EMA–VWAP Strategy (Confirmed crosses, 1 trade/cross)Wait for 10 and 20 ema to cross
Buy between 10 and 20
wait for 20 and 50 to cross
buy at vwap
10/20/50 ema and vwap is plotted
In den Scripts nach "用户自选股中各股票的均线排列状态（5日、10日、20日均线）" suchen
Egg vs Tennis Ball — Drop/Rebound StrengthEgg vs Tennis Ball — Drop/Rebound Meter
What it does
Classifies selloffs as either:
Eggs — dead‑cat, no bounce
Tennis Balls — fast, decisive rebound
Core features
Detects swing drops from a Pivot High (PH) to a Pivot Low (PL)
Requires drops to be meaningful (volatility‑aware, ATR‑scaled)
Draws a bounce threshold line and a deadline
Decides outcome based on speed and extent of rebound
Tracks scores and win rates across multiple lookback windows
Includes a color‑coded meter and current streak display
Visuals at a glance
Gray diagonal — drop from PH to PL
Teal dotted horizontal — bounce threshold, from PH to the deadline
Solid green — Tennis Ball (bounce line broken before the deadline)
Solid red — Egg (deadline expired before the bounce)
Optional PH / PL labels for clarity
How the decision is made
1) Find pivots — symmetric pivots using Pivot Left / Right; PL confirms after Right bars.
2) Qualify the drop — Drop Size = PH − PL; must be ≥ (Drop Threshold × ATR at PL).
3) Define the bounce line — PL + (Bounce Multiple × Drop Size). 1.00× = full retrace to PH; up to 2.00× for overshoot.
4) Set the deadline — Drop Bars = PL index − PH index; Deadline = Drop Bars × Recovery Factor; timer starts from PH or PL.
5) Resolve — Tennis Ball if price hits the bounce line before the deadline; Egg if the deadline passes first.
Scoring system (−100 to +100)
+100 = perfect Tennis Ball (fastest possible + full overshoot)
−100 = perfect Egg (no recovery)
In between: scored by rebound speed and extent, shaped by your weight settings
Meter Table
Columns (toggle on/off)
All (off by default)
Last N1 (default 5)
Last N2 (default 10)
Last N3 (default 20)
Rows
Tennis / Eggs — counts
% Tennis — win rate
Avg Score — normalized quality from −100 to +100
Streak — overall (not windowed), e.g., +3 = 3 Tennis Balls in a row, −4 = 4 Eggs in a row
Alerts
Tennis Ball – Fast Rebound — triggers when the bounce line is broken in time
Egg – Window Expired — triggers when the deadline passes without a bounce
Inputs
① Drop Detection
Pivot Left / Right
ATR Length
Drop Threshold × ATR
② Bounce Requirement
Bounce Multiple × Drop Size (0.10–2.00×)
③ Timing
Timer Start — PH or PL
Recovery Factor × Drop Bars
Break Trigger — Close or High
④ Display
Show Pivot/Outcome Labels
Line Width
Table Position (corner)
⑤ Meter Columns
Show All (off by default)
Show N1 / N2 / N3 (5, 10, 20 by default)
⑥ Scoring Weights
Tennis — Base, Speed, Extent
Egg — Base, Strength
How to use it
Pick strictness — start with Drop Threshold = 2.0 ATR, Bounce Multiple = 1.0×, Recovery Factor = 3.0×; adjust to timeframe and volatility.
Watch the dotted line — it ends at the deadline; turns solid green (Tennis) if broken in time, solid red (Egg) if it expires.
Read the meter — short windows (5–10) show current behavior; Avg Score captures quality; Streak shows momentum.
Blend with your system — combine with trend filters, volume, or regime detection.
Tips
Close vs High trigger: Close is stricter; High is more responsive.
PH vs PL timer start: PH measures round‑trip; PL measures recovery only.
Increase pivot strength for fewer, more reliable signals.
Higher timeframes generally produce cleaner patterns.
Defaults
Pivot L/R: 5 / 5
ATR Length: 14
Drop Threshold: 2.0× ATR
Bounce Multiple: 1.00×
Recovery Factor: 3.0×
Break Trigger: Close
Windows: Last 5, 10, 20 (All off)
Interpreting results
Tennis‑y: Avg Score +30 to +70, %Tennis > 55%
Mixed: Avg Score near 0
Egg‑y: Avg Score −30 to −80, %Tennis < 45%
Multi SMA AnalyzerMulti SMA Analyzer with Custom SMA Table & Advanced Session Logic
A feature-rich SMA analysis suite for traders, offering up to 7 configurable SMAs, in-depth trend detection, real-time table, and true session-aware calculations.
Ideal for those who want to combine intraday, swing, and higher-timeframe trend analysis with maximum chart flexibility.
Key Features
📊 Multi-SMA Overlay
- 7 SMAs (default: 5, 20, 50, 100, 200, 21, 34)—individually configurable (period, source, color, line style)
- Show/hide each SMA, custom line style (solid, stepline, circles), and color logic
- Dynamic color: full opacity above SMA, reduced when below
⏰ Session-Aware SMAs
- Each SMA can be calculated using only user-defined session hours/days/timezone
- “Ignore extended hours” option for accurate intraday trend
📋 Smart Data Table
- Live SMA values, % distance from price, and directional arrows (↑/↓/→)
- Bull/Bear/Sideways trend classification
- Custom table position, size, colors, transparency
- Table can run on chart or custom (higher) timeframe for multi-TF analysis
🎯 Golden/Death Cross Detection
- Flexible crossover engine: select any two from (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200) for fast/slow SMA cross signals
- Plots icons (★ Golden, 💀 Death), optional crossover labels with custom size/colors
🏷️ SMA Labels
- Optional on-chart SMA period labels
- Custom placement (above/below/on line), size, color, offset
🚨 Signal & Trend Engine
- Bull/Bear/Sideways logic: price vs. multiple SMAs (not just one pair)
- Volume spike detection (2x 20-period SMA)
- Bullish engulfing candlestick detection
- All signals can use chart or custom table timeframe
🎨 Visual Customization
- Dynamic background color (Bull: green, Bear: red, Neutral: gray)
- Every visual aspect is customizable: label/table colors, transparency, size, position
🔔 Built-in Alerts
- Crossovers (SMA20/50, Golden/Death)
- Bull trend, volume spikes, engulfing pattern—all alert-ready
How It Works
- Session Filtering:
- SMAs can be set to count only bars from your chosen market session, for true intraday/trading-hour signals
Dynamic Table & Signals:
- Table and all signal logic run on your selected chart or custom timeframe
Flexible Crossover:
- Choose any pair (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200) for cross detection—SMA 10 is available for crossover even if not shown as an SMA line
Everything is modular:
- Toggle features, set visuals, and alerts to your workflow
🚨 How to Use Alerts
- All key signals (crossovers, trend shifts, volume spikes, engulfing patterns) are available as alert conditions.
To enable:
- Click the “Alerts” (clock) icon at the top of TradingView.
- Select your desired signal (e.g., “Golden Cross”) from the condition dropdown.
- Set your alert preferences and create the alert.
- Now, you’ll get notified automatically whenever a signal occurs!
Perfect For
- Multi-timeframe and swing traders seeking higher timeframe SMA confirmation
- Intraday traders who want to ignore pre/post-market data
- Anyone wanting a modern, powerful, fully customizable multi-SMA overlay
// P.S: Experiment with Golden Cross where Fast SMA is 5 and Slow SMA is 20.
// Set custom timeframe for 4 hr while monitoring your chart on 15 min time frame.
// Enable Background Color and Use Table Timeframe for Background.
// Uncheck Pine labels in Style tab.
Clean, open-source, and loaded with pro features—enjoy!
Like, share, and let me know if you'd like any new features added.
Bear Market Probability Model# Bear Market Probability Model: A Multi-Factor Risk Assessment Framework
The Bear Market Probability Model represents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing systemic market risk through the integration of 13 distinct risk factors across four analytical categories: macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis factors, market sentiment measures, and market breadth metrics. This indicator synthesizes established financial research methodologies to provide real-time probabilistic assessments of impending bear market conditions, offering institutional-grade risk management capabilities to retail and professional traders alike.
## Theoretical Foundation
### Historical Context of Bear Market Prediction
Bear market prediction has been a central focus of financial research since the seminal work of Dow (1901) and the subsequent development of technical analysis theory. The challenge of predicting market downturns gained renewed academic attention following the market crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, leading to the development of sophisticated multi-factor models.
Fama and French (1989) demonstrated that certain financial variables possess predictive power for stock returns, particularly during market stress periods. Their three-factor model laid the groundwork for multi-dimensional risk assessment, which this indicator extends through the incorporation of real-time market microstructure data.
### Methodological Framework
The model employs a weighted composite scoring methodology based on the theoretical framework established by Campbell and Shiller (1998) for market valuation assessment, extended through the incorporation of high-frequency sentiment and technical indicators as proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) in their seminal work on investor sentiment.
The mathematical foundation follows the general form:
Bear Market Probability = Σ(Wi × Ci) / ΣWi × 100
Where:
- Wi = Category weight (i = 1,2,3,4)
- Ci = Normalized category score
- Categories: Macroeconomic, Technical, Sentiment, Breadth
## Component Analysis
### 1. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
#### Yield Curve Analysis
The inclusion of yield curve inversion as a primary predictor follows extensive research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who demonstrated that the term spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities has historically preceded all major recessions since 1969. The model incorporates both the 2Y-10Y and 3M-10Y spreads to capture different aspects of monetary policy expectations.
Implementation:
- 2Y-10Y Spread: Captures market expectations of monetary policy trajectory
- 3M-10Y Spread: Traditional recession predictor with 12-18 month lead time
Scientific Basis: Harvey (1988) and subsequent research by Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2006) established the theoretical foundation linking yield curve inversions to economic contractions through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
#### Credit Risk Premium Assessment
High-yield credit spreads serve as a real-time gauge of systemic risk, following the methodology established by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) in their excess bond premium research. The model incorporates the ICE BofA High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread as a proxy for credit market stress.
Threshold Calibration:
- Normal conditions: < 350 basis points
- Elevated risk: 350-500 basis points
- Severe stress: > 500 basis points
#### Currency and Commodity Stress Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum serves as a risk-off indicator, while the Gold-to-Oil ratio captures commodity market stress dynamics. This approach follows the methodology of Akram (2009) and Beckmann, Berger, and Czudaj (2015) in analyzing commodity-currency relationships during market stress.
### 2. Technical Analysis Factors
#### Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Analysis
The technical component incorporates the well-established moving average convergence methodology, drawing from the work of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), who provided empirical evidence for the profitability of technical trading rules.
Implementation:
- Price relative to 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages
- Moving average convergence/divergence analysis
- Multi-timeframe MACD assessment (daily and weekly)
#### Momentum and Volatility Analysis
The model integrates Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis following Wilder's (1978) original methodology, combined with maximum drawdown analysis based on the work of Magdon-Ismail and Atiya (2004) on optimal drawdown measurement.
### 3. Market Sentiment Factors
#### Volatility Index Analysis
The VIX component follows the established research of Whaley (2009) and subsequent work by Bekaert and Hoerova (2014) on VIX as a predictor of market stress. The model incorporates both absolute VIX levels and relative VIX spikes compared to the 20-day moving average.
Calibration:
- Low volatility: VIX < 20
- Elevated concern: VIX 20-25
- High fear: VIX > 25
- Panic conditions: VIX > 30
#### Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Options flow analysis through put-call ratios provides insight into sophisticated investor positioning, following the methodology established by Pan and Poteshman (2006) in their analysis of informed trading in options markets.
### 4. Market Breadth Factors
#### Advance-Decline Analysis
Market breadth assessment follows the classic work of Fosback (1976) and subsequent research by Brown and Cliff (2004) on market breadth as a predictor of future returns.
Components:
- Daily advance-decline ratio
- Advance-decline line momentum
- McClellan Oscillator (Ema19 - Ema39 of A-D difference)
#### New Highs-New Lows Analysis
The new highs-new lows ratio serves as a market leadership indicator, based on the research of Zweig (1986) and validated in academic literature by Zarowin (1990).
## Dynamic Threshold Methodology
The model incorporates adaptive thresholds based on rolling volatility and trend analysis, following the methodology established by Pagan and Sossounov (2003) for business cycle dating. This approach allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing market conditions.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
- Warning Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.0)
- Danger Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.5)
- Bounds: ±10-20 points from base threshold
## Professional Implementation
### Institutional Usage Patterns
Professional risk managers typically employ multi-factor bear market models in several contexts:
#### 1. Portfolio Risk Management
- Tactical Asset Allocation: Reducing equity exposure when probability exceeds 60-70%
- Hedging Strategies: Implementing protective puts or VIX calls when warning thresholds are breached
- Sector Rotation: Shifting from growth to defensive sectors during elevated risk periods
#### 2. Risk Budgeting
- Value-at-Risk Adjustment: Incorporating bear market probability into VaR calculations
- Stress Testing: Using probability levels to calibrate stress test scenarios
- Capital Requirements: Adjusting regulatory capital based on systemic risk assessment
#### 3. Client Communication
- Risk Reporting: Quantifying market risk for client presentations
- Investment Committee Decisions: Providing objective risk metrics for strategic decisions
- Performance Attribution: Explaining defensive positioning during market stress
### Implementation Framework
Professional traders typically implement such models through:
#### Signal Hierarchy:
1. Probability < 30%: Normal risk positioning
2. Probability 30-50%: Increased hedging, reduced leverage
3. Probability 50-70%: Defensive positioning, cash building
4. Probability > 70%: Maximum defensive posture, short exposure consideration
#### Risk Management Integration:
- Position Sizing: Inverse relationship between probability and position size
- Stop-Loss Adjustment: Tighter stops during elevated risk periods
- Correlation Monitoring: Increased attention to cross-asset correlations
## Strengths and Advantages
### 1. Comprehensive Coverage
The model's primary strength lies in its multi-dimensional approach, avoiding the single-factor bias that has historically plagued market timing models. By incorporating macroeconomic, technical, sentiment, and breadth factors, the model provides robust risk assessment across different market regimes.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptability
The adaptive threshold mechanism allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing volatility conditions, reducing false signals during low-volatility periods and maintaining sensitivity during high-volatility regimes.
