Quadratic & Linear Time Series Regression [SS]Hey everyone,
Releasing the Quadratic/Linear Time Series regression indicator.
About the indicator:
Most of you will be familiar with the conventional linear regression trend boxes (see below):
This is an awesome feature in Tradingview and there are quite a few indicators that follow this same principle.
However, because of the exponential and cyclical nature of stocks, linear regression tends to not be the best fit for stock time series data. From my experience, stocks tend to fit better with quadratic (or curvlinear) regression, which there really isn't a lot of resources for.
To put it into perspective, let's take SPX on the 1 month timeframe and plot a linear regression trend from 1930 till now:
You can see that its not really a great fit because of the exponential growth that SPX has endured since the 1930s. However, if we take a quadratic approach to the time series data, this is what we get:
This is a quadratic time series version, extended by up to 3 standard deviations. You can see that it is a bit more fitting.
Quadratic regression can also be helpful for looking at cycle patterns. For example, if we wanted to plot out how the S&P has performed from its COVID crash till now, this is how it would look using a linear regression approach:
But this is how it would look using the quadratic approach:
So which is better?
Both linear regression and quadratic regression are pivotal and important tools for traders. Sometimes, linear regression is more appropriate and others quadratic regression is more appropriate.
In general, if you are long dating your analysis and you want to see the trajectory of a ticker further back (over the course of say, 10 or 15 years), quadratic regression is likely going to be better for most stocks.
If you are looking for short term trades and short term trend assessments, linear regression is going to be the most appropriate.
The indicator will do both and it will fit the linear regression model to the data, which is different from other linreg indicators. Most will only find the start of the strongest trend and draw from there, this will fit the model to whatever period of time you wish, it just may not be that significant.
But, to keep it easy, the indicator will actually tell you which model will work better for the data you are selecting. You can see it in the example in the main chart, and here:
Here we see that the indicator indicates a better fit on the quadratic model.
And SPY during its recent uptrend:
For that, let's take a look at the Quadratic Vs the Linear, to see how they compare:
Quadratic:
Linear:
Functions:
You will see that you have 2 optional tables. The statistics table which shows you:
The R Squared to assess for Variance.
The Correlation to assess for the strength of the trend.
The Confidence interval which is set at a default of 1.96 but can be toggled to adjust for the confidence reading in the settings menu. (The confidence interval gives us a range of values that is likely to contain the true value of the coefficient with a certain level of confidence).
The strongest relationship (quadratic or linear).
Then there is the range table, which shows you the anticipated price ranges based on the distance in standard deviations from the mean.
The range table will also display to you how often a ticker has spent in each corresponding range, whether that be within the anticipated range, within 1 SD, 2 SD or 3 SD.
You can select up to 3 additional standard deviations to plot on the chart and you can manually select the 3 standard deviations you want to plot. Whether that be 1, 2, 3, or 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5, or any combination, you just enter the standard deviations in the settings menu and the indicator will adjust the price targets and plotted bands according to your preferences. It will also count the amount of time the ticker spent in that range based on your own selected standard deviation inputs.
Tips on Use:
This works best on the larger timeframes (1 hour and up), with RTH enabled.
The max lookback is 5,000 candles.
If you want to ascertain a longer term trend (over years to months), its best to adjust your chart timeframe to the weekly and/or monthly perspective.
And that's the indicator! Hopefully you all find it helpful.
Let me know your questions and suggestions below!
Safe trades to all!
In den Scripts nach "1930年+股市反弹" suchen
Ichimoku PourSamadi Signal [TradingFinder] KijunSen Magic Number🔵 Introduction
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system is one of the most comprehensive market analysis tools ever created. Developed by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese journalist in the 1930s, its purpose was to allow traders to recognize the balance between price, time, and momentum at a single glance. (In Japanese, Ichimoku literally means “one look.”)
