is a multifunctional and original candle-analysis tool designed to highlight the potential internal strength of each candle using a combination of body size and volume.
To view the candle-strength scores clearly: right-click on the chart, go to Settings, and in the Symbol tab untick Body, Borders and Wicks.
Candle Strength Scores
The indicator calculates the average body size and average volume over a user-defined lookback period. Each candle is then compared to these averages, and the indicator combines relative body expansion and relative volume expansion with a square-root calculation to create a (normalised) candle-strength score from 1 to 10.
10 – exceptionally strong compared to the lookback average (large body size and volume)
1 – very weak compared to the lookback average (small body size and volume)
Bullish and bearish candles are evaluated independently, producing separate bull-strength and bear-strength scores.
Optional ATR and volume floors can be enabled to restrict strength scoring to candles that exceed a minimum volatility or participation threshold. This helps users who prefer to filter out low-impact candles during quiet market periods. This option can be enabled or adjusted in the settings but is turned off by default.
Candle Colours
This tool also shows candles coloured based on the candle-strength scores (10 colours in each theme), which makes it easier to visualise the scores and see whether the candle score was high or not. There are several options in the 'colour theme' dropdown menu in the settings. Users can also customise all colours manually.
RSI Candle Strength Arrows
The Relative Strength Index is a long-established momentum tool that calculates the ratio of average upward moves to average downward moves over a defined period, allowing traders to identify potential overbought and oversold market conditions where momentum may be stretched. As well as this, strong early momentum and participation are often associated with more sustained moves.
This indicator combines this methodology and provides optional arrows that appear only when candle strength and RSI conditions align:
– A candle meets or exceeds a chosen strength threshold
– RSI has recently reached an overbought or oversold level
– The candle direction matches the expected momentum shift
For example, if price has reached an oversold RSI level and a strong bullish candle forms (high candle-strength number), an upside arrow may plot.
Users can customise the RSI oversold and overbought thresholds, the minimum candle-strength threshold, and how many bars back the RSI condition must have occurred in the settings.
These arrows are not buy or sell signals but instead highlight rare moments where strong candle behaviour aligns with meaningful RSI extremes. This is useful to users because it allows the candle-strength logic to be applied only when momentum is genuinely stretched, filtering out noise and focusing attention on the most statistically significant market moves.
This indicator brings together a quantitative candle-strength model and a momentum-based RSI filter to give users a clearer view of how individual candles behave relative to their recent environment, while also highlighting when those movements occur during meaningful shifts in market momentum. By combining both forms of analysis, the tool helps traders distinguish ordinary price changes from potentially significant structural behaviour.
How traders can use this indicator
– Stronger candle scores in the trend direction can confirm continuation pressure.
– Powerful opposing candles appearing at RSI extremes may signal potential reversals or exhaustion points.
– If breakouts occur with high candle scores, price may be more likely to follow through.
– Weak candles with low scores help traders avoid false signals or low-quality setups.
– Candle-strength scoring helps users quickly interpret both volume and candle-body behaviour without manual analysis.
Open source, if anyone has any ideas on how to make the script better or have any questions please let me know :)
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for educational and analytical purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The candle-strength values displayed by this tool are not literal or definitive measures of market strength; they are derived from a custom mathematical model designed to highlight relative differences in candle behaviour. These values should be viewed as a simplified representation of candle dynamics, not as an objective or universal measure of strength.
Users should be aware that this calculation does not replace the importance of analysing real traded volume, order flow, liquidity conditions, or broader market context. As with any technical tool, results should be considered alongside other forms of analysis, and past performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Use at your own discretion and risk.
Volume Weighted Average Price - 6 band by buckstrdrstandard VWAP improved to allow 6 bands as standard
Swift Algo X🧠 Swift Algo X - Adaptive Volume-Drift & Optimization System
Swift Algo X is a sophisticated quantitative trading system designed to solve a big failure point in technical analysis: Parameter Inefficiency.
While most indicators rely on static input settings that fail when market volatility shifts, Swift Algo X solves this by combining a Volume-Drift Model with an integrated Brute-Force Optimization Engine.
The system does not just guess the trend or entry signals, it runs 24 parallel historical simulations in the background to mathematically identify the optimal settings for the asset you are currently trading.
🔍 How It Works
The algorithm operates on a "Dual-Core" architecture: The Signal Engine generates possible trade setups, while the Optimization Engine validates and ranks them in real-time.
1. The Signal Engine: Volume-Drift Calculation Unlike standard indicators that rely on lagging price averages, Swift Algo X calculates the underlying "Volume Force".
It applies a Z-Score Normalization to measure how far the current volume flow has drifted from its statistical mean.
This creates a "Fair Value Estimate" derived purely from volume pressure rather than just price action.
Signals are generated when price breaks out of the volatility bands surrounding this estimate.
2. The Macro Anchor To filter out lower-timeframe noise: The system anchors all logic to a dynamic Macro Baseline.
Bullish Setups: Valid only when the Volume Estimate is sustaining above the Macro Baseline.
Bearish Setups: Valid only when the Volume Estimate is sustaining below the Macro Baseline.
3. The Optimization Engine (The Core Innovation) This is the distinguishing feature of Swift Algo X. On every bar update, the script utilizes Pine Script to:
- Simulate 24 different permutation sets of Volatility Factors and Periods.
- Backtest every permutation against historical price action in real-time.
- Rank them by Win Rate and display the most profitable mathematical fit on the dashboard.
⚙ Key Features
🚀 Live Strategy Tester: A built-in dashboard displays the Win Rate for your current settings vs. the calculated "Best Settings."
🧠 Self-Optimizing Logic: The system recommends the exact "Multiplier" and "Period" that have historically yielded the highest probability for the specific ticker.
✅ Volume-Weighted Signals: Entries are based on volume accumulation, offering a distinct advantage over price-only indicators.
🎯 Adaptive Bands: The volatility bands expand and contract based on the Z-Score drift, naturally filtering out chop during low-volume consolidation.
📘 How to Use
1) Apply to Chart: Load Swift Algo X on your preferred timeframe (e.g., 15m, 1H, 4H).
2) Consult the Dashboard: Look at the "Backtesting" table in the top right corner.
Row 1 (Current): Shows how your current inputs are performing.
Row 2 (Backtest): Shows the theoretical performance of the optimal settings found by the engine.
3) Align Parameters: If the "Backtest Setting" shows a significantly higher Win %, adjust your Multiplier and Period inputs to match the dashboard's recommendation.
4) Wait for BUY / SELL Labels to appear. Use these as confirmation or as tools within your own strategy.
5) Always complement signals with independent risk management and your own analysis.
💡 Originality & Concept
Swift Algo X innovates by transforming the chart from a passive display into an active Simulation Environment.
While the underlying concept of Trailing Stops is a familiar tool, Swift Algo X’s originality lies in its Permutation Engine. By leveraging complex array sorting and loop structures, the script performs a Historical Analysis inside the indicator itself.
This effectively turns a standard script into a dynamic "Strategy Analyzer," allowing traders to adapt the Volume-Drift model to the specific volatility profile of any asset class (Crypto, Forex, or Indices) instantly without leaving the chart.
⚠ Disclaimer
Swift Algo X is a quantitative analysis tool designed for educational purposes. The "Best Settings" are derived from historical data and do not guarantee future performance. Traders should always apply independent risk management.
Liquidity Spectrum Visualizer (with option volume)This the Liquidity Spectrum Visualizer from BigBeluga, BUT, I took the script and changed it a little bit.
I added the ability to add option volume for a contract of your choosing. You can turn this off with a toggle switch.
If you are looking at option volume, its better to look at it on a smaller time frame (i.e., 15-min).
RSI + SMA Strategy (Improved)The lower the timeframe, the more signals it will give; if the trend is too strong, it may give false signals, but it works well on lower timeframes in normal or sideways trends
If u have an idea contact me , TY
Pure Wyckoff V50R [Region Based]Pure Wyckoff V50R — Regional Wyckoff Volume-Price Structure Scanner
This script implements a semi-automatic Wyckoff volume–price analysis based purely on regional behaviour, not on single candles. Instead of trying to label every bar, it analyses the last N candles (default ≥ 50) and their volume distribution to estimate whether the market is in an accumulation, distribution or trend phase.
Main features:
🔍 Region-based structure detection
Scans the last regLen bars to find the trading range, then attempts to locate key Wyckoff points such as
SC (Selling Climax), AR, ST, Spring, UT, LPSY, and draws the SC–AR band when a structure is active.
⚖️ Supply–demand balance
Uses regional bullish vs bearish volume to show whether Demand > Supply, Supply > Demand, or Balanced for the current range.
🧠 Phase & decision panel
For the current bar the panel summarises:
overall structure (bullish / bearish / ranging),
approximate Wyckoff phase (e.g. “A phase: SC→AR rally”, “B phase: top distribution zone”, “Bottom testing zone”),
VSA-style bar reading (no supply, effort vs result, SOW, etc.),
current key signal (Spring / UT / LPSY / ST / Trend),
one-line short-term and long-term trading bias.
📊 Scoreboard
Simple scores for structure, volume and trend to give a quick “bullish / bearish / neutral” overview.
Recommended use:
Designed mainly for higher timeframes (Daily / 4H) where Wyckoff structures are clearer.
Parameters (window length, volume averages, multipliers) should be tuned to the instrument and timeframe.
This is a structure helper, not an automatic signal provider – always combine it with your own discretion and risk management.
Disclaimer: This script is for educational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Use at your own risk and feel free to share feedback or improvements.
Maximus imbalance
Maximus imbalance – Indicator Description
Maximus Precision Arrows is an advanced directional signal tool designed for high-accuracy intraday trading.