### 3. Real-Time Processing
Unlike traditional academic models that rely on monthly or quarterly data, this indicator processes daily market data, providing timely risk assessment for active portfolio management.
### 4. Transparency and Interpretability
The component-based structure allows users to understand which factors are driving risk assessment, enabling informed decision-making about model signals.
### 5. Historical Validation
Each component has been validated in academic literature, providing theoretical foundation for the model's predictive power.
## Limitations and Weaknesses
### 1. Data Dependencies
The model's effectiveness depends heavily on the availability and quality of real-time economic data. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) updates may have lags that could impact model responsiveness during rapidly evolving market conditions.
### 2. Regime Change Sensitivity
Like most quantitative models, the indicator may struggle during unprecedented market conditions or structural regime changes where historical relationships break down (Taleb, 2007).
### 3. False Signal Risk
Multi-factor models inherently face the challenge of balancing sensitivity with specificity. The model may generate false positive signals during normal market volatility periods.
### 4. Currency and Geographic Bias
The model focuses primarily on US market indicators, potentially limiting its effectiveness for global portfolio management or non-USD denominated assets.
### 5. Correlation Breakdown
During extreme market stress, correlations between risk factors may increase dramatically, reducing the model's diversification benefits (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002).
## References
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M., & Wei, M. (2006). What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 359-403.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24.
Bekaert, G., & Hoerova, M. (2014). The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 183(2), 181-192.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(2), 11-26.
Dow, C. H. (1901). Scientific stock speculation. The Magazine of Wall Street.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
Fosback, N. G. (1976). Stock market logic: A sophisticated approach to profits on Wall Street. The Institute for Econometric Research.
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Harvey, C. R. (1988). The real term structure and consumption growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 305-333.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk, 17(10), 99-102.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
Pagan, A. R., & Sossounov, K. A. (2003). A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23-46.
Pan, J., & Poteshman, A. M. (2006). The information in option volume for future stock prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(3), 871-908.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Zarowin, P. (1990). Size, seasonality, and stock market overreaction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(1), 113-125.
Zweig, M. E. (1986). Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books.
Market Sentiment Index US Top 40 [Pt]▮Overview
Market Sentiment Index US Top 40 [Pt} shows how the largest US stocks behave together. You pick one simple measure—High Low breakouts, Above Below moving average, or RSI overbought/oversold—and see how many of your chosen top 10/20/30/40 NYSE or NASDAQ names are bullish, neutral, or bearish.
This tool gives you a quick view of broad-market strength or weakness so you can time trades, confirm trends, and spot hidden shifts in market sentiment.
▮Key Features
► Three Simple Modes
High Low Index: counts stocks making new highs or lows over your lookback period
Above Below MA: flags stocks trading above or below their moving average
RSI Sentiment: marks overbought or oversold stocks and plots a small histogram
► Universe Selection
Top 10, 20, 30, or 40 symbols from NYSE or NASDAQ
Option to weight by market cap or treat all symbols equally
► Timeframe Choice
Use your chart’s timeframe or any intraday, daily, weekly, or monthly resolution
► Histogram Smoothing
Two optional moving averages on the sentiment bars
Markers show when the faster average crosses above or below the slower one
► Ticker Table
Optional on-chart table showing each ticker’s state in color
Grid or single-row layout with adjustable text size and color settings
▮Inputs
► Mode and Lookback
Pick High Low, Above Below MA, or RSI Sentiment
Set lookback length (for example 10 bars)
If using Above Below MA, choose the moving average type (EMA, SMA, etc.)
► Universe Setup
Market: NYSE or NASDAQ
Number of symbols: 10, 20, 30, or 40
Weights: on or off
Timeframe: blank to match chart or pick any other
► Moving Averages on Histogram
Enable fast and slow averages
Set their lengths and types
Choose colors for averages and markers
► Table Options
Show or hide the symbol table
Select text size: tiny, small, or normal
Choose layout: grid or one-row
Pick colors for bullish, neutral, and bearish cells
Show or hide exchange prefixes
▮How to Read It
► Sentiment Bars
Green means bullish
Red means bearish
Near zero means neutral
► Zero Line
Separates bullish from bearish readings
► High Low Line (High Low mode only)
Smooth ratio of highs versus lows over your lookback
► MA Crosses
Fast MA above slow MA hints rising breadth
Fast MA below slow MA hints falling breadth
► Ticker Table
Each cell colored green, gray, or red for bull, neutral, or bear
▮Use Cases
► Confirm Market Trends
Early warning when price makes highs but breadth is weak
Catch rallies when breadth turns strong while price is flat
► Spot Sector Rotation
Switch between NYSE and NASDAQ to see which group leads
Watch tech versus industrial breadth to track money flow
► Filter Trade Signals
Enter longs only when breadth is bullish
Consider shorts when breadth turns negative
► Combine with Other Indicators
Use RSI Sentiment with trend tools to spot overextended moves
Add volume indicators in High Low mode for breakout confirmation
► Timeframe Analysis
Daily for big-picture bias
Intraday (15-min) for precise entries and exits
IBD Style Candles [tradeviZion]IBD Style Candles - Visualize Price Bars Like the Pros
Transform your chart with institutional-grade IBD-style bars and customizable moving averages for both daily and weekly timeframes. This indicator helps you visualize price action the way professionals at Investors Business Daily do.
What This Indicator Offers:
IBD-style bar visualization (clean, professional appearance)
Customizable coloring based on price movement or previous close
Automatic timeframe detection for appropriate moving averages
Four customizable moving averages for daily timeframes (10, 21, 50, 200)
Four customizable moving averages for weekly timeframes (10, 20, 30, 40)
Options to use SMAs or EMAs with adjustable colors and line widths
"The IBD-style bars provide a cleaner view of price action, allowing you to focus on market structure without the visual noise of traditional candles."
How to Apply the IBD-Style Bars:
On your TradingView chart, select "Bars" as the chart type from the main chart type selection menu (next to the time interval options).
Right-click on the chart and select "Settings".
Go to the "Symbol" tab.
Uncheck the "Thin Bars" option to display thicker bars.
Set the "Up Color" and "Down Color" opacity to 0 for a clean IBD-style appearance.
Enable "IBD-style Candles" from the script's settings.
To revert to the original chart style, repeat the above steps and restore the default settings.
Moving Average Configuration:
The indicator automatically detects your timeframe and displays the appropriate moving averages:
Daily Timeframe Moving Averages:
10-day moving average (SMA/EMA)
21-day moving average (SMA/EMA)
50-day moving average (SMA/EMA)
200-day moving average (SMA/EMA)
Weekly Timeframe Moving Averages:
10-week moving average (SMA/EMA)
20-week moving average (SMA/EMA)
30-week moving average (SMA/EMA)
40-week moving average (SMA/EMA)
Usage Tips:
Enable "Color bars based on previous close" to identify momentum shifts based on prior candle closes
Customize colors to match your chart theme or preference
Enable only the moving averages relevant to your trading strategy
For cleaner charts, reduce the number of visible moving averages
For stock trading, the 10/21/50/200 daily and 10/40 weekly MAs are most commonly used by institutions
// Example configuration for different timeframes
if timeframe.isweekly
// Weekly configuration
showSMA1_Weekly = true // 10-week MA
showSMA4_Weekly = true // 40-week MA
else
// Daily configuration
showMA2_Daily = true // 21-day MA
showMA3_Daily = true // 50-day MA
showMA4_Daily = true // 200-day MA
While the IBD style provides clarity, remember that no visualization method guarantees trading success. Always combine with proper analysis and risk management.
If you found this indicator helpful, please consider leaving a comment or suggestion for future improvements. Happy trading!
Combined EMA/Smiley & DEM System## 🔷 General Overview
This script creates an advanced technical analysis system for TradingView, combining multiple Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), dynamic Fibonacci levels, and ATR (Average True Range) analysis. It presents the results clearly through interactive, real-time tables directly on the chart.
---
## 🔹 Indicator Structure
The script consists of two main parts:
### **1. EMA & SMA Combined System with Fibonacci**
- **Purpose:**
Provides visual insights by comparing multiple EMA/SMA periods and identifying significant dynamic price levels using Fibonacci ratios around a calculated "Golden" line.
- **Components:**
- **Moving Averages (MAs)**:
- 20 EMAs (periods from 20 to 400)
- 20 SMAs (also from 20 to 400)
- **Golden Line:**
Calculated as the average of all EMAs and SMAs.
- **Dynamic Fibonacci Levels:**
Key ratios around the Golden line (0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 1.0, 1.272, 1.414, 1.618, 2.0) dynamically adjust based on market conditions.
- **Fibonacci Labels:**
Labels are shown next to Fibonacci lines, indicating their numeric value clearly on the chart.
- **Table (Top Right Corner):**
- Displays:
- **Input:** EMA/SMA periods sorted by their current average price levels.
- **AVG:** The average of corresponding EMA & SMA pairs.
- **EMA & SMA Values:** Individual EMA/SMA values clearly marked.
- **Dynamic Highlighting:** Highlights the row whose average (EMA+SMA)/2 is closest to the current price, helping identify immediate price action significance.
- **Sorting Logic:**
Each EMA/SMA pair is dynamically sorted based on their average values. Color coding (red/green) is used:
- **Green:** EMA/SMA pairs with shorter periods when their average is lower.
- **Red:** EMA/SMA pairs with longer periods when their average is lower.
- **Star (⭐):** Represents the "Golden" average clearly.
---
### **2. DEM System (Dynamic EMA/ATR Metrics)**
- **Purpose:**
Provides detailed ATR statistics to assess market volatility clearly and quickly.
- **Components:**
- **Moving Averages:**
- SMA lines: 25, 50, 100, 200.
- **Bollinger Bands:**
- Based on 20-period SMA of highs and standard deviation of lows.
- **ATR Analysis:**
- ATR calculations for multiple periods (1-day, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50).
- **ATR Premium:** Average ATR of all calculated periods, providing an overarching volatility indicator.
- **ATR Table (Bottom Right Corner):**
- Displays clearly structured ATR values and percentages relative to the current close price:
- Columns: **ATR Period**, **Value**, and **% of Close**.
- Rows: Each specific ATR (1D, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50), plus ATR premium.
- The ATR premium is highlighted in yellow to signify its importance clearly.
---
## 🔹 Key Features and Logic Explained
- **Dynamic EMA/SMA Sorting:**
The script computes the average of each EMA/SMA pair and sorts them dynamically on each bar, highlighting their relative importance visually. This allows traders to easily interpret the strength of current support/resistance levels based on moving averages.
- **Closest EMA/SMA Pair to Current Price:**
Calculates the absolute difference between the current price and all EMA/SMA averages, highlighting the closest one for quick reference.
- **Fibonacci Ratios:**
- Dynamically calculated Fibonacci levels based on the "Golden" EMA/SMA average give clear visual guidance for potential targets, supports, and resistances.
- Labels are continuously updated and placed next to levels for clarity.
- **ATR Volatility Analysis:**
- Provides immediate insight into market volatility with absolute and relative (percentage-based) ATR values.
- ATR premium summarizes volatility across multiple timeframes clearly.
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## 🔹 Practical Use Case:
- Traders can quickly identify support/resistance and critical price zones through EMA/SMA and Fibonacci combinations.
- Useful in assessing immediate volatility, guiding stop-loss and take-profit levels through detailed ATR metrics.
- The dynamic highlighting in tables provides intuitive, real-time decision support for active traders.
---
## 🔹 How to Use this Script:
1. **Adjust EMA & SMA Lengths** from indicator settings if different periods are preferred.
2. **Monitor dynamic Fibonacci levels** around the "Golden" average to identify possible reversal or continuation points.
3. **Check EMA/SMA table:** Rows highlighted indicate immediate significance concerning current market price.
4. **ATR table:** Use volatility metrics for better risk management.
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## 🔷 Conclusion
This advanced Pine Script indicator efficiently combines multiple EMAs, SMAs, dynamic Fibonacci retracement levels, and volatility analysis using ATR into a comprehensive real-time analytical tool, enhancing traders' decision-making capabilities by providing clear and actionable insights directly on the TradingView chart.
SMC+The "SMC+" indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to overlay key Smart Money Concepts (SMC) levels, support/resistance zones, order blocks (OB), fair value gaps (FVG), and trap detection on your TradingView chart. It aims to assist traders in identifying potential areas of interest based on price action, swing structures, and volume dynamics across multiple timeframes. This indicator is fully customizable, allowing users to adjust lookback periods, colors, opacity, and sensitivity to suit their trading style.
Key Components and Functionality
1. Key Levels (Support and Resistance)
This section plots horizontal lines representing support and resistance levels based on highs and lows over three distinct lookback periods, plus daily nearest levels.
Short-Term Lookback Period (Default: 20 bars)
Plots the highest high (short_high) and lowest low (short_low) over the specified period.
Visualized as dotted lines with customizable colors (Short-Term Resistance Color, Short-Term Support Color) and opacity (Short-Term Resistance Opacity, Short-Term Support Opacity).
Adjustment Tip: Increase the lookback (e.g., to 30-50) for less frequent but stronger levels on higher timeframes, or decrease (e.g., to 10-15) for scalping on lower timeframes.
