BIG PICTURE UPDATE:
- We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024.
- Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims
- Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE
- With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now)
SCENARIOS:
- SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower [this is the ideal scenario]
- SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower
_____________________________
- Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)
- We are not yet in a recession but most likely are headed towards one some time between Nov 2023 - April 2024.
- Stocks will peak within 1-2 moths of a spike in Jobless Claims
- Yields will continue to rise until something bad happens to the economy and the Fed is forced to do QE
- With yields rising, they will take the Dollar higher with them (which is why I'm expecting XAU to head lower for now)
SCENARIOS:
- SCENARIO #1: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes) causing gold to peak by Wed and begin moving lower [this is the ideal scenario]
- SCENARIO #2: Jolts + ADP come in as expected (supporting more rate hikes), yet gold will stubbornly rally/move sideways; in this case NFP will most likely be the launching point of this move lower
_____________________________
- Scenario#1 is looking more likely at the moment. There are 2 orders I'm interested in placing for this trade (if the 1st fails, 2nd should work)
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.
Haftungsausschluss
Die Informationen und Veröffentlichungen sind nicht als Finanz-, Anlage-, Handels- oder andere Arten von Ratschlägen oder Empfehlungen gedacht, die von TradingView bereitgestellt oder gebilligt werden, und stellen diese nicht dar. Lesen Sie mehr in den Nutzungsbedingungen.