Statistcal Daily Profile & Ranges# Statistical Daily Profile & Ranges - TradingView Publication Guide
## Overview
The **Statistical Daily Profile & Ranges** indicator is a comprehensive tool designed to analyze intraday session behavior and daily range characteristics. It combines Average Daily Range (ADR) projection levels with detailed session-by-session statistics and probability-based trading insights derived from historical price action patterns.
## What This Indicator Does
This indicator provides traders with three core analytical components:
1. **ADR Projection Levels** - Dynamic support/resistance levels based on historical daily ranges
2. **Session Range Analysis** - Visual boxes and statistical breakdowns for four key trading sessions
3. **Dynamic Probability Display** - Real-time probability statistics based on overnight session relationships
## How It Works
### Average Daily Range (ADR) Calculation
The indicator calculates the average daily range over a user-defined lookback period (default: 10 days) and projects this range from each day's opening price. This creates two key levels:
- **ADR High**: Opening price + average daily range
- **ADR Low**: Opening price - average daily range
- **ADR Median**: The opening price (middle of the projected range)
These levels are recalculated at the start of each trading day and extend forward, providing dynamic support and resistance zones based on recent volatility characteristics.
### Session Tracking & Statistics
The indicator monitors four distinct trading sessions (times in Eastern Time):
1. **Asia Session** (8:00 PM - 2:00 AM)
2. **London Session** (2:00 AM - 8:00 AM)
3. **NY Open** (8:00 AM - 9:00 AM)
4. **NY Initial Balance** (9:30 AM - 10:30 AM)
For each session, the indicator:
- Draws a colored box showing the session's high-to-low range
- Tracks the opening price, high, and low
- Stores historical data for statistical analysis
- Calculates average ranges by day of week (Monday through Friday)
The session statistics are displayed in a customizable table showing average point ranges for each session across different weekdays, helping traders identify which sessions and days typically produce the most movement.
### Dynamic Probability System
The indicator analyzes the relationship between the Asia and London sessions to determine the current market setup. After the London session closes, it automatically detects one of four possible conditions:
**1. London Engulfs Asia**
- London session breaks both above Asia's high AND below Asia's low
- This indicates strong momentum during the European session
- Most common occurrence pattern
**2. Asia Engulfs London**
- Asia session range completely contains the London session range
- Indicates consolidation during London hours
- Relatively rare pattern (occurs approximately 5.36% of the time)
**3. London Partially Engulfs Upwards**
- London breaks above Asia's high but stays above Asia's low
- Suggests bullish momentum continuation from Asia into London
**4. London Partially Engulfs Downwards**
- London breaks below Asia's low but stays below Asia's high
- Suggests bearish momentum continuation from Asia into London
Once a condition is detected, the indicator displays a probability table showing historically observed outcomes for that specific setup, including:
- Probability of NY session taking out key levels (Asia high/low, London high/low)
- Probability of NY session engulfing the entire overnight range
- Directional bias for NY Cash session (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM)
## How to Use This Indicator
### Initial Setup
1. Add the indicator to your chart (works on any intraday timeframe below Daily)
2. Adjust the **ADR Days** setting (default: 10) to control the lookback period for range calculation
3. Adjust the **Session Lookback Days** setting (default: 50) to determine how much historical data feeds the statistics tables
### Reading the ADR Levels
- Use the **ADR High** and **ADR Low** lines as potential profit targets or areas where price may encounter resistance
- The **ADR Median** line represents the opening price and can act as a pivot point for intraday directional bias
- If price reaches the ADR High early in the session, it suggests strong bullish momentum; conversely for ADR Low
- These levels adapt daily based on recent volatility, making them more responsive than static levels
### Interpreting Session Boxes
- **Session boxes** visually highlight when each trading session is active and its price range
- Larger boxes indicate higher volatility during that session
- Compare current session ranges to the statistical averages shown in the table
- Sessions that are unusually quiet or active relative to historical averages may signal compression or expansion
### Using the Session Statistics Table
- The table shows average point ranges for each session broken down by weekday
- Identify which sessions typically produce the most movement on specific days
- For example, if London on Thursdays averages 40 points while Mondays average 25 points, you can adjust position sizing or expectations accordingly
- The **Total** column shows the overall average across all days
- Sample sizes (shown in brackets if enabled) indicate data reliability
### Trading with the Probability Table
The probability table updates dynamically after the London session closes and shows statistically probable outcomes based on 12 years of NQ futures data.
