Crypto Flow Index (CFI) - RS vs BTC/ETH ---
Crypto Flow Index, CFI
Crypto Flow Index, CFI, measures relative strength between an asset and Bitcoin or Ethereum.
You use CFI to judge whether capital favors your asset or the benchmark.
CFI does not give entry or exit signals.
You use CFI as a bias and context tool.
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What CFI measures
Relative strength money flow on the BASE/BTC or BASE/ETH pair.
Volume weighted pressure, not price alone.
Momentum blended into flow to smooth rotations.
Optional USD trend filter using fast and slow EMAs.
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How to read CFI
Above 50 means relative strength favors the asset.
Below 50 means relative strength favors BTC or ETH.
Rising CFI shows strengthening relative demand.
Falling CFI shows weakening relative demand.
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Histogram
Green bars show positive relative flow.
Red bars show negative relative flow.
Larger bars signal stronger pressure.
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Bias ribbon
Green ribbon shows bullish relative bias.
Red ribbon shows bearish relative bias.
Gray ribbon shows transition or balance.
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How to use CFI
Favor long trades when CFI stays above 50.
Avoid longs when price rises but CFI falls.
Spot rotations before price reacts.
Combine with structure, entries, and risk rules.
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Important limits
CFI compares assets only to BTC or ETH.
CFI does not represent the entire crypto market.
USD price and relative strength often diverge.
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Core question CFI answers
Is your asset gaining or losing strength versus Bitcoin or Ethereum.
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Indikatoren und Strategien
Relative Strength vs S&P 500 (SPX/ES) Relative Strength vs S&P 500
This indicator measures the relative performance of an asset compared to the S&P 500, helping traders and investors identify whether an asset is outperforming or underperforming the broader market.
The calculation is based on a price ratio between the selected asset and the S&P 500, optionally normalized to a base value (100) for easier interpretation.
How to read it:
Above the baseline (100) → the asset is outperforming the S&P 500
Below the baseline (100) → the asset is underperforming the S&P 500
Rising line → strengthening relative performance
Falling line → weakening relative performance
Why it’s useful:
Helps focus on market leaders, not just assets that “look cheap”
Filters trades and investments in the direction of relative strength
Useful for swing trading, long-term investing, and portfolio allocation
Widely used in institutional and professional asset management
This indicator is best used as a trend and selection filter, in combination with technical setups (support/resistance, VWAP, structure).
Strategy-Based Breakout Backtest by AlturoiThis educational strategy is designed to help active traders learn how to turn trading ideas into data-driven decisions by testing strategies against historical price action before risking real capital.
The script walks through the step-by-step backtesting workflow on TradingView, showing how strategy logic, entries, exits, and risk rules translate into measurable performance metrics such as win rate, drawdown, and expectancy.
What this script helps you learn:
How to backtest on TradingView using Pine Script strategies
How the Strategy Tester calculates performance results
How to interpret win rate, drawdowns, and consistency
How to validate breakout and support/resistance concepts
How to identify structural edge — or flaws — before going live
This is not a signal service or financial advice. It is an educational framework meant to help traders understand proper backtesting techniques and avoid common mistakes when evaluating trading strategies.
Use this script as a learning template to experiment, modify logic, and improve your understanding of how professional backtesting on TradingView works.
SETUP XANDAO ETFEste setap é usado para operar nos futuros, usamos essas métricas para poder achar entradas
50SMA bounceScans stocks that closed above Weekly 10SMA and previous week closing below the weekly 10SMA
XAU Seasonality + Setup Quality + Month Strength | WarRoomXYZXAU Seasonality Engine is a technical analysis indicator developed for the study of recurring, calendar-based behavior on XAUUSD (Gold).
The tool blends month-of-year seasonality statistics with higher-timeframe context and a setup-quality gate to help users observe when market conditions historically lean strong, weak, or neutral — and how strict trade selection should be during each regime.
Indicator Concept
An indicator for XAUUSD that combines:
1. Seasonality Regime (Month-of-Year Bias)
► Classifies the current month as Strong / Weak / Neutral based on either:
• Preset months (user-defined)
or
• Auto mode (computed from historical monthly performance)
► Strong months suggest a bullish tailwind (not a signal).
► Weak months suggest headwind / caution and require stricter setup quality.
2. Monthly Performance Engine (Under the Hood)
► Uses the symbol’s monthly timeframe data to compute, per calendar month:
• Average monthly return (%)
• Win rate (%) — how often that month closes positive
• Month Strength Score (0–100) — a blended score derived from performance data
► The score is designed to provide a relative strength snapshot of seasonality by month.
3. Month Strength Histogram
► Plots a histogram (0–100) of the current month’s strength score.
• Higher bars = historically stronger month tendency
• Lower bars = historically weaker month tendency
► Optional horizontal reference lines mark “strong” and “weak” zones to make regimes obvious at a glance.
4. Setup Quality Meter (Confluence Filter)
► The indicator calculates a Setup Quality Score (0–100) using market structure and momentum components, such as:
• EMA trend alignment
• Momentum confirmation (EMA fast vs slow)
• Structure break confirmation (BOS)
• Liquidity sweep behavior
• Candle confirmation logic
► This score is intended as a trade-selectivity filter , not a trade executor.
