Dynamic Support and Resistance Pivot Strategy The Dynamic Support and Resistance Pivot Strategy is a flexible and adaptive tool designed to identify short-term support and resistance levels using the concept of price pivots.
### Key Elements of the Strategy
1. Pivot points as support and resistance levels
Pivots are significant turning points on the price chart, often marking local highs and lows where the price has reversed direction. A pivot high occurs when the price forms a local peak, while a pivot low occurs when the price forms a local trough. When a new pivot high is formed, it creates a resistance level. Conversely, when a new pivot low is formed, it creates a support level.
The strategy continuously updates these levels as new pivots are detected, ensuring they remain relevant to the current market conditions. By identifying these price levels, the strategy dynamically adjusts to market conditions, allowing it to adapt to both trending and ranging markets, since it has a long target and can perform reversal operations.
2. Entry Criteria
- Buy (Long): A long position is triggered when the price is near the support level and then crosses it from below to above. This suggests that the price has found support and may start moving upwards.
- Sell (Short): A short position is triggered when the price is near the resistance level and then crosses it from above to below. This indicates that the price may be reversing and moving downward.
3. Support/Resistance distance (%)
- This parameter establishes a percentage range around the identified support and resistance level. For example, if the Support Resistance Distance is 0.4% (default), the closing price must be within a range of 0.4% above support or below the resistance to be considered "close" and trigger a trade.
4. Exit criteria
- Take profit = 27 %
- Stop loss = 10 %
- Reversal if a new entry point is identified in the opposite direction
5. No Repainting
- The Dynamic Support and Resistance Pivot Strategy is not subject to repainting.
6. Position Sizing by Equity and risk management
- This strategy has a default configuration to operate with 35% of the equity. The stop loss is set to 10% from the entry price. This way, the strategy is putting at risk about 10% of 35% of equity, that is, around 3.5% of equity for each trade. The percentage of equity and stop loss can be adjusted by the user according to their risk management.
7. Backtest results
- This strategy was subjected to backtest and operations in replay mode on **1000000MOGUSDT.P**, with the inclusion of transaction fees at 0.12% and slipagge of 5 ticks, and the past results have shown consistent profitability. Past results are no guarantee of future results. The strategy's backtest results may even be due to overfitting with past data.
8. Chart Visualization
- Support and resistance levels are displayed as green (support) and red (resistance) lines.
- Pivot prices are displayed as green (pivot low) and red (pivot high) labels.
In this image above, the Support/Resistance distance (%) parameter was set to 0.8.
9. Default Configuration
Chart Timeframe: 1h
Pivot Lengh: 2
Support/Resistance distance (%): 0.4*
Stop Loss: 10 %
Take Profit: 27 %
* This parameter can alternatively be set to 0.8.
10. Alternative Configuration
Chart Timeframe: 20 min
Pivot Lengh: 4
Support/Resistance distance (%): 0.1
Stop Loss: 10 %
Take Profit: 25 %
BYBIT:1000000MOGUSDT.P
In den Scripts nach "ha溢价率" suchen
Trident FinderIntroduction to the Trident Finder
The Trident Finder is a Pine Script indicator that identifies unique bullish and bearish patterns called Tridents. These patterns are based on specific relationships between consecutive candles, combined with a simple moving average (SMA) filter for added precision. By spotting these patterns, traders can potentially identify high-probability reversal points or trend continuations.
Core Logic
The indicator identifies two patterns:
Bullish Trident
A bullish Trident forms when:
Candle (two candles back) has its High-Low range entirely above Candle (the preceding candle).
Candle (the current candle) has its Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) above the Low of Candle .
Candle closes higher than it opens and higher than Candle ’s close.
Candle closes below the SMA, indicating a potential upward breakout against the trend.
Bearish Trident
A bearish Trident forms when:
Candle has its High-Low range entirely below Candle .
Candle has its OHLC below the High of Candle .
Candle closes lower than it opens and lower than Candle ’s close.
Candle closes above the SMA, indicating a potential downward breakout against the trend.
Visual Representation
Bullish Tridents are marked with green "Up" labels below the candle.
Bearish Tridents are marked with red "Down" labels above the candle.
The SMA is plotted as a maroon line to serve as a filter for the Trident patterns.
Enigma Unlocked 2.0Description for "Enigma Unlocked 2.0" Pine Script Indicator
Overview
Enigma Unlocked 2.0 is an advanced and highly customizable indicator designed to deliver actionable buy and sell signals by leveraging precise candlestick logic during specific market transitions. This indicator is built for flexibility, helping traders identify high-probability trade setups during key trading periods, specifically the transitions between the Asian Kill Zone and London Kill Zone as well as the London Kill Zone and New York Kill Zone on the 30-minute timeframe.
By combining Enigma Unlocked 2.0 with the ICT Killzones & Pivots indicator, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the timing and location of these transitions. Waiting for signals during these defined kill zones increases the likelihood of finding high-probability trade setups.
How to Use
Follow the Kill Zone Transitions:
Use the ICT Killzones & Pivots indicator to clearly visualize the boundaries of the Asian, London, and New York kill zones.
Focus on the signals generated by Enigma Unlocked 2.0 that align with these kill zone transitions.
Plotting Entries and Targets with Gann Box:
For Buy Signals:
Use the Gann Box tool to mark the high and low of the signal candle.
Ensure your Gann Box settings include only the 50%, 0%, and 100% levels.
Your entry zone lies between the 50% and 100% levels (discount zone). This is where buy trades are expected to offer an optimal risk-reward ratio.
For Sell Signals:
Similarly, plot the Gann Box on the high and low of the signal candle.
The 50% to 100% zone acts as the premium area for sell trades.
Setting Stop Loss and Targets:
To identify a safe stop loss, split the 50% zone of the Gann Box using another Gann Box.
Draw the secondary Gann Box from 50% to 100% of the initial box, then extend it to double the height.
For sell trades, place the stop loss above the extended 100% level.
For buy trades, place the stop loss below the extended 100% level.
Aim for a minimum of 1:1 risk-to-reward to ensure optimal trade management.
How It Works
Buy Logic:
Buy Logic 1: Detects a bullish candle (close > open) that:
Closes above its midpoint (50% of the candle body).
Has a low lower than the previous candle's low.
Buy Logic 2: Identifies a bearish candle (close < open) that:
Closes above its midpoint (50% of the candle body).
Has a low lower than the previous candle's low.
Sell Logic:
Sell Logic 1: Detects a bearish candle (close < open) that:
Closes below its midpoint (50% of the candle body).
Has a high higher than the previous candle's high.
Sell Logic 2: Identifies a bullish candle (close > open) that:
Closes below its midpoint (50% of the candle body).
Has a high higher than the previous candle's high.
Real-Time Alerts and Visual Cues:
Green triangles below candles indicate buy opportunities.
Red triangles above candles indicate sell opportunities.
Built-in alert conditions notify you of signals in real-time, so you never miss a trading opportunity.
Why Use Enigma Unlocked 2.0?
Precision: Advanced candlestick logic ensures that signals are generated only under optimal conditions.
Session-Based Filtering: Signals occur exclusively during the most active market sessions (kill zones), improving trade quality.
Visualization: Simple yet effective tools like Gann Box integration and clear visual signals make this indicator easy to use and highly effective.
Real-Time Alerts: Stay informed of potential trades even when you're away from your screen.
Enigma Unlocked 2.0 empowers traders to harness the power of candlestick analysis and session-based strategies for disciplined and effective trading. Pair this with a solid understanding of risk management and kill zones to achieve consistent results in your trading journey.
DCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger BandDCA Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Band
The Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands is a sophisticated trading strategy that combines the principles of DCA, mean reversion, and technical analysis using Bollinger Bands. This strategy aims to capitalize on market corrections by systematically entering positions during periods of price pullbacks and reversion to the mean.
Key Concepts and Principles
1. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
DCA is an investment strategy that involves regularly purchasing a fixed dollar amount of an asset, regardless of its price. The idea behind DCA is that by spreading out investments over time, the impact of market volatility is reduced, and investors can avoid making large investments at inopportune times. The strategy reduces the risk of buying all at once during a market high and can smooth out the cost of purchasing assets over time.
In the context of this strategy, the Investment Amount (USD) is set by the user and represents the amount of capital to be invested in each buy order. The strategy executes buy orders whenever the price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, which suggests a potential market correction or pullback. This is an effective way to average the entry price and avoid the emotional pitfalls of trying to time the market perfectly.
2. Mean Reversion
Mean reversion is a concept that suggests prices will tend to return to their historical average or mean over time. In this strategy, mean reversion is implemented using the Bollinger Bands, which are based on a moving average and standard deviation. The lower band is considered a potential buy signal when the price crosses below it, indicating that the asset has become oversold or underpriced relative to its historical average. This triggers the DCA buy order.
Mean reversion strategies are popular because they exploit the natural tendency of prices to revert to their mean after experiencing extreme deviations, such as during market corrections or panic selling.
3. Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that consists of three lines:
Middle Band: The moving average, usually a 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) in this strategy. This serves as the "mean" or baseline.
Upper Band: The middle band plus a certain number of standard deviations (multiplier). The upper band is used to identify overbought conditions.
Lower Band: The middle band minus a certain number of standard deviations (multiplier). The lower band is used to identify oversold conditions.
In this strategy, the Bollinger Bands are used to identify potential entry points for DCA trades. When the price crosses below the lower band, this is seen as a potential opportunity for mean reversion, suggesting that the asset may be oversold and could reverse back toward the middle band (the EMA). Conversely, when the price crosses above the upper band, it indicates overbought conditions and signals potential market exhaustion.
4. Time-Based Entry and Exit
The strategy has specific entry and exit points defined by time parameters:
Open Date: The date when the strategy begins opening positions.
Close Date: The date when all positions are closed.
This time-bound approach ensures that the strategy is active only during a specified window, which can be useful for testing specific market conditions or focusing on a particular time frame.
5. Position Sizing
Position sizing is determined by the Investment Amount (USD), which is the fixed amount to be invested in each buy order. The quantity of the asset to be purchased is calculated by dividing the investment amount by the current price of the asset (investment_amount / close). This ensures that the amount invested remains constant despite fluctuations in the asset's price.
6. Closing All Positions
The strategy includes an exit rule that closes all positions once the specified close date is reached. This allows for controlled exits and limits the exposure to market fluctuations beyond the strategy's timeframe.
7. Background Color Based on Price Relative to Bollinger Bands
The script uses the background color of the chart to provide visual feedback about the price's relationship with the Bollinger Bands:
Red background indicates the price is above the upper band, signaling overbought conditions.
Green background indicates the price is below the lower band, signaling oversold conditions.
This provides an easy-to-interpret visual cue for traders to assess the current market environment.
Postscript: Configuring Initial Capital for Backtesting
To ensure the backtest results align with the actual investment scenario, users must adjust the Initial Capital in the TradingView strategy properties. This is done by calculating the Initial Capital as the product of the Total Closed Trades and the Investment Amount (USD). For instance:
If the user is investing 100 USD per trade and has 10 closed trades, the Initial Capital should be set to 1,000 USD.
Similarly, if the user is investing 200 USD per trade and has 24 closed trades, the Initial Capital should be set to 4,800 USD.
This adjustment ensures that the backtesting results reflect the actual capital deployed in the strategy and provides an accurate representation of potential gains and losses.