**Important Limitations:**
- **These probabilities are derived from NQ (Nasdaq E-mini futures) data only**
- **Do NOT apply these probability statistics to other instruments** (ES, stocks, forex, etc.)
- The probabilities represent historical frequencies, not guarantees
- Always combine with your own analysis, risk management, and market context
**How to Apply the Probabilities:**
When **London Engulfs Asia**:
- Watch for NY session to take out London's extremes (72.33% probability for high, 71.12% for low)
- Slight bullish bias in NY Cash session (54.80% vs 45.20%)
- Lower probability of complete overnight engulfment (44.13%)
When **Asia Engulfs London** (rare - 5.36% occurrence):
- Higher probability NY takes Asia's high (75.86%)
- Moderately high probability NY takes Asia's low (65.52%)
- Slight increase in bullish bias (58.42% vs 41.58%)
- Recognize this as an unusual setup
When **London Partially Engulfs Upwards**:
- Very high probability NY takes London high (81.51%)
- Strong probability NY takes London low (64.45%)
- Moderate probability NY takes Asian low (53.16%)
- Slight bullish bias (55.52%)
When **London Partially Engulfs Downwards**:
- Very high probability NY takes London low (75.29%)
- Strong probability NY takes London high (68.80%)
- Moderate probability NY takes Asian high (56.44%)
- Slight bullish bias maintained (52.99%)
### Practical Trading Applications
**Scenario 1: Range Projection**
If the ADR is 500 points and the market opens at 25,000:
- ADR High: 25,500 (potential resistance/target)
- ADR Low: 24,500 (potential support/target)
- Monitor how price interacts with these levels throughout the day
**Scenario 2: Session-Based Trading**
Using the statistics table, you notice London on Wednesdays averages 35 points. During a Wednesday London session:
- If London has already moved 30 points, the session may be exhausting its typical range
- If London has only moved 15 points with an hour remaining, there may be expansion potential
- Adjust stop losses and targets based on typical session behavior
**Scenario 3: Probability-Based Setup**
It's 8:05 AM ET and the indicator shows "London Partially Engulfs Upwards":
- You now know there's an 81.51% historical probability NY will take out London's high
- There's a 53.16% probability NY will reach down to Asia's low
- The NY Cash session has a slight bullish bias (55.52%)
- Consider this alongside your technical analysis for directional bias and level targeting
## Customization Options
### Visual Settings
- **Line Width**: Adjust thickness of ADR levels
- **ADR Color/Style**: Customize appearance of ADR projection lines (solid, dashed, dotted)
- **Median Line**: Toggle visibility and customize appearance separately
- **Session Box Colors**: Customize each session's box color independently
- **Show Session Boxes**: Toggle session box visibility on/off
### Label Settings
- **ADR Labels**: Show/hide labels for ADR High and ADR Low, adjust size
- **Median Label**: Separate control for median line label
- **Session Labels**: Show/hide session name labels, adjust size
- **Label Colors**: Customize text colors for all labels
### Table Settings
- **Session Stats Table**: Position (9 locations available), size (Tiny to Huge), toggle on/off
- **Sample Sizes**: Show/hide the number of historical samples used for each calculation
- **Probabilities Table**: Separate position and size controls, toggle on/off
### Session Times
- Each session's time range can be customized to fit different markets or preferences
- All times are in Eastern Time (America/New_York timezone)
## Technical Notes
### Data Requirements
- The indicator requires sufficient historical data based on your lookback settings
- Minimum recommended: 50+ days of intraday data for reliable statistics
- Works on any timeframe below Daily (1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, etc.)
### Calculation Methodology
- **ADR Calculation**: Simple average of absolute daily high-low ranges
- **Session Statistics**: Mean average of ranges for each session filtered by day of week
- **Condition Detection**: Boolean logic comparing session high/low relationships
- All calculations update in real-time as new bars form
### Probability Data Source
The probability statistics displayed in the dynamic table are derived from:
- **Dataset**: 12 years of NQ (Nasdaq E-mini futures) historical data
- **Methodology**: Frequency analysis of outcomes following specific setup conditions
- **Time Period**: Multiple market cycles including various volatility regimes
**Critical Warning**: These probabilities are specific to NQ and reflect that instrument's behavior patterns. Market microstructure, participant behavior, and volatility characteristics differ significantly across instruments. Do not apply these NQ-derived probabilities to other markets (ES, RTY, YM, individual stocks, forex, commodities, etc.).
