Confidence Intervals

26. Feb. 2019

This indicator allows you to be able to see the confidence intervals for whatever asset you are trading given a certain expiry. Confidence intervals project the most probable price ranges over a certain period of time in the future.

In order to use this you must first specify what expiry you want to use in days, so if you want to project the confidence interval 1 day out you would input 1, if you want 1 year out you'd input 252 (the number of trading days in 1 year), if you want 12hrs out you'd input 0.5.

Next you must specify what timeframe you are using on your chart in minutes, so if you're using 5 min chart you'd input 5, if you're using 4hr you'd input 240, if you're using daily charts you'd use 1440.

Finally you must input what standard deviation you want to use for the confidence range.

Confidence levels are really helpful in trading, especially for options, because it allows you to be able to choose a more strategic expiry based on probabilities. In other types of trading such as stocks, futures, and FX confidence levels can be helpful in helping you better plan out your trade by figuring out where price probably will and will not go given a certain period of time in the future. Additionally, confidence levels allow you to be able to visualize volatility expansion and contraction.

Standard Deviation Probabilities:

• 0.5 STD has a 99% of touching the bounds of the interval and a 50% chance of closing beyond the bounds (these probabilities are not predicated on a certain direction, if you pick a certain direction divide these probabilities by 2)
  
  
• 1 STD has a 64% of touching the bounds of the interval and a ~30-32% chance of closing beyond the bounds (these probabilities are not predicated on a certain direction, if you pick a certain direction divide these probabilities by 2)
  
  
• 1.6 STD has a ~40% of touching the bounds of the interval and a ~20% chance of closing beyond the bounds (these probabilities are not predicated on a certain direction, if you pick a certain direction divide these probabilities by 2)
  
  
• 2 STD has a ~10% of touching the bounds of the interval and a ~5% chance of closing beyond the bounds (these probabilities are not predicated on a certain direction, if you pick a certain direction divide these probabilities by 2)
  
  
• 3 STD has a <2% of touching the bounds of the interval and a <1% chance of closing beyond the bounds (these probabilities are not predicated on a certain direction, if you pick a certain direction divide these probabilities by 2)