CM Volume Projection Indicator with ATR

CM Volume Projection Indicator (Intrabar Volume Estimation)
What this indicator does

The CM Volume Projection Indicator is an intrabar volume analysis tool designed to estimate where total volume is likely to finish before the current candle closes, using elapsed time, historical volume behaviour, and volatility context.

Unlike standard volume bars—which only display completed volume—this indicator updates in real time during the candle, allowing traders to assess whether volume is expanding, contracting, or deviating from recent norms before the bar closes.

The script plots:

• Actual traded volume
  
• A time-scaled volume projection
  
• A dynamically adjusted projection that accounts for abnormal volume conditions
  
• A short-period volume moving average for context

How it works (conceptual overview)
This script combines time-based scaling, historical comparison, and adaptive constraints to produce intrabar volume estimates.

1. Elapsed-time volume scaling

• As a candle forms, the script calculates:
  
• The total timeframe duration (in minutes)
  
• How much of the candle has already elapsed

Current volume is then scaled proportionally to estimate a full-bar projection.
This answers the question: “If volume continues at the current pace, where would this candle likely close?”

This forms the base (original) projection.

2. Historical volume comparison

To avoid misleading projections, the script compares:

• Current volume
  
• Historical average volume (user-defined lookback)
  
• Volume from the previous candle adjusted to the same elapsed-time point

This comparison produces:

• A relative volume factor
  
• An intrabar volume change percentage, showing whether current activity is accelerating or slowing compared to the previous bar at the same moment in time

3. Adaptive adjustment logic
The adjusted projection modifies the base estimate using:

Spike detection
If current volume exceeds a percentage of historical average, a spike factor increases responsiveness.

Low-volume dampening
If volume is below average, projections are reduced to prevent overestimation.

Remaining-time weighting
As the candle nears completion, a squared time factor reduces aggressive extrapolation.

Volatility context
Volume standard deviation is used to soften projections during unstable volume regimes.

Dynamic caps
A user-defined remaining-time threshold limits projection growth late in the candle to prevent unrealistic spikes.

These components work together to balance responsiveness early in the bar with stability near candle close.

Plots and visual output

Actual Volume
Displayed as columns, colored by candle direction. Transparency adapts to volume relative to its recent average.

Original Projection
A faint column representing linear time-based extrapolation of current volume.

Adjusted Projection
A histogram reflecting volume projections after historical, volatility, and time-based adjustments.

Volume Moving Average
Short-period SMA or EMA (user-selectable) for contextual comparison.

Optional labels can display:

• Projection values
  
• Volume change percentage
  
• ATR value
  
• Elapsed time diagnostics (for users who want to understand intrabar behaviour)

How traders can use it

This indicator is intended as a decision-support tool, not a standalone signal.

Common use cases include:

• Identifying early volume expansion or exhaustion before candle close
  
• Confirming whether breakouts are gaining participation in real time
  
• Comparing current volume behaviour against recent norms during fast markets
  
• Filtering low-quality moves where projected volume fails to confirm price action
  
• The indicator is timeframe-agnostic and adapts automatically to the chart’s resolution

Inputs and customization
All parameters are adjustable from the settings panel, including:

• Historical averaging length
  
• Spike sensitivity
  
• Projection caps
  
• Minimum adjustment limits
  
• Moving average type and length
  
• Visual display toggles
  
• No additional indicators are required.
  

Important notes

• This script does not predict future price, only estimates potential volume completion.
  
• Projections update intrabar and may change as new trades occur.
  
• Volume behaviour varies significantly across markets and sessions

Always use proper risk management and confirm volume insights with your broader trading framework.