Autocorrelation OscillatorReleasing the autocorrelation oscillator.
NOTE! Please be sure to read the description. This is a theoretical indicator and its important to understand the theory behind its use.
About the indicator:
Before getting into the indicator and its functionality, its important to discuss the theoretical underpinnings of the indicator.
The autocorrelation oscillator operates on two theories of market behaviour that go hand in hand. Those theories are the market efficiency theory and the random walk theory (or hypothesis ).
Market efficiency theory: The market efficiency theory or "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)" postulates that all available information is reflected in a ticker's price almost instantaneously and thus it is impossible for an investor or trader to get ahead of the market because we cannot respond to the speed that the market responds. Of course, there are many holes in this theory, the most notable being that the market is a function of humans. Absent humans and their technological integrations into the market, the market would cease to react at all. But that's besides the point. This is a widely accepted theory and one in which I can mathematically observe through statistical tests. The truth behind this theory is the market is efficient for responding to evolving economic and financial information, likely owning to huge amounts of computer and algorithmic integration into trading, and thus the market is more efficient than the average person is capable (absent computerized algorithms and integration) of ascertaining nuanced financial and economic circumstances. By the time we the people can appraise information, the market has already acted on it. And that is the main premise of the EMH.
The next theory is the Random Walk Theory or Hypothesis (RWH). This builds on the EMH and essentially postulates that the market reacts so quickly to price in current circumstances that it is too random for people to truly exploit and benefit from.
The result of these two theories is two-fold and can be summarized as such:
a) The market behaves in a chaotic fashion that is seemingly random and is incapable of being predicted effectively; and
b) The market is more efficient than a person in incorporating key fundamental information, contributing to the high degree of seemingly random behaviour.
So, how does this help us?
It is said, because of the EMH and the RWH, the only way to truly exploit the market for profit is by:
a) Buying and holding and investing under the bias that stocks will eventually rise in value; or
b) For short term trading, exploiting the pricing anomalies within the data.
So how do we exploit pricing anomalies within the data?
Well, in my own research on market efficiency and behaviour, I have identified many ways of figuring out some anomalies. One of the most effective ways is by looking at simple correlation of lagged values, or autocorrelation for short.
What is autocorrelation and how to use it in relation to EMH and RWH?
Autocorrelation refers to the correlative relationship among the values in a series. Put simply, its the relationship of the same variable over time. For example, if we wanted to look at the auto-correlation of a ticker's high price, we would take, say, 5 to 7 previous high prices and correlate them with the current high price in a series dataset. If the EMH and RWH are true, the correlation among all the variables should have an average less than 0.5 or greater than -0.5. This would indicate true randomness in the dataset and thus an efficient market.
However, if the average of all of the sum's of these correlations are greater than or equal to 0.5 or less than or equal to -0.5, that indicates there is a high degree of autocorrelation and thus the EMH ad RWH is being invalidated as the market is not operating efficiently. This is an anomaly and this anomaly can be exploited.
So how do we exploit it?
Well, when the EMH and RWH hypothesis is being invalidated, we can expect what I coin as a "Regression to Chaos" i.e. the market will revert back to an efficient equilibrium state. So if we have a high correlation of the lagged variables and a strong uptrend or downtrend correlation, we can expect an inefficient market to correct back to an efficient market (i.e. have a reversal from the current trend).
So how does the indicator work?
The indicator measures the lagged correlation of the previous 5 highs and lows of a ticker. A high correlation among all of the highs and lows that exceeds 0.8 would be an invalidation of the EMH and RWH and thus signal a correction to come (i.e. a Regression to Chaos).
The indicator will display this by changing colour. Red for a bearish reversal and green for a bullish. Let's take a look below using the ticker MSFT:
Above we can see the indicator identifying observed inefficiencies within the MSFT ticker on the 1 minute timeframe. The green vertical lines correspond to potential bullish reversals as a result of bearish inefficiencies, the red correspond to bearish reversals as a result of bullish inefficiencies.
You can see these lead to reversals within the ticker.
Components of the indicator:
In the chart above we see the following that are being indicated by arrows:
Red Arrows: Show the identified inefficiencies. Red for bullish inefficiencies (i.e. bearish reversal), green for bearish inefficiencies (i.e. bullish reversal)
Yellow Arrow: The lagged variable chart. This will display the current correlation among all the lagged variables the indicator is assessing.
Teal arrow: Displays the current strength of the trend by correlating the trend to time. A strong negative value (i.e. a value less than or equal to -0.5) indicates a strong downtrend, a strong positive value indicates the inverse.
You can unselect the data-tables in the settings menu if you just want to view the correlation line itself. This part of the indicator is customizable. You can also define the lookback period; however, it is strongly recommended to leave it at 14 as this maintains the use of this indicator as an oscillator.
And that is the indicator! Let me know your comments, questions and feedback below.
Safe trades everyone!
In den Scripts nach "通达信+选股公式+换手率+0.5+源码" suchen
Ticker Correlation Reference IndicatorHello,
I am super excited to be releasing this Ticker Correlation assessment indicator. This is a big one so let us get right into it!
Inspiration:
The inspiration for this indicator came from a similar indicator by Balipour called the Correlation with P-Value and Confidence Interval. It’s a great indicator, you should check it out!
I used it quite a lot when looking for correlations; however, there were some limitations to this indicator’s functionality that I wanted. So I decided to make my own indicator that had the functionality I wanted. I have been using this for some time but decided to actual spruce it up a bit and make it user friendly so that I could share it publically. So let me get into what this indicator does and, most importantly, the expanded functionality of this indicator.
What it does:
This indicator determines the correlation between 2 separate tickers. The user selects the two tickers they wish to compare and it performs a correlation assessment over a defaulted 14 period length and displays the results. However, the indicator takes this much further. The complete functionality of this indicator includes the following:
1. Assesses the correlation of all 4 ticker variables (Open, High, Low and Close) over a user defined period of time (defaulted to 14);
2. Converts both tickers to a Z-Score in order to standardize the data and provide a side by side comparison;
3. Displays areas of high and low correlation between all 4 variables;
4. Looks back over the consistency of the relationship (is correlation consistent among the two tickers or infrequent?);
5. Displays the variance in the correlation (there may be a statistically significant relationship, but if there is a high variance, it means the relationship is unstable);
6. Permits manual conversion between prices; and
7. Determines the degree of statistical significance (be it stable, unstable or non-existent).
I will discuss each of these functions below.
Function 1: Assesses the correlation of all 4 variables.
The only other indicator that does this only determines the correlation of the close price. However, correlation between all 4 variables varies. The correlation between open prices, high prices, low prices and close prices varies in statistically significant ways. As such, this indicator plots the correlation of all 4 ticker variables and displays each correlation.
Assessing this matters because sometimes a stock may not have the same magnitude in highs and lows as another stock (one stock may be more bullish, i.e. attain higher highs in comparison to another stock). Close price is helpful but does not pain the full picture. As such, the indicator displays the correlation relationship between all 4 variables (image below):
Function 2: Converts both tickers to Z-Score
Z-Score is a way of standardizing data. It simply measures how far a stock is trading in relation to its mean. As such, it is a way to express both tickers on a level playing field. Z-Score was also chosen because the Z-Score Values (0 – 4) also provide an appropriate scale to plot correlation lines (which range from 0 to 1).
The primary ticker (Ticker 1) is plotted in blue, the secondary comparison ticker (Ticker 2) is plotted in a colour changing format (which will be discussed below). See the image below:
Function 3: Displays areas of high and low correlation
While Ticker 1 is plotted in a static blue, Ticker 2 (the comparison ticker) is plotted in a dynamic, colour changing format. It will display areas of high correlation (i.e. areas with a P value greater than or equal to 0.9 or less than and equal to -0.9) in green, areas of moderate correlation in white. Areas of low correlation (between 0.4 and 0 or -0.4 and 0) are in red. (see image below):
Function 4: Checks consistency of relationship
While at the time of assessing a stock there very well maybe a high correlation, whether that correlation is consistent or not is the question. The indicator employs the use of the SMA function to plot the average correlation over a defined period of time. If the correlation is consistently high, the SMA should be within an area of statistical significance (over 0.5 or under -0.5). If the relationship is inconsistent, the SMA will read a lower value than the actual correlation.
You can see an example of this when you compare ETH to Tezos in the image below:
You can see that the correlation between ETH and Tezo’s on the high level seems to be inconsistent. While the current correlation is significant, the SMA is showing that the average correlation between the highs is actually less than 0.5.
The indicator also tells the user narratively the degree of consistency in the statistical relationship. This will be discussed later.
Function 5: Displays the variance
When it comes to correlation, variance is important. Variance simply means the distance between the highest and lowest value. The indicator assess the variance. A high degree of variance (i.e. a number surpassing 0.5 or greater) generally means the consistency and stability of the relationship is in issue. If there is a high variance, it means that the two tickers, while seemingly significantly correlated, tend to deviate from each other quite extensively.
The indicator will tell the user the variance in the narrative bar at the bottom of the chart (see image below):
Function 6: Permits manual conversion of price
One thing that I frequently want and like to do is convert prices between tickers. If I am looking at SPX and I want to calculate a price on SPY, I want to be able to do that quickly. This indicator permits you to do that by employing a regression based formula to convert Ticker 1 to Ticker 2.
The user can actually input which variable they would like to convert, whether they want to convert Ticker 1 Close to Ticker 2 Close, or Ticker 1 High to Ticker 2 High, or low or open.
To do this, open the settings and click “Permit Manual Conversion”. This will then take the current Ticker 1 Close price and convert it to Ticker 2 based on the regression calculations.
If you want to know what a specific price on Ticker 1 is on Ticker 2, simply click the “Allow Manual Price Input” variable and type in the price of Ticker 1 you want to know on Ticker 2. It will perform the calculation for you and will also list the standard error of the calculation.
Below is an example of calculating a SPY price using SPX data:
Above, the indicator was asked to convert an SPX price of 4,100 to a SPY price. The result was 408.83 with a standard error of 4.31, meaning we can expect 4,100 to fall within 408.83 +/- 4.31 on SPY.
Function 7: Determines the degree of statistical significance
The indicator will provide the user with a narrative output of the degree of statistical significance. The indicator looks beyond simply what the correlation is at the time of the assessment. It uses the SMA and the highest and lowest function to make an assessment of the stability of the statistical relationship and then indicates this to the user. Below is an example of IWM compared to SPY:
You will see, the indicator indicates that, while there is a statistically significant positive relationship, the relationship is somewhat unstable and inconsistent. Not only does it tell you this, but it indicates the degree of inconsistencies by listing the variance and the range of the inconsistencies.
And below is SPY to DIA:
SPY to BTCUSD:
And finally SPY to USDCAD Currency:
Other functions:
The indicator will also plot the raw or smoothed correlation result for the Open, High, Low or Close price. The default is to close price and smoothed. Smoothed just means it is displaying the SMA over the raw correlation score. Unsmoothing it will show you the raw correlation score.
The user also has the ability to toggle on and off the correlation table and the narrative table so that they can just review the chart (the side by side comparison of the 2 tickers).
Customizability
All of the functions are customizable for the most part. The user can determine the length of lookback, etc. The default parameters for all are 14. The only thing not customizable is the assessment used for determining the stability of a statistical relationship (set at 100 candle lookback) and the regression analysis used to convert price (10 candle lookback).
User Notes and important application tips:
#1: If using the manual calculation function to convert price, it is recommended to use this on the hourly or daily chart.
#2: Leaving pre-market data on can cause some errors. It is recommended to use the indicator with regular market hours enabled and extended market hours disabled.
#3: No ticker is off limits. You can compare anything against anything! Have fun with it and experiment!
Non-Indicator Specific Discussions:
Why does correlation between stocks mater?
This can matter for a number of reasons. For investors, it is good to diversify your portfolio and have a good array of stocks that operate somewhat independently of each other. This will allow you to see how your investments compare to each other and the degree of the relationship.
Another function may be getting exposure to more expensive tickers. I am guilty of trading IWM to gain exposure to SPY at a reduced cost basis :-).
What is a statistically significant correlation?
The rule of thumb is anything 0.5 or greater is considered statistically significant. The ideal setup is 0.9 or more as the effect is almost identical. That said, a lot of factors play into statistical significance. For example, the consistency and variance are 2 important factors most do not consider when ascertaining significance. Perhaps IWM and SPY are significantly correlated today, but is that a reliable relationship and can that be counted on as a rule?
These are things that should be considered when trading one ticker against another and these are things that I have attempted to address with this indicator!
Final notes:
I know I usually do tutorial videos. I have not done one here, but I will. Check back later for this.
I hope you enjoy the indicator and please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions!
Safe trades all!
Market Structure - By LeviathanThis indicator helps you identify market structure by plotting swing highs and lows (HH, LH, HL, LL), BOS/CHOCH and 0.5 retracement levels. Other functionalities will be added in future updates.
Indicator Settings Overview
SWING LENGTH
The number of leftbars and rightbars when searching for swing points. The lower the value, the more swing points are shown and the higher the value, the less swing points are shown. I suggest adjusting it to fit your style and when switching between different timeframes.