At the core of the system lie five key components: Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line), Kijun-sen (Baseline), Chikou Span (Lagging Line), and the two leading spans, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B, which together form the well-known Kumo or cloud representing both temporal structure and equilibrium zones in the market.
Although Ichimoku is commonly used to identify trends and support/resistance levels, a deeper layer of time philosophy exists within it. Ichimoku was not designed solely for price analysis but equally for time analysis.
In the classical model, the numerical cycles 9, 26, 52 reflect the natural rhythm of the market originally based on the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s trading schedule in the 1930s.
These values repeat across the system’s calculations, forming the foundation of Ichimoku’s time symmetry where price and time ultimately seek equilibrium.
In recent years, modern analysts have explored new approaches to extract time-based turning points from Ichimoku’s structure. One such approach is the analysis of flat segments on the Kijun-sen and Senkou B lines.
Whenever one of these lines remains flat for a period, it signals temporary balance between buyers and sellers; when the flat breaks, the market exits equilibrium and a new cycle begins.
This indicator is built precisely upon that philosophy. Following the timing methodology introduced by M.A. Poursamadi, the focus shifts away from price signals and line crossovers toward identifying flat periods on Kijun-sen (period 52) as time anchors.
From the first candle that changes the line’s slope, the tool begins a temporal count using a fixed sequence of key numbers: 5, 9, 13, 17, 26, 35, 43, 52, 63, 72, 81, 90.
Derived from both classical Ichimoku cycles and empirical testing, these numbers mark potential timing nodes where a market wave may end, a correction may begin, or a new leg may form.
Thus, this method serves not merely as another Ichimoku tool but as a temporal metronome for market structure a way to visualize moments when the market is ready to change rhythm, often before candles reveal it.
🔵 How to Use
The Kijun Timing BoX is built entirely on Ichimoku’s concept of time analysis.
Its core idea is that within every flat segment of the Kijun-sen, the market enters a temporary balance between opposing forces.
When that flat breaks, a new time cycle begins. From that first breakout candle, the indicator starts counting forward through the predefined time sequence(5, 9, 13, 17, 26, 35, 43, 52, 63, 72, 81, 90).
This counting framework creates a temporal map of market behavior, where each number represents an area where meaningful price fluctuations often occur.
A “meaningful fluctuation” does not necessarily imply reversal or continuation; rather, it marks a moment when the market’s internal energy balance shifts, typically visible as noticeable reactions on lower timeframes.
🟣 Identifying the Anchor Point
The first step is recognizing a valid flat zone on the Kijun-sen.
When this line remains flat for several candles and then changes slope, the indicator marks that bar as the Anchor, initiating the time count.
From that point onward, vertical gray lines appear at each interval in the key-number sequence, visualizing the time nodes ahead.
🟣 Reading the Timing Lines
Each numbered line represents a timing node a temporal point where a change in price rhythm is statistically more likely to occur.
At these nodes, the market may :
Enter a consolidation or minor correction phase.
Develop range-bound movement.
Or simply alter the speed and intensity of its move.
These behaviors do not imply a specific direction; they only highlight zones where time-based activity tends to cluster, giving traders a clearer view of cyclical rhythm.
🟣 Applying Time Analysis
The indicator’s primary use is to observe temporal order, not to predict price direction.
By tracking the distance between Anchors and the reactions that appear near major timing lines, traders can empirically identify each market’s characteristic rhythm—its own time DNA.
For example, one asset may consistently show significant fluctuations around the 13- and 26-bar marks,while another might react closer to 9 or 52. Recognizing such patterns helps traders understand how long typical cycles last before new phases of volatility emerge.
🟣 Combining with Other Tools
The indicator does not generate buy/sell signals on its own.
Its best use is in combination with price- or structure-based methods, to see whether meaningful price reactions occur around the same timing nodes.
In practice, it helps distinguish structured time-based fluctuations from random, noise-driven moves an insight often overlooked in conventional market analysis.
