Lack of enthusiasm, Deutsche Bank and Margin Debt

13. Juli 2016

A divergence between the volume and the value of the index indicates a lack of enthusiasm with this new top. This ocurrs just before August, which is a typically bearish month, and under the systemic risk posed by Deutsche Bank. Moreover, NYSE Margin Debt chart reached a peak some months ago (see advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPX.php). In my opinion, there is no substantial reason to expect a consolidation of the index above 2150, so be careful, because maybe we are listening to the swan song of the global financial market.

3. Nov. 2016

Anmerkung

Prediction successful. After a detour above 2140, the index is back to levels that reflect the uncertainty and the long-term impasse in world economy.