Blockcircle GLS - Global Liquidity Scorecard

OVERVIEW

The BLOCKCIRCLE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SCORECARD(GLS) is a professional-grade macro liquidity monitoring system built for traders who base positioning decisions on monetary conditions. The simplest application involves tracking the global M2 money supply forward projected 10 to 14 weeks, which provides a reasonably accurate forecast of risk asset price direction like BTC or leading Tier 1 stocks. This scorecard helps you identify whether monetary conditions support risk-on or risk-off positioning across short and long timeframes.

HOW TO USE IT

• When net liquidity is positive and rising with green signals, when M2 is expanding, and when the majority of central banks are easing, consider long positional bias with expectations of rising asset prices.
  
• When net liquidity is negative or falling with red signals, when M2 is contracting, and when central banks are tightening, consider defensive positioning or short bias with expectations of declining asset prices.
  
• Use the forward projected M2 overlay to anticipate where Bitcoin and S&P 500 prices may trend in the coming weeks.
  
• Monitor the funding rate section for stress signals that often precede major market moves.
  
• Watch the automated regime detection status which classifies conditions as CRITICAL, TIGHT, NEUTRAL, or AMPLE based on rate relationships.
  

WHAT MAKES IT ORIGINAL AND DIFFERENT

This is not a simple M2 chart overlay. The GLS aggregates liquidity data from seven major economies, converts everything to USD using live FX rates, and calculates US Net Liquidity using the formula (Fed Balance Sheet minus RRP minus TGA). The scorecard normalizes all metrics across timeframes with multi-period percentage changes at 1P, 2P, 3P, 5P, 10P, 20P, and 50P intervals, giving you trend strength context that single-value displays cannot provide.

The proprietary Monetary Policy Scorecard evaluates each major central bank on a 0 to 100 scale based on balance sheet and money supply changes, then aggregates a global score. This lets you see at a glance whether worldwide policy is easing, neutral, or tightening.

The automated liquidity regime detection for short-term funding rates classifies conditions as CRITICAL, TIGHT, NEUTRAL, or AMPLE based on the relationship between SOFR, IORB, and Fed Funds boundaries.


The dashboard presents all data in a unified scorecard format with color-coded percentage changes, moving average comparisons, status classifications, and signal indicators for each metric. This consolidation eliminates the need to monitor multiple separate indicators or data sources.

CORE LIQUIDITY METRICS

• Global M2 Money Supply aggregated from US, EU, Japan, China, UK, Canada, and Australia with live USD conversion.
  
• Global Central Bank Balance Sheet tracking across all major economies.
  
• US Net Liquidity calculation providing the critical liquidity measure that correlates with risk asset performance.
  
• Reverse Repo (RRP) monitoring showing cash parked at the Fed and its drain rate.
  
• Treasury General Account (TGA) tracking government spending and building patterns.
  
• Multi-period percentage change columns showing momentum across 1P through 50P timeframes.
  

SHORT-TERM FUNDING RATE MONITORING

• Overnight Lending Rate (SOFR) displayed as the white line on the chart with real-time values.
  
• 30-Day Lending Rate Average for smoothed trend analysis.
  
• Bank Reserve Rate (IORB) serving as the Fed anchor rate shown in pink.
  
• Fed Rate Ceiling and Floor boundaries visualized as the blue-filled corridor on the chart.
  
• Actual Fed Rate (EFFR) showing where rates actually trade.
  
• Automated regime classification displayed in the STATUS column based on rate relationships.
  

FED OPERATIONS TRACKING

• Fed Emergency Lending (Standing Repo Facility) usage as a stress indicator with DORMANT, ACTIVE, ELEVATED, or HIGH STRESS classification.
  
• Fed Treasury Holdings showing bond portfolio changes with ADDING or DRAINING status.
  
• Fed Total Assets for overall balance sheet direction.
  
• Dollar Strength Index with inverted signal logic for liquidity interpretation.
  

MONETARY POLICY SCORECARD

• Individual country scores for US, Japan, EU, China, and UK on a 0 to 100 scale displayed in the VALUE column.
  
• Scoring based on 3-period changes in both central bank balance sheets and M2 money supply.
  
• Global aggregate score highlighted with EASING, NEUTRAL, or TIGHTENING classification.
  
• Multi-period percentage changes for each country to identify acceleration or deceleration in policy stance.
  

MARKET AND RATIO ANALYSIS

• Bitcoin, Total Crypto, and S&P 500 market cap tracking with BULLISH, BEARISH, or NEUTRAL trend classification.
  
• BTC/M2 Ratio showing Bitcoin performance relative to money supply growth with OUTPERFORM or UNDERPERFORM status.
  
• SP500/M2 Ratio for equity valuation against liquidity expansion.
  
• Liquidity Velocity measuring how efficiently money supply translates to net liquidity with OVERHEATING, NORMAL, or SLUGGISH classification.
  

CONFIGURABLE ALERTS ENGINE

• Net Liquidity vs MA alerts with customizable operators including crosses above, crosses below, and threshold comparisons.
  
• Fed Balance Sheet consecutive increase or decrease alerts over configurable periods.
  
• RRP threshold alerts for drain completion monitoring.
  
• TGA change percentage alerts for spending or building events.
  
• M2 growth acceleration or deceleration alerts.
  
• SOFR above IORB alert for tight liquidity conditions.
  
• SOFR above Fed Funds ceiling alert for critical stress conditions.
  

CHART PLOTTING OPTIONS

• Toggle individual plots for all liquidity metrics, funding rates, market caps, and ratios.
  
• Forward projected M2 overlay with configurable week offset from 0 to 52 weeks.
  
• Fed Funds corridor visualization with filled area between ceiling and floor as shown in the blue shaded region.
  
• Automatic end-of-chart labels showing current values for all active plots.
  

DASHBOARD CONFIGURATION

• Adjustable table position with options for all corners and middle positions.
  
• Text size options from tiny to large for different screen configurations.
  
• Toggle visibility for each section independently, including Liquidity Metrics, Short-Term Funding, Fed Operations, Market Prices, Monetary Policies, Liquidity Ratios, and Summary.
  
• Select which countries to include in global M2 and central bank balance sheet aggregations.
  
• Choose between SMA and EMA for all moving average calculations with configurable length.
  

SUMMARY PANEL

The GLS Summary section at the bottom of the dashboard provides a consolidated view combining liquidity trend, funding conditions, policy stance, and market sentiment into a single status line. Below that, plain-language interpretations explain whether the Fed is adding or draining liquidity, whether cash is returning to or exiting markets via RRP, and whether Treasury is spending or building reserves.

LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS

• Economic data updates on varying schedules. M2 data is typically monthly, central bank balance sheets are weekly, and funding rates are daily. The indicator uses the most recent available data point.
  
• FX conversion introduces some noise during periods of extreme currency volatility.
  
• Forward M2 projection is a time-shifted overlay of historical data, not a predictive model. It works because liquidity changes tend to lead asset prices by several weeks, but this relationship is not guaranteed.
  
• The Monetary Policy Score is a simplified heuristic. Actual central bank policy involves many factors beyond balance sheet and M2 changes.
  
• Past correlations between liquidity and asset prices do not guarantee future results.
  

RECOMMENDED TIMEFRAMES

The scorecard is designed for macro analysis on daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Shorter timeframes are meant to track short-term funding rates daily, and the other fields will show the same underlying data but may not provide additional signal value given the update frequency of economic and quantitative data sources.