🔵 Settings
🟣 Logical Settings
KijunSen Period : Defines the baseline period used for timing analysis. Default = 52. It is the main line for detecting flats and generating time anchors.
Flat Event Filter : Controls how flat segments are validated before triggering a new timing event.
All : Every flat triggers a new Timing Box.
Automatic : Only flats longer than the historical average are used (recommended).
Custom : User manually defines the minimum flat length via Custom Count.
Update Timing Analysis BoX Per Event : If enabled, a new Timing Box is drawn each time a new flat event occurs. If disabled, the box completes its 90-bar window before refreshing.
🟣 Ichimoku Settings
TenkanSen Period : Defines the period for the Conversion Line (Tenkan-sen). Default = 9.
KijunSen Period : Sets the standard Ichimoku baseline (not the timing line). Default = 26.
Span B Period : Defines the period for Senkou Span B, the slower cloud boundary. Default = 52.
Shift Lines : Offsets cloud projection into the future. Default = 26.
🟣 Display Settings
Users can show or hide all Ichimoku lines Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, Chikou Span, Span A, and Span B as well as the Ichimoku Cloud.
They can also customize the color of each element to match personal chart preferences and improve visibility.
🔵 Conclusion
This analytical approach transforms Ichimoku’s time philosophy into a visual and measurable framework. A flat Kijun-sen represents a moment of market equilibrium; when its slope shifts, a new temporal cycle begins.
The purpose is not to forecast price direction but to highlight periods when meaningful fluctuations are more likely to develop.
Through this perspective, traders can observe the hidden rhythm of market time and expand their analysis beyond price into a broader time-cycle dimension.
Ultimately, the method revives Ichimoku’s original principle: the market can only be truly understood through the simultaneous harmony of price, time, and balance.
US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
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Sweller, J. (1988). Cognitive load during problem solving: Effects on learning. Cognitive Science, 12(2), 257-285.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information. Graphics Press.
Yardeni, E. (2003). Stock valuation models. Topical Study, 38. Yardeni Research.
Ichimoku [Gu5]Original Ichimoku Kinko Hyo created by Goichi Hosoda 1930
Knowing how to interpret the Ichimoku indicator can be complicated. I hope this version is more intuitive
Use Ichimoku to determine the trend of the day
When the market is above the cloud, and Tenkan (green line) crosses over Kijun (red Line), there is a Bullish Trend . When Tenkan crosses under Kijun, the trend ends.
When the market is under the cloud, and Tenkan crosses under Kijun; There is a Bearish Trend . When Tenkan crosses over Kijun, the trend ends.
When the market crosses the cloud (orange bars), there is no trend
The default setting is 9, 26 and 52. For cryptocurrencies (24/7 market), you can change it to 10, 30 and 60 periods.
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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo fue creado por Goichi Hosoda en 1930
Saber interpretar al indicador Ichimoku puede ser complicado. Espero esta version sea mas intuitiva
Use Ichimoku para determinar la tendencia del día, y operar solo a favor de la misma
Cuando el mercado esta sobre la nube y Tenkan (linea verde) cruza sobre Kijun (linea roja), la tendencia es alcista. Cuando Tenkan cruza bajo Kijun, termina la tendencia.
Cuando el mercado esta bajo la nube y Tenkan cruza bajo Kijun, la tendencia es bajista. Cuando Tenkan cruza sobre Kijun, termina la tendencia.
Cuando el mercado atraviesa la nube (barras naranjas), no hay tendencia
Por defecto, el seteo es 9, 26 y 52. Para criptomonedas, puede cambiarlo a 10, 30 y 60 períodos
Wyckoff Accumulation Distribution Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution Indicator (RSI-Based)
This Pine Script is a technical analysis indicator built around the Wyckoff Method, designed to detect accumulation and distribution phases using RSI (Relative Strength Index) and pivot points. It automatically marks key structural turning points on the chart and highlights relevant zones with colored boxes.