BOS CONFIRMATION
Choose whether a Break of Structure is determined by a candle close or a wick breaching previous swing point. Using the "Wick" confirmation option will result in more breaks of structure.
CHOCH
Turning this ON renames the first counter trend Break of Structure (BOS) to CHoCH (Change of Character) and therefore signaling a possible trend shift.
SHOW 0.5 RETRACEMENT LEVEL
This will show a level halfway between a swing low and a swing high of an expansion move, which can act as an approximate retracement point if the trend continues.
In uptrends, 0.5 level is drawn between Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs ( HHs ). Long entries can be placed around that level if you suspect that the uptrend will continue.
In downtrends, 0.5 level is drawn between Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LLs). Short entries can be placed around that level if you suspect that the downtrend will continue.
Writer Extendible Option [Loxx]These options can be exercised at their initial maturity date /I but are extended to T2 if the option is out-of-the-money at ti. The payoff from a writer-extendible call option at time T1 (T1 < T2) is (via "The Complete Guide to Option Pricing Formulas")
c(S, X1, X2, t1, T2) = (S - X1) if S>= X1 else cBSM(S, X2, T2-T1)
and for a writer-extendible put is
c(S, X1, X2, T1, T2) = (X1 - S) if S< X1 else pBSM(S, X2, T2-T1)
Writer-Extendible Call
c = cBSM(S, X1, T1) + Se^(b-r)T2 * M(Z1, -Z2; -p) - X2e^-rT2 * M(Z1 - vT^0.5, -Z2 + vT^0.5; -p)
Writer-Extendible Put
p = cBSM(S, X1, T1) + X2e^-rT2 * M(-Z1 + vT^0.5, Z2 - vT^0.5; -p) - Se^(b-r)T2 * M(-Z1, Z2; -p)
b=r options on non-dividend paying stock
b=r-q options on stock or index paying a dividend yield of q
b=0 options on futures
b=r-rf currency options (where rf is the rate in the second currency)
Inputs
Asset price ( S )
Initial strike price ( X1 )
Extended strike price ( X2 )
Initial time to maturity ( t1 )
Extended time to maturity ( T2 )
Risk-free rate ( r )
Cost of carry ( b )
Volatility ( s )
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Numerical Greeks Output
Delta
Elasticity
Gamma
DGammaDvol
GammaP
Vega
DvegaDvol
VegaP
Theta (1 day)
Rho
Rho futures option
Phi/Rho2
Carry
DDeltaDvol
Speed
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
American Approximation Bjerksund & Stensland 1993 [Loxx]American Approximation Bjerksund & Stensland 1993 is an American Options pricing model. This indicator also includes numerical greeks. You can compare the output of the American Approximation to the Black-Scholes-Merton value on the output of the options panel.
The Bjerksund and Stensland (1993) approximation can be used to price American options on stocks, futures, and currencies. The method is analytical and extremely computer-efficient. Bjerksund and Stensland's approximation is based on an exercise strategy corresponding to a flat boundary / (trigger price). Numerical investigation indicates that the Bjerksund and Stensland model is somewhat more accurate for long-term options than the Barone-Adesi and Whaley model. (The Complete Guide to Option Pricing Formulas)
C = alpha * X^beta - alpha Ø(S, T, beta, I, I) + Ø(S, T, I, I, I) - Ø(S, T, I, X, I) - XØ(S, T, 0, I, I) + XØ(S, T, 0, X, I)
where
alpha = (1 - X) * I^-beta
beta = (1/2 - b/v^2) + ((b/v^2 - 1/2)^2 + 2*(r/v^2))^0.5
The function Ø(S, T, y, H, I) is given by
Ø(S, T, gamma, H, I) = e^lambda * S^gamma * (N(d) - (I/S)^k * N(d - (2 * log(I/S)) / v*T^0.5))
lambda = (-r + gamma * b + 1/2 * gamma(gamma - 1) * v^2) * T
d = (log(S/H) + (b + (gamma - 1/2) * v^2) * T) / (v * T^0.5)
k = 2*b/v^2 + (2 * gamma - 1)
and the trigger price I is defined as
I = B0 + (B(+infi) - B0) * (1 - e^h(T))
h(T) = -(b*T + 2*v*T^0.5) * (B0 / (B(+infi) - B0))
B(+infi) = (B / (B - 1)) * X
B0 = max(X, (r / (r - b)) * X)
If s > I, it is optimal to exercise the option immediately, and the value must be equal to the intrinsic value of S - X. On the other hand, if b > r, it will never be optimal to exercise the American call option before expiration, and the value can be found using the generalized BSM formula. The value of the American put is given by the Bjerksund and Stensland put-call transformation
P(S, X, T, r, b, v) = C(X, S, T, r -b, -b, v)
where C(*) is the value of the American call with risk-free rate r - b and drift -b. With the use of this transformation, it is not necessary to develop a separate formula for an American put option.
b=r options on non-dividend paying stock
b=r-q options on stock or index paying a dividend yield of q
b=0 options on futures
b=r-rf currency options (where rf is the rate in the second currency)
Inputs
S = Stock price.
K = Strike price of option.
T = Time to expiration in years.
r = Risk-free rate
c = Cost of Carry
V = Variance of the underlying asset price
cnd1(x) = Cumulative Normal Distribution
cbnd3(x) = Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution
nd(x) = Standard Normal Density Function
convertingToCCRate(r, cmp ) = Rate compounder
Numerical Greeks or Greeks by Finite Difference
Analytical Greeks are the standard approach to estimating Delta, Gamma etc... That is what we typically use when we can derive from closed form solutions. Normally, these are well-defined and available in text books. Previously, we relied on closed form solutions for the call or put formulae differentiated with respect to the Black Scholes parameters. When Greeks formulae are difficult to develop or tease out, we can alternatively employ numerical Greeks - sometimes referred to finite difference approximations. A key advantage of numerical Greeks relates to their estimation independent of deriving mathematical Greeks. This could be important when we examine American options where there may not technically exist an exact closed form solution that is straightforward to work with. (via VinegarHill FinanceLabs)
Things to know
Only works on the daily timeframe and for the current source price.
You can adjust the text size to fit the screen
DOW 30 - Market BreadthDOW 30 indicator is intended for short-term intraday analysis and should not be used solely alone. Best to use this indicator in a combination with technical and fundamental analysis.
This indicator is calculated from all stocks in the DJI as of 8/9/2022;
- Evaluating VWAP,
- 9 EMA,
- 20 EMA.
Vwap Calculations;
Stock above Vwap = 1 (Vwap Bull),
Stock below Vwap = 1 (Vwap Bear),
As there are 30 stocks in the DJI, there is a max value of 30 Vwap Bulls/ Vwap Bears.
Ema Calculation;
Stock above 9 EMA = 0.5 (EMA Bulls),
Stock below 9 EMA = 0.5 (EMA Bears),
Stock above 20 EMA = 0.5 (EMA Bulls),
Stock below 20 EMA = 0.5 (EMA Bears),
For the EMA Bulls to reach 30 all stocks must be trading above both the 9 EMA and 20 EMA to reach a Max Value of 30.
The reasoning for this calculation is to suggest the current strength and speed of the current turn in the market.
Horizontal Lines:
There are three horizontal lines, MAX, MIN & Neutral;
MAX & MIN
Resides at the 30 & 0 levels suggesting the market is currently at an extreme. Representing all stocks are moving in the same direction together.
When the MAX or MIN are represented in the VWAP Line this represents directional conviction in the underlining DJI.
Neutral
Neutral resides at the 15 level and represents that the market is either about to make a decision or is choppy.
EXAMPLE
Below are some examples of how the DOW 30 indicator is able to represent the current market conditions.
Understand Current Market Conditions, either being Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish.
See live Market Mechanics, and understand the current market direction on a short-term timeframe.
DOW 30 indicator is intended for short-term intraday analysis and should not be used solely alone. Best to use this indicator in a combination with technical and fundamental analysis.
If there are any additional requests to the indicator feel free to leave a comment or privet message.
Best of luck trading.
BTC Risk Metric - Estimates the risk of BTC price versus the USD
- To be used on the daily timeframe
- Works best on a BTC pair that has a lot of bars, e.g. The Bitcoin All Time History Index
- 0 is the lowest risk, 1 is the highest risk
- Historically, buying when the risk was low and selling when the risk was high would have yielded good ROI
- The risk bands are 0.1 in width and are highlighted on the plot
Typical Strategy:
- weighted DCA into the market when risk <0.5, do nothing between 0.5-0.6 and weighted DCA out of the market when risk >0.6
- x = buy amount per DCA interval
- y = 1/10th total BTC held by the user
- if 0 ≤ Risk < 0.1 then buy 5x
- if 0.1 ≤ Risk < 0.2 then buy 4x
- if 0.2 ≤ Risk < 0.3 then buy 3x
- if 0.3 ≤ Risk < 0.4 then buy 2x
- if 0.4 ≤ Risk < 0.5 then buy x
- if 0.5 ≤ Risk < 0.6 then do nothing
- if 0.6 ≤ Risk < 0.7 then sell y
- if 0.7 ≤ Risk < 0.8 then sell 2y
- if 0.8 ≤ Risk < 0.9 then sell 3y
- if 0.9 ≤ Risk ≤ 1.0 then sell 4y
Technical Ratings on Multi-frames / Assets█ OVERVIEW
This indicator is a modified version of TECHNICAL RATING v1.0 available in the public library to provide a quick overview of consolidated technical ratings performed on 12 assets in 3 timeframes.The purpose of the indicator is to provide a quick overview of the current status of the custom 12 (24) assets and to help focus on the appropriate asset.
█ MODIFICATIONS
- Markers, visualizations and alerts have been deleted
- Due to the limitation on maximum number of security (40), the results of 12 assets evaluated in 3 different time frames can be shown at the same time.
- An additional 12 assets can be configured in the settings so that you do not have to choose each ticker one by one to facilitate a quick change, but can switch between the 12 -12 assets with a single click on "Second sets?".
- The position, colors and parameters of the table can be widely customized in the settings.
- The 12 assets can be arranged in rows 3, 4, 6 and 12 with Table Rows options, which can also be used to create a simple mobile view.
- The default gradient color setting has been changed to red/yellow/green traffic lights
ORIGINAL DESCRIPTION ABOUT TECHNICAL RATING v1.0
█ OVERVIEW
This indicator calculates TradingView's well-known "Strong Buy", "Buy", "Neutral", "Sell" or "Strong Sell" states using the aggregate biases of 26 different technical indicators.
█ WARNING
This version is similar, but not identical, to our recently published "Technical Ratings" built-in, which reproduces our "Technicals" ratings displayed as a gauge in the right panel of charts, or in the "Rating" indicator available in the TradingView Screener. This is a fork and refactoring of the code base used in the "Technical Ratings" built-in. Its calculations will not always match those of the built-in, but it provides options not available in the built-in. Up to you to decide which one you prefer to use.
█ FEATURES
Differences with the built-in version
• The built-in version produces values matching the states displayed in the "Technicals" ratings gauge; this one does not always.
• A strategy version is also available as a built-in; this script is an indicator—not a strategy.
• This indicator will show a slightly different vertical scale, as it does not use a fixed scale like the built-in.
• This version allows control over repainting of the signal when you do not use a higher timeframe. Higher timeframe (HTF) information from this version does not repaint.
• You can adjust the weight of the Oscillators and MAs components of the rating here.
• You can configure markers on signal breaches of configurable levels, or on advances declines of the signal.
The indicator's settings allow you to:
• Choose the timeframe you want calculations to be made on.
• When not using a HTF, you can select a repainting or non-repainting signal.
• When using both MAs and Oscillators groups to calculate the rating, you can vary the weight of each group in the calculation. The default is 50/50.
Because the MAs group uses longer periods for some of its components, its value is not as jumpy as the Oscillators value.
Increasing the weight of the MAs group will thus have a calming effect on the signal.
• Alerts can be created on the indicator using the conditions configured to control the display of markers.
Display
The calculated rating is displayed as columns, but you can change the style in the inputs. The color of the signal can be one of three colors: bull, bear, or neutral. You can choose from a few presets, or check one and edit its color. The color is determined from the rating's value. Between 0.1 and -0.1 it is in the neutral color. Above/below 0.1/-0.1 it will appear in the bull/bear color. The intensity of the bull/bear color is determined by cumulative advances/declines in the rating. It is capped to 5, so there are five intensities for each of the bull/bear colors.
The "Strong Buy", "Buy", "Neutral", "Sell" or "Strong Sell" state of the last calculated value is displayed to the right of the last bar for each of the three groups: All, MAs and Oscillators. The first value always reflects your selection in the "Rating uses" field and is the one used to display the signal. A "Strong Buy" or "Strong Sell" state appears when the signal is above/below the 0.5/-0.5 level. A "Buy" or "Sell" state appears when the signal is above/below the 0.1/-0.1 level. The "Neutral" state appears when the signal is between 0.1 and -0.1 inclusively.
Five levels are always displayed: 0.5 and 0.1 in the bull color, zero in the neutral color, and -0.1 and - 0.5 in the bull color.
█ CALCULATIONS
The indicator calculates the aggregate value of two groups of indicators: moving averages and oscillators.
