T3 Velocity [Loxx]T3 Velocity is a simple velocity indicator using T3 moving average that uses gradient colors to better identify trends.
What is the T3 moving average?
Better Moving Averages Tim Tillson
November 1, 1998
Tim Tillson is a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with degrees in Mathematics and Computer Science. He has privately traded options and equities for 15 years.
Introduction
"Digital filtering includes the process of smoothing, predicting, differentiating, integrating, separation of signals, and removal of noise from a signal. Thus many people who do such things are actually using digital filters without realizing that they are; being unacquainted with the theory, they neither understand what they have done nor the possibilities of what they might have done."
This quote from R. W. Hamming applies to the vast majority of indicators in technical analysis . Moving averages, be they simple, weighted, or exponential, are lowpass filters; low frequency components in the signal pass through with little attenuation, while high frequencies are severely reduced.
"Oscillator" type indicators (such as MACD , Momentum, Relative Strength Index ) are another type of digital filter called a differentiator.
Tushar Chande has observed that many popular oscillators are highly correlated, which is sensible because they are trying to measure the rate of change of the underlying time series, i.e., are trying to be the first and second derivatives we all learned about in Calculus.
We use moving averages (lowpass filters) in technical analysis to remove the random noise from a time series, to discern the underlying trend or to determine prices at which we will take action. A perfect moving average would have two attributes:
It would be smooth, not sensitive to random noise in the underlying time series. Another way of saying this is that its derivative would not spuriously alternate between positive and negative values.
It would not lag behind the time series it is computed from. Lag, of course, produces late buy or sell signals that kill profits.
The only way one can compute a perfect moving average is to have knowledge of the future, and if we had that, we would buy one lottery ticket a week rather than trade!
Having said this, we can still improve on the conventional simple, weighted, or exponential moving averages. Here's how:
Two Interesting Moving Averages
We will examine two benchmark moving averages based on Linear Regression analysis.
In both cases, a Linear Regression line of length n is fitted to price data.
I call the first moving average ILRS, which stands for Integral of Linear Regression Slope. One simply integrates the slope of a linear regression line as it is successively fitted in a moving window of length n across the data, with the constant of integration being a simple moving average of the first n points. Put another way, the derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. Note that ILRS is not the same as a SMA ( simple moving average ) of length n, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data.
We can measure the lag of moving averages with respect to a linear trend by computing how they behave when the input is a line with unit slope. Both SMA (n) and ILRS(n) have lag of n/2, but ILRS is much smoother than SMA .
Our second benchmark moving average is well known, called EPMA or End Point Moving Average. It is the endpoint of the linear regression line of length n as it is fitted across the data. EPMA hugs the data more closely than a simple or exponential moving average of the same length. The price we pay for this is that it is much noisier (less smooth) than ILRS, and it also has the annoying property that it overshoots the data when linear trends are present.
However, EPMA has a lag of 0 with respect to linear input! This makes sense because a linear regression line will fit linear input perfectly, and the endpoint of the LR line will be on the input line.
These two moving averages frame the tradeoffs that we are facing. On one extreme we have ILRS, which is very smooth and has considerable phase lag. EPMA has 0 phase lag, but is too noisy and overshoots. We would like to construct a better moving average which is as smooth as ILRS, but runs closer to where EPMA lies, without the overshoot.
A easy way to attempt this is to split the difference, i.e. use (ILRS(n)+EPMA(n))/2. This will give us a moving average (call it IE /2) which runs in between the two, has phase lag of n/4 but still inherits considerable noise from EPMA. IE /2 is inspirational, however. Can we build something that is comparable, but smoother? Figure 1 shows ILRS, EPMA, and IE /2.
Filter Techniques
Any thoughtful student of filter theory (or resolute experimenter) will have noticed that you can improve the smoothness of a filter by running it through itself multiple times, at the cost of increasing phase lag.
