Bull Trade Zone IndicatorThe BULL TRADE ZONE INDICATOR is a powerful trading tool designed to help traders identify optimal entry and exit points in the market. This script uses a combination of two Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and the Average True Range (ATR) to generate buy and sell signals, making it ideal for traders looking to enhance their trading strategy with precise and timely alerts.
Key Features:
Dynamic Buy and Sell Signals: The indicator generates buy signals when the 14 EMA crosses above the 150 EMA and the price is trading above the 150 EMA. Sell signals are generated when the 14 EMA crosses below the 150 EMA and the price is below the 150 EMA, providing clear guidance on potential market trends.
Built-In Stop-Loss Levels: Automatic stop-loss levels are calculated based on the ATR, helping traders manage risk effectively by setting realistic stop-loss points based on market volatility.
Minimal Chart Clutter: To maintain a clean and focused trading environment, the 14 EMA and 150 EMA values are privately used within the script without being visibly plotted on the chart, ensuring that the focus remains on actionable signals.
Clear Visual Alerts: Buy and sell signals are highlighted directly on the chart with intuitive labels, making it easy to spot trading opportunities at a glance.
Who Is This For?
This indicator is suitable for traders of all levels—whether you are a beginner looking for a straightforward trading tool or an experienced trader seeking to add an additional layer of confirmation to your strategy. The BULL TRADE ZONE INDICATOR helps you stay ahead of the market by precisely identifying key trading zones.
How to Use:
Add the indicator to your chart.
Monitor the buy and sell signals generated by the script.
Use the plotted stop-loss levels to manage your trades effectively.
Customize your trading strategy using the indicator’s signals to align with your risk appetite and market view.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is a technical analysis tool designed to assist with decision-making. It should be used alongside other analyses and strategies, not as the sole basis for trading decisions. Always perform your due diligence and risk management when trading.
Indikatoren und Strategien
TPS Short Strategy by Larry ConnersThe TPS Short strategy aims to capitalize on extreme overbought conditions in an ETF by employing a scaling-in approach when certain technical indicators signal potential reversals. The strategy is designed to short the ETF when it is deemed overextended, based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and moving averages.
Components:
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA):
Purpose: Acts as a long-term trend filter. The ETF must be below its 200-day SMA to be eligible for shorting.
Rationale: The 200-day SMA is widely used to gauge the long-term trend of a security. When the price is below this moving average, it is often considered to be in a downtrend (Tushar S. Chande & Stanley Kroll, "The New Technical Trader: Boost Your Profit by Plugging Into the Latest Indicators").
2-Period RSI:
Purpose: Measures the speed and change of price movements to identify overbought conditions.
Criteria: Short 10% of the position when the 2-period RSI is above 75 for two consecutive days.
Rationale: A high RSI value (above 75) indicates that the ETF may be overbought, which could precede a price reversal (J. Welles Wilder, "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems").
Scaling-In Mechanism:
Purpose: Gradually increase the short position as the ETF price rises beyond previous entry points.
Scaling Strategy:
20% more when the price is higher than the first entry.
30% more when the price is higher than the second entry.
40% more when the price is higher than the third entry.
Rationale: This incremental approach allows for an increased position size in a worsening trend, potentially increasing profitability if the trend continues to align with the strategy’s premise (Marty Schwartz, "Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader").
Exit Conditions:
Criteria: Close all positions when the 2-period RSI drops below 30 or the 10-day SMA crosses above the 30-day SMA.
Rationale: A low RSI value (below 30) suggests that the ETF may be oversold and could be poised for a rebound, while the SMA crossover indicates a potential change in the trend (Martin J. Pring, "Technical Analysis Explained").
Risks and Considerations:
Market Risk:
The strategy assumes that the ETF will continue to decline once shorted. However, markets can be unpredictable, and price movements might not align with the strategy's expectations, especially in a volatile market (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable").
Scaling Risks:
Scaling into a position as the price increases may increase exposure to adverse price movements. This method can amplify losses if the market moves against the position significantly before any reversal occurs.
Liquidity Risk:
Depending on the ETF’s liquidity, executing large trades in increments might affect the price and increase trading costs. It is crucial to ensure that the ETF has sufficient liquidity to handle large trades without significant slippage (James Altucher, "Trade Like a Hedge Fund").
Execution Risk:
The strategy relies on timely execution of trades based on specific conditions. Delays or errors in order execution can impact performance, especially in fast-moving markets.
Technical Indicator Limitations:
Technical indicators like RSI and SMA are based on historical data and may not always predict future price movements accurately. They can sometimes produce false signals, leading to potential losses if used in isolation (John Murphy, "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets").
Conclusion
The TPS Short strategy utilizes a combination of long-term trend filtering, overbought conditions, and incremental shorting to potentially profit from price reversals. While the strategy has a structured approach and leverages well-known technical indicators, it is essential to be aware of the inherent risks, including market volatility, liquidity issues, and potential limitations of technical indicators. As with any trading strategy, thorough backtesting and risk management are crucial to its successful implementation.
Relative volume zone + Smart Order Flow Dynamic S/ROverview:
The Relative Volume Zone + Smart Order Flow with Dynamic S/R indicator is designed to help traders identify key trading opportunities by combining multiple technical components. This script integrates relative volume analysis, order flow detection, VWAP, RSI filtering, and dynamic support and resistance levels to offer a comprehensive view of the market conditions. It is particularly effective on shorter timeframes (M5, M15), making it suitable for scalping and day trading strategies.
Key Components:
1. Relative Volume Zones:
• The script calculates the relative volume by comparing the current volume with the average volume over a defined lookback period (volLookback). When the relative volume exceeds a specified multiplier (volMultiplier), it indicates a high volume zone, signaling potential accumulation or distribution areas.
• Purpose: Identifies high-volume trading zones that may act as significant support or resistance, indicating possible entry or exit points.
2. Smart Order Flow Analysis:
• The indicator uses Volume Delta (the difference between buying and selling volume) and a Cumulative Delta to detect order imbalances in the market.
• Order Imbalance is identified using a moving average of the Volume Delta (orderImbalance), which helps highlight hidden buying or selling pressure.
• Purpose: Reveals market sentiment by showing whether buyers or sellers dominate the market, aiding in the identification of trend reversals or continuations.
3. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price):
• VWAP is calculated over a default daily length (vwapLength) to show the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price.
• Purpose: Provides insight into the fair value of the asset, indicating whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index) Filter:
• RSI is used to filter buy and sell signals, preventing trades in overbought or oversold conditions. It is calculated using a specified period (rsiPeriod).
