Moving Average With Risk:Reward**Title: A Detailed Guide to Using the Moving Average With Risk:Reward Indicator**
The dynamic world of financial markets offers a myriad of opportunities for market participants to make profitable trades. However, to unlock these opportunities, traders require reliable tools to guide their decisions, tools such as technical indicators. One such indicator is the 'Moving Average With Risk:Reward' Indicator, a versatile tool that combines the simple moving average (SMA), exponential moving average (EMA), Average True Range (ATR) indicator, and automated entry, stop-loss, and take-profit markers to provide a comprehensive analysis of market trends. This article aims to detail the use and interpretation of this indicator.
**Understanding the Building Blocks**
1. **Moving Averages (SMA & EMA):**
Moving averages are arguably some of the most common tools used by traders worldwide. They help smooth out price data to form a trend following indicator. Our custom indicator utilizes both a 21-period SMA, which averages the closing prices of the past 21 periods, and a 9-period EMA, which gives more weight to recent prices. The difference in sensitivity between these two moving averages forms the basis of our trade signals.
2. **Average True Range (ATR):**
The ATR is an essential component of our indicator. It measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period. It plays a critical role in determining the stop loss and take profit levels in our indicator, as detailed later.
**How the Indicator Works**
Our custom indicator works by generating buy or sell signals based on crossover and crossunder events between the SMA and EMA. A crossover occurs when the EMA (more sensitive to recent prices) crosses above the SMA, indicating upward momentum and hence triggering a buy signal. Conversely, a crossunder, where the EMA moves below the SMA, indicates increasing downward momentum and generates a sell signal.
Upon the generation of a signal, the indicator draws lines on the chart to represent the entry point, stop loss, and take profit levels. The user has the freedom to adjust the color of these lines for visual clarity. The script will also delete previous lines whenever a new signal is generated to avoid clutter and confusion.
**Determining the Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels**
Our custom indicator uses the ATR and a predetermined multiplier to calculate stop loss and take profit levels, thus incorporating market volatility into these critical decisions. The user can input their preferred multiplier for both stop loss and take profit.
Stop Loss (SL): SL is set at a level that is the ATR value multiplied by the stop-loss multiplier subtracted from (for a long position) or added to (for a short position) the closing price.
Take Profit (TP): Conversely, TP is set at a level that is the ATR value multiplied by the take-profit multiplier added to (for a long position) or subtracted from (for a short position) the closing price.
These SL and TP levels get plotted as horizontal lines on the chart, extending to the right. Labels are also placed to easily identify these levels.
**Making the Most of the Indicator**
A significant advantage of this indicator lies in its simplicity and clarity. Traders can clearly see the entry point, stop loss, and take profit levels on the chart. They can modify these levels based on their risk tolerance or trading strategy.
The combination of SMA and EMA offers the best of both worlds, with SMA providing a lagging, stable trend indication and EMA offering a more responsive indication to recent price changes. The indicator's use of ATR for SL and TP settings also ensures that these levels adapt to changing market volatility.
It is essential to remember that while this indicator can be an invaluable tool in a trader's arsenal, it is not infallible. Markets can often behave unpredictably, and even the most robust and reliable indicators can occasionally generate false signals. Therefore, traders should always employ sound money management strategies and use this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis to confirm signals and make informed trading decisions.
In conclusion, the Moving Average With Risk:Reward indicator provides a comprehensive and versatile tool that can significantly enhance trading strategies. Its integration of trend-following moving averages, volatility-adjusted stop loss and take profit levels, and clear chart visualizations make it a potent tool in the financial markets. By fully understanding how to interpret and utilize this indicator, traders can navigate the markets with increased confidence and precision.
In den Scripts nach "profit" suchen
ProfitAlgoOverview
ProfitAlgo is a powerful and intuitive trading tool specifically developed to cater to the requirements of both beginners and experienced traders. It is designed to function in every timeframe and on all cryptocurrencies, stocks, indices, forex, futures, currencies, ETF's, energy and commodities. This innovative tool provides real-time signals, comprehensive trend analysis, and advanced risk management features, making it an indispensable asset for traders of all levels. This cutting-edge tool generates 'BUY' and 'SELL' signals, complemented by an array of robust analytical tools. Empower your trading analysis with this all-in-one solution and add to your arsenal of indicators to make well-informed decisions.
This algorithm incorporates a sophisticated Fourier smoothing technique to effectively filter price data, reduce noise and reveal underlying patterns and trends. By utilizing multiple price series data and incorporating Price Volume Trend, it leverages volume analysis and price movement patterns. Furthermore, the algorithm employs relative and simple moving average calculations to enhance signal clarity and filter out outliers, resulting in a more refined and robust indicator.
Features
Buy/Sell signals: Visually illustrated by 'BUY' and 'SELL' labels, these signals provide indications to traders about optimal times to enter or exit positions in the market based on the particular asset they are trading. Traders may want to enter long positions when buy signals appear, and enter short positions when 'SELL' signals appear.
Stop Loss/Take Profit Levels: Stop loss and take profit levels are predefined price thresholds that allow traders to automatically exit trades to limit losses or secure profits, respectively. Stop loss and take profit levels are visually depicted through three dotted lines on the trading chart, including the entry price, take profit (TP), and stop loss (SL). Additionally, a table displays the corresponding price entries for all three levels, providing a comprehensive overview of the trade. Traders can effectively manage their risk and optimize their trading by implementing predefined threshold settings and establishing take profit levels, thus safeguarding their profits using a strategic approach.
Support and Resistance Levels: Support and resistance levels are key price levels in the market that act as barriers or turning points for the price movement of an asset. Traders utilize these levels to identify potential areas of buying and selling opportunities. These can be depicted as red (resistance) and green (support) horizontal lines. These levels can serve as valuable complements to stop/loss and take profit levels, providing confirmation for profit-taking opportunities and facilitating effective risk management. Moreover, they can synergistically work alongside the price lines to identify potential reversal zones by visualizing market highs/lows in conjunction with areas of supply & demand.
Moving Average Bands: Moving average bands, plotted alongside the price data, dynamically change color based on the prevailing trend, with red indicating a downtrend and green representing an uptrend. This visual tool provides valuable insights to users, allowing them to quickly identify and interpret market trends. Integrating Moving Average bands with our buy/sell signals offers added confidence in identifying market trends, enabling traders to seek validation and enhance their decision-making process.
Trend Table: The trend table provides real-time information on the current trend of an asset, displaying three distinct outputs: "Uptrend," "Downtrend," and "Ranging Trend." This valuable tool enables users to assess the live trend of an asset, which may differ from the buy/sell signals. The primary objective of this feature is to analyze real-time trends in both ranging and trending market conditions. While the current signal may indicate a 'BUY' signal, the table can present an alternative output, providing valuable insights for traders and investors.
Price Lines: Price lines are depicted as two parallel grey lines running alongside the price data, representing the highs and lows of the market. This visual tool is utilized to identify patterns of higher highs and lower lows, enabling traders to gain insights into the overall trend and potential reversals in the market. When used in conjunction with our signals, MA bands and trend table, it may reinforce your interpretation of the underlying trend as well as provide insights into the trend strength.
*Note: These features are customizable via the settings menu in TradingView.
Calculations
How are buy/sell signals calculated?
The buy and sell signals are generated through a comprehensive calculation process that encompasses various types of analysis techniques. With permission from the author, wbburgin's Fourier transform is utilized to filter and extract relevant information from the price data, removing noise from the signals (filter is only applied in this feature). The buy and sell conditions are calculated based on a combination of volume-based analysis, and price movement patterns, employed to assess the direction and strength of market trends. The combination aims to produce a comprehensive view of both volume-based and price-based market dynamics. By integrating these analysis techniques, traders can gain insights into the relationship between volume, price, and market trends. This combined approach, as well as Fourier smoothing, can help identify potential market reversals, confirm trend strength, produce less noisy data and provide additional confirmation signals for trading decisions. By considering the insights provided by this analysis, the algorithm determines the appropriate actions, signaling the opportunities to enter or exit positions in the market. In summary, these calculations aim to identify favorable trading opportunities by considering factors such as trend strength, volume dynamics, and price patterns, ultimately assisting traders in making well-informed decisions in the market.
How are stop/loss and take/profit levels calculated?
The stop loss and take profit levels are calculated using a combination of technical factors, including the Average True Range (ATR) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The rationale for this combination is to enable dynamic risk management and align profit targets with the prevailing market conditions; ATR provides a measure of volatility and risk, while EMA helps identify the underlying trend, allowing for effective stop-loss and take-profit placement. These indicators are utilized to gauge market volatility and determine suitable levels for managing risk and securing potential profits. By incorporating ATR and EMA calculations, the algorithm generates dynamic stop loss and take profit levels that adapt to market conditions.
Calculating support and resistance levels
These levels help identify areas where the price tends to find support (support levels) or encounter resistance (resistance levels). This script utilizes pivot point calculations to determine these significant price levels, which can assist traders in trading decisions regarding potential price reversals, trend continuations, and entry/exit points in their strategies.
What are the moving average bands based on?
The moving average bands, based on VWMA (Volume Weighted Moving Average) calculations using OHLC4 price data, are visualized as unique bands on the chart. VWMA bands are chosen to find trends because they effectively combine volume-weighted calculations with moving averages, providing valuable insights into the strength and direction of price movements. These bands dynamically change color to reflect the prevailing trend. In an uptrend, the bands are represented by a green color, while in a downtrend, they appear in red. The VWMA bands utilize a unique counting method to capture trend movements and potential reversals.
How is the Trend Table calculated?
The underlying trends in the trend table are calculated based on counting methods applied to the VWMA bands. It utilizes specific thresholds to determine different trends, such as "Up Trend," "Down Trend," and "Ranging Trend." These thresholds are used to assess the current trend of the asset and provide valuable insights for traders.
Price Lines Calculation
The price lines are calculated based on the price data. They represent the range of prices, with one line plotted above the closing price and another line plotted below it. The space between these lines is filled to visualize the price volatility. Traders can utilize these lines to identify significant price levels and observe the overall price movement.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in my indicators/strategies/systems is not intended as financial advice. I assume no responsibility for any losses or damages, including loss of profits, resulting from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments carry risks, and past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors bear full responsibility for their investment decisions, which should be based on their own evaluation of financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity requirements.
Please note that my indicators/strategies/systems are solely for educational purposes! DO NOT request access in the comment's section.
Rainbow IndicatorName of the indicator: Rainbow indicator
A brief description of the indicator:
Using this indicator, you can see the "margin of safety" for opening a position in shares of fundamentally strong companies with an acceptable P/E level, as well as the price range for closing a position.
The background to the creation of the indicator:
I got the idea to create this indicator thanks to the concept of the "margin of safety", which was invented by the father of value investing - Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated on the basis of financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety”. At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology.
So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better.
When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I am not trying to find the cherished intrinsic value, but I am trying to understand how fundamentally strong the company is in front of me, and in how many years the investment in it will pay off. To determine fundamental strength, I use the appropriate Fundamental Strength Indicator . To estimate the payback period, I use the P/E ratio (*). If I am satisfied with both of these indicators, I move on to the Rainbow Indicator.
(*) If you want to learn more about the P/E ratio, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView:
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1
Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2
Indicator calculation methodology:
The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter a year will mean the last 252 trading days.
Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price.
Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To do this, a certain amount of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year.
Deviations with a "-" sign form the Lower Rainbow of four colors:
- The blue spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS.
- Green spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS.
- The orange spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS.
- Red spectrum of the lower rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary.
Deviations with a "+" sign form the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors:
- The red spectrum of the upper rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS.
- The orange spectrum of the upper rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS.
- Green spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS.
- The blue spectrum of the upper rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity.
The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the blue spectrum of the upper rainbow has only one boundary.
The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs.
The situation, when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow, is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation .
The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach.
Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now.
Due to the fact that the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made:
- The Obverse situation is characteristic of companies that show a profit over the last year.
- The Reverse situation is typical for companies that show a loss over the last year.
- An increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells us about an increase in profits for the company.
- A decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells us about a decrease in the company's profits.
- An increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells us about an increase in the company's losses.
- A decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells us about a decrease in the company's losses.
- The higher the profit level of the company, the greater your "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in case you go into a cycle of declining financial results. The appropriate width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "margin".
- Increased profits in the company (after buying its stock) will allow you to stay in position longer by widening the Upper Rainbow.
- A decrease in profits in the company (after buying its stock) will allow you to close your position more quickly by narrowing the Upper Rainbow.
Conditions for opening and closing positions:
So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The blue spectrum is upper with respect to the green spectrum, and the green spectrum is lower with respect to the blue spectrum, etc.
- If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock.
- If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock.
(*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below).
The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position.
- If the current price is in the red spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the orange spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the orange spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the green spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the green spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
- If the current price is in the blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the blue spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts:
- If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line.
- If I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough available cash to purchase the necessary number of portions.
- If I find out about events that pose a real threat to the further existence of the company (for example, a bankruptcy filing), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to hit the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum.
So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra. For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the orange spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the blue, green, and orange spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if for some reason the orange spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the green spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the green spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow.
The Rainbow Indicator also helps calculate the number of shares that can be considered for purchase at the current price position in the Lower Rainbow spectra. To do this, you need to go to the indicator settings.
+ Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed profit/loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes
Here I indicate the amount of funds deposited to my account, withdrawn from it, profit/loss on closed positions, dividends credited to the account, and taxes deducted from the account.
Diversification coefficient
The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra).
The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded)
Here I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point in time, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000.
The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded)
Here I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares.
After entering all the necessary data, I go to the checkbox, by checking it I confirm that the company in question has been studied with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio, and their values are satisfactory to me. No calculation is performed without the checkbox checked. This is done intentionally because the application of the Rainbow Indicator for stock acquisition purposes is possible only after studying the Fundamental Strength of the company and an acceptable P/E value.
Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left.
Free cash in the portfolio
This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in.
Cash amount for one portion
The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. Depends on the diversification ratio entered.
Potential portions amount
Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. Can be a fractional number.
Cash amount to buy
The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price.
Shares amount to buy
Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price.
The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio.
Mandatory requirements for using the indicator:
- works only on a daily timeframe;
- the indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies;
- quarterly income statements for the last year are required;
- an acceptable for you P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase;
- the Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong.
What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator?
- clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics;
- shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position;
- takes into account the principle of gradual increase and decrease of a position;
- allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased;
- shows the current value of the P/E ratio;
- shows the current capitalization of the company.
Example:
As an example, consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA).
September 02, 2022:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me).
Current Price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share.
October 14, 2022:
NVDA's stock price has moved into the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me).
Current Price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share.
January 23, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock passes through the red spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the orange spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the red spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the orange spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares.
January 27, 2023:
NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the green spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock.
February 02, 2023:
The price of NVDA stock moves into the blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed.
As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only on the basis of the Rainbow Indicator.
As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA).
November 01, 2017:
Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company).
P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me).
Current Price - $62.26 (is in the blue spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion.
To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26.
August 8, 2018:
PZZA's share price has moved into the green spectrum of the Lower Rainbow.
The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company).
P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me).
Current Price - $38.94 (is in the green spectrum of the Lower Rainbow).
Situation - Obverse.
The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows:
The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions.
To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased.
October 31, 2018:
PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow red spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow red spectrum, there is no closing part of the position.
February 01, 2019:
After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the orange spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company).
March 27, 2019:
PZZA's stock price passes the green and blue spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%).
Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company.
Risk disclaimer:
When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Prior to the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning.
The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying taking into account the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
Goertzel Browser [Loxx]As the financial markets become increasingly complex and data-driven, traders and analysts must leverage powerful tools to gain insights and make informed decisions. One such tool is the Goertzel Browser indicator, a sophisticated technical analysis indicator that helps identify cyclical patterns in financial data. This powerful tool is capable of detecting cyclical patterns in financial data, helping traders to make better predictions and optimize their trading strategies. With its unique combination of mathematical algorithms and advanced charting capabilities, this indicator has the potential to revolutionize the way we approach financial modeling and trading.
█ Brief Overview of the Goertzel Browser
The Goertzel Browser is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that utilizes the Goertzel algorithm to analyze and visualize cyclical components within a financial time series. By identifying these cycles and their characteristics, the indicator aims to provide valuable insights into the market's underlying price movements, which could potentially be used for making informed trading decisions.
The primary purpose of this indicator is to:
1. Detect and analyze the dominant cycles present in the price data.
2. Reconstruct and visualize the composite wave based on the detected cycles.
3. Project the composite wave into the future, providing a potential roadmap for upcoming price movements.
To achieve this, the indicator performs several tasks:
1. Detrending the price data: The indicator preprocesses the price data using various detrending techniques, such as Hodrick-Prescott filters, zero-lag moving averages, and linear regression, to remove the underlying trend and focus on the cyclical components.
2. Applying the Goertzel algorithm: The indicator applies the Goertzel algorithm to the detrended price data, identifying the dominant cycles and their characteristics, such as amplitude, phase, and cycle strength.
3. Constructing the composite wave: The indicator reconstructs the composite wave by combining the detected cycles, either by using a user-defined list of cycles or by selecting the top N cycles based on their amplitude or cycle strength.
4. Visualizing the composite wave: The indicator plots the composite wave, using solid lines for the past and dotted lines for the future projections. The color of the lines indicates whether the wave is increasing or decreasing.
5. Displaying cycle information: The indicator provides a table that displays detailed information about the detected cycles, including their rank, period, Bartel's test results, amplitude, and phase.