Conclusion
The DCA strategy with Mean Reversion and Bollinger Bands is a systematic approach to investing that leverages the power of regular investments and technical analysis to reduce market timing risks. By combining DCA with the insights offered by Bollinger Bands and mean reversion, this strategy offers a structured way to navigate volatile markets while targeting favorable entry points. The clear entry and exit rules, coupled with time-based constraints, make it a robust and disciplined approach to long-term investing.
Moment-Based Adaptive DetectionMBAD (Moment-Based Adaptive Detection) : a method applicable to a wide range of purposes, like outlier or novelty detection, that requires building a sensible interval/set of thresholds. Unlike other methods that are static and rely on optimizations that inevitably lead to underfitting/overfitting, it dynamically adapts to your data distribution without any optimizations, MLE, or stuff, and provides a set of data-driven adaptive thresholds, based on closed-form solution with O(n) algo complexity.
1.5 years ago, when I was still living in Versailles at my friend's house not knowing what was gonna happen in my life tomorrow, I made a damn right decision not to give up on one idea and to actually R&D it and see what’s up. It allowed me to create this one.
The Method Explained
I’ve been wandering about z-values, why exactly 6 sigmas, why 95%? Who decided that? Why would you supersede your opinion on data? Based on what? Your ego?
Then I consciously noticed a couple of things:
1) In control theory & anomaly detection, the popular threshold is 3 sigmas (yet nobody can firmly say why xD). If your data is Laplace, 3 sigmas is not enough; you’re gonna catch too many values, so it needs a higher sigma.
2) Yet strangely, the normal distribution has kurtosis of 3, and 6 for Laplace.
3) Kurtosis is a standardized moment, a moment scaled by stdev, so it means "X amount of something measured in stdevs."
4) You generate synthetic data, you check on real data (market data in my case, I am a quant after all), and you see on both that:
lower extension = mean - standard deviation * kurtosis ≈ data minimum
upper extension = mean + standard deviation * kurtosis ≈ data maximum
Why not simply use max/min?
- Lower info gain: We're not using all info available in all data points to estimate max/min; we just pick the current higher and lower values. Lol, it’s the same as dropping exponential smoothing with alpha = 0 on stationary data & calling it a day.
You can’t update the estimates of min and max when new data arrives containing info about the matter. All you can do is just extend min and max horizontally, so you're not using new info arriving inside new data.
- Mixing order and non-order statistics is a bad idea; we're losing integrity and coherence. That's why I don't like the Hurst exponent btw (and yes, I came up with better metrics of my own).
- Max & min are not even true order statistics, unlike a percentile (finding which requires sorting, which requires multiple passes over your data). To find min or max, you just need to do one traversal over your data. Then with or without any weighting, 100th percentile will equal max. So unlike a weighted percentile, you can’t do weighted max. Then while you can always check max and min of a geometric shape, now try to calculate the 56th percentile of a pentagram hehe.
TL;DR max & min are rather topological characteristics of data, just as the difference between starting and ending points. Not much to do with statistics.
Now the second part of the ballet is to work with data asymmetry:
1) Skewness is also scaled by stdev -> so it must represent a shift from the data midrange measured in stdevs -> given asymmetric data, we can include this info in our models. Unlike kurtosis, skewness has a sign, so we add it to both thresholds:
lower extension = mean - standard deviation * kurtosis + standard deviation * skewness
upper extension = mean + standard deviation * kurtosis + standard deviation * skewness
2) Now our method will work with skewed data as well, omg, ain’t it cool?
3) Hold up, but what about 5th and 6th moments (hyperskewness & hyperkurtosis)? They should represent something meaningful as well.
4) Perhaps if extensions represent current estimated extremums, what goes beyond? Limits, beyond which we expect data not to be able to pass given the current underlying process generating the data?
When you extend this logic to higher-order moments, i.e., hyperskewness & hyperkurtosis (5th and 6th moments), they measure asymmetry and shape of distribution tails, not its core as previous moments -> makes no sense to mix 4th and 3rd moments (skewness and kurtosis) with 5th & 6th, so we get:
lower limit = mean - standard deviation * hyperkurtosis + standard deviation * hyperskewness
upper limit = mean + standard deviation * hyperkurtosis + standard deviation * hyperskewness
While extensions model your data’s natural extremums based on current info residing in the data without relying on order statistics, limits model your data's maximum possible and minimum possible values based on current info residing in your data. If a new data point trespasses limits, it means that a significant change in the data-generating process has happened, for sure, not probably—a confirmed structural break.
And finally we use time and volume weighting to include order & process intensity information in our model.
I can't stress it enough: despite the popularity of these non-weighted methods applied in mainstream open-access time series modeling, it doesn’t make ANY sense to use non-weighted calculations on time series data . Time = sequence, it matters. If you reverse your time series horizontally, your means, percentiles, whatever, will stay the same. Basically, your calculations will give the same results on different data. When you do it, you disregard the order of data that does have order naturally. Does it make any sense to you? It also concerns regressions applied on time series as well, because even despite the slope being opposite on your reversed data, the centroid (through which your regression line always comes through) will be the same. It also might concern Fourier (yes, you can do weighted Fourier) and even MA and AR models—might, because I ain’t researched it extensively yet.
I still can’t believe it’s nowhere online in open access. No chance I’m the first one who got it. It’s literally in front of everyone’s eyes for centuries—why no one tells about it?
How to use
That’s easy: can be applied to any, even non-stationary and/or heteroscedastic time series to automatically detect novelties, outliers, anomalies, structural breaks, etc. In terms of quant trading, you can try using extensions for mean reversion trades and limits for emergency exits, for example. The market-making application is kinda obvious as well.
The only parameter the model has is length, and it should NOT be optimized but picked consciously based on the process/system you’re applying it to and based on the task. However, this part is not about sharing info & an open-access instrument with the world. This is about using dem instruments to do actual business, and we can’t talk about it.
∞
Mean Price
^^ Plotting switched to Line.
This method of financial time series (aka bars) downsampling is literally, naturally, and thankfully the best you can do in terms of maximizing info gain. You can finally chill and feed it to your studies & eyes, and probably use nothing else anymore.
(HL2 and occ3 also have use cases, but other aggregation methods? Not really, even if they do, the use cases are ‘very’ specific). Tho in order to understand why, you gotta read the following wall, or just believe me telling you, ‘I put it on my momma’.
The true story about trading volumes and why this is all a big misdirection
Actually, you don’t need to be a quant to get there. All you gotta do is stop blindly following other people’s contextual (at best) solutions, eg OC2 aggregation xD, and start using your own brain to figure things out.
Every individual trade (basically an imprint on 1D price space that emerges when market orders hit the order book) has several features like: price, time, volume, AND direction (Up if a market buy order hits the asks, Down if a market sell order hits the bids). Now, the last two features—volume and direction—can be effectively combined into one (by multiplying volume by 1 or -1), and this is probably how every order matching engine should output data. If we’re not considering size/direction, we’re leaving data behind. Moreover, trades aren’t just one-price dots all the time. One trade can consume liquidity on several levels of the order book, so a single trade can be several ticks big on the price axis.
You may think now that there are no zero-volume ticks. Well, yes and no. It depends on how you design an exchange and whether you allow intra-spread trades/mid-spread trades (now try to Google it). Intra-spread trades could happen if implemented when a matching engine receives both buy and sell orders at the same microsecond period. This way, you can match the orders with each other at a better price for both parties without even hitting the book and consuming liquidity. Also, if orders have different sizes, the remaining part of the bigger order can be sent to the order book. Basically, this type of trade can be treated as an OTC trade, having zero volume because we never actually hit the book—there’s no imprint. Another reason why it makes sense is when we think about volume as an impact or imbalance act, and how the medium (order book in our case) responds to it, providing information. OTC and mid-spread trades are not aggressive sells or buys; they’re neutral ticks, so to say. However huge they are, sometimes many blocks on NYSE, they don’t move the price because there’s no impact on the medium (again, which is the order book)—they’re not providing information.
... Now, we need to aggregate these trades into, let’s say, 1-hour bars (remember that a trade can have either positive or negative volume). We either don’t want to do it, or we don’t have this kind of information. What we can do is take already aggregated OHLC bars and extract all the info from them. Given the market is fractal, bars & trades gotta have the same set of features:
- Highest & lowest ticks (high & low) <- by price;
- First & last ticks (open & close) <- by time;
- Biggest and smallest ticks <- by volume.*
*e.g., in the array ,
2323: biggest trade,
-1212: smallest trade.
Now, in our world, somehow nobody started to care about the biggest and smallest trades and their inclusion in OHLC data, while this is actually natural. It’s the same way as it’s done with high & low and open & close: we choose the minimum and maximum value of a given feature/axis within the aggregation period.
So, we don’t have these 2 values: biggest and smallest ticks. The best we can do is infer them, and given the fact the biggest and smallest ticks can be located with the same probability everywhere, all we can do is predict them in the middle of the bar, both in time and price axes. That’s why you can see two HL2’s in each of the 3 formulas in the code.
So, summed up absolute volumes that you see in almost every trading platform are actually just a derivative metric, something that I call Type 2 time series in my own (proprietary ‘for now’) methods. It doesn’t have much to do with market orders hitting the non-uniform medium (aka order book); it’s more like a statistic. Still wanna use VWAP? Ok, but you gotta understand you’re weighting Type 1 (natural) time series by Type 2 (synthetic) ones.
How to combine all the data in the right way (khmm khhm ‘order’)
Now, since we have 6 values for each bar, let’s see what information we have about them, what we don’t have, and what we can do about it:
- Open and close: we got both when and where (time (order) and price);
- High and low: we got where, but we don’t know when;
- Biggest & smallest trades: we know shit, we infer it the way it was described before.'
By using the location of the close & open prices relative to the high & low prices, we can make educated guesses about whether high or low was made first in a given bar. It’s not perfect, but it’s ultimately all we can do—this is the very last bit of info we can extract from the data we have.
There are 2 methods for inferring volume delta (which I call simply volume) that are presented everywhere, even here on TradingView. Funny thing is, this is actually 2 parts of the 1 method. I wonder how many folks see through it xD. The same method can be used for both inferring volume delta AND making educated guesses whether high or low was made first.
Imagine and/or find the cases on your charts to understand faster:
* Close > open means we have an up bar and probably the volume is positive, and probably high was made later than low.
* Close < open means we have a down bar and probably the volume is negative, and probably low was made later than high.
Now that’s the point when you see that these 2 mentioned methods are actually parts of the 1 method:
If close = open, we still have another clue: distance from open/close pair to high (HC), and distance from open/close pair to low (LC):
* HC < LC, probably high was made later.
* HC > LC, probably low was made later.
And only if close = open and HC = LC, only in this case we have no clue whether high or low was made earlier within a bar. We simply don’t have any more information to even guess. This bar is called a neutral bar.
At this point, we have both time (order) and price info for each of our 6 values. Now, we have to solve another weighted average problem, and that’s it. We’ll weight prices according to the order we’ve guessed. In the neutral bar case, open has a weight of 1, close has a weight of 3, and both high and low have weights of 2 since we can’t infer which one was made first. In all cases, biggest and smallest ticks are modeled with HL2 and weighted like they’re located in the middle of the bar in a time sense.