• Purpose: Reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy by only allowing trades when RSI conditions align with volume and order flow signals.
5. Dynamic Support and Resistance Levels:
• The script dynamically plots support and resistance levels based on recent swing highs and lows (swingLookback).
• Purpose: Identifies potential reversal zones where price action may change direction, allowing for more precise entry and exit points.
How It Works:
• Buy Signal:
A buy signal is generated when:
• The price enters a high-volume zone.
• The price crosses above a 5-period moving average.
• The cumulative delta shows more buying pressure (cumulativeDelta > SMA of cumulativeDelta).
• The RSI is below 70 (not in overbought conditions).
• Sell Signal:
A sell signal is generated when:
• The price enters a high-volume zone.
• The price crosses below a 5-period moving average.
• The cumulative delta shows more selling pressure (cumulativeDelta < SMA of cumulativeDelta).
• The RSI is above 30 (not in oversold conditions).
• Dynamic Support and Resistance Lines:
Drawn based on recent swing highs and lows, these lines provide context for potential price reversals or breakouts.
• VWAP and Order Imbalance Lines:
Plotted to show the average traded price and highlight order flow shifts, helping to validate buy/sell signals.
How to Use:
1. Apply the Indicator:
Add the script to your chart and adjust the settings to match your trading style and preferred timeframe (optimized for M5/M15).
2. Interpret the Signals:
Use the buy and sell signals in conjunction with dynamic support/resistance, VWAP, and order imbalance lines to identify high-probability trade setups.
3. Monitor Alerts:
Set alerts for significant order flow events to receive notifications when there is a positive or negative order imbalance, indicating potential market shifts.
What Makes It Unique:
This script is unique because it combines multiple market analysis tools — relative volume zones, smart order flow, VWAP, RSI filtering, and dynamic support/resistance — to provide a well-rounded, multi-dimensional view of the market. This integration allows traders to make more informed decisions by validating signals across various indicators, enhancing overall trading accuracy and effectiveness.
KINGThis indicator generates buy and sell signals based on specific candle patterns involving the size of the candle's body and wicks. A buy signal is triggered when a large bearish candle (body twice the size of its wicks) is followed by a bullish candle with a long lower wick (twice the size of its body and upper wick), and the close is above the low of the bearish candle, while the low of the current candle is lower. A sell signal occurs when a large bullish candle is followed by a candle with a long upper wick, and the close is below the high of the bullish candle, while the high of the current candle is higher. The indicator includes a reset mechanism to avoid premature signals when large candles with contradicting patterns appear.
Wedge BreakoutThe Wedge Breakout indicator is designed to identify and signal potential breakouts from a wedge pattern, a common technical analysis formation. A wedge pattern typically forms when the price moves within converging trendlines, indicating a potential upcoming breakout either upwards (bullish) or downwards (bearish).
Identifying Pivot Points:
The indicator first calculates pivot points, which are significant highs and lows that define the wedge's upper and lower boundaries.
Pivot Lows: It identifies the lowest price points over a specified length (input_len), which serves as the lower boundary of the wedge.
Pivot Highs: Similarly, it identifies the highest price points over the same length, forming the upper boundary of the wedge.
Drawing Trendlines:
The pivot points are connected to form dashed trendlines that represent the upper and lower boundaries of the wedge.
The indicator uses the SimpleTrendlines library to manage and draw these trendlines dynamically:
Green Trendline: Indicates an upward slope (bullish).
Red Trendline: Indicates a downward slope (bearish).
Calculating the Breakout Conditions:
A breakout is confirmed when the price action fulfills two conditions:
The candle's high exceeds the upper trendline's highest point.
The candle's low drops below the lower trendline's lowest point.
This condition suggests that the price is squeezing within the wedge pattern and is about to break out.
Determining Breakout Direction:
The direction of the breakout is determined by the candle's closing position relative to its opening:
Bullish Breakout (Upward): When the candle closes above its opening price (close > open) after breaching both trendlines, it suggests a bullish breakout. This condition is marked with a green upward triangle .
Bearish Breakout (Downward): When the candle closes below its opening price (close < open) after breaching both trendlines, it suggests a bearish breakout. This condition is marked with a red downward triangle.
Visual Representation:
Green Triangle Up: Plotted below the bar to indicate a potential bullish breakout.
Red Triangle Down: Plotted above the bar to indicate a potential bearish breakout.
Used library:
www.tradingview.com
Adaptive VWAP [QuantAlgo]Introducing the Adaptive VWAP by QuantAlgo 📈🧬
Enhance your trading and investing strategies with the Adaptive VWAP , a versatile tool designed to provide dynamic insights into market trends and price behavior. This indicator offers a flexible approach to VWAP calculations by allowing users to adapt it based on lookback periods or fixed timeframes, making it suitable for a wide range of market conditions.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable VWAP Settings: Choose between an adaptive VWAP that adjusts based on a rolling lookback period, or switch to a fixed timeframe (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) for a more structured approach. Adjust the VWAP to suit your trading or investing style.
💫 Dynamic Bands and ATR Filter: Configurable deviation bands with multipliers allow you to visualize price movement around VWAP, while an ATR-based noise filter helps reduce false signals during periods of market fluctuation.
🎨 Trend Visualization: Color-coded trend identification helps you easily spot uptrends and downtrends based on VWAP positioning. The indicator fills the areas between the bands for clearer visual representation of price volatility and trend strength.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Set up alerts for when price crosses above or below the VWAP, signaling potential uptrend or downtrend opportunities. Stay informed without needing to monitor the charts constantly.
✍️ How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Adaptive VWAP to your favourites and apply to your chart. Choose between adaptive or timeframe-based VWAP calculation, adjust the lookback period, and configure the deviation bands to your preferred settings.
👀 Monitor Bands and Trends: Watch for price interaction with the VWAP and its deviation bands. The color-coded signals and band fills help identify potential trend shifts or price extremes.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for uptrend and downtrend signals based on price crossing the VWAP, so you’re always informed of significant market movements.
⚙️ How It Works:
The Adaptive VWAP adjusts its calculation based on the user’s chosen configuration, allowing for a flexible approach to market analysis. The adaptive setting uses a rolling lookback period to continuously adjust the VWAP, while the fixed timeframe option anchors VWAP to key timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly periods. This flexibility enables traders and investors to use the tool in various market environments.
Deviation bands, calculated with customizable multipliers, provide a clear visual of how far the price has moved from the VWAP, helping you gauge potential overbought or oversold conditions. To reduce false signals, an ATR-based filter can be applied, ensuring that only significant price movements trigger trend confirmations.