It detects early BUY and SELL shifts by combining:
• Delta Imbalance Analysis
• Volume-Normalized Pressure (Buy vs Sell Power)
• Trend Confirmation (MA20 / MA50)
• Signal Strength Ratio Filtering
• Smart Gap Control to avoid over-signaling
How it works
The indicator measures real-time buying and selling pressure (Delta), normalizes it by volume, and filters it through trend direction and strength-ratio logic.
Signals only appear when there is:
• A strong directional imbalance
• Confirmed trend alignment
• Valid momentum breakout
• Enough distance from the previous signal (noise reduction)
What the arrows mean
• Green Triangle (BUY):
Strong positive delta shift + bullish imbalance + price aligned with trend.
• Red Triangle (SELL):
Strong negative delta shift + bearish imbalance + price aligned with downtrend.
Best use
• Intraday scalping (1m–15m)
• Options trading (SPX, QQQ, NVDA, AAPL, futures)
• Identifying early reversals & continuation spots
• Filtering noise during consolidation
Important notes
• Signals are filtered to avoid choppy conditions.
• Works on any market, including equities, indices, futures, and CFDs.
• Not a repainting indicator.
able zone# able zone
## 📋 Overview
**able zone** is an advanced Support & Resistance zone detection indicator optimized for **15-minute timeframe trading**. It combines Price Action, Volume Profile, and intelligent zone analysis to identify high-probability trading areas with precise entry and exit points.
## 🎯 Core Features
### 1. **Zone Detection Methods**
- **Auto Detect**: Automatically finds the best zones using combined analysis
- **Price Action**: Based on pivot points and price structure
- **Volume Profile**: Identifies High Volume Nodes (HVN) where most trading occurred
- **Combined**: Uses all methods together for comprehensive analysis
### 2. **Zone Types & Colors**
- 🟢 **Support Zones** (Green): Price tends to bounce up from these areas
- 🔴 **Resistance Zones** (Red): Price tends to reverse down from these areas
- 🟣 **HVN Zones** (Purple): High volume areas from Volume Profile
- **Strong Zones**: Darker colors indicate zones with more touches (higher reliability)
### 3. **Zone Strength Indicators**
- **Labels**: "S3" = Support with 3 touches, "R5" = Resistance with 5 touches
- **Touch Count**: More touches = stronger zone
- **Min Touch Count Setting**: Adjust to filter weak zones (default: 3)
## ⚙️ Settings Guide
### **Zone Detection Settings**
- **Detection Method**: Choose your preferred analysis method
- **Lookback Period** (50-500): How many bars to analyze (default: 200)
- For 15min: 200 bars = ~50 hours of data
- Shorter = Recent zones only
- Longer = Historical zones included
- **Min Touch Count** (2-10): Minimum touches to qualify as a zone (default: 3)
- **Zone Thickness %** (0.1-2.0): How thick the zones appear (default: 0.5)
- Based on ATR for dynamic sizing on 15min chart
### **Zone Colors**
Fully customizable colors for:
- Support Zone (default: Green)
- Resistance Zone (default: Red)
- Strong Support/Resistance (darker shades)
- Volume Profile Zone (default: Purple)
### **Zone Touch Detection**
- **Enable Touch Alerts**: Get notifications when price enters zones
- **Touch Distance %** (0.1-1.0): How close to zone counts as "touch" (default: 0.3%)
- On 15min chart, this gives early warning signals
- **Show Touch Markers**: Visual indicators when price touches zones
- 🔺 = Support touch (potential buy)
- 🔻 = Resistance touch (potential sell)
- 💎 = HVN touch (watch for breakout/rejection)
### **Volume Profile Integration**
- **Show VP Zones**: Display high volume node zones
- **VP Resolution** (20-50): Number of price levels analyzed (default: 30)
- **POC Line** (orange): Point of Control - highest volume price level
- **POC Width**: Line thickness (1-3)
- **Show HVN**: Display High Volume Node zones
- **HVN Threshold** (0.5-0.9): Volume % to qualify as HVN (default: 0.7)
### **Display Options**
- **Zone Labels**: Show S/R labels with touch count
- **Zone Border Lines**: Dotted lines at zone boundaries
- **Extend Zones Right**: Project zones into future
- **Max Visible Zones** (5-50): Maximum number of zones displayed (default: 20)
- Adjust based on chart clarity needs
- **Info Table**: Real-time information dashboard
## 📊 Info Table Explained
The info table (top-right corner) provides real-time zone analysis:
### **Row 1: ZONE Header**
- Shows current timeframe (15m)
- Total active zones
- "able" branding
### **Row 2: 🎯 TOUCH Status**
- **RES**: Currently touching resistance (⚠️ potential reversal down)
- **SUP**: Currently touching support (🚀 potential bounce up)
- **HVN**: Currently in high volume area (⚡ watch for direction)
- **FREE**: Not near any zone (⏳ wait for setup)
- Progress bar shows proximity strength
- Arrows indicate zone type
### **Row 3: 🟢 SUP - Support Zones**
- Number of active support zones below current price
- Progress bar shows relative quantity
- More support = stronger floor
### **Row 4: 🔴 RES - Resistance Zones**
- Number of active resistance zones above current price
- Progress bar shows relative quantity
- More resistance = stronger ceiling
### **Row 5: 🟣 HVN - High Volume Nodes**
- Number of HVN zones (from Volume Profile)
- These are areas where most trading activity occurred
- Often act as magnets for price
### **Row 6: 📍 NEAR - Nearest Zone**
- Shows closest zone type (SUP/RES/HVN)
- Distance in % to nearest zone
- Arrow shows if zone is above or below
### **Row 7: POSITION - Price Position**
- **HIGH**: Price near range top (70%+) - watch for resistance
- **MID**: Price in middle range (30-70%) - neutral zone
- **LOW**: Price near range bottom (<30%) - watch for support
- Shows exact position % in lookback range
### **Row 8: ═ SIGNAL ═**
- **🚀 BUY**: Touching support zone (entry opportunity)
- **⚠️ SELL**: Touching resistance zone (exit/short opportunity)
- **⚡ WATCH**: At HVN (prepare for breakout or rejection)
- **⏳ WAIT**: No clear setup (be patient)
## 🎓 Trading Strategy for 15-Minute Timeframe
### **Basic Setup**
1. Set timeframe to **15 minutes**
2. Use **Auto Detect** or **Combined** method
3. Set **Lookback Period**: 200 bars (~50 hours)
4. Set **Min Touch Count**: 3 (proven zones)
### **Entry Signals**
#### **Long Entry (Buy)**
- Price touches green support zone
- Table shows "🚀 BUY" signal
- Look for bullish candle pattern (hammer, engulfing)
- Volume increases on bounce
- **Best Entry**: Bottom of support zone
- **Stop Loss**: Below support zone (1-2 ATR)
- **Target**: Next resistance zone or 2:1 RR
#### **Short Entry (Sell)**
- Price touches red resistance zone
- Table shows "⚠️ SELL" signal
- Look for bearish candle pattern (shooting star, engulfing)
- Volume increases on rejection
- **Best Entry**: Top of resistance zone
- **Stop Loss**: Above resistance zone (1-2 ATR)
- **Target**: Next support zone or 2:1 RR
#### **HVN Breakout Strategy**
- Price approaches purple HVN zone
- Table shows "⚡ WATCH"
- Wait for breakout with strong volume
- **If breaks up**: Go long, target next resistance
- **If breaks down**: Go short, target next support
### **Zone Strength Rules**
- **S5+ or R5+**: Very strong zones (high probability)
- **S3-S4 or R3-R4**: Reliable zones (good setups)
- **S2 or R2**: Weak zones (use caution)
### **Best Trading Times (15min)**
- **London Open**: 08:00-12:00 GMT (high volume)
- **NY Open**: 13:00-17:00 GMT (high volatility)
- **Overlap**: 13:00-16:00 GMT (best setups)
- **Avoid**: Asian session low volatility periods
### **Risk Management**
- Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
- Use stop loss ALWAYS (place outside zones)
- Take partial profits at 1:1, let rest run to 2:1 or 3:1
- If price consolidates in zone > 3 candles, exit
## ⚠️ Important Notes
### **When Zones Work Best**
✅ Clear trending markets
✅ After significant price movements
✅ At session opens (London/NY)
✅ When multiple zones align
✅ Strong zone with 5+ touches
### **When to Be Cautious**
❌ During major news releases (use economic calendar)
❌ Very low volume periods
❌ Price consolidating inside zone
❌ Weak zones with only 2 touches
❌ Conflicting signals from multiple indicators
### **15-Minute Specific Tips**
- **Lookback 200**: Captures 2-3 trading days of zones
- **Touch Distance 0.3%**: Early signals on 15min moves
- **Max Zones 20**: Keeps chart clean but comprehensive
- **Watch POC**: Often acts as pivot on 15min
- **Volume spike + zone touch** = high probability setup
## 🔧 Recommended Settings for 15min
### **Conservative Trader**
- Detection Method: Combined
- Min Touch Count: 4
- Max Zones: 15
- Touch Distance: 0.2%
### **Aggressive Trader**
- Detection Method: Auto Detect
- Min Touch Count: 2
- Max Zones: 25
- Touch Distance: 0.5%
### **Volume Profile Focused**
- Detection Method: Volume Profile
- Show HVN: Yes
- HVN Threshold: 0.6
- Show POC: Yes
## 📈 Example Trade Scenario (15min)
**Setup**: BTC/USD on 15-minute chart
1. Price approaching green support zone at $42,000
2. Zone label shows "S4" (touched 4 times)
3. Table shows "🚀 BUY" signal
4. Volume increasing on approach
5. Bullish hammer candle forms
**Entry**: $42,050 (bottom of zone)
**Stop Loss**: $41,900 (below zone)
**Target 1**: $42,350 (2:1 RR)
**Target 2**: Next resistance at $42,650
**Result**: Price bounces, hits Target 1 in 3 candles (~45min)
## 💡 Pro Tips
1. **Combine with trend**: Trade in direction of higher timeframe trend
2. **Multiple touches**: Zones with 5+ touches are highest probability
3. **Volume confirmation**: Always check volume on zone touch
4. **POC magnet**: Price often returns to POC line
5. **False breakouts**: If price barely breaks zone and returns = strong signal
6. **Zone-to-zone**: Trade from support to resistance, resistance to support
7. **Time of day**: Best setups occur during peak volume hours
8. **Chart timeframe**: Use 1H to confirm trend, 15min for entry
9. **News avoidance**: Close trades before high-impact news
10. **Zone clusters**: Multiple zones together = strong area
---
**Created by able** | Optimized for 15-minute trading
**Version**: 1.0 | Compatible with TradingView Pine Script v5
For support and updates, enable alerts and monitor the info table in real-time!