There is a complementary technique (called twicing by J.W. Tukey) which can be used to improve phase lag. If L stands for the operation of running data through a low pass filter, then twicing can be described by:
L' = L(time series) + L(time series - L(time series))
That is, we add a moving average of the difference between the input and the moving average to the moving average. This is algebraically equivalent to:
2L-L(L)
This is the Double Exponential Moving Average or DEMA , popularized by Patrick Mulloy in TASAC (January/February 1994).
In our taxonomy, DEMA has some phase lag (although it exponentially approaches 0) and is somewhat noisy, comparable to IE /2 indicator.
We will use these two techniques to construct our better moving average, after we explore the first one a little more closely.
Fixing Overshoot
An n-day EMA has smoothing constant alpha=2/(n+1) and a lag of (n-1)/2.
Thus EMA (3) has lag 1, and EMA (11) has lag 5. Figure 2 shows that, if I am willing to incur 5 days of lag, I get a smoother moving average if I run EMA (3) through itself 5 times than if I just take EMA (11) once.
This suggests that if EPMA and DEMA have 0 or low lag, why not run fast versions (eg DEMA (3)) through themselves many times to achieve a smooth result? The problem is that multiple runs though these filters increase their tendency to overshoot the data, giving an unusable result. This is because the amplitude response of DEMA and EPMA is greater than 1 at certain frequencies, giving a gain of much greater than 1 at these frequencies when run though themselves multiple times. Figure 3 shows DEMA (7) and EPMA(7) run through themselves 3 times. DEMA^3 has serious overshoot, and EPMA^3 is terrible.
The solution to the overshoot problem is to recall what we are doing with twicing:
DEMA (n) = EMA (n) + EMA (time series - EMA (n))
The second term is adding, in effect, a smooth version of the derivative to the EMA to achieve DEMA . The derivative term determines how hot the moving average's response to linear trends will be. We need to simply turn down the volume to achieve our basic building block:
EMA (n) + EMA (time series - EMA (n))*.7;
This is algebraically the same as:
EMA (n)*1.7-EMA( EMA (n))*.7;
I have chosen .7 as my volume factor, but the general formula (which I call "Generalized Dema") is:
GD (n,v) = EMA (n)*(1+v)-EMA( EMA (n))*v,
Where v ranges between 0 and 1. When v=0, GD is just an EMA , and when v=1, GD is DEMA . In between, GD is a cooler DEMA . By using a value for v less than 1 (I like .7), we cure the multiple DEMA overshoot problem, at the cost of accepting some additional phase delay. Now we can run GD through itself multiple times to define a new, smoother moving average T3 that does not overshoot the data:
T3(n) = GD ( GD ( GD (n)))
In filter theory parlance, T3 is a six-pole non-linear Kalman filter. Kalman filters are ones which use the error (in this case (time series - EMA (n)) to correct themselves. In Technical Analysis , these are called Adaptive Moving Averages; they track the time series more aggressively when it is making large moves.
Included:
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
M-oscillator
Smoothed Heikin Ashi Trend on Chart - TraderHalai BACKTESTSmoothed Heikin Ashi Trend on chart - Backtest
This is a backtest of the Smoothed Heikin Ashi Trend indicator, which computes the reverse candle close price required to flip a Heikin Ashi trend from red to green and vice versa. The original indicator can be found in the scripts section of my profile.
This particular back test uses this indicator with a Trend following paradigm with a percentage-based stop loss.
Note, that backtesting performance is not always indicative of future performance, but it does provide some basis for further development and walk-forward / live testing.
Testing was performed on Bitcoin , as this is a primary target market for me to use this kind of strategy.
