Theory of Reflexivity

22. Juli 2013

I have been using this as a trading model for awhile. Its not perfect but markets act in cycles and those cycles are always acting towards equilibrium. The forces causing markets to downtrend can be seen as more a social problem than an economic problem. Upon hearing the news that Abe Shinzo had one the elections in Japan I shorted USD/JPY, I knew that given the volatility of this pair most economic news spurs spikes, these spikes are mostly bearish and leads to new trends. From POINT A to POINT B is the initial kick sending the pair into a new bearish cycle. This cycle could be short or it could be prolonged.

Read more here: gwu.edu/~umpleby/recent_papers/2007_SRBS_Reflexivity_Theory.pdf