P.S.: I’ve also included a "robust" method where all the bars are treated like neutral ones. I’ve used it before; obviously, it has lesser info gain -> works a bit worse.
Honest Volatility Grid [Honestcowboy]The Honest Volatility Grid is an attempt at creating a robust grid trading strategy but without standard levels.
Normal grid systems use price levels like 1.01;1.02;1.03;1.04... and place an order at each of these levels. In this program instead we create a grid using keltner channels using a long term moving average.
🟦 IS THIS EVEN USEFUL?
The idea is to have a more fluid style of trading where levels expand and follow price and do not stick to precreated levels. This however also makes each closed trade different instead of using fixed take profit levels. In this strategy a take profit level can even be a loss. It is useful as a strategy because it works in a different way than most strategies, making it a good tool to diversify a portfolio of trading strategies.
🟦 STRATEGY
There are 10 levels below the moving average and 10 above the moving average. For each side of the moving average the strategy uses 1 to 3 orders maximum (3 shorts at top, 3 longs at bottom). For instance you buy at level 2 below moving average and you increase position size when level 6 is reached (a cheaper price) in order to spread risks.
By default the strategy exits all trades when the moving average is reached, this makes it a mean reversion strategy. It is specifically designed for the forex market as these in my experience exhibit a lot of ranging behaviour on all the timeframes below daily.
There is also a stop loss at the outer band by default, in case price moves too far from the mean.
What are the risks?
In case price decides to stay below the moving average and never reaches the outer band one trade can create a very substantial loss, as the bands will keep following price and are not at a fixed level.
Explanation of default parameters
By default the strategy uses a starting capital of 25000$, this is realistic for retail traders.
Lot sizes at each level are set to minimum lot size 0.01, there is no reason for the default to be risky, if you want to risk more or increase equity curve increase the number at your own risk.
Slippage set to 20 points: that's a normal 2 pip slippage you will find on brokers.
Fill limit assumtion 20 points: so it takes 2 pips to confirm a fill, normal forex spread.
Commission is set to 0.00005 per contract: this means that for each contract traded there is a 5$ or whatever base currency pair has as commission. The number is set to 0.00005 because pinescript does not know that 1 contract is 100000 units. So we divide the number by 100000 to get a realistic commission.
The script will also multiply lot size by 100000 because pinescript does not know that lots are 100000 units in forex.
Extra safety limit
Normally the script uses strategy.exit() to exit trades at TP or SL. But because these are created 1 bar after a limit or stop order is filled in pinescript. There are strategy.orders set at the outer boundaries of the script to hedge against that risk. These get deleted bar after the first order is filled. Purely to counteract news bars or huge spikes in price messing up backtest.
🟦 VISUAL GOODIES
I've added a market profile feature to the edge of the grid. This so you can see in which grid zone market has been the most over X bars in the past. Some traders may wish to only turn on the strategy whenever the market profile displays specific characteristics (ranging market for instance).
These simply count how many times a high, low, or close price has been in each zone for X bars in the past. it's these purple boxes at the right side of the chart.
🟦 Script can be fully automated to MT5
There are risk settings in lot sizes or % for alerts and symbol settings provided at the bottom of the indicator. The script will send alert to MT5 broker trying to mimic the execution that happens on tradingview. There are always delays when using a bridge to MT5 broker and there could be errors so be mindful of that. This script sends alerts in format so they can be read by tradingview.to which is a bridge between the platforms.
Use the all alert function calls feature when setting up alerts and make sure you provide the right webhook if you want to use this approach.
Almost every setting in this indicator has a tooltip added to it. So if any setting is not clear hover over the (?) icon on the right of the setting.
Previous Day High and Low Count with Probabilities
Indicator Explanation
This indicator displays the number of days on which the previous day's high or low prices were not reached and calculates probabilities for future price movements based on this information. It stores the high and low values of the last 45 days and checks daily whether these levels were touched. Based on the number of days without touching either the high or the low, the indicator calculates the probability of future price movements in either direction (Up or Down).
The indicator offers customization options for label placement and color on the chart. The counts for the high and low touches, along with the calculated probabilities (in percentages), are displayed as labels on the chart. These labels can be shifted along the X-axis by up to 50 bars and can be customized in color and size. Additionally, the text for the labels can be freely chosen, giving the user improved flexibility and overview.
In summary, this indicator helps to:
- Track how often previous day's high and low levels were not reached.
- Estimate probabilities for future price movements based on this information.
- Customize the chart display for easier interpretation.
Strategy Concept
Probability and Touch Conditions:
A long position is entered only if:
The probability of reaching the high is at least 60%.
The price has not touched the previous day’s high in the last three days.
Similarly, for short positions:
The probability of reaching the low is at least 60%.
The price has not touched the previous day’s low in the last three days.
Incremental Position Size Increase:
On the 3rd consecutive day without a high/low touch and with the probability condition met, an initial position of 0.01 lots is opened.
On the 4th day, an additional position of 0.01 lots is added.
On the 5th day, an extra position of 0.02 lots is opened.
After a two-day pause, the situation is re-evaluated, and if conditions are still met, a 0.04-lot position is considered.
Trend Reversal Detection:
The strategy also includes a simple trend reversal check. If the market shows clear reversal signals, no new positions will be opened.
Adjustments and Risk Management
This strategy can be adjusted by modifying the probability values, the number of days without a high/low touch, and the lot sizes. Additionally, stop-loss and take-profit levels can be added to further control the risk and secure profits.
Strategy Concept
Probability and Touch Conditions:
A long position is entered only if:
The probability of reaching the high is at least 60%.
The price has not touched the previous day’s high in the last three days.
Similarly, for short positions:
The probability of reaching the low is at least 60%.
The price has not touched the previous day’s low in the last three days.
Incremental Position Size Increase:
On the 3rd consecutive day without a high/low touch and with the probability condition met, an initial position of 0.01 lots is opened.
On the 4th day, an additional position of 0.01 lots is added.
On the 5th day, an extra position of 0.02 lots is opened.
After a two-day pause, the situation is re-evaluated, and if conditions are still met, a 0.04-lot position is considered.
Trend Reversal Detection:
The strategy also includes a simple trend reversal check. If the market shows clear reversal signals, no new positions will be opened.
Risk Disclaimer
The author of this strategy does not assume any liability for potential losses or gains that may arise from the use of this strategy. Trading involves significant risk, and it is important to only trade with capital that you can afford to lose. The strategy presented is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Market structureHi all!
This script shows you the market structure. You can choose to show internal market structure (with pivots of a default length of 5) and swing market structure (with pivots of a default length of 50). For these two trends it will show you:
• Break of structure (BOS)
• Change of character (CHoCH) (mandatory)
• Equal high/low (EQH/EQL)
It's inspired by "Smart Money Concepts (SMC) " by LuxAlgo that will also show you the market structure.
It will create the two market structures depending on the pivots found. Both of these market structures can be enabled/disabled. The pivots length can be configured separately. The pivots found will be the 'base' of this indicator and will show you when price breaks it. When that happens a break of structure or a change of character will be created. The latest 5 pivots found within the current trends will be kept to take action on. The internal market structure is shown with dashed lines and swing market structure is shown with solid lines.
A break of structure is removed if an earlier pivots within the same trend is broken. Like in the images below, the first pivot (in the first image) is removed when an earlier pivot's higher price within the same trend is broken (the second image):
Equal high/lows have a pink zone (by default but can be changed by the user). These zones can be configured to be extended to the right (off by default). Equal high/lows are only possible if it's not been broken by price and if a later bar has a high/low within the limit it's added to the zone (without it being more 'extreme' (high or low) then the previous price). A factor (percentage of width) of the Average True Length (of length 14) that the pivot must be within to to be considered an Equal high/low. This is configurable and sets this 'limit' and is 10 by default.
You are able to show the pivots that are used. "HH" (higher high), "HL" (higher low), "LH" (lower high), "LL" (lower low) and "H"/"L" (for pivots (high/low) when the trend has changed) are the labels used.
This script has proven itself useful for me to quickly see how the current market is. You can see the pivots (price and bar) where break of structure or change of character happens to see the current trends. I hope that you will find this useful for you.
When programming I focused on simplicity and ease of read. I did not focus on performance, I will do so if it's a problem (haven't noticed it is one yet).
You can set alerts for when a change of character happens. You can configure it to fire on when it happens (all or once per bar) but it defaults to 'once_per_bar_close' to avoid repainting. This has the drawback to alert you when the bar closes.
TLDR: this is an indicator showing you the market structure (break of structures and change of characters) using swing points/pivots. Two trends can be shown, internal (with pivots of length of 5) and swing (with pivots of the length of 50).
Best of trading luck!
Pulse DPO: Major Cycle Tops and Bottoms█ OVERVIEW
Pulse DPO is an oscillator designed to highlight Major Cycle Tops and Bottoms .
It works on any market driven by cycles. It operates by removing the short-term noise from the price action and focuses on the market's cyclical nature.
This indicator uses a Normalized version of the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) on a 0-100 scale, making it easier to identify major tops and bottoms.
Credit: The DPO was first developed by William Blau in 1991.
█ HOW TO READ IT
Pulse DPO oscillates in the range between 0 and 100. A value in the upper section signals an OverBought (OB) condition, while a value in the lower section signals an OverSold (OS) condition.
Generally, the triggering of OB and OS conditions don't necessarily translate into swing tops and bottoms, but rather suggest caution on approaching a market that might be overextended.
Nevertheless, this indicator has been customized to trigger the signal only during remarkable top and bottom events.
I suggest using it on the Daily Time Frame , but you're free to experiment with this indicator on other time frames.
The indicator has Built-in Alerts to signal the crossing of the Thresholds. Please don't act on an isolated signal, but rather integrate it to work in conjunction with the indicators present in your Trading Plan.
█ OB SIGNAL ON: ENTERING OVERBOUGHT CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Above the Top Threshold it Triggers ON the OB signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to OB color.
When Pulse DPO enters the OB Zone, please beware! In this Area the Major Players usually become Active Sellers to the Public. While the OB signal is On, it might be wise to Consider Selling a portion or the whole Long Position.
Please note that even though this indicator aims to focus on major tops and bottoms, a strong trending market might trigger the OB signal and stay with it for a long time. That's especially true on young markets and on bubble-mode markets.
█ OB SIGNAL OFF: EXITING OVERBOUGHT CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Below the Top Threshold it Triggers OFF the OB signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to its normal color.
When Pulse DPO exits the OB Zone, please beware because a Major Top might just have occurred. In this Area the Major Players usually become Aggressive Sellers. They might wind up any remaining Long Positions and Open new Short Positions.
This might be a good area to Open Shorts or to Close/Reverse any remaining Long Position. Whatever you choose to do, it's usually best to act quickly because the market is prone to enter into panic mode.
█ OS SIGNAL ON: ENTERING OVERSOLD CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Below the Bottom Threshold it Triggers ON the OS signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to OS color.
When Pulse DPO enters the OS Zone, please beware because in this Area the Major Players usually become Active Buyers accumulating Long Positions from the desperate Public.
While the OS signal is On, it might be wise to Consider becoming a Buyer or to implement a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy to build a Long Position towards the next Cycle. In contrast to the tops, the OS state usually takes longer to resolve a major bottom.