5. Adaptive Rules for Weak Months (Strict Mode)
► When the indicator detects a weak seasonal regime, conditions automatically tighten:
• The A+ threshold increases (adaptive thresholding)
• Optional rule: Weak months require BOS + Sweep + FVG simultaneously before any A+ condition is considered valid
This forces the user into “higher-quality-only” behavior during historically weaker seasonal periods.
🔹1 Visual Components Included
• Seasonality regime label (Strong / Weak / Neutral)
• Optional background shading based on regime
• Month Strength Score histogram (0–100)
• Current month stats: Avg return + win rate
• Setup Quality Meter value (0–100)
• Adaptive A+ threshold display
• Weak-month confluence gate status (BOS / Sweep / FVG pass/fail)
• Optional alerts when strict criteria are met
➣What Means in the XAU Indicator
🔹 Definition (in THIS indicator)
Win Rate = the percentage of historical months that closed positive for the same calendar month.
It is NOT:
trade win rate ❌
signal accuracy ❌
It is a s tatistical seasonality metric .
How It’s Calculated
For each calendar month (January, February, etc.), the indicator:
1.Looks at historical monthly candles (Monthly timeframe).
2. Counts how many times that month:
•Closed higher than it opened (or higher than previous month close).
3. Divides:
Number of positive months
÷
Total number of observed months
× 100
Example: September
If over the last 20 years:
September closed green 14 times
September closed red 6 times
Then:
Win Rate = (14 / 20) × 100 = 70%
That’s what you see as in the dashboard.
What the Win Rate Is Used For
1️⃣ Part of the Month Strength Score
The indicator blends:
•Average Monthly Return (%) → measures magnitude
•Win Rate (%) → measures consistency
Combined into:
Month Strength Score (0–100)
This avoids a common trap:
•A month with 1 huge rally but many losses ≠ reliable
•A month with steady positive closes = higher quality environment
What Win Rate Tells You
High Win Rate (e.g. 65–75%)
•Gold more often closes higher in this month
•Continuation is statistically more likely
•Pullbacks are more likely to resolve in trend direction
Low Win Rate (e.g. 35–45%)
•Gold more often fails to close higher
•More chop, deeper retracements, false breakouts
•Continuation trades statistically struggle
What It Does NOT Tell You
🚫 It does NOT mean:
•“You will win 70% of your trades”
•“Every setup in this month works”
•“Direction is guaranteed”
Seasonality is context, not prediction.
Why This Is Powerful When Combined With Your System
On its own, win rate is just data.
But in your indicator, it’s used to:
•🔒 Raise the A+ threshold in weak months
•🧠 Force BOS + Sweep + FVG confluence
•❌ Block marginal setups automatically
So instead of guessing:
-“Why is gold so choppy this month?”
You know:
-“This month historically underperforms SO I must be stricter.”
➣What Means in the XAU Seasonality Indicator
🔹 Definition (in THIS indicator)
Avg Monthly Return = the average percentage gain or loss of XAUUSD for a specific calendar month, calculated across many years.
It measures magnitude , not frequency.
It is NOT:
•trade profit ❌
•expected return for the next month ❌
•guaranteed performance ❌
It is a historical seasonality tendency.
How It’s Calculated
For each calendar month (January, February, etc.), the indicator:
1.Takes every historical occurrence of that month.
2.Calculates the percentage change of the monthly candle:
(Monthly Close − Previous Monthly Close)
÷ Previous Monthly Close × 100
3. Adds all those percentage changes together.
4. Divides by the total number of observations.
Example: September
Assume over 20 years:
+2.4%, +1.1%, −0.6%, +3.0%, +1.8%, ...
If the sum of all September returns = +28% across 20 years:
Avg Monthly Return = +1.40%
That’s the number displayed in the indicator.
What Avg Monthly Return Is Used For
1️⃣ Measuring Strength of Movement
•Win Rate → “How often does it close green?”
•Avg Monthly Return → “How big are the moves when it works?”
Both are needed.
A month can:
•Win often but move very little
•Move a lot but only occasionally
The indicator combines both to avoid misleading conclusions.
How to Interpret Avg Monthly Return
Positive Avg Return (e.g. +0.8% to +2.0%)
•Gold tends to expand during this month
•Continuation phases are more likely
•Pullbacks are often absorbed
Near-Zero Avg Return (e.g. −0.2% to +0.2%)
•Market is statistically balanced
•Expect chop, rotations, false breaks
•Continuation is less reliable
Negative Avg Return (e.g. −0.5% or worse)
•Downward pressure or heavy mean reversion
•Rallies often fade
•Risk of aggressive stop hunts
What Avg Monthly Return Does NOT Mean
🚫 It does NOT mean:
•“Price will move +1.4% this month”
•“You should buy because the number is positive”
•“This is a guaranteed edge”
It describes historical behavior, not future certainty.
Why Avg Monthly Return Matters More Than People Think
Two months can have the same win rate but behave very differently:
Example:
Month Win Rate Avg Return Reality
Month A 65% +0.2% Small, choppy wins
Month B 55% +1.6% Fewer wins, but strong expansions
Your indicator would rank Month B as stronger, which is correct for continuation-based strategies.