The "MAs" group is comprised of 15 different components:
• Six Simple Moving Averages of periods 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 and 200
• Six Exponential Moving Averages of the same periods
• A Hull Moving Average of period 9
• A Volume-weighed Moving Average of period 20
• Ichimoku
The "Oscillators" group includes 11 components:
• RSI
• Stochastic
• CCI
• ADX
• Awesome Oscillator
• Momentum
• MACD
• Stochastic RSI
• Wiliams %R
• Bull Bear Power
• Ultimate Oscillator
[GJ]IFRSITHE INVERSE FISHER TRANSFORM STOCH RSI
HOW IT WORKS
This indicator uses the inverse fisher transform on the stoch RSI for clear buying and selling signals. The stoch rsi is used to limit it in the range of 0 and 100. We subtract 50 from this to get it into the range of -50 to +50 and multiply by .1 to get it in the range of -5 to +5. We then use the 9 period weighted MA to remove some "random" trade signals before we finally use the inverse fisher transform to get the output between -1 and +1
HOW TO USE
Buy when the indicator crosses over –0.5 or crosses over +0.5 if it has not previously crossed over –0.5.
Sell when the indicator crosses under +0.5 or crosses under –0.5 if it has not previously crossed under +0.5.
We can see multiple examples of good buy and sell signals from this indicator on the attached chart for QCOM. Let me know if you have any suggestions or thoughts!
Technical Ratings█ OVERVIEW
This indicator calculates TradingView's well-known "Strong Buy", "Buy", "Neutral", "Sell" or "Strong Sell" states using the aggregate biases of 26 different technical indicators.
█ FEATURES
Differences with the built-in version
• You can adjust the weight of the Oscillators and MAs components of the rating here.
• The built-in version produces values matching the states displayed in the "Technicals" ratings gauge; this one does not always, where weighting is used.
• A strategy version is also available as a built-in; this script is an indicator—not a strategy.
• This indicator will show a slightly different vertical scale, as it does not use a fixed scale like the built-in.
• This version allows control over repainting of the signal when you do not use a higher timeframe. Higher timeframe (HTF) information from this version does not repaint.
• You can configure markers on signal breaches of configurable levels, or on advances declines of the signal.
The indicator's settings allow you to:
• Choose the timeframe you want calculations to be made on.
• When not using a HTF, you can select a repainting or non-repainting signal.
• When using both MAs and Oscillators groups to calculate the rating, you can vary the weight of each group in the calculation. The default is 50/50.
Because the MAs group uses longer periods for some of its components, its value is not as jumpy as the Oscillators value.
Increasing the weight of the MAs group will thus have a calming effect on the signal.
• Alerts can be created on the indicator using the conditions configured to control the display of markers.
Display
The calculated rating is displayed as columns, but you can change the style in the inputs. The color of the signal can be one of three colors: bull, bear, or neutral. You can choose from a few presets, or check one and edit its color. The color is determined from the rating's value. Between 0.1 and -0.1 it is in the neutral color. Above/below 0.1/-0.1 it will appear in the bull/bear color. The intensity of the bull/bear color is determined by cumulative advances/declines in the rating. It is capped to 5, so there are five intensities for each of the bull/bear colors.
The "Strong Buy", "Buy", "Neutral", "Sell" or "Strong Sell" state of the last calculated value is displayed to the right of the last bar for each of the three groups: All, MAs and Oscillators. The first value always reflects your selection in the "Rating uses" field and is the one used to display the signal. A "Strong Buy" or "Strong Sell" state appears when the signal is above/below the 0.5/-0.5 level. A "Buy" or "Sell" state appears when the signal is above/below the 0.1/-0.1 level. The "Neutral" state appears when the signal is between 0.1 and -0.1 inclusively.
Five levels are always displayed: 0.5 and 0.1 in the bull color, zero in the neutral color, and -0.1 and - 0.5 in the bull color.
The levels that can be used to determine the breaches displaying long/short markers will only be visible when their respective long/short markers are turned on in the "Direction" input. The levels appear as a bright dotted line in bull/bear colors. You can control both levels separately through the "Longs Level" and "Shorts Level" inputs.
If you specify a higher timeframe that is not greater than the chart's timeframe, an error message will appear and the indicator's background will turn red, as it doesn't make sense to use a lower timeframe than the chart's.
Markers
Markers are small triangles that appear at the bottom and top of the indicator's pane. The marker settings define the conditions that will trigger an alert when you configure an alert on the indicator. You can:
• Choose if you want long, short or both long and short markers.
• Determine the signal level and/or the number of cumulative advances/declines in the signal which must be reached for either a long or short marker to appear.
Reminder: the number of advances/declines is also what controls the brightness of the plotted signal.
• Decide if you want to restrict markers to ones that alternate between longs and shorts, if you are displaying both directions.
This helps to minimize the number of markers, e.g., only the first long marker will be displayed, and then no more long markers will appear until a short comes in, then a long, etc.
Alerts
When you create an alert from this indicator, that alert will trigger whenever your marker conditions are confirmed. Before creating your alert, configure the makers so they reflect the conditions you want your alert to trigger on.
The script uses the alert() function, which entails that you select the "Any alert() function call" condition from the "Create Alert" dialog box when creating alerts on the script. The alert messages can be configured in the inputs. You can safely disregard the warning popup that appears when you create alerts from this script. Alerts will not repaint. Markers will appear, and thus alerts will trigger, at the opening of the bar following the confirmation of the marker condition. Markers will never disappear from the bar once they appear.
Repainting
This indicator uses a two-pronged approach to control repainting. The repainting of the displayed signal is controlled through the "Repainting" field in the script's inputs. This only applies when you have "Same as chart" selected in the "Timeframe" field, as higher timeframe data never repaints. Regardless of that setting, markers and thus alerts never repaint.
When using the chart's timeframe, choosing a non-repainting signal makes the signal one bar late, so that it only displays a value once the bar it was calculated has elapsed. When using a higher timeframe, new values are only displayed once the higher timeframe completes.
Because the markers never repaint, their logic adapts to the repainting setting used for the signal. When the signal repaints, markers will only appear at the close of a realtime bar. When the signal does not repaint (or if you use a higher timeframe), alerts will appear at the beginning of the realtime bar, since they are calculated on values that already do not repaint.
█ CALCULATIONS
The indicator calculates the aggregate value of two groups of indicators: moving averages and oscillators.
The "MAs" group is comprised of 15 different components:
• Six Simple Moving Averages of periods 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 and 200
• Six Exponential Moving Averages of the same periods
• A Hull Moving Average of period 9
• A Volume-weighed Moving Average of period 20
• Ichimoku
The "Oscillators" group includes 11 components:
• RSI
• Stochastic
• CCI
• ADX
• Awesome Oscillator
• Momentum
• MACD
• Stochastic RSI
• Wiliams %R
• Bull Bear Power
• Ultimate Oscillator
The state of each group's components is evaluated to a +1/0/-1 value corresponding to its bull/neutral/bear bias. The resulting value for each of the two groups are then averaged to produce the overall value for the indicator, which oscillates between +1 and -1. The complete conditions used in the calculations are documented in the Help Center .
█ NOTES
Accuracy
When comparing values to the other versions of the Rating, make sure you are comparing similar timeframes, as the "Technicals" gauge in the chart's right pane, for example, uses a 1D timeframe by default.
For coders
We use a handy characteristic of array.avg() which, contrary to avg() , does not return na when one of the averaged values is na . It will average only the array elements which are not na . This is useful in the context where the functions used to calculate the bull/neutral/bear bias for each component used in the rating include special checks to return na whenever the dataset does not yet contain enough data to provide reliable values. This way, components gradually kick in the calculations as the script calculates on more and more historical data.
We also use the new `group` and `tooltip` parameters to input() , as well as dynamic color generation of different transparencies from the bull/bear/neutral colors selected by the user.
Our script was written using the PineCoders Coding Conventions for Pine .
The description was formatted using the techniques explained in the How We Write and Format Script Descriptions PineCoders publication.
Bits and pieces were lifted from the PineCoders' MTF Selection Framework .
Look first. Then leap.
Inverse Fisher Transform of SMI and sto. RSI, MTF confirmedThe system uses 1 hour and 15 min timeframe data. Signals coming from 15 min Inverse Fisher Transform of SMI and stochastic RSI are confirmed by 1 hour Inverse Fisher Transform SMI, according to the following rules:
long cond.: 15 min IFTSMI crosses ABOVE -0.5 or SRSI k-line crosses ABOVE 50 while 1-hour IFTSMI is already ABOVE -0.5
short cond.:15 min IFTSMI crosses BELOW 0.5 or SRSI k-line crosses BELOW 50 while 1-hour IFTSMI is already BELOW 0.5
SMI and Inverse Fisher Transform of SMI codes belong to @kivancozbilgic.
Tradingview - Screener RatingsEver wondered what is behind the the Tradingview Screener Signals:
www.tradingview.com
Strong buy is between 0.5 and 1
Buy is between 0 and 0.5
Sell is between 0 and -0.5
Strong Sell is between -0.5 and -1
Volatility Switch Indicator [LazyBear]The Volatility Switch (VOLSWITCH) indicator, by Ron McEwan, estimates current volatility in respect to historical data, thus indicating whether the market is trending or in mean reversion mode. Range is normalized to 0 - 1.
When Volatility Switch rises above the 0.5 level, volatility in the market is increasing, thus the price action can be expected to become choppier with abrupt moves. When the indicator falls below the 0.5 level from recent high readings, volatility decreases, which may be considered a sign of trend formation.
Trading strategy as suggested by Ron McEwan is:
- If VOLSWITCH is less than 0.5, volatility decreases, which may be considered a sign of trend formation
- If VOLSWITCH is greater than 0.5, market is in high volatility mode. Can be choppy. Use RSI to look for OB/OS levels.
I have implemented support for 2 lengths (14 and 21) Note that, Pine doesn't support loops. Once it is introduced, I will publish an updated version.
Building a strategy out of this is straightforward (refer to my strategy explanation above), I strongly encourage new Pinescript coders to try to a plotarrow() based overlay indicator to get more familiar with Pine.
More info:
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The Volatility (Regime) Switch Indicator : traders.com
Complete list of my indicators:
-------------------------------------
docs.google.com
POC Migration Velocity (POC-MV) [PhenLabs]📊POC Migration Velocity (POC-MV)
Version: PineScript™v6
📌Description
The POC Migration Velocity indicator revolutionizes market structure analysis by tracking the movement, speed, and acceleration of Point of Control (POC) levels in real-time. This tool combines sophisticated volume distribution estimation with velocity calculations to reveal hidden market dynamics that conventional indicators miss.
POC-MV provides traders with unprecedented insight into volume-based price movement patterns, enabling the early identification of continuation and exhaustion signals before they become apparent to the broader market. By measuring how quickly and consistently the POC migrates across price levels, traders gain early warning signals for significant market shifts and can position themselves advantageously.
The indicator employs advanced algorithms to estimate intra-bar volume distribution without requiring lower timeframe data, making it accessible across all chart timeframes while maintaining sophisticated analytical capabilities.
