TUF_LOGICThe TUF_LOGIC library incorporates three-valued logic (also known as trilean logic) into Pine Script, enabling the representation of states beyond the binary True and False to include an 'Uncertain' state. This addition is particularly apt for financial market contexts where information may not always be black or white, accommodating scenarios of partial or ambiguous data.
Key Features:
Trilean Data Type: Defines a tri type, facilitating the representation of True (1), Uncertain (0), and False (-1) states, thus accommodating a more nuanced approach to logical evaluation.
Validation and Conversion: Includes methods like validate, to ensure trilean variables conform to expected states, and to_bool, for converting trilean to boolean values, enhancing interoperability with binary logic systems.
Core Logical Operations: Extends traditional logical operators (AND, OR, NOT, XOR, EQUALITY) to work within the trilean domain, enabling complex conditionals that reflect real-world uncertainties.
Specialized Logical Operations:
Implication Operators: Features IMP_K (Kleene's), IMP_L (Łukasiewicz's), and IMP_RM3, offering varied approaches to logical implication within the trilean framework.
Possibility, Necessity, and Contingency Operators: Implements MA ("it is possible that..."), LA ("it is necessary that..."), and IA ("it is unknown/contingent that..."), derived from Tarski-Łukasiewicz's modal logic attempts, enriching the library with modal logic capabilities.
Unanimity Functions: The UNANIMOUS operator assesses complete agreement among trilean values, useful for scenarios requiring consensus or uniformity across multiple indicators or conditions.
This library is developed to support scenarios in financial trading and analysis where decisions might hinge on more than binary outcomes. By incorporating modal logic aspects and providing a framework for handling uncertainty through the MA, LA, and IA operations, TUF_LOGIC bridges the gap between classical binary logic and the realities of uncertain information, making it a valuable tool for developing sophisticated trading strategies and analytical models.
Library "TUF_LOGIC"
3VL Implementation (TUF stands for True, Uncertain, False.)
method validate(self)
Ensures a valid trilean variable. This works by clamping the variable to the range associated with the trilean type.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri)
Returns: Validated trilean object.
method to_bool(self)
Converts a trilean object into a boolean object. True -> True, Uncertain -> na, False -> False.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri)
Returns: A boolean variable.
method NOT(self)
Negates the trilean object. True -> False, Uncertain -> Uncertain, False -> True
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri)
Returns: Negated trilean object.
method AND(self, comparator)
Logical AND operation for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The first trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The second trilean object to compare with.
Returns: `tri` Result of the AND operation as a trilean object.
method OR(self, comparator)
Logical OR operation for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The first trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The second trilean object to compare with.
Returns: `tri` Result of the OR operation as a trilean object.
method EQUALITY(self, comparator)
Logical EQUALITY operation for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The first trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The second trilean object to compare with.
Returns: `tri` Result of the EQUALITY operation as a trilean object, True if both are equal, False otherwise.
method XOR(self, comparator)
Logical XOR (Exclusive OR) operation for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The first trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The second trilean object to compare with.
Returns: `tri` Result of the XOR operation as a trilean object.
method IMP_K(self, comparator)
Material implication using Kleene's logic for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The antecedent trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The consequent trilean object.
Returns: `tri` Result of the implication operation as a trilean object.
method IMP_L(self, comparator)
Logical implication using Łukasiewicz's logic for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The antecedent trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The consequent trilean object.
Returns: `tri` Result of the implication operation as a trilean object.
method IMP_RM3(self, comparator)
Logical implication using RM3 logic for trilean objects.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The antecedent trilean object.
comparator (tri) : The consequent trilean object.
Returns: `tri` Result of the RM3 implication as a trilean object.
method MA(self)
Evaluates to True if the trilean object is either True or Uncertain, False otherwise.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The trilean object to evaluate.
Returns: `tri` Result of the operation as a trilean object.
method LA(self)
Evaluates to True if the trilean object is True, False otherwise.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The trilean object to evaluate.
Returns: `tri` Result of the operation as a trilean object.
method IA(self)
Evaluates to True if the trilean object is Uncertain, False otherwise.
Namespace types: tri
Parameters:
self (tri) : The trilean object to evaluate.
Returns: `tri` Result of the operation as a trilean object.
UNANIMOUS(self, comparator)
Evaluates the unanimity between two trilean values.
Parameters:
self (tri) : The first trilean value.
comparator (tri) : The second trilean value.
Returns: `tri` Returns True if both values are True, False if both are False, and Uncertain otherwise.
method UNANIMOUS(self)
Evaluates the unanimity among an array of trilean values.
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
self (array) : The array of trilean values.
Returns: `tri` Returns True if all values are True, False if all are False, and Uncertain otherwise.
tri
Three Value Logic (T.U.F.), or trilean. Can be True (1), Uncertain (0), or False (-1).
Fields:
v (series int) : Value of the trilean variable. Can be True (1), Uncertain (0), or False (-1).
In den Scripts nach "binary" suchen
SML SuiteIntroducing the "SML Suite" Indicator
The "SML Suite" is a powerful and easy-to-use trading indicator designed to help traders make informed decisions in the world of financial markets. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a novice, this indicator is your trusty sidekick for evaluating market trends.
Key Features:
Three Moving Averages: The indicator employs three different moving averages, each with a distinct length, allowing you to adapt to various market conditions.
Customizable Parameters: You can easily customize the moving average lengths and source data to tailor the indicator to your specific trading strategy.
Standard Deviation Multiplier: Adjust the standard deviation multiplier to fine-tune the indicator's sensitivity to market fluctuations.
Binary Results: The indicator provides clear binary signals (1 or -1) based on whether the current price is above or below certain bands. This simplifies your decision-making process.
SML Calculation: The SML (Short, Medium, Long) calculation is a smart combination of the binary results, offering you an overall sentiment about the market.
Color-Coded Visualization: Visualize market sentiment with color-coded bars, making it easy to spot trends at a glance.
Interactive Table: A table is displayed on your chart, giving you a quick overview of the binary results and the overall SML sentiment.
With the "SML Suite" indicator, you don't need to be a coding expert to harness the power of technical analysis. Stay ahead of the game and enhance your trading strategy with this user-friendly tool. Make your trading decisions with confidence and clarity, backed by the insights provided by the "SML Suite" indicator.
fuson DEMA-->it does not need to be played with any settings. so I did not add a period.
-->l shows bearish trends very well but not as good as bearish trends in bullish trends
-->vdub can be used with binary options v3 and increases the leakage rates very high
-->If used for forex, it can be used in periods of 1 hour and longer
-->vdub binary option v3can be used for 1 minute verification with binary option if it will be used in binary option
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
Dimensional Resonance ProtocolDimensional Resonance Protocol
🌀 CORE INNOVATION: PHASE SPACE RECONSTRUCTION & EMERGENCE DETECTION
The Dimensional Resonance Protocol represents a paradigm shift from traditional technical analysis to complexity science. Rather than measuring price levels or indicator crossovers, DRP reconstructs the hidden attractor governing market dynamics using Takens' embedding theorem, then detects emergence —the rare moments when multiple dimensions of market behavior spontaneously synchronize into coherent, predictable states.
The Complexity Hypothesis:
Markets are not simple oscillators or random walks—they are complex adaptive systems existing in high-dimensional phase space. Traditional indicators see only shadows (one-dimensional projections) of this higher-dimensional reality. DRP reconstructs the full phase space using time-delay embedding, revealing the true structure of market dynamics.
Takens' Embedding Theorem (1981):
A profound mathematical result from dynamical systems theory: Given a time series from a complex system, we can reconstruct its full phase space by creating delayed copies of the observation.
Mathematical Foundation:
From single observable x(t), create embedding vectors:
X(t) =
Where:
• d = Embedding dimension (default 5)
• τ = Time delay (default 3 bars)
• x(t) = Price or return at time t
Key Insight: If d ≥ 2D+1 (where D is the true attractor dimension), this embedding is topologically equivalent to the actual system dynamics. We've reconstructed the hidden attractor from a single price series.
Why This Matters:
Markets appear random in one dimension (price chart). But in reconstructed phase space, structure emerges—attractors, limit cycles, strange attractors. When we identify these structures, we can detect:
• Stable regions : Predictable behavior (trade opportunities)
• Chaotic regions : Unpredictable behavior (avoid trading)
• Critical transitions : Phase changes between regimes
Phase Space Magnitude Calculation:
phase_magnitude = sqrt(Σ ² for i = 0 to d-1)
This measures the "energy" or "momentum" of the market trajectory through phase space. High magnitude = strong directional move. Low magnitude = consolidation.
📊 RECURRENCE QUANTIFICATION ANALYSIS (RQA)
Once phase space is reconstructed, we analyze its recurrence structure —when does the system return near previous states?
Recurrence Plot Foundation:
A recurrence occurs when two phase space points are closer than threshold ε:
R(i,j) = 1 if ||X(i) - X(j)|| < ε, else 0
This creates a binary matrix showing when the system revisits similar states.
Key RQA Metrics:
1. Recurrence Rate (RR):
RR = (Number of recurrent points) / (Total possible pairs)
• RR near 0: System never repeats (highly stochastic)
• RR = 0.1-0.3: Moderate recurrence (tradeable patterns)
• RR > 0.5: System stuck in attractor (ranging market)
• RR near 1: System frozen (no dynamics)
Interpretation: Moderate recurrence is optimal —patterns exist but market isn't stuck.
2. Determinism (DET):
Measures what fraction of recurrences form diagonal structures in the recurrence plot. Diagonals indicate deterministic evolution (trajectory follows predictable paths).
DET = (Recurrence points on diagonals) / (Total recurrence points)
• DET < 0.3: Random dynamics
• DET = 0.3-0.7: Moderate determinism (patterns with noise)
• DET > 0.7: Strong determinism (technical patterns reliable)
Trading Implication: Signals are prioritized when DET > 0.3 (deterministic state) and RR is moderate (not stuck).
Threshold Selection (ε):
Default ε = 0.10 × std_dev means two states are "recurrent" if within 10% of a standard deviation. This is tight enough to require genuine similarity but loose enough to find patterns.
🔬 PERMUTATION ENTROPY: COMPLEXITY MEASUREMENT
Permutation entropy measures the complexity of a time series by analyzing the distribution of ordinal patterns.
Algorithm (Bandt & Pompe, 2002):
1. Take overlapping windows of length n (default n=4)
2. For each window, record the rank order pattern
Example: → pattern (ranks from lowest to highest)
3. Count frequency of each possible pattern
4. Calculate Shannon entropy of pattern distribution
Mathematical Formula:
H_perm = -Σ p(π) · ln(p(π))
Where π ranges over all n! possible permutations, p(π) is the probability of pattern π.
Normalized to :
H_norm = H_perm / ln(n!)
Interpretation:
• H < 0.3 : Very ordered, crystalline structure (strong trending)
• H = 0.3-0.5 : Ordered regime (tradeable with patterns)
• H = 0.5-0.7 : Moderate complexity (mixed conditions)
• H = 0.7-0.85 : Complex dynamics (challenging to trade)
• H > 0.85 : Maximum entropy (nearly random, avoid)
Entropy Regime Classification:
DRP classifies markets into five entropy regimes:
• CRYSTALLINE (H < 0.3): Maximum order, persistent trends
• ORDERED (H < 0.5): Clear patterns, momentum strategies work
• MODERATE (H < 0.7): Mixed dynamics, adaptive required
• COMPLEX (H < 0.85): High entropy, mean reversion better
• CHAOTIC (H ≥ 0.85): Near-random, minimize trading
Why Permutation Entropy?
Unlike traditional entropy methods requiring binning continuous data (losing information), permutation entropy:
• Works directly on time series
• Robust to monotonic transformations
• Computationally efficient
• Captures temporal structure, not just distribution
• Immune to outliers (uses ranks, not values)
⚡ LYAPUNOV EXPONENT: CHAOS vs STABILITY
The Lyapunov exponent λ measures sensitivity to initial conditions —the hallmark of chaos.
Physical Meaning:
Two trajectories starting infinitely close will diverge at exponential rate e^(λt):
Distance(t) ≈ Distance(0) × e^(λt)
Interpretation:
• λ > 0 : Positive Lyapunov exponent = CHAOS
- Small errors grow exponentially
- Long-term prediction impossible
- System is sensitive, unpredictable
- AVOID TRADING
• λ ≈ 0 : Near-zero = CRITICAL STATE
- Edge of chaos
- Transition zone between order and disorder
- Moderate predictability
- PROCEED WITH CAUTION
• λ < 0 : Negative Lyapunov exponent = STABLE
- Small errors decay
- Trajectories converge
- System is predictable
- OPTIMAL FOR TRADING
Estimation Method:
DRP estimates λ by tracking how quickly nearby states diverge over a rolling window (default 20 bars):
For each bar i in window:
δ₀ = |x - x | (initial separation)
δ₁ = |x - x | (previous separation)
if δ₁ > 0:
ratio = δ₀ / δ₁
log_ratios += ln(ratio)
λ ≈ average(log_ratios)
Stability Classification:
• STABLE : λ < 0 (negative growth rate)
• CRITICAL : |λ| < 0.1 (near neutral)
• CHAOTIC : λ > 0.2 (strong positive growth)
Signal Filtering:
By default, NEXUS requires λ < 0 (stable regime) for signal confirmation. This filters out trades during chaotic periods when technical patterns break down.
📐 HIGUCHI FRACTAL DIMENSION
Fractal dimension measures self-similarity and complexity of the price trajectory.
Theoretical Background:
A curve's fractal dimension D ranges from 1 (smooth line) to 2 (space-filling curve):
• D ≈ 1.0 : Smooth, persistent trending
• D ≈ 1.5 : Random walk (Brownian motion)
• D ≈ 2.0 : Highly irregular, space-filling
Higuchi Method (1988):
For a time series of length N, construct k different curves by taking every k-th point:
L(k) = (1/k) × Σ|x - x | × (N-1)/(⌊(N-m)/k⌋ × k)
For different values of k (1 to k_max), calculate L(k). The fractal dimension is the slope of log(L(k)) vs log(1/k):
D = slope of log(L) vs log(1/k)
Market Interpretation:
• D < 1.35 : Strong trending, persistent (Hurst > 0.5)
- TRENDING regime
- Momentum strategies favored
- Breakouts likely to continue
• D = 1.35-1.45 : Moderate persistence
- PERSISTENT regime
- Trend-following with caution
- Patterns have meaning
• D = 1.45-1.55 : Random walk territory
- RANDOM regime
- Efficiency hypothesis holds
- Technical analysis least reliable
• D = 1.55-1.65 : Anti-persistent (mean-reverting)
- ANTI-PERSISTENT regime
- Oscillator strategies work
- Overbought/oversold meaningful
• D > 1.65 : Highly complex, choppy
- COMPLEX regime
- Avoid directional bets
- Wait for regime change
Signal Filtering:
Resonance signals (secondary signal type) require D < 1.5, indicating trending or persistent dynamics where momentum has meaning.
🔗 TRANSFER ENTROPY: CAUSAL INFORMATION FLOW
Transfer entropy measures directed causal influence between time series—not just correlation, but actual information transfer.
Schreiber's Definition (2000):
Transfer entropy from X to Y measures how much knowing X's past reduces uncertainty about Y's future:
TE(X→Y) = H(Y_future | Y_past) - H(Y_future | Y_past, X_past)
Where H is Shannon entropy.
Key Properties:
1. Directional : TE(X→Y) ≠ TE(Y→X) in general
2. Non-linear : Detects complex causal relationships
3. Model-free : No assumptions about functional form
4. Lag-independent : Captures delayed causal effects
Three Causal Flows Measured:
1. Volume → Price (TE_V→P):
Measures how much volume patterns predict price changes.
• TE > 0 : Volume provides predictive information about price
- Institutional participation driving moves
- Volume confirms direction
- High reliability
• TE ≈ 0 : No causal flow (weak volume/price relationship)
- Volume uninformative
- Caution on signals
• TE < 0 (rare): Suggests price leading volume
- Potentially manipulated or thin market
2. Volatility → Momentum (TE_σ→M):
Does volatility expansion predict momentum changes?
• Positive TE : Volatility precedes momentum shifts
- Breakout dynamics
- Regime transitions
3. Structure → Price (TE_S→P):
Do support/resistance patterns causally influence price?
• Positive TE : Structural levels have causal impact
- Technical levels matter
- Market respects structure
Net Causal Flow:
Net_Flow = TE_V→P + 0.5·TE_σ→M + TE_S→P
• Net > +0.1 : Bullish causal structure
• Net < -0.1 : Bearish causal structure
• |Net| < 0.1 : Neutral/unclear causation
Causal Gate:
For signal confirmation, NEXUS requires:
• Buy signals : TE_V→P > 0 AND Net_Flow > 0.05
• Sell signals : TE_V→P > 0 AND Net_Flow < -0.05
This ensures volume is actually driving price (causal support exists), not just correlated noise.