Sample Backtesting results as of 10th June 2022:
Backtesting parameters:
Position size: 10% of equity
Long stop: 1% below entry
Short stop: 1% above entry
Repainting: Off
Smoothing: SMA
Period: 10
8 Hour:
Number of Trades: 1046
Gross Return: 249.27 %
CAGR Return: 14.04 %
Max Drawdown: 7.9 %
Win percentage: 28.01 %
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 2.019
Average Loss: 0.33 %
Average Win: 1.69 %
Average Time for Loss: 1 day
Average Time for Win: 5.33 days
1 Day:
Number of Trades: 429
Gross Return: 458.4 %
CAGR Return: 15.76 %
Max Drawdown: 6.37 %
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 2.804
Average Loss: 0.8 %
Average Win: 7.2 %
Average Time for Loss: 3 days
Average Time for Win: 16 days
5 Day:
Number of Trades: 69
Gross Return: 1614.9 %
CAGR Return: 26.7 %
Max Drawdown: 5.7 %
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 10.451
Average Loss: 3.64 %
Average Win: 81.17 %
Average Time for Loss: 15 days
Average Time for Win: 85 days
Analysis:
The strategy is typical amongst trend following strategies with a less regular win rate, but where profits are more significant than losses. Most of the losses are in sideways, low volatility markets. This strategy performs better on higher timeframes, where it shows a positive expectancy of the strategy.
The average win was positively impacted by Bitcoin’s earlier smaller market cap, as the percentage wins earlier were higher.
Overall the strategy shows potential for further development and may be suitable for walk-forward testing and out of sample analysis to be considered for a demo trading account.
Note in an actual trading setup, you may wish to use this with volatility filters, combined with support resistance zones for a better setup.
As always, this post/indicator/strategy is not financial advice, and please do your due diligence before trading this live.
Original indicator links:
On chart version -
Oscillator version -
Update - 27/06/2022
Unfortunately, It appears that the original script had been taken down due to auto-moderation because of concerns with no slippage / commission. I have since adjusted the backtest, and re-uploaded to include the following to address these concerns, and show that I am genuinely trying to give back to the community and not mislead anyone:
1) Include commission of 0.1% - to match Binance's maker fees prior to moving to a fee-less model.
2) Include slippage of 10 ticks (This is a realistic slippage figure from searching online for most crypto exchanges)
3) Adjust account balance to 10,000 - since most of us are not millionaires.
The rest of the backtesting parameters are comparable to previous results:
Backtesting parameters:
Initial capital: 10000 dollars
Position size: 10% of equity
Long stop: 2% below entry
Short stop: 2% above entry
Repainting: Off
Smoothing: SMA
Period: 10
Slippage: 10 ticks
Commission: 0.1%
This script still remains to shows viability / profitablity on higher term timeframes (with slightly higher drawdown), and I have included the backtest report below to document my findings:
8 Hour:
Number of Trades: 1082
Gross Return: 233.02%
CAGR Return: 14.04 %
Max Drawdown: 7.9 %
Win percentage: 25.6%
Profit Factor (Expectancy): 1.627
Average Loss: 0.46 %
Average Win: 2.18 %
Average Time for Loss: 1.33 day
Average Time for Win: 7.33 days
Once again, please do your own research and due dillegence before trading this live. This post is for education and information purposes only, and should not be taken as financial advice.
Carrey's Velocity and AccelerationThis is initially based on the MA Speed indicator from TradeStation () and expanded upon greatly. This implements 3 different variable MAs and calculates and plots both speed and acceleration of each. Also, a single line composite option is included for both speed and acceleration that changes color based on directional confluence of each MA's speed/acceleration. Additionally, optional labels are included to show where the 3 MAs are clustered, and a volatile move is expected, and where they are more distributed, expecting a temporary reversal.
The additional acceleration concept comes from kinematics in physics. Utilizing time-based derivatives, we can calculate the velocity and acceleration of the moving averages, which can help us identify momentum of price action and locate reversals sooner.
z_score_bgd
Z-score indicator for volatile currency pairs, showing STRONG BUY, BUY, SELL, STRONG SELL zones by shading the chart background.
---------------------------------
Background
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Based on mean reversion, a theory that after a swing in price the price will tend back to the mean. This offers some ability to predict future trends.
The formula for calculating a z-score is is z = (x-μ)/σ, where x is the pair price, μ is the mean for a population, and σ is the population standard deviation.
