Volumetrix Mean Reversion [by Oberlunar]

VolumeTRIX Mean Reversion is a volume-oriented mean-reversion and confirmation indicator built around one core principle: reversal opportunities become higher quality when “price stretch” is not just visible on one feed, but confirmed across venues and supported by internal market pressure.

Mean reversion is often explained with the “rubber band” metaphor, but in real trading, it’s more concrete than that. When price runs too far from a working equilibrium, the market tends to accumulate imbalances: liquidity gets thin in spots, inventories get skewed, and positioning becomes one-sided. Very often, the next meaningful move is not continuation, but a repair move—price coming back toward areas where business was actually done. That doesn’t mean the market must revert every time. It means that when displacement becomes extreme, reversion becomes *plausible*, and sometimes structurally incentivised.

This is why Volumetrix does not treat a single overbought/oversold trigger as a trade. It treats mean reversion as a multi-factor event that needs alignment.

The first pillar is multi-venue consensus. The script can track the same instrument across up to five brokers/exchanges and look for agreement. In crypto and CFDs, a large portion of “signals” are simply microstructure artefacts: isolated wicks, temporary dislocations, exchange-specific liquidity holes, short-lived imbalances.

I believe that a stretch that shows up on one venue may be noise; a stretch that shows up across venues at the same time is far more likely to be structural.

The second pillar is how the indicator defines “stretch.” Volumetrix intentionally blends different families of mean-reversion logic because each one captures a different way markets deviate from equilibrium. Statistical displacement (think Z-score) asks how far the price has moved away from its recent average in volatility units. Anchored equilibrium (VWAP) asks whether the price is trading away from a fair value built on *where volume actually traded*.

Volatility envelopes (Keltner-style bands) translate stretch into something regime-aware: what is “far” in a quiet market is not “far” in a fast one. None of these views is perfect alone, but together they describe displacement in a much more robust way than a single oscillator.

Then comes the part most traders miss: mean reversion is not just a distance problem, it’s a *regime* problem. That is where the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck idea matters. OU is the textbook mean-reverting process: deviations don’t just wander, they tend to be pulled back toward an equilibrium, and the strength of that pull defines how “elastic” the market feels. In trading terms, some environments punish deviations quickly; other environments reward drift and make reversals late and painful.

VolumeTRIX Mean Reversion uses an OU-style bias to estimate that temperament, so the script is not only asking “are we stretched?”, but also “does this market currently behave like it wants to revert, or like it’s comfortable drifting?”

From there, Volumetrix combines four perspectives (the “lanes”) into a single directional decision. The mean-reversion trust lane quantifies stretch and converts it into a normalised confidence. The OU lane adds the regime lens—how mean-reverting the market appears right now. TRIX adds momentum context because fading a move while momentum is still expanding is one of the fastest ways to get chopped up. Finally, the volumetric pressure gate looks at internal buy/sell pressure and asks a practical question: is the move still being *defended*, or is dominance starting to fade?

The real edge is not in any one component. The edge is in how they are forced to agree. Volumetrix allows you to determine the level of strictness in the agreement (All / Majority / Any). That’s an ensemble approach: each lane can be wrong, but they tend to be mistaken in different conditions. When multiple independent views of the market line up, you’re filtering for moments where the signal is less likely to be random and more likely to reflect an actual imbalance that can unwind.

So the question I'm trying to answer with this indicator is simple, and trader-practical: “Are we stretched across venues, is the current regime compatible with reversion (OU-style), is momentum no longer dominating (TRIX), and is volume pressure no longer supporting continuation?” When those answers align, the odds of a usable reversal improve.

Operationally, signals print only on confirmed bars and are hard-constrained to the most liquid global sessions (London and US), because mean-reversion quality tends to degrade in thin windows and produce low-quality signals.

The indicator also includes an internal forward-stat tracker that estimates how often signals reach a reasonable target move within a maximum number of bars. It is not a strategy backtest, and it doesn’t simulate compounding; it’s a calibration tool to compare settings and understand expectancy behaviour without guessing.

As always, this is an indicator, not financial advice. Mean reversion can fail hard in expansion regimes, so risk management and context always come first.

Enjoy!

Oberlunar 👁★