Long-Term Lookback Period (Default: 50 bars)
Plots broader support (long_low) and resistance (long_high) levels using a solid line style.
Customizable via Long-Term Resistance Color, Long-Term Support Color, and their respective opacity settings.
Adjustment Tip: Extend to 100-200 bars for swing trading or major trend analysis on daily/weekly charts.
Extra-Long Lookback Period (Default: 100 bars)
Identifies significant historical highs (extra_long_high) and lows (extra_long_low) with dashed lines.
Configurable with Extra-Long Resistance Color, Extra-Long Support Color, and opacity settings.
Adjustment Tip: Use 200-500 bars for monthly charts to capture macro-level key zones.
Daily Nearest Resistance and Support Levels
Dynamically calculates the nearest resistance (daily_res_level) and support (daily_sup_level) based on the current day’s price action relative to historical highs and lows.
Displayed with Daily Resistance Color and Daily Support Color (with opacity options).
Adjustment Tip: Works best on intraday charts (e.g., 15m, 1h) to track daily pivots; combine with volume profile for confirmation.
How It Works: These levels update dynamically as new highs/lows form, providing a visual guide to potential reversal or breakout zones.
2. SMC Inputs (Smart Money Concepts)
This section identifies swing structures, order blocks, fair value gaps, and entry signals based on SMC principles.
SMC Swing Lookback Period (Default: 12 bars)
Defines the period for detecting swing highs (smc_swing_high) and lows (smc_swing_low).
Adjustment Tip: Increase to 20-30 for smoother swings on higher timeframes; reduce to 5-10 for faster signals on lower timeframes.
Minimum Swing Size (%) (Default: 0.5%)
Filters out minor price movements to focus on significant swings.
Adjustment Tip: Raise to 1-2% for volatile markets (e.g., crypto) to avoid noise; lower to 0.2-0.3% for forex pairs with tight ranges.
Order Block Sensitivity (Default: 1.0)
Scales the size of detected order blocks (OBs) for bullish reversal (smc_ob_bull), bearish reversal (smc_ob_bear), and continuation (smc_cont_ob).
Visuals include customizable colors, opacity, border thickness, and blinking effects (e.g., SMC Bullish Reversal OB Color, SMC Bearish Reversal OB Blink Thickness).
Adjustment Tip: Increase to 1.5-2.0 for wider OBs in choppy markets; keep at 1.0 for precision in trending conditions.
Minimum FVG Size (%) (Default: 0.3%)
Sets the minimum gap size for Fair Value Gaps (fvg_high, fvg_low), displayed as boxes with Fair Value Gap Color and FVG Opacity.
Adjustment Tip: Increase to 0.5-1% for larger, more reliable gaps; decrease to 0.1-0.2% for scalping smaller inefficiencies.
How It Works:
Bullish Reversal OB: Detects a bearish candle followed by a bullish break, marking a potential demand zone.
Bearish Reversal OB: Identifies a bullish candle followed by a bearish break, marking a supply zone.
Continuation OB: Spots strong bullish momentum after a prior high, indicating a continuation zone.
FVG: Highlights bullish gaps where price may retrace to fill.
Entry Signals: Plots triangles (SMC Long Entry) when price retests an OB with a liquidity sweep or break of structure (BOS).
3. Trap Inputs
This section detects potential bull and bear traps based on price action, volume, and key level rejections.
Min Down Move for Bear Trap (%) (Default: 1.0%)
Sets the minimum drop required after a bearish OB to qualify as a trap.
Visualized with Bear Trap Color, Bear Trap Opacity, and blinking borders.
Adjustment Tip: Increase to 2-3% for stronger traps in trending markets; lower to 0.5% for ranging conditions.
Min Up Move for Bull Trap (%) (Default: 1.0%)
Sets the minimum rise required after a bullish OB to flag a trap.
Customizable with Bull Trap Color, Bull Trap Border Thickness, etc.
Adjustment Tip: Adjust similarly to bear traps based on market volatility.
Volume Lookback for Traps (Default: 5 bars)
Compares current volume to a moving average (avg_volume) to filter low-volume traps.
Adjustment Tip: Increase to 10-20 for confirmation on higher timeframes; reduce to 3 for intraday sensitivity.
How It Works:
Bear Trap: Triggers when price drops significantly after a bearish OB but reverses up with low volume or support rejection.
Bull Trap: Activates when price rises after a bullish OB but fails with low volume or resistance rejection.
Boxes highlight trap zones, resetting when price breaks out.
4. Visual Customization
Line Width (Default: 2)
Adjusts thickness of support/resistance lines.
Tip: Increase to 3-4 for visibility on cluttered charts.
Blink On (Default: Close)
Sets whether OB/FVG borders blink based on Open or Close price interaction.
Tip: Use "Open" for intraday precision; "Close" for confirmed reactions.
Colors and Opacity: Each element (OBs, FVGs, traps, key levels) has customizable colors, opacity (0-100), border thickness (1-5 or 1-7), and blink effects for dynamic visualization.
How to Use SMC+
Setup: Apply the indicator to any chart and adjust inputs based on your timeframe and market.
Key Levels: Watch for price reactions at short, long, extra-long, or daily levels for potential reversals or breakouts.
SMC Signals: Look for entry signals (triangles) near OBs or FVGs, confirmed by liquidity sweeps or BOS.
Traps: Avoid false breakouts by monitoring trap boxes, especially near key levels with low volume.
Notes:
This indicator is a visual aid and does not guarantee trading success. Combine it with other analysis tools and risk management strategies.
Performance may vary across markets and timeframes; test settings thoroughly before use.
For optimal results, experiment with lookback periods and sensitivity settings to match your trading style.
The default settings are optimal for 1 minute and 10 second time frames for small cap low float stocks.
Continuation OB are Blue.
Bullish Reversal OB color is Green
Bearish Reversal OB color is Red
FVG color is purple
Bear Trap OB is red with a green border and often appears with a Bearish Reversal OB signaling caution to a short position.
Bull trap OB is green with a Red border signaling caution to a long position.
All active OB area are highlighted and solid in color while other non active OB area are dimmed.
My personal favorite setups are when we have an active bullish reversal with an active FVG along with an active Continuation OB.
Another personal favorite is the Bearish reversal OB signaling an end to a recent uptrend.
The Trap OB detection are also a unique and Original helpful source of information.
The OB have a white boarder by default that are colored black giving a simulated blinking effect when price is acting in that zone.
The Trap OB border are colored with respect to direction of intended trap, all of which can be customized to personal style.
All vaild OB zones are shown compact in size ,a unique and original view until its no longer valid.
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop StrategyXPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy
Long term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy.
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades. 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The scripts shows a lot of graphical information:
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)(in the example, there are 2 trades that end in gain and 2 in loss (red line at end))
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example parameters for different stocks (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
BEKB(Bekaert): EMA-Buy=12, SMA-Buy=44, Strength-Buy=65, EMA-Sell=12, SMA-Sell=55, Strength-Sell=120, Stop#ATR=20
NetProfit: 996%, #Trades: 6, %Profitable: 83%, Buy&HoldProfit: 78%
BAR(Barco): EMA-Buy=16, SMA-Buy=80, Strength-Buy=44, EMA-Sell=12, SMA-Sell=45, Strength-Sell=82, Stop#ATR=9
NetProfit: 385%, #Trades: 7, %Profitable: 71%, Buy&HoldProfit: 55%
AAPL(Apple): EMA-Buy=12, SMA-Buy=45, Strength-Buy=40, EMA-Sell=19, SMA-Sell=45, Strength-Sell=106, Stop#ATR=8
NetProfit: 6900%, #Trades: 7, %Profitable: 71%, Buy&HoldProfit: 2938%
TNET(Telenet): EMA-Buy=12, SMA-Buy=45, Strength-Buy=27, EMA-Sell=19, SMA-Sell=45, Strength-Sell=70, Stop#ATR=14
NetProfit: 129%, #Trade
Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • SignificanceThe Statistics • Chi Square • P-value • Significance publication aims to provide a tool for combining different conditions and checking whether the outcome is significant using the Chi-Square Test and P-value.
🔶 USAGE
The basic principle is to compare two or more groups and check the results of a query test, such as asking men and women whether they want to see a romantic or non-romantic movie.
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| | ROMANTIC | NON-ROMANTIC | ⬅︎ MOVIE |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| MEN | 2 | 8 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
| WOMEN | 7 | 3 | 10 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
|⬆︎ SEX | 10 | 10 | 20 |
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
We calculate the Chi-Square Formula, which is:
Χ² = Σ ( (Observed Value − Expected Value)² / Expected Value )
In this publication, this is:
chiSquare = 0.
for i = 0 to rows -1
for j = 0 to colums -1
observedValue = aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(j)
expectedValue = math.max(1e-12, aBin.get(i).aFloat.get(colums) * aBin.get(rows).aFloat.get(j) / sumT) //Division by 0 protection
chiSquare += math.pow(observedValue - expectedValue, 2) / expectedValue
Together with the 'Degree of Freedom', which is (rows − 1) × (columns − 1) , the P-value can be calculated.
In this case it is P-value: 0.02462
A P-value lower than 0.05 is considered to be significant. Statistically, women tend to choose a romantic movie more, while men prefer a non-romantic one.
Users have the option to choose a P-value, calculated from a standard table or through a math.ucla.edu - Javascript-based function (see references below).
Note that the population (10 men + 10 women = 20) is small, something to consider.
Either way, this principle is applied in the script, where conditions can be chosen like rsi, close, high, ...
🔹 CONDITION
Conditions are added to the left column ('CONDITION')
For example, previous rsi values (rsi ) between 0-100, divided in separate groups
🔹 CLOSE
Then, the movement of the last close is evaluated
UP when close is higher then previous close (close )
DOWN when close is lower then previous close
EQUAL when close is equal then previous close
It is also possible to use only 2 columns by adding EQUAL to UP or DOWN
UP
DOWN/EQUAL
or
UP/EQUAL
DOWN
In other words, when previous rsi value was between 80 and 90, this resulted in:
19 times a current close higher than previous close
14 times a current close lower than previous close
0 times a current close equal than previous close
However, the P-value tells us it is not statistical significant.
NOTE: Always keep in mind that past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
A vertical line is drawn at the beginning of the chosen population (max 4990)
Here, the results seem significant.
🔹 GROUPS
It is important to ensure that the groups are formed correctly. All possibilities should be present, and conditions should only be part of 1 group.
In the example above, the two top situations are acceptable; close against close can only be higher, lower or equal.
The two examples at the bottom, however, are very poorly constructed.
Several conditions can be placed in more than 1 group, and some conditions are not integrated into a group. Even if the results are significant, they are useless because of the group formation.
A population count is added as an aid to spot errors in group formation.
In this example, there is a discrepancy between the population and total count due to the absence of a condition.
The results when rsi was between 5-25 are not included, resulting in unreliable results.
🔹 PRACTICAL EXAMPLES
In this example, we have specific groups where the condition only applies to that group.
For example, the condition rsi > 55 and rsi <= 65 isn't true in another group.
Also, every possible rsi value (0 - 100) is present in 1 of the groups.
rsi > 15 and rsi <= 25 28 times UP, 19 times DOWN and 2 times EQUAL. P-value: 0.01171
When looking in detail and examining the area 15-25 RSI, we see this:
The population is now not representative (only checking for RSI between 15-25; all other RSI values are not included), so we can ignore the P-value in this case. It is merely to check in detail. In this case, the RSI values 23 and 24 seem promising.
NOTE: We should check what the close price did without any condition.
If, for example, the close price had risen 100 times out of 100, this would make things very relative.
In this case (at least two conditions need to be present), we set 1 condition at 'always true' and another at 'always false' so we'll get only the close values without any condition:
Changing the population or the conditions will change the P-value.
In the following example, the outcome is evaluated when:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower/equal than the close value from 2 bars back
Or:
close value from 1 bar back is higher than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is equal than the close value from 2 bars back
close value from 1 bar back is lower than the close value from 2 bars back
In both examples, all possibilities of close against close are included in the calculations. close can only by higher, equal or lower than close
Both examples have the results without a condition included (5 = 5 and 5 < 5) so one can compare the direction of current close.
🔶 NOTES
• Always keep in mind that:
Past behaviour gives no certainty about future behaviour.
Everything depends on time, cycles, events, fundamentals, technicals, ...
• This test only works for categorical data (data in categories), such as Gender {Men, Women} or color {Red, Yellow, Green, Blue} etc., but not numerical data such as height or weight. One might argue that such tests shouldn't use rsi, close, ... values.
• Consider what you're measuring
For example rsi of the current bar will always lead to a close higher than the previous close, since this is inherent to the rsi calculations.
• Be careful; often, there are na -values at the beginning of the series, which are not included in the calculations!
• Always keep in mind considering what the close price did without any condition
• The numbers must be large enough. Each entry must be five or more. In other words, it is vital to make the 'population' large enough.
• The code can be developed further, for example, by splitting UP, DOWN in close UP 1-2%, close UP 2-3%, close UP 3-4%, ...
• rsi can be supplemented with stochRSI, MFI, sma, ema, ...
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Population
• Choose the population size; in other words, how many bars you want to go back to. If fewer bars are available than set, this will be automatically adjusted.
🔹 Inputs
At least two conditions need to be chosen.
• Users can add up to 11 conditions, where each condition can contain two different conditions.
🔹 RSI
• Length
🔹 Levels
• Set the used levels as desired.
🔹 Levels
• P-value: P-value retrieved using a standard table method or a function.