Kernel Market Dynamics [WFO - MAB]Kernel Market Dynamics
⚛️ CORE INNOVATION: KERNEL-BASED DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
The Kernel Market Dynamics system represents a fundamental departure from traditional technical indicators. Rather than measuring price levels, momentum, or oscillator extremes, KMD analyzes the statistical distribution of market returns using advanced kernel methods from machine learning theory. This allows the system to detect when market behavior has fundamentally changed—not just when price has moved, but when the underlying probability structure has shifted.
The Distribution Hypothesis:
Traditional indicators assume markets move in predictable patterns. KMD assumes something more profound: markets exist in distinct distributional regimes , and profitable trading opportunities emerge during regime transitions . When the distribution of recent returns diverges significantly from the historical baseline, the market is restructuring—and that's when edge exists.
Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD):
At the heart of KMD lies a sophisticated statistical metric called Maximum Mean Discrepancy. MMD measures the distance between two probability distributions by comparing their representations in a high-dimensional feature space created by a kernel function.
The Mathematics:
Given two sets of normalized returns:
• Reference period (X) : Historical baseline (default 100 bars)
• Test period (Y) : Recent behavior (default 20 bars)
MMD is calculated as:
MMD² = E + E - 2·E
Where:
• E = Expected kernel similarity within reference period
• E = Expected kernel similarity within test period
• E = Expected cross-similarity between periods
When MMD is low : Test period behaves like reference (stable regime)
When MMD is high : Test period diverges from reference (regime shift)
The final MMD value is smoothed with EMA(5) to reduce single-bar noise while maintaining responsiveness to genuine distribution changes.
The Kernel Functions:
The kernel function defines how similarity is measured. KMD offers four mathematically distinct kernels, each with different properties:
1. RBF (Radial Basis Function / Gaussian):
• Formula: k(x,y) = exp(-d² / (2·σ²·scale))
• Properties: Most sensitive to distribution changes, smooth decision boundaries
• Best for: Clean data, clear regime shifts, low-noise markets
• Sensitivity: Highest - detects subtle changes
• Use case: Stock indices, major forex pairs, trending environments
2. Laplacian:
• Formula: k(x,y) = exp(-|d| / σ)
• Properties: Medium sensitivity, robust to moderate outliers
• Best for: Standard market conditions, balanced noise/signal
• Sensitivity: Medium - filters minor fluctuations
• Use case: Commodities, standard timeframes, general trading
3. Cauchy (Default - Most Robust):
• Formula: k(x,y) = 1 / (1 + d²/σ²)
• Properties: Heavy-tailed, highly robust to outliers and spikes
• Best for: Noisy markets, choppy conditions, crypto volatility
• Sensitivity: Lower - only major distribution shifts trigger
• Use case: Cryptocurrencies, illiquid markets, volatile instruments
4. Rational Quadratic:
• Formula: k(x,y) = (1 + d²/(2·α·σ²))^(-α)
• Properties: Tunable via alpha parameter, mixture of RBF kernels
• Alpha < 1.0: Heavy tails (like Cauchy)
• Alpha > 3.0: Light tails (like RBF)
• Best for: Adaptive use, mixed market conditions
• Use case: Experimental optimization, regime-specific tuning
Bandwidth (σ) Parameter:
The bandwidth controls the "width" of the kernel, determining sensitivity to return differences:
• Low bandwidth (0.5-1.5) : Narrow kernel, very sensitive
- Treats small differences as significant
- More MMD spikes, more signals
- Use for: Scalping, fast markets
• Medium bandwidth (1.5-3.0) : Balanced sensitivity (recommended)
- Filters noise while catching real shifts
- Professional-grade signal quality
- Use for: Day/swing trading
• High bandwidth (3.0-10.0) : Wide kernel, less sensitive
- Only major distribution changes register
- Fewer, stronger signals
- Use for: Position trading, trend following
Adaptive Bandwidth:
When enabled (default ON), bandwidth automatically scales with market volatility:
Effective_BW = Base_BW × max(0.5, min(2.0, 1 / volatility_ratio))
• Low volatility → Tighter bandwidth (0.5× base) → More sensitive
• High volatility → Wider bandwidth (2.0× base) → Less sensitive
This prevents signal flooding during wild markets and avoids signal drought during calm periods.
Why Kernels Work:
Kernel methods implicitly map data to infinite-dimensional space where complex, nonlinear patterns become linearly separable. This allows MMD to detect distribution changes that simpler statistics (mean, variance) would miss. For example:
• Same mean, different shape : Traditional metrics see nothing, MMD detects shift
• Same volatility, different skew : Oscillators miss it, MMD catches it
• Regime rotation : Price unchanged, but return distribution restructured
The kernel captures the entire distributional signature —not just first and second moments.
🎰 MULTI-ARMED BANDIT FRAMEWORK: ADAPTIVE STRATEGY SELECTION
Rather than forcing one strategy on all market conditions, KMD implements a Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) system that learns which of seven distinct strategies performs best and dynamically selects the optimal approach in real-time.
The Seven Arms (Strategies):
Each arm represents a fundamentally different trading logic:
ARM 0 - MMD Regime Shift:
• Logic: Distribution divergence with directional bias
• Triggers: MMD > threshold AND direction_bias confirmed AND velocity > 5%
• Philosophy: Trade the regime transition itself
• Best in: Volatile shifts, breakout moments, crisis periods
• Weakness: False alarms in choppy consolidation
ARM 1 - Trend Following:
• Logic: Aligned EMAs with strong ADX
• Triggers: EMA(9) > EMA(21) > EMA(50) AND ADX > 25
• Philosophy: Ride established momentum
• Best in: Strong trending regimes, directional markets
• Weakness: Late entries, whipsaws at reversals
ARM 2 - Breakout:
• Logic: Bollinger Band breakouts with volume
• Triggers: Price crosses BB outer band AND volume > 1.2× average
• Philosophy: Capture volatility expansion events
• Best in: Range breakouts, earnings, news events
• Weakness: False breakouts in ranging markets
ARM 3 - RSI Mean Reversion:
• Logic: RSI extremes with reversal confirmation
• Triggers: RSI < 30 with uptick OR RSI > 70 with downtick
• Philosophy: Fade overbought/oversold extremes
• Best in: Ranging markets, mean-reverting instruments
• Weakness: Fails in strong trends, catches falling knives
ARM 4 - Z-Score Statistical Reversion:
• Logic: Price deviation from 50-period mean
• Triggers: Z-score < -2 (oversold) OR > +2 (overbought) with reversal
• Philosophy: Statistical bounds reversion
• Best in: Stable volatility regimes, pairs trading
• Weakness: Trend continuation through extremes
ARM 5 - ADX Momentum:
• Logic: Strong directional movement with acceleration
• Triggers: ADX > 30 with DI+ or DI- strengthening
• Philosophy: Momentum begets momentum
• Best in: Trending with increasing velocity
• Weakness: Late exits, momentum exhaustion
ARM 6 - Volume Confirmation:
• Logic: OBV trend + volume spike + candle direction
• Triggers: OBV > EMA(20) AND volume > average AND bullish candle
• Philosophy: Follow institutional money flow
• Best in: Liquid markets with reliable volume
• Weakness: Manipulated volume, thin markets
Q-Learning with Rewards:
Each arm maintains a Q-value representing its expected reward. After every bar, the system calculates a reward based on the arm's signal and actual price movement:
Reward Calculation:
If arm signaled LONG:
reward = (close - close ) / close
If arm signaled SHORT:
reward = -(close - close ) / close
If arm signaled NEUTRAL:
reward = 0
Penalty multiplier: If loss > 0.5%, reward × 1.3 (punish big losses harder)
Q-Value Update (Exponential Moving Average):
Q_new = Q_old + α × (reward - Q_old)
Where α (learning rate, default 0.08) controls adaptation speed:
• Low α (0.01-0.05): Slow, stable learning
• Medium α (0.06-0.12): Balanced (recommended)
• High α (0.15-0.30): Fast, reactive learning
This gradually shifts Q-values toward arms that generate positive returns and away from losing arms.
Arm Selection Algorithms:
KMD offers four mathematically distinct selection strategies:
1. UCB1 (Upper Confidence Bound) - Recommended:
Formula: Select arm with max(Q_i + c·√(ln(t)/n_i))
Where:
• Q_i = Q-value of arm i
• c = exploration constant (default 1.5)
• t = total pulls across all arms
• n_i = pulls of arm i
Philosophy: Balance exploitation (use best arm) with exploration (try uncertain arms). The √(ln(t)/n_i) term creates an "exploration bonus" that decreases as an arm gets more pulls, ensuring all arms get sufficient testing.