The tool also includes a fast exponential smoothing function for the VWAP, helping smooth out price fluctuations without sacrificing responsiveness. Trend confirmation is reinforced by the number of bars that price stays above or below the VWAP, ensuring a more consistent trend identification process.
Disclaimer:
The Adaptive VWAP is designed to enhance your market analysis but should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading or investing decisions. Always combine it with other analytical tools and practices. No statements or signals from this indicator constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Large Candle Detector (6-Candle Comparison)This indicator identifies large price candles that are bigger than the previous six candles, helping traders spot potential breakout or reversal signals. By highlighting significant candles compared to recent price action, it provides insights into key moments of increased volatility or momentum shifts in the market.
FiboTrace.V33FiboTrace.V33 - Advanced Fibonacci Retracement Indicator is a powerful and visually intuitive Fibonacci retracement indicator designed to help traders identify key support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes. Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, FiboTrace.V33 provides the essential tools needed to spot potential price reversals and continuations with precision.
Key Features:
• Dynamic Fibonacci Levels: Automatically plots the most relevant Fibonacci retracement levels based on recent swing highs and lows, ensuring you always have the most accurate and up-to-date levels on your chart.
• Gradient Color Zones: Easily distinguish between different Fibonacci levels with visually appealing gradient color fills. These zones help you quickly identify key areas of price interaction, making your analysis more efficient.
• Customizable Levels: Tailor FiboTrace.V33 to your trading style by adjusting the Fibonacci levels and colors to match your preferences. This flexibility allows you to focus on the levels most relevant to your strategy.
• Multi-Timeframe Versatility: Works seamlessly across all timeframes, from 1-minute charts for day traders to weekly and monthly charts for long-term investors. The indicator adapts to your trading horizon, providing reliable signals in any market environment.
• Confluence Alerts: Receive alerts when price enters zones where multiple Fibonacci levels overlap, indicating strong support or resistance. This feature helps you catch high-probability trade setups without constantly monitoring the charts.
How to Use:
• Identify Entry and Exit Points: Use the plotted Fibonacci levels to determine potential entry and exit points. Price retracements to key Fibonacci levels can signal opportunities to enter trades in the direction of the prevailing trend.
• Spot Reversals and Continuations: Watch for price action around the gradient color zones. A bounce off a Fibonacci level may indicate a trend continuation, while a break could signal a potential reversal.
• Combine with Other Indicators: For best results, consider using FiboTrace.V33 in conjunction with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, RSI, or MACD, to confirm signals and enhance your trading strategy.
Timeframe Recommendations:
• Shorter Timeframes (1-minute to 1-hour): Ideal for quick, intraday trades, though signals might be more prone to noise due to rapid market fluctuations.
• Medium Timeframes (4-hour to daily): Perfect for swing trading, offering more reliable Fibonacci levels that capture broader market trends.
• Longer Timeframes (weekly to monthly): Best for long-term investors, where Fibonacci levels act as strong support and resistance based on significant market moves.
• General Tip: Fibonacci retracement levels are more reliable on higher timeframes, but combining them with other indicators like moving averages or RSI can enhance signal accuracy across any timeframe.
Why FiboTrace.V33?
FiboTrace.V33 is more than just a Fibonacci retracement tool—it’s an essential part of any trader’s toolkit. Its intuitive design and advanced features help you stay ahead of the market, making it easier to identify high-probability trading opportunities and manage risk effectively.
PTBPrevious Highs and Lows with Fibonacci
This Pine Script indicator, "Previous Highs and Lows with Fibonacci," is designed to overlay on a trading chart and visually represent key Fibonacci levels based on historical highs and lows. It features:
Lookback Periods: The script allows you to define two lookback periods for calculating highs and lows: a short lookback period and a long lookback period. These are adjustable via input fields.
Highs and Lows Calculation: It calculates the highest and lowest values over the specified short and long periods, which are then plotted on the chart as reference lines.
Previous Highs and Lows Storage: The indicator stores the previous highs and lows for both short and long periods. These values are updated based on changes in the chart's timeframe.
Fibonacci Levels: The script calculates and plots key Fibonacci levels (0.0, 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 1.0) based on the highest and lowest values from the long lookback period. These Fibonacci lines are plotted as dotted lines on the chart.
Fibonacci Level Management: Old Fibonacci lines are deleted before new ones are drawn, ensuring that the chart remains uncluttered.
0.5 Fibonacci Level: The script specifically calculates and plots the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is used to identify potential price levels of interest.
Crossing Alert: An alert condition is set to notify you when the price crosses the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which can be crucial for making trading decisions.
Plotting: In addition to the Fibonacci levels, the script plots the current highs and lows for both short and long periods for easy reference.
FED and ECB Interest RatesFED and ECB Interest Rates Indicator
This indicator provides a clear visual representation of the Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates, offering traders and analysts a quick way to track these crucial economic metrics.
• Displays both FED (red) and ECB (blue) interest rates on a single chart
• Shows rates in basis points in the status line for precise reading
• Uses daily data for up-to-date rate information
• Features robust error handling for consistent performance
How It Works:
• Fetches FED rate from FRED and ECB rate from ECONOMICS database
• Plots rates as percentage values on the chart
• Displays rates in basis points when hovering over the chart
Use Cases:
• Monitor central bank policies and their potential impact on markets
• Compare FED and ECB rate trends over time
• Analyze correlation between interest rates and asset prices
• Assist in fundamental analysis for forex, equities, and fixed income trading
Note:
This indicator is for informational purposes only. Always combine this data with other forms of analysis and stay informed about central bank announcements and economic events.
Enhance your trading strategy with real-time insights into two of the world's most influential interest rates!
Atareum Volume Ichimuku CandleAVIC (Atareum Volume Ichimoku Candles) is clearly an awesome indicator that is based on Ichimoku concepts by combination with volume. This is a new approach of volume candles that is combined with Ichimoku concepts and creates such a powerful tool to trace the market and assists traders to make better decisions, truly.
Concept:
Using Ichimoku leading periods and calculations on redesigning new candles in combination with volume, that makes unique reform candles on Tenkansen movement, but these new candles clearly omit noises in combination with volume, and then the new redesigned system of cloud calculations builds, new series of data for Senko Span A and Senko Span B which is so odd in first view, because they will barely ever cross each other, but they show very more informative and useful.
Parameters:
Section 1 : Candle colour setting for flourishing just as you desire !
Section 2 : Defining Periods of standard Ichimoku and source of candle data in combination with determining the smoothing type of moving averages and signal period.