What Does It Do?
Draws accumulation and distribution boxes based on RSI behavior.
Automatically detects Wyckoff structural signals:
SC (Selling Climax)
AR (Automatic Rally)
ST (Secondary Test)
BC (Buying Climax)
DAR (Automatic Reaction)
DST (Secondary Test - Distribution)
Identifies trend transitions by detecting sideways RSI movement.
Attempts to detect spring and UTAD-like deviations based on RSI reversals.
Uses RSI extremes in conjunction with pivot points to generate Wyckoff signals.
How Does It Work?
RSI Zone: It identifies sideways markets when RSI stays within ±20 of the 50 level (this range is configurable).
Pivot Points: It detects pivot highs/lows that sync with RSI values (pivotLen is adjustable).
Trend Box Drawing:
When RSI exits the sideways zone, the script draws a gray box between the highest high and lowest low within that range.
If RSI breaks upward, the box becomes green (Accumulation); if downward, it becomes red (Distribution).
Wyckoff Structural Points:
SC/BC: Detected when a pivot occurs with RSI below/above a threshold.
AR/DAR: The next opposite pivot after SC or BC.
ST/DST: The next same-direction pivot after AR or DAR.
How to Use It
Works best on 4H or daily charts for more reliable signals. Shorter timeframes may generate noise.
Primarily used for interpreting RSI structures through the lens of Wyckoff methodology.
Box colors help quickly identify market phase:
Green box: Likely Accumulation
Red box: Likely Distribution
Triangular markers show key signals:
SC, AR, ST: Accumulation points
BC, DAR, DST: Distribution points
Use these signals alongside price action to manually interpret Wyckoff phases.
image.binance.vision
image.binance.vision
What Is the Wyckoff Method?
The Wyckoff Method, developed in the 1930s by Richard Wyckoff, is a market analysis approach that focuses on supply and demand dynamics behind price movements.
Wyckoff’s 5 Phases:
Accumulation: Smart money gradually buying at low prices.
Markup: Price begins trending upwards.
Distribution: Smart money selling to retail traders.
Markdown: Downtrend begins as supply outweighs demand.
Re-accumulation / Re-distribution: Trend-continuation phases with consolidations.
This indicator is specifically designed to detect phase 1 (Accumulation) and phase 3 (Distribution).
Extra Notes
Repainting is minimal, as pivots are confirmed using historical candles.
Labels use plotshape for a clean, minimalist visual style.
Other Wyckoff events (like SOS, LPS, UT, UTAD) could be added in future updates.
This script does not generate buy/sell signals; it is meant for structural interpretation.
SemiCircle Cycle Notation PivotsFor decades, traders have sought to decode the rhythm of the markets through cycle theory. From the groundbreaking work of HM Gartley in the 1930s to modern-day cycle trading tools on TradingView, the concept remains the same: markets move in repeating waves with larger cycles influencing smaller ones in a fractal-like structure, and understanding their timing gives traders an edge to better anticipate future price movements🔮.
Traditional cycle analysis has always been manual, requiring traders to painstakingly plot semicircles, diamonds, or sine waves to estimate pivot points and time reversals. Drawing tools like semicircle & sine wave projections exist on TradingView, but they lack automation—forcing traders to adjust cycle lengths by eye, often leading to inconsistencies.
This is where SemiCircle Cycle Notation Pivots indicator comes in. Semicircle cycle chart notation appears to have evolved as a practical visualization tool among cycle theorists rather than being pioneered by a single individual; some key influences include HM Gartley, WD Gann, JM Hurst, Walter Bressert, and RayTomes. Built upon LonesomeTheBlue's foundational ZigZag Waves indicator , this indicator takes cycle visualization to the next level by dynamically detecting price pivots and then automatically plotting semicircles based on real-time cycle length calculations & expected rhythm of price action over time.