• Used function, derived from Chi-Square Distribution Function; JavaScript
LogGamma(Z) =>
S = 1
+ 76.18009173 / Z
- 86.50532033 / (Z+1)
+ 24.01409822 / (Z+2)
- 1.231739516 / (Z+3)
+ 0.00120858003 / (Z+4)
- 0.00000536382 / (Z+5)
(Z-.5) * math.log(Z+4.5) - (Z+4.5) + math.log(S * 2.50662827465)
Gcf(float X, A) => // Good for X > A +1
A0=0., B0=1., A1=1., B1=X, AOLD=0., N=0
while (math.abs((A1-AOLD)/A1) > .00001)
AOLD := A1
N += 1
A0 := A1+(N-A)*A0
B0 := B1+(N-A)*B0
A1 := X*A0+N*A1
B1 := X*B0+N*B1
A0 := A0/B1
B0 := B0/B1
A1 := A1/B1
B1 := 1
Prob = math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A)) * A1
1 - Prob
Gser(X, A) => // Good for X < A +1
T9 = 1. / A
G = T9
I = 1
while (T9 > G* 0.00001)
T9 := T9 * X / (A + I)
G := G + T9
I += 1
G *= math.exp(A * math.log(X) - X - LogGamma(A))
Gammacdf(x, a) =>
GI = 0.
if (x<=0)
GI := 0
else if (x
Chisqcdf = Gammacdf(Z/2, DF/2)
Chisqcdf := math.round(Chisqcdf * 100000) / 100000
pValue = 1 - Chisqcdf
🔶 REFERENCES
mathsisfun.com, Chi-Square Test
Chi-Square Distribution Function
The Ultimate Buy and Sell IndicatorThis indicator should be used in conjunction with a solid risk management strategy that does not over-leverage positions and uses stop-losses. You can not rely 100% on the signals provided by this indicator (or any other for that matter).
With that said, this indicator can provide some excellent signals.
It has been designed with a large number of customization options intended for advanced traders, but you do not HAVE to be an advanced user to simply use the indicator. I have tried to make it easy to understand, and this section will provide you with a better understanding of how to use it.
NOTE:
While NOT REQUIRED, I would recommend also finding my indicator called, "Ultimate RSI", which is designed to work together with this indicator (visually). They both contain the same settings and allow you to visualize changes made in this indicator that can not be displayed on the main chart.
This indicator creates it's own candles(bars), so you have to go into your main settings and turn off the "body, border and wick" color settings. Using a dark background is also recommended.
How does it work?
The indicator mainly relies on the RSI indicator with Bollinger Bands for signals. (Though not entirely)
First, there are something that I call "Watch Signals", which are various Bollinger Band crossing events. This could be the price crossing Bollinger Bands or the RSI crossing Bollinger Bands.
There are separate watch signals for buys and sells. Buy watch signals are colored orange to match the BUY signal candle color and Fuchsia (kind of a bright purple) to match SELL signal candles.
In order for most buy or sell signals to be created, there must first be a watch signal. There is a lookback period (or length) for watch signals to be used, and after that many candles (bars) have passed, they will be ignored. You can set a length to look back as well as a time to wait before creating any.
What this means is that if there has previously been (for instance) a sell signal. You can tell it to wait 10 bars before creating any buy watch signals. You can then also tell it that it should look back 10 bars from the current one in order to find any buy watch signals. This means that if you had it set up that way 10 to wait and 10 to validate, it would start allowing buy watch signals 11 bars after a sell, and then once you hit 20 bars, it will start leaving a gap (invisible to you) as the 10 bar lookback period starts moving forward with each new bar. This is useful in order to keep signals more spaced apart as some bad signals come quickly after another one.
Example: You may get a sell signal where the Bollinger bands are tight, then the price easily drops down into the lower band creating a buy watch signal, then you get a "fake" or short pump up and it says buy, but then drops dramatically afterwards. The wait period can ensure that the sell stays in effect longer before a buy is considered by blocking any buy watch signals for a period of time.
After you get a watch signal, the system then looks for various other things to happen to create buy or sell signals. This could be the RSI crossing the (slow) RSI Basis line (from its Bollinger bands), it could be the price crossing its basis line, it could be MACD crosses, it could even be RSI crossing certain levels. All of these are options. If you like the MACD strategy and want it to give you buy and sell signals from just MACD crosses, simply select that option for signals.
It is also able to use the first of any of the options that takes place.
I included an option to force alternating buy and sell signals, rather than showing groups of, or subsequent buy, buy, buy signals, for instance.
Moving on....
You can change the moving average that is used to calculate the RSI. The standard moving average for RSI is the RMA (aka SWMA). Changes to this can dramatically change your signals. You also have the option to change the moving average type used in the Bollinger bands calculation. You can change the length of these as well. The same goes for the Bollinger bands over the Price chart. I added an ATR option for the RSI Bollinger bands to play with, as well. You are able to adjust the standard deviation (multiplier) of the bands as well, which will of course affect the signals.
The ways you can play with signals are nearly infinite, so have fun figuring it out.
The indicator allows for moving averages to be shown as well, with a variety of types to choose from. The standard numbers are 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200, with the addition of a custom moving average of your choice. You can also change the color of this one. You can choose to show them all or any of them you want to show, in any combination, although the TYPE of moving average (SMA, EMA, WMA, etc.) will apply to all of them.
You may also notice the Bollinger Bands over the Price are colored, and become more or less transparent.
The color is derived from the trend of the RSI or the RSI basis (your choice). It looks back at the value however many bars you want and compares the values and that's how it determines if it is trending up or down. Since RSI is a directional momentum indicator, this can be quite useful. If you see the bands are getting darker, this will explain why.
The indicator has a lookback period for determining the widest the bands (which measure volatility) have been over that period of time. This is the baseline. It then will make the bands disappear (by making them more transparent) if the volatility is low. This indicates that a change in volatility is coming and that price isn't really changing much compared to the past (default 500) bars. If they become bright, this is because price has started trending in a direction and volatility is increasing.
I should also note that the candles are colored based on RSI levels.
If you use the Ultimate Companion indicator, you will be able to see the RSI levels (zones) that the colors are based on. As RSI moves into a new range, the candle color will change.
I have created a yellow zone where the candles turn yellow. This is when RSI is between (default) 45 and 55, indicating there is basically no momentum and price is going sideways. This is a good place to get trapped in bad trades, and there is a Yellow RSI Filter to block signals in this area to keep you from entering bad trades.
Green candles indicate values over 55 (getting brighter as RSI rises) and red candles are RSI values under 45 (getting brighter as RSI values get lower). If you see white, this means RSI is either over 80 or under 20. A sharp reversal is almost always imminent at this stage.
When we talk about Buy and Sell Signals, they draw a green or red triangle and it literally says BUY or SELL. There is an option to color the background for added visibility. These signals do not "repaint", what this means is that they can be late. To account for this, I have included a background color that will flash as a warning that a buy or sell could be imminent, although it may fail to break through and set a buy or sell signal. This is simply an advanced warning. The reason is that sometimes a candle may be very large and you won't be told to buy or sell during the candle until the move is completely over and now you're getting in on the next one. That's not a great feeling, so I made it repaint the background color and not repaint the completed signal. You get the best of both worlds.
This indicator also uses complex logic to handle things.
When there is a buy signal, it enters into a state of having been bought, or a "bought state". The same for sells. If Force alternating signals is off, you could have more than one buy in a bought state, or more than one sell in a sell state. There is an option to color the background green during the full duration of a bought state, or red during the full duration of a sold state.
I have added divergence.
This shows that the lows or highs of RSI and PRICE are different. If RSI is making higher highs but the price is not, then the price is likely to follow this bullish divergence, if the opposite happens, it's bearish. It will draw a line on the chart connecting the highs and lows and call it bearish or bullish. You can adjust this as well.
I have an RSI High/Low filter. If the RSI basis (or average) is very high or low, you can block signal from this area since the price is likely to continue in that direction before actually reversing.
You can change the settings of the MACD if you choose to use it for signals, and if you want to see it, you'll have to run that indicator below the chart and match the settings to see what is going on, just like the RSI.
Going back to Watch Signals. You can also choose to require more than one watch signal if you choose. You can skip watch signals, so it will ignore the first or second one, whatever you want to do. You can color the background to show you where watch signals have been skipped.
Regarding the wait period for creating watch signals after a sell or after a buy, you can also color the background to see where these were blocked by the wait period.
Lastly you can choose which type of watch signals to use, or keep them from being shown on the chart. This allows you to study the history of how the asset you are trading behaves and customize the behavior of signals based on your study of it.
Everything in the settings area has tooltips, which will explain what that thing does to help you along this journey.
I hope this indicator (and perhaps Ultimate RSI alongside this) will help you take your trading to the next level.
Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levelsYelober – Market Internals + Key Levels is a focused intraday trading tool that helps you spot high-probability price direction by anchoring decisions to structure that matters: yesterday’s RTH High/Low, today’s pre-market High/Low, and a fast Value Area/POC from the prior session. Paired with a compact market internals dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ UVOL vs. DVOL ratios, VOLD slopes, TICK/TICKQ momentum, and optional VIX trend), it gives you a real-time read on breadth so you can choose which direction to trade, when to enter (breaks, retests, or fades at PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC), and how to plan exits as internals confirm or deteriorate. On top of these intraday decision benefits, it also allows traders—in a very subtle but powerful way—to keep an eye on the VIX and immediately recognize significant spikes or sharp decreases that should be factored in before entering a trade, or used as a quick signal to modify an existing position. In short: clear levels for the chart, live internals for the context, and a smarter, rules-based path to execution.
# Yelober – Market Internals + Key Levels
*A TradingView indicator for session key levels + real‑time market internals (NYSE/NASDAQ TICK, UVOL/DVOL/VOLD, and VIX).*
**Script name in Pine:** `Yelober - Market Internal direction+ Key levels` (Pine v6)
---
## 1) What this indicator does
**Purpose:** Help intraday traders quickly find high‑probability reaction zones and read market internals momentum without switching charts. It overlays yesterday/today’s **automatic price levels** on your active chart and shows a **market breadth table** that summarizes NYSE/NASDAQ buying pressure and TICK direction, with an optional VIX trend read.
### Key features at a glance
* **Automatic Price Levels (overlay on chart)**
* Yesterday’s High/Low of Day (**yHoD**, **yLoD**)
* Extended Hours High/Low (**yEHH**, **yEHL**) across yesterday AH + today pre‑market
* Today’s Pre‑Market High/Low (**PMH**, **PML**)
* Yesterday’s **Value Area High/Low** (**VAH/VAL**) and **Point of Control (POC)** computed from a volume profile of yesterday’s **regular session**
* Smart de‑duplication:
* Shows **only the higher** of (yEHH vs PMH) and **only the lower** of (yEHL vs PML) to avoid redundant bands
* **Market Breadth Table (on‑chart table)**
* **NYSE ratio** = UVOL/DVOL (signed) with **VOLD slope** from session open
* **NASDAQ ratio** = UVOLQ/DVOLQ (signed) with **VOLDQ slope** from session open
* **TICK** and **TICKQ**: live cumulative ratio and short‑term slope
* **VIX** (optional): current value + slope over a configurable lookback/timeframe
* Color‑coded trends with sensible thresholds and optional normalization
---
## 2) How to use it (trader workflow)
1. **Mark your reaction zones**
* Watch **yHoD/yLoD**, **PMH/PML**, and **VAH/VAL/POC** for first touches, break/retest, and failure tests.
* Expect increased responsiveness when multiple levels cluster (e.g., PMH ≈ VAH ≈ daily pivot).
2. **Read the breadth panel for context**
* **NYSE/NASDAQ ratio** (>1 = more up‑volume than down‑volume; <−1 = down‑dominant). Strong green across both favors long setups; red favors short setups.
* **VOLD slopes** (NYSE & NASDAQ): positive and accelerating → broadening participation; negative → persistent pressure.
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative ratio and **slope arrows** (↗ / ↘ / →). Use the slope to gauge **near‑term thrust or fade**.
* **VIX slope**: rising VIX (red) often coincides with risk‑off; falling VIX (green) with risk‑on.
3. **Confluence = higher confidence**
* Example: Price reclaims **PMH** while **NYSE/NASDAQ ratios** print green and **TICK slopes** point ↗ — consider break‑and‑go; if VIX slope is ↘, that adds risk‑on confidence.
* Example: Price rejects **VAH** while **VOLD slopes** roll negative and VIX ↗ — consider fade/reversal.
4. **Risk management**
* Place stops just beyond key levels tested; if breadth flips, tighten or exit.
> **Timeframes:** Works best on 1–15m charts for intraday. Value Area is computed from **yesterday’s RTH**; choose a smaller calculation timeframe (e.g., 5–15m) for stable profiles.
---
## 3) Inputs & settings (what each option controls)
### Global Style
* **Enable all automatic price levels**: master toggle for yHoD/yLoD, yEHH/yEHL, PMH/PML, VAH/VAL/POC.
* **Line style/width**: applies to all drawn levels.
* **Label size/style** and **label color linking**: use the same color as the line or override with a global label color.
* **Maximum bars lookback**: how far the script scans to build yesterday metrics (performance‑sensitive).
### Value Area / Volume Profile
* **Enable Value Area calculations** *(on by default)*: computes yesterday’s **POC**, **VAH**, **VAL** from a simplified intraday volume profile built from yesterday’s **regular session bars**.
* **Max Volume Profile Points** *(default 50)*: lower values = faster; higher = more precise.
* **Value Area Calculation Timeframe** *(default 15)*: the security timeframe used when collecting yesterday’s highs/lows/volumes.
### Individual Level Toggles & Colors
* **yHoD / yLoD** (yesterday high/low)
* **yEHH / yEHL** (yesterday AH + today pre‑market extremes)
* **PMH / PML** (today pre‑market extremes)
* **VAH / VAL / POC** (yesterday RTH value area + point of control)
### Market Breadth Panel
* **Show NYSE / NASDAQ / VIX**: choose which series to display in the table.