█ OS SIGNAL OFF: EXITING OVERSOLD CONDITION
When Pulse DPO crosses Above the Bottom Threshold it Triggers OFF the OS signal. At this point the oscillator line shifts to its normal color.
When Pulse DPO exits the OS Zone, please beware because a Major Bottom might already be in place. In this Area the Major Players become Aggresive Buyers. They might wind up any remaining Short Positions and Open new Long Positions.
This might be a good area to Open Longs or to Close/Reverse any remaining Short Positions.
█ WHY WOULD YOU BE INTERESTED IN THIS INDICATOR?
This indicator is built over a solid foundation capable of signaling Major Cycle Tops and Bottoms across many markets. Let's see some examples:
Early Bitcoin Years: From 0 to 1242
This chart is in logarithmic mode in order to properly display various exponential cycles. Pulse DPO is properly signaling the major early highs from 9-Jun-2011 at 31.50, to the next one on 9-Apr-2013 at 240 and the epic top from 29-Nov-2013 at 1242.
Due to the massive price movements, the OB condition stays pinned during most of the exponential price action. But as you can see, the OB condition quickly vanishes once the Cycle Top has been reached. As the market matures, the OB condition becomes more exceptional and triggers much closer from the Cycle Top.
With regards to Cycle Bottoms, the early bottom of 2 after having peaked at 31.50 doesn’t get captured by the indicator. That is the only cycle bottom that escapes the Pulse DPO when the bottom threshold is set at a value of 5. In that event, the oscillator low reached 6.95.
Bitcoin Adoption Spreading: From 257 to 73k
This chart is in logarithmic mode in order to properly display various exponential cycles. Pulse DPO is properly signaling all the major highs from 17-Dec-2017 at 19k, to the next one on 14-Apr-2021 at 64k and the most recent top from 9-Nov-2021 at 68k.
During the massive run of 2017, the OB condition still stayed triggered for a few weeks on each swing top. But on the next cycles it started to signal only for a few days before each swing top actually happened. The OB condition during the last cycle top triggered only for 3 days. Therefore the signal grows in focus as the market matures.
At the time of publishing this indicator, Bitcoin printed a new All Time High (ATH) on 13-Mar-2024 at 73k. That run didn’t trigger the OB condition. Therefore, if the indicator is correct the Bitcoin market still has some way to grow during the next months.
With regards to Cycle Bottoms, the bottom of 3k after having peaked at19k got captured within the wide OS zone. The bottom of 15k after having peaked at 68k got captured too within the OS accumulation area.
Gold
Pulse DPO behaves surprisingly well on a long standing market such as Gold. Moving back to the 197x years it’s been signaling most Cycle Tops and Bottoms with precision. During the last cycle, it shows topping at 2k and bottoming at 1.6k.
The current price action is signaling OB condition in the range of 2.5k to 2.7k. Looking at past cycles, it tends to trigger on and off at multiple swing tops until reaching the final cycle top. Therefore this might indicate the first wave within a potential gold run.
Oil
On the Oil market, we can see that most of the cycle tops and bottoms since the 80s got signaled. The only exception being the low from 2020 which didn’t trigger.
EURUSD
On Forex markets the Pulse DPO also behaves as expected. Looking back at EURUSD we can see the marketing triggering OB and OS conditions during major cycle tops and bottoms from recent times until the 80s.
S&P 500
On the S&P 500 the Pulse DPO catched the lows from 2016 and 2020. Looking at present price action, the recent ATH didn’t trigger the OB condition. Therefore, the indicator is allowing room for another leg up during the next months.
Amazon
On the Amazon chart the Pulse DPO is mirroring pretty accurately the major swings. Scrolling back to the early 2000s, this chart resembles early exponential swings in the crypto space.
Tesla
Moving onto a younger tech stock, Pulse DPO captures pretty accurately the major tops and bottoms. The chart is shown in logarithmic scale to better display the magnitude of the moves.
█ SETTINGS
This indicator is ideal for identifying major market turning points while filtering out short-term noise. You are free to adjust the parameters to align with your preferred trading style.
Parameters : This section allows you to customize any of the Parameters that shape the Oscillator.
Oscillator Length: Defines the period for calculating the Oscillator.
Offset: Shifts the oscillator calculation by a certain number of periods, which is typically half the Oscillator Length.
Lookback Period: Specifies how many bars to look back to find tops and bottoms for normalization.
Smoothing Length: Determines the length of the moving average used to smooth the oscillator.
Thresholds : This section allows you to customize the Thresholds that trigger the OB and OS conditions.
Top: Defines the value of the Top Threshold.
Bottom: Defines the value of the Bottom Threshold.
Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bars Indicator [Skyrexio]Introduction
Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bars Indicator leverages the combination of candlestick reversal bar pattern and the Williams Alligator indicator to help traders in understanding where there is a high probability of market reversal or correction. Indicator works for both bearish and bullish cases. It visualizes the bearish and bullish reversal bars with red and green dots and also plots the Alligator's lips to make it more convenient for traders to understand if price is above or below lips line (more information in "Methodology and it's justification" paragraph).
Features
Market Facilitation Index(MFI) filter: with the specified parameter in settings user can choose to filter bullish and bearish reversal bars which passed the MFI condition.
Awesome Oscillator(AO) filter: with the specified parameter in settings user can choose to filter bullish and bearish reversal bars which passed the AO condition.
Alerts: user can set up the alert and have notifications when bullish/bearish reversal bar has been printed.
Methodology and it's justification
In the script’s methodology, we apply the concepts of bullish and bearish reversal bars introduced by Bill Williams in his book Trading Chaos. So, what exactly is a bullish or bearish reversal bar? At its core, it’s a candlestick pattern. A bullish reversal bar is a bar that closes in its upper half, while a bearish reversal bar closes in its lower half.
Why is this type of bar significant? Let’s look at the bullish reversal bar as an example. When the price is trending upward, forming higher highs with each candle, and we suddenly see a bullish bar that makes a new high but ultimately closes in its lower half, it signals a shift in control. Bears have taken control toward the end of that candle's period, pushing the price back down. This can be interpreted as a sign of trend weakness and a potential reversal (or at least a correction).
An additional key point is that a reversal bar often indicates a possible end to the trend. Therefore, for a reversal bar to be valid, several preceding candles should show lower highs (for bullish bars) or higher lows (for bearish bars), reinforcing the likelihood of a trend change.
The second step on methodology is the location of the bar related to Williams Alligator. The Williams Alligator Indicator, developed by Bill Williams, is a technical analysis tool that helps traders identify trends and potential turning points in the market. It consists of three lines, often called the jaw, teeth, and lips of the alligator, each representing different moving averages:
Jaw (Blue Line): A slower moving average, typically a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars into the future.
Teeth (Red Line): A medium moving average, typically an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars into the future.
Lips (Green Line): A faster moving average, usually a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars into the future.
When the three lines are spread out and moving in the same direction, it suggests a strong trend (the "alligator" is "awake and feeding"). When they intertwine, the indicator suggests that the market is moving sideways, or in a range, signaling a lack of clear trend (the "alligator" is "sleeping"). Traders use the Alligator Indicator to enter trades in trending markets and avoid trades in choppy, non-trending markets.
If bullish reversal bar's high is not below and bearish reversal bar's low is not above all three Alligator's lines (jaw, lips, teeth) they cannot be interpreted as these types of bars. It can be explained as following: if we are waiting for the bullish reversal bar it shall be reversal from downtrend. If price is not below all three lines it can't be interpret as the downtrend according to this method. The opposite is true for the bearish reversal bar.
All described above are obligatory conditions for reversal bar, now let's discuss two not obligatory conditions. The first one is Market Facilitation Index (MFI) restriction. Let's briefly look what is MFI. The Market Facilitation Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that measures the price movement per unit of volume, helping traders gauge the efficiency of price movement in relation to trading volume. Here's how you can calculate it:
MFI = (High−Low)/Volume
MFI can be used in combination with volume, so we can divide 4 states. Bill Williams introduced these to help traders interpret the interaction between volume and price movement. Here’s a quick summary:
Green Window (Increased MFI & Increased Volume): Indicates strong momentum with both price and volume increasing. Often a sign of trend continuation, as both buying and selling interest are rising.
Fake Window (Increased MFI & Decreased Volume): Shows that price is moving but with lower volume, suggesting weak support for the trend. This can signal a potential end of the current trend.
Squat Window (Decreased MFI & Increased Volume): Shows high volume but little price movement, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This often precedes a breakout as the pressure builds.
Fade Window (Decreased MFI & Decreased Volume): Indicates a lack of interest from both buyers and sellers, leading to lower momentum. This typically happens in range-bound markets and may signal consolidation before a new move.
For our purposes we are interested in squat bars. This is the sign that volume cannot move the price easily. This type of bar increases the probability of trend reversal. In this indicator we added to enable the MFI filter of reversal bars. If potential reversal bar or two preceding bars have squat state this bar can be interpret as a reversal one.
The second additional filter is Awesome Oscillator. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), developed by Bill Williams, is a momentum indicator that measures market momentum by comparing recent price action to a longer historical context. It helps traders identify potential trend reversals and the strength of trends. Formula:
AO = SMA5(Median Price) − SMA34(Median Price)
where:
Median Price = (High + Low) / 2
SMA5 = 5-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
SMA 34 = 34-period Simple Moving Average of the Median Price
If AO is decreasing momentum is bearish, if increasing - bullish. According to Bill Williams approach reversal bars are the potential trades against the trend. As a result we added second filter for bullish reversal bars AO shall be decreasing, for bearish increasing.
How to use indicator
Apply it to desired chart and time frame. It works on every time frame.
Setup the filters with the "Enable MFI" and "Enable AO" checkboxes in the settings. By default they are turned on.
Analyze the price action. Indicator plotted the white line, this is the lips of an Alligator. It will help you to understand how price is moving in comparison to lips line. Indicator will print the green dot and text "BULL" below it current bar is bullish reversal. It will print the red dot and text "BEAR" above it if current bar is interpreted by algorithm as a bearish reversal.
Set up the alerts if it's needed. Indicator has two custom alerts called "Bullish reversal bar has been printed" and "Bearish reversal bar has been printed"
Disclaimer:
Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrex commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test indicators before live implementation.
Dual Momentum StrategyThis Pine Script™ strategy implements the "Dual Momentum" approach developed by Gary Antonacci, as presented in his book Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk (McGraw Hill Professional, 2014). Dual momentum investing combines relative momentum and absolute momentum to maximize returns while minimizing risk. Relative momentum involves selecting the asset with the highest recent performance between two options (a risky asset and a safe asset), while absolute momentum considers whether the chosen asset has a positive return over a specified lookback period.
In this strategy:
Risky Asset (SPY): Represents a stock index fund, typically more volatile but with higher potential returns.
Safe Asset (TLT): Represents a bond index fund, which generally has lower volatility and acts as a hedge during market downturns.
Monthly Momentum Calculation: The momentum for each asset is calculated based on its price change over the last 12 months. Only assets with a positive momentum (absolute momentum) are considered for investment.
Decision Rules:
Invest in the risky asset if its momentum is positive and greater than that of the safe asset.
If the risky asset’s momentum is negative or lower than the safe asset's, the strategy shifts the allocation to the safe asset.
