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Mxwll OptAlgo
Introducing the Mxwll OptAlgo
Mxwll OptAlgo is a sophisticated algorithmic trading tool designed to identify potential long and short signals. It leverages an optimized combination of the M-Swift average, M-Smooth average, and M-RSI to fine-tune custom lengths and improve signal accuracy. The Mxwll OptAlgo provides long and short signals across various trading assets and timeframes. Additionally, it features optimized Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) settings to help traders manage risk.
Key Features
How It Works
The Mxwll OptAlgo is comprised of three strategies:
Mxwll OptAlgo can be used for market analysis and trading similarly to any moving average.
The Mxwll OptAlgo MA is composed of two distinct moving averages to be used for trend following strategies.
M-Swift Average: The M-Swift Average accounts for volume and weights current price movement heavier than older price movement - allowing for improved responsiveness to current price movement. Volume is additionally weighted to the average to determine the significance of the price move and the resulting response of the M-Swift average. The M-Swift average consists of an HVWMA with OBV weighting. The HVWMA is used to create a moving average that adapts to volume, attempting to respond to significant price moves with high volume quicker and significant price moves with low volume slower - which might not be indicative of the start of a strong trend. To further reduce the M-Swift average’s responsiveness to weak volume price moves, the average is weighted with a normalized OBV. With this, the M-Swift moving average uses these two indicators to create a responsive moving average to significant price moves with high volume.
M-Smooth Average: The M-Smooth average consists of a McGinley average.
The McGinley Average is designed to address some of the limitations of traditional moving averages, such as the Simple Moving Average (SMA) or Exponential Moving Average (EMA), by reducing their lag and more accurately reflecting the market's true movements, especially during periods of volatility.
The McGinley Dynamic automatically adjusts its smoothing factor based on market speed. This means it responds more quickly to fast-moving markets and slows down during periods of consolidation, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
Unlike traditional moving averages that have a fixed period and can lag significantly behind fast-moving prices, the McGinley Dynamic adjusts dynamically, which helps to reduce lag and keeps the moving average closer to the price action.
The M-Smooth average uses bar low prices as a series during an uptrend - bar high prices as a series during a downtrend. A cross above the M-Smooth average indicates an uptrend, while a cross below the M-Smooth average indicates a downtrend. When this cross event occurs the M-Smooth average will “flip” from calculating on lows to highs, or highs to lows, contingent on the direction of the trend. The expectation is that a cross event of the M-Smooth average requires a substantial price move and, subsequent to this cross, price will continue to trend in the direction of the cross.
OptAlgo: The OptAlgo is simply the average of the M-Swift average and the M-smooth average.
By combining the M-Swift average and the M-Smooth average, the final output results in an average that slows during ranging markets and quickly adjusts to high volume breakouts and high volume reversals that initiate a trend. Due to the combination, the average will keep up quickly with a trend but remain at an appropriate distance from the current price - requiring a significant counter trend price move to change the direction of the OptAlgo average.
How does the OptAlgo follow trends?
The OptAlgo, comprising the two moving averages above, considers a cross event of the OptAlgo as a change in trend indication. The OptAlgo can be thought of as a moving average that significantly deviates from price. For price to cross the OptAlgo, a substantial price move must occur, and this event is treated as a "strong trend" or "new trend" indication.
M-RSI: The M-RSI is a fundamental component of the trend following strategy. Prior to a trend following “long” or “short” signal, the M-RSI must generate a signal in confluence with an OptAlgo cross event. When price crosses over the opt algo its color will change to green, indicating an uptrend. A buy signal will generate should the M-RSI provide a similar indication. The M-RSI portion of the trend following strategy is explained below. When price crosses under the opt algo its color will change to green, indicating a downtrend, and a sell signal becomes eligible. The foundational logic for using the Opt Algo as a trend following strategy is to treat crossovers/crossunders of the Opt Algo as strong trend indications, and trade them.