This indicator is a powerful tool that employs the Goertzel algorithm to analyze and visualize the cyclical components within a financial time series. By providing insights into the underlying price movements and their potential future trajectory, the indicator aims to assist traders in making more informed decisions.
█ What is the Goertzel Algorithm?
The Goertzel algorithm, named after Gerald Goertzel, is a digital signal processing technique that is used to efficiently compute individual terms of the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). It was first introduced in 1958, and since then, it has found various applications in the fields of engineering, mathematics, and physics.
The Goertzel algorithm is primarily used to detect specific frequency components within a digital signal, making it particularly useful in applications where only a few frequency components are of interest. The algorithm is computationally efficient, as it requires fewer calculations than the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) when detecting a small number of frequency components. This efficiency makes the Goertzel algorithm a popular choice in applications such as:
1. Telecommunications: The Goertzel algorithm is used for decoding Dual-Tone Multi-Frequency (DTMF) signals, which are the tones generated when pressing buttons on a telephone keypad. By identifying specific frequency components, the algorithm can accurately determine which button has been pressed.
2. Audio processing: The algorithm can be used to detect specific pitches or harmonics in an audio signal, making it useful in applications like pitch detection and tuning musical instruments.
3. Vibration analysis: In the field of mechanical engineering, the Goertzel algorithm can be applied to analyze vibrations in rotating machinery, helping to identify faulty components or signs of wear.
4. Power system analysis: The algorithm can be used to measure harmonic content in power systems, allowing engineers to assess power quality and detect potential issues.
The Goertzel algorithm is used in these applications because it offers several advantages over other methods, such as the FFT:
1. Computational efficiency: The Goertzel algorithm requires fewer calculations when detecting a small number of frequency components, making it more computationally efficient than the FFT in these cases.
2. Real-time analysis: The algorithm can be implemented in a streaming fashion, allowing for real-time analysis of signals, which is crucial in applications like telecommunications and audio processing.
3. Memory efficiency: The Goertzel algorithm requires less memory than the FFT, as it only computes the frequency components of interest.
4. Precision: The algorithm is less susceptible to numerical errors compared to the FFT, ensuring more accurate results in applications where precision is essential.
The Goertzel algorithm is an efficient digital signal processing technique that is primarily used to detect specific frequency components within a signal. Its computational efficiency, real-time capabilities, and precision make it an attractive choice for various applications, including telecommunications, audio processing, vibration analysis, and power system analysis. The algorithm has been widely adopted since its introduction in 1958 and continues to be an essential tool in the fields of engineering, mathematics, and physics.
█ Goertzel Algorithm in Quantitative Finance: In-Depth Analysis and Applications
The Goertzel algorithm, initially designed for signal processing in telecommunications, has gained significant traction in the financial industry due to its efficient frequency detection capabilities. In quantitative finance, the Goertzel algorithm has been utilized for uncovering hidden market cycles, developing data-driven trading strategies, and optimizing risk management. This section delves deeper into the applications of the Goertzel algorithm in finance, particularly within the context of quantitative trading and analysis.
Unveiling Hidden Market Cycles:
Market cycles are prevalent in financial markets and arise from various factors, such as economic conditions, investor psychology, and market participant behavior. The Goertzel algorithm's ability to detect and isolate specific frequencies in price data helps trader analysts identify hidden market cycles that may otherwise go unnoticed. By examining the amplitude, phase, and periodicity of each cycle, traders can better understand the underlying market structure and dynamics, enabling them to develop more informed and effective trading strategies.
Developing Quantitative Trading Strategies:
The Goertzel algorithm's versatility allows traders to incorporate its insights into a wide range of trading strategies. By identifying the dominant market cycles in a financial instrument's price data, traders can create data-driven strategies that capitalize on the cyclical nature of markets.
For instance, a trader may develop a mean-reversion strategy that takes advantage of the identified cycles. By establishing positions when the price deviates from the predicted cycle, the trader can profit from the subsequent reversion to the cycle's mean. Similarly, a momentum-based strategy could be designed to exploit the persistence of a dominant cycle by entering positions that align with the cycle's direction.
Enhancing Risk Management:
The Goertzel algorithm plays a vital role in risk management for quantitative strategies. By analyzing the cyclical components of a financial instrument's price data, traders can gain insights into the potential risks associated with their trading strategies.
By monitoring the amplitude and phase of dominant cycles, a trader can detect changes in market dynamics that may pose risks to their positions. For example, a sudden increase in amplitude may indicate heightened volatility, prompting the trader to adjust position sizing or employ hedging techniques to protect their portfolio. Additionally, changes in phase alignment could signal a potential shift in market sentiment, necessitating adjustments to the trading strategy.
Expanding Quantitative Toolkits:
Traders can augment the Goertzel algorithm's insights by combining it with other quantitative techniques, creating a more comprehensive and sophisticated analysis framework. For example, machine learning algorithms, such as neural networks or support vector machines, could be trained on features extracted from the Goertzel algorithm to predict future price movements more accurately.
Furthermore, the Goertzel algorithm can be integrated with other technical analysis tools, such as moving averages or oscillators, to enhance their effectiveness. By applying these tools to the identified cycles, traders can generate more robust and reliable trading signals.
The Goertzel algorithm offers invaluable benefits to quantitative finance practitioners by uncovering hidden market cycles, aiding in the development of data-driven trading strategies, and improving risk management. By leveraging the insights provided by the Goertzel algorithm and integrating it with other quantitative techniques, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and devise more effective trading strategies.
█ Indicator Inputs
src: This is the source data for the analysis, typically the closing price of the financial instrument.
detrendornot: This input determines the method used for detrending the source data. Detrending is the process of removing the underlying trend from the data to focus on the cyclical components.
The available options are:
hpsmthdt: Detrend using Hodrick-Prescott filter centered moving average.
zlagsmthdt: Detrend using zero-lag moving average centered moving average.
logZlagRegression: Detrend using logarithmic zero-lag linear regression.
hpsmth: Detrend using Hodrick-Prescott filter.
zlagsmth: Detrend using zero-lag moving average.
DT_HPper1 and DT_HPper2: These inputs define the period range for the Hodrick-Prescott filter centered moving average when detrendornot is set to hpsmthdt.
DT_ZLper1 and DT_ZLper2: These inputs define the period range for the zero-lag moving average centered moving average when detrendornot is set to zlagsmthdt.
DT_RegZLsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the zero-lag moving average used in logarithmic zero-lag linear regression when detrendornot is set to logZlagRegression.
HPsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the Hodrick-Prescott filter when detrendornot is set to hpsmth.
ZLMAsmoothPer: This input defines the period for the zero-lag moving average when detrendornot is set to zlagsmth.
MaxPer: This input sets the maximum period for the Goertzel algorithm to search for cycles.
squaredAmp: This boolean input determines whether the amplitude should be squared in the Goertzel algorithm.
useAddition: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should use addition for combining the cycles.
useCosine: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should use cosine waves instead of sine waves.
UseCycleStrength: This boolean input determines whether the Goertzel algorithm should compute the cycle strength, which is a normalized measure of the cycle's amplitude.
WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture: These inputs define the window size for past and future projections of the composite wave.
FilterBartels: This boolean input determines whether Bartel's test should be applied to filter out non-significant cycles.
BartNoCycles: This input sets the number of cycles to be used in Bartel's test.
BartSmoothPer: This input sets the period for the moving average used in Bartel's test.
BartSigLimit: This input sets the significance limit for Bartel's test, below which cycles are considered insignificant.
SortBartels: This boolean input determines whether the cycles should be sorted by their Bartel's test results.
UseCycleList: This boolean input determines whether a user-defined list of cycles should be used for constructing the composite wave. If set to false, the top N cycles will be used.
Cycle1, Cycle2, Cycle3, Cycle4, and Cycle5: These inputs define the user-defined list of cycles when 'UseCycleList' is set to true. If using a user-defined list, each of these inputs represents the period of a specific cycle to include in the composite wave.
StartAtCycle: This input determines the starting index for selecting the top N cycles when UseCycleList is set to false. This allows you to skip a certain number of cycles from the top before selecting the desired number of cycles.
UseTopCycles: This input sets the number of top cycles to use for constructing the composite wave when UseCycleList is set to false. The cycles are ranked based on their amplitudes or cycle strengths, depending on the UseCycleStrength input.
SubtractNoise: This boolean input determines whether to subtract the noise (remaining cycles) from the composite wave. If set to true, the composite wave will only include the top N cycles specified by UseTopCycles.
█ Exploring Auxiliary Functions
The following functions demonstrate advanced techniques for analyzing financial markets, including zero-lag moving averages, Bartels probability, detrending, and Hodrick-Prescott filtering. This section examines each function in detail, explaining their purpose, methodology, and applications in finance. We will examine how each function contributes to the overall performance and effectiveness of the indicator and how they work together to create a powerful analytical tool.
Zero-Lag Moving Average:
The zero-lag moving average function is designed to minimize the lag typically associated with moving averages. This is achieved through a two-step weighted linear regression process that emphasizes more recent data points. The function calculates a linearly weighted moving average (LWMA) on the input data and then applies another LWMA on the result. By doing this, the function creates a moving average that closely follows the price action, reducing the lag and improving the responsiveness of the indicator.
The zero-lag moving average function is used in the indicator to provide a responsive, low-lag smoothing of the input data. This function helps reduce the noise and fluctuations in the data, making it easier to identify and analyze underlying trends and patterns. By minimizing the lag associated with traditional moving averages, this function allows the indicator to react more quickly to changes in market conditions, providing timely signals and improving the overall effectiveness of the indicator.
Bartels Probability:
The Bartels probability function calculates the probability of a given cycle being significant in a time series. It uses a mathematical test called the Bartels test to assess the significance of cycles detected in the data. The function calculates coefficients for each detected cycle and computes an average amplitude and an expected amplitude. By comparing these values, the Bartels probability is derived, indicating the likelihood of a cycle's significance. This information can help in identifying and analyzing dominant cycles in financial markets.
The Bartels probability function is incorporated into the indicator to assess the significance of detected cycles in the input data. By calculating the Bartels probability for each cycle, the indicator can prioritize the most significant cycles and focus on the market dynamics that are most relevant to the current trading environment. This function enhances the indicator's ability to identify dominant market cycles, improving its predictive power and aiding in the development of effective trading strategies.
Detrend Logarithmic Zero-Lag Regression:
The detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function is used for detrending data while minimizing lag. It combines a zero-lag moving average with a linear regression detrending method. The function first calculates the zero-lag moving average of the logarithm of input data and then applies a linear regression to remove the trend. By detrending the data, the function isolates the cyclical components, making it easier to analyze and interpret the underlying market dynamics.
The detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function is used in the indicator to isolate the cyclical components of the input data. By detrending the data, the function enables the indicator to focus on the cyclical movements in the market, making it easier to analyze and interpret market dynamics. This function is essential for identifying cyclical patterns and understanding the interactions between different market cycles, which can inform trading decisions and enhance overall market understanding.
Bartels Cycle Significance Test:
The Bartels cycle significance test is a function that combines the Bartels probability function and the detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function to assess the significance of detected cycles. The function calculates the Bartels probability for each cycle and stores the results in an array. By analyzing the probability values, traders and analysts can identify the most significant cycles in the data, which can be used to develop trading strategies and improve market understanding.
The Bartels cycle significance test function is integrated into the indicator to provide a comprehensive analysis of the significance of detected cycles. By combining the Bartels probability function and the detrend logarithmic zero-lag regression function, this test evaluates the significance of each cycle and stores the results in an array. The indicator can then use this information to prioritize the most significant cycles and focus on the most relevant market dynamics. This function enhances the indicator's ability to identify and analyze dominant market cycles, providing valuable insights for trading and market analysis.
Hodrick-Prescott Filter:
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular technique used to separate the trend and cyclical components of a time series. The function applies a smoothing parameter to the input data and calculates a smoothed series using a two-sided filter. This smoothed series represents the trend component, which can be subtracted from the original data to obtain the cyclical component. The Hodrick-Prescott filter is commonly used in economics and finance to analyze economic data and financial market trends.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is incorporated into the indicator to separate the trend and cyclical components of the input data. By applying the filter to the data, the indicator can isolate the trend component, which can be used to analyze long-term market trends and inform trading decisions. Additionally, the cyclical component can be used to identify shorter-term market dynamics and provide insights into potential trading opportunities. The inclusion of the Hodrick-Prescott filter adds another layer of analysis to the indicator, making it more versatile and comprehensive.
Detrending Options: Detrend Centered Moving Average:
The detrend centered moving average function provides different detrending methods, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the zero-lag moving average, based on the selected detrending method. The function calculates two sets of smoothed values using the chosen method and subtracts one set from the other to obtain a detrended series. By offering multiple detrending options, this function allows traders and analysts to select the most appropriate method for their specific needs and preferences.
The detrend centered moving average function is integrated into the indicator to provide users with multiple detrending options, including the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the zero-lag moving average. By offering multiple detrending methods, the indicator allows users to customize the analysis to their specific needs and preferences, enhancing the indicator's overall utility and adaptability. This function ensures that the indicator can cater to a wide range of trading styles and objectives, making it a valuable tool for a diverse group of market participants.
The auxiliary functions functions discussed in this section demonstrate the power and versatility of mathematical techniques in analyzing financial markets. By understanding and implementing these functions, traders and analysts can gain valuable insights into market dynamics, improve their trading strategies, and make more informed decisions. The combination of zero-lag moving averages, Bartels probability, detrending methods, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter provides a comprehensive toolkit for analyzing and interpreting financial data. The integration of advanced functions in a financial indicator creates a powerful and versatile analytical tool that can provide valuable insights into financial markets. By combining the zero-lag moving average,
█ In-Depth Analysis of the Goertzel Browser Code
The Goertzel Browser code is an implementation of the Goertzel Algorithm, an efficient technique to perform spectral analysis on a signal. The code is designed to detect and analyze dominant cycles within a given financial market data set. This section will provide an extremely detailed explanation of the code, its structure, functions, and intended purpose.
Function signature and input parameters:
The Goertzel Browser function accepts numerous input parameters for customization, including source data (src), the current bar (forBar), sample size (samplesize), period (per), squared amplitude flag (squaredAmp), addition flag (useAddition), cosine flag (useCosine), cycle strength flag (UseCycleStrength), past and future window sizes (WindowSizePast, WindowSizeFuture), Bartels filter flag (FilterBartels), Bartels-related parameters (BartNoCycles, BartSmoothPer, BartSigLimit), sorting flag (SortBartels), and output buffers (goeWorkPast, goeWorkFuture, cyclebuffer, amplitudebuffer, phasebuffer, cycleBartelsBuffer).
Initializing variables and arrays:
The code initializes several float arrays (goeWork1, goeWork2, goeWork3, goeWork4) with the same length as twice the period (2 * per). These arrays store intermediate results during the execution of the algorithm.
Preprocessing input data:
The input data (src) undergoes preprocessing to remove linear trends. This step enhances the algorithm's ability to focus on cyclical components in the data. The linear trend is calculated by finding the slope between the first and last values of the input data within the sample.
Iterative calculation of Goertzel coefficients:
The core of the Goertzel Browser algorithm lies in the iterative calculation of Goertzel coefficients for each frequency bin. These coefficients represent the spectral content of the input data at different frequencies. The code iterates through the range of frequencies, calculating the Goertzel coefficients using a nested loop structure.
Cycle strength computation:
The code calculates the cycle strength based on the Goertzel coefficients. This is an optional step, controlled by the UseCycleStrength flag. The cycle strength provides information on the relative influence of each cycle on the data per bar, considering both amplitude and cycle length. The algorithm computes the cycle strength either by squaring the amplitude (controlled by squaredAmp flag) or using the actual amplitude values.
Phase calculation:
The Goertzel Browser code computes the phase of each cycle, which represents the position of the cycle within the input data. The phase is calculated using the arctangent function (math.atan) based on the ratio of the imaginary and real components of the Goertzel coefficients.
Peak detection and cycle extraction:
The algorithm performs peak detection on the computed amplitudes or cycle strengths to identify dominant cycles. It stores the detected cycles in the cyclebuffer array, along with their corresponding amplitudes and phases in the amplitudebuffer and phasebuffer arrays, respectively.
Sorting cycles by amplitude or cycle strength:
The code sorts the detected cycles based on their amplitude or cycle strength in descending order. This allows the algorithm to prioritize cycles with the most significant impact on the input data.
Bartels cycle significance test:
If the FilterBartels flag is set, the code performs a Bartels cycle significance test on the detected cycles. This test determines the statistical significance of each cycle and filters out the insignificant cycles. The significant cycles are stored in the cycleBartelsBuffer array. If the SortBartels flag is set, the code sorts the significant cycles based on their Bartels significance values.
Waveform calculation:
The Goertzel Browser code calculates the waveform of the significant cycles for both past and future time windows. The past and future windows are defined by the WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture parameters, respectively. The algorithm uses either cosine or sine functions (controlled by the useCosine flag) to calculate the waveforms for each cycle. The useAddition flag determines whether the waveforms should be added or subtracted.
Storing waveforms in matrices:
The calculated waveforms for each cycle are stored in two matrices - goeWorkPast and goeWorkFuture. These matrices hold the waveforms for the past and future time windows, respectively. Each row in the matrices represents a time window position, and each column corresponds to a cycle.
Returning the number of cycles:
The Goertzel Browser function returns the total number of detected cycles (number_of_cycles) after processing the input data. This information can be used to further analyze the results or to visualize the detected cycles.
The Goertzel Browser code is a comprehensive implementation of the Goertzel Algorithm, specifically designed for detecting and analyzing dominant cycles within financial market data. The code offers a high level of customization, allowing users to fine-tune the algorithm based on their specific needs. The Goertzel Browser's combination of preprocessing, iterative calculations, cycle extraction, sorting, significance testing, and waveform calculation makes it a powerful tool for understanding cyclical components in financial data.