Section 3 : Select using Heikin Ashi based candles alongside with redesigned cloud calculation type and three additional moving averages which can plot on each newly generated candles and standard candles on a chart with the type mode defined in the previous section.
Note: if you want to omit any or all of these moving averages, you can use 0 in period, instead of selecting "None" in the plot moving option!
Usage :
Overall:
Regardless of the additional moving averages which will lead to so many situations of market according to their types and designs, that is four different period for new redesign AVIC and three period for standard chart. You can easily select periods and type for these moving averages. Also, do not forget that signal moving averages is shown only on AVIC chart and have two different colour for upward and downward trends. Other moving averages are plot by just one single colour.
Cloud levels are so important because AVIC candles show respect to them and when they break the clouds upward or downward it's surly beginning of a trend that is may last long. Also when cloud levels flatten, it is determining a support or resistance according to up cloud or down cloud nature and as long as they will continue or repeated periodically on same level of AVIC chart, it will implement their weakness or strength.
Support and Resistance:
Any flattens of cloud up or down level means the support or resistance level due to its nature, but important thing is how long the cloud lasts flatten or how many times repeated in the same level in AVIC chart.
For plotting the support or resistance you should trace first candle of start of flattens in standard chart just like following picture.
Divergence:
All Higher high or Lower low of standard chart has its reflect in AVIC chart but there is secret in it, It is named divergence. When standard chart price candles generating lower low but the AVIC chart candles do not cross the bottom, it means we will spike high as soon as AVIC candle chart complete its divergence. You can see perfect example in following picture.
Cloud level Ends
When cloud down level become flattens and cloud up level start a bull run it means we will face a great up trend movement but as soon as cloud down level starts to move up it mean we are going to finish the bull run and maybe it goes with consolidation phase or reversal phase. This reaction is exactly happen in vice versa for bear run trend. You can see both examples in following pictures.
Note: if we face end of bull run and cloud down level make a U turn shape upside down it means we will have reversal phase even not too long but it is sharp and fast reversal. If cloud down level just turn right slightly, it means we should have consolidation phase, mostly or we can continue the last trend slightly. All these situations can happen in vice versa bear run. You can see example in following picture.
Signals:
Long but risky:
You can go long when AVIC candles are green and be in position as long as they are not change in colour.
Long and safe :
You can go long when AVIC candles cross up cloud down level and be in position as long as AVIC candles cross down cloud up level.
Long and sure:
You can go long when AVIC candles cross up cloud up level and be in position as long as AVIC candles cross down cloud down level.
Short but risky:
You can go short when AVIC candles are red and be in position as long as they are not change in colour.
Short and safe :
You can go short when AVIC candles cross down cloud up level and be in position as long as AVIC candles cross up cloud down level.
Short and sure:
You can go short when AVIC candles cross down cloud down level and be in position as long as AVIC candles cross up cloud up level.
Notice : Candles with large body are so strong but if a body candle is weak or flatten it may a signal of changing colour and direction, especially when using Heikin Ashi type.
It is the result of many years of experience in markets and there are so many details about this AVIC chart which I am in the experiment phase to publish in the future, so please help me with your ideas and do not hesitate to comment and inform me any suggestions or criticism.
BTC Arcturus IndicatorBTC Arcturus Indicator: This indicator is designed to create buy and sell signals based on the market value of Bitcoin. It also predicts potential market tops with the Pi Cycle Top indicator.
How Does It Work?
1. MVRVZ (Market Value to Realized Value-Z Score) Calculation:
MC: Bitcoin's market cap (Market Cap) is pulled daily from Glassnode data.
MCR: Realized Market Cap of Bitcoin is taken daily from Coinmetrics data.
MVRVZ: It is calculated by dividing the difference between Bitcoin's market value and realized market value by one standard deviation. This value indicates whether the market is overvalued or undervalued.
2. Reception and Warning Signals:
Buy Signal: When MVRVZ falls below the -0.255 threshold value, the indicator gives a "Buy" signal. This indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued and may be a buying opportunity.
Warning Signal: A warning signal turns on when MVRVZ exceeds the threshold value of 2.765. This indicates that the market is approaching saturation and caution is warranted.
3. Tracking the Highest MVRVZ Value:
The indicator records the highest MVRVZ value in the last 10 candlesticks. This value is used to determine whether the market has reached its highest risk levels.
4. Warning Display:
If the MVRVZ value matches the highest value in the last 10 bars and this warning has not been displayed before, a "Warning" signal is displayed.
Once the warning signal is shown, no further warnings are shown for 10 candles.
5. Pi Cycle Top Indicator:
Pi Cycle Top: This indicator predicts Bitcoin tops by comparing two moving averages (350-day and 111-day). If the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, this is considered a sell signal.
The indicator displays this signal with the label "Sell", indicating a potential market top.
User Guide:
Green Buy Signal: It means Bitcoin is cheap and offers a buying opportunity.
Yellow Warning Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached possible profit taking points and caution should be exercised.
Red Sell Signal: Indicates that Bitcoin has reached market saturation and it may be appropriate to sell.
Larry Conners SMTP StrategyThe Spent Market Trading Pattern is a strategy developed by Larry Connors, typically used for short-term mean reversion trading. This strategy takes advantage of the exhaustion in market momentum by entering trades when the market is perceived as "spent" after extended trends or extreme moves, expecting a short-term reversal. Connors uses indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and price action patterns to identify these opportunities.
Key Elements of the Strategy:
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: The strategy looks for extreme overbought or oversold conditions, often indicated by low RSI values (below 30 for oversold and above 70 for overbought).
Mean Reversion: Connors believed that markets, especially in short-term scenarios, tend to revert to the mean after periods of strong momentum. The "spent" market is assumed to have expended its energy, making a reversal likely.
Entry Signals:
In an uptrend, a stock or market index making a significant number of consecutive up days (e.g., 5-7 consecutive days with higher closes) indicates overbought conditions.
In a downtrend, a similar number of consecutive down days indicates oversold conditions.
Reversal Anticipation: Once an extreme in price movement is identified (such as consecutive gains or losses), the strategy places trades anticipating a reversion to the mean, which is usually the 5-day or 10-day moving average.
Exit Points: Trades are exited when prices move back toward their mean or when the extreme conditions dissipate, usually based on RSI or moving average thresholds.
Why the Strategy Works:
Human Psychology: The strategy capitalizes on the fact that markets, in the short term, often behave irrationally due to the emotions of traders—fear and greed lead to overextended moves.
Mean Reversion Tendency: Financial markets often exhibit mean-reverting behavior, where prices temporarily deviate from their historical norms but eventually return. Short-term exhaustion after a strong rally or sell-off offers opportunities for quick profits.