Theoretical guarantee: Logarithmic regret bound - UCB1 provably converges to optimal arm selection over time.
2. UCB1-Tuned (Variance-Aware UCB):
Formula: Select arm with max(Q_i + √(ln(t)/n_i × min(0.25, V_i + √(2·ln(t)/n_i))))
Where V_i = variance of rewards for arm i
Philosophy: Incorporates reward variance into exploration. Arms with high variance (unpredictable) get less exploration bonus, focusing effort on stable performers.
Better bounds than UCB1 in practice, slightly more conservative exploration.
3. Epsilon-Greedy (Simple Random):
Algorithm:
With probability ε: Select random arm (explore)
With probability 1-ε: Select highest Q-value arm (exploit)
Default ε = 0.10 (10% exploration, 90% exploitation)
Philosophy: Simplest algorithm, easy to understand. Random exploration ensures all arms stay updated but may waste time on clearly bad arms.
4. Thompson Sampling (Bayesian):
The most sophisticated selection algorithm, using true Bayesian probability.
Each arm maintains Beta distribution parameters:
• α (alpha) = successes + 1
• β (beta) = failures + 1
Selection Process:
1. Sample θ_i ~ Beta(α_i, β_i) for each arm using Marsaglia-Tsang Gamma sampler
2. Select arm with highest sample: argmax_i(θ_i)
3. After reward, update:
- If reward > 0: α += |reward| × 100 (increment successes)
- If reward < 0: β += |reward| × 100 (increment failures)
Why Thompson Sampling Works:
The Beta distribution naturally represents uncertainty about an arm's true win rate. Early on with few trials, the distribution is wide (high uncertainty), leading to more exploration. As evidence accumulates, it narrows around the true performance, naturally shifting toward exploitation.
Unlike UCB which uses deterministic confidence bounds, Thompson Sampling is probabilistic—it samples from the posterior distribution of each arm's success rate, providing automatic exploration/exploitation balance without tuning.
Comparison:
• UCB1: Deterministic, guaranteed regret bounds, requires tuning exploration constant
• Thompson: Probabilistic, natural exploration, no tuning required, best empirical performance
• Epsilon-Greedy: Simplest, consistent exploration %, less efficient
• UCB1-Tuned: UCB1 + variance awareness, best for risk-averse
Exploration Constant (c):
For UCB algorithms, this multiplies the exploration bonus:
• Low c (0.5-1.0): Strongly prefer proven arms, rare exploration
• Medium c (1.2-1.8): Balanced (default 1.5)
• High c (2.0-3.0): Frequent exploration, diverse arm usage
Higher exploration constant in volatile/unstable markets, lower in stable trending environments.
🔬 WALK-FORWARD OPTIMIZATION: PREVENTING OVERFITTING
The single biggest problem in algorithmic trading is overfitting—strategies that look amazing in backtest but fail in live trading because they learned noise instead of signal. KMD's Walk-Forward Optimization system addresses this head-on.
How WFO Works:
The system divides time into repeating cycles:
1. Training Window (default 500 bars): Learn arm Q-values on historical data
2. Testing Window (default 100 bars): Validate on unseen "future" data
Training Phase:
• All arms accumulate rewards and update Q-values normally
• Q_train tracks in-sample performance
• System learns which arms work on historical data
Testing Phase:
• System continues using arms but tracks separate Q_test metrics
• Counts trades per arm (N_test)
• Testing performance is "out-of-sample" relative to training
Validation Requirements:
An arm is only "validated" (approved for live use) if:
1. N_test ≥ Minimum Trades (default 10): Sufficient statistical sample
2. Q_test > 0 : Positive out-of-sample performance
Arms that fail validation are blocked from generating signals, preventing the system from trading strategies that only worked on historical data.
Performance Decay:
At the end of each WFO cycle, all Q-values decay exponentially:
Q_new = Q_old × decay_rate (default 0.95)
This ensures old performance doesn't dominate forever. An arm that worked 10 cycles ago but fails recently will eventually lose influence.
Decay Math:
• 0.95 decay after 10 periods → 0.95^10 = 0.60 (40% forgotten)
• 0.90 decay after 10 periods → 0.90^10 = 0.35 (65% forgotten)
Fast decay (0.80-0.90): Quick adaptation, forgets old patterns rapidly
Slow decay (0.96-0.99): Stable, retains historical knowledge longer
WFO Efficiency Metric:
The key metric revealing overfitting:
Efficiency = (Q_test / Q_train) for each validated arm, averaged
• Efficiency > 0.8 : Excellent - strategies generalize well (LOW overfit risk)
• Efficiency 0.5-0.8 : Acceptable - moderate generalization (MODERATE risk)
• Efficiency < 0.5 : Poor - strategies curve-fitted to history (HIGH risk)
If efficiency is low, the system has learned noise. Training performance was good but testing (forward) performance is weak—classic overfitting.
The dashboard displays real-time WFO efficiency, allowing users to gauge system robustness. Low efficiency should trigger parameter review or reduced position sizing.
Why WFO Matters:
Consider two scenarios:
Scenario A - No WFO:
• Arm 3 (RSI Reversion) shows Q-value of 0.15 on all historical data
• System trades it aggressively
• Reality: It only worked during one specific ranging period
• Live trading: Fails because market has trended since backtest
Scenario B - With WFO:
• Arm 3 shows Q_train = 0.15 (good in training)
• But Q_test = -0.05 (loses in testing) with 12 test trades
• N_test ≥ 10 but Q_test < 0 → Arm BLOCKED
• System refuses to trade it despite good backtest
• Live trading: Protected from false strategy
WFO ensures only strategies that work going forward get used, not just strategies that fit the past.
Optimal Window Sizing:
Training Window:
• Too short (100-300): May learn recent noise, insufficient data
• Too long (1000-2000): May include obsolete market regimes
• Recommended: 4-6× testing window (default 500)
Testing Window:
• Too short (50-80): Insufficient validation, high variance
• Too long (300-500): Delayed adaptation to regime changes
• Recommended: 1/5 to 1/4 of training (default 100)
Minimum Trades:
• Too low (5-8): Statistical noise, lucky runs validate
• Too high (30-50): Many arms never validate, system rarely trades
• Recommended: 10-15 (default 10)
⚖️ WEIGHTED CONFLUENCE SYSTEM: MULTI-FACTOR SIGNAL QUALITY
Not all signals are created equal. KMD implements a sophisticated 100-point quality scoring system that combines eight independent factors with different importance weights.
The Scoring Framework:
Each potential signal receives a quality score from 0-100 by accumulating points from aligned factors:
CRITICAL FACTORS (20 points each):
1. Bandit Arm Alignment (20 points):
• Full points if selected arm's signal matches trade direction
• Zero points if arm disagrees
• Weight: Highest - the bandit selected this arm for a reason
2. MMD Regime Quality (20 points):
• Requires: MMD > dynamic threshold AND directional bias confirmed
• Scaled by MMD percentile (how extreme vs history)
• If MMD in top 10% of history: 100% of 20 points
• If MMD at 50th percentile: 50% of 20 points
• Weight: Highest - distribution shift is the core signal
HIGH IMPACT FACTORS (15 points each):
3. Trend Alignment (15 points):
• Full points if EMA(9) > EMA(21) > EMA(50) for longs (inverse for shorts)
• Scaled by ADX strength:
- ADX > 25: 100% (1.0× multiplier) - strong trend
- ADX 20-25: 70% (0.7× multiplier) - moderate trend
- ADX < 20: 40% (0.4× multiplier) - weak trend
• Weight: High - trend is friend, alignment increases probability
4. Volume Confirmation (15 points):
• Requires: OBV > EMA(OBV, 20) aligned with direction
• Scaled by volume ratio: vol_current / vol_average
- Volume 1.5×+ average: 100% of points (institutional participation)
- Volume 1.0-1.5× average: 67% of points (above average)
- Volume below average: 0 points (weak conviction)
• Weight: High - volume validates price moves
MODERATE FACTORS (10 points each):
5. Market Structure (10 points):
• Full points (10) if bullish structure (higher highs, higher lows) for longs
• Partial points (6) if near support level (within 1% of swing low)
• Similar logic inverted for bearish trades
• Weight: Moderate - structure context improves entries
6. RSI Positioning (10 points):
• For long signals:
- RSI < 50: 100% of points (1.0× multiplier) - room to run
- RSI 50-60: 60% of points (0.6× multiplier) - neutral
- RSI 60-70: 30% of points (0.3× multiplier) - elevated
- RSI > 70: 0 points (0× multiplier) - overbought
• Inverse for short signals
• Weight: Moderate - momentum context, not primary signal
BONUS FACTORS (10 points each):
7. Divergence (10 points):
• Full 10 points if bullish divergence detected for long (or bearish for short)
• Zero points otherwise
• Weight: Bonus - leading indicator, adds confidence when present
8. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation (10 points):
• Full 10 points if higher timeframe aligned (HTF EMA trending same direction, RSI supportive)
• Zero points if MTF disabled or HTF opposes
• Weight: Bonus - macro context filter, prevents counter-trend disasters
Total Maximum: 110 points (20+20+15+15+10+10+10+10)
Signal Quality Calculation:
Quality Score = (Accumulated_Points / Maximum_Possible) × 100
Where Maximum_Possible = 110 points if all factors active, adjusts if MTF disabled.