█ Generating and Visualizing Composite Waveform
The indicator calculates and visualizes the composite waveform for both past and future time windows based on the detected cycles. Here's a detailed explanation of this process:
Updating WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture:
The WindowSizePast and WindowSizeFuture are updated to ensure they are at least twice the MaxPer (maximum period).
Initializing matrices and arrays:
Two matrices, goeWorkPast and goeWorkFuture, are initialized to store the Goertzel results for past and future time windows. Multiple arrays are also initialized to store cycle, amplitude, phase, and Bartels information.
Preparing the source data (srcVal) array:
The source data is copied into an array, srcVal, and detrended using one of the selected methods (hpsmthdt, zlagsmthdt, logZlagRegression, hpsmth, or zlagsmth).
Goertzel function call:
The Goertzel function is called to analyze the detrended source data and extract cycle information. The output, number_of_cycles, contains the number of detected cycles.
Initializing arrays for past and future waveforms:
Three arrays, epgoertzel, goertzel, and goertzelFuture, are initialized to store the endpoint Goertzel, non-endpoint Goertzel, and future Goertzel projections, respectively.
Calculating composite waveform for past bars (goertzel array):
The past composite waveform is calculated by summing the selected cycles (either from the user-defined cycle list or the top cycles) and optionally subtracting the noise component.
Calculating composite waveform for future bars (goertzelFuture array):
The future composite waveform is calculated in a similar way as the past composite waveform.
Drawing past composite waveform (pvlines):
The past composite waveform is drawn on the chart using solid lines. The color of the lines is determined by the direction of the waveform (green for upward, red for downward).
Drawing future composite waveform (fvlines):
The future composite waveform is drawn on the chart using dotted lines. The color of the lines is determined by the direction of the waveform (fuchsia for upward, yellow for downward).
Displaying cycle information in a table (table3):
A table is created to display the cycle information, including the rank, period, Bartel value, amplitude (or cycle strength), and phase of each detected cycle.
Filling the table with cycle information:
The indicator iterates through the detected cycles and retrieves the relevant information (period, amplitude, phase, and Bartel value) from the corresponding arrays. It then fills the table with this information, displaying the values up to six decimal places.
To summarize, this indicator generates a composite waveform based on the detected cycles in the financial data. It calculates the composite waveforms for both past and future time windows and visualizes them on the chart using colored lines. Additionally, it displays detailed cycle information in a table, including the rank, period, Bartel value, amplitude (or cycle strength), and phase of each detected cycle.
█ Enhancing the Goertzel Algorithm-Based Script for Financial Modeling and Trading
The Goertzel algorithm-based script for detecting dominant cycles in financial data is a powerful tool for financial modeling and trading. It provides valuable insights into the past behavior of these cycles and potential future impact. However, as with any algorithm, there is always room for improvement. This section discusses potential enhancements to the existing script to make it even more robust and versatile for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading.
Enhancements for Financial Modeling
Data preprocessing: One way to improve the script's performance for financial modeling is to introduce more advanced data preprocessing techniques. This could include removing outliers, handling missing data, and normalizing the data to ensure consistent and accurate results.
Additional detrending and smoothing methods: Incorporating more sophisticated detrending and smoothing techniques, such as wavelet transform or empirical mode decomposition, can help improve the script's ability to accurately identify cycles and trends in the data.
Machine learning integration: Integrating machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks or support vector machines, can help enhance the script's predictive capabilities, leading to more accurate financial models.
Enhancements for General and Advanced Trading
Customizable indicator integration: Allowing users to integrate their own technical indicators can help improve the script's effectiveness for both general and advanced trading. By enabling the combination of the dominant cycle information with other technical analysis tools, traders can develop more comprehensive trading strategies.
Risk management and position sizing: Incorporating risk management and position sizing functionality into the script can help traders better manage their trades and control potential losses. This can be achieved by calculating the optimal position size based on the user's risk tolerance and account size.
Multi-timeframe analysis: Enhancing the script to perform multi-timeframe analysis can provide traders with a more holistic view of market trends and cycles. By identifying dominant cycles on different timeframes, traders can gain insights into the potential confluence of cycles and make better-informed trading decisions.
Enhancements for High-Frequency Finance Trading
Algorithm optimization: To ensure the script's suitability for high-frequency finance trading, optimizing the algorithm for faster execution is crucial. This can be achieved by employing efficient data structures and refining the calculation methods to minimize computational complexity.
Real-time data streaming: Integrating real-time data streaming capabilities into the script can help high-frequency traders react to market changes more quickly. By continuously updating the cycle information based on real-time market data, traders can adapt their strategies accordingly and capitalize on short-term market fluctuations.
Order execution and trade management: To fully leverage the script's capabilities for high-frequency trading, implementing functionality for automated order execution and trade management is essential. This can include features such as stop-loss and take-profit orders, trailing stops, and automated trade exit strategies.
While the existing Goertzel algorithm-based script is a valuable tool for detecting dominant cycles in financial data, there are several potential enhancements that can make it even more powerful for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading. By incorporating these improvements, the script can become a more versatile and effective tool for traders and financial analysts alike.
█ Understanding the Limitations of the Goertzel Algorithm
While the Goertzel algorithm-based script for detecting dominant cycles in financial data provides valuable insights, it is important to be aware of its limitations and drawbacks. Some of the key drawbacks of this indicator are:
Lagging nature:
As with many other technical indicators, the Goertzel algorithm-based script can suffer from lagging effects, meaning that it may not immediately react to real-time market changes. This lag can lead to late entries and exits, potentially resulting in reduced profitability or increased losses.
Parameter sensitivity:
The performance of the script can be sensitive to the chosen parameters, such as the detrending methods, smoothing techniques, and cycle detection settings. Improper parameter selection may lead to inaccurate cycle detection or increased false signals, which can negatively impact trading performance.
Complexity:
The Goertzel algorithm itself is relatively complex, making it difficult for novice traders or those unfamiliar with the concept of cycle analysis to fully understand and effectively utilize the script. This complexity can also make it challenging to optimize the script for specific trading styles or market conditions.
Overfitting risk:
As with any data-driven approach, there is a risk of overfitting when using the Goertzel algorithm-based script. Overfitting occurs when a model becomes too specific to the historical data it was trained on, leading to poor performance on new, unseen data. This can result in misleading signals and reduced trading performance.
No guarantee of future performance: While the script can provide insights into past cycles and potential future trends, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions can change, and relying solely on the script's predictions without considering other factors may lead to poor trading decisions.
Limited applicability: The Goertzel algorithm-based script may not be suitable for all markets, trading styles, or timeframes. Its effectiveness in detecting cycles may be limited in certain market conditions, such as during periods of extreme volatility or low liquidity.
While the Goertzel algorithm-based script offers valuable insights into dominant cycles in financial data, it is essential to consider its drawbacks and limitations when incorporating it into a trading strategy. Traders should always use the script in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools, as well as proper risk management, to make well-informed trading decisions.
█ Interpreting Results
The Goertzel Browser indicator can be interpreted by analyzing the plotted lines and the table presented alongside them. The indicator plots two lines: past and future composite waves. The past composite wave represents the composite wave of the past price data, and the future composite wave represents the projected composite wave for the next period.
The past composite wave line displays a solid line, with green indicating a bullish trend and red indicating a bearish trend. On the other hand, the future composite wave line is a dotted line with fuchsia indicating a bullish trend and yellow indicating a bearish trend.
The table presented alongside the indicator shows the top cycles with their corresponding rank, period, Bartels, amplitude or cycle strength, and phase. The amplitude is a measure of the strength of the cycle, while the phase is the position of the cycle within the data series.
Interpreting the Goertzel Browser indicator involves identifying the trend of the past and future composite wave lines and matching them with the corresponding bullish or bearish color. Additionally, traders can identify the top cycles with the highest amplitude or cycle strength and utilize them in conjunction with other technical indicators and fundamental analysis for trading decisions.
This indicator is considered a repainting indicator because the value of the indicator is calculated based on the past price data. As new price data becomes available, the indicator's value is recalculated, potentially causing the indicator's past values to change. This can create a false impression of the indicator's performance, as it may appear to have provided a profitable trading signal in the past when, in fact, that signal did not exist at the time.
The Goertzel indicator is also non-endpointed, meaning that it is not calculated up to the current bar or candle. Instead, it uses a fixed amount of historical data to calculate its values, which can make it difficult to use for real-time trading decisions. For example, if the indicator uses 100 bars of historical data to make its calculations, it cannot provide a signal until the current bar has closed and become part of the historical data. This can result in missed trading opportunities or delayed signals.
█ Conclusion
The Goertzel Browser indicator is a powerful tool for identifying and analyzing cyclical patterns in financial markets. Its ability to detect multiple cycles of varying frequencies and strengths make it a valuable addition to any trader's technical analysis toolkit. However, it is important to keep in mind that the Goertzel Browser indicator should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamental analysis to achieve the best results. With continued refinement and development, the Goertzel Browser indicator has the potential to become a highly effective tool for financial modeling, general trading, advanced trading, and high-frequency finance trading. Its accuracy and versatility make it a promising candidate for further research and development.
█ Footnotes
What is the Bartels Test for Cycle Significance?
The Bartels Cycle Significance Test is a statistical method that determines whether the peaks and troughs of a time series are statistically significant. The test is named after its inventor, George Bartels, who developed it in the mid-20th century.
The Bartels test is designed to analyze the cyclical components of a time series, which can help traders and analysts identify trends and cycles in financial markets. The test calculates a Bartels statistic, which measures the degree of non-randomness or autocorrelation in the time series.
The Bartels statistic is calculated by first splitting the time series into two halves and calculating the range of the peaks and troughs in each half. The test then compares these ranges using a t-test, which measures the significance of the difference between the two ranges.
If the Bartels statistic is greater than a critical value, it indicates that the peaks and troughs in the time series are non-random and that there is a significant cyclical component to the data. Conversely, if the Bartels statistic is less than the critical value, it suggests that the peaks and troughs are random and that there is no significant cyclical component.
The Bartels Cycle Significance Test is particularly useful in financial analysis because it can help traders and analysts identify significant cycles in asset prices, which can in turn inform investment decisions. However, it is important to note that the test is not perfect and can produce false signals in certain situations, particularly in noisy or volatile markets. Therefore, it is always recommended to use the test in conjunction with other technical and fundamental indicators to confirm trends and cycles.
Deep-dive into the Hodrick-Prescott Fitler
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a statistical tool used in economics and finance to separate a time series into two components: a trend component and a cyclical component. It is a powerful tool for identifying long-term trends in economic and financial data and is widely used by economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
The HP filter was first introduced in the 1990s by economists Robert Hodrick and Edward Prescott. It is a simple, two-parameter filter that separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component. The trend component represents the long-term behavior of the data, while the cyclical component captures the shorter-term fluctuations around the trend.
The HP filter works by minimizing the following objective function:
Minimize: (Sum of Squared Deviations) + λ (Sum of Squared Second Differences)
Where:
The first term represents the deviation of the data from the trend.
The second term represents the smoothness of the trend.
λ is a smoothing parameter that determines the degree of smoothness of the trend.
The smoothing parameter λ is typically set to a value between 100 and 1600, depending on the frequency of the data. Higher values of λ lead to a smoother trend, while lower values lead to a more volatile trend.
The HP filter has several advantages over other smoothing techniques. It is a non-parametric method, meaning that it does not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data. It also allows for easy comparison of trends across different time series and can be used with data of any frequency.
However, the HP filter also has some limitations. It assumes that the trend is a smooth function, which may not be the case in some situations. It can also be sensitive to changes in the smoothing parameter λ, which may result in different trends for the same data. Additionally, the filter may produce unrealistic trends for very short time series.
Despite these limitations, the HP filter remains a valuable tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It is widely used by central banks and financial institutions to monitor long-term trends in the economy, and it can be used to identify turning points in the business cycle. The filter can also be used to analyze asset prices, exchange rates, and other financial variables.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a powerful tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component, allowing for easy identification of long-term trends and turning points in the business cycle. While it has some limitations, it remains a valuable tool for economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
LuBotINTRODUCTION
This indicator was born from a personal need to have everything needed in one place and to allow any trader to see the market as I see it, so that everyone, even the novice trader, immediately feels at ease as I do me when I look at the graphs.
Over time I have also developed other indicators which I associate with the LuBot, however it is designed to be used as a standalone indicator which can suit any trading style.
Of course, no indicator or strategy can predict the future. Only a good mindset and good money management can lead you to be a consistently profitable trader in the long run. Which is why together with the indicator I will provide further examples of use with personal insights and thoughts about my way of seeing the market.
Below you will find everything you need to understand what you will get with this indicator and how to use it, but there are so many configurations that you can do that could make you find a better setup than mine as each of us has different needs and different timing.
Some of us don't mind keeping positions open overnight and others want to close everything by the end of the day. There are those who look at charts with very low timeframes and those like me who prefer to look at higher timeframes like the Daily for reasons of practicality and more "relaxed" timing.
Because of this I don't want to limit the use of the indicator to what is my way of using it. Each of us has different needs, and this indicator is used to show you the way forward and satisfy your needs.
WHAT IS LuBot?
LuBot is a multi-piece indicator that provides any trader with everything they need to trade in one place.
The idea is to make it easier to see the market and give everyone the opportunity to start trading with a simple method that is within everyone's reach.
The LuBot indicator works on any TradingView chart and timeframe and includes several basic components including:
- Long and Short signals: distinguishable in SwingSignals and MultiSignals.
SwingSignals have an alternating Long-Short sequence. The logic of these signals is to indicate the trend to follow which, if supported by the other components, allows inputs in favor of swings. MultiSignals signals add intermediate signals to favor entry even on a single signal and could be used both to add further confirmation to the trend-following trade and for scalping, thus exiting the trade as soon as possible.
- Reversal Bands : placed at the ends of the chart, they indicate an area of probable price reversal (overbought and oversold areas). They are divided into colored bands each of which increases its repelling force as the intensity of the color increases. If the price crosses an extreme we expect an even stronger reversal.
- Customizable Moving Averages : 3 in total which can be modified in length, source and type of moving average (ema, sma, wma, etc.). By default I have entered the settings that I use personally.
- Trend Cloud : colored band according to the trend. By default the colors are green for bullish trend, red for bearish trend and gray for sideways/neutral phase. Coupled with moving averages they are a perfect tool to better follow the trend.
- Swings : shows swings on the chart so you can better understand their structure and refine trend tracking. Excellent as reference points for new trades.
- Reversal Signals : small signals shown as arrows above and below the chart. Those above appear when the price is overbought, conversely those below appear when the price is oversold. They are not entry inputs but they help for both entry and exit of the trade.
- Trend Candles : the candles are colored according to the trend defined in the code. Additional support to avoid entering against the trend or to exit the market when the trend reverses.
- Supports and Resistances : supply and demand levels will appear automatically and will update over time. They take the pivot points as references and it is possible to modify their period. A higher value will show wider levels, a lower value will show levels based on the latest price movements.
- Trend Channel : Show an automatic trend channel based on the period entered in the settings. A value of 100 will show a channel based on the price average of the last 100 candles.
- Alerts : finally we find the alerts both for Long and Short signals and for the appearance of a new swing. Before activating alerts, make sure you have chosen the signal settings you prefer so that you only receive that type of alert. The alert will adapt to the parameters you have chosen and will notify you whenever a new signal or swing appears. The "Any function alert" will alert you whenever a Long or Short SwingSignals appear.
SIGNAL SETTINGS
These are the signal setting modes.
First we open the indicator settings by clicking on the gear in the upper left next to the indicator name, or by double clicking on one of the indicator components in the chart.
At this point a menu will open in which the various components appear in an orderly manner.
The first group concerns the signal settings.
The first item indicates the Signal Type in which we can choose whether to display the SwingSignals or MultiSignals signals.
The second item indicates the Signal Style in which we can choose a value from 0 to 3.
Value 0 will show all signals not filtered by the trend. The value 1 will add a first trend filter and increase the restriction on the trend by increasing the value.
Next we find 3 selectable boxes called Limit Signals.
Each of these boxes will add further filters to the signals in order to limit the signals in periods of laterality and to avoid an excess of signals shown on the chart.
By acting on these settings we could find the right setup that best suits our needs.
Finally, the last modifiable parameter concerns the display of the last signals which by default is set to 3000. This means that all the signals in the last 3000 candles will be displayed on the chart.
HOW I USE IT
As I wrote above my favorite timeframe is the Daily. This timeframe allows me to study the market very calmly and gives me all the time necessary to decide how to behave on the market. Furthermore, the Daily timeframe fits perfectly with my vision of trading, which is the one that allows you to have time for yourself instead of working all day and not being able to devote yourself to family or other businesses.
In this way I observe the market only in the morning or in the evening and thanks to this indicator I can make decisions very quickly unlike when I had to analyze chart by chart with other manual tools. Moreover, thanks to this configuration I can easily do everything from my smartphone. You don't know what satisfaction it feels like to sit comfortably on your sofa in the evening and observe the markets from your mobile phone and open and close trades thanks to this indicator.
Now let's move on to the practical part and see the main actions I take when I look at a graph from scratch. The examples will cover the Long position but the reverse applies for the Short position.
HOW TO ENTER THE MARKET
1- First I set the signals with the Limit Signals type 3 option and use the SwingSignals signals. In this way I avoid too much confusion in the graph and consider the last signal
that points me in the main direction to follow.
2- In the image above we see a Long signal as the last. So from then on I will only look for Long entries.
3- I wait for the TrendCloud to turn green and thus favor the direction bullish.
4- I wait for the price to rise above the ema21 (orange moving average set by default) and the TrendCloud.