How It Feeds the Month Strength Score
The indicator blends:
•60% Avg Monthly Return (normalized)
•40% Win Rate
This means:
•Big moves matter more than small consistency
•But consistency still matters enough to prevent distortion
Result:
Month Strength Score (0–100)
Which is then used to:
•tighten or relax A+ thresholds
•activate weak-month strict rules
•control trade frequency
🔹2. Intended Use
The indicator is designed as a discretionary analysis tool to support study of:
• seasonal bias and calendar tendencies
• relative strength/weakness across months
• how strict trade selection should be across different regimes
• confluence behavior when seasonal conditions are unfavorable
The tool does not generate forecasts, does not guarantee outcomes, and should not be relied upon as a stand-alone decision mechanism.
🔹3.How to Use XAU Seasonality Engine
Recommended charts: XAUUSD, intraday (5m–15m) with a HTF context (1H–4H).
1. Identify the Seasonal Regime
• Strong month → you can allow more continuation bias (still require structure).
• Neutral month → trade normally, standard criteria.
• Weak month → tighten selection, demand clean A+ conditions only.
2. Read the Month Strength Histogram
• If the score is high (e.g., 70+), the month has historically shown stronger tendency.
• If the score is low (e.g., 40 and below), expect slower conditions, deeper pullbacks, or more chop — and reduce marginal trades.
3. Use the Setup Quality Meter as the Gate
► In normal/strong months:
• A+ threshold is moderate (e.g., 70)
► In weak months:
• A+ threshold is higher (e.g., 80+)
• Optional strict mode: must also pass BOS + Sweep + FVG alignment
4. Example Trade Logic (Framework, Not Signals)
► Bullish framework in a Strong Month:
• Seasonal regime = Strong (tailwind)
• Structure supports bullish continuation (trend alignment)
• Sweep occurs into demand / liquidity grab
• Setup Quality reaches A+ threshold
• Entry: confirmation candle or retrace to key level
• SL: beyond sweep low / invalidation
• TP: nearest liquidity / prior highs / HTF level
► Weak Month rule-set (Strict Mode):
• Seasonal regime = Weak (headwind)
• Only consider trades if:
✅ BOS confirms direction
✅ Sweep occurs and rejects cleanly
✅ FVG exists recently (or is mitigated if you choose that model)
✅ Setup Quality exceeds the elevated adaptive threshold
If any one is missing → no trade
This is not meant to “predict” gold — it’s meant to enforce discipline when seasonality historically underperforms.
🔹4.Limitations and User Responsibility
► The indicator does not represent financial advice or imply performance expectations.
► Seasonality is statistical tendency, not certainty — macro conditions can override it.
► Results vary by broker feed, timeframe, and settings.
► Users should test thoroughly in simulation before applying to live markets.
► All trading decisions, risk management, and execution remain solely the responsibility of the user.
🔹5. Alerts
Optional alerts can notify when:
• a new month begins and the seasonal regime changes
• A+ criteria are met
• weak-month strict conditions pass (BOS + Sweep + FVG)
Alerts are informational only and do not constitute actionable recommendations.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for informational and educational purposes only . It does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice, and it does not guarantee profits or future performance. All decisions made based on this script are solely the responsibility of the user.
This script does not execute trades, manage risk, or replace the need for trader discretion. Market behavior can change quickly, and past behavior detected by the script does not ensure similar future outcomes.
Users should test the script on demo or simulation environments before applying it to live markets and must maintain full responsibility for their own risk management, position sizing, and trade execution.
Trading involves risk, and losses can exceed deposits. By using this script, you acknowledge that you understand and accept all associated risks.
Print Bar DataThis script print out the recent bar data. You can configure the position, bar numbers, of the data
ProTradersNetwork-inefficiencyInefficiency Candles Colored, No matter the timeframe, ensures clear visibility of which candles had the most momentum.
Daily Candle Bias Backtesting Stats @MaxMaserati This indicator, is a powerful backtesting and probability tool designed to quantify the "follow-through" of specific candle types across different market sessions.
It identifies specific price action setups and tracks whether price hits a "Target" (continuation) or an "Invalidation" (reversal) first, providing real-time win rates for your favorite sessions.
The Candle Bias Stats indicator automatically categorizes every candle based on the MMM candle bias and tracks their historical success rate. It calculates how often a candle's high/low is broken before its opposite end is touched. By breaking this data down into sessions (Asian, London, NY), it identifies high-probability "time-of-day" windows where specific price action setups are most reliable.
MMM CANDLE LOGIC
Bullish Expansion & Breakout Signatures
Bullish Body Close Plus (BuBC Plus): Represents strong bullish momentum where price closes above the previous high and near its own top, signaling that buyers are in complete control.
Bullish Body Close Minus (BuBC Minus): Indicates weak bullish momentum; while the price closes above the previous high, a long top wick shows sellers pushed back, suggesting a potential retest of the previous high.
Bearish Expansion & Breakout Signatures
Bearish Body Close Plus (BeBC Plus): A very strong bearish signal where price closes below the previous low and near its own bottom, indicating sellers are dominant.
Bearish Body Close Minus (BeBC Minus): Signifies weak bearish momentum; the price breaks the previous low but finishes with a long bottom wick as buyers push back, often leading to a retest of the old ceiling.
Bullish Reversal & Trap Signatures (Affinity)
Bullish Affinity Plus (BuAF Plus): A strong bullish reversal where a new low is made, but sellers hit a wall and get trapped, causing price to finish near its top with a long bottom wick.
