Citigroup Q3 Earnings Preview: Efficiency Gains Under the Microscope

Citigroup C will kick off the big-bank earnings season, reporting its third-quarter 2025 results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 14. Analysts are projecting a consensus EPS of $1.73, which represents a 15% jump from last year. Revenue is expected to come in around $21 billion. Shares have climbed 32% year to date and recently hit a 52-week high on September 23, helped by growing confidence that Citi's multi-year overhaul is finally translating into real operating leverage.

Citi's efficiency push, designed to simplify operations and improve returns, will again take center stage. The question this quarter is whether the leaner organization that CEO Jane Fraser spent the past two years building is delivering the efficiencies investors were promised. The market will be looking for signs of cost discipline, fewer moving parts, and a business mix that keeps returns trending upward even as revenue growth levels off. Management has said the focus from here is execution and margin expansion.

Citi is also expected to see a lift in revenue from a healthier market backdrop. The quarter saw a rebound in M&A activity and robust capital markets, and higher volatility across rates and commodities. If those trends hold, they could provide a meaningful boost to revenue.

Still, investors will monitor asset quality and capital return. Loan-loss provisions and reserve builds will be important to credit quality as the job market shows early signs of cooling. Any uptick in delinquencies could quickly temper the optimism around Citi's turnaround.