Overextended Moves: Markets that rise or fall too quickly tend to become overextended, as buyers or sellers get exhausted, making reversals more probable. Connors’ approach identifies these moments when the market is "spent" and ripe for a reversal.
Risks of the Spent Market Trading Pattern Strategy:
Trend Continuation: One of the key risks is that the market may not revert as expected and instead continues in the same direction. In trending markets, mean-reversion strategies can suffer because strong trends can last longer than anticipated.
False Signals: The strategy relies heavily on technical indicators like RSI, which can produce false signals in volatile or choppy markets. There can be times when a market appears "spent" but continues in its current direction.
Market Timing: Mean reversion strategies often require precise market timing. If the entry or exit points are mistimed, it can lead to losses, especially in short-term trades where small price movements can significantly impact profitability.
High Transaction Costs: This strategy requires frequent trades, which can lead to higher transaction costs, especially in markets with wide bid-ask spreads or high commissions.
Conclusion:
Larry Connors’ Spent Market Trading Pattern strategy is built on the principle of mean reversion, leveraging the concept that markets tend to revert to a mean after extreme moves. While effective in certain conditions, such as range-bound markets, it carries risks—especially during strong trends—where price momentum may not reverse as quickly as expected.
For a more in-depth explanation, Larry Connors’ books such as "Short-Term Trading Strategies That Work" provide a comprehensive guide to this and other strategies .
Decoding the Volume of candlesThe indicator is designed for traders who are more interested in market structures and price action using volumes. Volume analysis can help traders build a clearer understanding of zones of buyer and seller interest, as well as liquidity gathering points (traders' stop levels).
Key Features:
The indicator visualizes on the chart the volumes selected according to the trader's chosen settings.
The indicator highlights candle volumes in selected colors, where the volume is greater individually than the volumes of the trader's chosen number of preceding candles. Or the volume that is greater than the sum of volumes of the trader's chosen number of preceding candles.
The indicator mark selected volumes on the chart based on the type of candle. The candle type (1, 2, or 3) is determined by its result (close) relative to other candles.
Volume marked for a type 3 candle draws the trader’s attention to the lack of results from the applied volume compared to the previous candle, indicating potential weakness of the candle’s owner. This is especially important in buyer or seller context areas.
Volume marked for a type 2 candle highlights the presence of results from the applied volume but only relative to the previous candle. In buyer or seller context areas, this can signal weakness of the candle’s owner.
Volume marked for a type 1 candle signals a strong result from the applied volume, indicating potential strength of the candle’s owner.
The marking of volumes can be displayed either on the main chart or on the volume chart, depending on the trader's preference. Colors and symbols for marking can be customized on the Style tab.
Volumes can be filtered on both the volume chart and the main chart according to their marking. This feature can be useful, for example, for traders who don’t work with signs of buyer or seller weakness. In such cases, they can filter out volumes only for type 1 candles.
Good luck exploring the impact of volumes on price behavior!
Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend [QuantAlgo]Introducing the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend by QuantAlgo 📈💫
Take your trading and investing strategies to the next level with the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend , a dynamic tool designed to adapt to market volatility and provide clear, actionable trend signals. This innovative indicator is ideal for both traders and investors looking for a more responsive approach to market trends, helping you capture potential shifts with greater precision.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable Trend Settings: Adjust the period for trend calculation and fine-tune the sensitivity to price movements. This flexibility allows you to tailor the Supertrend to your unique trading or investing strategy, whether you're focusing on shorter or longer timeframes.
📊 Volatility-Responsive Multiplier: The Supertrend dynamically adjusts its sensitivity based on real-time market volatility. This could help filter out noise in calmer markets and provide more accurate signals during periods of heightened volatility.
✨ Trend-Based Color-Coding: Visualize bullish and bearish trends with ease. The indicator paints candles and plots trend lines with distinct colors based on the current market direction, offering quick, clear insights into potential opportunities.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Set up alerts for key trend shifts to ensure you're notified of significant market changes. These alerts would allow you to act swiftly, potentially capturing opportunities without needing to constantly monitor the charts.
📈 How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend to your chart. Customize the trend period, volatility settings, and price source to match your trading or investing style. This ensures the indicator aligns with your market strategy.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts: Watch the color-coded trend lines and candles as they dynamically shift based on real-time market conditions. These visual cues help you spot potential trend reversals and confirm your entries and exits with greater confidence.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for key trend shifts, allowing you to stay informed of potential market reversals or continuation patterns, even when you're not actively watching the market.
⚙️ How It Works:
The Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend is designed to adapt to changes in market conditions, making it highly responsive to price volatility. The indicator calculates a trend line based on price and volatility, dynamically adjusting it to reflect recent market behavior. When the market experiences higher volatility, the trend line becomes more flexible, potentially allowing for greater sensitivity to rapid price movements. Conversely, during periods of low volatility, the indicator tightens its range, helping to reduce noise and avoid false signals.
The indicator includes a volatility-responsive multiplier, which further enhances its adaptability to market conditions. This means the trend direction would always be based on the latest market data, potentially helping you stay ahead of shifts or continuation trends. The Supertrend's visual color-coding simplifies the process of identifying bullish or bearish trends, while customizable alerts ensure you can stay on top of significant changes in market direction.
This tool is versatile and could be applied across various markets and timeframes, making it a valuable addition for both traders and investors. Whether you’re trading in fast-moving markets or focusing on longer-term investments, the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend could help you remain aligned with the current market environment.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is designed to enhance your analysis by providing trend information, but it should not be used as the sole basis for making trading or investing decisions. Always combine it with other forms of analysis and risk management practices. No statements or claims aim to be financial advice, and no signals from us or our indicators should be interpreted as such. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Magic Order Blocks [MW]Add a slim design, minimalist view of the most relevant higher and lower order blocks to your chart. Use our novel method of filtering that uses both the the number of consecutive bullish or bearish candles that follow the order block, and the number of ATRs that the asset’s price changed following the order block. View just the order blocks above and below the current price, or view the backgrounds for each and every one. And, if you're up to it, dig into a comprehensive view of the data for each order block candle.