---------------------------------
Set up
---------------------------------
The user can define their own value for the "window" or population, which is the number of preceding days to evaluate. This value will affect the frequency and magnitude of trades, with higher "window" values reducing the frequency of reversions but increasing their magnitude.
Where the value for "window" is left at 99, the default values below will be applied in the background. Otherwise the user's selection will be in effect.
atombtc 18
avaxbtc 21
ethbtc 18
ftmbtc 11
maticbtc 11
solbtc 11
soleth 16
The default values above are intended for the daily time-frame.
---------------------------------
Interpreting the indicator
---------------------------------
Dark green -> large deviation below mean price (strong buy)
Green -> moderate deviation below mean price (buy)
Red -> moderate deviation below mean price (sell)
Dark red -> large deviation below mean price (strong sell)
Z-score is an imperfect indicator, as with all indiciators and trading decisions must be confirmed by multiple indicators and consider other factors.
Natural Market Mirror (NMM) and NMAs w/ Dynamic Zones [Loxx]Natural Market Mirror (NMM) and NMAs w/ Dynamic Zones is a very complex indicator derived from Sloman's Ocean Theory. This indicator contains 3 core outputs and those outputs, depending on the one you select to be used to crate a long/short signal, will be highlighted and bound by Dynamic Zones. Pre-smoothing of source input is available, you only need to increase the period length to greater than 1. The smoothing algorithm used here it's Ehlers Two-pole Super Smoother. This indicator should be used as you would use the popular QQE, the difference being this indicator is multi-level momentum adaptive, and QQE is fixed RSI-based. This indicator is multilayer adaptive.
The three core indicators calculations are as follows:
NMM = Natural Market Mirror, solid line
NMF = Natural Moving Average Fast, dashed line (white when off)
NMA = Natural Moving Average Regular, dashed line (yellow when off)
Whichever one you select to be used as the signal output base, that line with increased in width and change color to match the price inputted trend. The Dynamic Zones will then readjust around that selected output and form a new bounding zone for signal output.
What is the Ocean Natural Market Mirror?
Created by Jim Sloman, the NMA is a momentum indicator that automatically adjusts to volatility without being programed to do so. For more info, read his guide "Ocean Theory, an Introduction"
What is the Ocean Natural Moving Average?
Also created by Jim Sloman, the NMA is a moving average that automatically adjusts to volatility.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included
Bar coloring
3 types of signal output options
Alerts
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Price-Filtered Spearman Rank Correl. w/ Floating Levels [Loxx]Price-Filtered Spearman Rank Correl. w/ Floating Levels is a Spearman Rank Correlation indicator with optional source filtering and floating levels.
What is Spearman rank correlation?
Spearman rank correlation, also known as Spearman coefficient is a formula used to identify the strength of the link between two datasets. This coefficient is a method that can be used to assess the strength of a relationship apart from the direction it takes. The formula, named after Charles Spearman, a mathematician, can only be used in circumstances where data can be categorized or put in order, for instance, the highest to the lowest.
For a better understanding of Spearman coefficient, it helps to get a sense of what monotonic function means. There’s a monotonic relationship under these circumstances:
– When the variable values rise together.
– When one variable value rises the other variable value lowers.
– The rate of movement of the variables need not necessarily be constant.
The Spearman correlation coefficient or rs, between +1 and -1, where +1 indicates a perfect strength between variables, while zero shows no association and -1 shows a perfect negative strength.
Spearman rank correlation theory:
A nonparametric (distribution-free) rank statistic proposed by Spearman in 1904 as a measure of the strength of the associations between two variables (Lehmann and D'Abrera 1998). The Spearman rank correlation coefficient can be used to give an R-estimate, and is a measure of monotone association that is used when the distribution of the data make Pearson's correlation coefficient undesirable or misleading.
Included:
Zero-line and signal cross options for bar coloring, signals, and alerts
Alerts
3 Signal types
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Dynamic Zone Range on PDFMA [Loxx]Dynamic Zone Range on PDFMA is a Probability Density Function Moving Average oscillator with Dynamic Zones.