Steps to generate a trend following long signal:
1: M-RSI extends into oversold territory
2: Price crosses over the OptAlgo
Steps to generate a trend following short signal:
1: M-RSI extends into overbought territory
2: Price crosses under the OptAlgo
Our trend following strategy considers crossovers/crossunders at key market turning points as buy/sell opportunities. This strategy integrates the Mxwll RSI and Mxwll OptAlgo MA to determine entry points in anticipation of trend continuation.
The Mxwll RSI must move below/above the optimized OB/OS level prior to a cross event for a long/short signal to be considered. Entry points for this strategy are marked as "Long" or "Short".
At its core, the OptAlgo trend following strategy tries to enter a trend as close to the origin point as possible. As with any trend following strategy, price may not continue to move in the expected direction following entry, resulting in a losing trade.
AI Reversal Predictions
Our AI reversals strategy uses AI suggested turning points to capitalize on price reversions back towards the OptAlgo. These levels are considered by the AI on the selected days, and entry points at these levels are marked as "LLO" or "SLO".
How AI reversals work
Our AI reversals strategy attempts to trade price reversions back toward the Opt Algo.
These levels are calculated on specific days of the week, but can be traded any day. The internal algorithm determines which HTF highs/lows are most likely to function as tradable support/resistance levels. For instance, if Friday consists of heavy trading activity and high/low prices are tracked/recorded as causing significant support / resistance when tested in the future, the algorithm will consider support and resistance levels created on Friday as future tradable levels.
Additionally, if support/resistance levels created on Wednesday are recorded as weak or unpredictable when traded at in the future, the algorithm will not consider support/resistance levels generated on Thursday as tradable, and will not generate long or shit signals for these levels.
In the background, the AI reversals strategy is tracking success rates at multiple support and resistance levels. The best performers, if there are any, will be considered tradable. A “best performer” is calculated as the raw price move up to a threshold (i.e. 0.5%) that occurs subsequent to a test of the level.
Crash Short
The "Crash Short" strategy prioritizes short positions during retracements of a sell off. A simple yet effective strategy.
How Crash Short Works
The Crash Short strategy uses a customized momentum indicator (similar to ROC, MOM, etc.) to identify strong downside price moves. When our customized momentum indicator gives strong sell indications, the RSI is then referenced to identify an upside retracement. When the RSI exceeds a user-inputted level, a “Crash Short” signal is generated.
What is the customized momentum indicator?
The customized momentum indicator is the RoCR (Rate of Change Ratio). Instead of classic ROC, which is close[current] - close[nPrevious], the RoCR divides the current close by a previous close. This formula creates a ratio that is more normalized than a simple price difference. This ratio is used to determine upside/downside momentum, with values greater than 1 indicating bullish momentum and values less than 1 indicating bearish momentum. The RoCR looks for deviating values to the downside (less than 1) to identify strong selling. From there, once the RSI crosses over an optimized level (such as 35), the indicator will print a sell signal titled "Crash Short".
Predictive Countertrend Channels
Our Predictive Countertrend Channel applies a two-stage recursive filter to smooth data using exponential decay and periodic adjustments for trend extraction. Our counter trend channels aren't directly used for signal processing; however, these channels provide useful visual cues for extended market moves.
Instructions for Optimization
Step 1: Optimize Mxwll OptAlgo
Begin by optimizing the M-Swift and M-Smooth averages for better signal accuracy.
This step simply finds better performing M-Swift and M-Smooth lookbacks. Again, if the strategy is unprofitable you will be notified and from there decide not to use the strategy.
Step 2: Optimize Mxwll RSI
Refine the Mxwll RSI settings to explore potential adjustments in smoothness and signal output. This step aims to evaluate whether these adjustments could improve the accuracy of the signals generated by Mxwll OptAlgo, while being mindful of any potential impacts.
Step 3: Optimize TP/SL
Consider adjusting the Take Profit and Stop Loss settings to potentially manage risk.
Step 4: Optimize Bars Between Trades
Set the number of bars between trades to regulate the frequency of trade executions. This adjustment may help in reducing the risk of overtrading and support a more disciplined trading strategy.