Scientific Reference
Antonacci's work on dual momentum investing has shown the strategy's ability to outperform traditional buy-and-hold methods while reducing downside risk. This approach has been reviewed and discussed in both academic and investment publications, highlighting its strong risk-adjusted returns (Antonacci, 2014).
Reference: Antonacci, G. (2014). Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk. McGraw Hill Professional.
Supertrend StrategyThe Supertrend Strategy was created based on the Supertrend and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators, widely respected tools in technical analysis. This strategy combines these two indicators to capture market trends with precision and reliability, looking for optimizing exit levels at oversold or overbought price levels.
The Supertrend indicator identifies trend direction based on price and volatility by using the Average True Range (ATR). The ATR measures market volatility by calculating the average range between an asset’s high and low prices over a set period. It provides insight into price fluctuations, with higher ATR values indicating increased volatility and lower values suggesting stability. The Supertrend Indicator plots a line above or below the price, signaling potential buy or sell opportunities: when the price closes above the Supertrend line, an uptrend is indicated, while a close below the line suggests a downtrend. This line shifts as price movements and volatility levels change, acting as both a trailing stop loss and trend confirmation.
To enhance the Supertrend strategy, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been added as an exit criterion. As a momentum oscillator, the RSI indicates overbought (usually above 70) or oversold (usually below 30) conditions. This integration allows trades to close when the asset is overbought or oversold, capturing gains before a possible reversal, even if the percentage take profit level has not been reached. This mechanism aims to prevent losses due to market reversals before the Supertrend signal changes.
### Key Features
1. **Entry criteria**:
- The strategy uses the Supertrend indicator calculated by adding or subtracting a multiple of the ATR from the closing price, depending on the trend direction.
- When the price crosses above the Supertrend line, the strategy signals a long (buy) entry. Conversely, when the price crosses below, it signals a short (sell) entry.
- The strategy performs a reversal if there is an open position and a change in the direction of the supertrend occurs
2. **Exit criteria**:
- Take profit of 30% (default) on the average position price.
- Oversold (≤ 5) or overbought (≥ 95) RSI
- Reversal when there is a change in direction of the Supertrend
3. **No Repainting**:
- This strategy is not subject to repainting, as long as the timeframe configured on your chart is the same as the supertrend timeframe .
4. **Position Sizing by Equity and risk management**:
- This strategy has a default configuration to operate with 35% of the equity. At the time of opening the position, the supertrend line is typically positioned at about 12 to 16% of the entry price. This way, the strategy is putting at risk about 16% of 35% of equity, that is, around 5.6% of equity for each trade. The percentage of equity can be adjusted by the user according to their risk management.
5. **Backtest results**:
- This strategy was subjected to deep backtesting and operations in replay mode, including transaction fees of 0.12%, and slippage of 5 ticks.
- The past results in deep backtest and replay mode were compatible and profitable (Variable results depending on the take profit used, supertrend and RSI parameters). However, it should be noted that few operations were evaluated, since the currency in question has been created for a short time and the frequency of operations is relatively small.
- Past results are no guarantee of future results. The strategy's backtest results may even be due to overfitting with past data.
Default Settings
Chart timeframe: 2h
Supertrend Factor: 3.42
ATR period: 14
Supertrend timeframe: 2 h
RSI timeframe: 15 min
RSI Lenght: 5 min
RSI Upper limit: 95
RSI Lower Limit: 5
Take Profit: 30%
BYBIT:1000000MOGUSDT.P
Statistical ArbitrageThe Statistical Arbitrage Strategy, also known as pairs trading, is a quantitative trading method that capitalizes on price discrepancies between two correlated assets. The strategy assumes that over time, the prices of these two assets will revert to their historical relationship. The core idea is to take advantage of mean reversion, a principle suggesting that asset prices will revert to their long-term average after deviating significantly.
Strategy Mechanics:
1. Selection of Correlated Assets:
• The strategy focuses on two historically correlated assets (e.g., equity index futures like Dow Jones Mini and S&P 500 Mini). These assets tend to move in the same direction due to similar underlying fundamentals, such as overall market conditions. By tracking their relative prices, the strategy seeks to exploit temporary mispricings.
2. Spread Calculation:
• The spread is the difference between the prices of the two assets. This spread represents the relationship between the assets and serves as the basis for determining when to enter or exit trades.
3. Mean and Standard Deviation:
• The historical average (mean) of the spread is calculated using a Simple Moving Average (SMA) over a chosen period. The strategy also computes the standard deviation (volatility) of the spread, which measures how far the spread has deviated from the mean over time. This allows the strategy to define statistically significant price deviations.
4. Entry Signal (Mean Reversion):
• A buy signal is triggered when the spread falls below the mean by a multiple (e.g., two) of the standard deviation. This indicates that one asset is temporarily undervalued relative to the other, and the strategy expects the spread to revert to its mean, generating profits as the prices converge.
5. Exit Signal:
• The strategy exits the trade when the spread reverts to the mean. At this point, the mispricing has been corrected, and the profit from the mean reversion is realized.
Academic Support:
Statistical arbitrage has been widely studied in finance and economics. Gatev, Goetzmann, and Rouwenhorst’s (2006) landmark study on pairs trading demonstrated that this strategy could generate excess returns in equity markets. Their research found that by focusing on historically correlated stocks, traders could identify pricing anomalies and profit from their eventual correction.
Additionally, Avellaneda and Lee (2010) explored statistical arbitrage in different asset classes and found that exploiting deviations in price relationships can offer a robust, market-neutral trading strategy. In these studies, the strategy’s success hinges on the stability of the relationship between the assets and the timely execution of trades when deviations occur.
Risks of Statistical Arbitrage:
1. Correlation Breakdown:
• One of the primary risks is the breakdown of correlation between the two assets. Statistical arbitrage assumes that the historical relationship between the assets will hold in the future. However, market conditions, company fundamentals, or external shocks (e.g., macroeconomic changes) can cause these assets to deviate permanently, leading to potential losses.
• For instance, if two equity indices historically move together but experience divergent economic conditions or policy changes, their prices may no longer revert to the expected mean.
2. Execution Risk:
• This strategy relies on efficient execution and tight spreads. In volatile or illiquid markets, the actual price at which trades are executed may differ significantly from expected prices, leading to slippage and reduced profits.
3. Market Risk:
• Although statistical arbitrage is designed to be market-neutral (i.e., not dependent on the overall market direction), it is not entirely risk-free. Systematic market shocks, such as financial crises or sudden shifts in market sentiment, can affect both assets simultaneously, causing the spread to widen rather than revert to the mean.
4. Model Risk:
• The assumptions underlying the strategy, particularly regarding mean reversion, may not always hold true. The model assumes that asset prices will return to their historical averages within a certain timeframe, but the timing and magnitude of mean reversion can be uncertain. Misestimating this timeframe can lead to extended drawdowns or unrealized losses.
5. Overfitting:
• Over-reliance on historical data to fine-tune the strategy parameters (e.g., the lookback period or standard deviation thresholds) may result in overfitting. This means that the strategy works well on past data but fails to perform in live markets due to changing conditions.
Conclusion:
The Statistical Arbitrage Strategy offers a systematic and quantitative approach to trading that capitalizes on temporary price inefficiencies between correlated assets. It has been proven to generate returns in academic studies and is widely used by hedge funds and institutional traders for its market-neutral characteristics. However, traders must be aware of the inherent risks, including correlation breakdown, execution risks, and the potential for prolonged deviations from the mean. Effective risk management, diversification, and constant monitoring are essential for successfully implementing this strategy in live markets.
Value at Risk [OmegaTools]The "Value at Risk" (VaR) indicator is a powerful financial risk management tool that helps traders estimate the potential losses in a portfolio over a specified period of time, given a certain level of confidence. VaR is widely used by financial institutions, traders, and risk managers to assess the probability of portfolio losses in both normal and volatile market conditions. This TradingView script implements a comprehensive VaR calculation using several models, allowing users to visualize different risk scenarios and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
Concept of Value at Risk
Value at Risk (VaR) is a statistical technique used to measure the likelihood of losses in a portfolio or financial asset due to market risks. In essence, it answers the question: "What is the maximum potential loss that could occur in a given portfolio over a specific time horizon, with a certain confidence level?" For instance, if a portfolio has a one-day 95% VaR of $10,000, it means that there is a 95% chance the portfolio will not lose more than $10,000 in a single day. Conversely, there is a 5% chance of losing more than $10,000. VaR is a key risk management tool for portfolio managers and traders because it quantifies potential losses in monetary terms, allowing for better-informed decision-making.
There are several ways to calculate VaR, and this indicator script incorporates three of the most commonly used models:
Historical VaR: This approach uses historical returns to estimate potential losses. It is based purely on past price data, assuming that the past distribution of returns is indicative of future risks.
Variance-Covariance VaR: This model assumes that asset returns follow a normal distribution and that the risk can be summarized using the mean and standard deviation of past returns. It is a parametric method that is widely used in financial risk management.
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) VaR: In this model, recent data points are given more weight than older data. This dynamic approach allows the VaR estimation to react more quickly to changes in market volatility, which is particularly useful during periods of market stress. This model uses the Exponential Weighted Moving Average Volatility Model.
How the Script Works
The script starts by offering users a set of customizable input settings. The first input allows the user to choose between two main calculation modes: "All" or "OCT" (Only Current Timeframe). In the "All" mode, the script calculates VaR using all available methodologies—Historical, Variance-Covariance, and EWMA—providing a comprehensive risk overview. The "OCT" mode narrows the calculation to the current timeframe, which can be particularly useful for intraday traders who need a more focused view of risk.
The next input is the lookback window, which defines the number of historical periods used to calculate VaR. Commonly used lookback periods include 21 days (approximately one month), 63 days (about three months), and 252 days (roughly one year), with the script supporting up to 504 days for more extended historical analysis. A longer lookback period provides a more comprehensive picture of risk but may be less responsive to recent market conditions.
The confidence level is another important setting in the script. This represents the probability that the loss will not exceed the VaR estimate. Standard confidence levels are 90%, 95%, and 99%. A higher confidence level results in a more conservative risk estimate, meaning that the calculated VaR will reflect a more extreme loss scenario.
In addition to these core settings, the script allows users to customize the visual appearance of the indicator. For example, traders can choose different colors for "Bullish" (Risk On), "Bearish" (Risk Off), and "Neutral" phases, as well as colors for highlighting "Breaks" in the data, where returns exceed the calculated VaR. These visual cues make it easy to identify periods of heightened risk at a glance.
The actual VaR calculation is broken down into several models, starting with the Historical VaR calculation. This is done by computing the logarithmic returns of the asset's closing prices and then using linear interpolation to determine the percentile corresponding to the desired confidence level. This percentile represents the potential loss in the asset over the lookback period.
Next, the script calculates Variance-Covariance VaR using the mean and standard deviation of the historical returns. The standard deviation is multiplied by a z-score corresponding to the chosen confidence level (e.g., 1.645 for 95% confidence), and the resulting value is subtracted from the mean return to arrive at the VaR estimate.
The EWMA VaR model uses the EWMA for the sigma parameter, the standard deviation, obtaining a specific dynamic in the volatility. It is particularly useful in volatile markets where recent price behavior is more indicative of future risk than older data.
