XTB Shares Get “Buy” Upgrade Despite Worst Financial Results Since 2022

mBank upgraded its rating on XTB shares to “buy” from “sell” and raised its price target to 87 zlotys from 74 zlotys, according to Bloomberg data. The shift follows the Polish broker's third-quarter earnings, which showed profitability per lot falling to 152 zloty from 229 zloty in the second quarter.

The preliminary results presented by the broker last week were the weakest since late 2022. The latest recommendation, however, focuses on positive projections for profitability per lot and a significant increase in the client base in October.

XTB Upgraded to Buy as Analyst Raises Price Target Despite Weak Quarter

mBank's analyst, Mikołaj Lemańczyk, now expects XTB to post net income of 678.9 million zlotys in 2025, about 9 percent below the market consensus. His 2026 forecast of 711 million zlotys sits 24 percent under analyst expectations.

XTB reported third-quarter net profit of 53.2 million zlotys, well short of the 154 million zlotys consensus estimate. Revenue dropped 20 percent year-over-year to 375.8 million zlotys. The company attributed the weakness to predictable market trends and narrow trading ranges that created favorable conditions for clients but squeezed the broker's market-making results.

XTB shares price chart. Source: Stooq.pl

“This led to trends that could be predicted with higher probability than in the case of larger directional market moves, which created favorable conditions for transactions concluded in a narrow market range,” the company stated in its report. “In such cases, we generally observe a larger number of profitable transactions for clients, which results in a decrease in results or losses from market making.”

Volatility Remains Key Variable

Chief Executive Omar Arnaout said management focuses on factors within its control, namely client acquisition and product development. The company added more than 100,000 users to its investment app in October alone, the highest monthly increase in its history. Total clients reached approximately 2 million by late October, with half classified as active.Paweł Szejko, CFO and Member of The Board at XTB

“With such a client base and high volatility, nothing would prevent XTB from generating 500 million zlotys in net profit,” said Paweł Szejko, the broker's Chief Financial Officer. “Under conditions like in the third quarter – low volatility – this was not possible. Our clients were making money, and we were losing on market making, which was reflected in the profitability per lot level.”

Lemańczyk noted that exceptional quarters will likely offset weak ones going forward. If market conditions in the third quarter had matched those in the first quarter of 2025, XTB would have recorded net profit closer to 250 million zloty, he estimated.

Under first-quarter 2024 conditions, profit could have approached 450 million zloty.

Marketing Budget Set for Further Growth

Management plans to maintain aggressive marketing spending to compete for leadership positions in key markets. Arnaout indicated the 2026 marketing budget could increase 40 to 50 percent from current levels, though headcount growth will be tightly controlled. Omar Arnaout, CEO of XTB; Source: LinkedIn

“There is no other way to compete in the most important markets for a leadership position,” Arnaout said.

The company expects to launch options and cryptocurrencies by year-end or early 2026. Cryptocurrencies may be offered through a Cyprus license, which would restrict marketing communications in Poland.

XTB's nominal trading volume rose 61 percent year-over-year in the third quarter despite the profitability squeeze. Maciej Marcinowski, an analyst at Trigon brokerage, said clients proved even more “caloric” than expected, though the mix of instruments traded affects margins significantly.

The broker's shares fell about 4 percent following the quarterly results and are down 27 percent from their May 13 peak. If the recommendation proves accurate, they could rebound by almost 30 percent and return to the area of their previous all-time high.