Step 5: Optimize Trade Flip
Adjust the trade flip parameters to potentially improve the management of transitions between long and short positions. This adjustment is intended to help achieve smoother trade executions, though outcomes may vary.
Step 6: Optimize RSI OB/OB Levels
Consider adjusting the overbought (OB) and oversold (OS) RSI levels to explore potential improvements in signal sensitivity. Careful calibration of these levels may help refine the accuracy of trend reversal signals, although results may depend on market conditions.
Finished!
From this point, consider setting alerts to make the most of the Mxwll Opt Algo's potential accuracy.
The effectiveness of the Opt Algo signal output can be evaluated using the "PF" table, which indicates the profit factor score for the strategy. A profit factor (PF) of less than or equal to 1 suggests that the strategy may not be profitable.
Disclaimer
No strategy works on any timeframe on any asset, so, if the Opt Algo underperforms for the asset/timeframe you're analyzing, the Opt Algo PF table lets you know it hasn't been generating accurate signals, in which case you can decide not to use it!
Optimization Disclaimer
Optimization can be tricky. It's helpful to test numerous strategies in aggregate to see if a strategy has potential. Despite this, optimization can cause overfitting. Overfitting occurs when a strategy is too closely fit to the data it's trading. Overfit backtests are deceptively phenomenal. While the historical performance looks great, the future expectancy of the strategy remains unpredictable - an overfit strategy will profit from periods of random price movement which, being random, are irreproducible and cannot be profited from other than their initial occurrence. When a strategy trades random price movement profitably, any and all profit earned can be reduced to chance. Keep this in mind when using the in-built optimization system. Optimization should be kept to a minimum, a tool to point you in the right direction, whether confirming potential or signifying a useless system.
Mxwll OptAlgo is a sophisticated algorithmic trading tool designed to identify potential long and short signals. It leverages an optimized combination of the M-Swift average, M-Smooth average, and M-RSI to fine-tune custom lengths and improve signal accuracy. The Mxwll OptAlgo provides long and short signals across various trading assets and timeframes. Additionally, it features optimized Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) settings to help traders manage risk.
Key Features
- Step-by-Step Complete Optimization: A systematic approach to optimize trading parameters.
- Buy/Sell Signals: Clear indicators for long and short positions.
- Easy to Use: User-friendly interface for seamless trading.
- Predictive counter trend channels
- Integrated trend following system and counter trend trading system
- 3-optimized strategies working cooperatively
- Alerts and auto trading capabilities
How It Works
The Mxwll OptAlgo is comprised of three strategies:
- Trend following using the OptAlgo
- AI Reversal counter trend trading
- Market crash shorting
Mxwll OptAlgo can be used for market analysis and trading similarly to any moving average.
The Mxwll OptAlgo MA is composed of two distinct moving averages to be used for trend following strategies.
M-Swift Average: The M-Swift Average accounts for volume and weights current price movement heavier than older price movement - allowing for improved responsiveness to current price movement. Volume is additionally weighted to the average to determine the significance of the price move and the resulting response of the M-Swift average. The M-Swift average consists of an HVWMA with OBV weighting. The HVWMA is used to create a moving average that adapts to volume, attempting to respond to significant price moves with high volume quicker and significant price moves with low volume slower - which might not be indicative of the start of a strong trend. To further reduce the M-Swift average’s responsiveness to weak volume price moves, the average is weighted with a normalized OBV. With this, the M-Swift moving average uses these two indicators to create a responsive moving average to significant price moves with high volume.
M-Smooth Average: The M-Smooth average consists of a McGinley average.
The McGinley Average is designed to address some of the limitations of traditional moving averages, such as the Simple Moving Average (SMA) or Exponential Moving Average (EMA), by reducing their lag and more accurately reflecting the market's true movements, especially during periods of volatility.