For traders interested in intraday risk management, the script provides several methods to adjust VaR calculations for lower timeframes. By using intraday returns and scaling them according to the chosen timeframe, the script provides a dynamic view of risk throughout the trading day. This is especially important for short-term traders who need to manage their exposure during high-volatility periods within the same day. The script also incorporates an EWMA model for intraday data, which gives greater weight to the most recent intraday price movements.
In addition to calculating VaR, the script also attempts to detect periods where the asset's returns exceed the estimated VaR threshold, referred to as "Breaks." When the returns breach the VaR limit, the script highlights these instances on the chart, allowing traders to quickly identify periods of extreme risk. The script also calculates the average of these breaks and displays it for comparison, helping traders understand how frequently these high-risk periods occur.
The script further visualizes the risk scenario using a risk phase classification system. Depending on the level of risk, the script categorizes the market as either "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral." In "Risk On" mode, the market is considered bullish, and the indicator displays a green background. In "Risk Off" mode, the market is bearish, and the background turns red. If the market is neither strongly bullish nor bearish, the background turns neutral, signaling a balanced risk environment.
Traders can customize whether they want to see this risk phase background, along with toggling the display of the various VaR models, the intraday methods, and the break signals. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs, whether they are day traders looking for quick intraday insights or longer-term investors focused on historical risk analysis.
The "Risk On" and "Risk Off" phases calculated by this Value at Risk (VaR) script introduce a novel approach to market risk assessment, offering traders an advanced toolset to gauge market sentiment and potential risk levels dynamically. These risk phases are built on a combination of traditional VaR methodologies and proprietary logic to create a more responsive and intuitive way to manage exposure in both normal and volatile market conditions. This method of classifying market conditions into "Risk On," "Risk Off," or "Risk Neutral" is not something that has been traditionally associated with VaR, making it a groundbreaking addition to this indicator.
How the "Risk On" and "Risk Off" Phases Are Calculated
In typical VaR implementations, the focus is on calculating the potential losses at a given confidence level without providing an overall market outlook. This script, however, introduces a unique risk classification system that takes the output of various VaR models and translates it into actionable signals for traders, marking whether the market is in a Risk On, Risk Off, or Risk Neutral phase.
The Risk On and Risk Off phases are primarily determined by comparing the current returns of the asset to the average VaR calculated across several different methods, including Historical VaR, Variance-Covariance VaR, and EWMA VaR. Here's how the process works:
1. Threshold Setting and Effect Calculation: The script first computes the average VaR using the selected models. It then checks whether the current returns (expressed as a negative value to signify loss) exceed the average VaR value. If the current returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold, this indicates that the actual market risk is higher than expected, signaling a potential shift in market conditions.
2. Break Analysis: In addition to monitoring whether returns exceed the average VaR, the script counts the number of instances within the lookback period where this breach occurs. This is referred to as the "break effect." For each period in the lookback window, the script checks whether the returns surpass the calculated VaR threshold and increments a counter. The percentage of periods where this breach occurs is then calculated as the "effect" or break percentage.
3. Dual Effect Check (if "Double" Risk Scenario is selected): When the user chooses the "Double" risk scenario mode, the script performs two layers of analysis. First, it calculates the effect of returns exceeding the VaR threshold for the current timeframe. Then, it calculates the effect for the lower intraday timeframe as well. Both effects are compared to the user-defined confidence level (e.g., 95%). If both effects exceed the confidence level, the market is deemed to be in a high-risk situation, thus triggering a Risk Off phase. If both effects fall below the confidence level, the market is classified as Risk On.
4. Risk Phases Determination: The final risk phase is determined by analyzing these effects in relation to the confidence level:
- Risk On: If the calculated effect of breaks is lower than the confidence level (e.g., fewer than 5% of periods show returns exceeding the VaR threshold for a 95% confidence level), the market is considered to be in a relatively safe state, and the script signals a "Risk On" phase. This is indicative of bullish conditions where the potential for extreme loss is minimal.
- Risk Off: If the break effect exceeds the confidence level (e.g., more than 5% of periods show returns breaching the VaR threshold), the market is deemed to be in a high-risk state, and the script signals a "Risk Off" phase. This indicates bearish market conditions where the likelihood of significant losses is higher.
- Risk Neutral: If the break effect hovers near the confidence level or if there is no clear trend indicating a shift toward either extreme, the market is classified as "Risk Neutral." In this phase, neither bulls nor bears are dominant, and traders should remain cautious.
The phase color that the script uses helps visualize these risk phases. The background will turn green in Risk On conditions, red in Risk Off conditions, and gray in Risk Neutral phases, providing immediate visual feedback on market risk. In addition to this, when the "Double" risk scenario is selected, the background will only turn green or red if both the current and intraday timeframes confirm the respective risk phase. This double-checking process ensures that traders are only given a strong signal when both longer-term and short-term risks align, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
A New Way of Using Value at Risk
This innovative Risk On/Risk Off classification, based on the interaction between VaR thresholds and market returns, represents a significant departure from the traditional use of Value at Risk as a pure risk measurement tool. Typically, VaR is employed as a backward-looking measure of risk, providing a static estimate of potential losses over a given timeframe with no immediate actionable feedback on current market conditions. This script, however, dynamically interprets VaR results to create a forward-looking, real-time signal that informs traders whether they are operating in a favorable (Risk On) or unfavorable (Risk Off) environment.
By incorporating the "break effect" analysis and allowing users to view the VaR breaches as a percentage of past occurrences, the script adds a predictive element that can be used to time market entries and exits more effectively. This **dual-layer risk analysis**, particularly when using the "Double" scenario mode, adds further granularity by considering both current timeframe and intraday risks. Traders can therefore make more informed decisions not just based on historical risk data, but on how the market is behaving in real-time relative to those risk benchmarks.
This approach transforms the VaR indicator from a risk monitoring tool into a decision-making system that helps identify favorable trading opportunities while alerting users to potential market downturns. It provides a more holistic view of market conditions by combining both statistical risk measurement and intuitive phase-based market analysis. This level of integration between VaR methodologies and real-time signal generation has not been widely seen in the world of trading indicators, marking this script as a cutting-edge tool for risk management and market sentiment analysis.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to @skewedzeta for his invaluable contribution to the final script. From generating fresh ideas to applying his expertise in reviewing the formula, his support has been instrumental in refining the outcome.
Signals Pro [traderslog]The "Signals Pro" indicator is an advanced and versatile trading tool designed to help traders accurately identify key buy and sell signals using a combination of technical analysis factors such as candle patterns , RSI (Relative Strength Index) , and candle stability . It is highly customizable and offers a range of options that make it suitable for both short-term and long-term traders. By filtering market noise and providing actionable insights, this indicator enhances decision-making and helps traders capitalize on market movements.
At the core of the "Signals Pro" indicator is the concept of Candle Stability . The Candle Stability Index measures the ratio between a candle's body and its wicks, providing insight into the strength of the price movement during that period. A higher value indicates that the candle is more stable, meaning that the price has moved significantly without much retracement. This stability filter is crucial because it prevents the generation of signals during volatile or choppy market conditions where price direction is uncertain. Traders can adjust the Candle Stability Index from 0 to 1, allowing for precise control over how stable a candle must be for the indicator to generate a signal.
Another key feature is the use of RSI (Relative Strength Index) , a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI index parameter in the indicator can be customized to detect overbought or oversold conditions. When the RSI falls below the defined threshold, it signals that the market may be oversold , which can indicate a potential buying opportunity . Conversely, when the RSI exceeds a certain value, it suggests that the market is overbought , signaling a potential selling opportunity . This allows traders to time their trades more effectively by entering when market conditions are favorable and exiting before a potential reversal occurs.
The Candle Delta Length is another critical element of the "Signals Pro" indicator. This parameter measures how much the price has increased or decreased over a specific number of candles. By adjusting the Candle Delta Length , traders can define how many periods the indicator should analyze before generating a signal. A longer Candle Delta Length means the price has been trending in one direction for a longer period, providing more reliable signals. For instance, if the price has been steadily decreasing for five candles, this could signal a bullish reversal , triggering a buy signal .
To further enhance its accuracy, the "Signals Pro" indicator includes a unique feature that allows traders to disable repeating signals . This is particularly useful in situations where the market is moving sideways or during low volatility periods, where multiple signals may cluster close together, creating confusion. By enabling the disable repeating signals option, traders can prevent these repeated signals and focus on the most important and confirmed signals, ensuring cleaner charts and reducing the risk of overtrading.
A key technical aspect of the indicator is its ability to detect bullish and bearish engulfing patterns . The indicator looks for bullish engulfing patterns, which occur when a bullish candle fully engulfs the body of the previous bearish candle, signaling a potential bullish reversal . Conversely, bearish engulfing patterns occur when a bearish candle fully engulfs the previous bullish candle, indicating a bearish reversal . By incorporating these candle patterns with the Candle Stability Index and RSI levels , the indicator provides highly reliable signals based on price action and market sentiment.
Visual customization is another major advantage of the "Signals Pro" indicator. Traders can choose from several different label styles , such as text bubbles , triangles , or arrows to mark the buy and sell signals on the chart. This makes the signals stand out and easy to interpret at a glance. Furthermore, the color of these signals can be customized: green for buy signals and red for sell signals , along with options to adjust the text size and label styles for even more personalization. Traders can make the signals more or less prominent based on their preference, enhancing readability and workflow efficiency.
The indicator also includes a comprehensive alert system , ensuring traders never miss an opportunity. Alerts can be set for both buy and sell signals , and the system triggers in real-time when a valid signal is generated. This is especially useful for active traders who want to stay on top of the markets without constantly monitoring their screens. The alert system helps ensure that traders are notified of potential trading opportunities as soon as they arise, allowing them to act quickly in volatile markets.
From a practical standpoint, the "Signals Pro" indicator is designed to work seamlessly across multiple timeframes, making it suitable for scalpers, day traders, swing traders, and even long-term investors. Its flexibility allows it to adapt to different trading styles and time horizons, providing value for a wide range of market participants.
In summary, the Signals Pro indicator offers a robust and customizable solution for identifying buy and sell signals . By combining candle stability , RSI analysis , and engulfing patterns , the indicator provides traders with reliable signals to enter or exit trades. The ability to customize signal appearance, coupled with a real-time alert system , makes the "Signals Pro" indicator an invaluable tool for traders looking to improve their timing and decision-making. Whether you are looking to capture short-term price movements or want to time entries and exits in longer-term trends, this indicator offers the insights needed to navigate the markets with confidence.
ICT CheckListCredit to the owner of this script "TalesOfTrader"
The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
“Has Asia Session ended?” : This question aims to determine if the Asian trading session has ended. The answer to this question can influence trading strategies depending on market conditions.
“Have you identified potential medium induction?” : This question concerns the identification of potential average inductions on the market. Recognizing these inductions can help traders anticipate future price movements.
"Have you identified potential PoI's": This question asks about the identification of potential points of interest on the market. These points of interest can indicate areas of significant support or resistance.
"Have you identified in which direction they are creating lQ?" : This question aims to determine in which direction market participants create liquidity (lQ). Understanding this dynamic can help make informed trade decisions.
“Have they induced Asia Range”: This question concerns the induction of the Asian range by market participants. Recognizing this induction can be important in assessing future price movements.
“Have you had a medium induction”: This question asks about the presence of a medium induction on the market. The answer to this question can influence trading prospects.