5- If the TrendCloud is above the ema100 (blue moving average) and the ema200 (yellow moving average) this increases the idea of bullish strength.
6- I expect a retracement and then a return of prices towards the zone ema21 or TrendCloud.
7- At this point, as we can see from the image below, I start looking at the Swing.
Swings determine the structure and trend of the market.
Increasing highs and lows = Uptrend
Lower highs and lower lows = Bearish trend
If in this case the swing low is positive then HL (HigherLow) we are more likely to enter in favor of a positive trend and be able to bring home a profit.
8- The break of the high of the swing candle (the one where we find the label HL) is already an entry trigger in itself, but to improve the probability of success and avoid
entering false movements we add MultiSignals signals to have input patterns specific.
In this case we have a Long entry pattern so the entry on the break of the maximum is confirmed.
9- A further confirmation is given by the TrendCandles that we can activate from the settings. If the last candles are green and the candle of ours probable trade is also
green, we have a further confirmation of possible rise.
TRADE MANAGEMENT AND EXIT
1- The moment we decide to open the position we need to know in advance where you mainly enter the stop loss and then the take profit.
2- To enter the stop loss we can use the last swing low as reference, or the TrendCloud. Based on the risk you want to get on that trade.
If the conditions are particularly positive you can place the stop loss a few pips below the swing low. The take profit instead it depends on how long you want to hold the
trade. Personally I prefer to exit trades as soon as possible to avoid staying too long exposed to reversal risks. This is about a trading approach short term.
So it could be placed on the level of the previous high as in the following example.
In this case the trade lasts only 4 candles and the overnight costs and the risk of closing the trade with a loss are limited.
3- To view the exit levels for TP and SL you can also use the automatic Support and Resistance tool.
In this example we see that the closest support level coincided with the low of the swing so inserting the stop loss below the low of the swing would have had greater validity. The Take Profit, on the other hand, could be placed on the closest Resistance level.
4- A more conservative approach would lead us to place the stop loss below the TrendCloud or below the previous swing low (more recommended approach). In this way we
will avoid the risk of being stopped and subsequently seeing the market continue in our direction as often happens.
In this example we see a Long trade on a subsequent MultiSignals signal which is stopped when the price makes a retracement on the TrendCloud. In this case we see that if we had placed the stop below the previous swing low or below the TrendCloud we would still have remained in the market and would be positive.
5- In the example above, it must also be considered that the market had already made several positive swings without making a more important retracement on the
TrendCloud, so after making 1 or 2 trades I would avoid forcing too much by chasing all the signals because it is the most correct approach.
After 3-4 consecutive swings without retracements, I recommend waiting.
When the market has made a major retracement then the swing count can start over and we could enter on the next swing high mark or break.
CONCLUSIONS
As you will have understood, the main approach is Trend is Your Friend, the trend is our main friend in trading and insisting on counter-trend operations is not profitable and sustainable in the long run. Even with LuBot you can do countertrend trades but they are not the ones I recommend so I won't talk about them here.
Last but not least it must be said that the indicator does not repaint, this means that the signals will not disappear over time and the alerts are reliable.
Each of these components has been inserted on the basis of a personal need and on the basis of studies done directly by me in the field. This is the first official release after 3 years of developments.
This indicator is not a strategy, does not show backtest results and does not show Take Profit or Stop Loss levels. The purpose of this indicator is to give everyone an idea of price behavior and to implement a discretionary strategy. Signals are not always a reason to enter and TP and SL levels vary depending on the type of trade, which is why an automated backtest could show different results than you might have.
This indicator is intended to help the trader (beginner or not) to find the trades to make more easily and to allow anyone to follow a strategy. Since this is an indicator for discretionary trading, I don't invite you to follow all the signals, but to reason with all the tools available within it. When there are more elements that match, the chances of success are higher. You have to be patient and avoid getting caught up in haste and emotions. Considering that the market is unpredictable and there can be no certainties about its future movement, I take no responsibility for your use of this indicator.
Honeybridge WickFill & Momentum Shift IndicatorAs the creator of this script, I am proud to introduce the "Honeybridge WickFill & Momentum Shift Indicator," a powerful tool for traders looking to capitalize on market opportunities using these two proven strategies.
WICK FILLS
First, let's take a closer look at the WickFill method. In financial markets, candlestick charts are a popular way to visualize the price movement of a security, derivative, or currency over a specific time period. Each candlestick on the chart is composed of a real body and shadows, with the top of the upper shadow representing the highest price paid during the time period, and the bottom of the lower shadow representing the lowest price paid.
The WickFill method involves placing market orders at the closed price indicated by the candlestick. This means that if a trader using this method sees a long upper wick on a bullish candlestick chart, they may place a buy market order at the closed price of the candlestick with the take profit target at the candlestick high price (the highest price paid during the time period), in the belief that the price is likely to rise. Similarly, if they see a long lower wick on a bearish candle, they may place a sell market order at the closed price of the candlestick with the take profit target at the candlestick low price (the lowest price paid during the time period), in the belief that the price is likely to fall.
The idea behind the WickFill method is that the wicks of candlestick chart patterns can provide valuable information about the price action of a security and the sentiment of market participants. By placing market orders at the prices indicated by the candlesticks close, traders using this method hope to capitalize on potential price movements and maximize their returns.
The image below highlights two Wick Fill opportunities. A signal will be provided at the candle close that says: 'Sell WF' or 'Buy WF'.
--------------
MOMENTUM SHIFT REVERSAL
Now, let's turn to the Momentum Shift method. As the name suggests, this method involves identifying changes in the momentum of the price of a security. Traders who use this method are looking to capitalize on shifts in the strength or direction of the price momentum.
There are various ways to trade based on momentum shifts. For example, a trader may look for a security whose price is trending strongly in one direction and then look for a momentum shift that signals a change in the trend. They may then enter a trade in the direction of the new trend, hoping to ride the momentum of the price movement. Alternatively, a trader may look for a security whose price is moving in a range and then look for a momentum shift that signals a breakout from the range. They may then enter a trade in the direction of the breakout, hoping to capitalize on the momentum of the price movement.
--------------
WICK REJECTION REVERSALS
A second Momentum Shift method is the concept of wick rejection reversal trading opportunities. This is a powerful technique for traders looking to capitalize on market opportunities.
So, what exactly is a wick rejection reversal opportunity? Essentially, it is a situation in which the price of a security rejects a wick (or shadow or tail) of a candlestick chart pattern and then reverses direction. For example, if the price is trending upwards and then encounters resistance at a certain level, it may create a long upper wick on a candlestick chart. If the price then falls back below the level of resistance and continues trending downwards, this could be considered a wick rejection reversal opportunity.
Traders can use the Indicator and signals provided to identify wick rejection reversal opportunities by defining certain conditions. For example, the code includes conditions for identifying a "sell reversal" based on the presence of a green candle with a long upper wick, and an RSI value above a certain threshold. This type of setup may indicate that the price is rejecting the resistance represented by the long upper wick and is likely to continue trending downwards.
Similarly, the code includes conditions for identifying a "buy reversal" based on the presence of a red candle with a long lower wick, and an RSI value below a certain threshold. This type of setup may indicate that the price is rejecting the support represented by the long lower wick and is likely to continue trending upwards.
Traders can find wick rejection reversal opportunities particularly beneficial for several reasons. First, these opportunities can provide clear entry and exit points for trades, which can help traders manage risk and maximize their returns. By identifying a specific level of resistance or support that has been rejected by the price, traders can have a clear idea of where to place their orders and where to set their stop-losses.
Second, wick rejection reversal opportunities can be a reliable indicator of market sentiment and direction. By considering the wicks of candlestick chart patterns, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the forces at work in the market and how market participants are reacting to them. This can help traders make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades.
Finally, wick rejection reversal opportunities can be found in a variety of market conditions and across different financial instruments. Whether the market is trending, range-bound, or volatile, traders can use this indicator provided to identify wick rejection reversal opportunities and capitalize on them.
In conclusion, wick rejection reversal opportunities are a valuable technique for traders looking to capitalize on market opportunities and improve their returns. By using the indicator provided and considering the wicks of candlestick chart patterns, traders can identify clear entry and exit points, understand market sentiment, and trade across different market conditions and instruments.
The image below depicts two sell opportunities, the top left is a Momentum Shift example and the top right is a Wick Rejection example. A signal will be shown on the chart at the candle close that says: 'Sell R' or 'Buy R'.
--------------
CONCLUSION
So why might traders find the WickFill and Momentum Shift methods useful? There are several reasons. First, these methods can help traders identify potential trade opportunities that may not be immediately apparent from a simple analysis of price trends or chart patterns. By considering the wicks and momentum of a security's price movement, traders can gain a more nuanced understanding of the forces at work in the market and make more informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades.
Second, the WickFill and Momentum Shift methods can be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and techniques. For example, traders may use moving averages, oscillators, and trendlines to help confirm the presence of a WickFill or Momentum Shift opportunity. This can help traders increase the reliability and profitability of their trades.
Finally, the WickFill and Momentum Shift methods can be applied to a wide range of financial instruments, including stocks, forex, futures, and more. This versatility makes them useful for traders with diverse investment portfolios and strategies.
Overall, the WickFill and Momentum Shift methods are powerful tools for traders looking to capitalize on market opportunities and improve their returns. By considering the wicks and momentum of a security's price movement, traders can find profitable trading opportunities.
------------
FINAL COMMENT
Just like any other indicator or strategy out there, please consider the timeframe and asset that you are using this indicator with. Higher timeframe price action is more reliable than lower timeframe price action. For example, the 4H and Daily timeframes will provide more reliable signals than the 5m timeframe. With regards to assets, the indicator works extremely well with Forex pairs and Commodities, such as Gold.
I hope you enjoy the indicator.
Professional Zones - Institutional Demand and Supply Imbalances
Intro to Supply and Demand Zone Technical Analysis
Supply and demand is an increasingly common strategy among day and swing traders in equity, forex, and the futures markets. The goal of analyzing supply and demand zones is to pre-determine where price action may pivot before that pivot happens, thus giving us an edge over the market. There are many unique charting/trading strategies that fit under the supply and demand umbrella, however we are going to focus primarily on Institutional Zones of Demand and Supply Imbalances, as this is what our TradingView indicator actively displays.
What are Institutional Zones of Demand and Supply Imbalances?
First, let’s break down the phrase above. The first word is ‘institutional’, which is a key aspect in our trading. As a retail trader, you must understand that retail traders (individual traders like you and I) have very little control and very little effect on price action in the major markets. The price action that we see everyday is caused by large institutions and hedge funds buying and selling equities in massive quantities.
This chart displays the price action for ES, which is the S&P500 E-mini futures .
At the time this guide was created, that chart for ES displays the low of this year (2022). You can see major highs and major lows, as well as steep drops and momentous runs.
Price action like this appears random to the naked eye, however it is all controlled by major institutions. These institutions place large buy and sell orders for markets such as the S&P 500 Index which causes these moves.
Our Institutional Demand and Supply Analysis attempts to discover the price zones where institutions have placed their buy/sell orders. Their buy orders create “demand zones”. And their sell orders create “supply zones”. Knowing where these zones exist allows us to anticipate price trend reversals so we can profitably participate in them alongside the major institutions when these key moves take place.
We are looking for areas in the chart where institutions have created major imbalances (more buy orders than sell orders or vice versa) which creates demand and supply zones that impact price action and trend reversals in predictable ways.
What Causes These Supply and Demand Zones?
Understanding that institutions control the price of the markets is crucial for understanding how these zones of supply and demand imbalances are formed, and it can be derived from historical price action.
There are two types of price action, balanced and imbalanced. Balanced price action is flat, consolidatory price action where the overall direction is sideways. Imbalanced price action is an exaggerated move in price either up or down. Now here is the key: institutional supply and demand imbalances are formed when price action goes from balanced to imbalanced. Below is an example of balanced price action .
There are clearly areas of institutional buy and sell orders that are causing price action to oscillate between the areas of demand and supply. The longer price action consolidates and moves sideways, the larger the volume profile will be in this range. In other words, more institutional orders will build up as price remains relatively the same for a longer period of time.
Here is how a demand zone is formed :
Due to bullish CPI news, price action went from balanced to imbalanced by exploding to the upside. This bullish price action filled all of the sell orders and broke past the previous area of supply. Because price moved up so fast, the buy orders did not get a chance to fill, essentially leaving an area with a high concentration of buy orders remaining. Hence, a new demand zone is formed which is shown here .
Our state-of-the-art indicator automatically scans for these historical shifts in price action (balanced to imbalanced) via our supply and demand zone detection formula, and displays them on your chart instantly. Remember the first image sent of blank price action? Here it is below:
The image below shows the exact same chart of ES, however, our advanced Professional Zones - Institutional Demand and Supply Imbalances indicator has been applied to the chart.
Just like that, price action has been transformed from unexplainable chaos to an orderly sequence of demand bounces and supply rejections.
Yes, all of these zones may be charted manually if one were to acquire the knowledge required to chart them by hand, and spend numerous hours going back in time to find all these zones. Additionally, these charts would then have to be constantly monitored and updated, which would require hours of work each day. This powerful indicator automates all of that work to give you more precious time to analyze and trade these zone-driven pivots in the markets.
How To Measure the Strength of Supply and Demand Zones?
The longer the consolidation takes place, the larger the demand/ supply zone will be. This strength is measured by the time frame of the origin of the zone.
Each zone may be formed on a different time frame, the biggest being the 1 Month time frame, and the smallest being the 30 Minute. Each supply and demand zone is automatically labeled based on the time frame from which the zone originated.
The weakest zones are derived from the 30 minute time frame. This means the zone only took two 30 minute candles to form, which is not a lot of time for institutions to place large orders. This means that the bounces and rejections off of these zones will usually be smaller, and usually won’t last more than a few days.
Larger zones such as 1 Day, 1 Week, and 1 Month often cause large swings in the market lasting weeks, months and even years. So pay attention not just to where the demand and supply zones currently appear, but also to the strength of that zone. You can see below that the demand zone that the market bottomed in and reversed out of in 2022 was in fact, a very strong weekly zone.
What is the Significance of Supply and Demand Zone Breaks?
These zones are order-based. This means that a supply zone level doesn’t turn into demand when price action breaks above it, and demand doesn’t turn into supply when price action breaks below it. It is unlike standard trend-based support and resistance levels. If price action breaks below demand by even $0. 01 , all of the buy orders have been filled and the demand must be deleted from the chart (and vice versa for a supply zone ).
While it is possible to play these zone breaks as continuation plays off of current momentous price action, it is unpredictable how far price will go up or down after breaking supply or demand during that leg.
However, in my years of supply and demand experience, I have noticed that if demand breaks, the market will eventually come down to the next viable demand zone . This is because without a pivot caused by an institutional-created demand or supply imbalance, there is often not enough participation to cause a sustainable trend reversal for a long period of time. Below is an example of this:
Above is the 4 Hour chart of TSLA bouncing up off of a demand zone . We call this a bounce in “no man's land”, as there is no major demand bounce to support this reversal to the upside. So in theory, price action should return lower to the next major historical zone of demand before it has a chance of pulling off a solid reversal. Here is what happened:
As you can see above, TSLA did indeed end up heading back down into the next major demand zone before getting a sustainable reversal to the upside. So you may play these supply and demand zone breaks as continuation trades, either long or short, with a price target at the next major zone. Just make sure to use proper risk management and position sizing, as timing the trigger of a price target can be difficult.
How Might I Place a Trade Using the Indicator?
Now that the basics of institutional supply and demand zones have been discussed, there will come a time that this strategy must be actively applied to personal trading with a goal of becoming profitable. Here is a step-by-step process to place a trade using supply and demand paired with an example of a day trade from the 1 minute time frame.
Step 1: Find a highly institutionally traded stock that is currently in supply or demand as shown by our indicator. For example, AAPL:
Step 2: Look for an above-average (exaggerated) volume spike. Because we are in one of the green zones at the bottom of the chart, we know that we are in demand where large institutional buy orders reside. We need to wait for some of these orders to actually fill before we take our trade. This is known as volume confirmation. The color of the volume usually does not matter in this situation.
Step 3: Now that we have a volume spike which is confirmation of large orders being filled, we need more confirmation that the institutional orders are not only a buy, but large enough to actually reverse the current trend.
This is ultimately a judgment call. A few green candles may be good enough to dictate a reversal, or a trend break. It comes down to personal preference and how aggressive you would like to be. Keep in mind, the longer you wait, the more confirmation your trade has, but also, the longer you wait, the greater the risk of missing the new trend. In this example, we will use a trend line to confirm our trend reversal.
Step 4: Enter the trade. Now that you have proper demand confirmation, you may place your trade. Be sure to determine your stop loss, price target, position size, and all other risk management factors along the way.
In this example, AAPL ran all the way up to supply before rejecting; making for a perfect demand to supply call trade. Also, more short trade entries could have been taken based off of the multiple supply rejections AAPL had.
The Bottom Line
There are many ways one may go about trading the stock market. However in my years of trading and teaching, there has never been a strategy that has not only changed my career, but improved the trading careers of my students, more dramatically than Institutional Zones of Demand and Supply Imbalances.
Though charting new zones and deleting broken ones everyday was time consuming and repetitive, the results of trading these zones made it well-worth the hours of charting. However, after months of development and fine-tuning, the painful charting process has been automated by this powerful indicator, completely replacing the tedious charting work for myself and my students.
While numerous other indicators include the name “Supply and Demand Zones”, we believe that no supply and demand indicator remotely this advanced and accurate available on TradingView. I am very blessed to finally bring this revolutionary tool to the market.