What is Probability Density Function?
Probability density function based MA is a sort of weighted moving average that uses probability density function to calculate the weights.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included
4 signal types
Bar coloring
Alerts
Channels fill
Dynamic Zone Range on OMA [Loxx]Dynamic Zone Range on OMA is an One More Moving Average oscillator with Dynamic Zones.
What is the One More Moving Average (OMA)?
The usual story goes something like this : which is the best moving average? Everyone that ever started to do any kind of technical analysis was pulled into this "game". Comparing, testing, looking for new ones, testing ...
The idea of this one is simple: it should not be itself, but it should be a kind of a chameleon - it should "imitate" as much other moving averages as it can. So the need for zillion different moving averages would diminish. And it should have some extra, of course:
The extras:
it has to be smooth
it has to be able to "change speed" without length change
it has to be able to adapt or not (since it has to "imitate" the non-adaptive as well as the adaptive ones)
The steps:
Smoothing - compared are the simple moving average (that is the basis and the first step of this indicator - a smoothed simple moving average with as little lag added as it is possible and as close to the original as it is possible) Speed 1 and non-adaptive are the reference for this basic setup.
Speed changing - same chart only added one more average with "speeds" 2 and 3 (for comparison purposes only here)
Finally - adapting : same chart with SMA compared to one more average with speed 1 but adaptive (so this parameters would make it a "smoothed adaptive simple average") Adapting part is a modified Kaufman adapting way and this part (the adapting part) may be a subject for changes in the future (it is giving satisfactory results, but if or when I find a better way, it will be implemented here)
Some comparisons for different speed settings (all the comparisons are without adaptive turned on, and are approximate. Approximation comes from a fact that it is impossible to get exactly the same values from only one way of calculation, and frankly, I even did not try to get those same values).
speed 0.5 - T3 (0.618 Tilson)
speed 2.5 - T3 (0.618 Fulks/Matulich)
speed 1 - SMA , harmonic mean
speed 2 - LWMA
speed 7 - very similar to Hull and TEMA
speed 8 - very similar to LSMA and Linear regression value
Parameters:
Length - length (period) for averaging
Source - price to use for averaging
Speed - desired speed (i limited to -1.5 on the lower side but it even does not need that limit - some interesting results with speeds that are less than 0 can be achieved)
Adaptive - does it adapt or not
Variety Moving Averages w/ Dynamic Zones contains 33 source types and 35+ moving averages with double dynamic zones levels.
What are Dynamic Zones?
As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl"
Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator.
One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem.
Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system.
An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader.
To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition:
Find V such that:
For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1
For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2
where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone.
The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory.
Calculating the Dynamic Zones
The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone.
For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone.
In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone.
Included
4 signal types
Bar coloring
Alerts
Channels fill
z_scoreStand-alone Z-score indicator for volatile currency pairs, showing STRONG BUY, BUY, SELL, STRONG SELL zones.
The use can define their own "window" or moving average length, which will affect the frequency and magnitude of trades.
Higher windows reduce trade size but increase frequency and vice versa.
The suggested window values are intended for the daily time-frame. They are selected to maximise returns.
ETHBTC . 64 days.
SOLBTC . 40 days.
Trading decisions must be confirmed by multiple indicators and other factors.
HARKAT momentombest indicator for momentom and movement
in btcusdt 15 min just harkat above 1 indicates movment in market
in bearish or bullish trend
Larry Williams Large Trade Index (LWTI) [Loxx]Larry Williams Large Trade Index (LWTI) is an indicatory by Larry Williams as explained in his book "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report". I've added optional smoothing if you wish to smooth the output.
What is the Larry Williams Large Trade Index (LWTI)?