## Best Practices
1. **Combine with Other Analysis**: Use this indicator as one component of a complete trading methodology, not a standalone system
2. **Respect Risk Management**: Probabilities are not certainties; always use proper position sizing and stop losses
3. **Context Matters**: High-impact news events, holiday trading, and extreme volatility can invalidate typical patterns
4. **Verify Statistics**: Monitor your own results and compare to the displayed probabilities
5. **Adapt Session Times**: If trading instruments with different active hours, adjust session times accordingly
6. **Regular Calibration**: Periodically review if the session averages and probabilities remain relevant to current market conditions
## Understanding Originality
This indicator is original in its approach to combining three analytical frameworks into a single tool:
1. **Dynamic ADR Projection**: Unlike static pivot points, these levels adapt daily based on recent volatility
2. **Session-Specific Statistics**: Goes beyond simple volume profiles by quantifying average ranges for specific time windows across weekdays
3. **Conditional Probability Display**: Automatically detects overnight session relationships and displays relevant probability data rather than showing all scenarios simultaneously
The conditional logic system that determines which probability set to display is a key differentiator—traders only see the statistics relevant to the current market setup, reducing information overload and improving decision-making clarity.
## Summary
The **Statistical Daily Profile & Ranges** indicator provides traders with a comprehensive framework for understanding daily range potential, session-specific behavior patterns, and probability-based setup analysis. By combining ADR projection levels with detailed session statistics and dynamic probability displays, traders gain multiple perspectives on potential price movement within the trading day.
The indicator is most effective when used to:
- Set realistic profit targets based on average daily range
- Identify which sessions typically produce movement on specific weekdays
- Understand probability-weighted outcomes for different overnight setup conditions (NQ only)
- Visualize session ranges and compare them to historical averages
Remember that all statistical analysis reflects historical patterns, and market behavior can change. Always combine indicator signals with sound risk management, proper position sizing, and your own market analysis.
Nqstats
NQ Hourly Retracements - 12y Stats with LevelsHour Stats with Levels - TradingView Indicator Description
IMPORTANT: NQ FUTURES ONLY
This indicator is specifically designed for and calibrated to NQ (Nasdaq-100 E-mini) futures only. The statistical data is derived exclusively from 13 years of NQ price action (2013-2025). Do not use this indicator on any other asset, ticker, or market as the statistics will not be applicable and may lead to incorrect trading decisions.
Overview
"Hour Stats with Levels" is a statistical analysis indicator that provides real-time probability-based insights into hourly price behavior patterns. The indicator combines historical pattern recognition with live price action to help traders anticipate potential sweep and reversal scenarios within each trading hour.
Originality and Core Concept
This indicator is based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of 12y years of 1-minute NQ futures data, examining a specific price pattern: when an hourly candle opens inside the previous hour's range. Unlike generic support/resistance indicators, this tool provides hour-specific, context-aware probabilities based on 30,000+ historical occurrences of this pattern.
The originality lies in three key areas:
Pattern-Specific Statistics: Rather than applying generic technical analysis, the indicator only activates when the current hour opens within the previous hour's range, providing relevant statistics for this exact scenario.
Context-Aware Probabilities: Statistics are differentiated based on whether the current hour opened above or below the previous hour's open, recognizing that bullish and bearish opening contexts produce different behavioral patterns.
Comprehensive Retracement Tracking: The indicator tracks four independent retracement levels after a sweep occurs, showing the probability of price returning to: the swept level itself (90+% probability), the 50% level, the current hour's open, and the opposite extreme.
How It Works
The Core Pattern
The indicator monitors a specific price structure:
Setup Condition: The current hourly candle opens inside (between) the previous hour's high and low
Sweep Event: Price then breaks above the previous high (high sweep) or below the previous low (low sweep)
Retracement Analysis: After a sweep, the indicator tracks whether price retraces to key levels
Statistical Foundation
The underlying analysis processed 1-minute bar data from 2013-2025, identifying every instance where an hourly candle opened inside the previous hour's range. For each occurrence, the system tracked:
Whether the high, low, or both were swept during that hour
The distance of the sweep measured as a percentage of the previous hour's range
Whether price retraced to four key levels: the swept level, the 50% point, the current open, and the opposite extreme
These measurements were aggregated for all 24 hours of the trading day, with separate statistics for bullish contexts (opening above previous open) and bearish contexts (opening below previous open), creating 48 unique statistical profiles.