The McGinley Dynamic automatically adjusts its smoothing factor based on market speed. This means it responds more quickly to fast-moving markets and slows down during periods of consolidation, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
Unlike traditional moving averages that have a fixed period and can lag significantly behind fast-moving prices, the McGinley Dynamic adjusts dynamically, which helps to reduce lag and keeps the moving average closer to the price action.
The M-Smooth average uses bar low prices as a series during an uptrend - bar high prices as a series during a downtrend. A cross above the M-Smooth average indicates an uptrend, while a cross below the M-Smooth average indicates a downtrend. When this cross event occurs the M-Smooth average will “flip” from calculating on lows to highs, or highs to lows, contingent on the direction of the trend. The expectation is that a cross event of the M-Smooth average requires a substantial price move and, subsequent to this cross, price will continue to trend in the direction of the cross.
OptAlgo: The OptAlgo is simply the average of the M-Swift average and the M-smooth average.
By combining the M-Swift average and the M-Smooth average, the final output results in an average that slows during ranging markets and quickly adjusts to high volume breakouts and high volume reversals that initiate a trend. Due to the combination, the average will keep up quickly with a trend but remain at an appropriate distance from the current price - requiring a significant counter trend price move to change the direction of the OptAlgo average.
How does the OptAlgo follow trends?
The OptAlgo, comprising the two moving averages above, considers a cross event of the OptAlgo as a change in trend indication. The OptAlgo can be thought of as a moving average that significantly deviates from price. For price to cross the OptAlgo, a substantial price move must occur, and this event is treated as a "strong trend" or "new trend" indication.
M-RSI: The M-RSI is a fundamental component of the trend following strategy. Prior to a trend following “long” or “short” signal, the M-RSI must generate a signal in confluence with an OptAlgo cross event. When price crosses over the opt algo its color will change to green, indicating an uptrend. A buy signal will generate should the M-RSI provide a similar indication. The M-RSI portion of the trend following strategy is explained below. When price crosses under the opt algo its color will change to green, indicating a downtrend, and a sell signal becomes eligible. The foundational logic for using the Opt Algo as a trend following strategy is to treat crossovers/crossunders of the Opt Algo as strong trend indications, and trade them.
Steps to generate a trend following long signal:
1: M-RSI extends into oversold territory
2: Price crosses over the OptAlgo
Steps to generate a trend following short signal:
1: M-RSI extends into overbought territory
2: Price crosses under the OptAlgo
Our trend following strategy considers crossovers/crossunders at key market turning points as buy/sell opportunities. This strategy integrates the Mxwll RSI and Mxwll OptAlgo MA to determine entry points in anticipation of trend continuation.
The Mxwll RSI must move below/above the optimized OB/OS level prior to a cross event for a long/short signal to be considered. Entry points for this strategy are marked as "Long" or "Short".
At its core, the OptAlgo trend following strategy tries to enter a trend as close to the origin point as possible. As with any trend following strategy, price may not continue to move in the expected direction following entry, resulting in a losing trade.
AI Reversal Predictions
Our AI reversals strategy uses AI suggested turning points to capitalize on price reversions back towards the OptAlgo. These levels are considered by the AI on the selected days, and entry points at these levels are marked as "LLO" or "SLO".
How AI reversals work
Our AI reversals strategy attempts to trade price reversions back toward the Opt Algo.
These levels are calculated on specific days of the week, but can be traded any day. The internal algorithm determines which HTF highs/lows are most likely to function as tradable support/resistance levels. For instance, if Friday consists of heavy trading activity and high/low prices are tracked/recorded as causing significant support / resistance when tested in the future, the algorithm will consider support and resistance levels created on Friday as future tradable levels.
Additionally, if support/resistance levels created on Wednesday are recorded as weak or unpredictable when traded at in the future, the algorithm will not consider support/resistance levels generated on Thursday as tradable, and will not generate long or shit signals for these levels.
In the background, the AI reversals strategy is tracking success rates at multiple support and resistance levels. The best performers, if there are any, will be considered tradable. A “best performer” is calculated as the raw price move up to a threshold (i.e. 0.5%) that occurs subsequent to a test of the level.
