Seite 2 | Optionstrading — Indikatoren und Strategien

Volatility Risk Premium GOLD & SILVER 1.0 ENGLISH This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for GOLD and SILVER. V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for GOLD and SILVER options. The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility GOLD and SILVER ultimately realize (Realized Volatility). I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days. At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the precious metals (or both). Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period. The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator. Interpretation When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal. When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets. When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much. When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days). CONCEPTS : Volatility Risk Premium The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash. This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio. In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible. Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive. Realized/Historical Volatility Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time. Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas. For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices. Implied Volatility Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days). IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility. Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish. For determining GOLD and SILVER implied volatility I used their volatility indices: GVZ and VXSLV (30-day IV) provided by CBOE. Warning Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening. This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ESPAŇOL Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para GOLD y SILVER. V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de GOLD y SILVER. La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el ORO y la PLATA (Volatilidad Realizada). Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación. Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los metales preciosos (o ambos). Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real. La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador. Interpretación Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal. Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados. Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado. Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días). CONCEPTOS : Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado. Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera. En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante. Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo. Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado. La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes. Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios. Volatilidad Implícita La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días). IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita. La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista. Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de GOLD y SILVER utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: GVZ y VXSLV (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE. Precaución Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura. Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.

TICK strategy for SPY options Important notes: 1. This strategy is designed for same day SPY option scalping. All profit shown in back testing report is based on Profit/Loss (P/L) estimates from trading options with approximately 6 months of data. By default, it is set to 10 option contracts. By default the initial capital is set to $5000. Pyramiding is set to 3. 2. This strategy works better with non-extended market data. 3. This strategy is mainly developed for SPY trading on 5 min chart, it probably will not be very profitable with other tickers or time frame without tweaking all the parameters first. 4. This strategy will work with QQQ as well, but please adjust the profit multiplier to match the P/L of QQQ options. How it works: When trading the indices, many rely on the TICK for market directions. This strategy is a trend following strategy that uses a combination of conditions using the following indicators: - TICK - RSI - VIX volatility index - EMA For entries, the conditions are: 1. TICK moving average crossover with a delayed signal line 2. Bullish or bearish RSI signal, RSI > 50 for bullish, < 50 for bearish 3. VIX must be above a certain threshold to take advantage of high market volatility 4. Price must be on top of EMA line for long, and below for short For exits, there are 3 scenarios: 1. Stop loss set by a percentage of the daily ATR value 2. Trend changes on the TICK and the RSI 3. Bearish or bullish divergence on price with TICK This strategy automatically signal to close all trades at 3:50 pm EST at the end of the day. Extras: - There is an option to show P/L for reinvesting profits Enjoy~!!! Let's all make $$$

Monthly Options Expiration 2022 Monthly options expiration for the year 2022. Also you can set a flag X no. of days before the expiration date. I use it at as marker to take off existing positions in expiration week or roll to next expiration date or to place new trades. Happy new year 2022 in advance and all the best traders.

wEMPlot Description: Plots the Weekly Expected Move (wEM) using the following week's Option Chain ATM Call+Put ask price to determine the EM for the following week The wEM is the options market pricing in the expected future volatility for the following week. The wEM is the range that the underlying price will be contained during the week 68% of the time. These levels can be used as targets for options or equity trades for either directional or non-directional trades. The options market in the major indices, such as SPX, can drive the overall market's order flow and so the EM can provide useful insight into the hedging levels being used by professionals and market markers. As Trading View does not currently provide access to option chain data, the option chain expected move for an underlying has to be manually entered each week, but the script provides an easy to use framework to enter the parameters for the next week. These parameters are as follows: eg. t1_1 = timestamp(2021, 02, 08) <==== timestamp for the start of next week (yyyy,mm,dd) t1_2 = timestamp(2021, 02, 12) <==== timestamp for the end of next week (yyyy,mm,dd) plotwem("QQQ", 331.36, 5.86, t1_1, t1_2, 0, 0) ^^^^ plotwem(Symbol, Close-last-week, Expected Move next week, Next week start timestamp, Next week end timestamp, Highlight-Upper-EM, Highlight-Lower-EM) Parameters are: Symbol : Underlying chart symbol (aka ticker). Can be a symbol for equity, future or index. Close-last-week: Closing price at the end of last week. Expected Move next week: The Expected Move for next week: Calculated from next week's Option Chain ATM Call+Put ask price Next week start timestamp : Timestamp for the start of next week Next week end timestamp : Timestamp for the end of next week Highlight-Upper-EM : highlight upper expected move level. Set to 1 to highlight with red color. Set to 0 is no highlight. Highlight-Lower-EM : highlight lower expected move level. Set to 1 to highlight with red color. Set to 0 is no highlight. The highlight parameters can be updated at any point to indicate that the underlying has either touched the EM level or breached the level. The highlights can be used to visually determine periods of market instability which can provide insight into applicable strategies for the market conditions.

Monthly Options Expiration 2021 Monthly options expiration for the year 2021. Also you can set a flag X no. of days before the expiration date. I use it at as marker to take off existing positions in expiration week or roll to next expiration date or to place new trades. Happy new year 2021 in advance and all the best traders.