Bullish Affinity Minus (BuAF Minus): A weak bullish bounce where a new low is made and price finishes back inside the previous range, but buyers lack the energy for a significant move.
Bearish Reversal & Trap Signatures (Affinity)
Bearish Affinity Plus (BeAF Plus): A strong bearish reversal; buyers are trapped after making a new high, and price finishes near its bottom with a long top wick.
Bearish Affinity Minus (BeAF Minus): A weak bearish drop where sellers stop the rise but lack the energy to push price significantly lower.
Neutral & Volatility Signatures
Close Inside Bullish (CI•BuAF): Bullish neutral state where price stays inside the previous candle’s range but finishes in the top half, indicating buyers are slightly more active.
Close Inside Bearish (CI•BeAF): Bearish neutral state where price remains inside the previous box and finishes in the bottom half.
Seek & Destroy Bullish (S&D•BuAF): Bullish volatility characterized by price moving above and below the previous candle before buyers win the battle and close price near the top.
Seek & Destroy Bearish (S&D•BeAF): Bearish volatility where sellers win a high-chaos battle, closing price near the bottom after sweeping both sides of the previous candle.
H4 CANDLE EXAMPLE
Deep Dive: Analysis of the 4H Statistics
The image presents a comprehensive backtest of 4,999 total candles from September 2022 to December 2025. Here is the breakdown of what the interface is telling us:
1. The Strategy: Target vs. Invalidation
The indicator tracks BuBC (Bullish Body Close) and BeBC (Bearish Body Close).
The Target: For a Bullish candle, the target is the High. For a Bearish candle, it is the Low.
The Invalidation: The opposite end of the candle (the Low for Bullish, the High for Bearish).
The Goal: To see which level is touched first in the subsequent bars.
2. Global Performance (The Top Right Table)
Looking at the BuBC (1402 samples) section:
Target First (67.8%): In nearly 7 out of 10 cases, once a 4H candle closes "bullish" (breaking the previous high), the price continues higher to break its own high before it ever returns to take out its own low.
Both Hit (17.7%): This is a critical metric. It represents "Stop Runs" or "Wicks" where price hits the target but also hits the invalidation within the same tracking period.
Efficiency (1.3 Bars): This tells us the "follow-through" is almost immediate. If the trade doesn't work within 1 or 2 candles, the statistical edge drops off significantly.
3. The Session Breakdown (The Bottom Left Table)
This is where the "Edge" is found. Not all hours of the day are created equal.
Asian Late (02:00-06:00) – The "Star" Performer: With a 72.9% Target rate, this is labeled "BEST." It has the lowest "Both%" (6.5%), meaning moves during these hours are incredibly "clean." If a setup forms here, price usually moves directly to the target without looking back.
London Open & Overlap (06:00-14:00): These sessions maintain a high win rate (approx. 70%). This suggests that the European session provides reliable trend continuation for the S&P 500.
NY Session (14:00-18:00) – The "Trap" Zone: This is labeled "WORST" for a reason. While the win rate is basically a coin flip (49.6%), the Both% spikes to 36.7%. This means that even if you are right about the direction, the market is highly likely to "sweep" your stop loss before going to the target. It is the most volatile and "fake-out" prone time for this specific setup.
Summary of the Data
The statistics show that the S&P 500 4H Candle Bias is a highly reliable trend-following indicator, provided you trade it at the right time.
The data suggests a clear three-step logic:
Directional Edge: Both Bullish and Bearish body closes have a natural ~67% probability of continuation.
Timing is Everything: Trading during the Late Asian and London sessions increases your probability of success to over 70% with very low risk of a "fake-out."
Risk Warning: Avoid "Body Close" breakout strategies during the NY Mid-day (14:00-18:00). The statistics prove that this window is dominated by "Seek and Destroy" price action, where price is mathematically likely to hit both your target and your stop, usually hitting the stop first.
Highs & LowsIntroduction: This indicator marks highs and lows from the previous New York, Asian, and London sessions, including the daily high and low. It is made to be as user friendly/adjustable as possible.
It was designed around trading during the New York morning session, using the 1 hour and 1 minute(or similar) timeframes in conjunction.
Settings: Common settings for the cleanest viewing are as follows:
1 Hour Chart Settings:
Box #3 "Label Vertical Offset" to "18".
Box #4 "Label X Offset" to "2".
1 Minute Chart Settings:
Box #3 "Label Vertical Offset" to "2".
Box #4 "Label X Offset" to "0".
Note: Adjusting text to the darkest "black" setting may provide the best contrast.
MSO - Market Stress Oscillator [WavesUnchained]MSO - Market Stress Oscillator
Bidirectional stress oscillator built on WVF + Z-score, with JMA/ADX filters, regime bias, and validated follow-through. Designed to expose downside panic vs upside euphoria and measure whether the market accepts or rejects each stress event.
Quick Setup
- Stress Color Mode : Intuitive (Downside=green, Upside=red) or Technical (classic colors).