The original concept was specifically based on Trader (or Market) Sentiment and predicting market reversals. It's calculated as follows:
MovingAvg(Close - Close , bars used in average)/MovingAvg(Range,bars used in average)*50 + 50
Included
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Larry Williams Proxy Index (LWPI) [Loxx]Larry Williams Proxy Index (LWPI) is an indicatory by Larry Williams as explained in his book "Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report", pages 129-135. This is an INVERSE indicator, so follow the signals and colors to understand what it's doing. I've added optional smoothing if you wish to smooth the output.
What is the Larry Williams Proxy Index (LWPI)?
The original concept was specifically based on Trader (or Market) Sentiment and predicting market reversals. It's calculated as follows:
MovingAvg(Open-Close, bars used in average)/MovingAvg(Range, bars used in average)*50+50
Included
Bar coloring
Signals
Alerts
Smoothed RSI Heikin Ashi Oscillator w/ Expanded Types [Loxx]Smoothed RSI Heikin-Ashi Oscillator w/ Expanded Types is a spin on Heikin Ashi RSI Oscillator by @JayRogers. The purpose of this modification is to reduce noise in the original version thereby increasing suitability of the signal output. This indicator is tuned for Forex markets.
Differences:
35+ Smoothing Options for RSI
35+ Smoothing Options for HA Candles
Heiken-Ashi Better Expanded Source input. This source input is use for the RSI calculation only.
Signals
Alerts
What are Heiken-Ashi "better" candles?
The "better formula" was proposed in an article/memo by BNP-Paribas (In Warrants & Zertifikate, No. 8, August 2004 (a monthly German magazine published by BNP Paribas, Frankfurt), there is an article by Sebastian Schmidt about further development (smoothing) of Heikin-Ashi chart.)
They proposed to use the following :
(Open+Close)/2+(((Close-Open)/( High-Low ))*ABS((Close-Open)/2))
instead of using :
haClose = (O+H+L+C)/4
According to that document the HA representation using their proposed formula is better than the traditional formula.
What are traditional Heiken-Ashi candles?
The Heikin-Ashi technique averages price data to create a Japanese candlestick chart that filters out market noise.
Heikin-Ashi charts, developed by Munehisa Homma in the 1700s, share some characteristics with standard candlestick charts but differ based on the values used to create each candle. Instead of using the open, high, low, and close like standard candlestick charts, the Heikin-Ashi technique uses a modified formula based on two-period averages. This gives the chart a smoother appearance, making it easier to spots trends and reversals, but also obscures gaps and some price data.
Future updates
Expand signal options to include RSI-, Zero-, and color-crosses
Stochastic Slow and OBV Percent Oscillator
Purpose - Stochastic is the best momentum indicator and On Balance Volume (OBV) is the best volume indicator. Why not combine both to come up with a more sophisticated oscillator?
How It's Done - I had to put OBV as an oscillator (returning values between 0 and 100) in order to put it in the same pane with the slow stochastic oscillator. Otherwise, their synergy won't be that great. So, I have decided to visualize OBV as a percentage relative to selected period's high and low value. That way, I can keep the OBV value to stay within boundary.
Interpretation
1. Dot color indicates the whether the stochastic K/OBV is over or below the stochastic D/Signal line.
2. When Stoch and OBV are moving in the same direction and are close together (on top of each other), this indicates a strong trend
3. When Stoch crosses up or down the OBV oscillator, it may indicate a trend reversal
electroNIK - Stoch-RSIThis is a script which will add Stochastic RSI on your graphs, supporting all timeframes
Daily_Mid Term_Consulting BOLTDaily Mid Term Consulting BOLT es una estrategia a mediano y largo plazo creada para detectar los cambios tendenciales en zonas de tiempo diarias. se basa en el análisis de los cambios porcentuales que sufre el precio contra las distintas medias móviles simples definidas en la estrategia. el uso de osciladores como el MACD , RSI y EFI apoyan la decisión de entrada a la estrategia.
actualmente esta en construcción la colocación de stop losses para aumentar la eectividad de la misma.
Vortex Indicator with Index LinesAdds centerline at "1.0" and reference lines at"1.1" and "0.9". These lines allow the trader to recognize strength, volatility, and momentum at a glance. VI+ or VI- lines above the "1.0" (centerline) may be considered a "Confirmed" trend.