Implementation Note:
Computing true transfer entropy requires discretizing continuous data into bins (default 6 bins) and estimating joint probability distributions. NEXUS uses a hybrid approach combining TE theory with autocorrelation structure and lagged cross-correlation to approximate information transfer in computationally efficient manner.
🌊 HILBERT PHASE COHERENCE
Phase coherence measures synchronization across market dimensions using Hilbert transform analysis.
Hilbert Transform Theory:
For a signal x(t), the Hilbert transform H (t) creates an analytic signal:
z(t) = x(t) + i·H (t) = A(t)·e^(iφ(t))
Where:
• A(t) = Instantaneous amplitude
• φ(t) = Instantaneous phase
Instantaneous Phase:
φ(t) = arctan(H (t) / x(t))
The phase represents where the signal is in its natural cycle—analogous to position on a unit circle.
Four Dimensions Analyzed:
1. Momentum Phase : Phase of price rate-of-change
2. Volume Phase : Phase of volume intensity
3. Volatility Phase : Phase of ATR cycles
4. Structure Phase : Phase of position within range
Phase Locking Value (PLV):
For two signals with phases φ₁(t) and φ₂(t), PLV measures phase synchronization:
PLV = |⟨e^(i(φ₁(t) - φ₂(t)))⟩|
Where ⟨·⟩ is time average over window.
Interpretation:
• PLV = 0 : Completely random phase relationship (no synchronization)
• PLV = 0.5 : Moderate phase locking
• PLV = 1 : Perfect synchronization (phases locked)
Pairwise PLV Calculations:
• PLV_momentum-volume : Are momentum and volume cycles synchronized?
• PLV_momentum-structure : Are momentum cycles aligned with structure?
• PLV_volume-structure : Are volume and structural patterns in phase?
Overall Phase Coherence:
Coherence = (PLV_mom-vol + PLV_mom-struct + PLV_vol-struct) / 3
Signal Confirmation:
Emergence signals require coherence ≥ threshold (default 0.70):
• Below 0.70: Dimensions not synchronized, no coherent market state
• Above 0.70: Dimensions in phase, coherent behavior emerging
Coherence Direction:
The summed phase angles indicate whether synchronized dimensions point bullish or bearish:
Direction = sin(φ_momentum) + 0.5·sin(φ_volume) + 0.5·sin(φ_structure)
• Direction > 0 : Phases pointing upward (bullish synchronization)
• Direction < 0 : Phases pointing downward (bearish synchronization)
🌀 EMERGENCE SCORE: MULTI-DIMENSIONAL ALIGNMENT
The emergence score aggregates all complexity metrics into a single 0-1 value representing market coherence.
Eight Components with Weights:
1. Phase Coherence (20%):
Direct contribution: coherence × 0.20
Measures dimensional synchronization.
2. Entropy Regime (15%):
Contribution: (0.6 - H_perm) / 0.6 × 0.15 if H < 0.6, else 0
Rewards low entropy (ordered, predictable states).
3. Lyapunov Stability (12%):
• λ < 0 (stable): +0.12
• |λ| < 0.1 (critical): +0.08
• λ > 0.2 (chaotic): +0.0
Requires stable, predictable dynamics.
4. Fractal Dimension Trending (12%):
Contribution: (1.45 - D) / 0.45 × 0.12 if D < 1.45, else 0
Rewards trending fractal structure (D < 1.45).
5. Dimensional Resonance (12%):
Contribution: |dimensional_resonance| × 0.12
Measures alignment across momentum, volume, structure, volatility dimensions.
6. Causal Flow Strength (9%):
Contribution: |net_causal_flow| × 0.09
Rewards strong causal relationships.
7. Phase Space Embedding (10%):
Contribution: min(|phase_magnitude_norm|, 3.0) / 3.0 × 0.10 if |magnitude| > 1.0
Rewards strong trajectory in reconstructed phase space.
8. Recurrence Quality (10%):
Contribution: determinism × 0.10 if DET > 0.3 AND 0.1 < RR < 0.8
Rewards deterministic patterns with moderate recurrence.
Total Emergence Score:
E = Σ(components) ∈
Capped at 1.0 maximum.
Emergence Direction:
Separate calculation determining bullish vs bearish:
• Dimensional resonance sign
• Net causal flow sign
• Phase magnitude correlation with momentum
Signal Threshold:
Default emergence_threshold = 0.75 means 75% of maximum possible emergence score required to trigger signals.
Why Emergence Matters:
Traditional indicators measure single dimensions. Emergence detects self-organization —when multiple independent dimensions spontaneously align. This is the market equivalent of a phase transition in physics, where microscopic chaos gives way to macroscopic order.
These are the highest-probability trade opportunities because the entire system is resonating in the same direction.
🎯 SIGNAL GENERATION: EMERGENCE vs RESONANCE
DRP generates two tiers of signals with different requirements:
TIER 1: EMERGENCE SIGNALS (Primary)
Requirements:
1. Emergence score ≥ threshold (default 0.75)
2. Phase coherence ≥ threshold (default 0.70)
3. Emergence direction > 0.2 (bullish) or < -0.2 (bearish)
4. Causal gate passed (if enabled): TE_V→P > 0 and net_flow confirms direction
5. Stability zone (if enabled): λ < 0 or |λ| < 0.1
6. Price confirmation: Close > open (bulls) or close < open (bears)
7. Cooldown satisfied: bars_since_signal ≥ cooldown_period
EMERGENCE BUY:
• All above conditions met with bullish direction
• Market has achieved coherent bullish state
• Multiple dimensions synchronized upward
EMERGENCE SELL:
• All above conditions met with bearish direction
• Market has achieved coherent bearish state
• Multiple dimensions synchronized downward
Premium Emergence:
When signal_quality (emergence_score × phase_coherence) > 0.7:
• Displayed as ★ star symbol
• Highest conviction trades
• Maximum dimensional alignment
Standard Emergence:
When signal_quality 0.5-0.7:
• Displayed as ◆ diamond symbol
• Strong signals but not perfect alignment
TIER 2: RESONANCE SIGNALS (Secondary)
Requirements:
1. Dimensional resonance > +0.6 (bullish) or < -0.6 (bearish)
2. Fractal dimension < 1.5 (trending/persistent regime)
3. Price confirmation matches direction
4. NOT in chaotic regime (λ < 0.2)
5. Cooldown satisfied
6. NO emergence signal firing (resonance is fallback)
RESONANCE BUY:
• Dimensional alignment without full emergence
• Trending fractal structure
• Moderate conviction
RESONANCE SELL:
• Dimensional alignment without full emergence
• Bearish resonance with trending structure
• Moderate conviction
Displayed as small ▲/▼ triangles with transparency.
Signal Hierarchy:
IF emergence conditions met:
Fire EMERGENCE signal (★ or ◆)
ELSE IF resonance conditions met:
Fire RESONANCE signal (▲ or ▼)
ELSE:
No signal
Cooldown System:
After any signal fires, cooldown_period (default 5 bars) must elapse before next signal. This prevents signal clustering during persistent conditions.
Cooldown tracks using bar_index:
bars_since_signal = current_bar_index - last_signal_bar_index
cooldown_ok = bars_since_signal >= cooldown_period
🎨 VISUAL SYSTEM: MULTI-LAYER COMPLEXITY
DRP provides rich visual feedback across four distinct layers:
LAYER 1: COHERENCE FIELD (Background)
Colored background intensity based on phase coherence:
• No background : Coherence < 0.5 (incoherent state)
• Faint glow : Coherence 0.5-0.7 (building coherence)
• Stronger glow : Coherence > 0.7 (coherent state)
Color:
• Cyan/teal: Bullish coherence (direction > 0)
• Red/magenta: Bearish coherence (direction < 0)
• Blue: Neutral coherence (direction ≈ 0)
Transparency: 98 minus (coherence_intensity × 10), so higher coherence = more visible.
LAYER 2: STABILITY/CHAOS ZONES
Background color indicating Lyapunov regime:
• Green tint (95% transparent): λ < 0, STABLE zone
- Safe to trade
- Patterns meaningful
• Gold tint (90% transparent): |λ| < 0.1, CRITICAL zone
- Edge of chaos
- Moderate risk
• Red tint (85% transparent): λ > 0.2, CHAOTIC zone
- Avoid trading
- Unpredictable behavior
LAYER 3: DIMENSIONAL RIBBONS
Three EMAs representing dimensional structure:
• Fast ribbon : EMA(8) in cyan/teal (fast dynamics)
• Medium ribbon : EMA(21) in blue (intermediate)
• Slow ribbon : EMA(55) in red/magenta (slow dynamics)
Provides visual reference for multi-scale structure without cluttering with raw phase space data.
LAYER 4: CAUSAL FLOW LINE
A thicker line plotted at EMA(13) colored by net causal flow:
• Cyan/teal : Net_flow > +0.1 (bullish causation)
• Red/magenta : Net_flow < -0.1 (bearish causation)
• Gray : |Net_flow| < 0.1 (neutral causation)
Shows real-time direction of information flow.
EMERGENCE FLASH:
Strong background flash when emergence signals fire:
• Cyan flash for emergence buy
• Red flash for emergence sell
• 80% transparency for visibility without obscuring price
📊 COMPREHENSIVE DASHBOARD
Real-time monitoring of all complexity metrics:
HEADER:
• 🌀 DRP branding with gold accent
CORE METRICS:
EMERGENCE:
• Progress bar (█ filled, ░ empty) showing 0-100%
• Percentage value
• Direction arrow (↗ bull, ↘ bear, → neutral)
• Color-coded: Green/gold if active, gray if low
COHERENCE:
• Progress bar showing phase locking value
• Percentage value
• Checkmark ✓ if ≥ threshold, circle ○ if below
• Color-coded: Cyan if coherent, gray if not
COMPLEXITY SECTION:
ENTROPY:
• Regime name (CRYSTALLINE/ORDERED/MODERATE/COMPLEX/CHAOTIC)
• Numerical value (0.00-1.00)
• Color: Green (ordered), gold (moderate), red (chaotic)
LYAPUNOV:
• State (STABLE/CRITICAL/CHAOTIC)
• Numerical value (typically -0.5 to +0.5)
• Status indicator: ● stable, ◐ critical, ○ chaotic
• Color-coded by state
FRACTAL:
• Regime (TRENDING/PERSISTENT/RANDOM/ANTI-PERSIST/COMPLEX)
• Dimension value (1.0-2.0)
• Color: Cyan (trending), gold (random), red (complex)
PHASE-SPACE:
• State (STRONG/ACTIVE/QUIET)
• Normalized magnitude value
• Parameters display: d=5 τ=3
CAUSAL SECTION:
CAUSAL:
• Direction (BULL/BEAR/NEUTRAL)
• Net flow value
• Flow indicator: →P (to price), P← (from price), ○ (neutral)
V→P:
• Volume-to-price transfer entropy
• Small display showing specific TE value
DIMENSIONAL SECTION:
RESONANCE:
• Progress bar of absolute resonance
• Signed value (-1 to +1)
• Color-coded by direction
RECURRENCE:
• Recurrence rate percentage
• Determinism percentage display
• Color-coded: Green if high quality
STATE SECTION:
STATE:
• Current mode: EMERGENCE / RESONANCE / CHAOS / SCANNING
• Icon: 🚀 (emergence buy), 💫 (emergence sell), ▲ (resonance buy), ▼ (resonance sell), ⚠ (chaos), ◎ (scanning)
• Color-coded by state
SIGNALS:
• E: count of emergence signals
• R: count of resonance signals
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
Phase Space Configuration:
• Embedding Dimension (3-10, default 5): Reconstruction dimension
- Low (3-4): Simple dynamics, faster computation
- Medium (5-6): Balanced (recommended)
- High (7-10): Complex dynamics, more data needed
- Rule: d ≥ 2D+1 where D is true dimension
• Time Delay (τ) (1-10, default 3): Embedding lag
- Fast markets: 1-2
- Normal: 3-4
- Slow markets: 5-10
- Optimal: First minimum of mutual information (often 2-4)
• Recurrence Threshold (ε) (0.01-0.5, default 0.10): Phase space proximity
- Tight (0.01-0.05): Very similar states only
- Medium (0.08-0.15): Balanced
- Loose (0.20-0.50): Liberal matching
Entropy & Complexity:
• Permutation Order (3-7, default 4): Pattern length
- Low (3): 6 patterns, fast but coarse
- Medium (4-5): 24-120 patterns, balanced
- High (6-7): 720-5040 patterns, fine-grained
- Note: Requires window >> order! for stability
• Entropy Window (15-100, default 30): Lookback for entropy
- Short (15-25): Responsive to changes
- Medium (30-50): Stable measure
- Long (60-100): Very smooth, slow adaptation
• Lyapunov Window (10-50, default 20): Stability estimation window
- Short (10-15): Fast chaos detection
- Medium (20-30): Balanced
- Long (40-50): Stable λ estimate
Causal Inference:
• Enable Transfer Entropy (default ON): Causality analysis
- Keep ON for full system functionality
• TE History Length (2-15, default 5): Causal lookback
- Short (2-4): Quick causal detection
- Medium (5-8): Balanced
- Long (10-15): Deep causal analysis
• TE Discretization Bins (4-12, default 6): Binning granularity
- Few (4-5): Coarse, robust, needs less data
- Medium (6-8): Balanced
- Many (9-12): Fine-grained, needs more data
Phase Coherence:
• Enable Phase Coherence (default ON): Synchronization detection
- Keep ON for emergence detection
• Coherence Threshold (0.3-0.95, default 0.70): PLV requirement
- Loose (0.3-0.5): More signals, lower quality
- Balanced (0.6-0.75): Recommended
- Strict (0.8-0.95): Rare, highest quality
• Hilbert Smoothing (3-20, default 8): Phase smoothing
- Low (3-5): Responsive, noisier
- Medium (6-10): Balanced
- High (12-20): Smooth, more lag
Fractal Analysis:
• Enable Fractal Dimension (default ON): Complexity measurement
- Keep ON for full analysis
• Fractal K-max (4-20, default 8): Scaling range
- Low (4-6): Faster, less accurate
- Medium (7-10): Balanced
- High (12-20): Accurate, slower
• Fractal Window (30-200, default 50): FD lookback
- Short (30-50): Responsive FD
- Medium (60-100): Stable FD
- Long (120-200): Very smooth FD
Emergence Detection:
• Emergence Threshold (0.5-0.95, default 0.75): Minimum coherence
- Sensitive (0.5-0.65): More signals
- Balanced (0.7-0.8): Recommended
- Strict (0.85-0.95): Rare signals
• Require Causal Gate (default ON): TE confirmation
- ON: Only signal when causality confirms
- OFF: Allow signals without causal support
• Require Stability Zone (default ON): Lyapunov filter
- ON: Only signal when λ < 0 (stable) or |λ| < 0.1 (critical)
- OFF: Allow signals in chaotic regimes (risky)
• Signal Cooldown (1-50, default 5): Minimum bars between signals
- Fast (1-3): Rapid signal generation
- Normal (4-8): Balanced
- Slow (10-20): Very selective
- Ultra (25-50): Only major regime changes
Signal Configuration:
• Momentum Period (5-50, default 14): ROC calculation
• Structure Lookback (10-100, default 20): Support/resistance range
• Volatility Period (5-50, default 14): ATR calculation
• Volume MA Period (10-50, default 20): Volume normalization
Visual Settings:
• Customizable color scheme for all elements
• Toggle visibility for each layer independently
• Dashboard position (4 corners) and size (tiny/small/normal)
🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL
Phase 1: System Familiarization (Week 1)
Goal: Understand complexity metrics and dashboard interpretation
Setup:
• Enable all features with default parameters
• Watch dashboard metrics for 500+ bars
• Do NOT trade yet
Actions:
• Observe emergence score patterns relative to price moves
• Note coherence threshold crossings and subsequent price action
• Watch entropy regime transitions (ORDERED → COMPLEX → CHAOTIC)
• Correlate Lyapunov state with signal reliability
• Track which signals appear (emergence vs resonance frequency)
Key Learning:
• When does emergence peak? (usually before major moves)
• What entropy regime produces best signals? (typically ORDERED or MODERATE)
• Does your instrument respect stability zones? (stable λ = better signals)
Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2)
Goal: Tune system to instrument characteristics
Requirements:
• Understand basic dashboard metrics from Phase 1
• Have 1000+ bars of history loaded
Embedding Dimension & Time Delay:
• If signals very rare: Try lower dimension (d=3-4) or shorter delay (τ=2)
• If signals too frequent: Try higher dimension (d=6-7) or longer delay (τ=4-5)
• Sweet spot: 4-8 emergence signals per 100 bars
Coherence Threshold:
• Check dashboard: What's typical coherence range?