CORE CONCEPT
- Downside stress : price flushes below WVF baseline (panic)
- Upside stress : price stretches above WVF baseline (euphoria)
- Stress is normalized via Z-score for cross-asset/timeframe robustness
ENGINE (BI-WVF + Z-SCORE)
- WVF Long and Short computed separately (panic vs euphoria)
- Z-score window normalizes extremes
- Thresholds are TF-aware (15m / 1h / 4h / D / W / M)
QUALITY FILTERS
- JMA trend filter (slope-based, low-lag)
- ADX minimum for trend strength
- Min Extreme Duration to avoid 1-bar noise
- Cooldown to prevent signal clustering
ACCEPT / REJECT LOGIC
- Events are evaluated after reactBars (forward follow-through)
- Accepted : follow-through >= minFollowATR
- Rejected : follow-through < minFollowATR
- Scores (0..1) optionally plotted as acceptance strength
BIAS / REGIME CONTEXT
- Bias line : zL - zS (who dominates)
- Bias band : regime threshold (only meaningful outside band)
- HTF Wind : higher-timeframe bias flip (JMA smoothed)
- Clarity Label : regime entry aligned with HTF + absBias threshold
VISUALIZATION
- Stress Lines : Red = downside stress (panic), Green = upside stress (euphoria)
- Bias Line : zL - zS (who dominates). Neutral inside band, colored outside.
- Bias Band : regime threshold. Fill shows when bias is usable.
- Zones : boxes at peak events (history preserved, FIFO capped)
- Chart Labels : DA/DR/UA/UR (or LA/LR/SA/SR) at peaks
- Lines : reaction window + peak level lines (FIFO capped)
STRESS COLOR MODE
- Intuitive : Downside stress = green, Upside stress = red (opportunity mapping)
- Technical : Downside stress = red, Upside stress = green (classic convention)
- This setting is visual only ; logic, bias, and signals are unchanged
HOW TO USE
1. Read the stress lines : red spikes = panic risk, green spikes = euphoria risk.
2. Check bias : outside the band = usable regime; inside = noise.
3. Use DA/DR/UA/UR :
- DA/UA = stress accepted (follow-through confirmed)
- DR/UR = stress rejected (weak follow-through)
4. Add HTF wind : prefer signals aligned with HTF bias.
5. Tune presets by TF; use manual TF override for testing.
PRESETS & UI
- Full TF preset table (15m / 1h / 4h / D / W / M)
- Manual TF override for testing
- Preset summary panel (optional)
LOGGING (CSV)
- Pivot and stress logs for validation
- Early/First-pivot classification options
- Label IDs included for chart-to-log tracing
BEST USE CASES
- Panic/euphoria detection with follow-through validation
- Regime-aware context (bias + HTF wind)
- Multi-timeframe stress mapping (15m to Weekly)
Version: 1.0.0
Author: WavesUnchained
Pine Script: v6
Educational use only. Test thoroughly before live trading.
Trend Dip-BuyerThis strategy is a simplified, high-probability Dip Buying System designed for active growth stocks. Instead of chasing breakouts at the top, it waits for the stock to take a "breather" (pullback) within an uptrend and buys the discount.
It combines a classic Trend Filter (50 EMA) with a sensitive Momentum Oscillator (RSI 2) to pinpoint the exact moment a pullback is likely to reverse back up.
How It Works:
1. The Trend Filter (50 EMA)
The strategy ONLY trades Long.
It requires the price to be above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (Blue Line). This ensures you are trading with the momentum of the market, not against it.
2. The Dip Signal (RSI 2)
It uses a fast 2-period RSI.
When RSI(2) drops below 50, it signals that the stock is temporarily "oversold" or resting. This is your cue that a discount entry is available.
3. Dynamic Exits
Profit Taking: The primary target is dynamic. The strategy looks to exit when RSI(2) spikes above 70, allowing you to capture the bulk of the momentum swing. (A fixed ATR target option is also included).
Safety: A 3x ATR Stop Loss protects the trade from sudden reversals.
✅ Simple Entry Checklist
Before taking a trade, ensure all 3 boxes are checked:
Trend Check: Is the current price ABOVE the Blue Line (50 EMA)?
Dip Check: Is the RSI (2) value BELOW 50?
Time Check: Is it past 12:00 PM? (Recommended for cleaner trends, but optional).
👉 If YES to all: Enter Long on the next candle open.
Best Settings (Customizable):
RSI Threshold: Default is 50 (Balanced). Lower to 30 for fewer, higher-quality trades.
Exit Method: "RSI > 70" is recommended for maximizing wins in strong trends.
Time Filter: "Trade > 12pm" is enabled by default to avoid morning volatility.
Session Opening Bar RangeSession Opening Bar Range (OBR) - Advanced Opening Range Indicator with Statistical Analysis
Overview
The Session First Bar Range (FBR) indicator is a comprehensive tool that captures and projects key levels based on the first bar of a user-defined trading session. Unlike traditional daily opening range indicators, this script allows traders to focus on specific session windows (New York RTH, London, Asia, etc.) and analyze price behavior relative to the initial momentum established in that session's opening bar.
What makes this indicator unique is its combination of three distinct projection methodologies: statistical analysis based on historical range data, Fibonacci extensions, and fixed-point rotation levels commonly used by institutional traders. To our knowledge, this is the only opening range indicator that incorporates statistical standard deviation levels calculated from historical first bar ranges, making it both a technical and probabilistic tool.
Core Concept
The opening range concept is based on the principle that the initial price action of a trading session often sets the tone for the remainder of that session.