* **Table Position / Size / Background Color**: UI placement and legibility.
* **Slope Averaging Periods** *(default 5)*: number of recent TICK/TICKQ ratio points used in slope calculation.
* **Candles for Rate** *(default 10)* & **Normalize Rate**: VIX slope calculation as % change between `now` and `n` candles ago; normalize divides by `n`.
* **VIX Timeframe**: optionally compute VIX on a higher TF (e.g., 15, 30, 60) for a smoother regime read.
* **Volume Normalization** (NYSE & NASDAQ): display VOLD slopes scaled to `tens/thousands/millions/10th millions` for readable magnitudes; color thresholds adapt to your choice.
---
## 4) Data sources & definitions
* **UVOL/VOLD (NYSE)** and **UVOLQ/DVOLQ/VOLDQ (NASDAQ)** via `request.security()`
* **Ratio** = `UVOL/DVOL` (signed; negative when down‑volume dominates)
* **VOLD slope** ≈ `(VOLD_now − VOLD_open) / bars_since_open`, then normalized per your setting
* **TICK/TICKQ**: cumulative sum of prints this session with **positives vs negatives ratio**, plus a simple linear regression **slope** of the last `N` ratio values
* **VIX**: value and slope across a user‑selected timeframe and lookback
* **Sessions (EST/EDT)**
* **Regular:** 09:30–16:00
* **Pre‑Market:** 04:00–09:30
* **After Hours:** 16:00–20:00
* **Extended‑hours extremes** combine **yesterday AH** + **today PM**
> **Note:** All session checks are done with TradingView’s `time(…,"America/New_York")` context. If your broker’s RTH differs (e.g., futures), adjust expectations accordingly.
---
## 5) How the algorithms work (plain English)
### A) Key Levels
* **Yesterday’s RTH High/Low**: scans yesterday’s bars within 09:30–16:00 and records the extremes + bar indices.
* **Extended Hours**: scans yesterday AH and today PM to get **yEHH/yEHL**. Script shows **either yEHH or PMH** (whichever is **higher**) and **either yEHL or PML** (whichever is **lower**) to avoid duplicate bands stacked together.
* **Value Area & POC (RTH only)**
* Build a coarse volume profile with `Max Volume Profile Points` buckets across the price range formed by yesterday’s RTH bars.
* Distribute each bar’s volume uniformly across the buckets it spans (fast approximation to keep Pine within execution limits).
* **POC** = bucket with max volume. **VA** expands from POC outward until **70%** of cumulative volume is enclosed → yields **VAH/VAL**.
### B) Market Breadth Table
* **NYSE/NASDAQ Ratio**: signed UVOL/DVOL with basic coloring.
* **VOLD Slopes**: from session open to current, normalized to human‑readable units; colors flip green/red based on thresholds that map to your normalization setting (e.g., ±2M for NYSE, ±3.5×10M for NASDAQ).
* **TICK/TICKQ Slope**: linear regression over the last `N` ratio points → **↗ / → / ↘** with the rounded slope value.
* **VIX Slope**: % change between now and `n` candles ago (optionally divided by `n`). Red when rising beyond threshold; green when falling.
---
## 6) Recommended presets
* **Stocks (liquid, intraday)**
* Value Area **ON**, `Max Volume Points` = **40–60**, **Timeframe** = **5–15**
* Breadth: show **NYSE & NASDAQ & VIX**, `Slope periods` = **5–8**, `Candles for rate` = **10–20**, **Normalize VIX** = **ON**
* **Index futures / very high‑volume symbols**
* If you see Pine timeouts, set `Max Volume Points` = **20–40** or temporarily **disable Value Area**.
* Keep breadth panel **ON** (it’s light). Consider **VIX timeframe = 15/30** for regime clarity.
---
## 7) Tips, edge cases & performance
* **Performance:** The volume profile is capped (`maxBarsToProcess ≤ 500` and bucketed) to keep it responsive. If you experience slowdowns, reduce `Max Volume Points`, `Maximum bars lookback`, or disable Value Area.
* **Redundant lines:** The script **intentionally suppresses** PMH/PML when yEHH/yEHL are more extreme, and vice‑versa.
* **Label visibility:** Use `Label style = none` if you only want clean lines and read values from the right‑end labels.
* **Futures/RTH differences:** Value Area is from **yesterday’s RTH** only; for 24h instruments the RTH period may not reflect overnight structure.
* **Session transitions:** PMH/PML tracking stops as soon as RTH starts; values persist as static levels for the session.
---
## 8) Known limitations
* Uses public TradingView symbols: `UVOL`, `VOLD`, `UVOLQ`, `DVOLQ`, `VOLDQ`, `TICK`, `TICKQ`, `VIX`. If your data plan or region limits any symbol, the corresponding table rows may show `na`.
* The VA/POC approximation assumes uniform distribution of each bar’s volume across its high–low. That’s fast but not a tick‑level profile.
* Works best on US equities with standard NY session; alternative sessions may need code changes.
---
## 9) Troubleshooting
* **“Script is too slow / timed out”** → Lower `Max Volume Points`, lower `Maximum bars lookback`, or toggle **OFF** `Enable Value Area calculations` for that instrument.
* **Missing breadth values** → Ensure the symbols above load on your account; try reloading chart or switching timeframes once.
* **Overlapping labels** → Set `Label style = none` or reduce label size.
---
## 10) Version / license / contribution
* **Version:** Initial public release (Pine v6).
* **Author:** © yelober
* **License:** Free for community use and enhancement. Please keep author credit.
* **Contributing:** Open PRs/ideas: presets, alert conditions, multi‑day VA composites, optional mid‑value (`(VAH+VAL)/2`), session filter for futures, and alertable state machine for breadth regime transitions.
---
## 11) Quick start (TL;DR)
1. Add the indicator and **keep default settings**.
2. Trade **reactions** at yHoD/yLoD/PMH/PML/VAH/VAL/POC.
3. Use the **breadth table**: look for **green ratios + ↗ slopes** (risk‑on) or **red ratios + ↘ slopes** (risk‑off). Check **VIX** slope for confirmation.
4. Manage risk around levels; when breadth flips against you, tighten or exit.
---
### Changelog (public)
* **v1.0:** First community release with automatic RTH levels, VA/POC approximation, breadth dashboard (NYSE/NASDAQ/TICK/TICKQ/VIX) with normalization and adaptive color thresholds.
ES Gap Trading Levels# ES Gap Trading Levels
## Overview
A professional gap trading indicator designed specifically for ES Futures traders. This indicator automatically captures the closing price at 3:59 PM ET (NYSE close) and immediately displays key gap levels for the evening trading session starting at 6:00 PM ET.
## Key Features
### ✅ **Automatic Gap Level Detection**
- Captures ES Futures closing price at 3:59-4:00 PM ET
- Instantly displays gap levels for immediate session planning
- Resets daily for fresh gap analysis
### ✅ **Six Critical Gap Levels**
- **±10 Points** (White lines) - Short-term gap targets
- **±20 Points** (Light Blue lines) - Medium gap targets
- **±30 Points** (Red lines) - Extended gap targets
### ✅ **Professional Display**
- Clean horizontal lines with customizable colors
- Clear labels showing point values (+30, +20, +10, -10, -20, -30)
- Gap levels table showing exact price targets
- Optional closing price reference line
### ✅ **Customizable Settings**
- Adjustable line colors, width, and extension
- Toggle labels and reference table on/off
- Manual closing price override for testing
- Debug mode for troubleshooting
### ✅ **Smart Management**
- Automatic cleanup of previous day's levels
- Lines appear immediately after market close
- Optimized for ES1!, MES1!, and other ES futures contracts
## How It Works
1. **Market Close Capture**: At 3:59 PM ET, the indicator captures the ES closing price
2. **Instant Display**: Gap levels immediately appear on your chart
3. **Evening Session Ready**: Lines are positioned for 6:00 PM ET session start
4. **Daily Reset**: Old levels are automatically cleared each new trading day
## Perfect For:
- Gap trading strategies
- Overnight futures trading
- ES futures scalping
- Session transition analysis
- Risk management levels
## Usage Tips:
- Best used on 1-15 minute ES futures charts
- Ensure chart timezone shows ET times
- Use manual mode for backtesting specific dates
- Combine with volume and momentum indicators
## Settings Guide:
- **Display Settings**: Control lines, labels, and table visibility
- **Colors**: Customize each gap level color scheme
- **Manual Settings**: Override closing price for testing
- **Debug**: View time detection and diagnostic information
*Designed by traders, for traders. Clean, professional, and reliable gap level detection for serious ES futures trading.*
Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI)Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI)
What is Lyapunov Market Instability?
Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI) is a revolutionary indicator that brings chaos theory from theoretical physics into practical trading. By calculating Lyapunov exponents—a measure of how rapidly nearby trajectories diverge in phase space—LMI quantifies market sensitivity to initial conditions. This isn't another oscillator or trend indicator; it's a mathematical lens that reveals whether markets are in chaotic (trending) or stable (ranging) regimes.
Inspired by the meditative color field paintings of Mark Rothko, this indicator transforms complex chaos mathematics into an intuitive visual experience. The elegant simplicity of the visualization belies the sophisticated theory underneath—just as Rothko's seemingly simple color blocks contain profound depth.
Theoretical Foundation (Chaos Theory & Lyapunov Exponents)
In dynamical systems, the Lyapunov exponent (λ) measures the rate of separation of infinitesimally close trajectories:
λ > 0: System is chaotic—small changes lead to dramatically different outcomes (butterfly effect)
λ < 0: System is stable—trajectories converge, perturbations die out
λ ≈ 0: Edge of chaos—transition between regimes
Phase Space Reconstruction
Using Takens' embedding theorem , we reconstruct market dynamics in higher dimensions:
Time-delay embedding: Create vectors from price at different lags
Nearest neighbor search: Find historically similar market states
Trajectory evolution: Track how these similar states diverged over time
Divergence rate: Calculate average exponential separation
Market Application
Chaotic markets (λ > threshold): Strong trends emerge, momentum dominates, use breakout strategies
Stable markets (λ < threshold): Mean reversion dominates, fade extremes, range-bound strategies work
Transition zones: Market regime about to change, reduce position size, wait for confirmation
How LMI Works
1. Phase Space Construction
Each point in time is embedded as a vector using historical prices at specific delays (τ). This reveals the market's hidden attractor structure.
2. Lyapunov Calculation
For each current state, we:
- Find similar historical states within epsilon (ε) distance
- Track how these initially similar states evolved
- Measure exponential divergence rate
- Average across multiple trajectories for robustness
3. Signal Generation
Chaos signals: When λ crosses above threshold, market enters trending regime
Stability signals: When λ crosses below threshold, market enters ranging regime
Divergence detection: Price/Lyapunov divergences signal potential reversals
4. Rothko Visualization
Color fields: Background zones represent market states with Rothko-inspired palettes
Glowing line: Lyapunov exponent with intensity reflecting market state
Minimalist design: Focus on essential information without clutter
Inputs:
📐 Lyapunov Parameters
Embedding Dimension (default: 3)
Dimensions for phase space reconstruction
2-3: Simple dynamics (crypto/forex) - captures basic momentum patterns
4-5: Complex dynamics (stocks/indices) - captures intricate market structures
Higher dimensions need exponentially more data but reveal deeper patterns
Time Delay τ (default: 1)
Lag between phase space coordinates
1: High-frequency (1m-15m charts) - captures rapid market shifts
2-3: Medium frequency (1H-4H) - balances noise and signal
4-5: Low frequency (Daily+) - focuses on major regime changes
Match to your timeframe's natural cycle
Initial Separation ε (default: 0.001)
Neighborhood size for finding similar states
0.0001-0.0005: Highly liquid markets (major forex pairs)
0.0005-0.002: Normal markets (large-cap stocks)
0.002-0.01: Volatile markets (crypto, small-caps)
Smaller = more sensitive to chaos onset
Evolution Steps (default: 10)
How far to track trajectory divergence
5-10: Fast signals for scalping - quick regime detection
10-20: Balanced for day trading - reliable signals
20-30: Slow signals for swing trading - major regime shifts only
Nearest Neighbors (default: 5)
Phase space points for averaging
3-4: Noisy/fast markets - adapts quickly
5-6: Balanced (recommended) - smooth yet responsive
7-10: Smooth/slow markets - very stable signals
📊 Signal Parameters
Chaos Threshold (default: 0.05)
Lyapunov value above which market is chaotic
0.01-0.03: Sensitive - more chaos signals, earlier detection
0.05: Balanced - optimal for most markets
0.1-0.2: Conservative - only strong trends trigger
Stability Threshold (default: -0.05)
Lyapunov value below which market is stable
-0.01 to -0.03: Sensitive - quick stability detection
-0.05: Balanced - reliable ranging signals
-0.1 to -0.2: Conservative - only deep stability
Signal Smoothing (default: 3)
EMA period for noise reduction
1-2: Raw signals for experienced traders
3-5: Balanced - recommended for most
6-10: Very smooth for position traders
🎨 Rothko Visualization
Rothko Classic: Deep reds for chaos, midnight blues for stability
Orange/Red: Warm sunset tones throughout
Blue/Black: Cool, meditative ocean depths
Purple/Grey: Subtle, sophisticated palette
Visual Options:
Market Zones : Background fields showing regime areas
Transitions: Arrows marking regime changes
Divergences: Labels for price/Lyapunov divergences
Dashboard: Real-time state and trading signals
Guide: Educational panel explaining the theory
Visual Logic & Interpretation
Main Elements
Lyapunov Line: The heart of the indicator
Above chaos threshold: Market is trending, follow momentum
Below stability threshold: Market is ranging, fade extremes
Between thresholds: Transition zone, reduce risk
Background Zones: Rothko-inspired color fields
Red zone: Chaotic regime (trending)
Gray zone: Transition (uncertain)
Blue zone: Stable regime (ranging)
Transition Markers:
Up triangle: Entering chaos - start trend following
Down triangle: Entering stability - start mean reversion
Divergence Signals:
Bullish: Price makes low but Lyapunov rising (stability breaking down)
Bearish: Price makes high but Lyapunov falling (chaos dissipating)
Dashboard Information
Market State: Current regime (Chaotic/Stable/Transitioning)
Trading Bias: Specific strategy recommendation
Lyapunov λ: Raw value for precision
Signal Strength: Confidence in current regime
Last Change: Bars since last regime shift
Action: Clear trading directive
Trading Strategies
In Chaotic Regime (λ > threshold)
Follow trends aggressively: Breakouts have high success rate
Use momentum strategies: Moving average crossovers work well
Wider stops: Expect larger swings
Pyramid into winners: Trends tend to persist
In Stable Regime (λ < threshold)
Fade extremes: Mean reversion dominates
Use oscillators: RSI, Stochastic work well
Tighter stops: Smaller expected moves
Scale out at targets: Trends don't persist
In Transition Zone
Reduce position size: Uncertainty is high
Wait for confirmation: Let regime establish
Use options: Volatility strategies may work
Monitor closely: Quick changes possible
Advanced Techniques
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Higher timeframe LMI for regime context
- Lower timeframe for entry timing
- Alignment = highest probability trades
- Divergence Trading
- Most powerful at regime boundaries
- Combine with support/resistance
- Use for early reversal detection
- Volatility Correlation
- Chaos often precedes volatility expansion
- Stability often precedes volatility contraction
- Use for options strategies
Originality & Innovation
LMI represents a genuine breakthrough in applying chaos theory to markets:
True Lyapunov Calculation: Not a simplified proxy but actual phase space reconstruction and divergence measurement
Rothko Aesthetic: Transforms complex math into meditative visual experience
Regime Detection: Identifies market state changes before price makes them obvious
Practical Application: Clear, actionable signals from theoretical physics
This is not a combination of existing indicators or a visual makeover of standard tools. It's a fundamental rethinking of how we measure and visualize market dynamics.