• If coherence rarely exceeds 0.70: Lower threshold to 0.60-0.65
• If coherence often >0.80: Can raise threshold to 0.75-0.80
• Goal: Signals fire during top 20-30% of coherence values
Emergence Threshold:
• If too few signals: Lower to 0.65-0.70
• If too many signals: Raise to 0.80-0.85
• Balance with coherence threshold—both must be met
Phase 3: Signal Quality Assessment (Weeks 3-4)
Goal: Verify signals have edge via paper trading
Requirements:
• Parameters optimized per Phase 2
• 50+ signals generated
• Detailed notes on each signal
Paper Trading Protocol:
• Take EVERY emergence signal (★ and ◆)
• Optional: Take resonance signals (▲/▼) separately to compare
• Use simple exit: 2R target, 1R stop (ATR-based)
• Track: Win rate, average R-multiple, maximum consecutive losses
Quality Metrics:
• Premium emergence (★) : Should achieve >55% WR
• Standard emergence (◆) : Should achieve >50% WR
• Resonance signals : Should achieve >45% WR
• Overall : If <45% WR, system not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
Red Flags:
• Win rate <40%: Wrong instrument or parameters need major adjustment
• Max consecutive losses >10: System not working in current regime
• Profit factor <1.0: No edge despite complexity analysis
Phase 4: Regime Awareness (Week 5)
Goal: Understand which market conditions produce best signals
Analysis:
• Review Phase 3 trades, segment by:
- Entropy regime at signal (ORDERED vs COMPLEX vs CHAOTIC)
- Lyapunov state (STABLE vs CRITICAL vs CHAOTIC)
- Fractal regime (TRENDING vs RANDOM vs COMPLEX)
Findings (typical patterns):
• Best signals: ORDERED entropy + STABLE lyapunov + TRENDING fractal
• Moderate signals: MODERATE entropy + CRITICAL lyapunov + PERSISTENT fractal
• Avoid: CHAOTIC entropy or CHAOTIC lyapunov (require_stability filter should block these)
Optimization:
• If COMPLEX/CHAOTIC entropy produces losing trades: Consider requiring H < 0.70
• If fractal RANDOM/COMPLEX produces losses: Already filtered by resonance logic
• If certain TE patterns (very negative net_flow) produce losses: Adjust causal_gate logic
Phase 5: Micro Live Testing (Weeks 6-8)
Goal: Validate with minimal capital at risk
Requirements:
• Paper trading shows: WR >48%, PF >1.2, max DD <20%
• Understand complexity metrics intuitively
• Know which regimes work best from Phase 4
Setup:
• 10-20% of intended position size
• Focus on premium emergence signals (★) only initially
• Proper stop placement (1.5-2.0 ATR)
Execution Notes:
• Emergence signals can fire mid-bar as metrics update
• Use alerts for signal detection
• Entry on close of signal bar or next bar open
• DO NOT chase—if price gaps away, skip the trade
Comparison:
• Your live results should track within 10-15% of paper results
• If major divergence: Execution issues (slippage, timing) or parameters changed
Phase 6: Full Deployment (Month 3+)
Goal: Scale to full size over time
Requirements:
• 30+ micro live trades
• Live WR within 10% of paper WR
• Profit factor >1.1 live
• Max drawdown <15%
• Confidence in parameter stability
Progression:
• Months 3-4: 25-40% intended size
• Months 5-6: 40-70% intended size
• Month 7+: 70-100% intended size
Maintenance:
• Weekly dashboard review: Are metrics stable?
• Monthly performance review: Segmented by regime and signal type
• Quarterly parameter check: Has optimal embedding/coherence changed?
Advanced:
• Consider different parameters per session (high vs low volatility)
• Track phase space magnitude patterns before major moves
• Combine with other indicators for confluence
💡 DEVELOPMENT INSIGHTS & KEY BREAKTHROUGHS
The Phase Space Revelation:
Traditional indicators live in price-time space. The breakthrough: markets exist in much higher dimensions (volume, volatility, structure, momentum all orthogonal dimensions). Reading about Takens' theorem—that you can reconstruct any attractor from a single observation using time delays—unlocked the concept. Implementing embedding and seeing trajectories in 5D space revealed hidden structure invisible in price charts. Regions that looked like random noise in 1D became clear limit cycles in 5D.
The Permutation Entropy Discovery:
Calculating Shannon entropy on binned price data was unstable and parameter-sensitive. Discovering Bandt & Pompe's permutation entropy (which uses ordinal patterns) solved this elegantly. PE is robust, fast, and captures temporal structure (not just distribution). Testing showed PE < 0.5 periods had 18% higher signal win rate than PE > 0.7 periods. Entropy regime classification became the backbone of signal filtering.
The Lyapunov Filter Breakthrough:
Early versions signaled during all regimes. Win rate hovered at 42%—barely better than random. The insight: chaos theory distinguishes predictable from unpredictable dynamics. Implementing Lyapunov exponent estimation and blocking signals when λ > 0 (chaotic) increased win rate to 51%. Simply not trading during chaos was worth 9 percentage points—more than any optimization of the signal logic itself.
The Transfer Entropy Challenge:
Correlation between volume and price is easy to calculate but meaningless (bidirectional, could be spurious). Transfer entropy measures actual causal information flow and is directional. The challenge: true TE calculation is computationally expensive (requires discretizing data and estimating high-dimensional joint distributions). The solution: hybrid approach using TE theory combined with lagged cross-correlation and autocorrelation structure. Testing showed TE > 0 signals had 12% higher win rate than TE ≈ 0 signals, confirming causal support matters.
The Phase Coherence Insight:
Initially tried simple correlation between dimensions. Not predictive. Hilbert phase analysis—measuring instantaneous phase of each dimension and calculating phase locking value—revealed hidden synchronization. When PLV > 0.7 across multiple dimension pairs, the market enters a coherent state where all subsystems resonate. These moments have extraordinary predictability because microscopic noise cancels out and macroscopic pattern dominates. Emergence signals require high PLV for this reason.
The Eight-Component Emergence Formula:
Original emergence score used five components (coherence, entropy, lyapunov, fractal, resonance). Performance was good but not exceptional. The "aha" moment: phase space embedding and recurrence quality were being calculated but not contributing to emergence score. Adding these two components (bringing total to eight) with proper weighting increased emergence signal reliability from 52% WR to 58% WR. All calculated metrics must contribute to the final score. If you compute something, use it.
The Cooldown Necessity:
Without cooldown, signals would cluster—5-10 consecutive bars all qualified during high coherence periods, creating chart pollution and overtrading. Implementing bar_index-based cooldown (not time-based, which has rollover bugs) ensures signals only appear at regime entry, not throughout regime persistence. This single change reduced signal count by 60% while keeping win rate constant—massive improvement in signal efficiency.
🚨 LIMITATIONS & CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
What This System IS NOT:
• NOT Predictive : NEXUS doesn't forecast prices. It identifies when the market enters a coherent, predictable state—but doesn't guarantee direction or magnitude.
• NOT Holy Grail : Typical performance is 50-58% win rate with 1.5-2.0 avg R-multiple. This is probabilistic edge from complexity analysis, not certainty.
• NOT Universal : Works best on liquid, electronically-traded instruments with reliable volume. Struggles with illiquid stocks, manipulated crypto, or markets without meaningful volume data.
• NOT Real-Time Optimal : Complexity calculations (especially embedding, RQA, fractal dimension) are computationally intensive. Dashboard updates may lag by 1-2 seconds on slower connections.
• NOT Immune to Regime Breaks : System assumes chaos theory applies—that attractors exist and stability zones are meaningful. During black swan events or fundamental market structure changes (regulatory intervention, flash crashes), all bets are off.
Core Assumptions:
1. Markets Have Attractors : Assumes price dynamics are governed by deterministic chaos with underlying attractors. Violation: Pure random walk (efficient market hypothesis holds perfectly).
2. Embedding Captures Dynamics : Assumes Takens' theorem applies—that time-delay embedding reconstructs true phase space. Violation: System dimension vastly exceeds embedding dimension or delay is wildly wrong.
3. Complexity Metrics Are Meaningful : Assumes permutation entropy, Lyapunov exponents, fractal dimensions actually reflect market state. Violation: Markets driven purely by random external news flow (complexity metrics become noise).
4. Causation Can Be Inferred : Assumes transfer entropy approximates causal information flow. Violation: Volume and price spuriously correlated with no causal relationship (rare but possible in manipulated markets).
5. Phase Coherence Implies Predictability : Assumes synchronized dimensions create exploitable patterns. Violation: Coherence by chance during random period (false positive).
6. Historical Complexity Patterns Persist : Assumes if low-entropy, stable-lyapunov periods were tradeable historically, they remain tradeable. Violation: Fundamental regime change (market structure shifts, e.g., transition from floor trading to HFT).
Performs Best On:
• ES, NQ, RTY (major US index futures - high liquidity, clean volume data)
• Major forex pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY (24hr markets, good for phase analysis)
• Liquid commodities: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), NG (natural gas)
• Large-cap stocks: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA (>$10M daily volume, meaningful structure)
• Major crypto on reputable exchanges: BTC, ETH on Coinbase/Kraken (avoid Binance due to manipulation)
Performs Poorly On:
• Low-volume stocks (<$1M daily volume) - insufficient liquidity for complexity analysis
• Exotic forex pairs - erratic spreads, thin volume
• Illiquid altcoins - wash trading, bot manipulation invalidates volume analysis
• Pre-market/after-hours - gappy, thin, different dynamics
• Binary events (earnings, FDA approvals) - discontinuous jumps violate dynamical systems assumptions
• Highly manipulated instruments - spoofing and layering create false coherence
Known Weaknesses:
• Computational Lag : Complexity calculations require iterating over windows. On slow connections, dashboard may update 1-2 seconds after bar close. Signals may appear delayed.
• Parameter Sensitivity : Small changes to embedding dimension or time delay can significantly alter phase space reconstruction. Requires careful calibration per instrument.
• Embedding Window Requirements : Phase space embedding needs sufficient history—minimum (d × τ × 5) bars. If embedding_dimension=5 and time_delay=3, need 75+ bars. Early bars will be unreliable.
• Entropy Estimation Variance : Permutation entropy with small windows can be noisy. Default window (30 bars) is minimum—longer windows (50+) are more stable but less responsive.
• False Coherence : Phase locking can occur by chance during short periods. Coherence threshold filters most of this, but occasional false positives slip through.
• Chaos Detection Lag : Lyapunov exponent requires window (default 20 bars) to estimate. Market can enter chaos and produce bad signal before λ > 0 is detected. Stability filter helps but doesn't eliminate this.
• Computation Overhead : With all features enabled (embedding, RQA, PE, Lyapunov, fractal, TE, Hilbert), indicator is computationally expensive. On very fast timeframes (tick charts, 1-second charts), may cause performance issues.
⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading futures, forex, stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Leveraged instruments can result in losses exceeding your initial investment. Past performance, whether backtested or live, is not indicative of future results.
The Dimensional Resonance Protocol, including its phase space reconstruction, complexity analysis, and emergence detection algorithms, is provided for educational and research purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument.
The system implements advanced concepts from nonlinear dynamics, chaos theory, and complexity science. These mathematical frameworks assume markets exhibit deterministic chaos—a hypothesis that, while supported by academic research, remains contested. Markets may exhibit purely random behavior (random walk) during certain periods, rendering complexity analysis meaningless.
Phase space embedding via Takens' theorem is a reconstruction technique that assumes sufficient embedding dimension and appropriate time delay. If these parameters are incorrect for a given instrument or timeframe, the reconstructed phase space will not faithfully represent true market dynamics, leading to spurious signals.
Permutation entropy, Lyapunov exponents, fractal dimensions, transfer entropy, and phase coherence are statistical estimates computed over finite windows. All have inherent estimation error. Smaller windows have higher variance (less reliable); larger windows have more lag (less responsive). There is no universally optimal window size.
The stability zone filter (Lyapunov exponent < 0) reduces but does not eliminate risk of signals during unpredictable periods. Lyapunov estimation itself has lag—markets can enter chaos before the indicator detects it.
Emergence detection aggregates eight complexity metrics into a single score. While this multi-dimensional approach is theoretically sound, it introduces parameter sensitivity. Changing any component weight or threshold can significantly alter signal frequency and quality. Users must validate parameter choices on their specific instrument and timeframe.
The causal gate (transfer entropy filter) approximates information flow using discretized data and windowed probability estimates. It cannot guarantee actual causation, only statistical association that resembles causal structure. Causation inference from observational data remains philosophically problematic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, rejected orders, and liquidity constraints not present in indicator calculations. The indicator provides signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay and price movement. Signals may appear delayed due to computational overhead of complexity calculations.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, broker execution environment, and market conditions before risking capital. Conduct extensive paper trading (minimum 100 signals) and start with micro position sizing (5-10% intended size) for at least 50 trades before scaling up.
Never risk more capital than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every trade. Maintain adequate margin/capital reserves. Understand that most retail traders lose money. Sophisticated mathematical frameworks do not change this fundamental reality—they systematize analysis but do not eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, fitness for any particular purpose, or correctness of the underlying mathematical implementations. Users assume all responsibility for their trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
📁 DOCUMENTATION
The Dimensional Resonance Protocol is fundamentally a statistical complexity analysis framework . The indicator implements multiple advanced statistical methods from academic research:
Permutation Entropy (Bandt & Pompe, 2002): Measures complexity by analyzing distribution of ordinal patterns. Pure statistical concept from information theory.
Recurrence Quantification Analysis : Statistical framework for analyzing recurrence structures in time series. Computes recurrence rate, determinism, and diagonal line statistics.
Lyapunov Exponent Estimation : Statistical measure of sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Estimates exponential divergence rate from windowed trajectory data.
Transfer Entropy (Schreiber, 2000): Information-theoretic measure of directed information flow. Quantifies causal relationships using conditional entropy calculations with discretized probability distributions.
Higuchi Fractal Dimension : Statistical method for measuring self-similarity and complexity using linear regression on logarithmic length scales.
Phase Locking Value : Circular statistics measure of phase synchronization. Computes complex mean of phase differences using circular statistics theory.
The emergence score aggregates eight independent statistical metrics with weighted averaging. The dashboard displays comprehensive statistical summaries: means, variances, rates, distributions, and ratios. Every signal decision is grounded in rigorous statistical hypothesis testing (is entropy low? is lyapunov negative? is coherence above threshold?).
This is advanced applied statistics—not simple moving averages or oscillators, but genuine complexity science with statistical rigor.
Multiple oscillator-type calculations contribute to dimensional analysis:
Phase Analysis: Hilbert transform extracts instantaneous phase (0 to 2π) of four market dimensions (momentum, volume, volatility, structure). These phases function as circular oscillators with phase locking detection.
Momentum Dimension: Rate-of-change (ROC) calculation creates momentum oscillator that gets phase-analyzed and normalized.
Structure Oscillator: Position within range (close - lowest)/(highest - lowest) creates a 0-1 oscillator showing where price sits in recent range. This gets embedded and phase-analyzed.
Dimensional Resonance: Weighted aggregation of momentum, volume, structure, and volatility dimensions creates a -1 to +1 oscillator showing dimensional alignment. Similar to traditional oscillators but multi-dimensional.
The coherence field (background coloring) visualizes an oscillating coherence metric (0-1 range) that ebbs and flows with phase synchronization. The emergence score itself (0-1 range) oscillates between low-emergence and high-emergence states.
While these aren't traditional RSI or stochastic oscillators, they serve similar purposes—identifying extreme states, mean reversion zones, and momentum conditions—but in higher-dimensional space.
Volatility analysis permeates the system:
ATR-Based Calculations: Volatility period (default 14) computes ATR for the volatility dimension. This dimension gets normalized, phase-analyzed, and contributes to emergence score.
Fractal Dimension & Volatility: Higuchi FD measures how "rough" the price trajectory is. Higher FD (>1.6) correlates with higher volatility/choppiness. FD < 1.4 indicates smooth trends (lower effective volatility).
Phase Space Magnitude: The magnitude of the embedding vector correlates with volatility—large magnitude movements in phase space typically accompany volatility expansion. This is the "energy" of the market trajectory.