Crash Short
The "Crash Short" strategy prioritizes short positions during retracements of a sell off. A simple yet effective strategy.
How Crash Short Works
The Crash Short strategy uses a customized momentum indicator (similar to ROC, MOM, etc.) to identify strong downside price moves. When our customized momentum indicator gives strong sell indications, the RSI is then referenced to identify an upside retracement. When the RSI exceeds a user-inputted level, a “Crash Short” signal is generated.
What is the customized momentum indicator?
The customized momentum indicator is the RoCR (Rate of Change Ratio). Instead of classic ROC, which is close[current] - close[nPrevious], the RoCR divides the current close by a previous close. This formula creates a ratio that is more normalized than a simple price difference. This ratio is used to determine upside/downside momentum, with values greater than 1 indicating bullish momentum and values less than 1 indicating bearish momentum. The RoCR looks for deviating values to the downside (less than 1) to identify strong selling. From there, once the RSI crosses over an optimized level (such as 35), the indicator will print a sell signal titled "Crash Short".
Predictive Countertrend Channels
Our Predictive Countertrend Channel applies a two-stage recursive filter to smooth data using exponential decay and periodic adjustments for trend extraction. Our counter trend channels aren't directly used for signal processing; however, these channels provide useful visual cues for extended market moves.
Instructions for Optimization
Step 1: Optimize Mxwll OptAlgo
Begin by optimizing the M-Swift and M-Smooth averages for better signal accuracy.
This step simply finds better performing M-Swift and M-Smooth lookbacks. Again, if the strategy is unprofitable you will be notified and from there decide not to use the strategy.
Step 2: Optimize Mxwll RSI
Refine the Mxwll RSI settings to explore potential adjustments in smoothness and signal output. This step aims to evaluate whether these adjustments could improve the accuracy of the signals generated by Mxwll OptAlgo, while being mindful of any potential impacts.
Step 3: Optimize TP/SL
Consider adjusting the Take Profit and Stop Loss settings to potentially manage risk.
Step 4: Optimize Bars Between Trades
Set the number of bars between trades to regulate the frequency of trade executions. This adjustment may help in reducing the risk of overtrading and support a more disciplined trading strategy.
Step 5: Optimize Trade Flip
Adjust the trade flip parameters to potentially improve the management of transitions between long and short positions. This adjustment is intended to help achieve smoother trade executions, though outcomes may vary.
Step 6: Optimize RSI OB/OB Levels
Consider adjusting the overbought (OB) and oversold (OS) RSI levels to explore potential improvements in signal sensitivity. Careful calibration of these levels may help refine the accuracy of trend reversal signals, although results may depend on market conditions.
Finished!
From this point, consider setting alerts to make the most of the Mxwll Opt Algo's potential accuracy.
The effectiveness of the Opt Algo signal output can be evaluated using the "PF" table, which indicates the profit factor score for the strategy. A profit factor (PF) of less than or equal to 1 suggests that the strategy may not be profitable.
Disclaimer
No strategy works on any timeframe on any asset, so, if the Opt Algo underperforms for the asset/timeframe you're analyzing, the Opt Algo PF table lets you know it hasn't been generating accurate signals, in which case you can decide not to use it!
Optimization Disclaimer
Optimization can be tricky. It's helpful to test numerous strategies in aggregate to see if a strategy has potential. Despite this, optimization can cause overfitting. Overfitting occurs when a strategy is too closely fit to the data it's trading. Overfit backtests are deceptively phenomenal. While the historical performance looks great, the future expectancy of the strategy remains unpredictable - an overfit strategy will profit from periods of random price movement which, being random, are irreproducible and cannot be profited from other than their initial occurrence. When a strategy trades random price movement profitably, any and all profit earned can be reduced to chance. Keep this in mind when using the in-built optimization system. Optimization should be kept to a minimum, a tool to point you in the right direction, whether confirming potential or signifying a useless system.
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