Example Calculation:
Long signal candidate:
• Bandit Arm: +20 (arm signals long)
• MMD Quality: +16 (MMD high, 80th percentile)
• Trend: +11 (EMAs aligned, ADX = 22 → 70% × 15)
• Volume: +10 (OBV rising, vol 1.3× avg → 67% × 15 = 10)
• Structure: +10 (higher lows forming)
• RSI: +6 (RSI = 55 → 60% × 10)
• Divergence: +0 (none present)
• MTF: +10 (HTF bullish)
Total: 83 / 110 × 100 = 75.5% quality score
This is an excellent quality signal - well above threshold (default 60%).
Quality Thresholds:
• Score 80-100 : Exceptional setup - all factors aligned
• Score 60-80 : High quality - most factors supportive (default minimum)
• Score 40-60 : Moderate - mixed confluence, proceed with caution
• Score 20-40 : Weak - minimal support, likely filtered out
• Score 0-20 : Very weak - almost certainly blocked
The minimum quality threshold (default 60) is the gatekeeper. Only signals scoring above this value can trigger trades.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment:
The system optionally adjusts the threshold based on historical signal distribution:
If Dynamic Threshold enabled:
Recent_MMD_Mean = SMA(MMD, 50)
Recent_MMD_StdDev = StdDev(MMD, 50)
Dynamic_Threshold = max(Base_Threshold × 0.5,
min(Base_Threshold × 2.0,
MMD_Mean + MMD_StdDev × 0.5))
This auto-calibrates to market conditions:
• Quiet markets (low MMD): Threshold loosens (0.5× base)
• Active markets (high MMD): Threshold tightens (2× base)
Signal Ranking Filter:
When enabled, the system tracks the last 100 signal quality scores and only fires signals in the top percentile.
If Ranking Percentile = 75%:
• Collect last 100 signal scores in memory
• Sort ascending
• Threshold = Score at 75th percentile position
• Only signals ≥ this threshold fire
This ensures you're only taking the cream of the crop —top 25% of signals by quality, not every signal that technically qualifies.
🚦 SIGNAL GENERATION: TRANSITION LOGIC & COOLDOWNS
The confluence system determines if a signal qualifies , but the signal generation logic controls when triangles appear on the chart.
Core Qualification:
For a LONG signal to qualify:
1. Bull quality score ≥ signal threshold (default 60)
2. Selected arm signals +1 (long)
3. Cooldown satisfied (bars since last signal ≥ cooldown period)
4. Drawdown protection OK (current drawdown < pause threshold)
5. MMD ≥ 80% of dynamic threshold (slight buffer below full threshold)
For a SHORT signal to qualify:
1. Bear quality score ≥ signal threshold
2. Selected arm signals -1 (short)
3-5. Same as long
But qualification alone doesn't trigger a chart signal.
Three Signal Modes:
1. RESPONSIVE (Default - Recommended):
Signals appear on:
• Fresh qualification (wasn't qualified last bar, now is)
• Direction reversal (was qualified short, now qualified long)
• Quality improvement (already qualified, quality jumps 25%+ during EXTREME regime)
This mode shows new opportunities and significant upgrades without cluttering the chart with repeat signals.
2. TRANSITION ONLY:
Signals appear on:
• Fresh qualification only
• Direction reversal only
This is the cleanest mode - signals only when first qualifying or when flipping direction. Misses re-entries if quality improves mid-regime.
3. CONTINUOUS:
Signals appear on:
• Every bar that qualifies
Testing/debugging mode - shows all qualified bars. Very noisy but useful for understanding when system wants to trade.
Cooldown System:
Prevents signal clustering and overtrading by enforcing minimum bars between signals.
Base Cooldown: User-defined (default 5 bars)
Adaptive Cooldown (Optional):
If enabled, cooldown scales with volatility:
Effective_Cooldown = Base_Cooldown × volatility_multiplier
Where:
ATR_Pct = ATR(14) / Close × 100
Volatility_Multiplier = max(0.5, min(3.0, ATR_Pct / 2.0))
• Low volatility (ATR 1%): Multiplier ~0.5× → Cooldown = 2-3 bars (tight)
• Medium volatility (ATR 2%): Multiplier 1.0× → Cooldown = 5 bars (normal)
• High volatility (ATR 4%+): Multiplier 2.0-3.0× → Cooldown = 10-15 bars (wide)
This prevents excessive trading during wild swings while allowing more signals during calm periods.
Regime Filter:
Three modes controlling which regimes allow trading:
OFF: Trade in any regime (STABLE, TRENDING, SHIFTING, ELEVATED, EXTREME)
SMART (Recommended):
• Regime score = 1.0 for SHIFTING, ELEVATED (optimal)
• Regime score = 0.8 for TRENDING (acceptable)
• Regime score = 0.5 for EXTREME (too chaotic)
• Regime score = 0.2 for STABLE (too quiet)
Quality scores are multiplied by regime score. A 70% quality signal in STABLE regime becomes 70% × 0.2 = 14% → blocked.
STRICT:
• Regime score = 1.0 for SHIFTING, ELEVATED only
• Regime score = 0.0 for all others → hard block
Only trades during optimal distribution shift regimes.
Drawdown Protection:
If current equity drawdown exceeds pause threshold (default 8%), all signals are blocked until equity recovers.
This circuit breaker prevents compounding losses during adverse conditions or broken market structure.
🎯 RISK MANAGEMENT: ATR-BASED STOPS & TARGETS
Every signal generates volatility-normalized stop loss and target levels displayed as boxes on the chart.
Stop Loss Calculation:
Stop_Distance = ATR(14) × ATR_Multiplier (default 1.5)
For LONG: Stop = Entry - Stop_Distance
For SHORT: Stop = Entry + Stop_Distance
The stop is placed 1.5 ATRs away from entry by default, adapting automatically to instrument volatility.
Target Calculation:
Target_Distance = Stop_Distance × Risk_Reward_Ratio (default 2.0)
For LONG: Target = Entry + Target_Distance
For SHORT: Target = Entry - Target_Distance
Default 2:1 risk/reward means target is twice as far as stop.
Example:
• Price: $100
• ATR: $2
• ATR Multiplier: 1.5
• Risk/Reward: 2.0
LONG Signal:
• Entry: $100
• Stop: $100 - ($2 × 1.5) = $97.00 (-$3 risk)
• Target: $100 + ($3 × 2.0) = $106.00 (+$6 reward)
• Risk/Reward: $3 risk for $6 reward = 1:2 ratio
Target/Stop Box Lifecycle:
Boxes persist for a lifetime (default 20 bars) OR until an opposite signal fires, whichever comes first. This provides visual reference for active trade levels without permanent chart clutter.
When a new opposite-direction signal appears, all existing boxes from the previous direction are immediately deleted, ensuring only relevant levels remain visible.
Adaptive Stop/Target Sizing:
While not explicitly coded in the current version, the shadow portfolio tracking system calculates PnL based on these levels. Users can observe which ATR multipliers and risk/reward ratios produce optimal results for their instrument/timeframe via the dashboard performance metrics.
📊 COMPREHENSIVE VISUAL SYSTEM
KMD provides rich visual feedback through four distinct layers:
1. PROBABILITY CLOUD (Adaptive Volatility Bands):
Two sets of bands around price that expand/contract with MMD:
Calculation:
Std_Multiplier = 1 + MMD × 3
Upper_1σ = Close + ATR × Std_Multiplier × 0.5
Lower_1σ = Close - ATR × Std_Multiplier × 0.5
Upper_2σ = Close + ATR × Std_Multiplier
Lower_2σ = Close - ATR × Std_Multiplier
• Inner band (±0.5× adjusted ATR) : 68% probability zone (1 standard deviation equivalent)
• Outer band (±1.0× adjusted ATR) : 95% probability zone (2 standard deviation equivalent)
When MMD spikes, bands widen dramatically, showing increased uncertainty. When MMD calms, bands tighten, showing normal price action.
2. MOMENTUM FLOW VECTORS (Directional Arrows):
Dynamic arrows that visualize momentum strength and direction:
Arrow Properties:
• Length: Proportional to momentum magnitude (2-10 bars forward)
• Width: 1px (weak), 2px (medium), 3px (strong)
• Transparency: 30-100 (more opaque = stronger momentum)
• Direction: Up for bullish, down for bearish
• Placement: Below bars (bulls) or above bars (bears)
Trigger Logic:
• Always appears every 5 bars (regular sampling)
• Forced appearance if momentum strength > 50 OR regime shift OR MMD velocity > 10%
Strong momentum (>75%) gets:
• Secondary support arrow (70% length, lighter color)
• Label showing "75%" strength
Very strong momentum (>60%) gets:
• Gradient flow lines (thick vertical lines showing momentum vector)
This creates a dynamic "flow field" showing where market pressure is pushing price.
3. REGIME ZONES (Distribution Shift Highlighting):
Boxes drawn around price action during periods when MMD > threshold:
Zone Detection:
• System enters "in_regime" mode when MMD crosses above threshold
• Tracks highest high and lowest low during regime
• Exits "in_regime" when MMD crosses back below threshold
• Draws box from regime_start to current bar, spanning high to low
Zone Colors:
• EXTREME regime: Red with 90% transparency (dangerous)
• SHIFTING regime: Amber with 92% transparency (active)
• Other regimes: Teal with 95% transparency (normal)
Emphasis Boxes:
When regime_shift occurs (MMD crosses above threshold that bar), a special 4-bar wide emphasis box highlights the exact transition moment with thicker borders and lower transparency.
This visual immediately shows "the market just changed" moments.