🚀Points of Innovation
Micro-POC calculation using advanced OHLC-based volume distribution estimation
Real-time velocity and acceleration tracking normalized by ATR for cross-market consistency
Persistence scoring system that quantifies directional consistency over multiple periods
Multi-signal detection combining continuation patterns, exhaustion signals, and gap alerts
Dynamic color-coded visualization system with intensity-based feedback
Comprehensive customization options for resolution, periods, and thresholds
🔧Core Components
POC Calculation Engine: Estimates volume distribution within each bar using configurable price bands and sophisticated weighting algorithms
Velocity Measurement System: Tracks the rate of POC movement over customizable lookback periods with ATR normalization
Acceleration Calculator: Measures the rate of change of velocity to identify momentum shifts in POC migration
Persistence Analyzer: Quantifies how consistently POC moves in the same direction using exponential weighting
Signal Detection Framework: Combines trend analysis, velocity thresholds, and persistence requirements for signal generation
Visual Rendering System: Provides dynamic color-coded lines and heat ribbons based on velocity and price-POC relationships
🔥Key Features
Real-time POC calculation with 10-100 configurable price bands for optimal precision
Velocity tracking with customizable lookback periods from 5 to 50 bars
Acceleration measurement for detecting momentum changes in POC movement
Persistence scoring to validate signal strength and filter false signals
Dynamic visual feedback with blue/orange color scheme indicating bullish/bearish conditions
Comprehensive alert system for continuation patterns, exhaustion signals, and POC gaps
Adjustable information table displaying real-time metrics and current signals
Heat ribbon visualization showing price-POC relationship intensity
Multiple threshold settings for customizing signal sensitivity
Export capability for use with separate panel indicators
🎨Visualization
POC Connecting Lines: Color-coded lines showing POC levels with intensity based on velocity magnitude
Heat Ribbon: Dynamic colored ribbon around price showing POC-price basis intensity
Signal Markers: Clear exhaustion top/bottom signals with labeled shapes
Information Table: Real-time display of POC value, velocity, acceleration, basis, persistence, and current signal status
Color Gradients: Blue gradients for bullish conditions, orange gradients for bearish conditions
📖Usage Guidelines
POC Calculation Settings
POC Resolution (Price Bands): Default 20, Range 10-100. Controls the number of price bands used to estimate volume distribution within each bar
Volume Weight Factor: Default 0.7, Range 0.1-1.0. Adjusts the influence of volume in POC calculation
POC Smoothing: Default 3, Range 1-10. EMA smoothing period applied to the calculated POC to reduce noise
Velocity Settings
Velocity Lookback Period: Default 14, Range 5-50. Number of bars used to calculate POC velocity
Acceleration Period: Default 7, Range 3-20. Period for calculating POC acceleration
Velocity Significance Threshold: Default 0.5, Range 0.1-2.0. Minimum normalized velocity for continuation signals
Persistence Settings
Persistence Lookback: Default 5, Range 3-20. Number of bars examined for persistence score calculation
Persistence Threshold: Default 0.7, Range 0.5-1.0. Minimum persistence score required for continuation signals
Visual Settings
Show POC Connecting Lines: Toggle display of colored lines connecting POC levels
Show Heat Ribbon: Toggle display of colored ribbon showing POC-price relationship
Ribbon Transparency: Default 70, Range 0-100. Controls transparency level of heat ribbon
Alert Settings
Enable Continuation Alerts: Toggle alerts for continuation pattern detection
Enable Exhaustion Alerts: Toggle alerts for exhaustion pattern detection
Enable POC Gap Alerts: Toggle alerts for significant POC gaps
Gap Threshold: Default 2.0 ATR, Range 0.5-5.0. Minimum gap size to trigger alerts
✅Best Use Cases
Identifying trend continuation opportunities when POC velocity aligns with price direction
Spotting potential reversal points through exhaustion pattern detection
Confirming breakout validity by monitoring POC gap behavior
Adding volume-based context to traditional technical analysis
Managing position sizing based on POC-price basis strength
⚠️Limitations
POC calculations are estimations based on OHLC data, not true tick-by-tick volume distribution
Effectiveness may vary in low-volume or highly volatile market conditions
Requires complementary analysis tools for complete trading decisions
Signal frequency may be lower in ranging markets compared to trending conditions
Performance optimization needed for very short timeframes below 1-minute
💡What Makes This Unique
Advanced Estimation Algorithm: Sophisticated method for calculating POC without requiring lower timeframe data
Velocity-Based Analysis: Focus on POC movement dynamics rather than static levels
Comprehensive Signal Framework: Integration of continuation, exhaustion, and gap detection in one indicator
Dynamic Visual Feedback: Intensity-based color coding that adapts to market conditions
Persistence Validation: Unique scoring system to filter signals based on directional consistency
🔬How It Works
Volume Distribution Estimation:
Divides each bar into configurable price bands for volume analysis
Applies sophisticated weighting based on OHLC relationships and proximity to close
Identifies the price level with maximum estimated volume as the POC
Velocity and Acceleration Calculation:
Measures POC rate of change over specified lookback periods
Normalizes values using ATR for consistent cross-market performance
Calculates acceleration as the rate of change of velocity
Signal Generation Process:
Combines trend direction analysis using EMA crossovers
Applies velocity and persistence thresholds to filter signals
Generates continuation, exhaustion, and gap alerts based on specific criteria
💡Note:
This indicator provides estimated POC calculations based on available OHLC data and should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods. The velocity-based approach offers unique insights into market structure dynamics but requires proper risk management and complementary analysis for optimal trading decisions.
Imbalance RSI Divergence Strategy# Imbalance RSI Divergence Strategy - User Guide
## What is This Strategy?
This strategy identifies **imbalance** zones in the market and combines them with **RSI divergence** to generate trading signals. It aims to capitalize on price gaps left by institutional investors and large volume movements.
### Main Settings
- **RSI Period (14)**: Period used for RSI calculation. Lower values = more sensitive, higher values = more stable signals.
- **ATR Period (10)**: Period for volatility measurement using Average True Range.
- **ATR Stop Loss Multiplier (2.0)**: How many ATR units to use for stop loss calculation.
- **Risk:Reward Ratio (4.0)**: Risk-reward ratio. 2.0 = 2 units of reward for 1 unit of risk.
- **Use RSI Divergence Filter (true)**: Enables/disables the RSI divergence filter.
### Imbalance Filters
- **Minimum Imbalance Size (ATR) (0.3)**: Minimum imbalance size in ATR units to filter out small imbalances.
- **Enable Lookback Limit (false)**: Activates historical lookback limitations.
- **Maximum Lookback Bars (300)**: Maximum number of bars to look back.
### Visual Settings
- **Show Imbalance Size**: Displays imbalance size in ATR units.
- **Show RSI Divergence Lines**: Shows/hides divergence lines.
- **Divergence Line Colors**: Colors for bullish/bearish divergence lines.
### Volatility-Based Adjustments
- **Low volatility markets**:
- Minimum Imbalance Size: 0.2-0.4 ATR
- ATR Stop Loss Multiplier: 1.5-2.0
- **High volatility markets**:
- Minimum Imbalance Size: 0.5-1.0 ATR
- ATR Stop Loss Multiplier: 2.5-3.5
### Risk Tolerance
- **Conservative approach**:
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 2.0-3.0
- RSI Divergence Filter: Enabled
- Minimum Imbalance Size: Higher (0.5+ ATR)
- **Aggressive approach**:
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 4.0-6.0
- Minimum Imbalance Size: Lower (0.2-0.3 ATR)
###Market Conditions
- **Trending markets**: Higher RSI Period (21-28)
- **Sideways markets**: Lower RSI Period (10-14)
- **Volatile markets**: Higher ATR Multiplier
## Recommended Testing Procedure
1. **Start with default settings** and backtest on 3-6 months of historical data
2. **Adjust RSI Period** to see which value produces better results
3. **Optimize ATR Multiplier** for stop loss levels
4. **Test different Risk:Reward ratios** comparatively
5. **Fine-tune Minimum Imbalance Size** to improve signal quality
## Important Considerations
- **False positive signals**: Imbalances may be less reliable during low volatility periods
- **Market openings**: First hours often produce more imbalances but can be riskier
- **News events**: Consider disabling strategy during major news releases
- **Backtesting**: Test across different market conditions (trending, sideways, volatile)
## Recommended Settings for Beginners
**Safe settings for new users:**
- RSI Period: 14
- ATR Period: 14
- ATR Stop Loss Multiplier: 2.5
- Risk:Reward Ratio: 3.0
- Minimum Imbalance Size: 0.5 ATR
- RSI Divergence Filter: Enabled
## Advanced Tips
### Signal Quality Improvement
- **Combine with market structure**: Look for imbalances near key support/resistance levels
- **Volume confirmation**: Higher volume during imbalance formation increases reliability
- **Multiple timeframe analysis**: Confirm signals on higher timeframes
### Risk Management
- **Position sizing**: Never risk more than 1-2% of account per trade
- **Maximum drawdown**: Set overall stop loss for the strategy
- **Market hours**: Consider avoiding low liquidity periods
### Performance Monitoring
- **Win rate**: Track percentage of profitable trades
- **Average R:R**: Monitor actual risk-reward achieved vs. target
- **Maximum consecutive losses**: Set alerts for strategy review
This strategy works best when combined with proper risk management and market analysis. Always backtest thoroughly before using real money and adjust parameters based on your specific market and trading style.
Machine Learning BBPct [BackQuant]Machine Learning BBPct
What this is (in one line)
A Bollinger Band %B oscillator enhanced with a simplified K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) pattern matcher. The model compares today’s context (volatility, momentum, volume, and position inside the bands) to similar situations in recent history and blends that historical consensus back into the raw %B to reduce noise and improve context awareness. It is informational and diagnostic—designed to describe market state, not to sell a trading system.
Background: %B in plain terms
Bollinger %B measures where price sits inside its dynamic envelope: 0 at the lower band, 1 at the upper band, ~ 0.5 near the basis (the moving average). Readings toward 1 indicate pressure near the envelope’s upper edge (often strength or stretch), while readings toward 0 indicate pressure near the lower edge (often weakness or stretch). Because bands adapt to volatility, %B is naturally comparable across regimes.
Why add (simplified) KNN?
Classic %B is reactive and can be whippy in fast regimes. The simplified KNN layer builds a “nearest-neighbor memory” of recent market states and asks: “When the market looked like this before, where did %B tend to be next bar?” It then blends that estimate with the current %B. Key ideas:
• Feature vector . Each bar is summarized by up to five normalized features:
– %B itself (normalized)
– Band width (volatility proxy)
– Price momentum (ROC)
– Volume momentum (ROC of volume)
– Price position within the bands
• Distance metric . Euclidean distance ranks the most similar recent bars.
• Prediction . Average the neighbors’ prior %B (lagged to avoid lookahead), inverse-weighted by distance.
• Blend . Linearly combine raw %B and KNN-predicted %B with a configurable weight; optional filtering then adapts to confidence.
This remains “simplified” KNN: no training/validation split, no KD-trees, no scaling beyond windowed min-max, and no probabilistic calibration.
How the script is organized (by input groups)
1) BBPct Settings
• Price Source – Which price to evaluate (%B is computed from this).
• Calculation Period – Lookback for SMA basis and standard deviation.
• Multiplier – Standard deviation width (e.g., 2.0).
• Apply Smoothing / Type / Length – Optional smoothing of the %B stream before ML (EMA, RMA, DEMA, TEMA, LINREG, HMA, etc.). Turning this off gives you the raw %B.
2) Thresholds
• Overbought/Oversold – Default 0.8 / 0.2 (inside ).
• Extreme OB/OS – Stricter zones (e.g., 0.95 / 0.05) to flag stretch conditions.
3) KNN Machine Learning
• Enable KNN – Switch between pure %B and hybrid.
• K (neighbors) – How many historical analogs to blend (default 8).
• Historical Period – Size of the search window for neighbors.
• ML Weight – Blend between raw %B and KNN estimate.
• Number of Features – Use 2–5 features; higher counts add context but raise the risk of overfitting in short windows.
4) Filtering
• Method – None, Adaptive, Kalman-style (first-order),
or Hull smoothing.
• Strength – How aggressively to smooth. “Adaptive” uses model confidence to modulate its alpha: higher confidence → stronger reliance on the ML estimate.
5) Performance Tracking
• Win-rate Period – Simple running score of past signal outcomes based on target/stop/time-out logic (informational, not a robust backtest).
• Early Entry Lookback – Horizon for forecasting a potential threshold cross.
• Profit Target / Stop Loss – Used only by the internal win-rate heuristic.
6) Self-Optimization
• Enable Self-Optimization – Lightweight, rolling comparison of a few canned settings (K = 8/14/21 via simple rules on %B extremes).
• Optimization Window & Stability Threshold – Governs how quickly preferred K changes and how sensitive the overfitting alarm is.
• Adaptive Thresholds – Adjust the OB/OS lines with volatility regime (ATR ratio), widening in calm markets and tightening in turbulent ones (bounded 0.7–0.9 and 0.1–0.3).
7) UI Settings
• Show Table / Zones / ML Prediction / Early Signals – Toggle informational overlays.
• Signal Line Width, Candle Painting, Colors – Visual preferences.
Step-by-step logic
A) Compute %B
Basis = SMA(source, len); dev = stdev(source, len) × multiplier; Upper/Lower = Basis ± dev.
%B = (price − Lower) / (Upper − Lower). Optional smoothing yields standardBB .
B) Build the feature vector
All features are min-max normalized over the KNN window so distances are in comparable units. Features include normalized %B, normalized band width, normalized price ROC, normalized volume ROC, and normalized position within bands. You can limit to the first N features (2–5).
C) Find nearest neighbors
For each bar inside the lookback window, compute the Euclidean distance between current features and that bar’s features. Sort by distance, keep the top K .
D) Predict and blend
Use inverse-distance weights (with a strong cap for near-zero distances) to average neighbors’ prior %B (lagged by one bar). This becomes the KNN estimate. Blend it with raw %B via the ML weight. A variance of neighbor %B around the prediction becomes an uncertainty proxy ; combined with a stability score (how long parameters remain unchanged), it forms mlConfidence ∈ . The Adaptive filter optionally transforms that confidence into a smoothing coefficient.
E) Adaptive thresholds
Volatility regime (ATR(14) divided by its 50-bar SMA) nudges OB/OS thresholds wider or narrower within fixed bounds. The aim: comparable extremeness across regimes.
F) Early entry heuristic
A tiny two-step slope/acceleration probe extrapolates finalBB forward a few bars. If it is on track to cross OB/OS soon (and slope/acceleration agree), it flags an EARLY_BUY/SELL candidate with an internal confidence score. This is explicitly a heuristic—use as an attention cue, not a signal by itself.
G) Informational win-rate
The script keeps a rolling array of trade outcomes derived from signal transitions + rudimentary exits (target/stop/time). The percentage shown is a rough diagnostic , not a validated backtest.
Outputs and visual language
• ML Bollinger %B (finalBB) – The main line after KNN blending and optional filtering.
• Gradient fill – Greenish tones above 0.5, reddish below, with intensity following distance from the midline.
• Adaptive zones – Overbought/oversold and extreme bands; shaded backgrounds appear at extremes.