Best Practices
Start with defaults: Parameters are optimized for broad market conditions
Match to your timeframe: Adjust tau and evolution steps
Confirm with price action: LMI shows regime, not direction
Use appropriate strategies: Chaos = trend, Stability = reversion
Respect transitions: Reduce risk during regime changes
Alerts Available
Chaos Entry: Market entering chaotic regime - prepare for trends
Stability Entry: Market entering stable regime - prepare for ranges
Bullish Divergence: Potential bottom forming
Bearish Divergence: Potential top forming
Chart Information
Script Name: Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI) Recommended Use: All markets, all timeframes Best Performance: Liquid markets with clear regimes
Academic References
Takens, F. (1981). "Detecting strange attractors in turbulence"
Wolf, A. et al. (1985). "Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series"
Rosenstein, M. et al. (1993). "A practical method for calculating largest Lyapunov exponents"
Note: After completing this indicator, I discovered @loxx's 2022 "Lyapunov Hodrick-Prescott Oscillator w/ DSL". While both explore Lyapunov exponents, they represent independent implementations with different methodologies and applications. This indicator uses phase space reconstruction for regime detection, while his combines Lyapunov concepts with HP filtering.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for research and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or provide direct buy/sell signals. Chaos theory reveals market character, not future prices. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See markets through the lens of chaos. Trade the regime, not the noise.
Bringing theoretical physics to practical trading through the meditative aesthetics of Mark Rothko
Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
SMC Entry Signals MTF v2📘 User Guide for the SMC Entry Signals MTF v2 Indicator
🎯 Purpose of the Indicator
This indicator is designed to identify reversal entry points based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and candlestick confirmation. It’s especially useful for traders who use:
Imbalance zones, order blocks, breaker blocks
Liquidity grabs
Multi-timeframe confirmation (MTF)
📈 How to Use the Signals on the Chart
✅ LONG Signal (green triangle below the candle):
Conditions:
Price is in a discount zone (below the FIB 50% level)
A bullish engulfing candle appears
A bullish Order Block (OB) or Breaker Block is detected
There’s an upward imbalance
A bullish OB is confirmed on the higher timeframe
➡️ How to act:
Consider entering long on the current or next candle.
Place your stop-loss below the OB or the nearest swing low.
Take profit at the nearest liquidity zone or premium area (above FIB 50%).
🔻 SHORT Signal (red triangle above the candle):
Conditions:
Price is in a premium zone (above FIB 50%)
A bearish engulfing candle appears
A bearish OB or Breaker Block is detected
There’s a downward imbalance
A bearish OB is confirmed on the higher timeframe
➡️ How to act:
Consider short entry after the signal.
Place your stop-loss above the OB or swing high.
Target the discount zone or the next liquidity pocket.
⚙️ Recommended Settings by Trading Style
Trading Style Suggested Settings Notes
Intraday (1–15m) fibLookback = 20–50, obLookback = 5–10, htf_tf = 1H/4H Fast signals. Use Discount/Premium + Engulfing.
Swing/Position (1H–1D) fibLookback = 50–100, obLookback = 10–20, htf_tf = 1D/1W Higher trust in MTF confirmation. Ideal with fundamentals.
Scalping (1m) fibLookback = 10–20, obLookback = 3–5, htf_tf = 15m/1H Remove Breaker and MTF for quick reaction trades.
🧠 Best Practices for Traders
Trend Filtering:
Use EMAs or volume to confirm the current trend.
Take longs only in uptrends, shorts in downtrends.
Liquidity Zones:
Use this indicator after liquidity grabs.
OBs and Breakers often appear right after stop hunts.
Combine with Manual Zones:
This works best when paired with manually drawn OBs and key levels.
Backtest the Signals:
Use Bar Replay mode on TradingView to test past signals.
🧪 Example Trade Setup
Example on BTCUSDT 15m:
Price drops into the discount zone.
A green triangle appears (bullish engulfing + OB + imbalance + HTF OB).
You enter long, stop below the OB, target the premium zone.
🎯 This type of setup often gives a risk/reward ratio of 1:2 or better — profitable even with a 40% win rate.
⏰ Alerts & Automation
Enable alerts:
"SMC Long Entry" — fires when a long signal appears.
"SMC Short Entry" — fires when a short signal appears.
You can integrate this with bots via webhook, like:
TradingConnector, 3Commas, Alertatron, etc.
✅ What This Indicator Gives You
High-probability entries using SMC logic
Customizable filters for entry logic
Multi-timeframe confirmation for stronger setups
Suitable for both intraday and swing trading
*Auto Backtest & Optimize EngineFull-featured Engine for Automatic Backtesting and parameter optimization. Allows you to test millions of different combinations of stop-loss and take profit parameters, including on any connected indicators.
⭕️ Key Futures
Quickly identify the optimal parameters for your strategy.
Automatically generate and test thousands of parameter combinations.
A simple Genetic Algorithm for result selection.
Saves time on manual testing of multiple parameters.
Detailed analysis, sorting, filtering and statistics of results.
Detailed control panel with many tooltips.
Display of key metrics: Profit, Win Rate, etc..
Comprehensive Strategy Score calculation.
In-depth analysis of the performance of different types of stop-losses.
Possibility to use to calculate the best Stop-Take parameters for your position.
Ability to test your own functions and signals.
Customizable visualization of results.
Flexible Stop-Loss Settings:
• Auto ━ Allows you to test all types of Stop Losses at once(listed below).
• S.VOLATY ━ Static stop based on volatility (Fixed, ATR, STDEV).
• Trailing ━ Classic trailing stop following the price.
• Fast Trail ━ Accelerated trailing stop that reacts faster to price movements.
• Volatility ━ Dynamic stop based on volatility indicators.
• Chandelier ━ Stop based on price extremes.
• Activator ━ Dynamic stop based on SAR.
• MA ━ Stop based on moving averages (9 different types).
• SAR ━ Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse).
Advanced Take-Profit Options:
• R:R: Risk/Reward ━ sets TP based on SL size.
• T.VOLATY ━ Calculation based on volatility indicators (Fixed, ATR, STDEV).
Testing Modes:
• Stops ━ Cyclical stop-loss testing
• Pivot Point Example ━ Example of using pivot points
• External Example ━ Built-in example how test functions with different parameters
• External Signal ━ Using external signals
⭕️ Usage
━ First Steps:
When opening, select any point on the chart. It will not affect anything until you turn on Manual Start mode (more on this below).
The chart will immediately show the best results of the default Auto mode. You can switch Part's to try to find even better results in the table.
Now you can display any result from the table on the chart by entering its ID in the settings.
Repeat steps 3-4 until you determine which type of Stop Loss you like best. Then set it in the settings instead of Auto mode.
* Example: I flipped through 14 parts before I liked the first result and entered its ID so I could visually evaluate it on the chart.
Then select the stop loss type, choose it in place of Auto mode and repeat steps 3-4 or immediately follow the recommendations of the algorithm.
Now the Genetic Algorithm at the bottom right will prompt you to enter the Parameters you need to search for and select even better results.
Parameters must be entered All at once before they are updated. Enter recommendations strictly in fields with the same names.
Repeat steps 5-6 until there are approximately 10 Part's left or as you like. And after that, easily pour through the remaining Parts and select the best parameters.
━ Example of the finished result.
━ Example of use with Takes
You can also test at the same time along with Take Profit. In this example, I simply enabled Risk/Reward mode and immediately specified in the TP field Maximum RR, Minimum RR and Step. So in this example I can test (3-1) / 0.1 = 20 Takes of different sizes. There are additional tips in the settings.
━
* Soon you will start to understand how the system works and things will become much easier.
* If something doesn't work, just reset the engine settings and start over again.
* Use the tips I have left in the settings and on the Panel.
━ Details:
Sort ━ Sorting results by Score, Profit, Trades, etc..
Filter ━ Filtring results by Score, Profit, Trades, etc..
Trade Type ━ Ability to disable Long\Short but only from statistics.
BackWin ━ Backtest Window Number of Candle the script can test.
Manual Start ━ Enabling it will allow you to call a Stop from a selected point. which you selected when you started the engine.
* If you have a real open position then this mode can help to save good Stop\Take for it.
1 - 9 Сheckboxs ━ Allow you to disable any stop from Auto mode.
Ex Source - Allow you to test Stops/Takes from connected indicators.
Connection guide:
//@version=6
indicator("My script")
rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14)
buy = not na(rsi) and ta.crossover (rsi, 40) // OS = 40
sell = not na(rsi) and ta.crossunder(rsi, 60) // OB = 60
Signal = buy ? +1 : sell ? -1 : 0
plot(Signal, "🔌Connector🔌", display = display.none)
* Format the signal for your indicator in a similar style and then select it in Ex Source.
⭕️ How it Works
Hypothesis of Uniform Distribution of Rare Elements After Mixing.
'This hypothesis states that if an array of N elements contains K valid elements, then after mixing, these valid elements will be approximately uniformly distributed.'
'This means that in a random sample of k elements, the proportion of valid elements should closely match their proportion in the original array, with some random variation.'
'According to the central limit theorem, repeated sampling will result in an average count of valid elements following a normal distribution.'
'This supports the assumption that the valid elements are evenly spread across the array.'
'To test this hypothesis, we can conduct an experiment:'
'Create an array of 1,000,000 elements.'
'Select 1,000 random elements (1%) for validation.'
'Shuffle the array and divide it into groups of 1,000 elements.'
'If the hypothesis holds, each group should contain, on average, 1~ valid element, with minor variations.'
* I'd like to attach more details to My hypothesis but it won't be very relevant here. Since this is a whole separate topic, I will leave the minimum part for understanding the engine.
Practical Application
To apply this hypothesis, I needed a way to generate and thoroughly mix numerous possible combinations. Within Pine, generating over 100,000 combinations presents significant challenges, and storing millions of combinations requires excessive resources.
I developed an efficient mechanism that generates combinations in random order to address these limitations. While conventional methods often produce duplicates or require generating a complete list first, my approach guarantees that the first 10% of possible combinations are both unique and well-distributed. Based on my hypothesis, this sampling is sufficient to determine optimal testing parameters.
Most generators and randomizers fail to accommodate both my hypothesis and Pine's constraints. My solution utilizes a simple Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) for pseudo-randomization, enhanced with prime numbers to increase entropy during generation. I pre-generate the entire parameter range and then apply systematic mixing. This approach, combined with a hybrid combinatorial array-filling technique with linear distribution, delivers excellent generation quality.
My engine can efficiently generate and verify 300 unique combinations per batch. Based on the above, to determine optimal values, only 10-20 Parts need to be manually scrolled through to find the appropriate value or range, eliminating the need for exhaustive testing of millions of parameter combinations.
For the Score statistic I applied all the same, generated a range of Weights, distributed them randomly for each type of statistic to avoid manual distribution.
Score ━ based on Trade, Profit, WinRate, Profit Factor, Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino & Omega & Calmar Ratio.
⭕️ Notes
For attentive users, a little tricks :)
To save time, switch parts every 3 seconds without waiting for it to load. After 10-20 parts, stop and wait for loading. If the pause is correct, you can switch between the rest of the parts without loading, as they will be cached. This used to work without having to wait for a pause, but now it does slower. This will save a lot of time if you are going to do a deeper backtest.
Sometimes you'll get the error “The scripts take too long to execute.”
For a quick fix you just need to switch the TF or Ticker back and forth and most likely everything will load.