Sweep Distance Percentiles
The "reversal levels" are drawn based on historical sweep distance distributions:
25th Percentile: 75% of historical sweeps were larger than this distance. This represents a conservative reversal zone where smaller, contained sweeps typically reverse.
Median (50th Percentile): The midpoint of all historical sweep distances. Half of all sweeps reversed before reaching this level, half extended beyond it.
75th Percentile: Only 25% of sweeps extended beyond this distance. This represents an extended sweep zone where price has historically shown exhaustion.
For example, if the previous hour's range was 20 points and the median high sweep distance is 40% of range, the median reversal level would be placed 8 points above the previous high.
How to Use the Indicator
Sweeps were calculated using 1m data - as such, it's recommended to use the indicator on a 1min chart
Visual Components
Hour Delimiter (Gray Vertical Line)
Marks the start of each new hour
Helps identify when new statistics become active
Sweep Markers
Green "H" label: High sweep has occurred this hour
Red "L" label: Low sweep has occurred this hour
Markers appear on the exact bar where the sweep happened
Target Levels (Blue Lines)
Prev Open: Previous hour's opening price
Prev High: Previous hour's highest price (sweep target)
Prev Low: Previous hour's lowest price (sweep target)
Prev 50%: Midpoint of previous hour's range
Current Open: Current hour's opening price (key retracement target)
Reversal Levels (Purple Dashed Lines)
Positioned beyond the previous high/low based on historical sweep percentiles
Three levels above previous high (for high sweeps)
Three levels below previous low (for low sweeps)
These represent statistically-derived zones where sweeps typically exhaust
The Statistics Table
The table dynamically updates each hour and displays different statistics based on whether the current hour opened above or below the previous hour's open.
Status Row
Shows current state: waiting for sweep, or which sweep(s) have occurred
If waiting, indicates which sweep is more probable based on historical data
SWEEP PROBABILITIES Section
High Sweep: Historical probability (%) that price will sweep the previous high this hour
Low Sweep: Historical probability (%) that price will sweep the previous low this hour
Both Sweeps: Historical probability (%) that price will sweep both levels this hour
These probabilities are derived from counting how many times each pattern occurred in similar historical contexts. For example, "High Sweep: 73.18%" means that in 73.18% of historical occurrences where the hour opened in this same context (same hour of day, same position relative to previous open), price swept the previous high before the hour closed.
AFTER HIGH SWEEP → Section
These statistics activate only after a high sweep has occurred. They show the probability of price retracing to various levels:
→ Prev High: Probability that price returns to (or below) the level it just swept. This is typically 90%+ because sweeps often act as "false breakouts" or liquidity grabs before reversal.
→ 50% Level: Probability that price retraces at least halfway back into the previous hour's range. This represents a moderate retracement.
→ Current Open: Probability that price retraces all the way back to where the current hour opened. This indicates a complete reversal of the sweep move.
→ Prev Low: Probability that price retraces entirely through the previous range to touch the opposite extreme. This represents a full reversal pattern.
AFTER LOW SWEEP → Section
Mirror of the above, but for low sweeps:
→ Prev Low: Retracement to the swept low level (90%+ probability)
→ 50% Level: Retracement to middle of range
→ Current Open: Full retracement to current hour's open
→ Prev High: Complete reversal to opposite extreme
Important Note on Retracement Statistics: These percentages are tracked independently. A 90% probability of returning to the swept level doesn't mean there's only a 10% chance of deeper retracement. Price can (and often does) retrace through multiple levels sequentially. The percentages show how many times price reached at least that level, not where it stopped.
Trading Applications
Anticipating Sweeps
When an hour opens inside the previous range, check the probabilities. If "High Sweep: 70%" and "Low Sweep: 30%", you know there's a 70% historical likelihood of an upside sweep occurring this hour. This doesn't guarantee it will happen, but provides statistical context for potential setups.