Professional traders have long observed that:
The first bar's high and low act as key reference points
Price often respects or breaks these levels with significance
Expansion beyond the opening range tends to occur in measurable increments
This indicator takes these observations and enhances them with:
Historical probability analysis - "Based on the last 60 sessions, price typically extends X standard deviations beyond the opening range"
Proportional projections - Fibonacci-based extensions showing where measured moves typically target
Fixed-point rotations - Institutional rotation levels (e.g., 65 points for NQ, 15 points for ES)
How It Works
Session Detection & First Bar Capture
The indicator uses Pine Script's time() function with timezone support to precisely detect when a trading session begins. When the first bar of the selected timeframe occurs within the session window, the script captures:
High (H): The high of the first bar
Low (L): The low of the first bar
Mid (M): The midpoint (hl2) of the first bar
Critical Detail: These levels are fixed from the first bar only - they do not update as the session progresses. This differs from many "opening range" indicators that use a time period (e.g., first 30 minutes). Here, you select the bar timeframe (default 5-minute), and only that single first bar's range is captured.
Statistical Level Calculation
The indicator maintains a rolling array of the last N session's first bar ranges (default: 60 sessions). For each new session, it calculates:
Average Range: Mean of historical first bar ranges
Standard Deviation: Volatility of those ranges
Projection Levels: High/Low ± (Average Range + Std Dev × Multiplier)
This provides probability-based levels. For example, a +2σ level suggests: "Historically, price extending this far beyond the opening range is a 2-standard-deviation event (approximately 95th percentile)."
Fibonacci Extensions
Using the first bar range as the base unit (100%), the indicator projects Fibonacci levels:
100% extension: One full range above the high / below the low
1.618x extension: (Default) Golden ratio projection
2.618x, 3.618x extensions: Additional Fibonacci levels
Calculation: Range = H - L, then Target = H + (Range × Multiplier) for upside projections.
OR Rotation Levels
These are fixed-point increments from the first bar's high and low. Unlike percentage-based methods, rotations use absolute point values:
NQ traders often use 65-point increments
ES traders often use 15-point increments
Gold/bonds use different values
The indicator draws 5 levels above the high (R+1 through R+5) and 5 below the low (R-1 through R-5), each separated by your specified point increment.
Features:
Session Options
Pre-configured Sessions:
New York RTH (9:30am - 4:00pm)
New York Futures (8:00am - 5:00pm)
London (2:00am - 8:00am)
Asia (7:00pm - 2:00am)
Midnight to 5pm
ZB/Gold/Silver OR (8:20am - 4:00pm)
CL OR (9:00am - 4:00pm)
Custom Session: Define your own start/end times in HHMM format
Timezone Support: All sessions respect the selected timezone (default: America/New_York)
Customizable Timeframe
Select any timeframe for the first bar (1min, 5min, 15min, etc.)
Default: 5-minute bars
Important: This is the timeframe for the first bar capture, independent of your chart's timeframe
Display Options
Historical Ranges: Show/hide past session ranges (with configurable limit to manage performance)
Line Styles: Choose between Solid, Dashed, or Dotted for range lines and midline
Label Position: Left or Right side of range
Show Prices: Optionally display actual price values on labels
Custom Colors: Fully customizable colors for all components
Statistical Levels
Lookback Period: Number of historical sessions to analyze (default: 60)
Two Multiplier Levels: Default 1σ and 2σ, fully adjustable
Separate styling: Different line styles (dashed vs dotted) for each sigma level
Optional Labels: Show/hide sigma notation labels
Fibonacci Extensions
Four Extension Levels: 100%, 1.618x, 2.618x, 3.618x (all customizable)
Bidirectional: Projections both above and below the opening range
Optional Labels: Toggle percentage/multiplier labels
OR Rotation Levels
Configurable Increment: Set the point value for your instrument
Five Levels Each Direction: R±1 through R±5
Dynamic Labels: Show both rotation number and point value (e.g., "R+1 (65)")
Three Line Styles: Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
How to Use
Setup
Add the indicator to your chart
Select your trading session from the dropdown
Set the timeframe for first bar capture (typically 5-15 minutes)
Configure which projection methods you want to see (Statistical, Fibonacci, and/or Rotations)
For Day Traders
Scenario: Trading NQ during New York RTH
Session: Select "New York RTH (9:30am - 4:00pm)"
Timeframe: 5-minute (captures 9:30-9:35 bar)
Enable: OR Rotations with 65-point increments
Strategy:
Watch for acceptance/rejection at rotation levels
Use R+1/R-1 as initial profit targets
R+2/R-2 as extended targets
Statistical levels show when price is in "outlier" territory
and rotation levels
Performance Notes
The indicator limits objects to stay within TradingView's constraints (500 max)
If you enable all features, reduce "Maximum Historical Ranges" to prevent slowdown
Typical configuration: 10-20 historical ranges with all features enabled works well
Settings Guide
Session Settings
Session: Choose from pre-configured sessions or "Custom"
Custom Session Start/End: HHMM format (e.g., "0930" for 9:30am)
Timezone: Critical for accurate session detection
Opening Bar Format
Timeframe: The bar size for capturing the first bar's range
Show Midline: Toggle the mid-point line
Show Historical Ranges: Display previous sessions (recommended: leave ON)
Maximum Historical Ranges: Limit history to manage performance (1-500)
Range Style / MidLine Style: Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
Position: Label placement (Left or Right)
Show Prices: Include actual price values on labels
Statistical Levels
Lookback Periods: How many historical first bar ranges to analyze (default: 60)
Std Dev Multiplier 1/2: The sigma levels to project (default: 1.0 and 2.0)
All visual settings (colors, line width, label size)
Fibonacci Extensions
Show Fib Extensions: Enable/disable Fibonacci projections
Measured Move Extensions 1-4: The multipliers (default: 1.618, 2.618, 3.618, 4.618)
Visual customization options
OR Rotations
Rotation Increment: The point value for your instrument
NQ: 65 points
ES: 15 points
Adjust for other instruments based on their typical rotation behavior
Show Rotation Labels: Display level numbers and point values
Visual customization options
Use Cases
Gap Trading: When price gaps away from previous day's close, the first bar range shows the initial gap acceptance/rejection zone
Breakout Confirmation: Price breaking and holding above the first bar high with volume suggests trend day potential. Rotation levels provide measured targets.