“Do you have a BoS away from the induction”: This question aims to find out if the trader has an offer (BoS) far from the identified induction. This can be a risk management strategy.
"Doas your induction PoI have imbalance": This question concerns the imbalance of points of interest (PoI) linked to induction. Recognizing this imbalance can help anticipate price movements.
“Do you have a valid target in mind”: This question aims to find out if the trader has a clear trading objective in mind. Having a goal can help guide trading decisions and manage risk.
Bitcoin CME-Spot Z-Spread - Strategy [presentTrading]This time is a swing trading strategy! It measures the sentiment of the Bitcoin market through the spread of CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread, the strategy seeks to capture mean-reversion opportunities when prices deviate significantly from their historical norms
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is designed to capture mean-reversion opportunities by exploiting the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. The strategy uses Bollinger Bands to detect when the spread between these two correlated assets has deviated significantly from its historical norm, signaling potential overbought or oversold conditions.
What sets this strategy apart is its focus on spread trading between futures and spot markets rather than price-based indicators. By applying Bollinger Bands to the spread rather than individual prices, the strategy identifies price inefficiencies across markets, allowing traders to take advantage of the natural reversion to the mean that often occurs in these correlated assets.
BTCUSD 8hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy relies on Bollinger Bands to assess the volatility and relative deviation of the spread between CME Bitcoin Futures and Bitfinex BTCUSD Spot prices. Bollinger Bands consist of a moving average and two standard deviation bands, which help measure how much the spread deviates from its historical mean.
🔶 Spread Calculation:
The spread is calculated by subtracting the Bitfinex spot price from the CME Bitcoin futures price:
Spread = CME Price - Bitfinex Price
This spread represents the difference between the futures and spot markets, which may widen or narrow based on supply and demand dynamics in each market. By analyzing the spread, the strategy can detect when prices are too far apart (potentially overbought or oversold), indicating a trading opportunity.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Calculation:
The Bollinger Bands for the spread are calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) and the standard deviation of the spread over a defined period.
1. Moving Average (SMA):
The simple moving average of the spread (mu_S) over a specified period P is calculated as:
mu_S = (1/P) * sum(S_i from i=1 to P)
Where S_i represents the spread at time i, and P is the lookback period (default is 200 bars). The moving average provides a baseline for the normal spread behavior.
2. Standard Deviation:
The standard deviation (sigma_S) of the spread is calculated to measure the volatility of the spread:
sigma_S = sqrt((1/P) * sum((S_i - mu_S)^2 from i=1 to P))
3. Upper and Lower Bollinger Bands:
The upper and lower Bollinger Bands are derived by adding and subtracting a multiple of the standard deviation from the moving average. The number of standard deviations is determined by a user-defined parameter k (default is 2.618).
- Upper Band:
Upper Band = mu_S + (k * sigma_S)
- Lower Band:
Lower Band = mu_S - (k * sigma_S)
These bands provide a dynamic range within which the spread typically fluctuates. When the spread moves outside of these bands, it is considered overbought or oversold, potentially offering trading opportunities.
Local view
🔶 Entry Conditions:
- Long Entry: A long position is triggered when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become oversold and is likely to revert upward.
Spread < Lower Band
- Short Entry: A short position is triggered when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the spread has become overbought and is likely to revert downward.
Spread > Upper Band
🔶 Risk Management and Profit-Taking:
The strategy incorporates multi-step take profits to lock in gains as the trade moves in favor. The position is gradually reduced at predefined profit levels, reducing risk while allowing part of the trade to continue running if the price keeps moving favorably.
Additionally, the strategy uses a hold period exit mechanism. If the trade does not hit any of the take-profit levels within a certain number of bars, the position is closed automatically to avoid excessive exposure to market risks.
█ Trade Direction
The trade direction is based on deviations of the spread from its historical norm:
- Long Trade: The strategy enters a long position when the spread crosses below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling an oversold condition where the spread is expected to narrow.
- Short Trade: The strategy enters a short position when the spread crosses above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling an overbought condition where the spread is expected to widen.
These entries rely on the assumption of mean reversion, where extreme deviations from the average spread are likely to revert over time.
█ Usage
The Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on price inefficiencies between Bitcoin futures and spot markets. It’s especially useful in volatile markets where large deviations between futures and spot prices occur.
- Market Conditions: This strategy is most effective in correlated markets, like CME futures and spot Bitcoin. Traders can adjust the Bollinger Bands period and standard deviation multiplier to suit different volatility regimes.
- Backtesting: Before deployment, backtesting the strategy across different market conditions and timeframes is recommended to ensure robustness. Adjust the take-profit steps and hold periods to reflect the trader’s risk tolerance and market behavior.
█ Default Settings
The default settings provide a balanced approach to spread trading using Bollinger Bands but can be adjusted depending on market conditions or personal trading preferences.
🔶 Bollinger Bands Period (200 bars):
This defines the number of bars used to calculate the moving average and standard deviation for the Bollinger Bands. A longer period smooths out short-term fluctuations and focuses on larger, more significant trends. Adjusting the period affects the responsiveness of the strategy:
- Shorter periods (e.g., 100 bars): Makes the strategy more reactive to short-term market fluctuations, potentially generating more signals but increasing the risk of false positives.
- Longer periods (e.g., 300 bars): Focuses on longer-term trends, reducing the frequency of trades and focusing only on significant deviations.
🔶 Standard Deviation Multiplier (2.618):
The multiplier controls how wide the Bollinger Bands are around the moving average. By default, the bands are set at 2.618 standard deviations away from the average, ensuring that only significant deviations trigger trades.
- Higher multipliers (e.g., 3.0): Require a more extreme deviation to trigger trades, reducing trade frequency but potentially increasing the accuracy of signals.
- Lower multipliers (e.g., 2.0): Make the bands narrower, increasing the number of trade signals but potentially decreasing their reliability.
🔶 Take-Profit Levels:
The strategy has four take-profit levels to gradually lock in profits:
- Level 1 (3%): 25% of the position is closed at a 3% profit.
- Level 2 (8%): 20% of the position is closed at an 8% profit.
- Level 3 (14%): 15% of the position is closed at a 14% profit.
- Level 4 (21%): 10% of the position is closed at a 21% profit.
Adjusting these take-profit levels affects how quickly profits are realized:
- Lower take-profit levels: Capture gains more quickly, reducing risk but potentially cutting off larger profits.
- Higher take-profit levels: Let trades run longer, aiming for bigger gains but increasing the risk of price reversals before profits are locked in.
🔶 Hold Days (20 bars):
The strategy automatically closes the position after 20 bars if none of the take-profit levels are hit. This feature prevents trades from being held indefinitely, especially if market conditions are stagnant. Adjusting this:
- Shorter hold periods: Reduce the duration of exposure, minimizing risks from market changes but potentially closing trades too early.
- Longer hold periods: Allow trades to stay open longer, increasing the chance for mean reversion but also increasing exposure to unfavorable market conditions.
By understanding how these default settings affect the strategy’s performance, traders can optimize the Bitcoin CME-Spot Bollinger Bands Strategy to their preferences, adapting it to different market environments and risk tolerances.
Price Action Volumetric Breaker Blocks [UAlgo]The Price Action Volumetric Breaker Blocks indicator is designed to identify and visualize significant price levels in the market. It combines concepts of price action, volume analysis, and market structure to provide traders with a comprehensive view of potential support and resistance areas. This indicator identifies "breaker blocks," which are price zones where the market has shown significant interest in the past.
These blocks are created based on swing highs and lows, and are further analyzed using volume data to determine their strength. The indicator also tracks market structure shifts, providing additional context to price movements.
By visualizing these key levels and market structure changes, traders can gain insights into potential areas of price reversal or continuation, helping them make more informed trading decisions.
🔶 Key Features
Dynamic Breaker Block Identification: The indicator automatically detects and draws breaker blocks based on swing highs and lows. These blocks represent areas of potential support and resistance.
Volume-Weighted Strength Analysis: Each breaker block is analyzed using volume data to determine its bullish and bearish strength. This is visually represented by the proportion of green (bullish) and red (bearish) coloring within each block.
Market Structure Break (MSB) and Break of Structure (BOS): The indicator identifies and labels Market Structure Breaks (MSB) and Break of Structure (BOS) events, providing context to larger market trends.
Customizable Settings:
- Adjustable swing length for identifying pivot points
- Option to show a specific number of recent breaker blocks
- Choice between wick or close price for violation checks
- Toggle to hide overlapping blocks for cleaner analysis
Violation Detection: Automatically detects when a breaker block has been violated (broken through), either by wick or close price, depending on user settings.
Overlap Control: Provides an option to hide overlapping order blocks, ensuring that the chart remains clean and easy to read when multiple blocks are detected in close proximity.
🔶 Interpreting Indicator
Breaker Blocks:
Breaker blocks are key areas where the price moves through and invalidates a previously identified order block. The indicator detects a breaker block when the price violates an order block by exceeding its high or low (depending on whether it's a bullish or bearish block). This violation is determined by either the wick or the close of a candle, depending on the user's selection in the "Violation Check" setting. When a breaker block is detected, the indicator removes the violated order block from the chart, signaling that the zone is no longer relevant for future price action.
Bullish Breaker Block: This occurs when a bearish order block (red) is violated by the price closing above the block’s top boundary or when the wick surpasses this level. It signals that a prior bearish structure has been invalidated, and the market may shift to a bullish trend.
Bearish Breaker Block: This occurs when a bullish order block (teal) is violated by the price closing below the block’s bottom boundary or when the wick drops below it. It suggests that a previous bullish structure has been broken, indicating potential bearish momentum.
Market Structure Labels:
"MSB" (Market Structure Break) labels indicate a potential change in trend direction.
"BOS" (Break of Structure) labels confirm the continuation of the current trend after breaking a significant level.
Block Strength:
A block with more green indicates stronger bullish interest.
A block with more red indicates stronger bearish interest.
The relative sizes of the green and red portions show the balance of power between buyers and sellers at that level.
🔶 Disclaimer
Use with Caution: This indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Users should exercise caution and perform their own analysis before making trading decisions based on the indicator's signals.
Not Financial Advice: The information provided by this indicator does not constitute financial advice, and the creator (UAlgo) shall not be held responsible for any trading losses incurred as a result of using this indicator.
Backtesting Recommended: Traders are encouraged to backtest the indicator thoroughly on historical data before using it in live trading to assess its performance and suitability for their trading strategies.
Risk Management: Trading involves inherent risks, and users should implement proper risk management strategies, including but not limited to stop-loss orders and position sizing, to mitigate potential losses.
No Guarantees: The accuracy and reliability of the indicator's signals cannot be guaranteed, as they are based on historical price data and past performance may not be indicative of future results.
BTC Arcturus IndicatorBTC Arcturus Indicator: This indicator is designed to create buy and sell signals based on the market value of Bitcoin. It also predicts potential market tops with the Pi Cycle Top indicator.
How Does It Work?
1. MVRVZ (Market Value to Realized Value-Z Score) Calculation:
MC: Bitcoin's market cap (Market Cap) is pulled daily from Glassnode data.
MCR: Realized Market Cap of Bitcoin is taken daily from Coinmetrics data.
MVRVZ: It is calculated by dividing the difference between Bitcoin's market value and realized market value by one standard deviation. This value indicates whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.