Key Features:
Automated Cycle Detection: The indicator identifies pivot points based on your preference—highs, lows, or both—and plots semicircle waves that correspond to Hurst's cycle notation.
Customizable Cycle Lengths: Tailor the analysis to your trading strategy with adjustable cycle lengths, defaulting to 10, 20, and 40 bars, allowing for flexibility across various timeframes and assets.
Dynamic Wave Scaling: The semicircle waves adapt to different price structures, ensuring that the visualization remains proportional to the detected cycle lengths and aiding in the identification of potential reversal points.
Automated Cycle Detection: Dynamically identifies price pivot points and automatically adjusts offsets based on real-time cycle length calculations, ensuring precise semicircle wave alignment with market structure.
Color-Coded Cycle Tiers: Each cycle tier is distinctly color-coded, enabling quick differentiation and a clearer understanding of nested market cycles.
Psychological levels (Bank levels) PsychoLevels v3 - TartigradiaPsychological levels (Bank levels) plots the closest "round" price levels above and below current price, based on neuroscience research of how humans intuitively calculate in logarithms.
Psychological levels, also called bank levels, are "round" price numbers, by truncating after the nth leftmost digits, around which price often experience resistance or support, because traders and investors tend to set orders around these round numbers.
The calculation done here is fully automatic and dynamic, contrary to other similar scripts, this one uses a mathematical calculation that extracts the 1, 2 or 3 leftmost digits and calculate the previous and next level by incrementing/decrementing these digits. This means it works for any symbol under any price range.
This approach is based on neuroscience research, which found that human brains intuitively approximate numbers on a logarithmic scale, adults and children alike, and similarly to macaques, for more info see Numerical Cognition , Weber-Fechner Law , Zipf law .
For example, if price is at 0.0421, the next major price level is 0.05 and medium one is 0.043. For another asset currently priced at 19354, the next and previous major price levels are 20000 and 10000 respectively, and the next/previous medium levels are 20000 and 19000, and the next/previous weak levels are 19400 and 19300.
IMPORTANT: Please enable "Scale price chart only" in the chart's scale's options, as otherwise major levels may make the chart's scale very small and hard to read.
How it works
At any time, there are 3 levels of strength (1 leftmost digit, 2 leftmost digits, 3 leftmost digits) represented by different sizes, and 3 directional levels for each of these strengths (level above, level below, and half-level) represented by different colors and positions, around current price.
Indeed, contrary to other similar price levels scripts, we do not plot ALL price levels at all times, because otherwise the chart becomes wayyy too cluttered, and also it's highly processing intensive to plot so many lines. So we here use a dynamical approach: we plot only the relevant levels, the closest ones according to current price.
Hence, when a level disappears, it does not mean that it does not exist anymore, but simply that we are not drawing it right now because it is not pertinent for the current price movement (ie, too far away).
Breakouts can be detected in two different ways depending on if SMA is set to a value higher than 1 or not: if SMA == 1, then there is no smoothing, so the levels adapt instantaneously to the current price, so to detect breakout, you should refer to the levels at the previous tick and whether they were broken by current tick's price; if SMA > 1, then there is some smoothing, and so the levels will stay in-place even if there is a breakout, so it's easier to spot breakouts without having to look at the previous ticks, but on the other hand you won't see the new levels for the new price range until after a few more ticks for the smoothing window to adapt. Hence, by default, smoothing is disabled, so that you can see the currently pertinent levels at all time, even right after or during a breakout.
By default, the strong above level is in green, strong below level is in red, medium above level is in blue, medium below level is in yellow, and weak levels aren't displayed but can be. Half levels are also displayed, in a darker color. Strong levels are increments of the first leftmost digit (eg, 10000 to 20000), medium levels are increments of the second leftmost digit (eg, 19000 to 20000), and weak levels of the third leftmost digit (eg, 19100 to 19200). Instead of plotting all the psychological levels all at once as a grid, which makes the chart unintelligible, here the levels adapt dynamically around the current price, so that they show the above/below/half levels relatively to the current price.