Settings:
General Settings
Minimum # of Consecutive Bars Following Order Block
Show Bullish Order Blocks Below / Hide Last Bullish Block
Show Bearish Order Blocks Above / Hide Last Bearish Block
Use ATR Filter - Select # of ATRs Below
Closest Order Block is Followed by This Many ATRs
Preferences
Right Offset of Indicator Label
Show Mid-Line from Recent Order Block Indicator Label
Use ATRs Instead of Consecutive Candles in Label Indicator
Show Timestamp of Recent Order Block
Show Large Order Block Detail Labels
Show Small Order Block Labels
Background Settings
Show Background for Recent Order Block Indicator Label
# of Backgrounds to Show Before Now
Show All Bullish Order Block Backgrounds
Show All Bearish Order Block Backgrounds
Calculations
This indicator creates a matrix of each order block that is followed by the user-specified number of consecutive bullish or bearish candles. The data can be further filtered by the number of ATRs that the price moves after the order block - also user-defined. The most recent bearish order block above the current price takes arrays from the initial filtered matrix of arrays, filters once more by the “mid-price” of the order block (the average between the order block candle high and low) and selects the last element from this order block matrix. The same follows for the latest bearish order block above the current price.
How to Use
An order block refers to a price range or zone on a chart where large institutional orders have been placed, causing a significant shift in market direction. These zones are crucial because they often indicate areas of strong buying or selling interest, which can lead to future support or resistance levels. Traders use order blocks to identify potential points of market reversal or continuation.
The Magic Order Blocks default view shows the most recent overhead bearish order block above the current price, and the most recent bullish order block below. These can presumably act as support or resistance levels, because they reflect the last price where a significant price move occurred. “Significant” meaning that the order block candle was followed by many consecutive bullish or bearish candles. Based on the user-defined settings, it can also mean that price moved multiples of the asset's average true range (ATR). More consecutive candles means that the duration of the move lasted a long time. A higher ATR move indicates that the price moved impulsively in one direction.
The default view also shows a label to the right of the current price that provides the price level, the time stamp of the order block (optional), and a sequence of bars that show the significance of the level. By default, these bars represent the number of ATRs that price rose or fell following the order block, but they can be toggled to show the number of consecutive bullish or bearish candles that followed the order block.
Although the default view provides the zones that are most relevant to the current price, past order block candles can also be identified visually with labels as well with translucent backgrounds color-coded for bullish or bearish bias. Overlapping backgrounds can identify an area that has been repeatedly been an area of support or resistance.
A detailed view of each order block can also be viewed the includes the following data points:
Bar Index
Timestamp
Consecutive Accumulated Volume
Consecutive Bars
Price Change over Consecutive Bars
Price/Volume Ratio Over Consecutive Bars
Mid Price of Order Block
High Price of Order Block
Low Price of Order Block
ATRs over Consecutive Bars
- Other Usage Notes and Limitations:
The calculations used only provide an estimated relationship or a close approximation, and are not exact.
It's important for traders to be aware of the limitations of any indicator and to use them as part of a broader, well-rounded trading strategy that includes risk management, fundamental analysis, and other tools that can help with reducing false signals, determining trend direction, and providing additional confirmation for a trade decision. Diversifying strategies and not relying solely on one type of indicator or analysis can help mitigate some of these risks.
Things to keep in mind. Longer timeframes don’t necessarily have a as many consecutive candle drops or gains as with shorter timeframes, so be sure to adjust your settings when moving to 1 hour, 1 day, or 1 week timeframes from 1 minute, 5 minute, or 15 minute timeframes.
Grandfather-Father-Son RSI Buy Indicator-only for daily TFGrandfather-Father-Son RSI Buy and Sell Indicator
This script identifies buy and sell opportunities by combining RSI values across multiple timeframes to capture market trends and reversals. The "Grandfather-Father-Son" concept breaks down RSI analysis into three key timeframes:
Grandfather (Monthly): Represents the long-term trend, helping to filter trades that align with the overall market direction.
Father (Weekly): Provides intermediate-term momentum, confirming market conditions before signaling entry or exit points.
Son (Daily): Tracks short-term corrections and movements to pinpoint precise buy and sell opportunities.
Key Features:
Buy Signal: A buy signal is triggered when:
Monthly RSI (Grandfather) and Weekly RSI (Father) are both above 70.
Daily RSI (Son) is between 40 and 45, signaling a potential market pullback before resuming the upward trend.
The indicator checks for alignment across these timeframes to generate a reliable buy signal.
Sell Signal: A sell signal occurs when the Daily RSI (Son) crosses above 70, indicating a potential overbought condition.
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: The script pulls data from higher timeframes (monthly and weekly) to ensure that signals reflect larger market trends rather than short-term fluctuations.
Instructions:
Optimal Timeframe: This script works best on the Daily timeframe, as it uses Monthly and Weekly RSI for trend confirmation. The indicator will display a warning if applied to other timeframes to ensure it is used optimally.
Trend Alignment: The strategy ensures that buy signals are triggered only when there is a strong uptrend in both the Grandfather (Monthly) and Father (Weekly) RSI, while sell signals are based on potential overbought conditions in the Son (Daily) RSI.
Limitations:
Timeframe Dependency: Signals are based on higher timeframe data (Weekly and Monthly), which may only update at the close of those respective time periods. Therefore, it is designed to work in real-time but will be most reliable when trading in alignment with these longer-term trends.
Replay Mode: The script has been optimized to function correctly during live market conditions, with no reliance on future data (no lookahead). This ensures signals appear accurately during both backtesting and live trading.
Disclaimer:
This script is for educational purposes and should be used with caution. Always backtest before using in live trading and adjust parameters to fit your trading strategy and risk management plan.
Currency Futures StatisticsThe "Currency Futures Statistics" indicator provides comprehensive insights into the performance and characteristics of various currency futures. This indicator is crucial for portfolio management as it combines multiple metrics that are instrumental in evaluating currency futures' risk and return profiles.
Metrics Included:
Historical Volatility:
Definition: Historical volatility measures the standard deviation of returns over a specified period, scaled to an annual basis.
Importance: High volatility indicates greater price fluctuations, which translates to higher risk. Investors and portfolio managers use volatility to gauge the stability of a currency future and to make informed decisions about risk management and position sizing (Hull, J. C. (2017). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives).
Open Interest:
Definition: Open interest represents the total number of outstanding futures contracts that are held by market participants.
Importance: High open interest often signifies liquidity in the market, meaning that entering and exiting positions is less likely to impact the price significantly. It also reflects market sentiment and the degree of participation in the futures market (Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities).
Year-over-Year (YoY) Performance:
Definition: YoY performance calculates the percentage change in the futures contract's price compared to the same week from the previous year.
Importance: This metric provides insight into the long-term trend and relative performance of a currency future. Positive YoY performance suggests strengthening trends, while negative values indicate weakening trends (Fama, E. F. (1991). Efficient Capital Markets: II).
200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Position:
Definition: This metric indicates whether the current price of the currency future is above or below its 200-day simple moving average.