2. Reception and Warning Signals:
Buy Signal: When MVRVZ falls below the -0.255 threshold value, the indicator gives a "Buy" signal. This indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued and may be a buying opportunity.
Warning Signal: A warning signal turns on when MVRVZ exceeds the threshold value of 2.765. This indicates that the market is approaching saturation and caution is warranted.
3. Tracking the Highest MVRVZ Value:
The indicator records the highest MVRVZ value in the last 10 candlesticks. This value is used to determine whether the market has reached its highest risk levels.
4. Warning Display:
If the MVRVZ value matches the highest value in the last 10 bars and this warning has not been displayed before, a "Warning" signal is displayed.
Once the warning signal is shown, no further warnings are shown for 10 candles.
5. Pi Cycle Top Indicator:
Pi Cycle Top: This indicator predicts Bitcoin tops by comparing two moving averages (350-day and 111-day). If the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, this is considered a sell signal.
The indicator displays this signal with the label "Sell", indicating a potential market top.
User Guide:
Green Buy Signal: It means Bitcoin is cheap and offers a buying opportunity.
Yellow Warning Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached possible profit taking points and caution should be exercised.
Red Sell Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached market saturation and it may be appropriate to sell.
HMA Smoothed RSI [Pinescriptlabs]This indicator uses a modified version of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) weighted by volume. This means it not only takes into account the price but also the amount of volume supporting those price movements, making the indicator more sensitive to real market fluctuations.
Hull Moving Average (HMA) Applied to RSI: To smooth the volume-weighted RSI, a Hull Moving Average (HMA) is applied. The HMA is known for its ability to reduce market "noise" and quickly react to trend changes. This process helps better identify when an asset is overbought or oversold.
Overbought and Oversold Regions: The indicator sets clear overbought and oversold levels, which are adjustable. By default, the overbought level is set at 20 and the oversold level at -20, but you can customize these values. Additionally, there are extreme overbought and oversold levels to help identify more extreme market conditions where a price reversal is more likely.
Buy and Sell Signals:
Buy Signal: This is generated when the modified RSI crosses above the oversold level. This indicates that the price has dropped enough and may be about to rise.
Sell Signal: This occurs when the RSI crosses below the overbought level. This suggests that the price has risen too much and could be about to fall.
Dynamic Visualization and Colors: The indicator is displayed with different colors based on its behavior:
When the RSI is within normal levels, the color is neutral.
If it is above the overbought level, the color turns red (sell alert).
If it is below the oversold level, the color turns green (buy alert).
Alerts: This indicator also allows you to set up alerts. You will receive automatic notifications when buy or sell signals are generated, helping you make decisions without constantly monitoring the chart.
Español:
Este indicador utiliza una versión modificada del RSI (Índice de Fuerza Relativa), ponderado por volumen. Esto significa que no solo tiene en cuenta el precio, sino también la cantidad de volumen que respalda esos movimientos de precios, haciendo que el indicador sea más sensible a las fluctuaciones reales del mercado.
Media Móvil Hull (HMA) aplicada al RSI: Para suavizar el RSI ponderado por volumen, se le aplica una Media Móvil Hull (HMA). La HMA es conocida por su capacidad para reducir el "ruido" del mercado y reaccionar rápidamente a los cambios de tendencia. Este proceso ayuda a identificar mejor cuándo un activo está sobrecomprado o sobrevendido.
Regiones de sobrecompra y sobreventa: El indicador establece niveles claros de sobrecompra y sobreventa que son ajustables. Por defecto, el nivel de sobrecompra está en 20 y el de sobreventa en -20, pero puedes personalizar estos valores. Además, hay niveles extremos de sobrecompra y sobreventa que te ayudan a identificar condiciones más extremas del mercado, donde una reversión de precio es más probable.
Señales de compra y venta:
Señal de compra: Se genera cuando el RSI modificado cruza hacia arriba el nivel de sobreventa. Esto indica que el precio ha bajado lo suficiente y puede estar a punto de subir.
Señal de venta: Se produce cuando el RSI cruza hacia abajo el nivel de sobrecompra. Esto indica que el precio ha subido demasiado y podría estar a punto de bajar.
Visualización y colores dinámicos: El indicador se muestra con diferentes colores según su comportamiento:
Cuando el RSI está dentro de los niveles normales, el color es neutro.
Si está por encima del nivel de sobrecompra, el color se vuelve rojo (señal de alerta de venta).
Si está por debajo del nivel de sobreventa, el color se vuelve verde (señal de alerta de compra).
Alertas: Este indicador también te permite configurar alertas. Así, recibirás notificaciones automáticas cuando se generen señales de compra o venta, ayudándote a tomar decisiones sin estar constantemente monitoreando el gráfico.
Ultra High/LowThe Ultra High/Low script helps traders track key price levels by automatically marking significant highs and lows on a chart, highlighting potential reversal points for future trading decisions.
Introduction
The Ultra High/Low script identifies and marks significant highs and lows on a trading chart. These are specific points where the price reached a peak or bottomed out before reversing. The script draws lines at these levels, which can be extended, and it also labels the exact price at these points. This makes it easy for traders to see where the price has changed direction previously, helping them make more informed trading decisions.
Detailed Description
In more detail, the Ultra High/Low script is designed using Pine Script™, a programming language used for creating custom indicators and strategies on the TradingView platform. Here's how it works:
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Detection of Pivot Highs and Lows
The script identifies "pivot highs" and "pivot lows." These are points on the chart where the price reached a local maximum or minimum, surrounded by lower highs (for pivot highs) or higher lows (for pivot lows).
The user can customize how many bars to the left and right of the high or low the script should consider to confirm a pivot (Length argument in the settings).
The script uses Pine Script functions for pivot detection. ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() .
......
Drawing Lines and Labels
Once a pivot is identified, the script draws a dashed line from the pivot point to the current price bar. This line helps visualize where significant price reversals have occurred.
The script also adds a label next to these lines showing the exact price of the pivot point. This label also shows "PDH" (Previous Day High) or "PDL" (Previous Day Low) if the pivot is PDH or PDL. Same for "PWH" (Previous Week High) and "PWL" (Previous Week Low).
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Purging and Extending Lines
If the price crosses a pivot line after it has been drawn, the script can either delete the old line (purged line) or keep it and add additional indicators to show that the line has been liquidated.
The script also has options to extend the lines into the right.
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Custom Inputs
The script offers several customizable options, like the color of the lines and labels, whether to show the exact price or not, and whether to extend the lines. This allows traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs and preferences.
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Overall, the Ultra High/Low script is a powerful visual aid for identifying critical price levels that may influence future price movements, making it easier for traders to make decisions based on historical price behavior.
Saral Relative StrengthRelative Strength Indicator
### Overview
The Relative Strength (RS) Indicator is a robust tool designed to measure the performance of a security relative to a benchmark or another security. Unlike traditional indicators, this RS Indicator calculates the outperformance or underperformance in percentage terms, providing a clear and concise comparison.
The equation for calculation can be found in the code itself. This equation compares how much a security's price has changed over a given period (len) relative to the change in price of a benchmark over the same period. The result is expressed as a percentage, showing whether the security has outperformed or underperformed the benchmark. A positive RS value indicates outperformance, while a negative value signals underperformance.
Basically, this indicator is an enhanced version of 'Relative Strength' indicator of 'BharatTrader' Sir with added features like automatic divergence plotting, color-coded filled area and sector names for NSE F&O securities. Default values for some of the parameters are based on discussion by Subhadip Nandy Sir in Trader's Talk with Mr. Rohit Katwal.
### Input Parameters:
Source: The price of a security used in the calculation, with the default being the 'close' price.
Comparative Symbol: Ticker ID of the comparative security, with the default set to NIFTY 50.
Period-RS: The period for calculating the RS line, with a default of 22. The RS line measures the relative performance of the security against the benchmark, helping to identify outperformance or underperformance over time.
Period-MA: The period for calculating the Simple Moving Average (SMA) overlay on the RS line, with a default of 11. The SMA provides a smoothed view of the RS line, helping to identify trends more clearly.
Lookback - Zero Line Trend: Zero Line Trend look-back period, used to determine the angle of the RS line, with a default of 5. This parameter influences the color of the Zero Line based on whether the RS line’s angle is positive or negative.
Lookback - Divergence: Divergence look-back period, with a default of 2, used to detect divergence between the price and the RS line.
Display MA Line: Controls the display of the SMA line. When enabled, the SMA line is plotted over the RS line to indicate trend strength.
Toggle RS Color on MA Crossovers: Controls the color of the RS line. If disabled, the RS line is purple. If enabled, the RS line changes color based on its position relative to the SMA: green for RS > MA, red for RS < MA.
Display Zero Line Trend: Controls the display of the Zero Line. If disabled, the Zero Line is black. If enabled, the Zero Line’s color changes to green or maroon based on the RS line’s angle over time.
Display Divergence: Controls the display of divergence dots on the RS line, indicating potential reversal points.
Display Filled Area: Controls whether the area between the Zero Line and the RS line is filled with color. The fill color changes based on the relationship of the RS line with the SMA & Zero Line as given below.
- Dark Green: RS > 0 and RS > MA, indicating strong outperformance.
- Light Green: RS > 0 and RS < MA, indicating weakening outperformance.
- Dark Red: RS < 0 and RS < MA, indicating strong underperformance.
- Light Red: RS < 0 and RS > MA, indicating weakening underperformance.
Display Sector Name: Controls the display of sector names for NSE F&O securities, helping to plot RS with sectoral indices.
### Key Features:
RS Line:
The RS line represents the relative performance of a security against a benchmark over a specified period (default 22). It helps traders identify whether the security is outperforming or underperforming the benchmark.
SMA Overlay:
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) line is plotted over the RS line, with a default period of 11. The SMA provides a smoothed trend of the RS, making it easier to identify consistent performance trends.
Trend-Sensitive Zero Line:
The Zero Line’s color adapts based on the RS line’s trend:
- Green: Positive angle of the RS line, indicating upward momentum.
- Maroon: Negative angle, indicating downward momentum.
The color can be toggled, with an option to display the Zero Line in black.
Divergence Detection:
Automatically detects and highlights divergences.
- Positive Divergence: RS line rises while the price falls, marked by blue dots.
- Negative Divergence: RS line falls while the price rises, marked by black dots.
Color-Coded Fill Area:
The area between the RS line and the Zero Line is filled with color to visually distinguish different market conditions, with Dark and Light colors providing insight into the strength of the performance:
- Dark Green: Indicates strong outperformance (RS > 0 and RS > MA), suggesting the security is showing significant strength compared to the benchmark.
- Light Green: Indicates weakening outperformance (RS > 0 and RS < MA), signaling that while the security is still outperforming, its strength is diminishing.
- Dark Red: Indicates strong underperformance (RS < 0 and RS < MA), showing the security is significantly weaker than the benchmark.
- Light Red: Indicates weakening underperformance (RS < 0 and RS > MA), suggesting the security is still underperforming but may be regaining some strength.
Sectoral Strength:
Displays sector names for NSE F&O securities, helping users to compare the RS of individual securities with their respective sectoral indices. Comparative Security can be changed easily based on this sector name. Users need not to remember sector names for individual securities.
If any security is not categorized in a specific sector, CNX500 has been considered as a default sector for NSE F&O securities. For other securities, NIFTY50 has been considered as a default sector.