Reversal Identification: Price reaching +2σ statistical level = rare event, potential exhaustion
Range Bound Days: Price oscillating between first bar high/low suggests range-bound session; trade reversals at extremes
Institutional Level Awareness: OR Rotations at 65 points (NQ) align with levels professional traders watch
Technical Notes
The indicator uses request.security() with lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on to ensure the first bar levels are captured correctly
All drawing objects (lines, labels, fills) are managed in arrays with automatic cleanup to prevent memory issues
The statistical calculations use array.avg() and array.stdev() for accurate probability estimates
Rotation levels use individual line variables (like Fibonacci) rather than loops for reliability
Summary
This indicator is original in its combination of three distinct methodologies for projecting levels from a session's opening range:
Statistical Analysis - No other opening range indicator (to our knowledge) calculates standard deviation projections from historical first bar ranges
Time-Based Session Flexibility - Most OR indicators use only daily or fixed time periods; this allows any custom session window
Multiple Projection Methods - Traders can use statistical, Fibonacci, AND rotation levels together or separately
BTC - Institutional Cost Corridor (Overlay)BTC - Institutional Cost Corridor | RM
Strategic Context
The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, 2024, signaled the beginning of the "Institutional Era." Since then, price discovery has shifted from being purely retail-driven to being heavily influenced by massive, off-chain equity flows.
The Institutional Cost Corridor is an approach for a quantitative tool designed to solve the problem of "Institutional Blindness" by mapping the aggregate cost basis of Wall Street's entry. It allows for the identification of structural "gravity zones" where institutional capital is most likely to move from a state of profit into a state of defense.
The Methodology: Data Selection & Weighting
To ensure the output is statistically significant, the data engine focuses exclusively on the "Big 3" liquidity providers: BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC), and Bitwise (BITB). These three funds represent over 80% of total Spot ETF liquidity. A weighted ratio is applied (prioritizing BlackRock) to reflect the reality that a dollar flowing into IBIT has a significantly higher impact on market structure than a dollar in smaller, fragmented funds. This ensures the indicator follows the actual mass of institutional capital.
Recalculating the Shadow: Nominal Price & AUM
A common point of confusion is that Bitcoin ETFs have a completely different nominal price than Bitcoin itself (e.g., an IBIT share may trade at $50 while BTC is at $100,000). To solve this, the script does not look at the dollar price of the shares. Instead, it uses Assets Under Management (AUM) and Relative Performance Mapping . By calculating the percentage growth of the funds' underlying value since inception and projecting that growth onto the Bitcoin price axis, the script "re-scales" the institutional entry levels. This allows us to see exactly where Wall Street is "underwater" on a standard Bitcoin chart.
The Mathematical Foundations: Genesis vs. Anchored
The indicator utilizes two distinct mathematical approaches to triangulate the "Truth" of institutional positioning. These are not arbitrary assumptions, but forward-mapped models verified against professional financial benchmarks.
1. Conservative Floor (Genesis Mode)
• The Logic: This model uses a Cumulative Inflow VWAP . It treats every dollar that has entered the ETFs since Day 1 as part of a single, massive ledger.
• Scientific Justification: This approach maps to the "Fortress Zone" of early, high-conviction capital. Historical AUM performance data suggests that the largest influx of structural capital occurred during the launch phase of 2024. This logic identifies the Ultimate Floor —the level where the entire ETF cohort would flip to a net loss. In late 2025 research (e.g., Glassnode "True Market Mean"), this model consistently aligns with the deepest structural support of the bull cycle.
2. Wall Street Entry (Anchored Mode)
• The Logic: This model utilize a Relative Performance Anchor . It synchronizes the Bitcoin price on Launch Day with the growth performance of the ETF fund shares.
• Scientific Justification: This approach identifies the "Active Participant Basis." It reflects the entry price for the capital that fueled the most recent expansion cycles. It maps directly to the "Active Investors' Realized Price" cited by institutional research firms, identifying the immediate psychological "pain threshold" for the current market majority.
3. Institutional Mean (Hybrid Mode)
• The Logic: A 50/50 mathematical blend of the Conservative Floor and the Wall Street Entry .
• Justification: This is the "Equilibrium Zone." It serves as a neutral baseline by balancing early-stage "Genesis" conviction with late-cycle volatility. It represents the median cost basis of all current institutional holders.