Importance: The 200-day SMA is a widely used trend indicator. If the price is above the SMA, it suggests a bullish trend, while being below indicates a bearish trend. This information is vital for trend-following strategies and can help in making buy or sell decisions (Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands).
Why These Metrics are Important for Portfolio Management:
Risk Assessment: Historical volatility and open interest provide essential information for assessing the risk associated with currency futures. Understanding the volatility helps in estimating potential price swings, which is crucial for managing risk and setting appropriate stop-loss levels.
Liquidity and Market Participation: Open interest is a critical indicator of market liquidity. Higher open interest usually means tighter bid-ask spreads and better liquidity, which facilitates smoother trading and better execution of trades.
Trend Analysis: YoY performance and the SMA position help in analyzing long-term trends. This analysis is crucial for making strategic investment decisions and adjusting the portfolio based on changing market conditions.
Informed Decision-Making: Combining these metrics allows for a holistic view of the currency futures market. This comprehensive view helps in making informed decisions, balancing risks and returns, and optimizing the portfolio to align with investment goals.
In summary, the "Currency Futures Statistics" indicator equips investors and portfolio managers with valuable data points that are essential for effective risk management, liquidity assessment, trend analysis, and overall portfolio optimization.
Sygnały Long/Short z SL i TPChoosing the Best Timeframe for Your Trading Strategy
The ideal timeframe for your trading strategy depends on several factors, including your trading style, risk preferences, and the goals of your strategy. Here’s a guide to different timeframes and their applications:
Timeframes and Their Uses:
Short-Term Timeframes (e.g., 5-minute, 15-minute):
Advantages: Provide more frequent signals and allow for quick responses to market changes. Ideal for day traders who prefer short, rapid trades.
Disadvantages: Can generate more false signals and be more susceptible to market noise. Requires more frequent attention and monitoring.
Medium-Term Timeframes (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour):
Advantages: Offer fewer false signals compared to shorter timeframes. Suitable for swing traders looking to capture short-term trends.
Disadvantages: Fewer signals compared to shorter timeframes. Requires less frequent monitoring.
Long-Term Timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly):
Advantages: Provide more stable signals and are less affected by market noise. Ideal for long-term investors and those trading based on trends.
Disadvantages: Fewer signals, which may be less frequent but more reliable. Requires longer confirmation times.
Recommendation for Your Strategy:
For a strategy based on moving averages (MA) and generating long/short signals, the 5-minute and 15-minute timeframes might be suitable if:
You are a day trader and want to generate multiple signals per day.
You prefer quick responses to price changes and want to execute trades within a shorter timeframe.
For more stable signals and fewer false signals:
1-hour or 4-hour timeframes might be more appropriate.
Testing and Optimization:
Test Different Timeframes: See how your strategy performs on various timeframes to find the one that works best for you.
Adjust Parameters: Modify the lengths of the short and long SMAs, as well as the SL and TP levels, to fit the chosen timeframe.
How to Test:
Add the script to your chart on different timeframes on TradingView.
Observe the effectiveness and accuracy of the signals.
Adjust settings based on results and personal preferences.
Summary:
There isn’t a single “best” timeframe as it depends on your trading style and objectives. Start by testing on shorter timeframes if you are interested in day trading, and then explore how the strategy performs on longer timeframes for more stable signals.
Custom Date CVDThis indicator allows setting a custom date for the beginning of cumulative volume delta calculations.
Why is it important? CVD shows aggressiveness of buyers and sellers. And in order for a bull run to sustain you need aggressive buyers hitting the ask. If the price goes up, but CVD goes down - unlikely this bull trend will last long.
You might want to choose a recent top or bottom as the start point and check whether the aggressiveness of market participants corresponds to the price movement since that peak. For example on the chart above we can see that the price was going up and down, but the aggressiveness clearly points down. Does it mean that we will have a long bear market? No. It means that until the aggressiveness starts pointing up we should not expect a bull market. It might happen tomorrow, or might happen in a month. Nobody knows. But until it starts happening - don't expect the real bull.
Additionally, candles where the aggressiveness went the opposite direction from the price are marked with a blue dot above them.
Note: the smaller the custom time frame of the indicator - the more correct the results are. However, the drawback is that shorter the lookback period will be. The actual length will depend on your subscription level and the number of subcandles of the selected instrument.
[DarkTrader] Pivot Point HeatmapThe indicator calculates pivot points using price data from different timeframes such as 12M, 1M, 1W, 3D, and 1D. For each timeframe, it retrieves the high, low, open, and close prices of the previous bar. The pivot point is calculated as the average of the high, low, and close prices, which provides a central level where market sentiment may shift. This calculation is repeated for each timeframe, ensuring a multi-dimensional view of potential interest zones.
Importance of Pivot Points :
Pivot points are essential tools in technical analysis, providing traders with levels that act as potential support and resistance zones. These zones help identify price levels where reversals or breakouts are more likely to occur.
Visual Representation :
The core feature of this indicator is its ability to visualize pivot points as a heatmap on the chart. Instead of showing just the latest pivot points, it tracks the historical pivot swipe, providing a dynamic view of how price interacts with these key levels. Each pivot point is represented by a line, color-coded based on its position relative to other points, creating a gradient effect that highlights the most critical price areas.
Customization Options :
Traders can customize various aspects of the heatmap to suit their preferences. The indicator offers options to toggle pivot swipe history, enabling traders to either focus on the most recent price interactions or consider how price has behaved over time. The background color and pivot line colors are fully customizable, making it easy to match the heatmap with your chart's theme or emphasize certain price levels.
Detecting Sweeps and Price Interaction :
Another important feature is the detection of price interactions with pivot levels. If the current bar's high and low cross a pivot point, it signals that the pivot level has been "swept" by price action, potentially indicating a change in market sentiment. The indicator either extends the line if the pivot point remains relevant or deletes it if price has broken through. This dynamic adjustment helps traders stay updated on which pivot levels are still valid.
Connors VIX Reversal III invented by Dave LandryThis strategy is based on trading signals derived from the behavior of the Volatility Index (VIX) relative to its 10-day moving average. The rules are split into buying and selling conditions:
Buy Conditions:
The VIX low must be above its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% above its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a buy signal is generated at the market's close.
Sell Conditions:
The VIX high must be below its 10-day moving average.
The VIX must close at least 10% below its 10-day moving average.
If both conditions are met, a sell signal is generated at the market's close.
Exit Conditions:
For long positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday below its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
For short positions, the strategy exits when the VIX trades intraday above its previous day’s 10-day moving average.