Introduction to the Aurora Demand and Supply Indicator for TradingView and its Functionality
This page is dedicated to providing a thorough walk-through of our Professional Zones - Institutional Demand and Supply Imbalances indicator. The settings functionality, customizability, and purpose will be discussed to give you an in-depth understanding of the indicator. Understanding the purpose of the different functions and settings is crucial to utilizing this powerful tool at its full potential.
First Look Upon Indicator Addition
After purchasing the indicator, your chart may initially appear cluttered, zoomed out, and hard to read. But do not worry, it just means the indicator settings must be fine-tuned to optimize your experience. Tt may appear overwhelming. However this page will discuss each major customizable setting and the functionality behind it to streamline your TradingView set up.
Filter Options Settings Category
This is the first customizable feature that appears when accessing the settings of the indicator. What Filter Zone Ranges does is allow you to filter the range at which zones appear both above and below the current asset price. With this setting unchecked, every single demand and supply zone within the 5k candle limit (or 20k limit if you have a premium TradingView account) will appear on your chart. This causes chart clutter which limits the visibility of price action.
If you have this setting activated, you can choose exactly the range of zones visible to you. This range is percent based and is measured both above and below the current market price. For example, if you activate Filter Zone Ranges and set the Filter Percentage at 7%, only zones within the range of 7% above, and 7% below the current asset price will be shown.
Demand/ Supply Zone Options Settings Category
The next two categories contain the majority of the customizability for supply and demand zones. The first option in both the Demand/ Supply Zone Options is Create Demand/Supply Zones. This toggle is very straight forward, you may choose whether or not to display all demand zones, or all supply zones.
The next two options are Demand/ Supply Zone Border and Demand/ Supply Zone Fill. Again, these are straight forward. The border setting allows you to edit both the color and opacity of the zones’ border lines. The fill setting allows you to edit the color and opacity of the interior of the supply/demand boxes.
Following the first pair of visual settings, you will see Demand/ Supply Zone Box Offset. This allows you to toggle how much the indicator offsets each zone from its origin point. In other words, move it to the left or right from the point in time at which the zone was created. The 0 offset is the base setting which is actually a slight offset to the right of the origin point to ensure that the candlesticks remain unobstructed visually.
After the offset options, you will find Demand/ Supply Zone ERC Multiple. This is a key setting which inputs the value our formula utilizes to scan the areas of institutional supply and demand imbalances. Unless you are extremely experienced with supply and demand analysis or you are running backtesting, it is highly recommended this value is left at ‘2’ for both the demand and supply options.
The next two options you will see in your indicator settings are Extend Demand/ Supply Zone and Demand/ Supply Zone Size. This feature allows you to customize exactly how far your zones will extend from the point of origin into the future.
The three options on the drop down menu are Extend, Fixed, and Dynamic. Each of these options extend your zones in a different fashion. It is important to note that the value inputted in the size option is the amount of units the zones will extend to the right for both Fixed and Dynamic options. The larger this input is, the further out the zones will extend into the future, and vice versa.
The final setting in the Demand/ Supply Zone Options category is Broken Zones to Keep and Broken Demand/ Supply Zone Fill. The Broken Zones to Keep input allows you to see recent supply or demand zones that have been broken and deleted from your chart. This may be useful for a trader in a few different ways. The Broken Demand/ Supply Zone Fill setting allows you to customize the number of broken zones displayed as well as their color and opacity. The most prominent example of this option’s utility is for traders that do not observe price action during the entirety of the market open.
If an individual left their charts for a few hours and missed a demand break, it may give the illusion that there was never a demand there and price action has been in “no-man's land” all day. However if that individual inputted ‘1’ in the Broken Zones to Keep setting, they would be able to see that a demand has broken. This may be useful as the trader may have an altered sentiment after knowing that a zone did in fact break.
Note: the value inputted is the amount of previously broken zones that will appear on your chart. For example, if the value ‘3’ is inputted, the three most recently broken zones will appear on your chart.
Time Frame Options Settings Category
Time Frame Options Settings allows you to toggle which supply and demand zones appear on your chart by time frame. For example, if you are analyzing a chart on a larger time frame such as the daily or weekly, the small 30 minute and 45 minute zones will often clutter your chart. By deselecting the weaker and smaller time frame zones, it will clean your chart up, allowing you to only see the zones that assist your analysis.
However the first two options in the category are unique.The first is Show Forming Zones. This option is extremely useful if you are watching price action play out live, when seeing the possibility of a supply or demand zone forming may be of benefit during your day trading. By toggling this setting ON, you will see all possible supply and demand zones forming in real time. However, this could cause clutter if multiple zones are forming at once in which case, toggling it off may be more beneficial.
The second option in the Timeframe Options category is the Show Zones Inside toggle, which controls the table at the top right of your screen (you may get rid of this table by deselecting tables in display settings).
This setting simply is a “yes” or “no” as to whether or not the table located at the top right of your screen will display the number of zones price action is currently sitting in. This setting is useful as zones may sometimes pile up on top of one another, making it hard to know exactly how many zones price action is currently sitting in.
Gap Options Settings Category
Just below the Timeframe Options category, is the Gap Options category. Gaps appear when two daily candles highs and lows do not overlap. These are often created when a catalyst is released into the market overnight causing a large move, resulting in a “gap” up or down the next morning.
A Gap often forms due to a strong move to the upside, and the indicator highlights this gap with a gray box. Gaps are important to many traders as there is often a large lack of liquidity inside the gap area, which often acts as a magnet that attracts future price action to fill it. If toggled on, the indicator displays the gap among the supply and demand zones seamlessly. The rest of the settings for this category are options to customize the color, opacity, size, and offset. These have the same effect as the options in the Demand/ Supply Zone Options category.
Text Options Settings Category
The final category in the indicator input settings is Text Options. This category allows you to toggle zone labeling on or off, and to specify how you would like the zone labels to appear. It’s strongly recommended that zone labeling is left ON because knowing the time frame a supply or demand zone originated from is a massive indicator of its strength. Top right alignment causes labeling such as “3H” to appear at the top right of each zone.
Indicator Data Limitations
There are a few limitations of TradingView which impact the Professional Zones - Institutional Supply and Demand Imbalances indicator. The first is the data TradingView provides to its users. With a basic TradingView account, a user only has access to 5,000 candles of data. So if a user is on the 1 minute time frame, that user can only see 5,000 candles before that current point. This is important because our advanced indicator scans historical price action that has formed supply and demand zones and displays it on your chart. This means that if a user is on a 1 minute time frame chart, they will only be able to see zones formed within the last 5,000 candles. Older supply and demand zones can not be displayed. However if a user has the Premium TradingView subscription, they can access up to 20,000 candles, which greatly increases the potential zones the user may see on the smaller time frames.
To counter this, we strongly recommend checking the larger time frames before starting your trading day, as there could be an old zone lurking behind the scenes. Once you spot it on the 30 minute time frame, for example, you may easily take note of the demand zone and its location.
The Bottom Line
This indicator has been intricately and powerfully designed to not only display institutional supply and demand imbalances more accurately and efficiently than any other TradingView indicator, but it has also been designed to give the user full control. Full control means the user has the ability to customize the appearance and inputs, as well as toggle specific objects visible to the trader.
We have meticulously designed the Professional Zones - Institutional Supply and Demand Imbalances indicator to be extremely valuable as a stand-alone strategy, as well as versatile enough to incorporate multiple other trading strategies on top of supply and demand .
However, in order for this indicator to be utilized by you at its full potential, it is important that you understand all of its features, capabilities and configuration options before you dive into trading.
CFB-Adaptive Velocity Histogram [Loxx]CFB-Adaptive Velocity Histogram is a velocity indicator with One-More-Moving-Average Adaptive Smoothing of input source value and Jurik's Composite-Fractal-Behavior-Adaptive Price-Trend-Period input with Dynamic Zones. All Juirk smoothing allows for both single and double Jurik smoothing passes. Velocity is adjusted to pips but there is no input value for the user. This indicator is tuned for Forex but can be used on any time series data.
What is Composite Fractal Behavior ( CFB )?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included:
Bar coloring
3 signal variations w/ alerts
Divergences w/ alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
CFB-Adaptive, Williams %R w/ Dynamic Zones [Loxx]CFB-Adaptive, Williams %R w/ Dynamic Zones is a Jurik-Composite-Fractal-Behavior-Adaptive Williams % Range indicator with Dynamic Zones. These additions to the WPR calculation reduce noise and return a signal that is more viable than WPR alone.
What is Williams %R?
Williams %R , also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a type of momentum indicator that moves between 0 and -100 and measures overbought and oversold levels. The Williams %R may be used to find entry and exit points in the market. The indicator is very similar to the Stochastic oscillator and is used in the same way. It was developed by Larry Williams and it compares a stock’s closing price to the high-low range over a specific period, typically 14 days or periods.
What is Composite Fractal Behavior ( CFB )?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included:
Bar coloring
3 signal variations w/ alerts
Divergences w/ alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Trade & Risk Management Tool (Expo)█ Trade & Risk Management Tool (Expo) is a sophisticated and complete trading tool that helps traders manage their position and risk. This tool makes risk and trade management simple and convenient; literally, anyone can use it. The key feature is its ability to set the stop-loss automatically.
█ The key feature of this tool is that it sets the stop loss automatically depending on the current market characteristics; in other words, it's a stop-loss that adapts dynamically and optimizes to suggest the best possible stop-loss at that time. In addition, the user can set the preferred risk-reward, and the tool will automatically calculate the RR and Take Profit Levels for you. There is also a possibility to add up to 4 take profit levels, all based on your set RR.
The Auto Stop-loss feature comes with even more customization, and the trader can enable a trailing stop and set a custom stop-loss instead of using the default one.
█ The Trade & Risk Management Tool also calculates the current position P&L in points/pips or %. Positions size is automatically calculated based on the account size and % of the capital you want to risk. In addition, we have added Expected Return in % for the active position. This is a feature that experienced traders commonly use. Set the Probability of Gain and the Probability of Loss, and the tool will calculate the expected return based on the SL and TP. The probability of gain/loss can be calculated using historical data or for experienced traders by making an educated guess.
█ Why is this tool needed?
Trade & Risk management is a key concept to grasp and use in your trading, and it's one of the most critical aspects that will determine your long-term success in this industry. The market is uncertain, and it's impossible to know what the future holds. The only way to take control of the unknown is to have a sound risk management system that ensures you don't blow your account in one trade. Therefore all traders need to understand the importance of using a risk- and money management tool that calculates and provides stop-loss and take-profit levels in real-time. This way, you will always know where to take your stop-loss and secure profit.
The position size calculator prevents you from taking too much risk and the predefined stop-loss and take-profit levels help you manage your position. The tool makes sure you maximize the profit potential while minimizing the losses. It also prevents you from taking too much risk.
It all comes down to managing the risk and managing profit. Make sure that you always know how much you can risk at each trade, where to put your stop-loss, and take profit. A general rule is to find a good balance between reward and risk (RR), preferably a risk-reward ratio of 2:1 or 3:1, where your targeted profits are always double that of your maximum losses.
█ This trading tool makes something so important so easy for you, and it's a must-have to succeed in trading for the long term.
█ HOW TO USE
Use the tool to manage your active position.
-----------------
Disclaimer
Copyright by Zeiierman.
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Easy Backtester PROWHAT IS EasyBacktester ?
EasyBacktester is a tool that helps you backtest trading strategies built by yourself with an included strategy builder and a multitude of options.
From within the parameters of the tool, you can specifically pick your entry settings across 12 most common indicators, such as "RSI", "MACD", "Moving Averages" etc... Then you can immediately visualise your setup's Stop-loss & Take Profit, your expected Profits & Loss and a lot of other statistics for your entry strategy. Once you are satisfied with your entry strategy, you are given a set of tools to optimize your setup using stop-loss rules, take profits rules, partial profits, trailing-stops, entry timing...
WHY IS THIS TOOL DIFFERENT ?
EasyBacktester is a backtesting engine with no coding skills required. TradingView allows for "Strategy Scripting" using PineScript, which is not an option for non-coder audience. EasyBacktester fills this gap and allow non-coders to get an idea of how their trading strategies may perform using mouse clicks only.
Some similar attempts have been made on TradingView, allowing some limited options, but none have the same capabilities EasyBacktester offers, for instance, as of April 2022 these features have not been seen in any other TradingView tools:
- partial take profits
- leverage simulation
- a multitude of trailing stop-loss possibilities including trail triggers and trail parameters
- visualisation of entries including stop-loss, take profits, partial take profits, and trailing stops. One can now visualize such complex setups.
- visualisation of Profits & Loss
- time in trade
- wait strategy after a signal: for example, when RSI is oversold, "WAIT until price retraces 100% of the original signal" amongst other possibilities
QUICK START GUIDE:
STEP 1: DEFINE YOUR SIGNAL STRATEGY
From the settings of the tool, find the "SIGNALS STRATEGY" section.
Select a type of entry you wish to simulate, for example "LONGs", and activate the checkbox right before "Simulate".
Right below, you will find 4 signal builder for you to play with and pick your strategy accordingly.
For example, to simulate a signal when RSI is oversold, follow these steps:
- On the 1st multiple choice box, select "RSI"
- On the 2nd multiple choice box, select "is below..."
- On the 3rd multiple choice box, select "OverSold level"
Don't forget to activate this rule by checking the checkbox in front of it.
After this first step, one should immediately see the chart affected with some plots. The dots represents the signal entry defined by the rule we just created, and the red/green boxes visually represent trades that could have been taken with this signal which, in this example, occurs "when RSI is below oversold level". Note that all specific parameters for RSI including its specific "oversold level" is customisable at the end of the tools settings along with all other indicators settings.
STEP 2: STATISTICS
By default, the "APPEARANCE" section only plots potential entry signals (materialized by dots) and actual entry boxes (materialized by red/green boxes).
But the user can easily add other precious statistics to the chart, and obviously the most important one for backtesting: Profits & Loss (P&L).
In the "STATISTICS" section please check the "P&L" box to see appear a chart of the simulated P&L for our example. You should immediately see a new graph below the chart representing the evolution of the P&L after each entry.
Other statistics are available to the user, including: Equity, Number of Trades, Time in Position, Number of trades Won, Number of trades Lost, Number of trades Stopped.
Play around with those to see them plotted on your chart.
STEP 3: OPTIMIZE YOUR ENTRY
Under the "ENTRY STRATEGY" section, one can pick how to enter AFTER the signal, which provides the user with an extensive flexibility to pick its timing.
Here there are a various set of choices offered, ranging from the default "Market Order at Next Candle Open", to "Limit Order: at signal's candle open" or even "Stop-Buy: at break of last candle high". As its name suggests, this option allows you to actually wait before randomly enter in trade.
It is important to also note that the user can totally prevent entry if the conditions are not filled after a customizable number of candles represented in "Max bars to wait for entry" (default being 1, meaning the engine will wait the condition to be filled during only 1 candle)
STEP 4: MANAGE YOUR RISK
Under the "RISK MANAGEMENT" section, the user is given a series of options to set the amount (s)he would like to risk.
This is extremely important to set, and is the result of a combination of customizable options including:
- the Initial Capital of the account
- the amount to risk per trade, and HOW to risk it: some fixed % the initial equity or adjust the stop-loss to the desired risk ?
- use of leverage or not
- initial stop-loss, as well as minimum and maximum
- trailing stop-loss: what should trigger the trailing ? and by how much should the engine trail ?
STEP 5: HAVE AN EXIT PLAN
Under the "EXIT STRATEGY", the user can define how to exit the trade.
For instance, here again a lot of options are given:
- Take Profit: exit at some level of profits defined by a multiple of the stop-loss, or a multiple of the ATR, or some % or points
- Partial Profit taking before exit
- Panic close position after some time spent on the trade
STEP 6: FURTHER OPTIMIZATIONS
Under the sections "Commissions" & "Calendar & Sessions", one can simulate real trading conditions by including commissions fees as well as filtering actual dates and trading sessions. These sections are straightforward for any user to use.
SETP 7: INDICATORS SETTINGS
Since EasyBacktester uses a predefined set of indicators to get started, those indicators are also customizable in the last section of the settings. Here, one can easily customize RSI periodicity, MACD lengths, Moving averages types & lengths, ATR, etc...
STEP 8: GOING FURTHER
This is only a start to give users an overview of how various options affect their trading performance. But of course, each trader has its special recipe and specific detailed setup that is not possible to embed in a single tool. For advanced simulation, EasyBacktester provides plug & play connectors for advanced users. Namely, there are 3 connectors:
- signal connector
- trail trigger connector
- exit connector
Each of these connectors are an opportunity to customize the engine signals, trail trigger and exit choices with the user's own options. This case does require a little bit of coding, but it can easily be implemented by copy-pasting existing resources or with a slight help of a professional. In fact, the only conditions to build a proper connector is to export a plot with the numbers 1 (for signals), 2 (for trigger trails) and 3 (for exits). Here is an example of custom SIGNAL connector compatible with EasyBacktester, to produce a signal when last RSI was below 30 and current RSI reads above 30:
============================================================
//@version=5
indicator("My custom RSI signal")
// when previous RSI 14 was below 30 and current RSI 14 is above 30, set "custom_signal" to 1, otherwise set "custom_signal" to 0
custom_signal = ta.rsi(close, 14) < 30 and ta.rsi(close, 14) > 30 ? 1 : 0
// Export a plot of "custom_signal", but do not display it
plot(custom_signal, title="my signal", display=display.none)
============================================================
Once this indicator has been built, the user only needs to connect it with EasyBacktester as follow:
1. Open a desired chart, and add both EasyBacktester indicator as well as the custom "My custom signal" we just created above.
2. Open EasyBacktester's settings, and in the first option, there is "Connect signals source" which by default is set to "close". In the multiple choices, find your custom signal which should be named something like "My custom RSI signal: my signal", generally speaking the name is built like this " : ".
