Please refer to my last few postings on USDJPY to get an idea where I am coming from.
Before this week, I had regarded the short term rally from 107.60 as just a technical rebound before one more final fall to the long term target/support at 107.00-30. But this current sharp rally on Friday (22 April), resulting in very bullish Daily and Weekly bars, tells me that the major long term low has been established at 107.60. This is the big picture wave(4). The big picture wave(3) was 125.80, and the corresponding wave(5) could well trade above 140.00 over the next 1 year or so!
In the short term, this rally should continue to around 113.00, even into the 113.80-114.80 resistance zone as highlighted in the chart. But it is then likely to stage a significant retracement to 110.00-111.00 region, before the next bigger rally.
Several key events occur this week, namely the FOMC and BOJ meetings, on 27-28 April. Although Fed is not expected to hike in this meeting, the market will be keen to know what is the chance for a June rate hike. The current rally in USDJPY has been attributed to rumors yesterday that BOJ was going to discuss negative rates for loans to banks. Well, the current momentum and speculation before BOJ meeting may carry USDJPY further up to the said resistance levels, from which any disappointment with BOJ could then result in that retracement to 110.00-111.00.
Before this week, I had regarded the short term rally from 107.60 as just a technical rebound before one more final fall to the long term target/support at 107.00-30. But this current sharp rally on Friday (22 April), resulting in very bullish Daily and Weekly bars, tells me that the major long term low has been established at 107.60. This is the big picture wave(4). The big picture wave(3) was 125.80, and the corresponding wave(5) could well trade above 140.00 over the next 1 year or so!
In the short term, this rally should continue to around 113.00, even into the 113.80-114.80 resistance zone as highlighted in the chart. But it is then likely to stage a significant retracement to 110.00-111.00 region, before the next bigger rally.
Several key events occur this week, namely the FOMC and BOJ meetings, on 27-28 April. Although Fed is not expected to hike in this meeting, the market will be keen to know what is the chance for a June rate hike. The current rally in USDJPY has been attributed to rumors yesterday that BOJ was going to discuss negative rates for loans to banks. Well, the current momentum and speculation before BOJ meeting may carry USDJPY further up to the said resistance levels, from which any disappointment with BOJ could then result in that retracement to 110.00-111.00.