• ML Prediction (dots) – The KNN estimate plotted as faint circles; becomes bright white when confidence > 0.7.
• Early arrows – Optional small triangles for approaching OB/OS.
• Candle painting – Light green above the midline, light red below (optional).
• Info panel – Current value, signal classification, ML confidence, optimized K, stability, volatility regime, adaptive thresholds, overfitting flag, early-entry status, and total signals processed.
Signal classification (informational)
The indicator does not fire trade commands; it labels state:
• STRONG_BUY / STRONG_SELL – finalBB beyond extreme OS/OB thresholds.
• BUY / SELL – finalBB beyond adaptive OS/OB.
• EARLY_BUY / EARLY_SELL – forecast suggests a near-term cross with decent internal confidence.
• NEUTRAL – between adaptive bands.
Alerts (what you can automate)
• Entering adaptive OB/OS and extreme OB/OS.
• Midline cross (0.5).
• Overfitting detected (frequent parameter flipping).
• Early signals when early confidence > 0.7.
These are purely descriptive triggers around the indicator’s state.
Practical interpretation
• Mean-reversion context – In range markets, adaptive OS/OB with ML smoothing can reduce whipsaws relative to raw %B.
• Trend context – In persistent trends, the KNN blend can keep finalBB nearer the mid/upper region during healthy pullbacks if history supports similar contexts.
• Regime awareness – Watch the volatility regime and adaptive thresholds. If thresholds compress (high vol), “OB/OS” comes sooner; if thresholds widen (calm), it takes more stretch to flag.
• Confidence as a weight – High mlConfidence implies neighbors agree; you may rely more on the ML curve. Low confidence argues for de-emphasizing ML and leaning on raw %B or other tools.
• Stability score – Rising stability indicates consistent parameter selection and fewer flips; dropping stability hints at a shifting backdrop.
Methodological notes
• Normalization uses rolling min-max over the KNN window. This is simple and scale-agnostic but sensitive to outliers; the distance metric will reflect that.
• Distance is unweighted Euclidean. If you raise featureCount, you increase dimensionality; consider keeping K larger and lookback ample to avoid sparse-neighbor artifacts.
• Lag handling intentionally uses neighbors’ previous %B for prediction to avoid lookahead bias.
• Self-optimization is deliberately modest: it only compares a few canned K/threshold choices using simple “did an extreme anticipate movement?” scoring, then enforces a stability regime and an overfitting guard. It is not a grid search or GA.
• Kalman option is a first-order recursive filter (fixed gain), not a full state-space estimator.
• Hull option derives a dynamic length from 1/strength; it is a convenience smoothing alternative.
Limitations and cautions
• Non-stationarity – Nearest neighbors from the recent window may not represent the future under structural breaks (policy shifts, liquidity shocks).
• Curse of dimensionality – Adding features without sufficient lookback can make genuine neighbors rare.
• Overfitting risk – The script includes a crude overfitting detector (frequent parameter flips) and will fall back to defaults when triggered, but this is only a guardrail.
• Win-rate display – The internal score is illustrative; it does not constitute a tradable backtest.
• Latency vs. smoothness – Smoothing and ML blending reduce noise but add lag; tune to your timeframe and objectives.
Tuning guide
• Short-term scalping – Lower len (10–14), slightly lower multiplier (1.8–2.0), small K (5–8), featureCount 3–4, Adaptive filter ON, moderate strength.
• Swing trading – len (20–30), multiplier ~2.0, K (8–14), featureCount 4–5, Adaptive thresholds ON, filter modest.
• Strong trends – Consider higher adaptive_upper/lower bounds (or let volatility regime do it), keep ML weight moderate so raw %B still reflects surges.
• Chop – Higher ML weight and stronger Adaptive filtering; accept lag in exchange for fewer false extremes.
How to use it responsibly
Treat this as a state descriptor and context filter. Pair it with your execution signals (structure breaks, volume footprints, higher-timeframe bias) and risk management. If mlConfidence is low or stability is falling, lean less on the ML line and more on raw %B or external confirmation.
Summary
Machine Learning BBPct augments a familiar oscillator with a transparent, simplified KNN memory of recent conditions. By blending neighbors’ behavior into %B and adapting thresholds to volatility regime—while exposing confidence, stability, and a plain early-entry heuristic—it provides an informational, probability-minded view of stretch and reversion that you can interpret alongside your own process.
Information-Geometric Market DynamicsInformation-Geometric Market Dynamics
The Information Field: A Geometric Approach to Market Dynamics
By: DskyzInvestments
Foreword: Beyond the Shadows on the Wall
If you have traded for any length of time, you know " the feeling ." It is the frustration of a perfect setup that fails, the whipsaw that stops you out just before the real move, the nagging sense that the chart is telling you only half the story. For decades, technical analysis has relied on interpreting the shadows—the patterns left behind by price. We draw lines on these shadows, apply indicators to them, and hope they reveal the future.
But what if we could stop looking at the shadows and, instead, analyze the object casting them?
This script introduces a new paradigm for market analysis: Information-Geometric Market Dynamics (IGMD) . The core premise of IGMD is that the price chart is merely a one-dimensional projection of a much richer, higher-dimensional reality—an " information field " generated by the collective actions and beliefs of all market participants.
This is not just another collection of indicators. It is a unified framework for measuring the geometry of the market's information field—its memory, its complexity, its uncertainty, its causal flows—and making high-probability decisions based on that deeper reality. By fusing advanced mathematical and informational concepts, IGMD provides a multi-faceted lens through which to view market behavior, moving beyond simple price action into the very structure of market information itself.
Prepare to move beyond the flatland of the price chart. Welcome to the information field.
The IGMD Framework: A Multi-Kernel Approach
What is a Kernel? The Heart of Transformation
In mathematics and data science, a kernel is a powerful and elegant concept. At its core, a kernel is a function that takes complex, often inscrutable data and transforms it into a more useful format. Think of it as a specialized lens or a mathematical "probe." You cannot directly measure abstract concepts like "market memory" or "trend quality" by looking at a price number. First, you must process the raw price data through a specific mathematical machine—a kernel—that is designed to output a measurement of that specific property. Kernels operate by performing a sort of "similarity test," projecting data into a higher-dimensional space where hidden patterns and relationships become visible and measurable.
Why do creators use them? We use kernels to extract features —meaningful pieces of information—that are not explicitly present in the raw data. They are the essential tools for moving beyond surface-level analysis into the very DNA of market behavior. A simple moving average can tell you the average price; a suite of well-chosen kernels can tell you about the character of the price action itself.
The Alchemist's Challenge: The Art of Fusion
Using a single kernel is a challenge. Using five distinct, computationally demanding mathematical engines in unison is an immense undertaking. The true difficulty—and artistry—lies not just in using one kernel, but in fusing the outputs of many . Each kernel provides a different perspective, and they can often give conflicting signals. One kernel might detect a strong trend, while another signals rising chaos and uncertainty. The IGMD script's greatest strength is its ability to act as this alchemist, synthesizing these disparate viewpoints through a weighted fusion process to produce a single, coherent picture of the market's state. It required countless hours of testing and calibration to balance the influence of these five distinct analytical engines so they work in harmony rather than cacophony.
The Five Kernels of Market Dynamics
The IGMD script is built upon a foundation of five distinct kernels, each chosen to probe a unique and critical dimension of the market's information field.
1. The Wavelet Kernel (The "Microscope")
What it is: The Wavelet Kernel is a signal processing function designed to decompose a signal into different frequency scales. Unlike a Fourier Transform that analyzes the entire signal at once, the wavelet slides across the data, providing information about both what frequencies are present and when they occurred.
The Kernels I Use:
Haar Kernel: The simplest wavelet, a square-wave shape defined by the coefficients . It excels at detecting sharp, sudden changes.
Daubechies 2 (db2) Kernel: A more complex and smoother wavelet shape that provides a better balance for analyzing the nuanced ebb and flow of typical market trends.
How it Works in the Script: This kernel is applied iteratively. It first separates the finest "noise" (detail d1) from the first level of trend (approximation a1). It then takes the trend a1 and repeats the process, extracting the next level of cycle (d2) and trend (a2), and so on. This hierarchical decomposition allows us to separate short-term noise from the long-term market "thesis."
2. The Hurst Exponent Kernel (The "Memory Gauge")
What it is: The Hurst Exponent is derived from a statistical analysis kernel that measures the "long-term memory" or persistence of a time series. It is the definitive measure of whether a series is trending (H > 0.5), mean-reverting (H < 0.5), or random (H = 0.5).
How it Works in the Script: The script employs a method based on Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis. It calculates the average range of price movements over increasingly larger time lags (m1, m2, m4, m8...). The slope of the line plotting log(range) vs. log(lag) is the Hurst Exponent. Applying this complex statistical analysis not to the raw price, but to the clean, wavelet-decomposed trend lines, is a key innovation of IGMD.
3. The Fractal Dimension Kernel (The "Complexity Compass")
What it is: This kernel measures the geometric complexity or "jaggedness" of a price path, based on the principles of fractal geometry. A straight line has a dimension of 1; a chaotic, space-filling line approaches a dimension of 2.
How it Works in the Script: We use a version based on Ehlers' Fractal Dimension Index (FDI). It calculates the rate of price change over a full lookback period (N3) and compares it to the sum of the rates of change over the two halves of that period (N1 + N2). The formula d = (log(N1 + N2) - log(N3)) / log(2) quantifies how much "longer" and more convoluted the price path was than a simple straight line. This kernel is our primary filter for tradeable (low complexity) vs. untradeable (high complexity) conditions.
4. The Shannon Entropy Kernel (The "Uncertainty Meter")
What it is: This kernel comes from Information Theory and provides the purest mathematical measure of information, surprise, or uncertainty within a system. It is not a measure of volatility; a market moving predictably up by 10 points every bar has high volatility but zero entropy .
How it Works in the Script: The script normalizes price returns by the ATR, categorizes them into a discrete number of "bins" over a lookback window, and forms a probability distribution. The Shannon Entropy H = -Σ(p_i * log(p_i)) is calculated from this distribution. A low H means returns are predictable. A high H means returns are chaotic. This kernel is our ultimate gauge of market conviction.
5. The Transfer Entropy Kernel (The "Causality Probe")
What it is: This is by far the most advanced and computationally intensive kernel in the script. Transfer Entropy is a non-parametric measure of directed information flow between two time series. It moves beyond correlation to ask: "Does knowing the past of Volume genuinely reduce our uncertainty about the future of Price?"
How it Works in the Script: To make this work, the script discretizes both price returns and the chosen "driver" (e.g., OBV) into three states: "up," "down," or "neutral." It then builds complex conditional probability tables to measure the flow of information in both directions. The Net Transfer Entropy (TE Driver→Price minus TE Price→Driver) gives us a direct measure of causality . A positive score means the driver is leading price, confirming the validity of the move. This is a profound leap beyond traditional indicator analysis.
Chapter 3: Fusion & Interpretation - The Field Score & Dashboard
Each kernel is a specialist providing a piece of the puzzle. The Field Score is where they are fused into a single, comprehensive reading. It's a weighted sum of the normalized scores from all five kernels, producing a single number from -1 (maximum bearish information field) to +1 (maximum bullish information field). This is the ultimate "at-a-glance" metric for the market's net state, and it is interpreted through the dashboard.
The Dashboard: Your Mission Control
Field Score & Regime: The master metric and its plain-English interpretation ("Uptrend Field", "Downtrend Field", "Transitional").
Kernel Readouts (Wave Align, H(w), FDI, etc.): The live scores of each individual kernel. This allows you to see why the Field Score is what it is. A high Field Score with all components in agreement (all green or red) is a state of High Coherence and represents a high-quality setup.
Market Context: Standard metrics like RSI and Volume for additional confluence.
Signals: The raw and adjusted confluence counts and the final, calculated probability scores for potential long and short entries.
Pattern: Shows the dominant candlestick pattern detected within the currently forming APEX range box and its calculated confidence percentage.
Chapter 4: Mastering the Controls - The Inputs Menu
Every parameter is a lever to fine-tune the IGMD engine.
📊 Wavelet Transform: Kernel ( Haar for sharp moves, db2 for smooth trends) and Scales (depth of analysis) let you tune the script's core microscope to your asset's personality.
📈 Hurst Exponent: The Window determines if you're assessing short-term or long-term market memory.
🔍 Fractal Dimension & ⚡ Entropy Volatility: Adjust the lookback windows to make these kernels more or less sensitive to recent price action. Always keep "Normalize by ATR" enabled for Entropy for consistent results.
🔄 Transfer Entropy: Driver lets you choose what causal force to measure (e.g., OBV, Volume, or even an external symbol like VIX). The throttle setting is a crucial performance tool, allowing you to balance precision with script speed.
⚡ Field Fusion • Weights: This is where you can customize the model's "brain." Increase the weights for the kernels that best align with your trading philosophy (e.g., w_hurst for trend followers, w_fdi for chop avoiders).
📊 Signal Engine: Mode offers presets from Conservative to Aggressive . Min Confluence sets your evidence threshold. Dynamic Confluence is a powerful feature that automatically adapts this threshold to the market regime.
🎨 Visuals & 📏 Support/Resistance: These inputs give you full control over the chart's appearance, allowing you to toggle every visual element for a setup that is as clean or as data-rich as you desire.