3. Now the custom code is connected to EasyBacktester, but we need to indicate the engine we actually want to use it as custom signal.
4. Under the "SIGNALS STRATEGY" section, where we generally build signals rules, there is special rule for this specific connection named "Use external source as entry signal". Just check the checkbox to activate it and see how the chart took our custom signal into consideration.
That's it for the overview of EasyBacktester. Thank you for reading and happy trading :)
[blackcat] L3 Chip TrendsLevel 3 (Stock ONLY)
Background
Chip theory is an intersting TA for trading. The profit and loss (pnl) ratio represents the ratio of profit-making or loss-making orders in the current market. The larger the profit ratio, the more investors are in a profitable state. Stock chip analysis is a kind of stock technical analysis. Investors can analyze it in combination with other indicators and data.
Function
This is a chip distribution and trend indicator I developed that consists of three different colored histograms. Yellow represents the percentage of floating chips, green represents the percentage of hold-ups, and red represents the percentage of profit. Among them, the more red columns, the more profitable chips, the more green columns, the more trapped chips. At the same time, I used three colored moving averages to represent the trends of these three types of chips for reference. At the same time, a table will appear in the middle of the indicator, indicating the chip ratio value of the latest bar in the form of a percentage.
Key Signal
profit chip percentage and trend--> red color
floating chip percentage and trend --> yellow color
loss chip percentage and trend --> green color
Remarks
This is a Level 3 free and closed source indicator.
NOT applicable for instruments except stocks.
Feedbacks are appreciated.
TT Price/Trend IndicatorThe TT Price/Trend Indicator identifies potential trend changes and advises of safe places to set orders at retracements.
Main Signals:
When a "BUY" signal prints, it is suggested to set a buy order at the Blue trendline and wait until price retraces back.
When a "SELL" signal prints, it is suggested to set a short order at the Blue trendline and wait until price rises up.
Take Profit:
The Reactive Trendline (the thick line that switches from Green to Red, and Red to Green frequently) is good at finding local bottoms.
It is suggested to Take Profit on your Long once you see the first switch from Green to Red. If the Reactive Trendline is already Red when your LONG order is filled, wait until it goes from Red-Green-Red to Take Profit.
It is suggested to Take Profit on your Short once you see the first switch from Red to Green. If the Reactive Trendline is already Green when your SHORT order is filled, wait until it goes from Green-Red-Green to Take Profit.
Stop Loss Suggestions:
If you are LONG (BUY), set your Stop/Loss to slightly below the last Higher Low (HL)
If you are SHORT (SELL), set your Stop/Loss to slightly above the last Lower High (LH)
Alternatively, if you want to maximise your Risk:Reward ratio, you can CLOSE your order once a candle engulfs and closes over both the Blue Line AND the Grey Line. Once these levels are broken and you are underwater, the risk to hold that position is no longer worth it. However, this approach can shake you out of winning trades, so I advise you to use other strategies such as Volume, Fibonnaci and RSI etc to help you make a final decision.
Important: If you are taking this approach, don't panic sell - wait for the close of the current engulfing candle to make this decision, because quite often it will just be a wick up or down in your favour.
What are the best Strategies?
The best timeframes are as follows:
- 1 Hour
- 2 Hour
- 4 Hour
- 1 Day
- 1 Week
My Favourite is 1 Hour.
Scalping for advanced traders:
- 1 minute
- 5 minutes
If you are scalping, it is highly recommended to use the TT Volume Indicator as well, to confirm price with volume (see scripts under my profile). Price on its own will not be good enough.
I also recommend the RSI with a 14 SMA to identify Strength breakouts.
Other Features:
- VWAP (Dotted Red/Green line) - this is common liquidity and can be one of the most important Support/Resistance levels in Crypto, which is why it is included.
Can you FOMO order?
Unless you are using this with a combination of other indicators (such as the TT Volume Indicator), it is not recommended to FOMO orders at the "BUY" or "SELL" signal unless you have a clear volume breakout. Please see this explanation on FOMO ordering for further information:
TradeChartist Actuator™TradeChartist Actuator is an extremely functional indicator that converts the price action volatility and momentum into a meaningful trading system (based on user defined Standard Deviation Factor), that consists of expanding/contracting Volatility Range Bands, Dynamic Trend Support/Resistance Bands and 2 types of Breakout Signals in a visually stunning design. The script also neatly packs in ZigZag & manual/automatic Fibonacci Retracement tools, option to filter the signals using an external filter and other useful extras like ™TradeChartist Dollar Candles and much more.
===================================================================================================================
™TradeChartist Actuator User Manual
█ Actuator Range Bands
Actuator Range Bands consists of a Mean line, an Upper Band and a Lower Band which are based on user defined Standard Deviation Factor (Default - 1.618, Min - 0.5, Max - 2). The 1.618 factor works extremely well as the unnecessary volatility data of the bands are eliminated by Actuator's logic. In my personal tests, 1.618 works consistently better than any other value in visually showcasing the true volatility range. By eliminating the unnecessary volatility data from the original non-stabilized bands, Actuator helps detect price momentum by detecting two types of breakouts.
Bands Breakout - Filtered
When the price breaks out of the upper or lower band after a trend, there is a strong possibility of a reversal especially when the volatility expansion/contraction takes place. This is detected using a built in filter with the Filtered Bands Breakout and the user can choose to use the closing price or High/Low price as the trigger for breakouts. This trade setup is very useful especially at zones where the Actuator Range Bands contract or squeeze after an expansion as shown in the OANDA:XAUUSD 1hr chart below.
Also, after a consistent expansion of the bands with price trending in the upper channel or the lower channel, users can spot good profit taking or Short trade opportunities with confirmation of overbought price and if possible a strong bear divergence as show in the BINANCE:LUNAUSDTPERP 1hr chart below.
It can be seen from the chart above that even though Actuator is designed to detect Extreme Bands Breakout using High/Low price, it is done with a little bit of filtering by the script logic and hence didn't generate a Bear signal at the lower band support zone.
Mean Breakout - Filtered
In most Mean Reversion models, mostly oscillators, the mean plays an important role in helping traders predict the price dynamic, but it also presents a challenge whether that mean will act as support or resistance so the trader can take a position that will have a high probability of success. Filtered Mean Breakout helps exactly to identify the price dynamic at the mean zone and helps reduce the dilemma. Actuator uses Volatility Trend and Momentum of the price action at mean to determine Bull/Bear breakouts. Following NASDAQ:AAPL 1hr chart shows an example of 2 instances of Filtered Mean Breakout detection, one bull and one bear and further area where no Breakout was detected in spite of price crossing the mean.
This Breakout type is really helpful in spotting early moves and also reduces the high volatility risk of Extreme Bands Breakout in some cases.
===================================================================================================================
█ External Filter
Actuator breakout signals can be further filtered using the feature of connecting an external signal as a trade filter.
External filter like RSI , MACD etc. can be used to filter breakouts by connecting to ™TradeChartist Actuator under ╔═══ 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝗴 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 ═══ 🔌 dropdown by enabling 𝐔𝐬𝐞 𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐢𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫.
To get the external filter to work, 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐲𝐩𝐞 must be set right. For plots that are non oscillatory like Moving Averages, Super Trend etc., choose type as Non Oscillatory and for Oscillators like RSI , CCI , MACD etc., choose type as Oscillatory .
For Oscillators, levels must be specified for 𝐎𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐅𝐢𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞 and 𝐎𝐬𝐜𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐅𝐢𝐥𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞, especially if the Oscillator doesnt have 0 as midline, like RSI . Even for 0 mid oscillators like CCI , filter levels like 100/-100 work effectively to filter noise.
Use 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥/𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐅𝐢𝐥𝐥 under Actuator Visuals section to paint the trade zones background. It helps visually see the effect of filters on the breakout entries and also the trade performance.
The following chart shows the Filter settings with ™TradeChartist Momentum Drift Oscillator connected to Actuator as Oscillatory signal with filter values 0.
The two example charts of 1hr BINANCE:BTCUSDT below shows the difference in Actuator signals based on Oscillatory signal from ™TradeChartist Momentum Drift Oscillator and the difference can be seen from the highlighted Bull/Bear Background Fill.
Without External Filter
With External Filter
===================================================================================================================
█ Dynamic Trend Support/Resistance Bands
In addition to Volatility Range Bands, Actuator also plots Dynamic Trend Support and Resistance bands that are more sensitive to price action and helps the user determine growing support/resistance which is indicated by coloured dots. These dots normally appear when the Support or Resistance stays at the same level for a few bars and change between Bull and Bear colours based on how the price interacts with them as shown below.
===================================================================================================================
█ Useful Trade Tools
™TradeChartist Dollar Candles
Dollar Candles help detect the volatility exhaustion prices and plots $ signs to help the trader take profits or move stop loss levels to secure gains. The $ signs do not appear for every trade zone, but whenever price hits a critical level, it shows up above price bar (for Bull trend) or below price bar (for Bear trend) in real time. Users can also set alerts for Dollar Candles with Once Per Bar setting. The Daily NASDAQ:TSLA chart below shows the Dollar Candles on both Bull and Bear trends.
It is important to note that taking pockets of profits on a leveraged trade position or moving up stop loss to maximize trend gains at $ candles will help increase Average Profitability Per Trade (APPT) .
Bull/Bear Background Fill
Bull/Bear Background Fill paints the trade zones in Bull and Bear colours. This helps visualize the difference in trade zones when testing various settings and also helps analyze past performance of Actuator Signals with or without the use of External Filter.
Entry Stop Loss Reference
Reference zone for stop loss has always been a tricky one for traders. Using a fixed percentage stop at entry may not be best during high volatility moves. Over the extensive period of Actuator testing, a simple solution to this problem was found. The previous trend's Range Bands Mean Line served as a perfect reference point for Entry Stop. Also while analysing this Mean line, it was found to be a perfect horizontal support/resistance line and also helped detect unproductive trades. The example 15m chart of NASDAQ:AMD shows how the Entry Stop Loss Reference performed.
Stop Line Touch Points plot orange touch points on the Stop Line whenever the price hits it during the trade.
Actuator Colour Bars
Actuator Colour Bars paints the Momentum Strength on the price bars. This helps visually see the price bars venturing into the Overbought or the Oversold zones. Also, this feature also helps spot divergences as higher highs or lower lows with less intense Bull/Bear colour than the previous high/low shows diminishing momentum as shown in the 1h chart of OANDA:GBPJPY below.
===================================================================================================================
█ ZigZag & Fibonacci Toolkit
Actuator plots developing and completed ZigZags based on Bull and Bear trend depending on the Breakout Type and Breakout Price from the settings.
Option to enable or disable 𝐙𝐢𝐠𝐙𝐚𝐠 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 which can be helpful for Harmonic traders.
Option to display 𝐙𝐢𝐠𝐙𝐚𝐠 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬/𝐋𝐨𝐰𝐬 and 𝐑𝐒𝐈 𝐚𝐭 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐬/𝐋𝐨𝐰𝐬 in one of two styles.
Two types of Fibonacci to choose from - 𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨-𝐅𝐢𝐛𝐬 and 𝐅𝐢𝐛𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤.
𝐀𝐮𝐭𝐨-𝐅𝐢𝐛𝐬 option plots Auto Fibonacci levels based on Bull/Bear trend depending on user specified Breakout Type and Breakout Price.
𝐅𝐢𝐛𝐬 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐨𝐨𝐤𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤 plots Fibonacci levels based on the highest high and lowest low of the lookback period (𝐃𝐚𝐲𝐬 or 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐥𝐞𝐬).
Fibonacci levels can be reversed by enabling 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐞 from settings.
Enabling 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐢𝐛 𝐋𝐚𝐛𝐞𝐥 displays the current Fib level of the developing price bar.
Option to customize Fib levels and colours.
4hr chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT showing Auto Fibonacci levels, Zig-Zag with Trend High/Lows, Zig-Zag connectors with Fib Ratios and RSI at Trend High/Low prices.
Note:
If momentum doesn't slow down, the fibs can extend beyond 1 and may continue way beyond 4.618 fib level. These are quite rare depending on how distant the near high/low is based.
ZigZag and Fibonacci are good reference indicators and should always be used as confirmations rather than standalone indicators.
===================================================================================================================
█ Actuator Colour Scheme
Actuator employs 3 built in colour schemes namely Chilli , Flame and Sublime Grayscale and a versatile colour scheme Custom which enables the user to customise the colour combinations of the components of the Actuator script.
===================================================================================================================
█ Alerts
Alerts can be created for the following.
Actuator Bull Breakout Signal - Once Per Bar Close
Actuator Bear Breakout Signal - Once Per Bar Close
Actuator Long Dollar - Take Profit - Once Per Bar
Actuator Short Dollar - Take Profit - Once Per Bar
Actuator Stop Line Hit - Once Per Bar
Note: The script doesn't repaint, so the alerts can be used with confidence. To check this, users can do bar replays to check if the plots and markers stay in the same place.
===================================================================================================================
Best Practice: Test with different settings first using Paper Trades before trading with real money
===================================================================================================================
Intraday FOREX london scalperThis forex System is only for ECN Broker Account.
Pairs: Major with spread < 0.0001 (EUR/USD).
Setup:
Wait for the market to make to 60 minute from the open.
If the market is near the intraday high be prepared to go short
If the market is near an intraday low for the same time period, then be prepared to go long.
Rules for entry
For sell setups: Enter on sell stop 1 pip from low of the last 15 min bar.
For buy setups: Enter in buy stop 1 pip from high of the last 15-minute bars.
Rules for exit
Take profit: Close out positions on 6 pips profit..
Stop Loss: Close out on 5 pips loss or if trade takes more than 1 minute.
MACD-Extendido-Indicador por NeilMACD-Extendida-Estrategia
--------------------------------
DESCRIPTION
Resource that identifies entry and exit operations using the indicator
Average Convergence and Divergence Movements (MACD) and 5 strategies
INTERESTING
Novel strategies are implemented such as:
1. Overbought and oversold band to avoid horizontal movements
2. Control inputs and outputs at positions opposite the histogram line
3. Make a profit (take profit) without prior purchase orders
HOW DOES IT WORK (STRATEGIES)
1) Overbought and oversold:
Allows you to define an overbought upper band
Allows you to define an oversold ower band
Operations that occur within the band are ignored
2) Place of next operation (either side):
Indicates that the next operation can occur on either side of the histogram
3) Place of next operation (opposite side):
Indicates that the next operation must occur on the opposite side of the histogram
4) Take profit:
It allows defining the deviation in favor to execute a take profit.
It does not place a buy order at a distant point, instead it looks back and if the shift meets the expected deviation, take profit is executed
5) Loss control (stop loss):
It allows to define the deviation against to execute a stop loss.
It does not place a stop order at a distant point, instead it looks back and if the displacement meets the expected deviation the stop loss is executed
How to use it:
Press the "Indicators" option, go to the "Public Librarian" segment, write the name "MACD-Extendido-Indicador Neil", double-click on the record in question and you will have it added in your work panel, now, just It remains to be used to identify the inputs and outputs and you can do it visually or by defining the automatic notification alerts.
DESCRIPCION
Recurso que identifica operaciones de entradas y salida haciendo uso del indicador
Media Móvil de Convergencia/Divergencia (MACD) y 5 estrategias
NOVEDADES
Se implementan estrategias novedosas como:
1. Banda de sobrecompra y sobreventa para esquivar movimientos horizontales
2. Control de entradas y salidas en posiciones contrarias a la línea del histograma
3. Toma de ganancias (take profit) sin ordenes de compra previa
COMO FUNCIONA (ESTRATEGIAS)
1) Sobrecompra y Sobreventa:
Permite definir una banda superior de sobrecompra
Permite definir una banda inferior de sobreventa
Operaciones que ocurren dentro de la banda son ignoradas
2) Lugar de próxima operación (cualquier lado):
Indica que la próxima operación puede ocurrir en cualquier lado del histograma
3) Lugar de próxima operación (lado opuesto):
Indica que la próxima operación debe ocurrir en el lado opuesto del histograma
4) Toma de ganancias (take profit):
Permite definir la desviación a favor para ejecutar una toma de ganancia.
No coloca una orden de compra en un punto distante, en su lugar mira hacia atrás y si el desplazamiento cumple con la desviación esperada se ejecuta la toma de ganancia
5) Control de pérdida (stop loss):
Permite definir la desviación en contra para ejecutar una parada de pérdida.
No coloca una orden de parada en un punto distante, en su lugar mira hacia atrás y si el desplazamiento cumple con la desviación esperada se ejecuta la parada de la pérdida
Como usarlo:
Presione la opción "Indicadores", ubíquese en el segmento "Libreria Publica", escriba el nombre "MACD-Extendido-Indicador por Neil", haga doble clic sobre el registro en cuestión y lo tendrá agregado en su panel de trabajo, ahora, solo resta usarlo para identificar las entradas y salidas y puede hacerlo de forma visual o definiendo las alertas de notificación automática.
Realtime Delta Volume Action [LucF]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator displays on-chart, realtime, delta volume and delta ticks information for each bar. It aims to provide traders who trade price action on small timeframes with volume and tick information gathered as updates come in the chart's feed. It builds its own candles, which are optimized to display volume delta information. It only works in realtime.
█ WARNING
This script is intended for traders who can already profitably trade discretionary on small timeframes. The high cost in fees and the excitement of trading at small timeframes have ruined many newcomers to trading. While trading at small timeframes can work magic for adrenaline junkies in search of thrills rather than profits, I DO NOT recommend it to most traders. Only seasoned discretionary traders able to factor in the relatively high cost of such a trading practice can ever hope to take money out of markets in that type of environment, and I would venture they account for an infinitesimal percentage of traders. If you are a newcomer to trading, AVOID THIS TOOL AT ALL COSTS — unless you are interested in experimenting with the interpretation of volume delta combined with price action. No tool currently available on TradingView provides this type of close monitoring of volume delta information, but if you are not already trading small timeframes profitably, please do not let yourself become convinced that it is the missing piece you needed. Avoid becoming a sucker who only contributes by providing liquidity to markets.