This strategy is primarily a mean-reversion strategy, where the market is expected to revert to a more normal state after the VIX exhibits extreme behavior (i.e., large deviations from its moving average).
About Dave Landry
Dave Landry is a well-known figure in the world of trading, particularly in technical analysis. He is an author, trader, and educator, best known for his work on swing trading strategies. Landry focuses on trend-following and momentum-based techniques, teaching traders how to capitalize on shorter-term price swings in the market. He has written books like "Dave Landry on Swing Trading" and "The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks," which emphasize practical, actionable trading strategies.
About Connors Research
Connors Research is a financial research firm known for its quantitative research in financial markets. Founded by Larry Connors, the firm specializes in developing high-probability trading systems based on historical market behavior. Connors’ work is widely respected for its data-driven approach, including systems like the RSI(2) strategy, which focuses on short-term mean reversion. The firm also provides trading education and tools for institutional and retail traders alike, emphasizing strategies that can be backtested and quantified.
Risks of the Strategy
While this strategy may appear to offer promising opportunities to exploit extreme VIX movements, it carries several risks:
Market Volatility: The VIX itself is a measure of market volatility, meaning the strategy can be exposed to sudden and unpredictable market swings. This can result in whipsaws, where positions are opened and closed in rapid succession due to sharp reversals in the VIX.
Overfitting: Strategies based on specific conditions like the VIX closing 10% above or below its moving average can be subject to overfitting, meaning they work well in historical tests but may underperform in live markets. This is a common issue in quantitative trading systems that are not adaptable to changing market conditions .
Mean-Reversion Assumption: The core assumption behind this strategy is that markets will revert to their mean after extreme movements. However, during periods of sustained trends (e.g., market crashes or rallies), this assumption may break down, leading to prolonged drawdowns.
Liquidity and Slippage: Depending on the asset being traded (e.g., S&P 500 futures, ETFs), liquidity issues or slippage could occur when executing trades at market close, particularly in volatile conditions. This could increase costs or worsen trade execution.
Scientific Explanation of the Strategy
The VIX is often referred to as the "fear gauge" because it measures the market's expectations of volatility based on options prices. Research has shown that the VIX tends to spike during periods of market stress and revert to lower levels when conditions stabilize . Mean reversion strategies like this one assume that extreme VIX levels are unsustainable in the long run, which aligns with findings from academic literature on volatility and market behavior.
Studies have found that the VIX is inversely correlated with stock market returns, meaning that higher VIX levels often correspond to lower stock prices and vice versa . By using the VIX’s relationship with its 10-day moving average, this strategy aims to capture reversals in market sentiment. The 10% threshold is designed to identify moments when the VIX is significantly deviating from its norm, signaling a potential reversal.
However, academic research also highlights the limitations of relying on the VIX alone for trading signals. The VIX does not predict market direction, only volatility, meaning that it cannot indicate the magnitude of price movements . Furthermore, extreme VIX levels can persist longer than expected, particularly during financial crises.
In conclusion, while the strategy is grounded in well-established financial principles (e.g., mean reversion and the relationship between volatility and market performance), it carries inherent risks and should be used with caution. Backtesting and careful risk management are essential before applying this strategy in live markets.
Larry Conners Vix Reversal II Strategy (approx.)This Pine Script™ strategy is a modified version of the original Larry Connors VIX Reversal II Strategy, designed for short-term trading in market indices like the S&P 500. The strategy utilizes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the VIX (Volatility Index) to identify potential overbought or oversold market conditions. The logic is based on the assumption that extreme levels of market volatility often precede reversals in price.
How the Strategy Works
The strategy calculates the RSI of the VIX using a 25-period lookback window. The RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It ranges from 0 to 100 and is often used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in assets.
Overbought Signal: When the RSI of the VIX rises above 61, it signals a potential overbought condition in the market. The strategy looks for a RSI downtick (i.e., when RSI starts to fall after reaching this level) as a trigger to enter a long position.
Oversold Signal: Conversely, when the RSI of the VIX drops below 42, the market is considered oversold. A RSI uptick (i.e., when RSI starts to rise after hitting this level) serves as a signal to enter a short position.
The strategy holds the position for a minimum of 7 days and a maximum of 12 days, after which it exits automatically.
Larry Connors: Background
Larry Connors is a prominent figure in quantitative trading, specializing in short-term market strategies. He is the co-author of several influential books on trading, such as Street Smarts (1995), co-written with Linda Raschke, and How Markets Really Work. Connors' work focuses on developing rules-based systems using volatility indicators like the VIX and oscillators such as RSI to exploit mean-reversion patterns in financial markets.
Risks of the Strategy
While the Larry Connors VIX Reversal II Strategy can capture reversals in volatile market environments, it also carries significant risks:
Over-Optimization: This modified version adjusts RSI levels and holding periods to fit recent market data. If market conditions change, the strategy might no longer be effective, leading to false signals.
Drawdowns in Trending Markets: This is a mean-reversion strategy, designed to profit when markets return to a previous mean. However, in strongly trending markets, especially during extended bull or bear phases, the strategy might generate losses due to early entries or exits.
Volatility Risk: Since this strategy is linked to the VIX, an instrument that reflects market volatility, large spikes in volatility can lead to unexpected, fast-moving market conditions, potentially leading to larger-than-expected losses.
Scientific Literature and Supporting Research
The use of RSI and VIX in trading strategies has been widely discussed in academic research. RSI is one of the most studied momentum oscillators, and numerous studies show that it can capture mean-reversion effects in various markets, including equities and derivatives.
Wong et al. (2003) investigated the effectiveness of technical trading rules such as RSI, finding that it has predictive power in certain market conditions, particularly in mean-reverting markets .
The VIX, often referred to as the “fear index,” reflects market expectations of volatility and has been a focal point in research exploring volatility-based strategies. Whaley (2000) extensively reviewed the predictive power of VIX, noting that extreme VIX readings often correlate with turning points in the stock market .
Modified Version of Original Strategy
This script is a modified version of Larry Connors' original VIX Reversal II strategy. The key differences include:
Adjusted RSI period to 25 (instead of 2 or 4 commonly used in Connors’ other work).
Overbought and oversold levels modified to 61 and 42, respectively.
Specific holding period (7 to 12 days) is predefined to reduce holding risk.
These modifications aim to adapt the strategy to different market environments, potentially enhancing performance under specific volatility conditions. However, as with any system, constant evaluation and testing in live markets are crucial.
References
Wong, W. K., Manzur, M., & Chew, B. K. (2003). How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market. Applied Financial Economics, 13(7), 543-551.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