MASIG#2this indicator founded from easy combined
1.EMA
2.ATR/Supertrend
3.ADX/DI+DI-
4.MACD
5.Dochian
6.OBV
and show by line label and background
All TimeFrame OscillatorsI have always fighted to understand the market direction because it looks different on different timeframes.
I wanted an indicator where I can see all the different timeframes at once.
This indicator shows already existing oscillators but not only in the current chart's timeframe, but all the most important higer timeframes at once.
I have started with the stoch, then added as many oscillators as I could.
Experimenting with this I have saw that confluence of 4H 1D and 1W Stoch can be very interesting and can highlight higher timeframe take profit areas and sometimes major tops/bottoms.
Also bounces can be interesting when a lower timeframe stoch is bounced or rejected from a higher one.
Oscillators:
Stoch - Stochastic Oscillator
SMI - Stochastic Momentum Index
Rsi - Relative Strength Index
StochRsi - Stochastic RSI
WaveTrend - Vumanchu alias Market Cypher Wave Trend line
CCI - Commodity Channel Index
CCIStoch - Stochastic CCI
Williams Percent Range - Williams %R
Norm. MACD - Normalized Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Norm. MACD Hist - Normalized MACD Histogramm
PVT - Normalized Price Volume Trend
MFI - Money Flow Index
CMF - Chaikin Money Flow
Chande Momentum - Chande Momentum
Volume - Normalized Volume
CandleValue - Vumanchu alias Market Cypher MoneyFlow
BBWP - Bollinger Band Width Percentile
Line Type
Smooth: lines are smoothed, but the actualy not closed values are not shown
Step: Step lines, the actually open timeframes are calculated as they closed at the current values
Plot Oscillator or it's Slope:
its possible to not plot the oscillator but it's slope
Print dots when:
Cross Up/Down oversold/overbougt level - best for most oscillators. for example when Stoch crosses above 20 or below 80
Cross os/ob and the one higher TF is about to cross - when it's crosses beolw 80 and the higher timeframe oscillator is still above ans sloping down
Cross above/below middle line - for example on RSI being above or below 50 can be interesting
Print triangles when:
All Slope Match - all visible timeframe lines are pointing up or down at the same time
All above/belove middle line - all visible lines are above or belove the middle line
All above/belove middle line and slope match - like the previous one and the slope direction is the same
All above/below oversold/overbougt - all lines are above or below os/ ob. this is the default. it can be a very important confluence
Lower TF in order - 5, 15, 30, 60 minute timeframes are in order.
Higher TF in order - 4H 1D 1W in order (like 4H above 1D abd 1D above 1W). can be interesting at RSI
4H-1D in order - 4H 1D in order .
Print triangles
Print all triangles - print all triangles when the condition is met
Print only first triangles - only show when the condition starts to met
Print only last triangles - small triangles when the condition met first, large when last. tis is the default.
Timeframes to show:
You can turn on/off different timeframs to show or not from the list below:
1m 5m 15m 30m 1H 4H D 5D W M
This is for experimenting/ understanding the market direction on multiple timeframes at once.
Don't take it's signals (and any other indicator's) as exact trade signals. use it as confirmation instead.
Any comments, insights, ideas are welcome.
Plot the close-spread relationship between two price seriesThis indicator plots the close-spread relationship between two price series by calculating the change across two price series as a spread for each. Each spread is the rate of change in yesterday's closing price and the prior day's closing price. By default, weekend prices are defined to be 0.0 but can be included as user-definable input, if required.
User input:
Symbol for price series 1 - defaults to BITFINEX:BTCUSD
Symbol for price series 2 - defaults to NASDAQ:NDX
Market session time (string) - defaults to 00:00 to 23:59
Timezone - defaults to UTC-4
TASC 2022.08 Trading The Fear Index█ OVERVIEW
TASC's August 2022 edition of Traders' Tips includes an article by Markos Katsanos titled "Trading The Fear Index". This script implements a trading strategy called the “daily long/short trading system for volatility ETFs” presented in this article.