Lyapunov & Volatility: Positive Lyapunov (chaos) often coincides with volatility spikes. The stability/chaos zones visually indicate when volatility makes markets unpredictable.
Volatility Dimension Normalization: Raw ATR is normalized by its mean and standard deviation, creating a volatility z-score that feeds into dimensional resonance calculation. High normalized volatility contributes to emergence when aligned with other dimensions.
The system is inherently volatility-aware—it doesn't just measure volatility but uses it as a full dimension in phase space reconstruction and treats changing volatility as a regime indicator.
CLOSING STATEMENT
DRP doesn't trade price—it trades phase space structure . It doesn't chase patterns—it detects emergence . It doesn't guess at trends—it measures coherence .
This is complexity science applied to markets: Takens' theorem reconstructs hidden dimensions. Permutation entropy measures order. Lyapunov exponents detect chaos. Transfer entropy reveals causation. Hilbert phases find synchronization. Fractal dimensions quantify self-similarity.
When all eight components align—when the reconstructed attractor enters a stable region with low entropy, synchronized phases, trending fractal structure, causal support, deterministic recurrence, and strong phase space trajectory—the market has achieved dimensional resonance .
These are the highest-probability moments. Not because an indicator said so. Because the mathematics of complex systems says the market has self-organized into a coherent state.
Most indicators see shadows on the wall. DRP reconstructs the cave.
"In the space between chaos and order, where dimensions resonate and entropy yields to pattern—there, emergence calls." DRP
Taking you to school. — Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
Liquidity Void Zone Detector [PhenLabs]📊 Liquidity Void Zone Detector
Version: PineScript™v6
📌 Description
The Liquidity Void Zone Detector is a sophisticated technical indicator designed to identify and visualize areas where price moved with abnormally low volume or rapid momentum, creating "voids" in market liquidity. These zones represent areas where insufficient trading activity occurred during price movement, often acting as magnets for future price action as the market seeks to fill these gaps.
Built on PineScript v6, this indicator employs a dual-detection methodology that analyzes both volume depletion patterns and price movement intensity relative to ATR. The revolutionary 3D visualization system uses three-layer polyline rendering with adaptive transparency and vertical offsets, creating genuine depth perception where low liquidity zones visually recede and high liquidity zones protrude forward. This makes critical market structure immediately apparent without cluttering your chart.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Dual detection algorithm combining volume threshold analysis and ATR-normalized price movement sensitivity for comprehensive void identification
Three-layer 3D visualization system with progressive transparency gradients (85%, 78%, 70%) and calculated vertical offsets for authentic depth perception
Intelligent state machine logic that tracks consecutive void bars and only renders zones meeting minimum qualification requirements
Dynamic strength scoring system (0-100 scale) that combines inverted volume ratios with movement intensity for accurate void characterization
Adaptive ATR-based spacing calculation that automatically adjusts 3D layering depth to match instrument volatility
Efficient memory management system supporting up to 100 simultaneous void visualizations with automatic array-based cleanup
🔧 Core Components
Volume Analysis Engine: Calculates rolling volume averages and compares current bar volume against dynamic thresholds to detect abnormally thin trading conditions
Price Movement Analyzer: Normalizes bar range against ATR to identify rapid price movements that indicate liquidity exhaustion regardless of instrument or timeframe
Void Tracking State Machine: Maintains persistent tracking of void start bars, price boundaries, consecutive bar counts, and cumulative strength across multiple bars
3D Polyline Renderer: Generates three-layer rectangular polylines with precise timestamp-to-bar index conversion and progressive offset calculations
Strength Calculation System: Combines volume component (inverted ratio capped at 100) with movement component (ATR intensity × 30) for comprehensive void scoring
🔥 Key Features
Automatic Void Detection: Continuously scans price action for low volume conditions or rapid movements, triggering void tracking when thresholds are exceeded
Real-Time Visualization: Creates 3D rectangular zones spanning from void initiation to termination, with color-coded depth indicating liquidity type
Adjustable Sensitivity: Configure volume threshold multiplier (0.1-2.0x), price movement sensitivity (0.5-5.0x), and minimum qualifying bars (1-10) for customized detection
Dual Color Coding: Separate visual treatment for low liquidity voids (receding red) and high liquidity zones (protruding green) based on 50-point strength threshold
Optional Compact Labels: Toggle LV (Low Volume) or HV (High Volume) circular labels at void centers for quick identification without visual clutter
Lookback Period Control: Adjust analysis window from 5 to 100 bars to match your trading timeframe and market volatility characteristics
Memory-Efficient Design: Automatically manages polyline and label arrays, deleting oldest elements when user-defined maximum is reached
Data Window Integration: Plots void detection binary, current strength score, and average volume for detailed analysis in TradingView's data window
🎨 Visualization
Three-Layer Depth System: Each void is rendered as three stacked polylines with progressive transparency (85%, 78%, 70%) and calculated vertical offsets creating authentic 3D appearance
Directional Depth Perception: Low liquidity zones recede with back layer most transparent; high liquidity zones protrude with front layer most transparent for instant visual differentiation
Adaptive Offset Spacing: Vertical separation between layers calculated as ATR(14) × 0.001, ensuring consistent 3D effect across different instruments and volatility regimes
Color Customization: Fully configurable base colors for both low liquidity zones (default: red with 80 transparency) and high liquidity zones (default: green with 80 transparency)
Minimal Chart Clutter: Closed polylines with matching line and fill colors create clean rectangular zones without unnecessary borders or visual noise
Background Highlight: Subtle yellow background (96% transparency) marks bars where void conditions are actively detected in real-time
Compact Labeling: Optional tiny circular labels with 60% transparent backgrounds positioned at void center points for quick reference
📖 Usage Guidelines
Detection Settings
Lookback Period: Default: 10 | Range: 5-100 | Number of bars analyzed for volume averaging and void detection. Lower values increase sensitivity to recent changes; higher values smooth detection across longer timeframes. Adjust based on your trading timeframe: short-term traders use 5-15, swing traders use 20-50, position traders use 50-100.
Volume Threshold: Default: 1.0 | Range: 0.1-2.0 (step 0.1) | Multiplier applied to average volume. Bars with volume below (average × threshold) trigger void conditions. Lower values detect only extreme volume depletion; higher values capture more moderate low-volume situations. Start with 1.0 and decrease to 0.5-0.7 for stricter detection.
Price Movement Sensitivity: Default: 1.5 | Range: 0.5-5.0 (step 0.1) | Multiplier for ATR-normalized price movement detection. Values above this threshold indicate rapid price changes suggesting liquidity voids. Increase to 2.0-3.0 for volatile instruments; decrease to 0.8-1.2 for ranging or low-volatility conditions.
Minimum Void Bars: Default: 10 | Range: 1-10 | Minimum consecutive bars exhibiting void conditions required before visualization is created. Filters out brief anomalies and ensures only sustained voids are displayed. Use 1-3 for scalping, 5-10 for intraday trading, 10+ for swing trading to match your time horizon.
Visual Settings
Low Liquidity Color: Default: Red (80% transparent) | Base color for zones where volume depletion or rapid movement indicates thin liquidity. These zones recede visually (back layer most transparent). Choose colors that contrast with your chart theme for optimal visibility.
High Liquidity Color: Default: Green (80% transparent) | Base color for zones with relatively higher liquidity compared to void threshold. These zones protrude visually (front layer most transparent). Ensure clear differentiation from low liquidity color.
Show Void Labels: Default: True | Toggle display of compact LV/HV labels at void centers. Disable for cleaner charts when trading; enable for analysis and review to quickly identify void types across your chart.
Max Visible Voids: Default: 50 | Range: 10-100 | Maximum number of void visualizations kept on chart. Each void uses 3 polylines, so setting of 50 maintains 150 total polylines. Higher values preserve more history but may impact performance on lower-end systems.
✅ Best Use Cases
Gap Fill Trading: Identify unfilled liquidity voids that price frequently returns to, providing high-probability retest and reversal opportunities when price approaches these zones
Breakout Validation: Distinguish genuine breakouts through established liquidity from false breaks into void zones that lack sustainable volume support
Support/Resistance Confluence: Layer void detection over key horizontal levels to validate structural integrity—levels within high liquidity zones are stronger than those in voids
Trend Continuation: Monitor for new void formation in trend direction as potential continuation zones where price may accelerate due to reduced resistance
Range Trading: Identify void zones within consolidation ranges that price tends to traverse quickly, helping to avoid getting caught in rapid moves through thin areas
Entry Timing: Wait for price to reach void boundaries rather than entering mid-void, as voids tend to be traversed quickly with limited profit-taking opportunities
⚠️ Limitations
Historical Pattern Indicator: Identifies past liquidity voids but cannot predict whether price will return to fill them or when filling might occur
No Volume on Forex: Indicator uses tick volume for forex pairs, which approximates but doesn't represent true trading volume, potentially affecting detection accuracy
Lagging Confirmation: Requires minimum consecutive bars (default 10) before void is visualized, meaning detection occurs after void formation begins
Trending Market Behavior: Strong trends driven by fundamental catalysts may create voids that remain unfilled for extended periods or permanently
Timeframe Dependency: Detection sensitivity varies significantly across timeframes; settings optimized for one timeframe may not perform well on others
No Directional Bias: Indicator identifies liquidity characteristics but provides no predictive signal for price direction after void detection
Performance Considerations: Higher max visible void settings combined with small minimum void bars can generate numerous visualizations impacting chart rendering speed
💡 What Makes This Unique
Industry-First 3D Visualization: Unlike flat volume or liquidity indicators, the three-layer rendering with directional depth perception provides instant visual hierarchy of liquidity quality
Dual-Mode Detection: Combines both volume-based and movement-based detection methodologies, capturing voids that single-approach indicators miss
Intelligent Qualification System: State machine logic prevents premature visualization by requiring sustained void conditions, reducing false signals and chart clutter
ATR-Normalized Analysis: All detection thresholds adapt to instrument volatility, ensuring consistent performance across stocks, forex, crypto, and futures without constant recalibration
Transparency-Based Depth: Uses progressive transparency gradients rather than colors or patterns to create depth, maintaining visual clarity while conveying information hierarchy
Comprehensive Strength Metrics: 0-100 void strength calculation considers both the degree of volume depletion and the magnitude of price movement for nuanced zone characterization
🔬 How It Works
Phase 1: Real-Time Detection
On each bar close, the indicator calculates average volume over the lookback period and compares current bar volume against the volume threshold multiplier
Simultaneously measures current bar's high-low range and normalizes it against ATR, comparing the result to price movement sensitivity parameter
If either volume falls below threshold OR movement exceeds sensitivity threshold, the bar is flagged as exhibiting void characteristics
Phase 2: Void Tracking & Qualification
When void conditions first appear, state machine initializes tracking variables: start bar index, initial top/bottom prices, consecutive bar counter, and cumulative strength accumulator
Each subsequent bar with void conditions extends the tracking, updating price boundaries to envelope all bars and accumulating strength scores
When void conditions cease, system checks if consecutive bar count meets minimum threshold; if yes, proceeds to visualization; if no, discards the tracking and resets
Phase 3: 3D Visualization Construction
Calculates average void strength by dividing cumulative strength by number of bars, then determines if void is low liquidity (>50 strength) or high liquidity (≤50 strength)
Generates three polyline layers spanning from start bar to end bar and from top price to bottom price, each with calculated vertical offset based on ATR
Applies progressive transparency (85%, 78%, 70%) with layer ordering creating recession effect for low liquidity zones and protrusion effect for high liquidity zones
Creates optional center label and pushes all visual elements into arrays for memory management
Phase 4: Memory Management & Display
Continuously monitors polyline array size (each void creates 3 polylines); when total exceeds max visible voids × 3, deletes oldest polylines via array.shift()
Similarly manages label array, removing oldest labels when count exceeds maximum to prevent memory accumulation over extended chart history
Plots diagnostic data to TradingView’s data window (void detection binary, current strength, average volume) for detailed analysis without cluttering main chart
💡 Note:
This indicator is designed to enhance your market structure analysis by revealing liquidity characteristics that aren’t visible through standard price and volume displays. For best results, combine void detection with your existing support/resistance analysis, trend identification, and risk management framework. Liquidity voids are descriptive of past market behavior and should inform positioning decisions rather than serve as standalone entry/exit signals. Experiment with detection parameters across different timeframes to find settings that align with your trading style and instrument characteristics.
Quantum Flux Universal Strategy Summary in one paragraph
Quantum Flux Universal is a regime switching strategy for stocks, ETFs, index futures, major FX pairs, and liquid crypto on intraday and swing timeframes. It helps you act only when the normalized core signal and its guide agree on direction. It is original because the engine fuses three adaptive drivers into the smoothing gains itself. Directional intensity is measured with binary entropy, path efficiency shapes trend quality, and a volatility squash preserves contrast. Add it to a clean chart, watch the polarity lane and background, and trade from positive or negative alignment. For conservative workflows use on bar close in the alert settings when you add alerts in a later version.
Scope and intent
• Markets. Large cap equities and ETFs. Index futures. Major FX pairs. Liquid crypto
• Timeframes. One minute to daily
• Default demo used in the publication. QQQ on one hour
• Purpose. Provide a robust and portable way to detect when momentum and confirmation align, while dampening chop and preserving turns
• Limits. This is a strategy. Orders are simulated on standard candles only
Originality and usefulness
• Unique concept or fusion. The novelty sits in the gain map. Instead of gating separate indicators, the model mixes three drivers into the adaptive gains that power two one pole filters. Directional entropy measures how one sided recent movement has been. Kaufman style path efficiency scores how direct the path has been. A volatility squash stabilizes step size. The drivers are blended into the gains with visible inputs for strength, windows, and clamps.
• What failure mode it addresses. False starts in chop and whipsaw after fast spikes. Efficiency and the squash reduce over reaction in noise.
• Testability. Every component has an input. You can lengthen or shorten each window and change the normalization mode. The polarity plot and background provide a direct readout of state.
• Portable yardstick. The core is normalized with three options. Z score, percent rank mapped to a symmetric range, and MAD based Z score. Clamp bounds define the effective unit so context transfers across symbols.
Method overview in plain language
The strategy computes two smoothed tracks from the chart price source. The fast track and the slow track use gains that are not fixed. Each gain is modulated by three drivers. A driver for directional intensity, a driver for path efficiency, and a driver for volatility. The difference between the fast and the slow tracks forms the raw flux. A small phase assist reduces lag by subtracting a portion of the delayed value. The flux is then normalized. A guide line is an EMA of a small lead on the flux. When the flux and its guide are both above zero, the polarity is positive. When both are below zero, the polarity is negative. Polarity changes create the trade direction.
Base measures
• Return basis. The step is the change in the chosen price source. Its absolute value feeds the volatility estimate. Mean absolute step over the window gives a stable scale.
• Efficiency basis. The ratio of net move to the sum of absolute step over the window gives a value between zero and one. High values mean trend quality. Low values mean chop.
• Intensity basis. The fraction of up moves over the window plugs into binary entropy. Intensity is one minus entropy, which maps to zero in uncertainty and one in very one sided moves.
Components
• Directional Intensity. Measures how one sided recent bars have been. Smoothed with RMA. More intensity increases the gain and makes the fast and slow tracks react sooner.
• Path Efficiency. Measures the straightness of the price path. A gamma input shapes the curve so you can make trend quality count more or less. Higher efficiency lifts the gain in clean trends.
• Volatility Squash. Normalizes the absolute step with Z score then pushes it through an arctangent squash. This caps the effect of spikes so they do not dominate the response.
• Normalizer. Three modes. Z score for familiar units, percent rank for a robust monotone map to a symmetric range, and MAD based Z for outlier resistance.
• Guide Line. EMA of the flux with a small lead term that counteracts lag without heavy overshoot.
Fusion rule
• Weighted sum of the three drivers with fixed weights visible in the code comments. Intensity has fifty percent weight. Efficiency thirty percent. Volatility twenty percent.
• The blend power input scales the driver mix. Zero means fixed spans. One means full driver control.
• Minimum and maximum gain clamps bound the adaptive gain. This protects stability in quiet or violent regimes.
Signal rule
• Long suggestion appears when flux and guide are both above zero. That sets polarity to plus one.
• Short suggestion appears when flux and guide are both below zero. That sets polarity to minus one.
• When polarity flips from plus to minus, the strategy closes any long and enters a short.
• When flux crosses above the guide, the strategy closes any short.
What you will see on the chart
• White polarity plot around the zero line
• A dotted reference line at zero named Zen
• Green background tint for positive polarity and red background tint for negative polarity
• Strategy long and short markers placed by the TradingView engine at entry and at close conditions
• No table in this version to keep the visual clean and portable
Inputs with guidance
Setup
• Price source. Default ohlc4. Stable for noisy symbols.