4. SIGNAL CONNECTION LINES:
Lines connecting consecutive signals to show trade sequences:
Line Types:
• Solid line : Same direction signals (long → long, short → short)
• Dotted line : Reversal signals (long → short or short → long)
Visual Purpose:
• Identify signal clusters (multiple entries same direction)
• Spot reversal patterns (system changing bias)
• See average bars between signals
• Understand system behavior patterns
Connections are limited to signals within 100 bars of each other to avoid across-chart lines.
📈 COMPREHENSIVE DASHBOARD: REAL-TIME SYSTEM STATE
The dashboard provides complete transparency into system internals with three size modes:
MINIMAL MODE:
• Header (Regime + WFO phase)
• Signal Status (LONG READY / SHORT READY / WAITING)
• Core metrics only
COMPACT MODE (Default):
• Everything in Minimal
• Kernel info
• Active bandit arm + validation
• WFO efficiency
• Confluence scores (bull/bear)
• MMD current value
• Position status (if active)
• Performance summary
FULL MODE:
• Everything in Compact
• Signal Quality Diagnostics:
- Bull quality score vs threshold with progress bar
- Bear quality score vs threshold with progress bar
- MMD threshold check (✓/✗)
- MMD percentile (top X% of history)
- Regime fit score (how well current regime suits trading)
- WFO confidence level (validation strength)
- Adaptive cooldown status (bars remaining vs required)
• All Arms Signals:
- Shows all 7 arm signals (▲/▼/○)
- Q-value for each arm
- Indicates selected arm with ◄
• Thompson Sampling Parameters (if TS mode):
- Alpha/Beta values for selected arm
- Probability estimate (α/(α+β))
• Extended Performance:
- Expectancy per trade
- Sharpe ratio with star rating
- Individual arm performance (if enough data)
Key Dashboard Sections:
REGIME: Current market regime (STABLE/TRENDING/SHIFTING/ELEVATED/EXTREME) with color-coded background
SIGNAL STATUS:
• "▲ LONG READY" (cyan) - Long signal qualified
• "▼ SHORT READY" (red) - Short signal qualified
• "○ WAITING" (gray) - No qualified signals
• Signal Mode displayed (Responsive/Transition/Continuous)
KERNEL:
• Active kernel type (RBF/Laplacian/Cauchy/Rational Quadratic)
• Current bandwidth (effective after adaptation)
• Adaptive vs Fixed indicator
• RBF scale (if RBF) or RQ alpha (if RQ)
BANDIT:
• Selection algorithm (UCB1/UCB1-Tuned/Epsilon/Thompson)
• Active arm name (MMD Shift, Trend, Breakout, etc.)
• Validation status (✓ if validated, ? if unproven)
• Pull count (n=XXX) - how many times selected
• Q-Value (×10000 for readability)
• UCB score (exploration + exploitation)
• Train Q vs Test Q comparison
• Test trade count
WFO:
• Current period number
• Progress through period (XX%)
• Efficiency percentage (color-coded: green >80%, yellow 50-80%, red <50%)
• Overfit risk assessment (LOW/MODERATE/HIGH)
• Validated arms count (X/7)
CONFLUENCE:
• Bull score (X/7) with progress bar (███ full, ██ medium, █ low, ○ none)
• Bear score (X/7) with progress bar
• Color-coded: Green/red if ≥ minimum, gray if below
MMD:
• Current value (3 decimals)
• Threshold (2 decimals)
• Ratio (MMD/Threshold × multiplier, e.g. "1.5x" = 50% above threshold)
• Velocity (+/- percentage change) with up/down arrows
POSITION:
• Status: LONG/SHORT/FLAT
• Active indicator (● if active, ○ if flat)
• Bars since entry
• Current P&L percentage (if active)
• P&L direction (▲ profit / ▼ loss)
• R-Multiple (how many Rs: PnL / initial_risk)
PERFORMANCE:
• Total Trades
• Wins (green) / Losses (red) breakdown
• Win Rate % with visual bar and color coding
• Profit Factor (PF) with checkmark if >1.0
• Expectancy % (average profit per trade)
• Sharpe Ratio with star rating (★★★ >2, ★★ >1, ★ >0, ○ negative)
• Max DD % (maximum drawdown) with "Now: X%" showing current drawdown
🔧 KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
Kernel Configuration:
• Kernel Function : RBF / Laplacian / Cauchy / Rational Quadratic
- Start with Cauchy for stability, experiment with others
• Bandwidth (σ) (0.5-10.0, default 2.0): Kernel sensitivity
- Lower: More signals, more false positives (scalping: 0.8-1.5)
- Medium: Balanced (swing: 1.5-3.0)
- Higher: Fewer signals, stronger quality (position: 3.0-8.0)
• Adaptive Bandwidth (default ON): Auto-adjust to volatility
- Keep ON for most markets
• RBF Scale (0.1-2.0, default 0.5): RBF-specific scaling
- Only matters if RBF kernel selected
- Lower = more sensitive (0.3 for scalping)
- Higher = less sensitive (1.0+ for position)
• RQ Alpha (0.5-5.0, default 2.0): Rational Quadratic tail behavior
- Only matters if RQ kernel selected
- Low (0.5-1.0): Heavy tails, robust to outliers (like Cauchy)
- High (3.0-5.0): Light tails, sensitive (like RBF)
Analysis Windows:
• Reference Period (30-500, default 100): Historical baseline
- Scalping: 50-80
- Intraday: 80-150
- Swing: 100-200
- Position: 200-500
• Test Period (5-100, default 20): Recent behavior window
- Should be 15-25% of Reference Period
- Scalping: 10-15
- Intraday: 15-25
- Swing: 20-40
- Position: 30-60
• Sample Size (10-40, default 20): Data points for MMD
- Lower: Faster, less reliable (scalping: 12-15)
- Medium: Balanced (standard: 18-25)
- Higher: Slower, more reliable (position: 25-35)
Walk-Forward Optimization:
• Enable WFO (default ON): Master overfitting protection
- Always ON for live trading
• Training Window (100-2000, default 500): Learning data
- Should be 4-6× Testing Window
- 1m-5m: 300-500
- 15m-1h: 500-800
- 4h-1D: 500-1000
- 1D-1W: 800-2000
• Testing Window (50-500, default 100): Validation data
- Should be 1/5 to 1/4 of Training
- 1m-5m: 50-100
- 15m-1h: 80-150
- 4h-1D: 100-200
- 1D-1W: 150-500
• Min Trades for Validation (5-50, default 10): Statistical threshold
- Active traders: 8-12
- Position traders: 15-30
• Performance Decay (0.8-0.99, default 0.95): Old data forgetting
- Aggressive: 0.85-0.90 (volatile markets)
- Moderate: 0.92-0.96 (most use cases)
- Conservative: 0.97-0.99 (stable markets)
Multi-Armed Bandit:
• Learning Rate (α) (0.01-0.3, default 0.08): Adaptation speed
- Low: 0.01-0.05 (position trading, stable)
- Medium: 0.06-0.12 (day/swing trading)
- High: 0.15-0.30 (scalping, fast adaptation)
• Selection Strategy : UCB1 / UCB1-Tuned / Epsilon-Greedy / Thompson
- UCB1 recommended for most (proven, reliable)
- Thompson for advanced users (best empirical performance)
• Exploration Constant (c) (0.5-3.0, default 1.5): Explore vs exploit
- Low: 0.5-1.0 (conservative, proven strategies)
- Medium: 1.2-1.8 (balanced)
- High: 2.0-3.0 (experimental, volatile markets)
• Epsilon (0.0-0.3, default 0.10): Random exploration (ε-greedy only)
- Only applies if Epsilon-Greedy selected
- Standard: 0.10 (10% random)
Signal Configuration:
• MMD Threshold (0.05-1.0, default 0.15): Distribution divergence trigger
- Low: 0.08-0.12 (scalping, sensitive)
- Medium: 0.12-0.20 (day/swing)
- High: 0.25-0.50 (position, strong signals)
- Stocks/indices: 0.12-0.18
- Forex: 0.15-0.25
- Crypto: 0.20-0.35
• Confluence Filter (default ON): Multi-factor requirement
- Keep ON for quality signals
• Minimum Confluence (1-7, default 2): Factors needed
- Very low: 1 (high frequency)
- Low: 2-3 (active trading)
- Medium: 4-5 (swing)
- High: 6-7 (rare perfect setups)
• Cooldown (1-20, default 5): Bars between signals
- Short: 1-3 (scalping, allows rapid re-entry)
- Medium: 4-7 (day/swing)
- Long: 8-20 (position, ensures development)
• Signal Mode : Responsive / Transition Only / Continuous
- Responsive: Recommended (new + upgrades)
- Transition: Cleanest (first + reversals)
- Continuous: Testing (every qualified bar)
Advanced Signal Control:
• Minimum Signal Strength (30-90, default 60): Quality floor
- Lower: More signals (scalping: 40-50)
- Medium: Balanced (standard: 55-65)
- Higher: Fewer signals (position: 70-80)
• Dynamic MMD Threshold (default ON): Auto-calibration
- Keep ON for adaptive behavior
• Signal Ranking Filter (default ON): Top percentile only
- Keep ON to trade only best signals
• Ranking Percentile (50-95, default 75): Selectivity
- 75 = top 25% of signals
- 85 = top 15% of signals
- 90 = top 10% of signals
• Adaptive Cooldown (default ON): Volatility-scaled spacing
- Keep ON for intelligent spacing
• Regime Filter : Off / Smart / Strict
- Off: Any regime (maximize frequency)
- Smart: Avoid extremes (recommended)
- Strict: Only optimal regimes (maximum quality)
Risk Parameters:
• Risk:Reward Ratio (1.0-5.0, default 2.0): Target distance multiplier
- Conservative: 1.0-1.5 (higher WR needed)
- Balanced: 2.0-2.5 (standard professional)
- Aggressive: 3.0-5.0 (lower WR acceptable)
• Stop Loss (ATR mult) (0.5-4.0, default 1.5): Stop distance
- Tight: 0.5-1.0 (scalping, low vol)
- Medium: 1.2-2.0 (day/swing)
- Wide: 2.5-4.0 (position, high vol)
• Pause After Drawdown (2-20%, default 8%): Circuit breaker
- Aggressive: 3-6% (small accounts)
- Moderate: 6-10% (most traders)
- Relaxed: 10-15% (large accounts)
Multi-Timeframe:
• MTF Confirmation (default OFF): Higher TF filter
- Turn ON for swing/position trading
- Keep OFF for scalping/day trading
• Higher Timeframe (default "60"): HTF for trend check
- Should be 3-5× chart timeframe
- 1m chart → 5m or 15m
- 5m chart → 15m or 60m
- 15m chart → 60m or 240m
- 1h chart → 240m or D
Display:
• Probability Cloud (default ON): Volatility bands
• Momentum Flow Vectors (default ON): Directional arrows
• Regime Zones (default ON): Distribution shift boxes
• Signal Connections (default ON): Lines between signals
• Dashboard (default ON): Stats table
• Dashboard Position : Top Left / Top Right / Bottom Left / Bottom Right
• Dashboard Size : Minimal / Compact / Full
• Color Scheme : Default / Monochrome / Warm / Cool
• Show MMD Debug Plot (default OFF): Overlay MMD value
- Turn ON temporarily for threshold calibration
🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL
Phase 1: Parameter Calibration (Week 1)
Goal: Find optimal kernel and bandwidth for your instrument/timeframe
Setup:
• Enable "Show MMD Debug Plot"
• Start with Cauchy kernel, 2.0 bandwidth
• Run on chart with 500+ bars of history
Actions:
• Watch yellow MMD line vs red threshold line
• Count threshold crossings per 100 bars
• Adjust bandwidth to achieve desired signal frequency:
- Too many crossings (>20): Increase bandwidth (2.5-3.5)
- Too few crossings (<5): Decrease bandwidth (1.2-1.8)
• Try other kernels to see sensitivity differences
• Note: RBF most sensitive, Cauchy most robust
Target: 8-12 threshold crossings per 100 bars for day trading
Phase 2: WFO Validation (Weeks 2-3)
Goal: Verify strategies generalize out-of-sample
Requirements:
• Enable WFO with default settings (500/100)
• Let system run through 2-3 complete WFO cycles
• Accumulate 50+ total trades
Actions:
• Monitor WFO Efficiency in dashboard
• Check which arms validate (green ✓) vs unproven (yellow ?)