The error appears because of problems on the side of the site because the engine is very heavy. It can also appear if you set too long a period for testing in BackWin or use a heavy indicator for testing.
Manual Start - Allow you to Start you Result from any point. Which in turn can help you choose a good stop-stick for your real position.
* It took me half a year from idea to current realization. This seems to be one of the few ways to build something automatic in backtest format and in this particular Pine environment. There are already better projects in other languages, and they are created much easier and faster because there are no limitations except for personal PC. If you see solutions to improve this system I would be glad if you share the code. At the moment I am tired and will continue him not soon.
Also You can use my previosly big Backtest project with more manual settings(updated soon)
10yr, 20yr, 30yr Averages: Month/Month % Change; SeasonalityCalculates 10yr, 20yr and 30yr averages for month/month % change
~shows seasonal tendencies in assets (best in commodities). In above chart: August is a seasonally bullish month for Gold: All the averages agree. And January is the most seasonally bullish month.
~averages represent current month/previous month. i.e. Jan22 average % change represents whole of jan22 / whole of dec21
~designed for daily timeframe only: I found calling monthly data too buggy to work with, and I thought weekly basis may be less precise (though it would certainly reduce calculation time!)
~choose input year, and see the previous 10yrs of monthly % change readings, and previous 10yrs Average, 20yr Average, 30yr Average for the respective month. Labels table is always anchored to input year.
~user inputs: colors | label sizes | decimal places | source expression for averages | year | show/hide various sections
~multi-yr averges always print, i.e if only 10yrs history => 10yr Av = 20yr Av = 30yr Av. 'History Available' label helps here.
Based on my previously publised script: "Month/Month Percentage % Change, Historical; Seasonal Tendency"
Publishing this as seperate indicator because:
~significantly slower to load (around 13 seconds)
~non-premium users may not have the historical bars available to use 20yr or 30yr averages =>> prefer the lite/speedier version
~~tips~~
~after loading, touch the new right scale; then can drag the table as you like and seperate it from price chart
##Debugging/tweaking##
Comment-in the block at the end:
~test/verifify specific array elements elements.
~see the script calculation/load time
~~other ideas ~~
~could tweak the array.slice values in lines 313 - 355 to show the last 3 consecutive 10yr averages instead (i.e. change 0, 10 | 0,20 | 0, 30 to 0, 10 | 10, 20 | 20,30)
~add 40yr average by adding another block to each of the array functions, and tweaking the respective labels after line 313 (though this would likely add another 5 seconds to the load time)
~use alternative method for getting obtaining multi-year values from individual month elements. I used array.avg. You could try array.median, array.mode, array.variance, array.max, array.min (lines 313-355)
Multi SMA EMA WMA HMA BB (5x8 MAs Bollinger Bands) MAX MTF - RRBMulti SMA EMA WMA HMA 4x7 Moving Averages with Bollinger Bands MAX MTF by RagingRocketBull 2019
Version 1.0
All available MAX MTF versions are listed below (They are very similar and I don't want to publish them as separate indicators):
ver 1.0: 4x7 = 28 MTF MAs + 28 Levels + 3 BB = 59 < 64
ver 2.0: 5x6 = 30 MTF MAs + 30 Levels + 3 BB = 63 < 64
ver 3.0: 3x10 = 30 MTF MAs + 30 Levels + 3 BB = 63 < 64
ver 4.0: 5(4+1)x8 = 8 CurTF MAs + 32 MTF MAs + 20 Levels + 3 BB = 63 < 64
ver 5.0: 6(5+1)x6 = 6 CurTF MAs + 30 MTF MAs + 24 Levels + 3 BB = 63 < 64
ver 6.0: 4(3+1)x10 = 10 CurTF MAs + 30 MTF MAs + 20 Levels + 3 BB = 63 < 64
Fib numbers: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377
This indicator shows multiple MAs of any type SMA EMA WMA HMA etc with BB and MTF support, can show MAs as dynamically moving levels.
There are 4 MA groups + 1 BB group, a total of 4 TFs * 7 MAs = 28 MAs. You can assign any type/timeframe combo to a group, for example:
- EMAs 9,12,26,50,100,200,400 x H1, H4, D1, W1 (4 TFs x 7 MAs x 1 type)
- EMAs 8,13,21,30,34,50,55,89,100,144,200,233,377,400 x M15, H1 (2 TFs x 14 MAs x 1 type)
- D1 EMAs and SMAs 8,13,21,30,34,50,55,89,100,144,200,233,377,400 (1 TF x 14 MAs x 2 types)
- H1 WMAs 13,21,34,55,89,144,233; H4 HMAs 9,12,26,50,100,200,400; D1 EMAs 12,26,89,144,169,233,377; W1 SMAs 9,12,26,50,100,200,400 (4 TFs x 7 MAs x 4 types)
- +1 extra MA type/timeframe for BB
There are several versions: Simple, MTF, Pro MTF, Advanced MTF, MAX MTF and Ultimate MTF. This is the MAX MTF version. The Differences are listed below. All versions have BB
- Simple: you have 2 groups of MAs that can be assigned any type (5+5)
- MTF: +2 custom Timeframes for each group (2x5 MTF) +1 TF for BB, TF XY smoothing
- Pro MTF: 4 custom Timeframes for each group (4x3 MTF), 1 TF for BB, MA levels and show max bars back options
- Advanced MTF: +4 extra MAs/group (4x7 MTF), custom Ticker/Symbols, Timeframe <>= filter, Remove Duplicates Option
- MAX MTF: +2 subtypes/group, packed to the limit with max possible MAs/TFs: 4x7, 5x6, 3x10, 4(3+1)x10, 5(4+1)x8, 6(5+1)x6
- Ultimate MTF: +individual settings for each MA, custom Ticker/Symbols
MAX MTF version tests the limits of Pinescript trying to squeeze as many MAs/TFs as possible into a single indicator.
It's basically a maxed out Advanced version with subtypes allowing for mixed types within a group (i.e. both emas and smas in a single group/TF)
Pinescript has the following limits:
- max 40 security calls (6 calls are reserved for dupe checks and smoothing, 2 are used for BB, so only 32 calls are available)
- max 64 plot outputs (BB uses 3 outputs, so only 61 plot outputs are available)
- max 50000 (50kb) size of the compiled code
Based on those limits, you can only have the following MAs/TFs combos in a single script:
1. 4x7, 5x6, 3x10 - total number of MTF MAs must always be <= 32, and you can still have BB and Num Levels = total MAs, without any compromises
2. 5(4+1)x8, 6(5+1)x6, 4(3+1)x10 - you can use the Current Symbol/Timeframe as an extra (+1) fixed TF with the same number of MTF MAs
- you don't need to call security to display MAs on the Current Symbol/Timeframe, so the total number of MTF MAs remains the same and is still <= 32
- to fit that many MAs into the max 64 plot outputs limit you need to reduce the number of levels (not every MA Group will have corresponding levels)
Features:
- 4x7 = 28 MAs of any type
- 4x MTF groups with XY step line smoothing
- +1 extra TF/type for BB MAs
- 2 MA subtypes within each group/TF
- 4x7 = 28 MA levels with adjustable group offsets, indents and shift
- supports any existing type of MA: SMA, EMA, WMA, Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- custom tickers/symbols for each group
- show max bars back option
- show/hide both groups of MAs/levels/BB and individual MAs
- timeframe filter: show only MAs/Levels with TFs <>= Current TF
- hide MAs/Levels with duplicate TFs
- support for custom TFs that are not available in free accounts: 2D, 3D etc
- support for timeframes in H: H, 2H, 4H etc
Notes:
- Uses timeframe textbox instead of input resolution dropdown to allow for 240 120 and other custom TFs
- Uses symbol textbox instead of input symbol to avoid establishing multiple dummy security connections to the current ticker - otherwise empty symbols will prevent script from running
- Possible reasons for missing MAs on a chart:
- there may not be enough bars in history to start plotting it. For example, W1 EMA200 needs at least 200 bars on a weekly chart.
- for charts with low/fractional prices i.e. 0.00002 << 0.001 (default Y smoothing step) decrease Y smoothing as needed (set Y = 0.0000001) or disable it completely (set X,Y to 0,0)
- for charts with high price values i.e. 20000 >> 0.001 increase Y smoothing as needed (set Y = 10-20). Higher values exceeding MAs point density will cause it to disappear as there will be no points to plot. Different TFs may require diff adjustments
- TradingView Replay Mode UI and Pinescript security calls are limited to TFs >= D (D,2D,W,MN...) for free accounts
- attempting to plot any TF < D1 in Replay Mode will only result in straight lines, but all TFs will work properly in history and real-time modes. This is not a bug.
- Max Bars Back (num_bars) is limited to 5000 for free accounts (10000 for paid), will show error when exceeded. To plot on all available history set to 0 (default)
- Slow load/redraw times. This indicator becomes slower, its UI less responsive when:
- Pinescript Node.js graphics library is too slow and inefficient at plotting bars/objects in a browser window. Code optimization doesn't help much - the graphics engine is the main reason for general slowness.
- the chart has a long history (10000+ bars) in a browser's cache (you have scrolled back a couple of screens in a max zoom mode).
- Reload the page/Load a fresh chart and then apply the indicator or
- Switch to another Timeframe (old TF history will still remain in cache and that TF will be slow)
- in max possible zoom mode around 4500 bars can fit on 1 screen - this also slows down responsiveness. Reset Zoom level
- initial load and redraw times after a param change in UI also depend on TF. For example: D1/W1 - 2 sec, H1/H4 - 5-6 sec, M30 - 10 sec, M15/M5 - 4 sec, M1 - 5 sec. M30 usually has the longest history (up to 16000 bars) and W1 - the shortest (1000 bars).
- when indicator uses more MAs (plots) and timeframes it will redraw slower. Seems that up to 5 Timeframes is acceptable, but 6+ Timeframes can become very slow.
- show_last=last_bars plot limit doesn't affect load/redraw times, so it was removed from MA plot
- Max Bars Back (num_bars) default/custom set UI value doesn't seem to affect load/redraw times
- In max zoom mode all dynamic levels disappear (they behave like text)
- Dupe check includes symbol: symbol, tf, both subtypes - all must match for a duplicate group
- For the dupe check to work correctly a custom symbol must always include an exchange prefix. BB is not checked for dupes
Good Luck! Feel free to learn from/reuse the code to build your own indicators.
All SMAs Bullish/Bearish Screener (Enhanced)All SMAs Bullish/Bearish Screener Enhanced: Uncover High-Conviction Trend Alignments with Confidence
Description:
Are you ready to elevate your trading from mere guesswork to precise, data-driven decisions? The "All SMAs Bullish/Bearish Screener Enhanced" is not just another indicator; it's a sophisticated, yet user-friendly, trend-following powerhouse designed to cut through market noise and pinpoint high-probability trading opportunities. Built on the foundational strength of comprehensive Moving Average confluence and fortified with critical confirmation signals from Momentum, Volume, and Relative Strength, this script empowers you to identify truly robust trends and manage your trades with unparalleled clarity.
The Power of Multi-Factor Confluence: Beyond Simple Averages
In the unpredictable world of financial markets, true strength or weakness is rarely an isolated event. It's the harmonious alignment of multiple technical factors that signals a high-conviction move. While our original "All SMAs Bullish/Bearish Screener" intelligently identified stocks where price was consistently above or below a full spectrum of Simple Moving Averages (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200), this Enhanced version takes it a crucial step further.
We've integrated a powerful three-pronged confirmation system to filter out weaker signals and highlight only the most compelling setups:
Momentum (Rate of Change - ROC): A strong trend isn't just about price direction; it's about the speed and intensity of that movement. Positive momentum confirms that buyers are still aggressively pushing price higher (for bullish signals), while negative momentum validates selling pressure (for bearish signals).
Volume: No trend is truly trustworthy without the backing of smart money. Above-average volume accompanying an "All SMAs" alignment signifies strong institutional participation and conviction behind the move. It separates genuine trend starts from speculative whims.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): This versatile oscillator ensures the trend isn't just "there," but that it's developing healthily. We use RSI to confirm a bullish bias (above 50) or a bearish bias (below 50), adding another layer of confidence to the direction.
When the price aligns above ALL six critical SMAs, and is simultaneously confirmed by robust positive momentum, healthy volume, and a bullish RSI bias, you have an exceptionally strong "STRONGLY BULLISH" signal. This confluence often precedes sustained upward moves, signaling prime accumulation phases. Conversely, a "STRONGLY BEARISH" signal, where price is below ALL SMAs with negative momentum, confirming volume, and a bearish RSI bias, indicates powerful distribution and potential for significant downside.
How to Use This Enhanced Screener:
Add to Chart: Go to TradingView's Pine Editor, paste the script, and click "Add to Chart."
Customize Parameters: Fine-tune the lengths of your SMAs, RSI, Momentum, and Volume averages via the indicator's settings. Experiment to find what best suits your trading style and the assets you trade.
Choose Your Timeframe Wisely:
Daily (1D) and 4-Hour (240 min) are highly recommended. These timeframes cut through intraday noise and provide more reliable, actionable signals for swing and position trading.
Shorter timeframes (e.g., 15min, 60min) can be used by advanced day traders for very short-term entries, but be aware of increased volatility and noise.
Visual Confirmation:
Green/Red Triangles: Appear on your chart, indicating confirmed bullish or bearish signals.
Background Color: The chart background will subtly turn lime green for "STRONGLY BULLISH" and red for "STRONGLY BEARISH" conditions.
On-Chart Status Table: A clear table displays the current signal status ("STRONGLY BULLISH/BEARISH," or "SMAs Mixed") for immediate feedback.