Swing Reversal Indicator Swing Reversal Indicator was meant to help identify pivot points on the chart which indicate momentum to buy and sell. The indicator uses 3 main questions to help plot the points: Criteria Did price take out yesterday's high or low? Is today's range bigger than yesterday? (Indicates activity in price) Is the close in the upper/lower portion of the candle? Thus, indicating momentum in that direction This indicator was built to help me find pivot points for directional options trading however can be used for equities and forex swing trading and other strategies. Used in conjunction with a BB extreme can provide good setups. Alerts are available for both the long and the short positions and the indicator will repaint as price moves. The character Plotted can be changed in the settings The size of the candle area can be changed as well if you want to tighten/loosen the trigger points based on the third question above.

Implied Volatility Percentile This script calculates the Implied Volatility (IV) based on the daily returns of price using a standard deviation. It then annualizes the 30 day average to create the historical Implied Volatility. This indicator is intended to measure the IV for options traders but could also provide information for equities traders to show how price is extended in the expected price range based on the historical volatility. The IV Rank (Green line) is then calculated by looking at the high and low volatility over the number of days back specified in the input parameter, default is 252 (trading days in 1 year) and then calculating the rank of the current IV compared to the High and Low. This is not as reliable as the IV Percentile as the and extreme high or low could have a side effect on the ranking but it is included for those that want to use. The IV Percentile is calculated by counting the number of days below the current IV, then returns this as a % of the days back in the input You can adjust the number of days back to check the IV Rank & IV Percentile if you are not wanting to look back a whole year. This will only work on Daily or higher timeframe charts.

FOMO DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS RETICLE Options Reticle caters to degenerate traders and gamblers worldwide, reaching out for long distant contract expiration and just OTM strike placement. Generate the overlay yourself using the tradingview-options-reticle CLI tool found on GitHub. The Options Reticle provides a targeting system overlay that will show a horizontal OTM strike price and verticle expiration target. If you're thinking as soon as the expiration date has passed, this overlay will be useless; you're right but, you can use the options-reticle CLI tool to generate a new overlay from a watchlist exported from TradingView. OVERLAY FEATURES: Quick Action PUT (QAP) Mode - When you flip the chart by adding a 0- in front of the symbol, you will see the PUT contract target. Strike Price / Expiration Crosshairs. Fill Mode - Shows a fill between the historical price and the target strike price. It will show green when ITM and red when OTM. Target information panel - Shows the company name, days till expiration, month and day of expiration, strike price, dollars OTM or ITM, and the contract type. Emotion Indicator - Shows an exact representation of your feelings based on if you were in the trade. It has an accuracy of 99.9 percent. QUICK ACTION PUT (QAP) MODE : This style of reticle is not visible until you flip the chart. The advantage of the (QAP) is that it maintains the same appearance as the standard style of reticle, making PUT contract targeting feel the same. When targeting with (QAP) mode, be aware that the chart prices are reversed. Up is down, and down is up; this can be confusing but will feel normal overtime. Activate QAP mode by appending a 0- to the symbol of the chart. If nothing appears, no put option data was found for that symbol. CALIBRATING YOUR RETICLE : The overlay is generated using the options-reticle CLI tool found on GitHub. The adjustment script will parse a watchlist exported from TradingView then download options data for each ticker in the watchlist. The max amount of symbols you can add to a single overlay is about 200. Any more than 200 and the overlay will crash. Luckily, If you use a TradingView watchlist with more than 200 ticker symbols to generate overlays, the options-reticle command-line tool will automatically create multiple overlays with 200 tickers each. You can add multiple overlays to your chart to get all the tickers in the watchlist. RETICLE GENERATION AND MOUNTING : Add all the tickers you want to track into a watchlist on Tradingview. Export the watchlist into a txt file using TradingView's watchlist export list button. Open the terminal and change to the directory with the downloaded watchlist txt file. Install options-reticle command tool with pipx. pipx install tradingview-options-reticle. Run the command options-reticle download --watchlist {name of watchlist.txt file}. This will download the options data to an options_data.toml in the same directory as the watchlist txt file. Run the command options-reticle build --options-data-input-path options_data.toml. This will generate the overlay scripts. If the watch list has more than 200 ticker symbols, it will generate a separate overlay script for every 200 ticker symbol chunk. Copy and paste each of the generated overlay scripts one at a time into the Pine Editor on TradingView, then click the Add to Chart button. Make sure you copy the entire code. FUTURE FEATURES : Give the choice to generate PUT option contracts without using QAP mode. This option will allow you to use the input settings to change the contract type without flipping the chart. Max OTM target argument - This will allow the option-reticle CLI to generate overlays with deeper OTM contracts. It currently only searches for the first OTM contract. Add the ability to change the crosshair line type.

Monthly Options Expiration 2020 Monthly options expiration for the year 2020. Also you can set a flag X no. of days before the expiration date. I use it at as marker to take off existing positions in expiration week or roll to next expiration date or to place new trades. Happy new year 2020 and all the best traders.