Chapter 5: Reading the Battlefield - On-Chart Visuals
Pattern Boxes (The Large Rectangles): These are not simple range boxes. They appear when the Field Score crosses a significance threshold, signaling a potential ignition point.
Color: The color reflects the dominant candlestick pattern that has occurred within that box's duration (e.g., green for Bull Engulf).
Label: Displays the dominant pattern, its duration in bars, and a calculated Confidence % based on field strength and pattern clarity.
Bar Pattern Boxes (The Small Boxes): If enabled, these highlight individual, significant candlestick patterns ( BE for Bull Engulf, H for Hammer) on a bar-by-bar basis.
Signal Markers (▲ and ▼): These appear only when the Signal Engine's criteria are all met. The number is the calculated Probability Score .
RR Rails (Dashed Lines): When a signal appears, these lines automatically plot the Entry, Stop Loss (based on ATR), and two Take Profit targets (based on Risk/Reward ratios). They dynamically break and disappear as price touches each level.
Support & Resistance Lines: Plots of the highest high ( Resistance ) and lowest low ( Support ) over a lookback, providing key structural levels.
Chapter 6: Development Philosophy & A Final Word
One single question: " What is the market really doing? " It represents a triumph of complexity, blending concepts from signal processing, chaos theory, and information theory into a cohesive framework. It is offered for educational and analytical purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Its goal is to elevate your analysis from interpreting flat shadows to measuring the rich, geometric reality of the market's information field.
As the great mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot , father of fractal geometry, noted:
"Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line."
Neither does the market. IGMD is a tool designed to navigate that beautiful, complex, and fractal reality.
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Linh's Anomaly Radar v2What this script does
It’s an event detector for price/volume anomalies that often precede or confirm moves.
It watches a bunch of patterns (Wyckoff tests, squeezes, failed breakouts, turnover bursts, etc.), applies robust z-scores, optional trend filters, cooldowns (to avoid spam), and then fires:
A shape/label on the bar,
A row in the mini panel (top-right),
A ready-made alertcondition you can hook into.
How to add & set up (TradingView)
Paste the script → Save → Add to chart on Daily first (works on any TF).
Open Settings → Inputs:
General
• Use Robust Z (MAD): more outlier-resistant; keep on.
• Z Lookback: 60 bars is ~3 months; bump to 120 for slower regimes.
• Cooldown: min bars to wait before the same signal can fire again (default 5).
• Use trend filter: if on, “bullish” signals only fire above SMA(tfLen), “bearish” below.
Thresholds: fine-tune sensitivity (defaults are sane).
To create alerts: Right-click chart → Add alert
Condition: Linh’s Anomaly Radar v2 → choose a specific signal or Composite (Σ).
Options: “Once per bar close” (recommended).
Customize message if you want ticker/timeframe in your phone push.
The mini panel (top-right)
Signal column: short code (see cheat sheet below).
Fired column: a dot “•” means that on the latest bar this signal fired.
Score (right column): total count of signals that fired this bar.
Σ≥N shows your composite threshold (how many must fire to trigger the “Composite” alert).
Shapes & codes (what’s what)
Code Name (category) What it’s looking for Why it matters
STL Stealth Volume z(volume)>5 & ** z(return)
EVR Effort vs Result squeeze z(vol)>3 & z(TR)<−0.5 Heavy effort, tiny spread → absorption
TGV Tight+Heavy (HL/ATR)<0.6 & z(vol)>3 Tight bar + heavy tape → pro activity
CLS Accumulation cluster ≥3 of last 5 bars: up, vol↑, close near high Classic accumulation footprint
GAP Open drive failure Big gap not filled (≥80%) & vol↑ One-sided open stalls → fade risk
BB↑ BB squeeze breakout Squeeze (z(BBWidth)<−1.3) → close > upperBB & vol↑ Regime shift with confirmation
ER↑ Effort→Result inversion Down day on vol then next bar > prior high Demand overwhelms supply
OBV OBV divergence OBV slope up & ** z(ret20)
WER Wide Effort, Opposite Result z(vol)>3, close+1 Selling into strength / distribution
NS No-Supply (Wyckoff) Down bar, HL<0.6·ATR, vol << avg Sellers absent into weakness
ND No-Demand (Wyckoff) Up bar, HL<0.6·ATR, vol << avg Buyers absent into strength
VAC Liquidity Vacuum z(vol)<−1.5 & ** z(ret)
UTD UTAD (failed breakout) Breaks swing-high, closes back below, vol↑ Stop-run, reversal risk
SPR Spring (failed breakdown) Breaks swing-low, closes back above, vol↑ Bear trap, reversal risk
PIV Pocket Pivot Up bar; vol > max down-vol in lookback Quiet base → sudden demand
NR7 Narrow Range 7 + Vol HL is 7-bar low & z(vol)>2 Coiled spring with participation
52W 52-wk breakout quality New 52-wk close high + squeeze + vol↑ High-quality breakouts
VvK Vol-of-Vol kink z(ATR20,200)>0.5 & z(ATR5,60)<0 Long-vol wakes up, short-vol compresses
TAC Turnover acceleration SMA3 vol / SMA20 vol > 1.8 & muted return Participation surging before move
RBd RSI Bullish div Price LL, RSI HL, vol z>1 Exhaustion of sellers
RS↑ RSI Bearish div Price HH, RSI LH, vol z>1 Exhaustion of buyers
Σ Composite Count of all fired signals ≥ threshold High-conviction bar
Placement:
Triangles up (below bar) → bullish-leaning events.
Triangles down (above bar) → bearish-leaning events.
Circles → neutral context (VAC, VvK, Composite).
Key inputs (quick reference)
General
Use Robust Z (MAD): keep on for noisy tickers.
Z Lookback (lenZ): 60 default; 120 if you want fewer alerts.
Trend filter: when on, bullish signals require close > SMA(tfLen), bearish require <.
Cooldown: prevents repeated firing of the same signal within N bars.
Phase-1 thresholds (core)
Stealth: vol z > 5, |ret z| < 1.
EVR: vol z > 3, TR z < −0.5.
Tight+Heavy: (HL/ATR) < 0.6, vol z > 3.
Cluster: window=5, min=3 strong bars.
GapFail: gap/ATR ≥1.5, fill <80%, vol z > 2.
BB Squeeze: z(BBWidth)<−1.3 then breakout with vol z > 2.
Eff→Res Up: prev bar heavy down → current bar > prior high.
OBV Div: OBV uptrend + |z(ret20)|<0.3.
Phase-2 thresholds (extras)
WER: vol z > 3, close1.
No-Supply/No-Demand: tight bar & very light volume vs SMA20.
Vacuum: vol z < −1.5, |ret z|>1.5.
UTAD/Spring: swing lookback N (default 20), vol z > 2.
Pocket Pivot: lookback for prior down-vol max (default 10).
NR7: 7-bar narrowest range + vol z > 2.
52W Quality: new 52-wk high + squeeze + vol z > 2.
VoV Kink: z(ATR20,200)>0.5 AND z(ATR5,60)<0.
Turnover Accel: SMA3/SMA20 > 1.8 and |ret z|<1.
RSI Divergences: compare to n bars back (default 14).
How to use it (playbooks)
A) Daily scan workflow
Run on Daily for your VN watchlist.
Turn Composite (Σ) alert on with Σ≥2 or ≥3 to reduce noise.
When a bar fires Σ (or a fav combo like STL + BB↑), drop to 60-min to time entries.
B) Breakout quality check
Look for 52W together with BB↑, TAC, and OBV.
If WER/ND appear near highs → downgrade the breakout.
C) Spring/UTAD reversals
If SPR fires near major support and RBd confirms → long bias with stop below spring low.
If UTD + WER/RS↑ near resistance → short/fade with stop above UTAD high.
D) Accumulation basing
During bases, you want CLS, OBV, TGV, STL, NR7.
A pocket pivot (PIV) can be your early add; manage risk below base lows.
Tuning tips
Too many signals? Raise stealthVolZ to 5.5–6, evrVolZ to 3.5, use Σ≥3.
Fast movers? Lower bbwZthr to −1.0 (less strict squeeze), keep trend filter on.
Illiquid tickers? Keep MAD z-scores on, increase lookbacks (e.g., lenZ=120).
Limitations & good habits
First lenZ bars on a new symbol are less reliable (incomplete z-window).
Some ideas (VWAP magnet, close auction spikes, ETF/foreign flows, options skew) need intraday/external feeds — not included here.
Pine can’t “screen” across the whole market; set alerts or cycle your watchlist.
Quick troubleshooting
Compilation errors: make sure you’re on Pine v6; don’t nest functions in if blocks; each var int must be declared on its own line.
No shapes firing: check trend filter (maybe price is below SMA and you’re waiting for bullish signals), and verify thresholds aren’t too strict.
MERV: Market Entropy & Rhythm Visualizer [BullByte]The MERV (Market Entropy & Rhythm Visualizer) indicator analyzes market conditions by measuring entropy (randomness vs. trend), tradeability (volatility/momentum), and cyclical rhythm. It provides traders with an easy-to-read dashboard and oscillator to understand when markets are structured or choppy, and when trading conditions are optimal.
Purpose of the Indicator
MERV’s goal is to help traders identify different market regimes. It quantifies how structured or random recent price action is (entropy), how strong and volatile the movement is (tradeability), and whether a repeating cycle exists. By visualizing these together, MERV highlights trending vs. choppy environments and flags when conditions are favorable for entering trades. For example, a low entropy value means prices are following a clear trend line, whereas high entropy indicates a lot of noise or sideways action. The indicator’s combination of measures is original: it fuses statistical trend-fit (entropy), volatility trends (ATR and slope), and cycle analysis to give a comprehensive view of market behavior.
Why a Trader Should Use It
Traders often need to know when a market trend is reliable vs. when it is just noise. MERV helps in several ways: it shows when the market has a strong direction (low entropy, high tradeability) and when it’s ranging (high entropy). This can prevent entering trend-following strategies during choppy periods, or help catch breakouts early. The “Optimal Regime” marker (a star) highlights moments when entropy is very low and tradeability is very high, typically the best conditions for trend trades. By using MERV, a trader gains an empirical “go/no-go” signal based on price history, rather than guessing from price alone. It’s also adaptable: you can apply it to stocks, forex, crypto, etc., on any timeframe. For example, during a bullish phase of a stock, MERV will turn green (Trending Mode) and often show a star, signaling good follow-through. If the market later grinds sideways, MERV will shift to magenta (Choppy Mode), warning you that trend-following is now risky.
Why These Components Were Chosen
Market Entropy (via R²) : This measures how well recent prices fit a straight line. We compute a linear regression on the last len_entropy bars and calculate R². Entropy = 1 - R², so entropy is low when prices follow a trend (R² near 1) and high when price action is erratic (R² near 0). This single number captures trend strength vs noise.
Tradeability (ATR + Slope) : We combine two familiar measures: the Average True Range (ATR) (normalized by price) and the absolute slope of the regression line (scaled by ATR). Together they reflect how active and directional the market is. A high ATR or strong slope means big moves, making a trend more “tradeable.” We take a simple average of the normalized ATR and slope to get tradeability_raw. Then we convert it to a percentile rank over the lookback window so it’s stable between 0 and 1.
Percentile Ranks : To make entropy and tradeability values easy to interpret, we convert each to a 0–100 rank based on the past len_entropy periods. This turns raw metrics into a consistent scale. (For example, an entropy rank of 90 means current entropy is higher than 90% of recent values.) We then divide by 100 to plot them on a 0–1 scale.
Market Mode (Regime) : Based on those ranks, MERV classifies the market:
Trending (Green) : Low entropy rank (<40%) and high tradeability rank (>60%). This means the market is structurally trending with high activity.
Choppy (Magenta) : High entropy rank (>60%) and low tradeability rank (<40%). This is a mostly random, low-momentum market.
Neutral (Cyan) : All other cases. This covers mixed regimes not strongly trending or choppy.
The mode is shown as a colored bar at the bottom: green for trending, magenta for choppy, cyan for neutral.
Optimal Regime Signal : Separately, we mark an “optimal” condition when entropy_norm < 0.3 and tradeability > 0.7 (both normalized 0–1). When this is true, a ★ star appears on the bottom line. This star is colored white when truly optimal, gold when only tradeability is high (but entropy not quite low enough), and black when neither condition holds. This gives a quick visual cue for very favorable conditions.
What Makes MERV Stand Out
Holistic View : Unlike a single-oscillator, MERV combines trend, volatility, and cycle analysis in one tool. This multi-faceted approach is unique.
Visual Dashboard : The fixed on-chart dashboard (shown at your chosen corner) summarizes all metrics in bar/gauge form. Even a non-technical user can glance at it: more “█” blocks = a higher value, colors match the plots. This is more intuitive than raw numbers.
Adaptive Thresholds : Using percentile ranks means MERV auto-adjusts to each market’s character, rather than requiring fixed thresholds.
Cycle Insight : The rhythm plot adds information rarely found in indicators – it shows if there’s a repeating cycle (and its period in bars) and how strong it is. This can hint at natural bounce or reversal intervals.