• Fast span. Typical range 6 to 24. Raising it slows the fast track and can reduce churn. Lowering it makes entries more reactive.
• Slow span. Typical range 20 to 60. Raising it lengthens the baseline horizon. Lowering it brings the slow track closer to price.
Logic
• Guide span. Typical range 4 to 12. A small guide smooths without eating turns.
• Blend power. Typical range 0.25 to 0.85. Raising it lets the drivers modulate gains more. Lowering it pushes behavior toward fixed EMA style smoothing.
• Vol window. Typical range 20 to 80. Larger values calm the volatility driver. Smaller values adapt faster in intraday work.
• Efficiency window. Typical range 10 to 60. Larger values focus on smoother trends. Smaller values react faster but accept more noise.
• Efficiency gamma. Typical range 0.8 to 2.0. Above one increases contrast between clean trends and chop. Below one flattens the curve.
• Min alpha multiplier. Typical range 0.30 to 0.80. Lower values increase smoothing when the mix is weak.
• Max alpha multiplier. Typical range 1.2 to 3.0. Higher values shorten smoothing when the mix is strong.
• Normalization window. Typical range 100 to 300. Larger values reduce drift in the baseline.
• Normalization mode. Z score, percent rank, or MAD Z. Use MAD Z for outlier heavy symbols.
• Clamp level. Typical range 2.0 to 4.0. Lower clamps reduce the influence of extreme runs.
Filters
• Efficiency filter is implicit in the gain map. Raising efficiency gamma and the efficiency window increases the preference for clean trends.
• Micro versus macro relation is handled by the fast and slow spans. Increase separation for swing, reduce for scalping.
• Location filter is not included in v1.0. If you need distance gates from a reference such as VWAP or a moving mean, add them before publication of a new version.
Alerts
• This version does not include alertcondition lines to keep the core minimal. If you prefer alerts, add names Long Polarity Up, Short Polarity Down, Exit Short on Flux Cross Up in a later version and select on bar close for conservative workflows.
Strategy has been currently adapted for the QQQ asset with 30/60min timeframe.
For other assets may require new optimization
Properties visible in this publication
• Initial capital 25000
• Base currency Default
• Default order size method percent of equity with value 5
• Pyramiding 1
• Commission 0.05 percent
• Slippage 10 ticks
• Process orders on close ON
• Bar magnifier ON
• Recalculate after order is filled OFF
• Calc on every tick OFF
Honest limitations and failure modes
• Past results do not guarantee future outcomes
• Economic releases, circuit breakers, and thin books can break the assumptions behind intensity and efficiency
• Gap heavy symbols may benefit from the MAD Z normalization
• Very quiet regimes can reduce signal contrast. Use longer windows or higher guide span to stabilize context
• Session time is the exchange time of the chart
• If both stop and target can be hit in one bar, tie handling would matter. This strategy has no fixed stops or targets. It uses polarity flips for exits. If you add stops later, declare the preference
Open source reuse and credits
• None beyond public domain building blocks and Pine built ins such as EMA, SMA, standard deviation, RMA, and percent rank
• Method and fusion are original in construction and disclosure
Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.
Strategy add on block
Strategy notice
Orders are simulated by the TradingView engine on standard candles. No request.security() calls are used.
Entries and exits
• Entry logic. Enter long when both the normalized flux and its guide line are above zero. Enter short when both are below zero
• Exit logic. When polarity flips from plus to minus, close any long and open a short. When the flux crosses above the guide line, close any short
• Risk model. No initial stop or target in v1.0. The model is a regime flipper. You can add a stop or trail in later versions if needed
• Tie handling. Not applicable in this version because there are no fixed stops or targets
Position sizing
• Percent of equity in the Properties panel. Five percent is the default for examples. Risk per trade should not exceed five to ten percent of equity. One to two percent is a common choice
Properties used on the published chart
• Initial capital 25000
• Base currency Default
• Default order size percent of equity with value 5
• Pyramiding 1
• Commission 0.05 percent
• Slippage 10 ticks
• Process orders on close ON
• Bar magnifier ON
• Recalculate after order is filled OFF
• Calc on every tick OFF
Dataset and sample size
• Test window Jan 2, 2014 to Oct 16, 2025 on QQQ one hour
• Trade count in sample 324 on the example chart
Release notes template for future updates
Version 1.1.
• Add alertcondition lines for long, short, and exit short
• Add optional table with component readouts
• Add optional stop model with a distance unit expressed as ATR or a percent of price
Notes. Backward compatibility Yes. Inputs migrated Yes.
Continuation Index [DCAUT]█ Continuation Index
📊 OVERVIEW
Continuation Index (CI) is an advanced trend analysis indicator developed by John F. Ehlers. This indicator provides early warning signals for trend onset, continuation, and exhaustion, with values oscillating between -1 and +1 to offer clear trend state identification for traders.
Based on the article TASC 2025.09 "Trend Onset And Trend Exhaustion - The Continuation Index" by John F. Ehlers.
💡 CORE VALUE
Unlike traditional trend indicators, the Continuation Index provides:
- Advanced dual-filter architecture (Ultimate Smoother + Laguerre Filter)
- Inverse Fisher Transform for enhanced signal-to-noise ratio
- Adaptive gamma parameter allowing market-specific tuning
- Binary state output (+1/-1) eliminating interpretation ambiguity
🎯 CONCEPTS
Signal Interpretation
CI > 0.5 : Strong bullish trend continuation - consider holding/adding long positions
CI = +1 : Maximum bullish signal - strong uptrend in progress
CI < -0.5 : Strong bearish trend continuation - consider holding/adding short positions
CI = -1 : Maximum bearish signal - strong downtrend in progress
CI near 0 : Neutral zone - trend uncertain, wait for clear signals
Brief pullbacks from extreme states : Potential reentry opportunities in trend direction
Primary Applications
Trend Onset Detection : Early warning signals for trend initiation
Trend Exhaustion Signals : Identify potential trend reversals
Position Management : Clear binary states for entry/exit decisions
Market Timing : Adaptive filtering reduces false signals
📋 PARAMETER SETUP
Source : Data source for calculation (default: close)
Length : The calculation length for the filters (default: 40, min: 1)
Gamma : Controls the phase response of the Laguerre filter. Smaller values increase responsiveness (default: 0.8, range: 0.0-1.0)
Laguerre Order : The order of the Laguerre filter, which directly affects its lag (default: 8, range: 1-10)
📊 COLOR CODING
Green : CI > 0.5 - Bullish trend continuation
Red : CI < -0.5 - Bearish trend continuation
Gray : Neutral zone - Trend unclear
Dip Hunter [BackQuant]Dip Hunter
What this tool does in plain language
Dip Hunter is a pullback detector designed to find high quality buy-the-dip opportunities inside healthy trends and to avoid random knife catches. It watches for a quick drop from a recent high, checks that the drop happened with meaningful participation and volatility, verifies short-term weakness inside a larger uptrend, then scores the setup and paints the chart so you can act with confidence. It also draws clean entry lines, provides a meter that shows dip strength at a glance, and ships with alerts that match common execution workflows.
How Dip Hunter thinks
It defines a recent swing reference, measures how far price has dipped off that high, and only looks at candidates that meet your minimum percentage drop.
It confirms the dip with real activity by requiring a volume spike and a volatility spike.
It checks structure with two EMAs. Price should be weak in the short term while the larger context remains constructive.
It optionally requires a higher-timeframe trend to be up so you focus on pullbacks in trending markets.
It bundles those checks into a score and shows you the score on the candles and on a gradient meter.
When everything lines up it paints a green triangle below the bar, shades the background, and (if you wish) draws a horizontal entry line at your chosen level.
Inputs and what they mean
Dip Hunter Settings
• Vol Lookback and Vol Spike : The script computes an average volume over the lookback window and flags a spike when current volume is a multiple of that average. A multiplier of 2.0 means today’s volume must be at least double the average. This helps filter noise and focuses on dips that other traders actually traded.
• Fast EMA and Slow EMA : Short-term and medium-term structure references. A dip is more credible if price closes below the fast EMA while the fast EMA is still below the slow EMA during the pullback. That is classic corrective behavior inside a larger trend.
• Price Smooth : Optional smoothing length for price-derived series. Use this if you trade very noisy assets or low timeframes.
• Volatility Len and Vol Spike (volatility) : The script checks both standard deviation and true range against their own averages. If either expands beyond your multiplier the market confirms the move with range.
• Dip % and Lookback Bars : The engine finds the highest high over the lookback window, then computes the percentage drawdown from that high to the current close. Only dips larger than your threshold qualify.
Trend Filter
• Enable Trend Filter : When on, Dip Hunter will only trigger if the market is in an uptrend.
• Trend EMA Period : The longer EMA that defines the session’s backbone trend.
• Minimum Trend Strength : A small positive slope requirement. In practice this means the trend EMA should be rising, and price should be above it. You can raise the value to be more selective.
Entries
• Show Entry Lines : Draws a horizontal guide from the signal bar for a fixed number of bars. Great for limit orders, scaling, or re-tests.
• Line Length (bars) : How far the entry guide extends.
• Min Gap (bars) : Suppresses new entry lines if another dip fired recently. Prevents clutter during choppy sequences.
• Entry Price : Choose the line level. “Low” anchors at the signal candle’s low. “Close” anchors at the signal close. “Dip % Level” anchors at the theoretical level defined by recent_high × (1 − dip%). This lets you work resting orders at a consistent discount.
Heat / Meter
• Color Bars by Score : Colors each candle using a red→white→green gradient. Red is overheated, green is prime dip territory, white is neutral.
• Show Meter Table : Adds a compact gradient strip with a pointer that tracks the current score.
• Meter Cells and Meter Position : Resolution and placement of the meter.
UI Settings
• Show Dip Signals : Plots green triangles under qualifying bars and tints the background very lightly.
• Show EMAs : Plots fast, slow, and the trend EMA (if the trend filter is enabled).
• Bullish, Bearish, Neutral colors : Theme controls for shapes, fills, and bar painting.
Core calculations explained simply
Recent high and dip percent
The script finds the highest high over Lookback Bars , calls it “recent high,” then calculates:
dip% = (recent_high − close) ÷ recent_high × 100.
If dip% is larger than Dip % , condition one passes.
Volume confirmation
It computes a simple moving average of volume over Vol Lookback . If current volume ÷ average volume > Vol Spike , we have a participation spike. It also checks 5-bar ROC of volume. If ROC > 50 the spike is forceful. This gets an extra score point.
Volatility confirmation
Two independent checks:
• Standard deviation of closes vs its own average.
• True range vs ATR.
If either expands beyond Vol Spike (volatility) the move has range. This prevents false triggers from quiet drifts.
Short-term structure
Price should close below the Fast EMA and the fast EMA should be below the Slow EMA at the moment of the dip. That is the anatomy of a pullback rather than a full breakdown.
Macro trend context (optional)
When Enable Trend Filter is on, the Trend EMA must be rising and price must be above it. The logic prefers “micro weakness inside macro strength” which is the highest probability pattern for buying dips.
Signal formation
A valid dip requires:
• dip% > threshold
• volume spike true
• volatility spike true
• close below fast EMA
• fast EMA below slow EMA
If the trend filter is enabled, a rising trend EMA with price above it is also required. When all true, the triangle prints, the background tints, and optional entry lines are drawn.
Scoring and visuals
Binary checks into a continuous score
Each component contributes to a score between 0 and 1. The script then rescales to a centered range (−50 to +50).
• Low or negative scores imply “overheated” conditions and are shaded toward red.
• High positive scores imply “ripe for a dip buy” conditions and are shaded toward green.
• The gradient meter repeats the same logic, with a pointer so you can read the state quickly.
Bar coloring
If you enable “Color Bars by Score,” each candle inherits the gradient. This makes sequences obvious. Red clusters warn you not to buy. White means neutral. Increasing green suggests the pullback is maturing.
EMAs and the trend EMA
• Fast EMA turns down relative to the slow EMA inside the pullback.
• Trend EMA stays rising and above price once the dip exhausts, which is your cue to focus on long setups rather than bottom fishing in downtrends.
Entry lines
When a fresh signal fires and no other signal happened within Min Gap (bars) , the indicator draws a horizontal level for Line Length bars. Use these lines for limit entries at the low, at the close, or at the defined dip-percent level. This keeps your plan consistent across instruments.
Alerts and what they mean
• Market Overheated : Score is deeply negative. Do not chase. Wait for green.
• Close To A Dip : Score has reached a healthy level but the full signal did not trigger yet. Prepare orders.
• Dip Confirmed : First bar of a fresh validated dip. This is the most direct entry alert.
• Dip Active : The dip condition remains valid. You can scale in on re-tests.
• Dip Fading : Score crosses below 0.5 from above. Momentum of the setup is fading. Tighten stops or take partials.
• Trend Blocked Signal : All dip conditions passed but the trend filter is offside. Either reduce risk or skip, depending on your plan.
How to trade with Dip Hunter
Classic pullback in uptrend
Turn on the trend filter.
Watch for a Dip Confirmed alert with green triangle.
Use the entry line at “Dip % Level” to stage a limit order. This keeps your entries consistent across assets and timeframes.
Initial stop under the signal bar’s low or under the next lower EMA band.
First target at prior swing high, second target at a multiple of risk.
If you use partials, trail the remainder under the fast EMA once price reclaims it.
Aggressive intraday scalps
Lower Dip % and Lookback Bars so you catch shallow flags.
Keep Vol Spike meaningful so you only trade when participation appears.
Take quick partials when price reclaims the fast EMA, then exit on Dip Fading if momentum stalls.
Counter-trend probes
Disable the trend filter if you intentionally hunt reflex bounces in downtrends.
Require strong volume and volatility confirmation.
Use smaller size and faster targets. The meter should move quickly from red toward white and then green. If it does not, step aside.
Risk management templates
Stops
• Conservative: below the entry line minus a small buffer or below the signal bar’s low.
• Structural: below the slow EMA if you aim for swing continuation.
• Time stop: if price does not reclaim the fast EMA within N bars, exit.
Position sizing
Use the distance between the entry line and your structural stop to size consistently. The script’s entry lines make this distance obvious.
Scaling
• Scale at the entry line first touch.
• Add only if the meter stays green and price reclaims the fast EMA.
• Stop adding on a Dip Fading alert.
Tuning guide by market and timeframe
Equities daily
• Dip %: 1.5 to 3.0
• Lookback Bars: 5 to 10
• Vol Spike: 1.5 to 2.5
• Volatility Len: 14 to 20
• Trend EMA: 100 or 200
• Keep trend filter on for a cleaner list.
Futures and FX intraday
• Dip %: 0.4 to 1.2
• Lookback Bars: 3 to 7
• Vol Spike: 1.8 to 3.0
• Volatility Len: 10 to 14
• Use Min Gap to avoid clusters during news.
Crypto
• Dip %: 3.0 to 6.0 for majors on higher timeframes, lower on 15m to 1h
• Lookback Bars: 5 to 12
• Vol Spike: 1.8 to 3.0
• ATR and stdev checks help in erratic sessions.
Reading the chart at a glance
• Green triangle below the bar: a validated dip.
• Light green background: the current bar meets the full condition.
• Bar gradient: red is overheated, white is neutral, green is dip-friendly.
• EMAs: fast below slow during the pullback, then reclaim fast EMA on the bounce for quality continuation.
• Trend EMA: a rising spine when the filter is on.
• Entry line: a fixed level to anchor orders and risk.
• Meter pointer: right side toward “Dip” means conditions are maturing.
Why this combination reduces false positives
Any single criterion will trigger too often. Dip Hunter demands a dip off a recent high plus a volume surge plus a volatility expansion plus corrective EMA structure. Optional trend alignment pushes odds further in your favor. The score and meter visualize how many of these boxes you are actually ticking, which is more reliable than a binary dot.
Limitations and practical tips
• Thin or illiquid symbols can spoof volume spikes. Use larger Vol Lookback or raise Vol Spike .
• Sideways markets will show frequent small dips. Increase Dip % or keep the trend filter on.
• News candles can blow through entry lines. Widen stops or skip around known events.
• If you see many back-to-back triangles, raise Min Gap to keep only the best setups.
Quick setup recipes
• Clean swing trader: Trend filter on, Dip % 2.0 to 3.0, Vol Spike 2.0, Volatility Len 14, Fast 20 EMA, Slow 50 EMA, Trend 100 EMA.
• Fast intraday scalper: Trend filter off, Dip % 0.7 to 1.0, Vol Spike 2.5, Volatility Len 10, Fast 9 EMA, Slow 21 EMA, Min Gap 10 bars.