Set Up Alerts (Your Primary Screener Tool): This is the game-changer! Create custom alerts on TradingView based on the "Confirmed Bullish Trade" and "Confirmed Bearish Trade" conditions. Receive instant notifications (email, pop-up, mobile) for any stock in your watchlist that meets these stringent criteria. This allows you to scan the entire market effortlessly and act decisively.
Strategic Stop-Loss Placement: The Trader's Lifeline
Even the most robust signals can fail. Protecting your capital is paramount. For this trend-following strategy, your stop-loss should be placed where the underlying trend structure is broken.
For a "STRONGLY BULLISH" Trade: Place your stop-loss just below the most recent significant swing low (higher low). This is the last point where buyers stepped in to support the price. If price breaks below this, your bullish thesis is invalidated.
For a "STRONGLY BEARISH" Trade: Place your stop-loss just above the most recent significant swing high (lower high). If price breaks above this, your bearish thesis is invalidated.
Alternatively, consider placing your stop-loss just below the 20-period SMA (for bullish trades) or above the 20-period SMA (for bearish trades). A significant close beyond this intermediate-term average often indicates a critical shift in momentum. Always ensure your chosen stop-loss adheres to your pre-defined risk per trade (e.g., 1-2% of capital).
Disciplined Profit Booking: Maximizing Gains
Just as important as knowing when you're wrong is knowing when to take profits.
Trailing Stop-Loss: As your trade moves into profit, trail your stop-loss upwards (for longs) or downwards (for shorts). You can trail it using:
Previous Swing Lows/Highs: Move your stop to just below each new higher low (for longs) or just above each new lower high (for shorts).
A Moving Average (e.g., 10-period or 20-period SMA): If price closes below your chosen trailing SMA, exit. This allows you to ride the trend while protecting accumulated profits.
Target Levels: Identify potential resistance levels (for longs) or support levels (for shorts) using pivot points, previous highs/lows, or Fibonacci extensions. Consider taking partial profits at these levels and letting the rest run with a trailing stop.
Loss of Confluence: If the "STRONGLY BULLISH/BEARISH" condition ceases to be met (e.g., RSI crosses below 50, or volume drops significantly), this can be a signal to reduce or exit your position, even if your stop-loss hasn't been hit.
The "All SMAs Bullish/Bearish Screener Enhanced" is your comprehensive partner in navigating the markets. By combining robust trend identification with critical confirmation signals and disciplined risk management, you're equipped to make smarter, more confident trading decisions. Add it to your favorites and unlock a new level of precision in your trading journey!
#PineScript #TradingView #SMA #MovingAverage #TrendFollowing #StockScreener #TechnicalAnalysis #Bullish #Bearish #QQQ #Momentum #Volume #RSI #SPY #TradingStrategy #Enhanced #Signals #Analysis #DayTrading #SwingTrading
Rounded Forex Levels: Big-Figure, Mid-Figure, 80-20 levels, BFRNSimple indicator to show Rounded levels in typical Forex pairs: Big figure, Mid-figure, 80-20 Insitutional Levels, 10pip levels, 5pip levels
Wrote this indicator because other ones out there seem to clutter the chart. This is simple, low-clutter and can be set by user to have arbitrary start and end points for the lines.
I wanted the ability for lines to plot discreetly to the right hand side of price as in the chart above, since in my opinion, these are only of secondary consideration to a trader, an extra confirmation/confluence to an existing idea.
//Purpose & Usage:
-Big-figure levels (100pips) & Mid-figure levels (50pips) will have a senstitivity to price, that can be an additional tool when looking for confluence for a target or an entry.
-As well as BF levels and MF levels; Institutional levels (20pips below and 20 pips above a Big Figure level) and standard 10pip or 5pip levels, can be useful in the right context (i.e added confirmation that of a minor sweep target; added conviction in an idea if the level aligns with another seperately derived level).
//User inputs:
-Toggle on/off each of the types of level.
-Line spacing: choose pip spacing of lines .
-Number of lines above/below (i.e. setting of 5 will be 11 lines. One central, 5 above, 5 below).
-Formatting: for each class of lines, code by color, style and width (as per the example chart below).
-Line start offset and line end offset: bars forward/back for each of start point and end point. So lines could be spread right across chart; or neatly pushed to the far right or left of the chart.
//Notes:
-Designed for typical Forex pairs with units close to 1.0 (like Eur/Usd, Usd/Cad, Aud/Usd, Gbp/Usd, Eur/Gbp, Nzd/Usd).
-Lines are based from the rounded close of the previous bar, Updating (if applicable) on each new bar.
Demo Plotting levels in the past; Dialog box example display:
FVG 9:31–10:00 AM ETFVG 9:31–10:00 AM ET - Script Description
What This Script Does
This indicator finds **Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)** that form during the first 29 minutes of the U.S. stock market (9:31 AM to 10:00 AM Eastern Time). A Fair Value Gap is a price imbalance where there's a gap between candles that often becomes an important support or resistance level.
Key Features:
- **Time Window**: Only looks for FVGs between 9:31-10:00 AM ET (most important opening period)
- **One Per Day**: Finds only the first FVG that forms in this time window each day
- **Visual Display**: Draws a purple box around the gap with a clear "FVG" label
- **Price Tracking**: Monitors when price comes back to test the gap level
- **Alert System**: Sends notifications when price returns to the FVG zone
How FVGs Are Detected:
- **Bullish FVG**: When there's a gap up (low of middle candle is above high of 3rd candle back)
- **Bearish FVG**: When there's a gap down (high of middle candle is below low of 3rd candle back)
The 9:31-10:00 AM window is chosen because this is when institutions and algorithms create their biggest price moves right after market open, making these gaps very reliable.
Customization Options
User Settings
Extend FVG Box (Bars)
- **What it does**: Makes the purple box longer to the right
- **Default**: 0 (box ends right after the gap forms)
- **Options**: Any number from 0 to 100+
- **When to use**:
- Keep at 0 for clean historical view
- Set to 10-20 to track the gap during the current session
- Set higher for longer reference
Code Settings (Can Be Changed)
Time Window
- **Start**: 9:31 AM Eastern Time
- **End**: 10:00 AM Eastern Time
- **Can modify**: Change the hour/minute numbers in the code
Visual Style
- **Color**: Purple with see-through background
- **Label**: Shows "FVG" text in white
- **Can modify**: Change colors and transparency in the code
How to Use:
Setup
Chart Settings
1. Use 1-minute, 5-minute, or 15-minute charts (works best on these timeframes)
2. Apply to liquid markets like ES, NQ, major stocks, or forex pairs
3. Set the "Extend FVG Box" to your preference (start with 0 or 10)
What You'll See
- A purple box appears when an FVG forms during 9:31-10:00 AM
- Box shows the exact price levels of the gap
- "FVG" label appears on the box
- Only one FVG per day will be marked
Trading Strategies
Basic FVG Trading
1. **Wait for Formation**: Let the purple box appear during 9:31-10:00 AM
2. **Watch Price Movement**: See if price moves away from the gap
3. **Enter on Retest**: When price comes back to the purple box area, consider entering
4. **Trade Direction**:
- Bullish FVG = look for long opportunities when price retests
- Bearish FVG = look for short opportunities when price retests
Entry Methods
- **Bounce Play**: Enter when price touches the FVG box and bounces away
- **Break Play**: Enter if price strongly breaks through the FVG box
- **Rejection Play**: Enter opposite direction if price gets rejected at the FVG
Risk Management
Stop Losses
- Place stops just outside the FVG box (a few ticks beyond the gap)
- If trading a bounce, stop goes on opposite side of the gap
- If trading a break, stop goes back inside the gap
Position Sizing
- Start small until you understand how FVGs work in your market
- Bigger gaps = smaller position size (more risk)
- Smaller gaps = can use larger position size
Profit Targets
- Take profits at obvious levels like round numbers, previous highs/lows
- Consider taking half profits at 1:1 risk/reward ratio
- Let some position run if the move is strong
Best Practices
When It Works Best
- High-volume stocks and futures (ES, NQ work great)
- Normal market days without major news during the 9:31-10:00 window
- When there's clear institutional activity in the opening period
When to Be Careful
- Low-volume stocks or markets
- Major economic news releases during the time window
- Market holidays when volume is low
- Very choppy or sideways days
Alert Usage
- The script will alert you when price comes back to test the FVG
- Don't trade the alert blindly - always check the current market situation
- Use the alert as a heads-up to start watching the setup more closely
Tips for Success
- The earlier the FVG forms in the 9:31-10:00 window, often the more significant it is
- FVGs that form with high volume are usually more reliable
- Always consider the overall market direction - don't fight the main trend
- Practice on paper first to understand how FVGs behave in your chosen market
🔗 Works Best With:
✅ Liquidity Levels — Smart Swing Lows: Spot key structural lows that can fuel stop hunts and reversals.
✅ ICT Turtle Soup — Liquidity Reversal: Add a classic reversal pattern to your toolkit to catch fakeouts cleanly.
✅ ICT SMC Liquidity Grabs and OBs- Liquidity Grabs, Order Block Zones, and Fibonacci OTE Levels, allowing traders to identify institutional entry models with clean, rule-based visual signals.
This script is most valuable for day traders who want to catch institutional moves right after market open, but it can also help swing traders identify important intraday levels.
✅ ICT Macro Zones (Grey Box Version)- It tracks real-time highs and lows for each Silver Bullet session.
✅ Weekly Opening Gap (cryptonnnite)
Luxy trend & Momentum Indicators Suit V2Luxy Trend & Momentum Indicator Suite V2
The Luxy Trend & Momentum Suite V2 is a multi-purpose technical analysis tool designed to help traders quickly identify high-probability trend-following and momentum-based entries across timeframes.
This tool combines the most battle-tested market filters (EMAs, VWAP, MACD, ZLSMA, Supertrend, UT Bot, Volume/ADX/RSI filters) into a unified signal framework — backed by an optional Bias Table that displays alignment across methods and timeframes.
BACKGROUND — ABOUT THIS METHOD
This Indicators Suite is based on momentum-trend alignment , a trading methodology that:
* Confirms trend structure using moving averages (EMA crossovers & price vs EMA-200),
* Validates trend strength using MACD separation, volume pressure, and ADX confirmation,
* Confirms timing using momentum oscillators (RSI pullbacks), VWAP positioning, and trend filters,
* Optionally delays entries using the UT Bot trailing confirmation or Supertrend .
It's a multi-layered filtering helps reduce false signals, especially in choppy conditions.
USAGE
This indicator is best suited for:
Intraday trend trading (scalping or day trading),
Swing trading based on HTF confirmation (1D/1W),
Combining bias + technical signal + volume + price context for cleaner entries.
It is especially powerful on assets with well-defined structure (e.g., crypto, indices, high-volume stocks).
Signal Labels
The script plots `LONG` (green) or `SHORT` (red) labels when all your configured filters align.
✅ To use these labels effectively:
Only take LONG signals when the bias table shows green ("BULLISH"),
Only take SHORT when the bias table shows red ("BEARISH"),
Avoid signals on NEUTRAL bias (gray), or consider smaller positions.
Bias Table Panel
The indicator features a compact Bias summary table , showing the current directional bias from:
Timeframe trends (1H, 4H, 1D)
Indicator states (EMA cross, EMA200, VWAP, MACD, ZLSMA, UT Bot, Supertrend)
Each cell is color-coded:
🟢 Green = Bullish
🔴 Red = Bearish
⚪ Gray = Neutral
Trend Filters
These are the primary trend components:
EMA Short vs Long : Fast/Slow structure
EMA-200 : Long-term bias
ZLSMA : Zero-lag regression slope
Supertrend : Dynamic trendline with noise-filtering
UT Bot : ATR-based trailing signal with optional filters (swing, %change, delay)
Momentum & Entry Filters
The indicator offers several modular filters to refine entry signals:
✅ MACD Separation : Requires a minimum spread between MACD and Signal line (adjustable in ATR units).
✅ VWAP Filter : Confirms that price is above/below anchored VWAP.
✅ RSI Pullback Zone : Only triggers signals when RSI is between configured pullback ranges.
✅ Volume Strength : Only confirms signals when current volume is above SMA × factor (e.g. 1.2×).
✅ ADX/DI Filter : Enforces trend strength requirements based on ADX, DI+ and DI-.
RECOMMENDED WORKFLOWS
🔹 Intraday Trend Trading
Primary TF: "1H"
Confirmation: "4H"
Bias method: EMA(20/50) or ZLSMA
Lookback: 5 bars
VWAP: Session anchor
UT Bot: Enabled with 1.3 sensitivity, ATR=10
🔹 Swing Trading
Primary TF: "1D"
Confirmation: "1W"
Bias method: EMA(20/50) or MACD
Lookback: 10–20
VWAP: Weekly or Monthly
UT Bot: Disabled or conservative (1.7 key, ATR=14)
🔹 Position Trading
Primary: "1W"
Confirmation: "1M"
Bias method: EMA(50/200)
Filters: Strong MACD + Volume + ADX
UT: Disabled
SETTINGS
You can customize:
All EMA lengths (short, long, very long)
MACD periods and buffer thresholds
VWAP anchor and bands mode (Std Dev or %)
ZLSMA length and offset
UT Bot sensitivity, ATR, and filters
Supertrend ATR logic and neutral bars
Volume, ADX, RSI, and Donchian breakouts
Table text size, position, and visibility
Each input includes tooltips with suggested ranges and explanations.
🔶 LIMITATIONS
This is an **indicator**, not a strategy. It does **not place orders**.
UT Bot and Bias alignment work better on assets with structure and volume.
Repainting is avoided by using bar close logic where possible.
Corporate-event VWAPs (Earnings, Dividends) depend on data availability.
Always backtest , adjust filters per asset, and confirm entries with price action and context.
📧 Feedback & improvement requests:
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