Modern Look : The neon color scheme and glow effects make the lines easy to distinguish (blue/pink for entropy, green/orange for tradeability, etc.) and the filled area between them highlights when one dominates the other.
Recommended Timeframes
MERV can be applied to any timeframe, but it will be more reliable on higher timeframes. The default len_entropy = 50 and len_rhythm = 30 mean we use 30–50 bars of history, so on a daily chart that’s ~2–3 months of data; on a 1-hour chart it’s about 2–3 days. In practice:
Swing/Position traders might prefer Daily or 4H charts, where the calculations smooth out small noise. Entropy and cycles are more meaningful on longer trends.
Day trader s could use 15m or 1H charts if they adjust the inputs (e.g. shorter windows). This provides more sensitivity to intraday cycles.
Scalpers might find MERV too “slow” unless input lengths are set very low.
In summary, the indicator works anywhere, but the defaults are tuned for capturing medium-term trends. Users can adjust len_entropy and len_rhythm to match their chart’s volatility. The dashboard position can also be moved (top-left, bottom-right, etc.) so it doesn’t cover important chart areas.
How the Scoring/Logic Works (Step-by-Step)
Compute Entropy : A linear regression line is fit to the last len_entropy closes. We compute R² (goodness of fit). Entropy = 1 – R². So a strong straight-line trend gives low entropy; a flat/noisy set of points gives high entropy.
Compute Tradeability : We get ATR over len_entropy bars, normalize it by price (so it’s a fraction of price). We also calculate the regression slope (difference between the predicted close and last close). We scale |slope| by ATR to get a dimensionless measure. We average these (ATR% and slope%) to get tradeability_raw. This represents how big and directional price moves are.
Convert to Percentiles : Each new entropy and tradeability value is inserted into a rolling array of the last 50 values. We then compute the percentile rank of the current value in that array (0–100%) using a simple loop. This tells us where the current bar stands relative to history. We then divide by 100 to plot on .
Determine Modes and Signal : Based on these normalized metrics: if entropy < 0.4 and tradeability > 0.6 (40% and 60% thresholds), we set mode = Trending (1). If entropy > 0.6 and tradeability < 0.4, mode = Choppy (-1). Otherwise mode = Neutral (0). Separately, if entropy_norm < 0.3 and tradeability > 0.7, we set an optimal flag. These conditions trigger the colored mode bars and the star line.
Rhythm Detection : Every bar, if we have enough data, we take the last len_rhythm closes and compute the mean and standard deviation. Then for lags from 5 up to len_rhythm, we calculate a normalized autocorrelation coefficient. We track the lag that gives the maximum correlation (best match). This “best lag” divided by len_rhythm is plotted (a value between 0 and 1). Its color changes with the correlation strength. We also smooth the best correlation value over 5 bars to plot as “Cycle Strength” (also 0 to 1). This shows if there is a consistent cycle length in recent price action.
Heatmap (Optional) : The background color behind the oscillator panel can change with entropy. If “Neon Rainbow” style is on, low entropy is blue and high entropy is pink (via a custom color function), otherwise a classic green-to-red gradient can be used. This visually reinforces the entropy value.
Volume Regime (Dashboard Only) : We compute vol_norm = volume / sma(volume, len_entropy). If this is above 1.5, it’s considered high volume (neon orange); below 0.7 is low (blue); otherwise normal (green). The dashboard shows this as a bar gauge and percentage. This is for context only.
Oscillator Plot – How to Read It
The main panel (oscillator) has multiple colored lines on a 0–1 vertical scale, with horizontal markers at 0.2 (Low), 0.5 (Mid), and 0.8 (High). Here’s each element:
Entropy Line (Blue→Pink) : This line (and its glow) shows normalized entropy (0 = very low, 1 = very high). It is blue/green when entropy is low (strong trend) and pink/purple when entropy is high (choppy). A value near 0.0 (below 0.2 line) indicates a very well-defined trend. A value near 1.0 (above 0.8 line) means the market is very random. Watch for it dipping near 0: that suggests a strong trend has formed.
Tradeability Line (Green→Yellow) : This represents normalized tradeability. It is colored bright green when tradeability is low, transitioning to yellow as tradeability increases. Higher values (approaching 1) mean big moves and strong slopes. Typically in a market rally or crash, this line will rise. A crossing above ~0.7 often coincides with good trend strength.
Filled Area (Orange Shade) : The orange-ish fill between the entropy and tradeability lines highlights when one dominates the other. If the area is large, the two metrics diverge; if small, they are similar. This is mostly aesthetic but can catch the eye when the lines cross over or remain close.
Rhythm (Cycle) Line : This is plotted as (best_lag / len_rhythm). It indicates the relative period of the strongest cycle. For example, a value of 0.5 means the strongest cycle was about half the window length. The line’s color (green, orange, or pink) reflects how strong that cycle is (green = strong). If no clear cycle is found, this line may be flat or near zero.
Cycle Strength Line : Plotted on the same scale, this shows the autocorrelation strength (0–1). A high value (e.g. above 0.7, shown in green) means the cycle is very pronounced. Low values (pink) mean any cycle is weak and unreliable.
Mode Bars (Bottom) : Below the main oscillator, thick colored bars appear: a green bar means Trending Mode, magenta means Choppy Mode, and cyan means Neutral. These bars all have a fixed height (–0.1) and make it very easy to see the current regime.
Optimal Regime Line (Bottom) : Just below the mode bars is a thick horizontal line at –0.18. Its color indicates regime quality: White (★) means “Optimal Regime” (very low entropy and high tradeability). Gold (★) means not quite optimal (high tradeability but entropy not low enough). Black means neither condition. This star line quickly tells you when conditions are ideal (white star) or simply good (gold star).
Horizontal Guides : The dotted lines at 0.2 (Low), 0.5 (Mid), and 0.8 (High) serve as reference lines. For example, an entropy or tradeability reading above 0.8 is “High,” and below 0.2 is “Low,” as labeled on the chart. These help you gauge values at a glance.
Dashboard (Fixed Corner Panel)
MERV also includes a compact table (dashboard) that can be positioned in any corner. It summarizes key values each bar. Here is how to read its rows:
Entropy : Shows a bar of blocks (█ and ░). More █ blocks = higher entropy. It also gives a percentage (rounded). A full bar (10 blocks) with a high % means very chaotic market. The text is colored similarly (blue-green for low, pink for high).
Rhythm : Shows the best cycle period in bars (e.g. “15 bars”). If no calculation yet, it shows “n/a.” The text color matches the rhythm line.
Cycle Strength : Gives the cycle correlation as a percentage (smoothed, as shown on chart). Higher % (green) means a strong cycle.
Tradeability : Displays a 10-block gauge for tradeability. More blocks = more tradeable market. It also shows “gauge” text colored green→yellow accordingly.
Market Mode : Simply shows “Trending”, “Choppy”, or “Neutral” (cyan text) to match the mode bar color.
Volume Regime : Similar to tradeability, shows blocks for current volume vs. average. Above-average volume gives orange blocks, below-average gives blue blocks. A % value indicates current volume relative to average. This row helps see if volume is abnormally high or low.
Optimal Status (Large Row) : In bold, either “★ Optimal Regime” (white text) if the star condition is met, “★ High Tradeability” (gold text) if tradeability alone is high, or “— Not Optimal” (gray text) otherwise. This large row catches your eye when conditions are ripe.
In short, the dashboard turns the numeric state into an easy read: filled bars, colors, and text let you see current conditions without reading the plot. For instance, five blue blocks under Entropy and “25%” tells you entropy is low (good), and a row showing “Trending” in green confirms a trend state.
Real-Life Example
Example : Consider a daily chart of a trending stock (e.g. “AAPL, 1D”). During a strong uptrend, recent prices fit a clear upward line, so Entropy would be low (blue line near bottom, perhaps below the 0.2 line). Volatility and slope are high, so Tradeability is high (green-yellow line near top). In the dashboard, Entropy might show only 1–2 blocks (e.g. 10%) and Tradeability nearly full (e.g. 90%). The Market Mode bar turns green (Trending), and you might see a white ★ on the optimal line if conditions are very good. The Volume row might light orange if volume is above average during the rally. In contrast, imagine the same stock later in a tight range: Entropy will rise (pink line up, more blocks in dashboard), Tradeability falls (fewer blocks), and the Mode bar turns magenta (Choppy). No star appears in that case.
Consolidated Use Case : Suppose on XYZ stock the dashboard reads “Entropy: █░░░░░░░░ 20%”, “Tradeability: ██████████ 80%”, Mode = Trending (green), and “★ Optimal Regime.” This tells the trader that the market is in a strong, low-noise trend, and it might be a good time to follow the trend (with appropriate risk controls). If instead it reads “Entropy: ████████░░ 80%”, “Tradeability: ███▒▒▒▒▒▒ 30%”, Mode = Choppy (magenta), the trader knows the market is random and low-momentum—likely best to sit out until conditions improve.
Example: How It Looks in Action
Screenshot 1: Trending Market with High Tradeability (SOLUSD, 30m)
What it means:
The market is in a clear, strong trend with excellent conditions for trading. Both trend-following and active strategies are favored, supported by high tradeability and strong volume.
Screenshot 2: Optimal Regime, Strong Trend (ETHUSD, 1h)
What it means:
This is an ideal environment for trend trading. The market is highly organized, tradeability is excellent, and volume supports the move. This is when the indicator signals the highest probability for success.
Screenshot 3: Choppy Market with High Volume (BTC Perpetual, 5m)
What it means:
The market is highly random and choppy, despite a surge in volume. This is a high-risk, low-reward environment, avoid trend strategies, and be cautious even with mean-reversion or scalping.
Settings and Inputs
The script is fully open-source; here are key inputs the user can adjust:
Entropy Window (len_entropy) : Number of bars used for entropy and tradeability (default 50). Larger = smoother, more lag; smaller = more sensitivity.
Rhythm Window (len_rhythm ): Bars used for cycle detection (default 30). This limits the longest cycle we detect.
Dashboard Position : Choose any corner (Top Right default) so it doesn’t cover chart action.
Show Heatmap : Toggles the entropy background coloring on/off.
Heatmap Style : “Neon Rainbow” (colorful) or “Classic” (green→red).
Show Mode Bar : Turn the bottom mode bar on/off.
Show Dashboard : Turn the fixed table panel on/off.
Each setting has a tooltip explaining its effect. In the description we will mention typical settings (e.g. default window sizes) and that the user can move the dashboard corner as desired.
Oscillator Interpretation (Recap)
Lines : Blue/Pink = Entropy (low=trend, high=chop); Green/Yellow = Tradeability (low=quiet, high=volatile).
Fill : Orange tinted area between them (for visual emphasis).
Bars : Green=Trending, Magenta=Choppy, Cyan=Neutral (at bottom).
Star Line : White star = ideal conditions, Gold = good but not ideal.
Horizontal Guides : 0.2 and 0.8 lines mark low/high thresholds for each metric.
Using the chart, a coder or trader can see exactly what each output represents and make decisions accordingly.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided as-is for educational and analytical purposes only. It does not guarantee any particular trading outcome. Past market patterns may not repeat in the future. Users should apply their own judgment and risk management; do not rely solely on this tool for trading decisions. Remember, TradingView scripts are tools for market analysis, not personalized financial advice. We encourage users to test and combine MERV with other analysis and to trade responsibly.
-BullByte
TheDevashishratio-MomentumThis custom momentum indicator is inspired by Fibonacci principles but builds a unique sequence with steps of 0.5 (i.e., 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, ...). Instead of traditional Fibonacci numbers, each step functions as a dynamic lookback period for a momentum calculation. By cycling through these fractional steps, you capture a layered view of price momentum over varying intervals.
The "Fibonacci" Series Used
Sequence:
0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, … up to a user-defined maximum
For trading indicators, lag values (lookback) must be integers, so each step is rounded to the nearest integer and duplicates are removed, resulting in lookbacks:
1, 2, 3, 4, ... N
Indicator Logic
For each selected lookback, the indicator calculates momentum as:
Momentum
n
=
close
−
close
Momentum
n
=close−close
Where:
close = current price
n = integer from your series of
You can combine these momenta for an averaged or weighted momentum profile, displaying the composite as an oscillator.
How To Use
Bullish: Oscillator above zero indicates positive composite momentum.
Bearish: Oscillator below zero indicates negative composite momentum.
Crosses: A cross from below to above zero may signal emerging bullish momentum, and vice versa.
Customization
Adjust max_step to control how many interval lags you want in your composite.
This oscillator averages across many short and mid-term momenta, reducing noise while still being sensitive to changes.
Summary
TheDevashishratio-Momentum offers a fresh momentum oscillator, blending a "Fibonacci-like" progression with technical analysis, and can be easily copy-pasted into TradingView to experiment and refine your edge.
For more on momentum indicator logic or how to use arrays and series in Pine Script, explore TradingView's official documentation and open-source scripts
Volume-Confirmed Price Momentum# **Volume-Confirmed Price Momentum (VCPM) Indicator**
## **🔍 Overview**
Introducing the **Volume-Confirmed Price Momentum (VCPM)**, a sophisticated dual-metric indicator designed to identify high-probability momentum moves by analyzing the relationship between price action and volume dynamics. This indicator combines correlation analysis with volume strength validation to filter out weak signals and highlight institutional-backed movements.