Indeed, "half-levels" are also displayed (eg, medium level can also display 19500 instead of only 19000 or 20000). This was made because otherwise the gap between two levels was too big, especially for the strongest levels (eg, there was no major level between 20000 and 30000, but with a half-step we also get a half-level at 25000, and empirically price tends to respect these half levels - I also tried quarter levels but empirically the results were not good). In addition to this hard-coded half-level, you can also create more subdivisions (eg, quarter levels) by setting the simple moving average to a value higher than 1.
The script can be made to run on the daily timeframe whatever the current chart's timeframe is, to reduce the variability in levels, to make it less noisy than intraday price movement. But by default, the chart resolution is used, because I empirically found that the levels found with this indicator work on all time resolutions quite well.
The step can be adjusted to increase the gap between levels, eg, if you want to display one every 2 levels then input step = 2 (eg, 22000, 24000, 26000, etc), or if you want to display quarter levels, input 0.25 (eg, 22000, 22250, 22500, etc). The default values should fit most use cases and cover most psychological levels.
How to read
Focust first on bigger dotted levels, they are stronger and more likely to cause a rebound or a major event or price to stay at this level.
Remember that it's not enough to just look at levels, the context is important, because levels have various effects depending on current price movement: if price is above a level, the level is a support on which price can rebound; if price is below a level, the level is a resistance on which price can rebound (or break); and finally sometimes price also stays hovering around a level for some time.
Levels closer to 9 are less weaker, and levels closer to 0 are stronger, according to Zipf law. This is now reflected since v3 in the transparency, levels that are closer to 9 will be more transparent.
The switch in color for the same level illustrates how a level switches from being a support to a resistance and inversely. Eg, if a major level turns from green to red, then it changed from being a resistance (above) to a support (below).
As is well known in trading, longer standing levels are stronger. This indicator provides a direct illustration: in practice, the number of consecutive dots on the same line influences the strength of the level: the longer the chain of dots, the more you can expect this price level to be significant. The length does not mean the level will necessarily hold, but that other traders are likely to monitor if it holds, and if not then price will break down. Hence, longer levels are good spots to place stop losses, or to enter trades depending on your strategy. In general, a single dot is not enough to consider a level significant, but 2 or more is a good enough level, and 10+ is a strong level. Intuitively, this makes sense, and is what pro traders do: the longer a level is tested, the stronger it is. This indicator can visually represent this intuition and allows to use it as a more systematic trading signal.
Motivation
I initially made the first version of the PsychoLevels indicator mainly to train with PineScript, but I found it surprisingly accurate to define levels that are respected by price movements. So I guess it can be useful for new traders and experienced traders alike, as it's easy to forget that psychological levels can often be as strong if not stronger than technical levels. It can also be used to quickly screen other minor assets for trading opportunities. For example, a hybrid strategy would be to manually define levels on BTCUSD but using this script to automatically define levels in crypto altcoins and quickly screen them for a trade opportunity that can be greater than with BTCUSD but with the same trend.
Personally, although initially I did not believe an automated tool would work well for this purpose, I could now empirically verify that it is quite reliable for the purpose of detecting levels, and so I use it all the time to find the levels automatically and help me monitor them like a hawk, so that I only have to draw uber major levels, the ones that last between cycles and that are hard to autodetect, but otherwise all daily/weekly levels are usually covered. However, trendlines must still be drawn manually or with another indicator (but note that up to now I have found none that worked well enough), as PsychoLevels only draws levels (ie, horizontal lines, not oblique ones!).