The information calculated by the indicator cannot be saved on charts, nor can it be recalculated from historical bars.
If you refresh the chart or restart the script, the accumulated information will be lost.
█ FEATURES
Key values
The script displays the following key values:
• Above the bar: ticks delta (DT), the total ticks for the bar, the percentage of total ticks that DT represents (DT%)
• Below the bar: volume delta (DV), the total volume for the bar, the percentage of total volume that DV represents (DV%).
Candles
Candles are composed of four components:
1. A top shaped like this: ┴, and a bottom shaped like this: ┬ (picture a normal Japanese candle without a body outline; the values used are the same).
2. The candle bodies are filled with the bull/bear color representing the polarity of DV. The intensity of the body's color is determined by the DV% value.
When DV% is 100, the intensity of the fill is brightest. This plays well in interpreting the body colors, as the smaller, less significant DV% values will produce less vivid colors.
3. The bright-colored borders of the candle bodies occur on "strong bars", i.e., bars meeting the criteria selected in the script's inputs, which you can configure.
4. The POC line is a small horizontal line that appears to the left of the candle. It is the volume-weighted average of all price updates during the bar.
Calculations
This script monitors each realtime update of the chart's feed. It first determines if price has moved up or down since the last update. The polarity of the price change, in turn, determines the polarity of the volume and tick for that specific update. If price does not move between consecutive updates, then the last known polarity is used. Using this method, we can calculate a running volume delta and ticks delta for the bar, which becomes the bar's final delta values when the bar closes (you can inspect values of elapsed realtime bars in the Data Window or the indicator's values). Note that these values will all reset if the script re-executes because of a change in inputs or a chart refresh.
While this method of calculating is not perfect, it is by far the most precise way of calculating volume delta available on TradingView at the moment. Calculating more precise results would require scripts to have access to tick data from any chart timeframe. Charts at seconds timeframes do use exchange/broker ticks when the feeds you are using allow for it, and this indicator will run on them, but tick data is not yet available from higher timeframes. Also, note that the method used in this script is far superior to the intrabar inspection technique used on historical bars in my other "Delta Volume" indicators. This is because volume and ticks delta here are calculated from many more realtime updates than the available intrabars in history. Unfortunately, the calculation method used here cannot be used on historical bars, where intrabar inspection remains, in my opinion, the optimal method.
Inputs
The script's inputs provide many ways to personalize all the components: what is displayed, the colors used to display the information, and the marker conditions. Tooltips provide details for many of the inputs; I leave their exploration to you.
Markers
Markers provide a way for you to identify the points of interest of your choice on the chart. You control the set of conditions that trigger each of the five available markers.
You select conditions by entering, in the field for each marker, the number of each condition you want to include, separated by a comma. The conditions are:
1 — The bar's polarity is up/dn.
2 — `close` rises/falls ("rises" means it is higher than its value on the previous bar).
3 — DV's polarity is +/–.
4 — DV% rises (↕).
5 — POC rises/falls.
6 — The quantity of realtime updates rises (↕).
7 — DV > limit (You specify the limit in the inputs. Since DV can be +/–, DV– must be less than `–limit` for a short marker).
8 — DV% > limit (↕).
9 — DV+ rises for a long marker, DV– falls for a short.
10 — Consecutive DV+/DV– on two bars.
11 — Total volume rises (↕).
12 — DT's polarity is +/–.
13 — DT% rises (↕).
14 — DT+ rises for a long marker, DT– falls for a short.
Conditions showing the (↕) symbol do not have symmetrical states; they act more like filters. If you only include condition 4 in a marker's setup, for example, both long and short markers will trigger on bars where DV% rises. To trigger only long or short markers, you must add a condition providing directional differentiation, such as conditions 1 or 2. Accordingly, you would enter "1,4" or "2,4".
For a marker to trigger, ALL the conditions you specified for it must be met. Long markers appear on the chart as "Mx▲" signs under the values displayed below candles. Short markers display "Mx▼" over the number of updates displayed above candles. The marker's number will replace the "x" in "Mx▲". The script loads with five markers that will not trigger because no conditions are associated with them. To activate markers, you will need to select and enter the set of conditions you require for each one.
Alerts
You can configure alerts on this script. They will trigger whenever one of the configured markers triggers. Alerts do not repaint, so they trigger at the bar's close—which is also when the markers will appear.
█ HOW TO USE IT
As a rule, I do not prescribe expected use of my indicators, as traders have proved to be much more creative than me in using them. Additionally, I tend to think that if you expect detailed recommendations from me to be able to use my indicators, it's a sign you are in a precarious situation and should go back to the drawing board and master the necessary basics that will allow you to explore and decide for yourself if my indicators can be useful to you, and how you will use them. I will make an exception for this thing, as it presents fairly novel information. I will use simple logic to surmise potential uses, as contrary to most of my other indicators, I have NOT used this one to actually trade. Markets have a way of throwing wrenches in our seemingly bullet-proof rationalizing, so drive cautiously and please forgive me if the pointers I share here don't pan out.
The first thing to do is to disable your normal bars. You can do this by clicking on the eye icon that appears when you hover over the symbol's name in the upper-left corner of your chart.
The absolute value and polarity of DV mean little without perspective; that's why I include both total volume for the bar and the percentage that DV represents of that total volume. I interpret a low DV% value as indecision. If you share that opinion, you could, let's say, configure one of the markers on "DV% > 80%", for example (to do so you would enter "8" in the condition field of any marker, and "80" in the limit field for condition 8, below the marker conditions).
I also like to analyze price action on the bar with DV%. Small DV% values should often produce small candle bodies. If a small DV% value occurs on a bar with much movement and high volume, I'm thinking "tough battle with potential explosive power when one side wins". Conversely, large bodies with high DV% mean that large volume is breaching through multiple levels, or that nobody is suddenly willing to take the other side of a normal volume of trades.
I find the POC lines really interesting. First, they tell us the price point where the most significant action (taking into account both price occurrences AND volume) during the bar occurred. Second, they can be useful when compared against past values. Third, their color helps us in figuring out which ones are the most significant. Unsurprisingly, bunches of orange POCs tend to appear in consolidation zones, in pauses, and before reversals. It may be useful to often focus more on POC progression than on `close` values. This is not to say that OHLC values are not useful; looking, as is customary, for higher highs or lower lows, or for repeated tests of precise levels can of course still be useful. I do like how POCs add another dimension to chart readings.
What should you do with the ticks delta above bars? Old-time ticker tape readers paid attention to the sounds coming from it (the "ticker" moniker actually comes from the sound they made). They knew activity was picking up when the frequency of the "ticks" increased. My thinking is that the total number of ticks will help you in the same way, since increasing updates usually mean growing interest—and thus perhaps price movement, as increasing volatility or volume would lead us to surmise. Ticks delta can help you figure out when proportionally large, random orders come in from traders with other perspectives than the short-term price action you are typically working with when you use this tool. Just as volume delta, ticks delta are one more informational component that can help you confirm convergence when building your opinions on price action.
What are strong bars? They are an attempt to identify significance. They are like a default marker, except that instead of displaying "Mx▲/▼" below/above the bar, the candle's body is outlined in bright bull/bear color when one is detected. Strong bars require a respectable amount of conditions to be met (you can see and re-configure them in the inputs). Think of them as pushes rather than indications of an upcoming, strong and multi-bar move. Pushes do, for sure, often occur at the beginning of strong trends. You will often see a few strong bars occur at 2-3 bar intervals at the beginning or middle of trends. But they also tend to occur at tops/bottoms, which makes their interpretation problematic. Another pattern that you will see quite frequently is a final strong bar in the direction of the trend, followed a few bars later by another strong bar in the reverse direction. My summary analyses seemed to indicate these were perhaps good points where one could make a bet on an early, risky reversal entry.
The last piece of information displayed by the indicator is the color of the candle bodies. Three possible colors are used. Bull/bear is determined by the polarity of DV, but only when the bar's polarity matches that of DV. When it doesn't, the color is the divergence color (orange, by default). Whichever color is used for the body, its intensity is determined by the DV% value. Maximum intensity occurs when DV%=100, so the more significant DV% values generate more noticeable colors. Body colors can be useful when looking to confirm the convergence of other components. The visual effect this creates hopefully makes it easier to detect patterns on the chart.
One obvious methodology that comes to mind to trade with this tool would be to use another indicator like Technical Ratings at a higher timeframe to identify the larger context's trend, and then use this tool to identify entries for short-term trades in that direction.
█ NOTES AND RAMBLINGS
Instant Calculations
This indicator uses instant values calculated on the bar only. No moving averages or calculations involving historical periods are used. The only exception to this rule is in some of the marker conditions like "Two consecutive DV+ values", where information from the previous bar is used.
Trading Small vs Long Timeframes
I never trade discretionary at the 5sec–5min timeframes this indicator was designed to be used with; I trade discretionary at 1D, 1W and 1M timeframes, and let systems trade at smaller timeframes. The higher the timeframe you trade at, the fewer fees you will pay because you trade less and are not churning trading volume, as is inevitable at smaller timeframes. Trading at higher timeframes is also a good way to gain an instant edge on most of the trading crowd that has its nose to the ground and often tends to forget the big picture. It also makes for a much less demanding trading practice, where you have lots of time to research and build your long-term opinions on potential future outcomes. While the future is always uncertain, I believe trades riding on long-term trends have stronger underlying support from the reality outside markets.
To traders who will ask why I publish an indicator designed for small timeframes, let me say that my main purpose here is to showcase what can be done with Pine. I often see comments by coders who are obviously not aware of what Pine is capable of in 2021. Since its humble beginnings seven years ago, Pine has grown and become a serious programming language. TradingView's growing popularity and its ongoing commitment to keep Pine accessible to newcomers to programming is gradually making Pine more and more of a standard in indicator and strategy programming. The technical barriers to entry for traders interested in owning their trading practice by developing their personal tools to trade have never been so low. I am also publishing this script because I value volume delta information, and I present here what I think is an original way of analyzing it.
Performance
The script puts a heavy load on the Pine runtime and the charting engine. After running the script for a while, you will often notice your chart becoming less responsive, and your chart tab can take longer to activate when you go back to it after using other tabs. That is the reason I encourage you to set the number of historical values displayed on bars to the minimum that meets your needs. When your chart becomes less responsive because the script has been running on it for many hours, refreshing the browser tab will restart everything and bring the chart's speed back up. You will then lose the information displayed on elapsed bars.
Neutral Volume
This script represents a departure from the way I have previously calculated volume delta in my scripts. I used the notion of "neutral volume" when inspecting intrabar timeframes, for bars where price did not move. No longer. While this had little impact when using intrabar inspection because the minimum usable timeframe was 1min (where bars with zero movement are relatively infrequent), a more precise way was required to handle realtime updates, where multiple consecutive prices often have the same value. This will usually happen whenever orders are unable to move across the bid/ask levels, either because of slow action or because a large-volume bid/ask level is taking time to breach. In either case, the proper way to calculate the polarity of volume delta for those updates is to use the last known polarity, which is how I calculate now.
The Order Book
Without access to the order book's levels (the depth of market), we are limited to analyzing transactions that come in the TradingView feed for the chart. That does not mean the volume delta information calculated this way is irrelevant; on the contrary, much of the information calculated here is not available in trading consoles supplied by exchanges/brokers. Yet it's important to realize that without access to the order book, you are forfeiting the valuable information that can be gleaned from it. The order book's levels are always in movement, of course, and some of the information they contain is mere posturing, i.e., attempts to influence the behavior of other players in the market by traders/systems who will often remove their orders when price comes near their order levels. Nonetheless, the order book is an essential tool for serious traders operating at intraday timeframes. It can be used to time entries/exits, to explain the causes of particular price movements, to determine optimal stop levels, to get to know the traders/systems you are betting against (they tend to exhibit behavioral patterns only recognizable through the order book), etc. This tool in no way makes the order book less useful; I encourage all intraday traders to become familiar with it and avoid trading without one.
BitcoinNinjas NINJASIGNALS V4 (Script)BitcoinNinjas NINJASIGNALS V4 (Script)
(for Cryptocurrencies, Forex, GunBot, ProfitTrailer, Autoview, CryptoHopper, manual or automated trading, and more)
This is version 4 of our Ninja Signals trading script, with accompanying backtesting strategy.
BitcoinNinjas NINJASIGNALS V4 (Strategy)
•Allows users to easily set automated buy/long and sell/short alerts on TradingView for use with automatic and manual trading of cryptocurrencies, Forex securities, and more (alerts are compatible with automatic trading software such as GunBot, ProfitTrailer, Autoview, CryptoHopper, and more).
•Synthesizes many powerful indicators [e.g., Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic RSI, Money Flow Index (MFI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), etc.) into one powerful script to generate very precise buy and sell signals in virtually all market conditions.
•Features user-defined adjustable calibration settings, allowing traders to customize the script to fit any currency / security on any exchange available through TradingView.com, simply by adjusting settings.
•Buy/Long arrows, Sell/Short arrows, & EMA trendline can be customized or hidden, if desired.
•Complete with backtesting strategy version of script which allows users to test various trading strategies based on the alerts the script generates (see information and screenshots below).
•Backtesting strategy features a user-defined adjustable date range, so traders can estimate performance of the script over specific periods of time, such as the last week, month, or year.
•Script and backtesting strategy feature many user-adjustable settings including stop loss and take profit alerts, an ‘only sell for profit’ option (Gunbot-specific), many different buy and sell filters, and more. Simply adjust the script settings and the backtesting results will automatically refresh.
•Backtesting strategy allows for pyramid buying to test various average down / dollar cost average trading strategies. Simply adjust the number of pyramid buys and the quantity of each buy.
•Fully compatible with margin and futures trading for any currency / security on TradingView.com.
DISCLAIMER: By using our BitcoinNinjas ‘Ninja Signals’ planning script, you agree to the BitcoinNinjas 'Terms of Use'. No sharing, copying, reselling, modifying, or any other forms of use are authorized for our documents, script / strategy, and the information published with them. This informational planning script / strategy is strictly for individual use and educational purposes only. This is not financial or investment advice. Investments are always made at your own risk and are based on your personal judgement. BitcoinNinjas is not responsible for any losses you may incur. Please invest wisely.
[astropark] Volume AnalyzerDear Followers,
today another awesome Analysis Tool, that you can use for day scalping: Volume Analyzer !
This indicator
works on every market, pair and timeframe
lets you see analysis of a different timeframes using the resolution parameter
has an optional trend colored background (I suggest to disable it if you use a different resolution)
integrates a tape profit strategy based on RSI (you can config it and enable/disable it)
lets you setup alarms on bull/bear signal as well as on TP RSI-based signals
I prefer to use this indicator in my day trading on low timeframes , like 5m - 15m - 1h, as you can have access to a more detailed volume information, but it works on high timeframes too as you can see in examples at the bottom of the description.
I truly think that Volume says a lot about future price action, as stated in my Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator, which you can find here below:
In this indicator, I'm much more interested in the bullish or bearish effect of volume generated by traders and following price action.
Be sure to understand that at current status this is not a complete automated strategy, but an analysis tool which aims to give you a positive bias, a profitable hedge in your trading journey.
As I always say, all tools are great if you use them correctly: this is not the "Holy Grail", so always use proper money and risk management strategies.
This indicator quite often calls bottoms and tops , most of the times it announces a coming reversals , sometimes it fails too of course.
Check this screenshot to have a clear idea of what I'm talking about:
You are supposed to discard signals of the same type that comes later and at a worse price (related to the trend) or you can use to re-fill your still-open position, using it as a re-entry.
You are supposed to act at first signals and average up/down if price goes against you when a new bear/bull signal appears at a better price.
Here it is another element you must consider: price action can deny a reversal stated by volume analysis .
In these cases, you must apply a stop loss in your trade and reverse your position. Don't average up/down your entry.
The reason in this screenshot below:
As you can see, the local downtrend was broken, as it was a simple pullback, previous bull trend was restored and price went up a lot!
The indicator here detected bears rejecting the run-up as much violently as they could, but that was a pullback, nothing more than that: main bull trend was still intact.
Another important advice: don't be greedy, always remember to take profits ! Avoid turning a winning trade into a losing one, which is a common mistake traders do.
That's why I decided to include an RSI based Take Profit algorithm inside:
when background is colored by green (and you can't see any bull signal), then you are in over bought region: start taking profits on you buy/long position or close it or set a trailing stop or a stop loss in profit!
when background is colored by red (and you can't see any bear signal), then you are in over sold region: start taking profits on you sell/short position or close it or set a trailing stop or a stop loss in profit!
when price is in a big overbought or oversold region, then you can see a "ob" label or a "os" label respectively
if you are in a bullish trend (you can see it from the trend colored green background as last signal was a "bull" one), "ob" becomes a clear "tp" - Take Profit advice
if you are in a bearish trend (you can see it from the trend colored red background as last signal was a "bear" one), "os" becomes a clear "tp" - Take Profit advice
Here some examples how you can use the signals produced by the indicator in order to be a successful trader.
I circled with pink signals you as supposed to take, then with a "$" pink backgrounded region where you are supposed to take profits, I finally put an X on failing signals, where you would theoretically have been stopped-out.
GBPUSD, 15m
ETHUSD, 1h
TSLA, 5m
BTCUSD, 15m
XAGUSD, 1h
EURUSD, 15m
SPX500, 1h
ETHUSD, 1D
ETHBTC, 6h
This is a premium indicator , so send me a private message in order to get access to this script.