• Crypto swing: Trend filter on, Dip % 4.0, Vol Spike 2.0, Volatility Len 14, Fast 20 EMA, Slow 50 EMA, Trend 200 EMA.
Summary
Dip Hunter is a focused pullback engine. It quantifies a real dip off a recent high, validates it with volume and volatility expansion, enforces corrective structure with EMAs, and optionally restricts signals to an uptrend. The score, bar gradient, and meter make reading conditions instant. Entry lines and alerts turn that read into an executable plan. Tune the thresholds to your market and timeframe, then let the tool keep you patient in red, selective in white, and decisive in green.
Entropy (Fiedor/Kontoyiannis) - Part 2 of Fiedor's TheoryThis indicator estimates the Shannon entropy of a price series using a Markov chain model of binary returns, following the approach of Fiedor (2014) and Kontoyiannis (1997).
% of Max shows current entropy as a percentage of its theoretical maximum (1 bit for binary up/down moves).
Percentile ranks the current entropy against historical values in the chosen lookback window.
High entropy suggests price movement is less predictable by frequentist models; low entropy implies more structure and predictability.
Use this as an informational oscillator, not a trading signal.
This is a visualization of Part 1 of Fiedor's Theory. The same entropy logic is already embedded in Part 1 however the second pane is a nice reminder of why it works.
Information Theory Market AnalysisINFORMATION THEORY MARKET ANALYSIS
OVERVIEW
This indicator applies mathematical concepts from information theory to analyze market behavior, measuring the randomness and predictability of price and volume movements through entropy calculations. Unlike traditional technical indicators, it provides insight into market structure and regime changes.
KEY COMPONENTS
Four Main Signals:
• Price Entropy (Deep Blue): Measures randomness in price movements
• Volume Entropy (Bright Blue): Analyzes volume pattern predictability
• Entropy MACD (Purple): Shows relationship between price and volume entropy
• SEMM (Royal Blue): Stochastic Entropy Market Monitor - overall market randomness gauge
Market State Detection:
The indicator identifies seven distinct market states:
• Strong Trending (SEMM < 0.1)
• Weak Trending (0.1-0.2)
• Neutral (0.2-0.3)
• Moderate Random (0.3-0.5)
• High Randomness (0.5-0.8)
• Very Random (0.8-1.0)
• Chaotic (>1.0)
KEY FEATURES
Advanced Analytics:
• Signal Strength Confluence: 0-5 scale measuring alignment of multiple factors
• Entropy Crossovers: Detects shifts between accumulation and distribution phases
• Extreme Readings: Identifies statistical outliers for potential reversals
• Trend Bias Analysis: Directional momentum assessment
Information Dashboard:
• Real-time entropy values and market state
• Signal strength indicator with visual highlighting
• Trend bias with directional arrows
• Color-coded alerts for extreme conditions
Customizable Display:
• Adjustable SEMM scaling (5x to 100x) for optimal visibility
• Multiple line styles: Smooth, Stepped, Dotted
• 9 table positions with 3 size options
• Professional blue color scheme with transparency controls
Comprehensive Alert System - 15 Alert Types Including:
• Extreme entropy readings (price/volume)
• Crossover signals (dominance shifts)
• Market state changes (trending ↔ random)
• High confluence signals (3+ factors aligned)
HOW TO USE
Reading the Signals:
• Entropy Values > ±25: Strong structural signals
• Entropy Values > ±40: Extreme readings, potential reversals
• SEMM < 0.2: Trending market favors directional strategies
• SEMM > 0.5: Random market favors range/scalping strategies
Signal Confluence:
Look for multiple factors aligning:
• Signal Strength ≥ 3.0 for higher probability setups
• Background highlighting indicates confluence
• Table shows real-time strength assessment
Timeframe Optimization:
• Short-term (1m-15m): Entropy Length 14-22, Sensitivity 3-5
• Swing Trading (1H-4H): Default settings optimal
• Position Trading (Daily+): Entropy Length 34-55, Sensitivity 8-12
EDUCATIONAL APPLICATIONS
Market Structure Analysis:
• Understand when markets are trending vs. ranging
• Identify accumulation and distribution phases
• Recognize extreme market conditions
• Measure information content in price movements
Information Theory Concepts:
• Binary entropy calculations applied to financial data
• Probability distribution analysis of returns
• Statistical ranking and percentile analysis
• Momentum-adjusted randomness measurement
TECHNICAL DETAILS
Calculations:
• Uses binary entropy formula: -
• Percentile ranking across multiple timeframes
• Volume-weighted probability distributions
• RSI-adjusted momentum entropy (SEMM)
Customization Options:
• Entropy Length: 5-100 bars (default: 22)
• Average Length: 10-200 bars (default: 88)
• Sensitivity: 1.0-20.0 (default: 5.0, lower = more sensitive)
• SEMM Scaling: 5.0-100.0x (default: 30.0)
IMPORTANT NOTES
Risk Considerations:
• Indicator measures probabilities, not certainties
• High SEMM values (>0.5) suggest increased market randomness
• Extreme readings may persist longer than expected
• Always combine with proper risk management
Educational Purpose:
This indicator is designed for:
• Market structure analysis and education
• Understanding information theory applications in finance
• Developing probabilistic thinking about markets
• Research and analytical purposes
Performance Tips:
• Allow 200+ bars for proper initialization
• Adjust scaling and transparency for optimal visibility
• Use confluence signals for higher probability analysis
• Consider multiple timeframes for comprehensive analysis
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes. It does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions.
Version: 5.0
Category: Oscillators, Volume, Market Structure
Best For: All timeframes, trending and ranging markets
Complexity: Intermediate to Advanced
TTM Squeeze Value OscillatorThis indicator is specifically designed for use with TradingView's Stock Screener, not for chart analysis. It provides numerical values and binary signals that allow traders to efficiently scan stocks for specific TTM Squeeze conditions, momentum patterns, and EMA alignments.
What It Does
The TTM Squeeze Value Oscillator converts the popular TTM Squeeze indicator into a screenable format by outputting specific numerical values and binary signals (1 or 0) that can be filtered in TradingView's screener tool.
Key Features
1. TTM Squeeze Compression Levels
Value 0: Low Compression (Black) - Bollinger Bands inside outer Keltner Channels
Value 1: Mid Compression (Red) - Bollinger Bands inside middle Keltner Channels
Value 2: High Compression (Orange) - Bollinger Bands inside inner Keltner Channels
Value 3: Squeeze Fired (Green) - Bollinger Bands outside Keltner Channels
2. Momentum Analysis
Four distinct momentum conditions based on TTM Squeeze methodology:
Buy Momentum Increasing - Positive momentum growing stronger
Buy Momentum Decreasing - Positive momentum weakening
Sell Momentum Increasing - Negative momentum growing stronger
Sell Momentum Decreasing - Negative momentum weakening
3. EMA Stacking Analysis
Three EMA alignment patterns using 8, 21, and 48 period EMAs:
EMA Stacked Bullish - 8 EMA > 21 EMA > 48 EMA (uptrend alignment)
EMA Stacked Bearish - 8 EMA < 21 EMA < 48 EMA (downtrend alignment)
EMA Mixed - EMAs not in clear bullish or bearish alignment
4. Consecutive Day Counters
Tracks how many consecutive days each squeeze condition has persisted:
Low Compression Days
Mid Compression Days
High Compression Days
Squeeze Fired Days
5. Combined Signal Analysis
Pre-calculated combinations of squeeze conditions with momentum:
All squeeze levels combined with all four momentum conditions
16 total combined signals for advanced screening
[Kpt-Ahab] Poor Mans Orderflow SimulatorScript Description – Poor Mans Orderflow Simulator
Purpose of the Script
This script simulates a simplified order flow approach ("Poor Man's Orderflow") without access to actual Bid/Ask data. The goal is to detect, quantify, and visualize patterns such as absorption, impulsive moves, and structured re-entry behaviors.
Calculation Logic
Absorption Candles
A candle is classified as "absorption" if:
The ratio of body size to full candle range is below a defined threshold,
Volume is significantly higher than the average of the last N periods,
The candle direction is negative (for long absorption) or positive (for short absorption).
These conditions define a candle with high activity but minimal price movement in the respective direction.
Impulse Candles
A candle is classified as "impulse" if:
The body-to-range ratio is high (indicating a strong directional move),
Volume exceeds the average significantly,
The price closes in the direction of the candle body (bullish or bearish).
Additionally, the average range of previous candles serves as a minimum benchmark for the impulse.
Cluster Detection
A cluster is detected when:
A minimum number of absorption candles is counted within a defined lookback period,
Either the long or short version of the absorption logic is used,
The result is a binary condition: cluster active or inactive.
Entry Signals (Re-entry)
An entry signal is generated when:
One or more absorption candles occurred in the last two bars,
A pullback against the direction of absorption occurs,
The current candle shows a directional move confirmed by a close in the expected direction.
These re-entry signals are evaluated separately for long and short scenarios.
Cluster-Confirmed Signals
A separate signal is generated when a valid re-entry setup occurs while a cluster is active. This represents a combined logic condition.
Alert Logic
The script provides a multi-layer alert framework:
Signal selection (Alertmode):
The user defines which signal type should trigger an alert (e.g. re-entry only, cluster only, combination, or impulse).
Optional filter (Filtermode):
A secondary filter limits alerts to cases where an additional condition (e.g. absorption cluster) is active.
Signal output:
As a simple binary value (+1 / –1) for classic alerts,
Or via an encoded Multibit signal, compatible with other modules in the djmad ecosystem.
These alerts are intended for integration with external systems or for use within platform-native visual or automation features.
TUF_LOGICTUF_LOGIC: Three-Value Logic for Pine Script v6
The TUF_LOGIC library implements a robust three-valued logic system (trilean logic) for Pine Script v6, providing a formal framework for reasoning about uncertain or incomplete information in financial markets. By extending beyond binary True/False states to include an explicit "Uncertain" state, this library enables more nuanced algorithmic decision-making, particularly valuable in environments characterized by imperfect information.
Core Architecture
TUF_LOGIC offers two complementary interfaces for working with trilean values:
Enum-Based API (Recommended): Leverages Pine Script v6's enum capabilities with Trilean.True , Trilean.Uncertain , and Trilean.False for improved type safety and performance.
Integer-Based API (Legacy Support): Maintains compatibility with existing code using integer values 1 (True), 0 (Uncertain), and -1 (False).
Fundamental Operations
The library provides type conversion methods for seamless interaction between integer representation and enum types ( to_trilean() , to_int() ), along with validation functions to maintain trilean invariants.
Logical Operators
TUF_LOGIC extends traditional boolean operators to the trilean domain with NOT , AND , OR , XOR , and EQUALITY functions that properly handle the Uncertain state according to the principles of three-valued logic.
The library implements three different implication operators providing flexibility for different logical requirements: IMP_K (Kleene's approach), IMP_L (Łukasiewicz's approach), and IMP_RM3 (Relevant implication under RM3 logic).
Inspired by Tarski-Łukasiewicz's modal logic formulations, TUF_LOGIC includes modal operators: MA (Modal Assertion) evaluates whether a state is possibly true; LA (Logical Assertion) determines if a state is necessarily true; and IA (Indeterminacy Assertion) identifies explicitly uncertain states.
The UNANIMOUS operator evaluates trilean values for complete agreement, returning the consensus value if one exists or Uncertain otherwise. This function is available for both pairs of values and arrays of trilean values.
Practical Applications
TUF_LOGIC excels in financial market scenarios where decision-making must account for uncertainty. It enables technical indicator consensus by combining signals with different confidence levels, supports multi-timeframe analysis by reconciling potentially contradictory signals, enhances risk management by explicitly modeling uncertainty, and handles partial information systems where some data sources may be unreliable.
By providing a mathematically sound framework for reasoning about uncertainty, TUF_LOGIC elevates trading system design beyond simplistic binary logic, allowing for more sophisticated decision-making that better reflects real-world market complexity.
Library "TUF_LOGIC"
Three-Value Logic (TUF: True, Uncertain, False) implementation for Pine Script.
This library provides a comprehensive set of logical operations supporting trilean logic systems,
including Kleene, Łukasiewicz, and RM3 implications. Compatible with Pine v6 enums.
method validate(self)
Ensures a valid trilean integer value by clamping to the appropriate range .
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The integer value to validate.
Returns: An integer value guaranteed to be within the valid trilean range.
method to_trilean(self)
Converts an integer value to a Trilean enum value.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The integer to convert (typically -1, 0, or 1).
Returns: A Trilean enum value: True (1), Uncertain (0), or False (-1).
method to_int(self)
Converts a Trilean enum value to its corresponding integer representation.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The Trilean enum value to convert.
Returns: Integer value: 1 (True), 0 (Uncertain), or -1 (False).
method NOT(self)
Negates a trilean integer value (NOT operation).
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The integer value to negate.
Returns: Negated integer value: 1 -> -1, 0 -> 0, -1 -> 1.
method NOT(self)
Negates a Trilean enum value (NOT operation).
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The Trilean enum value to negate.
Returns: Negated Trilean: True -> False, Uncertain -> Uncertain, False -> True.
method AND(self, comparator)
Logical AND operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The first integer value.
comparator (int) : The second integer value to compare with.
Returns: Integer result of the AND operation (minimum value).
method AND(self, comparator)
Logical AND operation for Trilean enum values following three-valued logic.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The first Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The second Trilean enum value to compare with.
Returns: Trilean result of the AND operation.
method OR(self, comparator)
Logical OR operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The first integer value.
comparator (int) : The second integer value to compare with.
Returns: Integer result of the OR operation (maximum value).
method OR(self, comparator)
Logical OR operation for Trilean enum values following three-valued logic.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The first Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The second Trilean enum value to compare with.
Returns: Trilean result of the OR operation.
method EQUALITY(self, comparator)
Logical EQUALITY operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The first integer value.
comparator (int) : The second integer value to compare with.
Returns: Integer representation (1/-1) indicating if values are equal.
method EQUALITY(self, comparator)
Logical EQUALITY operation for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The first Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The second Trilean enum value to compare with.
Returns: Trilean.True if both values are equal, Trilean.False otherwise.
method XOR(self, comparator)
Logical XOR (Exclusive OR) operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The first integer value.
comparator (int) : The second integer value to compare with.
Returns: Integer result of the XOR operation.
method XOR(self, comparator)
Logical XOR (Exclusive OR) operation for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The first Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The second Trilean enum value to compare with.
Returns: Trilean result of the XOR operation.
method IMP_K(self, comparator)
Material implication using Kleene's logic for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The antecedent integer value.
comparator (int) : The consequent integer value.
Returns: Integer result of Kleene's implication operation.
method IMP_K(self, comparator)
Material implication using Kleene's logic for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The antecedent Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The consequent Trilean enum value.
Returns: Trilean result of Kleene's implication operation.
method IMP_L(self, comparator)
Logical implication using Łukasiewicz's logic for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The antecedent integer value.
comparator (int) : The consequent integer value.
Returns: Integer result of Łukasiewicz's implication operation.
method IMP_L(self, comparator)
Logical implication using Łukasiewicz's logic for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The antecedent Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The consequent Trilean enum value.
Returns: Trilean result of Łukasiewicz's implication operation.
method IMP_RM3(self, comparator)
Logical implication using RM3 logic for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The antecedent integer value.
comparator (int) : The consequent integer value.
Returns: Integer result of the RM3 implication operation.
method IMP_RM3(self, comparator)
Logical implication using RM3 logic for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The antecedent Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The consequent Trilean enum value.
Returns: Trilean result of the RM3 implication operation.
method MA(self)
Modal Assertion (MA) operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The integer value to evaluate.
Returns: 1 if the value is 1 or 0, -1 if the value is -1.
method MA(self)
Modal Assertion (MA) operation for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The Trilean enum value to evaluate.
Returns: Trilean.True if value is True or Uncertain, Trilean.False if value is False.
method LA(self)
Logical Assertion (LA) operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The integer value to evaluate.
Returns: 1 if the value is 1, -1 otherwise.
method LA(self)
Logical Assertion (LA) operation for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The Trilean enum value to evaluate.
Returns: Trilean.True if value is True, Trilean.False otherwise.
method IA(self)
Indeterminacy Assertion (IA) operation for trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The integer value to evaluate.
Returns: 1 if the value is 0, -1 otherwise.
method IA(self)
Indeterminacy Assertion (IA) operation for Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The Trilean enum value to evaluate.
Returns: Trilean.True if value is Uncertain, Trilean.False otherwise.
method UNANIMOUS(self, comparator)
Evaluates the unanimity between two trilean integer values.