---
## **⚙️ Core Mechanics**
**Price-Volume Correlation Engine:**
- Calculates real-time correlation between price movements and volume
- Configurable lookback period (default: 8 bars)
- Option to use price changes or absolute values
- Correlation range: -1.0 (perfect negative) to +1.0 (perfect positive)
**Volume Strength Analyzer:**
- Compares current volume against its moving average (default: 128 periods)
- Normalizes volume ratio to 0-1 scale for consistent interpretation
- Identifies when volume significantly exceeds historical norms
---
## **📊 Signal Generation**
### **🟢 Bullish Confirmation Signal**
**Trigger:** Positive correlation > 0.6 + Volume ratio > 0.5
- Price and volume moving in harmony upward
- Above-average volume confirms the move
- Indicates strong institutional buying interest
### **🔴 Bearish Confirmation Signal**
**Trigger:** Negative correlation < -0.6 + Volume ratio > 0.5
- Price declining with increasing volume
- Suggests distribution or institutional selling
- High-confidence bearish momentum
---
## **🎯 Trading Applications**
**Breakout Validation:**
Filter false breakouts by requiring volume confirmation before entering positions.
**Trend Continuation:**
Identify when existing trends have strong volume backing for continuation plays.
**Distribution Detection:**
Spot potential tops when price struggles despite high volume (negative correlation).
**Entry Timing:**
Built-in alert system notifies when both conditions align for optimal entry points.
---
## **🔧 Customization Features**
- **Correlation Period:** Adjust sensitivity (2-500 bars)
- **Volume Averaging:** Modify volume comparison timeframe
- **Alert Thresholds:** Fine-tune correlation and volume ratio triggers
- **Visual Options:** Toggle volume histogram display
- **Price Source:** Choose from OHLC or custom sources
---
## **💡 Why VCPM Works**
Traditional momentum indicators often generate false signals during low-volume periods. VCPM solves this by requiring **dual confirmation**: price momentum must be supported by corresponding volume activity. This approach:
- Reduces whipsaws and false breakouts
- Identifies institutional participation
- Provides higher conviction trade setups
- Works across all timeframes and markets
---
## **📈 Best Use Cases**
✅ **Crypto markets** (high volatility, volume-driven)
✅ **Stock breakouts** (earnings, news events)
✅ **Forex majors** (during high-impact news)
✅ **Futures trading** (momentum confirmation)
---
## **⚠️ Important Notes**
- Works best in liquid markets with consistent volume data
- Combine with support/resistance levels for enhanced accuracy
- Consider market context (trending vs. ranging conditions)
- Not recommended for extremely low-volume periods
---
## **🚀 Getting Started**
1. Add VCPM to your chart as a sub-panel indicator
2. Configure correlation threshold (start with 0.6)
3. Set volume ratio threshold (start with 0.5)
4. Enable alerts for automated signal detection
5. Backtest on your preferred timeframe and instrument
---
**Ready to enhance your momentum trading with volume confirmation? Try VCPM and experience the difference institutional-backed signals can make in your trading results.**
*Available in Pine Script v6 - Compatible with all TradingView accounts*
Fibonacci Retracement Engine (DFRE) [PhenLabs]📊 Fibonacci Retracement Engine (DFRE)
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
Dynamic Fibonacci Retracement Engine (DFRE) is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that automatically detects important swing points and draws precise Fibonacci retracement levels on various timeframes. The intelligent indicator eliminates the subjectivity of manual Fibonacci drawing using intelligent swing detection algorithms combined with multi timeframe confluence analysis.
Built for professional traders who demand accuracy and consistency, DFRE provides real time Fibonacci levels that adapt to modifications in market structure without sacrificing accuracy in changing market conditions. The indicator excels at identifying key support and resistance levels where price action is more likely to react, giving traders a potent edge in entry and exit timing.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Intelligent Swing Detection Algorithm : Advanced pivot detection with customizable confirmation bars and minimum swing percentage thresholds
Multi-Timeframe Confluence Engine : Simultaneous analysis across three timeframes to identify high-probability zones
Dynamic Level Management : Automatically updates and manages multiple Fibonacci sets while maintaining chart clarity
Adaptive Visualization System : Smart labeling that shows only the most relevant levels based on user preferences
Real-Time Confluence Detection : Identifies zones where multiple Fibonacci levels from different timeframes converge
Automated Alert System : Comprehensive notifications for level breakouts and confluence zone formations
🔧 Core Components
Swing Point Detection Engine : Uses pivot high/low calculations with strength confirmation to identify significant market turns
Fibonacci Calculator : Automatically computes standard retracement levels (0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 0.886) plus extensions (1.272, 1.618)
Multi-Timeframe Security Function : Safely retrieves Fibonacci data from higher timeframes without repainting
Confluence Analysis Module : Mathematically identifies zones where multiple levels cluster within specified thresholds
Dynamic Drawing Management : Efficiently handles line and label creation, updates, and deletion to maintain performance
🔥 Key Features
Customizable Swing Detection : Adjust swing length (3-50 bars) and strength confirmation (1-10 bars) to match your trading style
Selective Level Display : Choose which Fibonacci levels to show, from core levels to full extensions
Multi-Timeframe Analysis : Analyze up to 3 different timeframes simultaneously for confluence identification
Intelligent Labeling System : Options to show main levels only or all levels, with latest-set-only functionality
Visual Customization : Adjustable line width, colors, and extension options for optimal chart clarity
Performance Optimization : Limit maximum Fibonacci sets (1-5) to maintain smooth chart performance
Comprehensive Alerting : Get notified on level breakouts and confluence zone formations
🎨 Visualization
Dynamic Fibonacci Lines : Color-coded lines (green for uptrends, red for downtrends) with customizable width and extension
Smart Level Labels : Precise level identification with both ratio and price values displayed
Confluence Zone Highlighting : Visual emphasis on areas where multiple timeframe levels converge
Clean Chart Management : Automatic cleanup of old drawing objects to prevent chart clutter
Responsive Design : All visual elements adapt to different chart sizes and timeframes
📖 Usage Guidelines
Swing Detection Settings
Swing Detection Length - Default: 25 | Range: 3-50 | Controls the lookback period for identifying pivot points. Lower values detect more frequent swings but may include noise, while higher values focus on major market turns.
Swing Strength (Confirmation Bars) - Default: 2 | Range: 1-10 | Number of bars required to confirm a swing point. Higher values reduce false signals but increase lag.
Minimum Swing % Change - Default: 1.0% | Range: 0.1-10.0% | Minimum percentage change required to register a valid swing. Filters out insignificant price movements.
Fibonacci Level Settings
Individual Level Toggles : Enable/disable specific Fibonacci levels (0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 0.886)
Extensions : Show projection levels (1.272, 1.618) for target identification
Multi-Timeframe Settings
Timeframe Selection : Choose three higher timeframes for confluence analysis
Confluence Threshold : Percentage tolerance for level clustering (0.5-5.0%)
✅ Best Use Cases
Swing Trading : Identify optimal entry and exit points at key retracement levels
Confluence Trading : Focus on high-probability zones where multiple timeframe levels align
Support/Resistance Trading : Use dynamic levels that adapt to changing market structure
Breakout Trading : Monitor level breaks for momentum continuation signals
Target Setting : Utilize extension levels for profit target placement
⚠️ Limitations
Lagging Nature : Requires confirmed swing points, which means levels appear after significant moves
Market Condition Dependency : Works best in trending markets; less effective in extremely choppy conditions
Multiple Signal Complexity : Multiple timeframe analysis may produce conflicting signals requiring experience to interpret
Performance Considerations : Multiple Fibonacci sets and MTF analysis may impact indicator loading time on slower devices
💡 What Makes This Unique
Automated Precision : Eliminates manual drawing errors and subjective level placement
Multi-Timeframe Intelligence : Combines analysis from multiple timeframes for superior confluence detection
Adaptive Management : Automatically updates and manages multiple Fibonacci sets as market structure evolves
Professional-Grade Alerts : Comprehensive notification system for all significant level interactions
🔬 How It Works
Step 1 - Swing Point Identification : Scans price action using pivot high/low calculations with specified lookback periods, applies confirmation logic to eliminate false signals, and calculates swing strength based on surrounding price action for quality assessment.
Step 2 - Fibonacci Level Calculation : Automatically computes retracement and extension levels between confirmed swing points, creates dynamic level sets that update as new swing points are identified, and maintains multiple active Fibonacci sets for comprehensive market analysis.
Step 3 - Multi-Timeframe Confluence : Retrieves Fibonacci data from higher timeframes using secure request functions, analyzes level clustering across different timeframes within specified thresholds, and identifies high-probability zones where multiple levels converge.
💡 Note: This indicator works best when combined with other technical analysis tools and proper risk management. The multi-timeframe confluence feature provides the highest probability setups, but always confirm signals with additional analysis before entering trades.
EVaR Indicator and Position SizingThe Problem:
Financial markets consistently show "fat-tailed" distributions where extreme events occur with higher frequency than predicted by normal distributions (Gaussian or even log-normal). These fat tails manifest in sudden price crashes, volatility spikes, and black swan events that traditional risk measures like volatility can underestimate. Standard deviation and conventional VaR calculations assume normally distributed returns, leaving traders vulnerable to severe drawdowns during market stress.
Cryptocurrencies and volatile instruments display particularly pronounced fat-tailed behavior, with extreme moves occurring 5-10 times more frequently than normal distribution models would predict. This reality demands a more sophisticated approach to risk measurement and position sizing.
The Solution: Entropic Value at Risk (EVAR)
EVaR addresses these limitations by incorporating principles from statistical mechanics and information theory through Tsallis entropy. This advanced approach captures the non-linear dependencies and power-law distributions characteristic of real financial markets.
Entropy is more adaptive than standard deviations and volatility measures.
I was inspired to create this indicator after reading the paper " The End of Mean-Variance? Tsallis Entropy Revolutionises Portfolio Optimisation in Cryptocurrencies " by by Sana Gaied Chortane and Kamel Naoui.
Key advantages of EVAR over traditional risk measures:
Superior tail risk capture: More accurately quantifies the probability of extreme market moves
Adaptability to market regimes: Self-calibrates to changing volatility environments
Non-parametric flexibility: Makes less assumptions about the underlying return distribution
Forward-looking risk assessment: Better anticipates potential market changes (just look at the charts :)
Mathematically, EVAR is defined as:
EVAR_α(X) = inf_{z>0} {z * log(1/α * M_X(1/z))}
Where the moment-generating function is calculated using q-exponentials rather than conventional exponentials, allowing precise modeling of fat-tailed behavior.
Technical Implementation
This indicator implements EVAR through a q-exponential approach from Tsallis statistics:
Returns Calculation: Price returns are calculated over the lookback period
Moment Generating Function: Approximated using q-exponentials to account for fat tails
EVAR Computation: Derived from the MGF and confidence parameter
Normalization: Scaled to for intuitive visualization
Position Sizing: Inversely modulated based on normalized EVAR
The q-parameter controls tail sensitivity—higher values (1.5-2.0) increase the weighting of extreme events in the calculation, making the model more conservative during potentially turbulent conditions.
Indicator Components
1. EVAR Risk Visualization
Dynamic EVAR Plot: Color-coded from red to green normalized risk measurement (0-1)
Risk Thresholds: Reference lines at 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 delineating risk zones
2. Position Sizing Matrix
Risk Assessment: Current risk level and raw EVAR value
Position Recommendations: Percentage allocation, dollar value, and quantity
Stop Parameters: Mathematically derived stop price with percentage distance
Drawdown Projection: Maximum theoretical loss if stop is triggered
Interpretation and Application
The normalized EVAR reading provides a probabilistic risk assessment:
< 0.3: Low risk environment with minimal tail concerns
0.3-0.5: Moderate risk with standard tail behavior
0.5-0.7: Elevated risk with increased probability of significant moves
> 0.7: High risk environment with substantial tail risk present
Position sizing is automatically calculated using an inverse relationship to EVAR, contracting during high-risk periods and expanding during low-risk conditions. This is a counter-cyclical approach that ensures consistent risk exposure across varying market regimes, especially when the market is hyped or overheated.
Parameter Optimization
For optimal risk assessment across market conditions:
Lookback Period: Determines the historical window for risk calculation
Q Parameter: Controls tail sensitivity (higher values increase conservatism)
Confidence Level: Sets the statistical threshold for risk assessment
For cryptocurrencies and highly volatile instruments, a q-parameter between 1.5-2.0 typically provides the most accurate risk assessment because it helps capturing the fat-tailed behavior characteristic of these markets. You can also increase the q-parameter for more conservative approaches.
Practical Applications
Adaptive Risk Management: Quantify and respond to changing tail risk conditions
Volatility-Normalized Positioning: Maintain consistent exposure across market regimes
Black Swan Detection: Early identification of potential extreme market conditions
Portfolio Construction: Apply consistent risk-based sizing across diverse instruments
This indicator is my own approach to entropy-based risk measures as an alterative to volatility and standard deviations and it helps with fat-tailed markets.
Enjoy!