█ CONCEPTS
This long-term strategy aims to capitalize on stock market volatility by using exchange-traded funds (ETFs or ETNs) linked to the VIX index.
The strategy rules (see below) are based on a combination of the movement of the Cboe VIX index, the readings of the stochastic oscillator applied to the SPY ETF relative to the VIX, and a custom indicator presented in the article and called the correlation trend . Thus, they are not based on the price movement of the traded ETF itself, but rather on the movement of the VIX and of the S&P 500 index. This allows the strategy to capture most of the spikes in volatility while profiting from the long-term time decay of the traded ETFs.
█ STRATEGY RULES
Long rules
Rising volatility: The VIX should rise by more than 50% in the last 6 days.
Trend: The correlation trend of the VIX should be 0.8 or higher and also higher than yesterday's value.
VIX-SPY relative position: The 25-day and 10-day VIX stochastics should be above the 25-day and 10-day SPY stochastics respectively. In addition, the 10-day stochastic of the VIX should be above its yesterday's value.
Long positions are closed if the 10-day stochastic of the SPY rises above the 10-day stochastic of the VIX or falls below the yesterday's value.
Short rules
Declining volatility: The VIX should drop over 20% in the last 6 days and should be down during the last 3 days.
VIX threshold: The VIX should spend less than 35% of time below 15.
VIX-SPY relative position: The 10-day VIX stochastic should be below the 10-day SPY stochastic. In addition, the 10-day SPY stochastic should be higher than the yesterday's value.
Long positions are closed if the first two Long rules are triggered (Rising volatility and Trend).
The script allows you to display the readings of the indicators used in the strategy rules in the form of oscillator time series (as in the preview chart) and/or in the form of a table.
Dynamic StochasticThis indicator brings the stochastic calculation on a separeted chart to the price chart. A new way to see the stochastic position, with the line levels moving in relation to the price. There is a second stochastic as well giving to the trader a more complete analisys to evaluate the oportunities to trade.
You can set the two periods of the first and second stochastic.
You can set the levels od superior, midle and inferior levels.
You can set the width or number of bars to show (NB1 and NB2).
As default P1 = 50, P2 = 200, Superior level = 80(%), Mid level = 50 (%), Inferior level = 20(%).
Number of Bars 1 NB1 = 10
Number of Bars 2 NB2 = 20
Andean OscillatorThe following script is an original creation originally posted on the blog section of the broker Alpaca.
The proposed indicator aims to measure the degree of variations of individual up-trends and down-trends in the price, thus allowing to highlight the direction and amplitude of a current trend.
Settings
Length : Determines the significance of the trends degree of variations measured by the indicator.
Signal Length : Moving average period of the signal line.
Usage
The Andean Oscillator can return multiple information to the user, with its core interpretation revolving around the bull and bear components.
A rising bull component (in green) indicates the presence of bullish price variations while a rising bear component (in red) indicates the presence of bearish price variations.
When the bull component is over the bear component market is up-trending, and the user can expect new higher highs. When the bear component is over the bull component market is down-trending, and the user can expect new lower lows.
The signal line (in orange) allows a more developed interpretation of the indicator and can be used in several ways.
It is possible to use it to filter out potential false signals given by the crosses between the bullish and bearish components. As such the user might want to enter a position once the bullish or bearish component crosses over the signal line instead.
Details
Measuring the degree of variations of trends in the price by their direction (up-trend/down-trend) can be done in several way.
The approach taken by the proposed indicator makes use of exponential envelopes and the naive computation of standard deviation.
First, exponential envelopes are obtained from both the regular prices and squared prices, thus giving two upper extremities, and two lower extremities.
The bullish component is obtained by first subtracting the upper extremity of the squared prices with the squared upper extremity of regular prices, the square root is then applied to this result.
The bearish component is obtained in the same way, but makes use of the lower extremities of the exponential envelopes.