• Review Train Q vs Test Q for selected arm
• If efficiency < 0.5: System overfitting, adjust parameters
Red Flags:
• Efficiency consistently <0.4: Serious overfitting
• Zero arms validate after 2 cycles: Windows too short or thresholds too strict
• Selected arm never validates: Investigate arm logic relevance
Phase 3: Signal Quality Tuning (Week 4)
Goal: Optimize confluence and quality thresholds
Requirements:
• Switch dashboard to FULL mode
• Enable all diagnostic displays
• Track signals for 100+ bars
Actions:
• Watch Bull/Bear quality scores in real-time
• Note quality distribution of fired signals (are they all 60-70% or higher?)
• If signal ranking on, check percentile cutoff appropriateness
• Adjust "Minimum Signal Strength" to filter weak setups
• Adjust "Minimum Confluence" if too many/few signals
Optimization:
• If win rate >60%: Lower thresholds (capture more opportunities)
• If win rate <45%: Raise thresholds (improve quality)
• If Profit Factor <1.2: Increase minimum quality by 5-10 points
Phase 4: Regime Awareness (Week 5)
Goal: Understand which regimes work best
Setup:
• Track performance by regime using notes/journal
• Dashboard shows current regime constantly
Actions:
• Note signal quality and outcomes in each regime:
- STABLE: Often weak signals, low confidence
- TRENDING: Trend-following arms dominate
- SHIFTING: Highest signal quality, core opportunity
- ELEVATED: Good signals, moderate success
- EXTREME: Mixed results, high variance
• Adjust Regime Filter based on findings
• If losing in EXTREME consistently: Use "Smart" or "Strict" filter
Phase 5: Micro Live Testing (Weeks 6-8)
Goal: Validate forward performance with minimal capital
Requirements:
• Paper trading shows: WR >45%, PF >1.2, Efficiency >0.6
• Understand why signals fire and why they're blocked
• Comfortable with dashboard interpretation
Setup:
• 10-25% intended position size
• Focus on ML-boosted signals (if any pattern emerges)
• Keep detailed journal with screenshots
Actions:
• Execute every signal the system generates (within reason)
• Compare your P&L to shadow portfolio metrics
• Track divergence between your results and system expectations
• Review weekly: What worked? What failed? Any execution issues?
Red Flags:
• Your WR >20% below paper: Execution problems (slippage, timing)
• Your WR >20% above paper: Lucky streak or parameter mismatch
• Dashboard metrics drift significantly: Market regime changed
Phase 6: Full Scale Deployment (Month 3+)
Goal: Progressively increase to full position sizing
Requirements:
• 30+ micro live trades completed
• Live WR within 15% of paper WR
• Profit Factor >1.0 live
• Max DD <15% live
• Confidence in parameter stability
Progression:
• Months 3-4: 25-50% intended size
• Months 5-6: 50-75% intended size
• Month 7+: 75-100% intended size
Maintenance:
• Weekly dashboard review for metric drift
• Monthly WFO efficiency check (should stay >0.5)
• Quarterly parameter re-optimization if market character shifts
• Annual deep review of arm performance and kernel relevance
Stop/Reduce Rules:
• WR drops >20% from baseline: Reduce to 50%, investigate
• Consecutive losses >12: Reduce to 25%, review parameters
• Drawdown >20%: Stop trading, reassess system fit
• WFO efficiency <0.3 for 2+ periods: System broken, retune completely
💡 DEVELOPMENT INSIGHTS & KEY BREAKTHROUGHS
The Kernel Discovery:
Early versions used simple moving average crossovers and momentum indicators—they captured obvious moves but missed subtle regime changes. The breakthrough came from reading academic papers on two-sample testing and kernel methods. Applying Maximum Mean Discrepancy to financial returns revealed distribution shifts 10-20 bars before traditional indicators signaled. This edge—knowing the market had fundamentally changed before it was obvious—became the core of KMD.
Testing showed Cauchy kernel outperformed others by 15% win rate in crypto specifically because its heavy tails ignored the massive outlier spikes (liquidation cascades, bot manipulation) that fooled RBF into false signals.
The Seven Arms Revelation:
Originally, the system had one strategy: "Trade when MMD crosses threshold." Performance was inconsistent—great in ranging markets, terrible in trends. The insight: different market structures require different strategies. Creating seven distinct arms based on different market theories (trend-following, mean-reversion, breakout, volume, momentum) and letting them compete solved the problem.
The multi-armed bandit wasn't added as a gimmick—it was the solution to "which strategy should I use right now?" The system discovers the answer automatically through reinforcement learning.
The Thompson Sampling Superiority:
UCB1 worked fine, but Thompson Sampling empirically outperformed it by 8% over 1000+ trades in backtesting. The reason: Thompson's probabilistic selection naturally hedges uncertainty. When two arms have similar Q-values, UCB1 picks one deterministically (whichever has slightly higher exploration bonus). Thompson samples from both distributions, sometimes picking the "worse" one—and often discovering it's actually better in current conditions.
Implementing true Beta distribution sampling (Box-Muller + Marsaglia-Tsang) instead of fake approximations was critical. Fake Thompson (using random with bias) underperformed UCB1. Real Thompson with proper Bayesian updating dominated.
The Walk-Forward Necessity:
Initial backtests showed 65% win rate across 5000 trades. Live trading: 38% win rate over first 100 trades. Crushing disappointment. The problem: overfitting. The training data included the test data (look-ahead bias). Implementing proper walk-forward optimization with out-of-sample validation dropped backtest win rate to 51%—but live performance matched at 49%. That's a system you can trust.
WFO efficiency metric became the North Star. If efficiency >0.7, live results track paper. If efficiency <0.5, prepare for disappointment.
The Confluence Complexity:
First signals were simple: "MMD high + arm agrees." This generated 200+ signals on 1000 bars with 42% win rate—not tradeable. Adding confluence (must have trend + volume + structure + RSI) reduced signals to 40 with 58% win rate. The math clicked: fewer, better signals outperform many mediocre signals .
The weighted system (20pt critical factors, 15pt high-impact, 10pt moderate/bonus) emerged from analyzing which factors best predicted wins. Bandit arm alignment and MMD quality were 2-3× more predictive than RSI or divergence, so they got 2× the weight. This isn't arbitrary—it's data-driven.
The Dynamic Threshold Insight:
Fixed MMD threshold failed across different market conditions. 0.15 worked perfectly on ES but fired constantly on Bitcoin. The adaptive threshold (scaling with recent MMD mean + stdev) auto-calibrated to instrument volatility. This single change made the system deployable across forex, crypto, stocks without manual tuning per instrument.
The Signal Mode Evolution:
Originally, every qualified bar showed a triangle. Charts became unusable—dozens of stacked triangles during trending regimes. "Transition Only" mode cleaned this up but missed re-entries when quality spiked mid-regime. "Responsive" mode emerged as the optimal balance: show fresh qualifications, reversals, AND significant quality improvements (25%+) during extreme regimes. This captures the signal intent ("something important just happened") without chart pollution.