Machine Learning / Longs [Experimental]Hello Traders/Programmers,
For long time I thought that if it's possible to make a script that has own memory and criterias in Pine. it would learn and find patterns as images according to given criterias. after we have arrays of strings, lines, labels I tried and made this experimental script. The script works only for Long positions.
Now lets look at how it works:
On each candle it creates an image of last 8 candles. before the image is created it finds highest/lowest levels of 8 candles, and creates a string with the lengths 64 (8 * 8). and for each square, it checks if it contains wick, green or red body, green or red body with wicks. see the following picture:
Each square gets the value:
0: nothing in it
1: only wick in it
2: only red body in it
3. only green body in it
4: red body and wick in it
5: green body and wick in it
And then it checks if price went up equal or higher than user-defined profit. if yes then it adds the image to the memory/array. and I call this part as Learning Part.
what I mean by image is:
if there is 1 or more element in the memory, it creates image for current 8 candles and checks the memory if there is a similar images. If the image has similarity higher than user-defined similarty level then if show the label "Matched" and similarity rate and the image in the memory. if it find any with the similarity rate is equal/greater than user-defined level then it stop searching more.
As an example matched image:
and then price increased and you got the profit :)
Options:
Period: if there is possible profit higher than user-defined minimum profit in that period, it checks the images from 2. to X. bars.
Min Profit: you need to set the minimum expected profit accordingly. for example in 1m chart don't enter %10 as min profit :)
Similarity Rate: as told above, you can set minimum similarity rate, higher similarity rate means better results but if you set higher rates, number of images will decrease. set it wisely :)
Max Memory Size: you can set number of images (that gives the profit equal/higher than you set) to be saved that in memory
Change Bar Color: optionally it can change bar colors if current image is found in the memory
Current version of the script doesn't check if the price reach the minimum profit target, so no statistics.
This is completely experimental work and I made it for fun. No one or no script can predict the future. and you should not try to predict the future.
P.S. it starts searching on last bar, it doesn't check historical bars. if you want you should check it in replay mode :)
if you get calculation time out error then hide/unhide the script. ;)
Enjoy!
Fibonacci-Trading-Indikator_3Daily (weekly, monthly) profits with the Fibonacci trading indicator_3
Quotes move in Fibonacci ratios in liquid markets. With this indicator you receive information for daily trades or for position trades based on a week or on a monthly basis, in which area you should ideally enter the market and where the minimum achievable price target is. This price target is 61.8% of yesterday's trading range, or the trading range of the previous week, or the trading range of the previous month, depending on the time frame for which the indicator should calculate the minimum achievable high / low. This is also where you realize your profit.
For this calculation, the following entries must be made in the properties window of the indicator:
• Preselection uptrend / downtrend.
• Time frame (day, week, ...) of the price bar for the possible high / low to be determined.
• Trading range of the previous day, or the previous week, or the previous month.
• Current lowest low of the selected time frame when trading has started and prices are rising.
• Current highest high of the selected time frame when trading has started and prices are falling.
Important areas for trading are:
• The entry range 0% - 23.6% for long or short.
• The target price level 61.8%.
Choose a suitable time frame to detect the direction of movement while the quotes are still moving in the entry area. The camelback indicator can be of great help. Also test the resolution setting of the camelback indicator. With a resolution of 1 hour in the 6 or 12 minute chart, you get a perspective for the broader direction. Movement patterns of corrections or consolidations, if they last more than a day or a week, also give clues to the coming direction of movement for the trade. So look back to see what happened yesterday, a week ago, or a month ago. Pay attention to the market anatomy, find out how the market works, count the price bars in consolidations and trends.
After entering the values the indicator will show the Fibonacci expansion price levels for the possible high or low for the selected time frame. Buy / sell within the entry range between 0% and 23.6% as the market moves towards the last long / or short entry point. This is the course range up to the 23.6% course level. The 61.8% price level is the minimum expected price target. We assume that the current bar will reach at least 61.8% of the trading range of the previous day, week or month. Depending on the set time frame. You should therefore realize the profits you have made with 50% of the position when the prices have reached the 61.8% level. With a suitable trailing stop you can be stopped with the rest of the position, but do not risk more than 50% of the profits.
With the quarter or year preselection and the corresponding entries, the minimum expected quarterly high / quarterly low or annual high / annual low can be determined.
The Fibonacci price levels can be shown and hidden. In the chart click on the gear wheel for “Chart Settings”. In the “Scaling” menu, the price levels can be displayed with the preselection “Label for indicator names” and “Label for last indicator value”. Slide the chart to the right to find possible support and resistance at the price levels that could provide confirmation of the target.
In the event of input errors or missing entries for a time frame, the indicator is hidden.
Pay attention to your trade management to avoid losses.
The new Fibonacci Trading Indicator_3 has the following additions and changes:
Area code for the quarter time frame has been added.
The entry area received a 23.6% and a 50% subdivision. Two envelope lines above the 23.6% entry level in the case of an upward trend and below the 23.6% entry level in the case of a downtrend, with a width of 23.6% and 14.6% of the entry level, are intended to indicate that the closing price is higher the quotations have broken out of the entry-level area.
A volatility stop for upward and downward trends can be activated.
A factor is added to the fluctuation range of each price bar for the stop. Then a moving average is calculated with an adjustable period. The period setting should be set between 5 and 10. The result can be smoothed adjustable.
Presetting:
Periods = 10
Factor = 1.4
Smoothing = 7
With the assumption that the market entry in an upward trend occurs when the prices break out above a bar high, the result of the stop calculation is subtracted from the bar high. In the case of a downward trend, the result of the stop calculation is added to the price bar low.
When entering the market, set the factor to 2.4. If inside bars follow a trend movement, the stop should be brought closer. Try the factor setting 0.4 or less. The smallest adjustable factor is 0.1.
For the entry into an established trend, as described in an idea contribution by me, there are two switchable moving averages. The application for the (MA_H) takes place on high and for the (MA_L) adjustable on high, low, shot, h + 1/2 etc. Period and offset (shift) are adjustable. With this idea, the entry into the market occurs between a 618% correction (the Fibonacci entry point) and the DEP (average entry point). The DEP in this case is the MA_H with period = 4 and an offset = 1 in the case of a downward trend, or the MA_L with the same setting and application to lows in an upward trend.
Also test the MA_L in trends with the settings (period, offset) 3.3 or 5, 3 or 7.5 and applying it to closing prices for a close encompassing of the highs / lows.
Tägliche (wöchentliche, monatliche) Gewinne mit dem Fibonacci-Trading Indikator_3
Kursnotierungen bewegen sich in liquiden Märkten in Fibonacci-Verhältnisse. Mit diesem Indikator erhalten Sie für Tagesgeschäfte, oder für Positionstrades auf Basis einer Woche, oder auf Basis eines Monats Informationen, in welchem Bereich Sie idealerweise in den Markt einsteigen sollten und wo das mindeste erreichbare Kursziel liegt. Dieses Kursziel liegt bei 61,8% der gestrigen Handelspanne, oder der Handelspanne der Vorwoche, oder der Handelspanne des Vormonats, also abhängig davon für welchen Zeitrahmen der Indikator das mindeste erreichbare Hoch/Tief berechnen soll. Dort realisieren Sie auch Ihren Gewinn.
Für diese Berechnung sind folgende Eingaben im Eigenschaftenfenster des Indikators einzustellen:
• Vorwahl Aufwärtstrend/ Abwärtstrend.
• Zeitrahmen (Tag, Woche, …) des Kursbalkens für das zu ermittelnde mögliche Hoch/ Tief.
• Handelspanne des vorherigen Tages, oder der vorherigen Woche, oder des vorherigen Monats.
• Aktuell tiefstes Tief des vorgewählten Zeitrahmens, wenn der Handel begonnen hat und die Notierungen steigen.
• Aktuell höchstes Hoch des vorgewählten Zeitrahmens, wenn der Handel begonnen hat und die Notierungen fallen.
Wichtige Bereiche für das Trading sind:
• Der Einstiegsbereich 0% - 23,6% für long oder short.
• Der Kursziellevel 61,8%.
Wählen Sie für die Erkennung der Bewegungsrichtung einen geeigneten Zeitrahmen, während sich die Notierungen noch im Einstiegsbereich bewegen. Der Camelback-Indikator kann eine gute Hilfe sein. Testen Sie auch die Auflösung-Einstellung des Camelback-Indikators. Mit der Auflösung 1 Stunde Im 6- oder 12 Minuten-Chart erhalten Sie einen Blickwinkel für die große Richtung. Auch Bewegungsmuster von Korrekturen oder Konsolidierungen, wenn sie mehr als einen Tag oder eine Woche andauern geben Hinweise auf die kommende Bewegungsrichtung für den Trade. Schauen Sie also zurück um zu prüfen, was sich gestern, vor einer Woche oder vor einem Monat abgespielt hat. Achten sie auf die Marktanatomie, finden Sie heraus wie der Markt funktioniert, zählen Sie Kursstäbe in Konsolidierungen und Trends.
Nach Eingabe der Werte zeigt der Indikator die Fibonacci-Ausweitungskurslevels für das mögliche Hoch oder Tief für den ausgewählten Zeitrahmen. Kaufen/ verkaufen Sie innerhalb des Einstiegsbereichs zwischen 0% und 23,6%, während sich der Markt in Richtung des letzten long-/ oder short-Einstiegspunktes bewegt. Das ist der Kursbereich bis zum 23,6%- Kurslevel. Der 61,8%-Kurslevel ist das mindeste erwartbare Kursziel. Wir gehen davon aus, dass der aktuelle Kursbalken mindestens 61,8% der Handelsspanne des vorherigen Tages, der vorherigen Woche oder des vorherigen Monats erreichen wird. Abhängig vom eingestellten Zeitrahmen. Realisieren Sie deshalb die angelaufenen Gewinne mit 50% der Position, wenn die Notierungen den 61,8% - Level erreicht haben. Mit einem geeigneten Trailing-Stopp lassen Sie sich mit der restlichen Position ausstoppen, riskieren Sie dafür aber nicht mehr als 50 % der angelaufenen Gewinne.
Mit der Vorwahl Quartal oder Jahr und den entsprechenden Eingaben kann auch das mindeste erwartbare Quartalshoch/ Quartalstief bzw. Jahreshoch/ Jahrestief ermittelt werden.
Die Fibonacci-Kurslevels lassen sich ein- und ausblenden. Klicken Sie im Chart auf das Zahnrad für „Chart Einstellungen“. Im Menü „Skalierungen“ kann mit der Vorwahl „Label für Indikatornahmen“ und „Label für letzten Indikatorwert“ die Kurslevels angezeigt werden. Schieben Sie den Chart nach rechts um mögliche Unterstützungen und Widerstände an den Kurslevels zu finden, die Bestätigung für das Ziel geben könnten.
Bei Eingabefehlern oder fehlenden Eingaben zu einem Zeitrahmen wird der Indikator ausgeblendet.
Achten Sie zur Vermeidung von Verlusten auf ihr Handelsmanagement.
Der neue Fibonacci-Trading-Indikator_3 besitz folgende Zusätze und Änderungen:
Vorwahl für den Zeitrahmen Quartal wurde hinzugefügt.
Der Einstiegsbereich erhielt eine 23,6% und eine 50% Unterteilung. Zwei Umschlagslinien über dem 23,6%-Einstiegslevel bei einem Aufwärtstrend, bzw. unter dem 23,6%-Einstiegslevel bei einem Abwärtstrend, mit der Breite 23,6% und 14,6% vom Einstiegsbereich, sollen bei höherem Schlusskurs signalisieren, dass die Notierungen aus dem Einstiegsbereich ausgebrochen sind.
Ein Volatilitätsstopp jeweils für Aufwärts- und Abwärtstrend kann zugeschaltet werden.
Für den Stopp wird die Schwankungsbreite jedes Kursbalkens wird mit einem Faktor beaufschlagt. Danach erfolgt die Berechnung eines gleitenden Durchschnitts mit einstellbarer Periode. Die Periodeneinstellung sollte zwischen 5 und 10 eingestellt werden. Das Ergebnis kann einstellbar geglättet werden.
Voreinstellung:
Perioden = 10
Faktor = 1,4
Glättung = 7
Mit der Annahme, dass der Markteinstieg in einem Aufwärtstrend bei Ausbruch der Notierungen über ein Kursbalkenhoch erfolgt, wird das Ergebnis der Stoppberechnung vom Kursbalkenhoch subtrahiert. Bei einem Abwärtstrend wird das Ergebnis der Stoppberechnung zum Kursbalkentief addiert.
Stellen Sie bei Markteintritt den Faktor auf 2,4. Folgen nach einer Trendbewegung Innenstäbe sollte der Stopp näher herangeführt werden. Probieren Sie die Faktoreinstellung 0,4 oder kleiner. Der kleinste einstellbare Faktor ist 0,1.
Für den Einstieg in einen etablierten Trend, wie in einem Ideenbeitrag von mir beschrieben, gibt es zwei zuschaltbare gleitende Durchschnitte. Die Anwendung für den (MA_H) erfolgt auf Hochs und für den (MA_L) einstellbar auf Hoch, Tief, Schuss, h+l/2 usw.. Periode und Offset (Verschiebung) sind einstellbar. Bei dieser Idee erfolgt der Einstieg in den Markt zwischen einer 618%-Korrektur (dem Fibonacci-Einstiegspunkt) und dem DEP (Durchschnittlicher Einstiegspunkt). Der DEP ist in diesem Fall der MA_H mit Periode = 4 und einem Offset = 1, bei einem Abwärtstrend, oder der MA_L mit identischer Einstellung und Anwendung auf Tiefs in einem Aufwärtstrend.
Testen Sie den MA_L auch in Trends mit den Einstellungen (Periode, Offset) 3,3 oder 5, 3 oder 7,5 und Anwendung auf Schlusskurse für eine enge Umfassung der Hochs/ Tiefs.
[NLX-L2] QQE++- NLX Modular Trading Framework -
I've written this QQE Indicator from scratch and the functionality is self-explaining.
The Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) indicator is computed based on a combination of smoothed RSI and the average true range.
- Getting Started -
1. Add this QQE Indicator to your Chart
2. Add the Backtest module to your Chart
3. Select the QQE Indicator in the Backtest Settings
- Alerts for Automated Trading -
This module is coming soon and you will be able to create alerts for the QQE Signals as part of my framework.
See my signature below for more information.
- Note -
The high win-rate in the backtest is the result of taking partial take-profits in between trade entry and exit.
Don't be fooled, it's impossible to achieve 80% profitable trades but due to take-profit orders 80% of the trades at least secure some profit.
Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index by DGTPsychology of a Market Cycle - Where are we in the cycle?
Before proceeding with the question "where", let's first have a quick look at "What is market psychology?"
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions. Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets and that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles - which is also dynamic.
Stages of Investor Emotions:
* Optimism – A positive outlook encourages us about the future, leading us to buy stocks.
* Excitement – Having seen some of our initial ideas work, we begin considering what our market success could allow us to accomplish.
* Thrill – At this point we investors cannot believe our success and begin to comment on how smart we are.
* Euphoria – This marks the point of maximum financial risk. Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and expect every trade to become profitable.
* Anxiety – For the first time the market moves against us. Having never stared at unrealized losses, we tell ourselves we are long-term investors and that all our ideas will eventually work.
* Denial – When markets have not rebounded, yet we do not know how to respond, we begin denying either that we made poor choices or that things will not improve shortly.
* Fear – The market realities become confusing. We believe the stocks we own will never move in our favor.
* Desperation – Not knowing how to act, we grasp at any idea that will allow us to get back to breakeven.
* Panic – Having exhausted all ideas, we are at a loss for what to do next.
* Capitulation – Deciding our portfolio will never increase again, we sell all our stocks to avoid any future losses.
* Despondency – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. This often marks the moment of greatest financial opportunity.
* Depression – Not knowing how we could be so foolish, we are left trying to understand our actions.
* Hope – Eventually we return to the realization that markets move in cycles, and we begin looking for our next opportunity.
* Relief – Having bought a stock that turned profitable, we renew our faith that there is a future in investing.
It's hard to predict with certainty where we exactly are in the market cycle, we can only make an educated guess as to the rough stage based on data available. And here comes the study "Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index"
Factors taken into account in this study include:
1-Price Momentum : Price Divergence/Convergence versus its Slow Moving Average
2-Strenght : Rate of Return (RoR) also called Return on Investment (ROI) is a performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment, net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength
3-Money Flow : Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. CMF can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore trading opportunities. CMF calculations is based on Accumulation/Distribution
4-Market Volatility : CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. It is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions
5-Safe Haven Demand : in this study GOLD demand is assumed
What to look for :
*Fear and Greed Index as explained above,
*Divergencies
Tool tip of the label displayed provides details of references
Conclusion:
As investors, we always get caught up in the day to day price movements, and lose sight of the bigger picture. The biggest crashes happen not when investors are cautious and fearful, it's when they're euphoric and expecting financial instruments to continue going higher. So as we continue investing, don’t forget to stop and ask yourself, where in the chart do you think we are right now? The Market Psychology Cycle shines light on how emotions evolve, fear and greed index can come in handy, provided that it is not the only tool used to make investment decisions. It is easy to look back at market cycles and recognize how the overall psychology changed. Analyzing previous data makes it obvious what actions and decisions would have been the most profitable. However, it is much harder to understand how the market is changing as it goes - and even harder to predict what comes next. Many investors use technical analysis (TA) to attempt to anticipate where the market is likely to go. Investors are advised to keep tabs on fear for potential buying the dips opportunities and view periods of greed as a potential indicator that financial instruments might be overvalued.
Warren Buffett's quote, buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