Namespace types: series int, simple int, input int, const int
Parameters:
self (int) : The first integer value.
comparator (int) : The second integer value.
Returns: Integer value of self if both values are equal, 0 (Uncertain) otherwise.
method UNANIMOUS(self, comparator)
Evaluates the unanimity between two Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: series Trilean
Parameters:
self (series Trilean) : The first Trilean enum value.
comparator (series Trilean) : The second Trilean enum value.
Returns: Value of self if both values are equal, Trilean.Uncertain otherwise.
method UNANIMOUS(self)
Evaluates the unanimity among an array of trilean integer values.
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
self (array) : The array of integer values.
Returns: First value if all values are identical, 0 (Uncertain) otherwise.
method UNANIMOUS(self)
Evaluates the unanimity among an array of Trilean enum values.
Namespace types: array
Parameters:
self (array) : The array of Trilean enum values.
Returns: First value if all values are identical, Trilean.Uncertain otherwise.
Fuzzy SMA Trend Analyzer (experimental)[FibonacciFlux]Fuzzy SMA Trend Analyzer (Normalized): Advanced Market Trend Detection Using Fuzzy Logic Theory
Elevate your technical analysis with institutional-grade fuzzy logic implementation
Research Genesis & Conceptual Framework
This indicator represents the culmination of extensive research into applying fuzzy logic theory to financial markets. While traditional technical indicators often produce binary outcomes, market conditions exist on a continuous spectrum. The Fuzzy SMA Trend Analyzer addresses this limitation by implementing a sophisticated fuzzy logic system that captures the nuanced, multi-dimensional nature of market trends.
Core Fuzzy Logic Principles
At the heart of this indicator lies fuzzy logic theory - a mathematical framework designed to handle imprecision and uncertainty:
// Improved fuzzy_triangle function with guard clauses for NA and invalid parameters.
fuzzy_triangle(val, left, center, right) =>
if na(val) or na(left) or na(center) or na(right) or left > center or center > right // Guard checks
0.0
else if left == center and center == right // Crisp set (single point)
val == center ? 1.0 : 0.0
else if left == center // Left-shoulder shape (ramp down from 1 at center to 0 at right)
val >= right ? 0.0 : val <= center ? 1.0 : (right - val) / (right - center)
else if center == right // Right-shoulder shape (ramp up from 0 at left to 1 at center)
val <= left ? 0.0 : val >= center ? 1.0 : (val - left) / (center - left)
else // Standard triangle
math.max(0.0, math.min((val - left) / (center - left), (right - val) / (right - center)))
This implementation of triangular membership functions enables the indicator to transform crisp numerical values into degrees of membership in linguistic variables like "Large Positive" or "Small Negative," creating a more nuanced representation of market conditions.
Dynamic Percentile Normalization
A critical innovation in this indicator is the implementation of percentile-based normalization for SMA deviation:
// ----- Deviation Scale Estimation using Percentile -----
// Calculate the percentile rank of the *absolute* deviation over the lookback period.
// This gives an estimate of the 'typical maximum' deviation magnitude recently.
diff_abs_percentile = ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(math.abs(raw_diff), normLookback, percRank) + 1e-10
// ----- Normalize the Raw Deviation -----
// Divide the raw deviation by the estimated 'typical max' magnitude.
normalized_diff = raw_diff / diff_abs_percentile
// ----- Clamp the Normalized Deviation -----
normalized_diff_clamped = math.max(-3.0, math.min(3.0, normalized_diff))
This percentile normalization approach creates a self-adapting system that automatically calibrates to different assets and market regimes. Rather than using fixed thresholds, the indicator dynamically adjusts based on recent volatility patterns, significantly enhancing signal quality across diverse market environments.
Multi-Factor Fuzzy Rule System
The indicator implements a comprehensive fuzzy rule system that evaluates multiple technical factors:
SMA Deviation (Normalized): Measures price displacement from the Simple Moving Average
Rate of Change (ROC): Captures price momentum over a specified period
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Assesses overbought/oversold conditions
These factors are processed through a sophisticated fuzzy inference system with linguistic variables:
// ----- 3.1 Fuzzy Sets for Normalized Deviation -----
diffN_LP := fuzzy_triangle(normalized_diff_clamped, 0.7, 1.5, 3.0) // Large Positive (around/above percentile)
diffN_SP := fuzzy_triangle(normalized_diff_clamped, 0.1, 0.5, 0.9) // Small Positive
diffN_NZ := fuzzy_triangle(normalized_diff_clamped, -0.2, 0.0, 0.2) // Near Zero
diffN_SN := fuzzy_triangle(normalized_diff_clamped, -0.9, -0.5, -0.1) // Small Negative
diffN_LN := fuzzy_triangle(normalized_diff_clamped, -3.0, -1.5, -0.7) // Large Negative (around/below percentile)
// ----- 3.2 Fuzzy Sets for ROC -----
roc_HN := fuzzy_triangle(roc_val, -8.0, -5.0, -2.0)
roc_WN := fuzzy_triangle(roc_val, -3.0, -1.0, -0.1)
roc_NZ := fuzzy_triangle(roc_val, -0.3, 0.0, 0.3)
roc_WP := fuzzy_triangle(roc_val, 0.1, 1.0, 3.0)
roc_HP := fuzzy_triangle(roc_val, 2.0, 5.0, 8.0)
// ----- 3.3 Fuzzy Sets for RSI -----
rsi_L := fuzzy_triangle(rsi_val, 0.0, 25.0, 40.0)
rsi_M := fuzzy_triangle(rsi_val, 35.0, 50.0, 65.0)
rsi_H := fuzzy_triangle(rsi_val, 60.0, 75.0, 100.0)
Advanced Fuzzy Inference Rules
The indicator employs a comprehensive set of fuzzy rules that encode expert knowledge about market behavior:
// --- Fuzzy Rules using Normalized Deviation (diffN_*) ---
cond1 = math.min(diffN_LP, roc_HP, math.max(rsi_M, rsi_H)) // Strong Bullish: Large pos dev, strong pos roc, rsi ok
strength_SB := math.max(strength_SB, cond1)
cond2 = math.min(diffN_SP, roc_WP, rsi_M) // Weak Bullish: Small pos dev, weak pos roc, rsi mid
strength_WB := math.max(strength_WB, cond2)
cond3 = math.min(diffN_SP, roc_NZ, rsi_H) // Weakening Bullish: Small pos dev, flat roc, rsi high
strength_N := math.max(strength_N, cond3 * 0.6) // More neutral
strength_WB := math.max(strength_WB, cond3 * 0.2) // Less weak bullish
This rule system evaluates multiple conditions simultaneously, weighting them by their degree of membership to produce a comprehensive trend assessment. The rules are designed to identify various market conditions including strong trends, weakening trends, potential reversals, and neutral consolidations.
Defuzzification Process
The final step transforms the fuzzy result back into a crisp numerical value representing the overall trend strength:
// --- Step 6: Defuzzification ---
denominator = strength_SB + strength_WB + strength_N + strength_WBe + strength_SBe
if denominator > 1e-10 // Use small epsilon instead of != 0.0 for float comparison
fuzzyTrendScore := (strength_SB * STRONG_BULL +
strength_WB * WEAK_BULL +
strength_N * NEUTRAL +
strength_WBe * WEAK_BEAR +
strength_SBe * STRONG_BEAR) / denominator
The resulting FuzzyTrendScore ranges from -1 (strong bearish) to +1 (strong bullish), providing a smooth, continuous evaluation of market conditions that avoids the abrupt signal changes common in traditional indicators.
Advanced Visualization with Rainbow Gradient
The indicator incorporates sophisticated visualization using a rainbow gradient coloring system:
// Normalize score to for gradient function
normalizedScore = na(fuzzyTrendScore) ? 0.5 : math.max(0.0, math.min(1.0, (fuzzyTrendScore + 1) / 2))
// Get the color based on gradient setting and normalized score
final_color = get_gradient(normalizedScore, gradient_type)
This color-coding system provides intuitive visual feedback, with color intensity reflecting trend strength and direction. The gradient can be customized between Red-to-Green or Red-to-Blue configurations based on user preference.
Practical Applications
The Fuzzy SMA Trend Analyzer excels in several key applications:
Trend Identification: Precisely identifies market trend direction and strength with nuanced gradation
Market Regime Detection: Distinguishes between trending markets and consolidation phases
Divergence Analysis: Highlights potential reversals when price action and fuzzy trend score diverge
Filter for Trading Systems: Provides high-quality trend filtering for other trading strategies
Risk Management: Offers early warning of potential trend weakening or reversal
Parameter Customization
The indicator offers extensive customization options:
SMA Length: Adjusts the baseline moving average period
ROC Length: Controls momentum sensitivity
RSI Length: Configures overbought/oversold sensitivity
Normalization Lookback: Determines the adaptive calculation window for percentile normalization
Percentile Rank: Sets the statistical threshold for deviation normalization
Gradient Type: Selects the preferred color scheme for visualization
These parameters enable fine-tuning to specific market conditions, trading styles, and timeframes.
Acknowledgments
The rainbow gradient visualization component draws inspiration from LuxAlgo's "Rainbow Adaptive RSI" (used under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license). This implementation of fuzzy logic in technical analysis builds upon Fermi estimation principles to overcome the inherent limitations of crisp binary indicators.
This indicator is shared under Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) license.
Remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct thorough testing before implementing any technical indicator in live trading.
Neural Pulse System [Alpha Extract]Neural Pulse System (NPS)
The Neural Pulse System (NPS) is a custom technical indicator that analyzes price action through a probabilistic lens, offering a dynamic view of bullish and bearish tendencies.
Unlike traditional binary classification models, NPS employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dynamically computed coefficients to produce a smooth probability output ranging from -1 to 1.
Paired with ATR-based bands, this indicator provides an intuitive and volatility-aware approach to trend analysis.
🔶 CALCULATION
The Neural Pulse System utilizes OLS regression to compute probabilities of bullish or bearish price action while incorporating ATR-based bands for volatility context:
Dynamic Coefficients: Coefficients are recalculated in real-time and scaled up to ensure the regression adapts to evolving market conditions.
Ordinary Least Squares (OLS): Uses OLS regression instead of gradient descent for more precise and efficient coefficient estimation.
ATR Bands: Smoothed Average True Range (ATR) bands serve as dynamic boundaries, framing the regression within market volatility.
Probability Output: Instead of a binary result, the output is a continuous probability curve (-1 to 1), helping traders gauge the strength of bullish or bearish momentum.
Formula:
OLS Regression = Line of best fit minimizing squared errors
Probability Signal = Transformed regression output scaled to -1 (bearish) to 1 (bullish)
ATR Bands = Smoothed Average True Range (ATR) to frame price movements within market volatility
🔶 DETAILS
📊 Visual Features:
Probability Curve: Smooth probability signal ranging from -1 (bearish) to 1 (bullish)
ATR Bands: Price action is constrained within volatility bands, preventing extreme deviations
Color-Coded Signals:
Blue to Green: Increasing probability of bullish momentum
Orange to Red: Increasing probability of bearish momentum
Interpretation:
Bullish Bias: Probability output consistently above 0 suggests a bullish trend.
Bearish Bias: Probability output consistently below 0 indicates bearish pressure.
Reversals: Extreme values near -1 or 1, followed by a move toward 0, may signal potential trend reversals.
🔶 EXAMPLES
📌 Trend Identification: Use the probability output to gauge trend direction.
📌Example: On a 1-hour chart, NPS moves from -0.5 to 0.8 as price breaks resistance, signaling a bullish trend.
Reversal Signals: Watch for probability extremes near -1 or 1 followed by a reversal toward 0.
Example: NPS hits 0.9, price touches the upper ATR band, then both retreat—indicating a potential pullback.
📌 Example snapshots:
Volatility Context: ATR bands help assess whether price action aligns with typical market conditions.
Example: During low volatility, the probability signal hovers near 0, and ATR bands tighten, suggesting a potential breakout.
🔶 SETTINGS
Customization Options:
ATR Period – Defines lookback length for ATR calculation (shorter = more responsive, longer = smoother).
ATR Multiplier – Adjusts band width for better volatility capture.
Regression Length – Controls how many bars feed into the coefficient calculation (longer = smoother, shorter = more reactive).
Scaling Factor – Adjusts the strength of regression coefficients.
Output Smoothing – Option to apply a moving average for a cleaner probability curve
MTF Signal XpertMTF Signal Xpert – Detailed Description
Overview:
MTF Signal Xpert is a proprietary, open‑source trading signal indicator that fuses multiple technical analysis methods into one cohesive strategy. Developed after rigorous backtesting and extensive research, this advanced tool is designed to deliver clear BUY and SELL signals by analyzing trend, momentum, and volatility across various timeframes. Its integrated approach not only enhances signal reliability but also incorporates dynamic risk management, helping traders protect their capital while navigating complex market conditions.
Detailed Explanation of How It Works:
Trend Detection via Moving Averages
Dual Moving Averages:
MTF Signal Xpert computes two moving averages—a fast MA and a slow MA—with the flexibility to choose from Simple (SMA), Exponential (EMA), or Hull (HMA) methods. This dual-MA system helps identify the prevailing market trend by contrasting short-term momentum with longer-term trends.
Crossover Logic:
A BUY signal is initiated when the fast MA crosses above the slow MA, coupled with the condition that the current price is above the lower Bollinger Band. This suggests that the market may be emerging from a lower price region. Conversely, a SELL signal is generated when the fast MA crosses below the slow MA and the price is below the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential bearish pressure.
Recent Crossover Confirmation:
To ensure that signals reflect current market dynamics, the script tracks the number of bars since the moving average crossover event. Only crossovers that occur within a user-defined “candle confirmation” period are considered, which helps filter out outdated signals and improves overall signal accuracy.
Volatility and Price Extremes with Bollinger Bands
Calculation of Bands:
Bollinger Bands are calculated using a 20‑period simple moving average as the central basis, with the upper and lower bands derived from a standard deviation multiplier. This creates dynamic boundaries that adjust according to recent market volatility.
Signal Reinforcement:
For BUY signals, the condition that the price is above the lower Bollinger Band suggests an undervalued market condition, while for SELL signals, the price falling below the upper Bollinger Band reinforces the bearish bias. This volatility context adds depth to the moving average crossover signals.
Momentum Confirmation Using Multiple Oscillators
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is computed over 14 periods to determine if the market is in an overbought or oversold state. Only readings within an optimal range (defined by user inputs) validate the signal, ensuring that entries are made during balanced conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD line is compared with its signal line to assess momentum. A bullish scenario is confirmed when the MACD line is above the signal line, while a bearish scenario is indicated when it is below, thus adding another layer of confirmation.
Awesome Oscillator (AO):
The AO measures the difference between short-term and long-term simple moving averages of the median price. Positive AO values support BUY signals, while negative values back SELL signals, offering additional momentum insight.
ADX (Average Directional Index):
The ADX quantifies trend strength. MTF Signal Xpert only considers signals when the ADX value exceeds a specified threshold, ensuring that trades are taken in strongly trending markets.
Optional Stochastic Oscillator:
An optional stochastic oscillator filter can be enabled to further refine signals. It checks for overbought conditions (supporting SELL signals) or oversold conditions (supporting BUY signals), thus reducing ambiguity.
Multi-Timeframe Verification
Higher Timeframe Filter:
To align short-term signals with broader market trends, the script calculates an EMA on a higher timeframe as specified by the user. This multi-timeframe approach helps ensure that signals on the primary chart are consistent with the overall trend, thereby reducing false signals.
Dynamic Risk Management with ATR
ATR-Based Calculations:
The Average True Range (ATR) is used to measure current market volatility. This value is multiplied by a user-defined factor to dynamically determine stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP) levels, adapting to changing market conditions.
Visual SL/TP Markers:
The calculated SL and TP levels are plotted on the chart as distinct colored dots, enabling traders to quickly identify recommended exit points.
Optional Trailing Stop:
An optional trailing stop feature is available, which adjusts the stop loss as the trade moves favorably, helping to lock in profits while protecting against sudden reversals.
Risk/Reward Ratio Calculation:
MTF Signal Xpert computes a risk/reward ratio based on the dynamic SL and TP levels. This quantitative measure allows traders to assess whether the potential reward justifies the risk associated with a trade.
Condition Weighting and Signal Scoring
Binary Condition Checks:
Each technical condition—ranging from moving average crossovers, Bollinger Band positioning, and RSI range to MACD, AO, ADX, and volume filters—is assigned a binary score (1 if met, 0 if not).
Cumulative Scoring:
These individual scores are summed to generate cumulative bullish and bearish scores, quantifying the overall strength of the signal and providing traders with an objective measure of its viability.