4. The Shadow Corridor (Full Range)
• The Logic: Visualizes the entire spread between the Conservative Floor and the Wall Street Entry.
• Justification: The "Structural Support Cloud." Instead of a single price, it defines a regime . As long as Bitcoin remains above this cloud, the institutional trend remains in an "Expansion Phase." A re-entry into this corridor suggests a transition from a trending market into a value-accumulation phase.
Tactical Playbook: Scenario Logic
The Shadow Corridor (Full Range) visualizes the area between these two models, creating an "Institutional War Zone."
• Active Support Test: When price tests the Wall Street Entry (upper boundary), it indicates the active institutional majority is at breakeven. Expect significant defensive buying (bids) as funds protect their yearly performance reports.
• Deep Value Regime: Trading inside the Corridor is defined as a "Value Regime." This is where institutional accumulation historically absorbs retail capitulation.
• The Premium Trap: When the distance between price and the Corridor exceeds 35-40%, the market is "speculatively overextended," signaling a high probability of mean-reversion.
• Macro Breakdown: A Weekly (1W) candle closing below the Conservative Floor (lower boundary) signals a structural trend shift, indicating the majority of ETF-era capital is officially in a drawdown.
Operational Recommendation Best viewed on the Daily (1D) timeframe for macro structural analysis, providing the most reliable signal for institutional defense zones.
Tags: bitcoin, btc, etf, blackrock, ibit, institutional, cost-basis, vwap, macro, cycle, realized-price, Rob Maths
High/Low Tracker ARDR/ADR V4High and lows in 2 timeframes
16:00 -> 03:55
19:30 -> 02:55
Toggle on/off of
- Auto extending untill 09:25
- Live updating during price action
Configure linestyles, box styles
It is now displaying correctly for both CL and ES
SB A / A++ ALERT ENGINE (Alerts Only)SB A / A++ Alert Engine
Session-Based Level Rejection Strategy (Automation-Ready)
Overview
The SB A / A++ Alert Engine is a rules-based TradingView indicator designed to identify high-probability institutional-style reversal trades using Stacey Burke–inspired concepts such as previous day levels, session structure, opening ranges, and round numbers.
This tool is alerts-only by design, making it ideal for:
TradingView alerts
Webhook automation
Telegram / Discord signal delivery
External trade execution systems
It does not repaint and evaluates signals on confirmed bar close only.
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Core Trading Idea
Price frequently reacts at important reference levels during active trading sessions.
This script looks for rejection + confirmation at those levels and grades setups based on confluence and candle quality.
Only A-grade and A++-grade setups are alerted.
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What the Script Detects
📌 Key Levels (Confluence Engine)
Previous Day High / Low
Initial Balance (Mon–Tue range, active Wed–Fri)
Session Opening Range (first hour of London / NY)
Round Numbers (configurable tick spacing)
Each level touched contributes to confluence — without double-counting the same zone.
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🕒 Session Control
Signals are only allowed during:
London Session
New York Session
Includes:
Session resets
Max alerts per session
Cooldown between signals
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🔎 Candle Confirmation
Valid signals require clear rejection behavior, such as:
Bullish / Bearish Engulfing candle
Strong Pin Bar (wick ≥ 2× body)
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🧠 Trade Grades
A Trade
Valid session
ATR percentile filter passed
≥ 1 level of confluence
Directional rejection
A++ Trade
All A-Trade rules
Strong confirmation candle (engulf or pin)
≥ 2 independent confluence zones
Grades are displayed visually and included in alert payloads.
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📊 Volatility Filter (ATR Percentile)
Instead of fixed ATR thresholds, the script uses an ATR percentile rank, ensuring trades only trigger when volatility is above normal for that market.
This adapts automatically across:
Forex
Indices
Futures
Crypto
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Visual Output
▲ Green / Lime triangles → LONG (A / A++)
▼ Orange / Red triangles → SHORT (A / A++)
Color intensity reflects trade grade
Optional session shading (if enabled)
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Alerts & Automation
All alerts are webhook-ready and structured for automation.
Each alert includes:
Symbol
Timeframe
Direction (LONG / SHORT)
Trade grade (A or A++)
Confluence count
Entry price (close of signal bar)
Designed to integrate with:
Telegram bots
Trade execution bridges
Risk management engines
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What This Script Is (and Is Not)
✅ IS
A high-quality signal engine
Non-repainting
Automation-friendly
Institutional level-based logic
❌ IS NOT
A scalping indicator
A prediction tool
A “trade every candle” system
This tool favors patience, structure, and quality over frequency.
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Recommended Usage
Timeframes: M5 – M15
Best markets: FX majors, indices, liquid crypto
Combine with your own execution, risk, and trade management rules
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⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always test on demo or paper trading before using live capital.
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PM/PW/PD/OVN/CD Highs & Lows with prices+ EMAsPM/PW/PD/OVN/CD Highs & Lows with prices
+
3 customizable EMAs (def 12/34/55)
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it draws out price levels to your liking, by ticks or points, how many ticks/points between levels, very customizable. it also has an info box showing how many ticks/points between levels as well as dollar amount for that level, and you can change contract size as well as micros or minis just to see if price moved that distance, what you can expect to make.
any feedback greatly appreciated.
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Separator lines for Hours/Days/Weeks/Months. customize as you please :)
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