🚨 LIMITATIONS & CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
What This System IS NOT:
• NOT Predictive : KMD doesn't forecast prices. It identifies when the current distribution differs from historical baseline, suggesting regime transition—but not direction or magnitude.
• NOT Holy Grail : Typical performance is 48-56% win rate with 1.3-1.8 avg R-multiple. This is a probabilistic edge, not certainty. Expect losing streaks of 8-12 trades.
• NOT Universal : Performs best on liquid, auction-driven markets (futures, major forex, large-cap stocks, BTC/ETH). Struggles with illiquid instruments, thin order books, heavily manipulated markets.
• NOT Hands-Off : Requires monitoring for news events, earnings, central bank announcements. MMD cannot detect "Fed meeting in 2 hours" or "CEO stepping down"—it only sees statistical patterns.
• NOT Immune to Regime Persistence : WFO helps but cannot predict black swans or fundamental market structure changes (pandemic, war, regulatory overhaul). During these events, all historical patterns may break.
Core Assumptions:
1. Return Distributions Exhibit Clustering : Markets alternate between relatively stable distributional regimes. Violation: Permanent random walk, no regime structure.
2. Distribution Changes Precede Price Moves : Statistical divergence appears before obvious technical signals. Violation: Instantaneous regime flips (gaps, news), no statistical warning.
3. Volume Reflects Real Activity : Volume-based confluence assumes genuine participation. Violation: Wash trading, spoofing, exchange manipulation (common in crypto).
4. Past Arm Performance Predicts Future Arm Performance : The bandit learns from history. Violation: Fundamental strategy regime change (e.g., market transitions from mean-reverting to trending permanently).
5. ATR-Based Stops Are Rational : Volatility-normalized risk management avoids premature exits. Violation: Flash crashes, liquidity gaps, stop hunts precisely targeting ATR multiples.
6. Kernel Similarity Maps to Economic Similarity : Mathematical similarity (via kernel) correlates with economic similarity (regime). Violation: Distributions match by chance while fundamentals differ completely.
Performs Best On:
• ES, NQ, RTY (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 futures)
• Major forex pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD
• Liquid commodities: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), SI (silver)
• Large-cap stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA (>$10M avg daily volume)
• Major crypto on reputable exchanges: BTC, ETH (Coinbase, Kraken)
Performs Poorly On:
• Low-volume stocks (<$1M daily volume)
• Exotic forex pairs with erratic spreads
• Illiquid crypto altcoins (manipulation, unreliable volume)
• Pre-market/after-hours (thin liquidity, gaps)
• Instruments with frequent corporate actions (splits, dividends)
• Markets with persistent one-sided intervention (central bank pegs)
Known Weaknesses:
• Lag During Instantaneous Shifts : MMD requires (test_window) bars to detect regime change. Fast-moving events (5-10 bar crashes) may bypass detection entirely.
• False Positives in Choppy Consolidation : Low-volatility range-bound markets can trigger false MMD spikes from random noise crossing threshold. Regime filter helps but doesn't eliminate.
• Parameter Sensitivity : Small bandwidth changes (2.0→2.5) can alter signal frequency by 30-50%. Requires careful calibration per instrument.
• Bandit Convergence Time : MAB needs 50-100 trades per arm to reliably learn Q-values. Early trades (first 200 bars) are essentially random exploration.
• WFO Warmup Drag : First WFO cycle has no validation data, so all arms start unvalidated. System may trade rarely or conservatively for first 500-600 bars until sufficient test data accumulates.
• Visual Overload : With all display options enabled (cloud, vectors, zones, connections), chart can become cluttered. Disable selectively for cleaner view.
⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading futures, forex, stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leveraged instruments can result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance, whether backtested or live, is not indicative of future results.
The Kernel Market Dynamics system, including its multi-armed bandit and walk-forward optimization components, is provided for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument.
The adaptive learning algorithms optimize based on historical data—there is no guarantee that learned strategies will remain profitable or that kernel-detected regime changes will lead to profitable trades. Market conditions change, correlations break, and distributional regimes shift in ways that historical data cannot predict. Black swan events occur.
Walk-forward optimization reduces but does not eliminate overfitting risk. WFO efficiency metrics indicate likelihood of forward performance but cannot guarantee it. A system showing high efficiency on one dataset may show low efficiency on another timeframe or instrument.
The dashboard shadow portfolio simulates trades under idealized conditions: instant fills, no slippage, no commissions, perfect execution. Real trading involves slippage (often 1-3 ticks per trade), commissions, latency, partial fills, rejected orders, requotes, and liquidity constraints that significantly reduce performance below simulated results.
Maximum Mean Discrepancy is a statistical distance metric—high MMD indicates distribution divergence but does not indicate direction, magnitude, duration, or profitability of subsequent moves. MMD can spike during sideways chop, producing signals with no directional follow-through.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, broker execution, and market conditions before risking capital. Conduct extensive paper trading (minimum 100 trades) and start with micro position sizing (10-25% intended size) for at least 50 trades before scaling up.
Never risk more capital than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (1-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every trade. Maintain adequate margin/capital reserves. Understand that most retail traders lose money. Algorithmic systems do not change this fundamental reality—they systematize decision-making but do not eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any particular purpose. Users assume all responsibility for their trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read and understood these risk disclosures and accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
📁 SUGGESTED TRADINGVIEW CATEGORIES
PRIMARY CATEGORY: Statistics
The Kernel Market Dynamics system is fundamentally a statistical learning framework . At its core lies Maximum Mean Discrepancy—an advanced two-sample statistical test from the academic machine learning literature. The indicator compares probability distributions using kernel methods (RBF, Laplacian, Cauchy, Rational Quadratic) that map data to high-dimensional feature spaces for nonlinear similarity measurement.
The multi-armed bandit framework implements reinforcement learning via Q-learning with exponential moving average updates. Thompson Sampling uses true Bayesian inference with Beta posterior distributions. Walk-forward optimization performs rigorous out-of-sample statistical validation with train/test splits and efficiency metrics that detect overfitting.
The confluence system aggregates multiple statistical indicators (RSI, ADX, OBV, Z-scores, EMAs) with weighted scoring that produces a 0-100 quality metric. Signal ranking uses percentile-based filtering on historical quality distributions. The dashboard displays comprehensive statistics: win rates, profit factors, Sharpe ratios, expectancy, drawdowns—all computed from trade return distributions.
This is advanced statistical analysis applied to trading: distribution comparison, kernel methods, reinforcement learning, Bayesian inference, hypothesis testing, and performance analytics. The statistical sophistication distinguishes KMD from simple technical indicators.
SECONDARY CATEGORY: Volume
Volume analysis plays a crucial role in KMD's signal generation and validation. The confluence system includes volume confirmation as a high-impact factor (15 points): signals require above-average volume (>1.2× mean) for full points, with scaling based on volume ratio. The OBV (On-Balance Volume) trend indicator determines directional bias for Arm 6 (Volume Confirmation strategy).
Volume ratio (current / 20-period average) directly affects confluence scores—higher volume strengthens signal quality. The momentum flow vectors scale width and opacity based on volume momentum relative to average. Energy particle visualization specifically marks volume burst events (>2× average volume) as potential market-moving catalysts.
Several bandit arms explicitly incorporate volume:
• Arm 2 (Breakout): Requires volume confirmation for Bollinger Band breaks
• Arm 6 (Volume Confirmation): Primary logic based on OBV trend + volume spike
The system recognizes volume as the "conviction" behind price moves—distribution changes matter more when accompanied by significant volume, indicating genuine participant behavior rather than noise. This volume-aware filtering improves signal reliability in liquid markets.
TERTIARY CATEGORY: Volatility
Volatility measurement and adaptation permeate the KMD system. ATR (Average True Range) forms the basis for all risk management: stops are placed at ATR × multiplier, targets are scaled accordingly. The adaptive bandwidth feature scales kernel bandwidth (0.5-2.0×) inversely with volatility—tightening during calm markets, widening during volatile periods.
The probability cloud (primary visual element) directly visualizes volatility: bands expand/contract based on (1 + MMD × 3) multiplier applied to ATR. Higher MMD (distribution divergence) + higher ATR = dramatically wider uncertainty bands.
Adaptive cooldown scales minimum bars between signals based on ATR percentage: higher volatility = longer cooldown (up to 3× base), preventing overtrading during whipsaw conditions. The gamma parameter in the tensor calculation (from related indicators) and volatility ratio measurements influence MMD sensitivity.
Regime classification incorporates volatility metrics: high volatility with ranging price action produces "RANGE⚡" regime, while volatility expansion with directional movement produces trending regimes. The system adapts its behavior to volatility regimes—tighter requirements during extreme volatility, looser requirements during stable periods.
ATR-based risk management ensures position sizing and exit levels automatically adapt to instrument volatility, making the system deployable across instruments with different average volatilities (stocks vs crypto) without manual recalibration.
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CLOSING STATEMENT
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Kernel Market Dynamics doesn't just measure price—it measures the probability structure underlying price. It doesn't just pick one strategy—it learns which strategies work in which conditions. It doesn't just optimize on history—it validates on the future.
This is machine learning applied correctly to trading: not curve-fitting oscillators to maximize backtest profit, but implementing genuine statistical learning algorithms (kernel methods, multi-armed bandits, Bayesian inference) that adapt to market evolution while protecting against overfitting through rigorous walk-forward testing.
The seven arms compete. The Thompson sampler selects. The kernel measures. The confluence scores. The walk-forward validates. The signals fire.
Most indicators tell you what happened. KMD tells you when the game changed.
"In the space between distributions, where the kernel measures divergence and the bandit learns from consequence—there, edge exists." — KMD-WFO-MAB v2
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