Reversal Trading
The most reliable pattern in the data is the 90%+ retracement probability to swept levels. When a sweep occurs, traders can anticipate a retracement back to at least the swept level in the vast majority of cases. The reversal level percentiles help identify where sweeps may exhaust.
Position Management
The retracement probabilities help manage existing positions. For example, if you're long and a high sweep occurs, you know there's a 90%+ chance of at least some retracement to the swept level, which might inform profit-taking or stop-loss decisions.
Confluence with Current Open
The "Current Open" retracement statistics (typically 60-70%) highlight the magnetic quality of the hour's opening price. After a sweep, price frequently returns to test this level.
Customization Options
The indicator offers extensive visual customization:
Toggle on/off: hour delimiters, sweep markers, target levels, reversal levels, statistics table
Customize colors, line widths, and styles for all visual elements
Adjust label sizes and table position
Show/hide individual target levels and reversal percentiles
Limitations and Considerations
Pattern-Specific: The indicator only provides statistics when the current hour opens inside the previous hour's range. If the hour opens outside this range (gaps up or down), the statistics are not applicable.
Historical Probabilities: The percentages represent historical frequencies, not predictions. A 70% probability means it happened 70% of the time historically, not that it will definitely happen 7 out of 10 times going forward.
NQ-Specific Calibration: All statistics are derived from NQ futures data. Market behavior, volatility, and patterns differ across assets.
Hour-Specific Behavior: Different hours show dramatically different statistics. For example, the 9 AM EST hour (market open) shows much higher sweep probabilities (80%+) than the 5 PM EST hour (30-50%) due to differing liquidity and volatility conditions.
No Guarantee of Execution: While a 90% retracement probability is high, it means 10% of the time, price did NOT retrace. Always use proper risk management.
Technical Notes
The indicator uses hourly timeframe data via request.security() to determine previous hour values
Sweep detection occurs in real-time on the chart's timeframe
Statistics are hardcoded from the comprehensive backtested analysis (not calculated on-the-fly)
The indicator stores static values at the start of each hour to ensure consistency as the hour progresses
All percentage values are rounded to one decimal place for clarity
This indicator provides a statistically-grounded framework for understanding hourly price behavior in NQ futures. By combining real-time pattern detection with comprehensive historical analysis, it offers traders probabilistic insights to inform decision-making process within the specific context of each trading hour.
multi-tf standard devs [keypoems]Multi-Timeframe Standard Deviations Levels
A visual map of “how far is too far” across any three higher time-frames.
1. What it does
This script plots dynamic price “rails” built from standard deviation (StDev)—the same math that underpins the bell curve—on up to three higher-time-frames (HTFs) at once.
• It measures the volatility of intraday open-to-close increments, reaching back as far as 5000 bars (≈ 20 years on daily data).
• Each HTF can be extended to the next session or truncated at session close for tidy dashboards.
• Lines can be mirrored so you see symmetric positive/negative bands, and optional background fills shade the “probability cone.”
Because ≈ 68 % of moves live inside ±1 StDev, ≈ 95 % inside ±2, and ≈ 99.7 % inside ±3, the plot instantly shows when price is statistically stretched or compressed.
3. Key settings
Higher Time-Frame #1-3 Turn each HTF on/off, pick the interval (anything from 1 min to 1 year), and decide whether lines should extend into the next period.
Show levels for last X days Keep your chart clean by limiting how many historical sessions are displayed (1-50).
Based on last X periods Length of the StDev sample. Long look-backs (e.g. 5 000) iron-out day-to-day noise; short look-backs make the bands flex with recent volatility.
Fib Settings Toggle each multiple, line thickness/style/colour, label size, whether to print the numeric level, the live price, the HTF label, and whether to tint the background (choose your own opacity).
4. Under-the-hood notes
StDev is calculated on (close – open) / open rather than absolute prices, making the band width scale-agnostic.
Watch for tests of ±1:
Momentum traders ride the breakout with a target at the next band.
Mean-reversion traders wait for the first stall candle and trade back to zero line or VWAP.
Bottom line: Multi-Timeframe Standard-Deviations turns raw volatility math into an intuitive “price terrain map,” helping you instantly judge whether a move is ordinary, stretched, or extreme—across the time-frames that matter to you.
Original code by fadizeidan and stats by NQStats's ProbableChris.