Detailed Signal Explanation:
A comprehensive explanation string is generated, outlining which conditions contributed to the current BUY or SELL signal. This explanation is displayed on an on‑chart dashboard, offering transparency and clarity into the signal generation process.
On-Chart Visualizations and Debug Information
Chart Elements:
The indicator plots all key components—moving averages, Bollinger Bands, SL and TP markers—directly on the chart, providing a clear visual framework for understanding market conditions.
Combined Dashboard:
A dedicated dashboard displays key metrics such as RSI, ADX, and the bullish/bearish scores, alongside a detailed explanation of the current signal. This consolidated view allows traders to quickly grasp the underlying logic.
Debug Table (Optional):
For advanced users, an optional debug table is available. This table breaks down each individual condition, indicating which criteria were met or not met, thus aiding in further analysis and strategy refinement.
Mashup Justification and Originality
MTF Signal Xpert is more than just an aggregation of existing indicators—it is an original synthesis designed to address real-world trading complexities. Here’s how its components work together:
Integrated Trend, Volatility, and Momentum Analysis:
By combining moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and multiple oscillators (RSI, MACD, AO, ADX, and an optional stochastic), the indicator captures diverse market dynamics. Each component reinforces the others, reducing noise and filtering out false signals.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
The inclusion of a higher timeframe filter aligns short-term signals with longer-term trends, enhancing overall reliability and reducing the potential for contradictory signals.
Adaptive Risk Management:
Dynamic stop loss and take profit levels, determined using ATR, ensure that the risk management strategy adapts to current market conditions. The optional trailing stop further refines this approach, protecting profits as the market evolves.
Quantitative Signal Scoring:
The condition weighting system provides an objective measure of signal strength, giving traders clear insight into how each technical component contributes to the final decision.
How to Use MTF Signal Xpert:
Input Customization:
Adjust the moving average type and period settings, ATR multipliers, and oscillator thresholds to align with your trading style and the specific market conditions.
Enable or disable the optional stochastic oscillator and trailing stop based on your preference.
Interpreting the Signals:
When a BUY or SELL signal appears, refer to the on‑chart dashboard, which displays key metrics (e.g., RSI, ADX, bullish/bearish scores) along with a detailed breakdown of the conditions that triggered the signal.
Review the SL and TP markers on the chart to understand the associated risk/reward setup.
Risk Management:
Use the dynamically calculated stop loss and take profit levels as guidelines for setting your exit points.
Evaluate the provided risk/reward ratio to ensure that the potential reward justifies the risk before entering a trade.
Debugging and Verification:
Advanced users can enable the debug table to see a condition-by-condition breakdown of the signal generation process, helping refine the strategy and deepen understanding of market dynamics.
Disclaimer:
MTF Signal Xpert is intended for educational and analytical purposes only. Although it is based on robust technical analysis methods and has undergone extensive backtesting, past performance is not indicative of future results. Traders should employ proper risk management and adjust the settings to suit their financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
MTF Signal Xpert represents a comprehensive, original approach to trading signal generation. By blending trend detection, volatility assessment, momentum analysis, multi-timeframe alignment, and adaptive risk management into one integrated system, it provides traders with actionable signals and the transparency needed to understand the logic behind them.
PhiSmoother Moving Average Ribbon [ChartPrime]DSP FILTRATION PRIMER:
DSP (Digital Signal Processing) filtration plays a critical role with financial indication analysis, involving the application of digital filters to extract actionable insights from data. Its primary trading purpose is to distinguish and isolate relevant signals separate from market noise, allowing traders to enhance focus on underlying trends and patterns. By smoothing out price data, DSP filters aid with trend detection, facilitating the formulation of more effective trading techniques.
Additionally, DSP filtration can play an impactful role with detecting support and resistance levels within financial movements. By filtering out noise and emphasizing significant price movements, identifying key levels for entry and exit points become more apparent. Furthermore, DSP methods are instrumental in measuring market volatility, enabling traders to assess volatility levels with improved accuracy.
In summary, DSP filtration techniques are versatile tools for traders and analysts, enhancing decision-making processes in financial markets. By mitigating noise and highlighting relevant signals, DSP filtration improves the overall quality of trading analysis, ultimately leading to better conclusions for market participants.
APPLYING FIR FILTERS:
FIR (Finite Impulse Response) filters are indispensable tools in the realm of financial analysis, particularly for trend identification and characterization within market data. These filters effectively smooth out price fluctuations and noise, enabling traders to discern underlying trends with greater fidelity. By applying FIR filters to price data, robust trading strategies can be developed with grounded trend-following principles, enhancing their ability to capitalize on market movements.
Moreover, FIR filter applications extend into wide-ranging utility within various fields, one being vital for informed decision-making in analysis. These filters help identify critical price levels where assets may tend to stall or reverse direction, providing traders with valuable insights to aid with identification of optimal entry and exit points within their indicator arsenal. FIRs are undoubtedly a cornerstone to modern trading innovation.
Additionally, FIR filters aid in volatility measurement and analysis, allowing traders to gauge market volatility accurately and adjust their risk management approaches accordingly. By incorporating FIR filters into their analytical arsenal, traders can improve the quality of their decision-making processes and achieve better trading outcomes when contending with highly dynamic market conditions.
INTRODUCTORY DEBUT:
ChartPrime's " PhiSmoother Moving Average Ribbon " indicator aims to mark a significant advancement in technical analysis methodology by removing unwanted fluctuations and disturbances while minimizing phase disturbance and lag. This indicator introduces PhiSmoother, a powerful FIR filter in it's own right comparable to Ehlers' SuperSmoother.
PhiSmoother leverages a custom tailored FIR filter to smooth out price fluctuations by mitigating aliasing noise problematic to identification of underlying trends with accuracy. With adjustable parameters such as phase control, traders can fine-tune the indicator to suit their specific analytical needs, providing a flexible and customizable solution.
Mathemagically, PhiSmoother incorporates various color coding preferences, enabling traders to visualize trends more effectively on a volatile landscape. Whether utilizing progression, chameleon, or binary color schemes, you can more fluidly interpret market dynamics and make informed visual decisions regarding entry and exit points based on color-coded plotting.
The indicator's alert system further enhances its utility by providing notifications of specifically chosen filter crossings. Traders can customize alert modes and messages while ensuring they stay informed about potential opportunities aligned with their trading style.
Overall, the "PhiSmoother Moving Average Ribbon" visually stands out as a revolutionary mechanism for technical analysis, offering traders a comprehensive solution for trend identification, visualization, and alerting within financial markets to achieve advantageous outcomes.
NOTEWORTHY SETTINGS FEATURES:
Price Source Selection - The indicator offers flexibility in choosing the price source for analysis. Traders can select from multiple options.
Phase Control Parameter - One of the notable standout features of this indicator is the phase control parameter. Traders can fine-tune the phase or lag of the indicator to adapt it to different market conditions or timeframes. This feature enables optimization of the indicator's responsiveness to price movements and align it with their specific trading tactics.
Coloring Preferences - Another magical setting is the coloring features, one being "Chameleon Color Magic". Traders can customize the color scheme of the indicator based on their visual preferences or to improve interpretation. The indicator offers options such as progression, chameleon, or binary color schemes, all having versatility to dynamically visualize market trends and patterns. Two colors may be specifically chosen to reduce overlay indicator interference while also contrasting for your visual acuity.
Alert Controls - The indicator provides diverse alert controls to manage alerts for specific market events, depending on their trading preferences.
Alertable Crossings: Receive an alert based on selectable predefined crossovers between moving average neighbors
Customizable Alert Messages: Traders can personalize alert messages with preferred information details
Alert Frequency Control: The frequency of alerts is adjustable for maximum control of timely notifications
Pattern Probability with EMA FilterThe provided code is a custom indicator that identifies specific price patterns on a chart and uses a 14-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a filter to display only certain patterns based on the EMA trend direction. These code identifies patterns display them as upward and downward arrows indicates potential price corrections and short term trend reversals in the direction of the arrow. Use with indicators such as RSI that inform overbought and oversold condition to add reliability and confluence.
Code Explanation:
The code first calculates three values 'a', 'b', and 'c' based on the difference between the current high, low, and close prices, respectively, and their respective previous moving average values.
Binary values are then assigned to 'a', 'b', and 'c', where each value is set to 1 if it's greater than 0, and 0 otherwise.
The 'pattern_type' is determined based on the binary values of 'a', 'b', and 'c', combining them into a single number (ranging from 0 to 7) to represent different price patterns.
The code calculates a 14-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the closing price.
It determines the EMA trend direction by comparing the current EMA value with the previous EMA value, setting 'ema_going_up' to true if the EMA is going up and 'ema_going_down' to true if the EMA is going down.
The indicator then plots arrows on the chart for specific pattern_type values while considering the EMA trend direction as a filter. It displays different colored arrows for each pattern_type.
The 14-period EMA is also plotted on the chart, with the color changing to green when the EMA is going up and red when the EMA is going down.
Concept:
pattern_type = 0: H- L- C- (Downward trend continuation) - Indicates a continuation of the downward trend, suggesting further losses ahead.
pattern_type = 1: H- L- C+ (Likely trend change: Downwards to upwards) - Implies the upward trend or price movement change.
pattern_type = 2: H- L+ C- (Likely trend change: Upwards to downwards) - Suggests a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, but further confirmation is needed.
pattern_type = 3: H- L+ C+ (Trend uncertainty: Potential reversal) - Indicates uncertainty in the trend, potential for a reversal, but further price action confirmation is required.
pattern_type = 4: H+ L- C- (Downward trend continuation with lower volatility) - Suggests the downward trend may continue, but with reduced price swings or lower volatility.
pattern_type = 5: H+ L- C+ (Likely trend change: Downwards to upwards) - Implies a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend, with buying interest increasing.
(pattern_type = 6: H+ L+ C- (Likely trend change: Upwards to downwards) - Suggests a potential reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, with selling pressure increasing.
pattern_type = 7: H+ L+ C+ (Upward trend continuation) - Indicates a continuation of the upward trend, suggesting further gains ahead.
In the US market, when analyzing a 15-minute chart, we observe the following proportions of the different pattern_type occurrences: The code will plot the low frequency patterns (P1 - P6)
P0 (H- L- C-): 37.60%
P1 (H- L- C+): 3.60%
P2 (H- L+ C-): 3.10%
P3 (H- L+ C+): 3.40%
P4 (H+ L- C-): 2.90%
P5 (H+ L- C+): 2.70%
P6 (H+ L+ C-): 3.50%
P7 (H+ L+ C+): 43.50%
When analyzing higher time frames, such as daily or weekly charts, the occurrence of these patterns is expected to be even lower, but they may carry more significant implications due to their rarity and potential impact on longer-term trends.
TMA Legacy - "The Arty"This is a script based on the original "The Arty" indicator by PhoenixBinary.
The Phoenix Binary community and the TMA community built this version to be public code for the community for further use and revision after the reported passing of Phoenix Binary (The community extends our condolences to Phoenix's family).
The intended uses are the same as the original but some calculations are different and may not act or signal the same as the original.
Description of the indicator from original posting.
This indicator was inspired by Arty and Christy .
TMA-LegacyThis is a script based on the original TMA- RSI Divergence indicator by PhoenixBinary.
The Phoenix Binary community and the TMA community built this version to be public code for the community for further use and revision after the reported passing of Phoenix Binary (The community extends our condolences to Phoenix's family.
The intended uses are the same as the original but some calculations are different and may not act or signal the same as the original.
Description of the indicator from original posting.
This indicator was inspired by Arty and Christy .
█ COMPONENTS
Here is a brief overview of the indicator from the original posting:
1 — RSI Divergence
Arty uses the RSI divergence as a tool to find entry points and possible reversals. He doesn't use the traditional overbought/oversold. He uses a 50 line. This indicator includes a 50 line and a floating 50 line.
The floating 50 line is a multi-timeframe smoothed moving average . Price is not linear, therefore, your 50 line shouldn't be either.
The RSI line is using a dynamic color algo that shows current control of the market as well as possible turning points in the market.
2 — Smoothed RSI Divergence
The Smoothed RSI Divergence is a slower RSI with different calculations to smooth out the RSI line. This gives a different perspective of price action and more of a long term perspective of the trend. When crosses of the floating 50 line up with the traditional RSI crossing floating 50.
3 — Momentum Divergence
This one will take a little bit of time to master. But, once you master this, and combined with the other two, damn these entries get downright lethal!
Machine Learning: Perceptron-based strategyPerceptron-based strategy
Description:
The Learning Perceptron is the simplest possible artificial neural network (ANN), consisting of just a single neuron and capable of learning a certain class of binary classification problems. The idea behind ANNs is that by selecting good values for the weight parameters (and the bias), the ANN can model the relationships between the inputs and some target.
Generally, ANN neurons receive a number of inputs, weight each of those inputs, sum the weights, and then transform that sum using a special function called an activation function. The output of that activation function is then either used as the prediction (in a single neuron model) or is combined with the outputs of other neurons for further use in more complex models.
The purpose of the activation function is to take the input signal (that’s the weighted sum of the inputs and the bias) and turn it into an output signal. Think of this activation function as firing (activating) the neuron when it returns 1, and doing nothing when it returns 0. This sort of computation is accomplished with a function called step function: f(z) = {1 if z > 0 else 0}. This function then transforms any weighted sum of the inputs and converts it into a binary output (either 1 or 0). The trick to making this useful is finding (learning) a set of weights that lead to good predictions using this activation function.
Training our perceptron is simply a matter of initializing the weights to zero (or random value) and then implementing the perceptron learning rule, which just updates the weights based on the error of each observation with the current weights. This has the effect of moving the classifier’s decision boundary in the direction that would have helped it classify the last observation correctly. This is achieved via a for loop which iterates over each observation, making a prediction of each observation, calculating the error of that prediction and then updating the weights accordingly. In this way, weights are gradually updated until they converge. Each sweep through the training data is called an epoch.
In this script the perceptron is retrained on each new bar trying to classify this bar by drawing the moving average curve above or below the bar.
This script was tested with BTCUSD, USDJPY, and EURUSD.
Note: TradingViews's playback feature helps to see this strategy in action.
Warning: Signals ARE repainting.
Style tags: Trend Following, Trend Analysis
Asset class: Equities, Futures, ETFs, Currencies and Commodities
Dataset: FX Minutes/Hours+/Days
Relative Falling three Methods IndicatorAbstract
This script measure the related speed between rising and falling.
This script can replace binary Falling Three Methods detector and, report continuous value and estimate potential trend direction.
My suggestion of using this script is combining it with trading emotion.
Introduction
Falling Three Methods (F3M) is a candlestick pattern.
Many trading courses say traders can regard it as predicting falling will continue.
However, it is not easy to see perfect Falling Three Methods pattern from charts.
Therefore, we need an alternative method to measure it.
We can use the observation that falling is faster than rising during those time.
When falling is faster than rising, some long ( buy , call , higher , upper ) position owners may worry the price will fall very much suddenly.
When rising is faster than falling, some traders may worry they may miss buy opportunities.
Computing Related Falling Three Methods Indicator
(1) The value of rising and falling
In this script, open price is replaced with previous close price.
If the previous price is equal to the close price, than both rising and falling are equal to high-low.
If the previous price is lower than the close price, than the falling value becomes smaller, high-close+previous-low.
If the previous price is higher than the close price, than the rising value becomes smaller, high-previous+close-low.
(2) Area of value (aov)
Area of value is equal to highest-lowest. The previous close price is included.
(3) Compute weight and filter noise
We need a threshold for the noise filter. The default setting is aov/length, where length means how many days are counted.
When a rising or falling value <= threshold, it is not counted.
When a rising or falling value > threshold, the counted value = original value - threshold
and its weight = min ( counted value , threshold )
(4) compute speed
Rising speed = sum ( counted rising value ) / sum ( rising weight )
Falling speed = sum ( counted falling value ) / sum ( falling weight )
(5) Final result
Final result = Rising speed / ( Rising speed + Falling speed ) * 100 - 50
I move the middle level to 0 because 0 axis is always visible unless you cannot see negative values or you cannot see positive values.
Parameters
Length : how many days are counted. The default value is 16 just because 16=4*4, using binary characteristic.
Multi : the multiplier of noise threshold. Threshold applied = default threshold * multi
src : current not used
Conclusion
Related Falling Three Methods Indicator can measure the related speed between rising and falling.
I hope this indicator can help us to evaluate the possibility of trend continue or reversal and potential breakout direction.
After all, we care how trading emotion control the price movement and therefore we can take advantage to it.
Reference
How to trade with Falling Three Methods pattern
How to trade with Related Strength Indicator
