Adaptive Volatility-Scaled Oscillator [AVSO] (Zeiierman)█ Overview
The Adaptive Volatility-Scaled Oscillator (AVSO) is a dynamic trading indicator that measures and visualizes volatility-adjusted market behavior. By scaling various metrics (such as volume, price changes, standard deviation, ATR, and Yang-Zhang volatility) and applying adaptive smoothing, AVSO helps traders identify market conditions where volatility deviates significantly from the norm.
This indicator uses standardized scaling (Z-Score logic) to highlight periods of abnormally high or low volatility relative to recent history. With gradient coloring and clear volatility zones, AVSO provides a visually intuitive way to analyze market volatility and adapt trading strategies accordingly.
█ How It Works
⚪ Scaling Metrics: The indicator scales user-selected metrics (e.g., volume, ATR, standard deviation) relative to the market and price, providing a standardized volatility measure.
⚪ Z-Score Standardization: The scaled metric is normalized using a Z-Score to measure how far current volatility deviates from its recent mean.
Positive Z-Score: Above-average volatility.
Negative Z-Score: Below-average volatility.
⚪ Adaptive Smoothing: An Adaptive EMA smooths the Z-Score, dynamically adjusting its length based on the strength of the volatility. Stronger deviations result in shorter smoothing, increasing responsiveness.
█ Unique Feature: Yang-Zhang Volatility
The Yang-Zhang volatility estimator sets this indicator apart by providing a more robust and accurate measure of volatility compared to traditional methods like ATR or standard deviation.
⚪ What Makes Yang-Zhang Volatility Unique?
Comprehensive Calculation: It combines overnight price gaps (log returns from the previous close to the current open) and intraday price movements (high, low, and close).
Accurate for Gapped Markets: Traditional volatility measures can misrepresent price movement when significant gaps occur between sessions. Yang-Zhang accounts for these gaps, making it highly reliable for assets prone to overnight price jumps, such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and futures.
Adaptable to Real Market Conditions : By including both close-to-open returns and intraday volatility, it provides a balanced and adaptive measure that captures the full volatility picture.
⚪ Why This Matters to Traders
Better Volatility Insights: Yang-Zhang offers a clearer view of true market volatility, especially in markets with price gaps or uneven trading sessions.
Improved Trade Timing: By identifying volatility spikes and calm periods more effectively, traders can time their entries and exits with greater confidence.
█ How to Use
Identify High and Low Volatility
A high Z-Score (>2) indicates significant market volatility. This can signal momentum-driven moves, breakouts, or areas of increased risk.
A low Z-Score (<-2) suggests low volatility or a calm market environment. This often occurs before a potential breakout or reversal.
Trade Signals
High Volatility Zones (background highlight): Monitor for potential breakouts, trend continuations, or reversals.
Low Volatility Zones: Anticipate range-bound conditions or upcoming volatility spikes.
█ Settings
Source: Select the price source for scaling calculations (close, high, low, open).
Metric Measure: Choose the volatility measure:
Volume: Scales raw volume.
Close: Uses closing price changes.
Standard Deviation: Price dispersion.
ATR: Average True Range.
Yang: Yang-Zhang volatility estimate.
Bars to Analyze: Number of historical bars used to calculate the mean and standard deviation of the scaled metric.
ATR / Standard Deviation Period: Lookback period for ATR or Standard Deviation calculation.
Yang Volatility Period: Period for the Yang-Zhang volatility estimator.
Smoothing Period: Base smoothing length for the adaptive smoothing line.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Volatilitystrategy
Overnight Effect High Volatility Crypto (AiBitcoinTrend)👽 Overview of the Strategy
This strategy leverages the overnight effect in the cryptocurrency market, specifically targeting the two-hour window from 21:00 UTC to 23:00 UTC. The strategy is designed to be applied only during periods of high volatility, which is determined using historical volatility data. This approach, inspired by research from Padyšák and Vojtko (2022), aims to capitalize on statistically significant return patterns observed during these hours.
Deep Backtesting with a High Volatility Filter
Deep Backtesting without a High Volatility Filter
👽 How the Strategy Works
Volatility Calculation:
Each day at 00:00 UTC, the strategy calculates the 30-day historical volatility of crypto returns (typically Bitcoin). The historical volatility is the standard deviation of the log returns over the past 30 days, representing the market's recent volatility level.
Median Volatility Benchmark:
The median of the 30-day historical volatility is calculated over a 365-day period (one year). This median acts as a benchmark to classify each day as either:
👾 High Volatility: When the current 30-day volatility exceeds the median volatility.
👾 Low Volatility: When the current 30-day volatility is below the median.
Trading Rule:
If the day is classified as a High Volatility Day, the strategy executes the following trades:
👾 Buy at 21:00 UTC.
👾 Sell at 23:00 UTC.
Trade Execution Details:
The strategy uses a 0.02% fee per trade.
Each trade is executed with 25% of the available capital. This allocation helps manage risk while allowing for compounding returns.
Rationale:
The returns during the 22:00 and 23:00 UTC hours have been found to be statistically significant during high volatility periods. The overnight effect is believed to drive this phenomenon due to the asynchronous closing hours of global financial markets. This creates unique trading opportunities in the cryptocurrency market, where exchanges remain open 24/7.
👽 Market Context and Global Time Zone Impact
👾 Why 21:00 to 23:00 UTC?
During this window, major traditional financial markets are closed:
NYSE (New York) closes at 21:00 UTC.
London and European markets are closed during these hours.
Asian markets (Tokyo, Hong Kong, etc.) open later, leaving this window largely unaffected by traditional trading flows.
This global market inactivity creates a period where significant moves can occur in the cryptocurrency market, particularly during high volatility.
👽 Strategy Parameters
Volatility Period: 30 days.
The lookback period for calculating historical volatility.
Median Period: 365 days.
The lookback period for calculating the median volatility benchmark.
Entry Time: 21:00 UTC.
Adjust this to your local time if necessary (e.g., 16:00 in New York, 22:00 in Stockholm).
Exit Time: 23:00 UTC.
Adjust this to your local time if necessary (e.g., 18:00 in New York, 00:00 midnight in Stockholm).
👽 Benefits of the Strategy
Seasonality Effect:
The strategy captures consistent patterns driven by the overnight effect and high volatility periods.
Risk Reduction:
Since trades are executed during a specific window and only on high volatility days, the strategy helps mitigate exposure to broader market risk.
Simplicity and Efficiency:
The strategy is moderately complex, making it accessible for traders while offering significant returns.
Global Applicability:
Suitable for traders worldwide, with clear guidelines on adjusting for local time zones.
👽 Considerations
Market Conditions: The strategy works best in a high-volatility environment.
Execution: Requires precise timing to enter and exit trades at the specified hours.
Time Zone Adjustments: Ensure you convert UTC times accurately based on your location to execute trades at the correct local times.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