Differences with the previous version PsychoLevels v2
price levels now have a transparency according to their importance for the human brain: numbers closer to 9 are weaker, and numbers closer to 0 are stronger and represent a major psychological threshold (eg, that's why prices marked as $9.99 sell better than $10.00). This option can be disabled to get the exact same behavior as v2.
modularized and typed code
PsychoLevels v2 can be found here:
Psychological levels (Bank levels) PsychoLevels v2 - TartigradiaPsychological levels (Bank levels) plots "round" price levels above and below current price, by truncating after the nth leftmost digits, based on neuroscience research of how humans intuitively calculate in logarithms.
Psychological levels, also called bank levels, are "round" price numbers around which price often experience resistance or support, because traders and investors tend to set orders around these round numbers.
Calculation here is fully automatic and dynamic, contrary to other similar scripts, this one uses a mathematical calculation that extracts the 1, 2 or 3 leftmost digits and calculate the previous and next level by incrementing/decrementing these digits. This means it works for any symbol under any price range.
This approach is based on neuroscience research, which found that human brains intuitively approximate numbers on a logarithmic scale, adults and children alike, and similarly to macaques, for more info see Numerical Cognition , Weber-Fechner Law , Zipf law.
For example, if price is at 0.0421, the next major price level is 0.05 and medium one is 0.043. For another asset currently priced at 19354, the next and previous major price levels are 20000 and 10000 respectively, and the next/previous medium levels are 20000 and 19000, and the next/previous weak levels are 19400 and 19300.
Usage:
* By default, strong upper level is in green, strong lower level is in red, medium upper level is in blue, medium lower level is in yellow, and weak levels aren't displayed but can be. Half levels are also displayed, in a darker color. Strong levels are increments of the first leftmost digit (eg, 10000 to 20000), medium levels are increments of the second leftmost digit (eg, 19000 to 20000), and weak levels of the third leftmost digit (eg, 19100 to 19200). Instead of plotting all the psychological levels all at once as a grid, which makes the chart unintelligible, here the levels adapt dynamically around the current price, so that they show the upper/lower levels relatively to the current price.
* A simple moving average is implemented, so that "half-levels" are also displayed when relevant (eg, medium level can also display 19500 instead of only 19000 or 20000). This can be disabled by setting smoothing to 1.
* By default, the script runs on the daily timeframe, whatever the current chart's timeframe is. This is to reduce the variability in levels, to make it less noisy than intraday price movement, but this can be changed in the settings.
* The step can be adjusted to increase the gap between levels, eg, if you want to display one every 2 levels then input step = 2 (eg, 22000, 24000, 26000, etc), or if you want to display quarter levels, input 0.25 (eg, 22000, 22250, 22500, etc). The default values should fit most use cases and cover most psychological levels.
I made this script mainly to train with PineScript, but I found it surprisingly accurate to define levels that are respected by price movements. So I guess it can be useful for new traders and experienced traders alike, as it's easy to forget that psychological levels can often be as strong if not stronger than technical levels. It can also be used to quickly screen other minor assets for trading opportunities. For example, a hybrid strategy would be to manually define levels on BTCUSD but using this script to automatically define levels in crypto altcoins and quickly screen them for a trade opportunity that can be greater than with BTCUSD but with the same trend.
Changes compared to v1:
* Deduplicated redundant calculations and hence faster script.
* Added half-step levels, which allows to more easily see breakouts (because the levels are still on-screen).
* All steps are now configuration on the GUI.
* Revamped color scheme.
* And major reasons to post as a separate v2 script rather than updating: because we can't update the original description nor screenshot. I have now read more about the House Rules and saw other scriptmakers, so I am trying to write better descriptions like wizards do, by explaining not only how the script works but what the underlying financial concept is to a neophyte audience.
Psychological levels (Bank levels) by tartigradiaPsychological levels (Bank levels) plots the price levels by truncating after the nth leftmost digits, as it appears the humain brain tends to intuitively calculate in log/zipf.
Contrary to other similar scripts, this one uses a mathematical calculation that extracts the 1, 2 or 3 leftmost digits and calculate the previous and next level by incrementing/decrementing these digits. This means it works for any asset at any price range.
For example, if price is at 0.0421, the next major price level is 0.05 and medium one is 0.043. For another asset currently priced at 19354, the next and previous major price levels are 20000 and 10000 respectively, and the next/previous medium levels are 20000 and 19000, and the next/previous weak levels are 19400 and 19300.
By default, strong upper level is in green, strong lower level is in red, medium upper level is in blue, medium lower level is in yellow, and weak levels aren't displayed but can be. Strong levels are increments of the first leftmost digit (eg, 10000 to 20000), medium levels are increments of the second leftmost digit (eg, 19000 to 20000), and weak levels of the third leftmost digit (eg, 19100 to 19200). Instead of plotting all the psychological levels all at once as a grid, which makes the chart unintelligible, here the levels adapt dynamically around the current price, so that they show the upper/lower levels relatively to the current price.
A simple moving average is implemented, so that "half-levels" are also displayed when relevant (eg, medium level can also display 19500 instead of only 19000 or 20000). This can be disabled by setting smoothing to 1.
I made this script mainly to train with PineScript, but I guess it can be useful for new traders, as it's easy to forget that psychological levels can often be as strong if not stronger than technical levels.
Negative Volume IndexHello traders!
This indicator was originally developed by Paul L. Dysart in the 1930s and then described and popularized by Norman G. Fosback in his book "Stock Market Logic: A Sophisticated Approach to Profits on Wall Street" .
Like and follow for more cool indicators!
Happy Trading!
Positive Volume IndexHello traders!
This indicator was originally developed by Paul L. Dysart in the 1930s and then described and popularized by Norman G. Fosback in his book "Stock Market Logic: A Sophisticated Approach to Profits on Wall Street"
Like and follow for more cool indicators!
Happy Trading!
(US) Historical Trade WarsHistorical U.S. Trade Wars Indicator
Overview
This indicator visualizes major U.S. trade wars and disputes throughout modern economic history, from the McKinley Tariff of 1890 to recent U.S.-China tensions. This U.S.-focused timeline is perfect for macro traders, economic historians, and anyone looking to understand how America's trade conflicts correlate with market movements.
Features
Comprehensive U.S. Timeline: Covers 130+ years of U.S.-centered trade disputes with historically accurate dates.
Color-Coded Events:
🔴 Red: Marks the beginning of a U.S. trade war or major dispute.
🟡 Yellow: Highlights significant events within a trade conflict.
🟢 Green: Shows resolutions or ends of trade disputes.
Global Partners/Rivals: Tracks U.S. trade relations with China, Japan, EU, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and others.
Country Flags: Uses emoji flags for easy visual identification of nations in trade relations with the U.S.
Major Trade Wars Covered:
McKinley Tariff (1890-1894)
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930-1934)
U.S.-Europe Chicken War (1962-1974)
Multifiber Arrangement Quotas (1974-2005)
Japan-U.S. Trade Disputes (1981-1989)
NAFTA and Softwood Lumber Disputes
Clinton and Bush-Era Steel Tariffs
Obama-Era China Tire Tariffs
Rare Earth Minerals Dispute (2012-2014)
Solar Panel Dispute (2012-2015)
TPP and TTIP Negotiations
U.S.-China Trade War (2018-present)
Airbus-Boeing Dispute
Usage
Analyze how markets historically responded to trade war initiations and resolutions.
Identify patterns in market behavior during periods of trade tensions.
Use as an overlay with price action to examine correlations.
Perfect companion for macro analysis on daily, weekly, or monthly charts.
About
This indicator is designed as a historical reference tool for traders and economic analysts focusing on U.S. trade policy and its global impact. The dates and events have been thoroughly researched for accuracy. Each label includes emojis to indicate the U.S. and its trade partners/rivals, making it easy to track America's evolving trade relationships across time.
Note: This indicator works best on larger timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly) due to the historical span covered.
